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The Saints might still rank #1 in the Strength power rating but they were very lucky to get to the Super Bowl. Minnesota had many chances to win the game, and only the Viking curse prevented them from winning (and then losing in the Super Bowl, of course). Unlike New Orleans' overtime win, Indianapolis had an easier time but still had to mount a decent-sized comeback to improve to 16-2.
NFC Championship results:
New Orleans 31, Minnesota 28 (OT)
AFC Championship results:
Indianapolis 30, New York Jets 17
The current Strength ratings:
num Team record rating offense defense
1. New Orleans 15-3 11.10 32.95 [ 1] 21.84 [ 16]
2. New England 10-7 9.59 27.63 [ 4] 18.03 [ 5]
3. Minnesota 13-5 8.72 28.52 [ 3] 19.79 [ 11]
4. NY Jets 11-8 8.03 22.46 [ 14] 14.42 [ 1]
5. Baltimore 10-8 7.82 23.77 [ 12] 15.95 [ 3]
6. Indianapolis 16-2 7.34 26.26 [ 7] 18.92 [ 8]
As mentioned, New Orleans still ranks #1, with the top offense and a just-average defense. Indianapolis is more balanced, with a well-above-average offense and defense. And of course these results include games where teams basically didn't try to win—which means that Indianapolis' losses where they rested players are factored in. We'll take those out and see if it makes a difference in our Super Bowl Preview:
Super Bowl XLIV: Indianapolis Colts (16-2) vs. New Orleans Saints (15-3)
Vegas line/spread: Colts by 5 1/2
Strength Power Rating Projection: New Orleans 30, Indianapolis 27
Game-comparison win %: New Orleans 58.8%
New Orleans has had the #1 ranked offense all year, while their defense has been about average for the league. Minnesota is in the same boat to a lesser degree, with a better defense and not-quite-as-potent offense. But on any given day Bret Favre and Adrian Peterson are just as powerful—and more balanced—than the Saints' Brees-led passing attack. In some ways the Saints are reminiscent of the 2007 New England Patriots, though not as dominant on offense or nearly as good on defense.
New Orleans came back strong during the playoff season after a 3-game skid. At least, in the Arizona game; the Minnesota win was far less impressive. Indianapolis was consistently good in beating both Baltimore and the Jets after their 2-game skid.
Averaging the two playoff games for each team—when both teams were definitely trying their best to win—yields a 3.5 point advantage for Indianapolis. The Colts played two of their best games of the year, and easily their best defensive game against Baltimore. New Orleans was great against Arizona on both offense and defense but the Minnesota game showed they couldn't keep the intensity up. If they can play like they did against the Cardinals—or in earlier games against Philadelphia (48-22, game 2), Tampa Bay (38-7, game 10) and New England (38-17, game 11)—they'll win, no matter what Indianapolis does.
Though the Strength power rating favors New Orleans by 3 (closer to 4, really) points, removing the two games that Indianapolis "threw" narrows the gap to less than a single point. Additionally, Indianapolis just faced the best defense in the NFL and scored 30 points; now they'll be facing the 16th best defense. It seems that even if it turns into a high-scoring battle, Indianapolis should be able to keep up.
Final Analysis
Both teams have great quarterbacks, and although the deification of Payton Manning is getting a bit puke-worthy, he's the best horse in this show. The Colts will probably be without Dwight Freeney (at least, he won't be in top form) and that means that New Orleans' offense will likely be effective.
Like last week, I'm going with the fact that Indianapolis has managed to win every game they've tried to win. Super Bowl 44 should be high-scoring, and close, but ultimately finish in the Colts' favor.
Prediction: Indianapolis 38, New Orleans 35
The History of American football, a spectator sport in the United States, can be traced to early versions of rugby football. Both games have their origin in varieties of football played in the United Kingdom in the mid-19th century, in which a ball is kicked at a goal and/or run over a line.
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Posted by: Saints 56 Colts 17 | February 03, 2010 at 11:33 PM
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Posted by: saints fan | February 03, 2010 at 11:34 PM