With eight teams left, here is the current NFL power rating (Strength only):
rnk Team record rating offense defense
1. New Orleans 13-3 10.48 32.64 [ 1] 22.16 [ 18]
2. New England 10-7 9.69 27.60 [ 5] 17.90 [ 5]
3. Baltimore 10-7 8.74 24.79 [ 9] 16.04 [ 3]
4. NY Jets 10-7 8.45 22.78 [ 14] 14.32 [ 1]
5. Dallas 12-5 7.85 22.39 [ 16] 14.53 [ 2]
6. Minnesota 12-4 7.19 27.94 [ 4] 20.74 [ 14]
7. Green Bay 11-6 6.85 28.89 [ 2] 22.03 [ 17]
8. San Diego 13-3 6.67 27.97 [ 3] 21.29 [ 15]
9. Indianapolis 14-2 5.83 25.83 [ 8] 20.00 [ 10]
10. Philadephia 11-6 5.05 27.00 [ 6] 21.95 [ 16]
11. Atlanta 9-7 4.75 24.10 [ 11] 19.34 [ 9]
12. Carolina 8-8 3.66 20.68 [ 18] 17.01 [ 4]
13. Houston 9-7 1.79 24.03 [ 12] 22.23 [ 19]
14. Pittsburgh 9-7 1.78 22.48 [ 15] 20.70 [ 13]
15. Miami 7-9 1.34 24.25 [ 10] 22.91 [ 21]
16. Cincinnati 10-7 0.53 19.06 [ 21] 18.52 [ 7]
17. Denver 8-8 0.29 20.47 [ 19] 20.17 [ 11]
18. Arizona 11-6 0.27 23.28 [ 13] 23.01 [ 22]
The teams are paired by color that play each other in the next round.
As we can see, the biggest discrepancy is between New Orleans and Arizona, two teams with strong offenses but mediocre to poor defense. Arizona is coming off a huge offensive performance in their win over Green Bay, with Kurt Warner looking better than ever, while New Orleans has dropped three straight games (the last few while "resting" their key players), so the gap might not be as wide as it seems here.
Vegas spread/line: New Orleans by 7
Power Rating Projection: New Orleans 35, Arizona 23
By Percentage: New Orleans 76%
Baltimore at Indianapolis is the next biggest gap, with the Colts the underdog despite the best record in the NFL. Their rating is also compromised by their two losses, which were also rest-induced. Still, Baltimore is favored by the numbers, even with home field added. It's probably best to exclude data from the last two weeks of the season—in which case the Colts are a 4 point favorite—but I like picking the upset.
Vegas spread/line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2
Power Rating Projection: Baltimore 22, Indianapolis 21
By Percentage: Baltimore 51%
New York Jets at San Diego: The next level inside the perfectly nested matchups pits the Jets against the Chargers in the other AFC battle. Unlike the other teams in the NFL with great records, San Diego actually won their last few games. Here, it looks like the Jets' great defense not quite overcoming the Chargers' strong offense on San Diego's home field.
Vegas Spread/line: San Diego by 7 1/2
Power Rating Projection: San Diego 22, New York Jets 21
By Percentage: San Diego 51%
Dallas at Minnesota: The best game of the weeked, and closest in record, will pit another strong offense (Vikings) vs. another great defense (Dallas). Home field edge decides the favorite here.
Vegas spread/line: Minnesota by 3
Power Rating Projection: Minnesota 22, Dallas 20
By Percentage: Minnesota 54%
Chance to win Super Bowl, by team
Using the game-rating comparison system—and without looking at all possible pairings, just using the most likely next opponent—here are the % likelihood of advancement for each team:
Team % to win Playoff Conf. champ Super Bowl
New Orleans 76% 48% 26%
Arizona 24% 7% 2%
Minnesota 54% 24% 11.5%
Dallas 46% 21% 10.5%
Indianapolis 49% 26% 12%
Baltimore 51% 26% 14%
San Diego 51% 23% 11%
NY Jets 49% 25% 13%
So basically New Orleans is well out in front, with 6 other teams all having about the same chance. But the Saints' offensive explosiveness proabably overrates them in the Strength ratings, while Indianapolis has yet to lose a game they've tried to win.
Head-to-head, by picking winners only, New Orleans defeats Minnesota, while San Diego barely edges Baltimore due to home field advantage, and the Saints win the Super Bowl.
But when it's narrowed to four teams we'll take a closer look, including game-by-game performance charts, to decide which stats are accurately affecting the teams.
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