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The much discussed, anticipated, and feared realignment of NCAA football conferences began last week as Nebraska became a member of the Big Ten, Colorado bolted for the Pac-10, and Boise State moved from the WAC to the Mountain West.
The first move officially was Colorado's on Thursday, though this was probably announced because the Nebraska move was all but finalized at the time. With the Big 12 fragmenting, the Buffaloes needed a stable home and the Pac-10 was willing to offer it.
Nebraska gives the Big Ten 12 members now, which could be considered a complete conference. Of course the speculation the last several months has been about "mega-conferences" of 16 members. To gain four more members, the Big Ten would likely need to raid the Big East, with Pitt, Syracuse, and Rutgers possible candidates; as always, Notre Dame is the prize that the conference is seeking.
Next move: Big Ten...or Pac 10?
So does the Big Ten go above 12? If they get Notre Dame, giving them 13, then they'll go hard after the Big East teams. If not, they may stay at 12 with two divisions like the SEC and the Big 12.
Concerning the Big 12, with Colorado and Nebraska leaving there are only ten teams left. The conference could survive in that form, removing the idea of "divisions." But the Pac-10, now with 11 teams, is certainly going to grab another team, maybe more.
Utah has been mentioned as a likely target, but other rumors have the Pac-10 raiding the Big 12 further, trying for Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. This gives them 16 teams, 8 in the "coastal" division, and 8 (the 6 from the Big 12, plus the Arizona teams) in the "inland" division.
Where will Kansas play basketball?
If that happens, the Big 12 is left with only 5 teams: Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Missouri, and Baylor. Obviously this destroys the conference, and a lot of these teams won't have many options. A 16-team Big Ten might still want several of these teams, but if not, would they disperse to places like the WAC, Mountain West, and MAC?
Or could the Big 12 raid those leagues in order to keep a more geographically sound conference? Conference USA has 12 teams, many within the Big 12 area (Tulsa, Memphis, SMU, Houston, Rice). The Big 12 could remain a 12-team conference if it wanted. Other rumors (ridiculous in my book) have the remaining teams going to the Big East, which already has 16 teams in basketball. A 20-team basketball conference, stretching into Kansas? I don't know.
Texas is the new prize
The Pac-10's power grab sounds unrealistic to me, too, though more and more reports are giving it strong odds. But clearly Texas is the new wild card in the whole equation. If Texas stays in the Big 12, the Big 12 stays viable, regardless of any other defections. The Big Ten is allegedly interested in getting Texas, and months-old rumors suggested the SEC would try for Texas, Texas A&M, and the Oklahoma schools for its 16-team dream configuration. So the Longhorns will have to decide which of four possible BCS conferences they want to be part of.
Texas' decision will determine how all the other conferences form. The Pac-10 needs at least one more team. If they get Texas they'll get the other Big 12 teams; if not, they'll probably get Utah and stay at 12. If the Big Ten gets Texas they'll fill out to 16 teams with Texas A&M and two other teams. The SEC would go to 16 with two Texas and two Oklahoma teams. If Texas remains in the Big 12, that league might try to fill back out to 12 teams with perhaps SMU and Houston.
Boise State, Mountain West hope for BCS bid
The Mountain West was already a meager conference with just nine teams; adding Boise State gives them ten teams and makes them a lot stronger, something that was needed in the face of the other moves being made. Just a week ago the conference said it wasn't going to expand; their rapid about-face shows that they want to keep their core football group of BYU, Utah, and TCU intact.
If they do hold together, the conference could make a strong argument for an automatic BCS bid. But if several conferences expand to 16 teams that argument may look weak, and indeed, the BCS system might dissolve if the mega-conferences have other ideas about how to decide a national champ.
Longhorns holds the cards
Reportedly, the powers that be in the Texas system are meeting next week. By mid-week at the latest we should know for certain if Texas is headed to the Pac-10, or elsewhere. Then the real fun begins.
Conference Realignment Cancelled: Texas A&M's SEC end-around saves the Big 12
Dan Beebe has been working fervently to save his conference, the Big 12, which has only 10 members left and was in danger of having only 5, or zero. Today Texas announced it would be staying put instead of bolting for the Pac-10. But the real credit goes to Texas A&M.
The teams that were to become Pac-10 members were like dominoes waiting to fall.
Texas Tech was ready to go if the others went.
Oklahoma State was sure to go wherever Oklahoma went.
Oklahoma had committed to going wherever Texas went.
Texas was ready to go to the Pac-10, as long as Texas A&M came along, too.
But the Aggies didn't want to go to the Pac-10. They even made overtures to the SEC, since they would need a home if the Big 12 dissolved. And that was enough to kill the whole deal.
Without A&M along, Texas wouldn't go; to kill any possible SEC deal with Texas A&M, they decided to stay in the Big 12, and A&M quickly agreed. Since Texas stayed, Oklahoma stays. Since Oklahoma stays, Oklahoma State stays. And Texas Tech, too, of course.
Of course Beebe offerred Texas a great deal—he had to. And of course he did his best to sugar-coat the league's revenue numbers as much as possible to reassure everyone involved that the Big 12 will be generating a lot of money for those staying. All of these things were what any commissioner would do.
In the end, though, it was the Aggie end-around that saved the conference. There should be a lot of (temporary) A&M fans at Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Iowa State, and Baylor.
Now, the Pac-10 (with 11 members, to the Big 12's 10 and the Big Ten's 12), is almost certainly going to add another team, probably Utah, whom they were supposed to be going after in the first place before they got Colorado.
With Utah, they'll have 12 teams and have a conference championship game, which is probably the exact amount of financial transfer that will go from the Big 12 to the Pac-10. Per school, the difference will probably be a wash.
The Mountain West would end up roughly the same, gaining Boise State while losing Utah. The only league that definitely comes out ahead financially is the Big Ten, who will have a championship game, which are evidently the most coveted thing in college football today, at least as far as the league commissioners are concerned. Will the Big Ten court more members? I doubt it. It feels like it's time to stop.
The era of mega-conferences may have to wait. And Notre Dame—perhaps having dodged the conference bullet once again—remains safely independent until the next round of insanity strikes.
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