SportsRatings: College Football

2010 Conference Championship Previews: Saints vs. Vikings; Jets vs. Colts

After a divisional playoff round that saw three blowouts, the two conference regular-season champs (New Orleans, Indianapolis) are alive along with the NFC#2 (Minnesota) and one AFC wild card (New York Jets).

NFC Divisional Playoff Results

New Orleans 45, Arizona 14
Minnesota 34, Dallas 3

AFC Divisional Playoff Results

Indianapolis 20, Baltimore 3
New York Jets 17, San Diego 14

Here are the current Strength power rating standings:

num  Team                       record  rating   offense       defense
  1. New Orleans                 14-3    11.36   33.10 [  1]   21.73 [ 16]
  2. New England                 10-7     9.72   27.69 [  4]   17.97 [  5]
  3. NY Jets                     11-7     8.73   22.56 [ 14]   13.82 [  1]
  4. Minnesota                   13-4     8.65   28.50 [  3]   19.84 [ 11]
  5. Baltimore                   10-8     7.81   23.77 [ 12]   15.96 [  3]
  6. Green Bay                   11-6     6.75   28.85 [  2]   22.09 [ 17]
  7. Indianapolis                15-2     6.74   25.70 [  8]   18.96 [  9]
  8. San Diego                   13-4     6.08   27.30 [  5]   21.22 [ 15]
  9. Dallas                      12-6     6.07   21.32 [ 17]   15.25 [  2]
 10. Atlanta                      9-7     4.70   24.06 [ 11]   19.35 [ 10]

New Orleans ranks #1 as they have for most of the season, with Minnesota coming in at #4. The Jets rank considerably higher than the Colts, who are dragged down by their two "rest-the-starters" losses. We'll take those out in our preview of that game and see if it makes the difference.

Here's our rundown of the conference championships:

NFC: New Orleans Saints (14-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)

Vegas line/spread: Saints by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating Projection: New Orleans 33, Minnesota 27
Game-comparison win %: New Orleans 61.5%

New Orleans has had the #1 ranked offense all year, while their defense has been about average for the league. Minnesota is in the same boat to a lesser degree, with a better defense and not-quite-as-potent offense. But on any given day Bret Favre and Adrian Peterson are just as powerful—and more balanced—than the Saints' Brees-led passing attack. In some ways the Saints are reminiscent of the 2007 New England Patriots, though not as dominant on offense or nearly as good on defense.

Game performance charts

New Orleans definitely hit a skid near the end of the season, as they were still trying to seal the top seed in their first two losses—including an embarrassing overtime loss to Tampa Bay at home—and had several close calls before that. Their final loss can be discounted, but the overall trend for the season wasn't good. Much like New England in 2007, the first 2/3 of the season is where they shined.

They came back strong in their playoff win, though, looking like the Saints of the early season, and playing one of thir best games. Of course, it's hard to grade New Orleans' offense against a Cardinal defense that gave up 45 points the game before, but the Saints' defense did a good job.

The Vikings' last game was just as good or better, though, making the game a tossup. In fact the Vikes' last two games—the 44-7 romp over the Giants and the 34-3 crushing of Dallas—are their best efforts of the season. While the Giants had nothing to play for, Dallas certainly did, and both the Viking offense and defense had a fantastic game.

The Strength ratings have New Orleans a good six point favorite, and discounting the Saints' final game makes it and even touchdown. But comparison playoff games reverses that, and even adding in home field advantage doesn't make up for it.

What a choice: Brees and Bush vs. Favre and Peterson. Both Minnesota's offense and defense played their season's best recently, so I'm taking experience and intangibles over home field advantage and picking the upset.

Prediction: Minnesota 27, New Orleans 24

AFC: Indianapolis Colts (15-2) vs. New York Jets (11-7)

Vegas line/spread: Colts by 7 1/2
Strength Power Rating Projection: Indianapolis 20,  New York 19
Game-comparison win %: Indianapolis 51%

The Colts bounced back after two rest-game losses, while the Jets edged another playoff team to stay alive. Like Minnesota, the Jets have the "story" after coach Rex Ryan called him team the favorite to win the Super Bowl despite being a wildcard; Joe Namath predicted a win over the Colts, over four decades after his most famous pick; and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez is getting more attention than any quarterback this side of Bret Favre. The Jets even beat the Colts, 29-15, last month.

Game Performance Charts

That win by the Jets was one of the Colts' rest games, though. Take those games out and no one has defeated the Colts when they played at full strength. Peyton Manning won't be on the sidelines for the second half of this game. Averaging those games out of the Strength power rating and the Colts gain nearly 3 points.

Even with that, though, they aren't huge favorites by the numbers. The Jets rank higher despite a stretch in which they lost six out of seven games. The Colts have been winning by a little, not a lot, and their defense as often as their offense has made the difference. The last game was a case in point as they held Baltimore to a field goal.

The Jets resurgence from 4-6 to playoff bound was defense-led, too. Despite the attention given to the talented but still green Sanchez, the Jet defense has been consistently strong the last eight games. The offense is erratic though, despite the emergence of the other great Jet rookie, Shonne Green, in the playoff season.

Comparing playoff performances the Colts have to be the favorite at home. Sanchez will be a great quarterback one day but Manning is among the best right now, and his team hasn't lost with him in the game.

Prediction: Indianapolis 20, New York Jets 10

NFL Playoff projections - Divisionals (final eight teams)

With eight teams left, here is the current NFL power rating (Strength only):

rnk  Team                       record  rating   offense       defense
  1. New Orleans                 13-3    10.48   32.64 [  1]   22.16 [ 18]
  2. New England                 10-7     9.69   27.60 [  5]   17.90 [  5]
  3. Baltimore                   10-7     8.74   24.79 [  9]   16.04 [  3]
  4. NY Jets                     10-7     8.45   22.78 [ 14]   14.32 [  1]
  5. Dallas                      12-5     7.85   22.39 [ 16]   14.53 [  2]
  6. Minnesota                   12-4     7.19   27.94 [  4]   20.74 [ 14]
  7. Green Bay                   11-6     6.85   28.89 [  2]   22.03 [ 17]
  8. San Diego                   13-3     6.67   27.97 [  3]   21.29 [ 15]
  9. Indianapolis                14-2     5.83   25.83 [  8]   20.00 [ 10]
 10. Philadephia                 11-6     5.05   27.00 [  6]   21.95 [ 16]
 11. Atlanta                      9-7     4.75   24.10 [ 11]   19.34 [  9]
 12. Carolina                     8-8     3.66   20.68 [ 18]   17.01 [  4]
 13. Houston                      9-7     1.79   24.03 [ 12]   22.23 [ 19]
 14. Pittsburgh                   9-7     1.78   22.48 [ 15]   20.70 [ 13]
 15. Miami                        7-9     1.34   24.25 [ 10]   22.91 [ 21]
 16. Cincinnati                  10-7     0.53   19.06 [ 21]   18.52 [  7]
 17. Denver                       8-8     0.29   20.47 [ 19]   20.17 [ 11]
 18. Arizona                     11-6     0.27   23.28 [ 13]   23.01 [ 22]

The teams are paired by color that play each other in the next round.

As we can see, the biggest discrepancy is between New Orleans and Arizona, two teams with strong offenses but mediocre to poor defense. Arizona is coming off a huge offensive performance in their win over Green Bay, with Kurt Warner looking better than ever, while New Orleans has dropped three straight games (the last few while "resting" their key players), so the gap might not be as wide as it seems here.
Vegas spread/line: New Orleans by 7
Power Rating Projection: New Orleans 35, Arizona 23
By Percentage: New Orleans 76%

Baltimore at Indianapolis is the next biggest gap, with the Colts the underdog despite the best record in the NFL. Their rating is also compromised by their two losses, which were also rest-induced. Still, Baltimore is favored by the numbers, even with home field added. It's probably best to exclude data from the last two weeks of the season—in which case the Colts are a 4 point favorite—but I like picking the upset.
Vegas spread/line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2
Power Rating Projection: Baltimore 22, Indianapolis 21
By Percentage: Baltimore 51%

New York Jets at San Diego: The next level inside the perfectly nested matchups pits the Jets against the Chargers in the other AFC battle. Unlike the other teams in the NFL with great records, San Diego actually won their last few games. Here, it looks like the Jets' great defense not quite overcoming the Chargers' strong offense on San Diego's home field.
Vegas Spread/line: San Diego by 7 1/2
Power Rating Projection: San Diego 22, New York Jets 21
By Percentage: San Diego 51%

Dallas at Minnesota: The best game of the weeked, and closest in record, will pit another strong offense (Vikings) vs. another great defense (Dallas). Home field edge decides the favorite here.
Vegas spread/line: Minnesota by 3
Power Rating Projection: Minnesota 22, Dallas 20
By Percentage: Minnesota 54%

Chance to win Super Bowl, by team

Using the game-rating comparison system—and without looking at all possible pairings, just using the most likely next opponent—here are the % likelihood of advancement for each team:

Team        % to win Playoff     Conf. champ      Super Bowl
New Orleans            76%           48%             26%
Arizona                24%            7%              2%
Minnesota              54%           24%             11.5%
Dallas                 46%           21%             10.5%
Indianapolis           49%           26%             12%
Baltimore              51%           26%             14%
San Diego              51%           23%             11%
NY Jets                49%           25%             13%

So basically New Orleans is well out in front, with 6 other teams all having about the same chance. But  the Saints' offensive explosiveness proabably overrates them in the Strength ratings, while Indianapolis has yet to lose a game they've tried to win. 

Head-to-head, by picking winners only, New Orleans defeats Minnesota, while San Diego barely edges Baltimore due to home field advantage, and the Saints win the Super Bowl.

But when it's narrowed to four teams we'll take a closer look, including game-by-game performance charts, to decide which stats are accurately affecting the teams.

What Oklahoma, Iowa, and Texas learned this season: Have a backup quarterback who isn't a freshman

Everyone knows you need a backup quarterback, just in case. But some pretty big teams were caught with their pants down when they needed a backup to play and had to call upon a freshman, and it cost three teams their national title hopes in 2009.

First, Oklahoma. The Sooners were surprised when Sam Bradford came back after winning the Heisman in 2008, and they were still stuck with just a redshirt freshman as backup. Of course, we all know what happened: Bradford was knocked out of the very first game with BYU and Landry Jones was unable to guide the team to victory.

In a year with five undefeated teams, that meant that their national title hopes were already gone, but for argument's sake they were still alive at the time. Bradford was still out when they lost to Miami, pretty much putting the nail in the coffin. When Bradford was knocked out for good against Texas (their third loss, by a total of five points), it was the end by any stretch of the imagination.

How good was Oklahoma? Among the very best teams in the country, according to power ratings that allow margin of victory. Certainly their early losses bear this out: by 1, 1, and 3 points all to top 25 teams. With Bradford healthy everything could have been different, but what if they'd had an experienced backup? Jones did well at times but was no Sam Bradford. If a replacement somewhere in between the two were available, could they have made it to the national championship game instead of Texas?

The first three games were certainly winnable, as was the 7-point loss at Nebraska. The Sooners were beaten badly by Texas Tech, but if they'd come in undefeated it might have been different. Probably not, but maybe. So with an experienced backup who was ready to play, Oklahoma goes 12-1, possibly.

Next, Iowa. Unlike the Sooners, Iowa had no national title aspirations at the start of this year. Even a Big Ten title seemed unlikely given their road schedule. But once they were 9-0 under Ricky Stanzi, anything seemed possible. Stanzi had thrown more than his share of interceptions but always led the team back.

So it's not surprising that the only time he failed to lead them back was when he was knocked out of the game against Northwestern. The Hawks lost by 7, then lost in overtime *at* Ohio State, both times playing with their backup, redshirt freshman James Vandenberg. Given that Texas and Alabama would be locked into the the BCS championship game, the lack of an effective backup didn't cost Iowa a shot at the national title. But it did cost them the Rose Bowl.

Last year Stanzi took over from Jake Christiansen, who promptly transferred when he lost his job. They converted another candidate to wide receiver. The Hawkeyes were left with a redshirt freshman as backup. And coming in against Northwestern, he couldn't handle it. He did much better against Ohio State but still threw 3 interceptions. A seasoned backup certainly could have been the difference in an overtime game.

Now we've seen two cases where a freshman quarterback had to unexpectedly play in a game, and couldn't pull it off. The biggest case is the BCS title game.

Texas relied more on Colt McCoy this season that almost any team relied on their quarterback. So you'd think they'd have a decent backup in case something happened to him? You'd guess wrong. Clearly it's hard for teams to keep a good backup around: if he's any good, he's off somewhere where he can start. Good example: Jevan Snead, originally at Texas in 2006, later the starter for Mississippi. Like Iowa, they converted one of their quarterbacks (John Chiles) to a receiver. That left Garrett Gilbert—a true freshman—thrust into action in the biggest game Texas has played in decades.

Needless to say, it changed the game dramatically. Texas was in control very early on, and they quickly lost that control. The play at the end of the half gave Alabama a touchdown; take that away and Texas is winning late in the game instead of trying to catch up. Gilbert played horrendously at the beginning, then showed signs of brilliance that bodes well for next season, and near the end made some true freshman mistakes just when the Longhorns were back in the game.

With these high-profile cases staring them in the face, it would seem incumbent upon programs to make sure they have a non-freshman backup quarterback. But like I said, that's getting harder and harder. Iowa has more of an excuse: Stanzi was a junior, and few QBs want to be stuck behind someone who is going to occupy the spot long. Bradford was also a junior but clearly gone to the NFL after this season. McCoy is the most puzzling case: a senior, and crucial to both the passing and ground game, his loss transforms the team. Mack Brown was just hoping against hope that McCoy stay healthy. Why wasn't the experienced Chiles being prepared as a backup in the event of a disaster? I don't know.

Some teams with national title aspirations did it right, though. When Tim Tebow—another player as important to his team as McCoy—went out with a concussion this season, they had sophomore John Brantley to come in. He completed 75% of his passes, for 7 TDs and 0 interceptions in action this year. Meanwhile at Cincinnati, sophomore Zach Collaros stepped in for an injured Tony Pike and, like Brantley, completed 75% of his passes, with 10 TDs and 2 interceptions.

What a difference a year makes!

Best College Football Programs of the Decade: USC is #1

Now that we've looked at how the SportsRatings Power Rating ranks the top teams (for a single year) of the decade, let's look at which football programs were the best from 2000-2009.

For this purpose, we'll use only the Success ratings, because that's what really counts: did the team win games, against good teams, year in and year out? We will add up each team's score, year by year, and get a list of the top ten. Since the Success rating is a positive number for any team that won a game (and can be considered to be zero for winless teams), this will result in an objective cumulative score for each program that highlights very good years and gives just a small credit for mediocre seasons.

Since there were only eight teams that won national championships in the decade (Oklahoma, Miami, Ohio State, LSU, USC, Texas, Florida, and Alabama), there will be at least two football programs in the list that didn't win a national title.

Here are the top ten teams, with their finish in the Success Ratings for each year, and cumulative points:

rnk	Team	'00	'01	'02	'03	'04	'05	'06	'07	'08	'09	Points
1.	USC	61	55	5	2	1	3	4	7	4	14	102.77
2.	Florida	9	3	16	13	42	11	1	14	2	3	97.89
3.	Oklahoma	1	7	4	7	3	20	23	6	5	36	94.63
4.	Texas	30	6	6	14	5	1	24	21	3	6	89.65
5.	OSU	24	43	1	3	22	7	6	9	21	5	82.13
6.	Miami	3	1	2	5	7	8	45	72	33	16	79.86
7.	LSU	23	5	33	1	19	5	7	1	40	19	67.88
8.	Auburn	20	17	22	29	2	12	3	20	71	29	65.37
9.	Boise St	32	34	14	9	8	41	2	42	9	2	64.39
10.	Alabama	67	33	15	76	68	10	59	37	6	1	63.30

Unsurprisingly the USC Trojans take the top spot, with their six top-five finishes beating Florida's four top-3 finishes. In the Success ratings, USC only won one national title, as did Florida (Utah edged them for #1 last year, but the point margin was insignificant).

Oklahoma's seven top ten finishes puts them at #3, and Texas is right behind with six top-tens though they ended up only #6 this year due to their weak schedule.

Ohio State beat Miami for the national title in 2002, and they edge Miami for the decade, finishing #5 due to six top ten years. Miami was in the top ten for the first six years of the decade but their decline thereafter kept them out of the running for the top team.

LSU won two national titles according to the Success ratings, but both were very weak years, and LSU's spotty record otherwise limits them to #6. Auburn didn't win a single national title, but the 2004 year garnered them a similar amount of points and they finished 8th.

Boise State had two unbeaten years, finishing #2 each time, and they rarely lost games during the decade. They placed just ahead of Alabama, who struggled much of the decade but had strong years in 2005, 2008, and of course this year which they won in a big way, earning them over half their points.

The Top 25

Expanding the list to 25 teams yields the 2000-2009 Top 25, with point values rounded off.

1. USC (103)
2. Florida (98)
3. Oklahoma (95)
4. Texas (90)
5. Ohio State (82)
6. Miami (80)
7. LSU (68)
8. Auburn (65)
9. Boise State (64)
10. Alabama (63)
11. Georgia (60)
12. Virginia Tech (50)
13. Oregon (47)
14. Utah (46)
15. Tennessee (44)
16. Florida State (41)
17. West Virginia (39)
18. Michigan (38)
19. Oregon State (36)
20. Iowa (35)
21. Penn State (34)
22. TCU (33)
23. Wisconsin (33)
24. Louisville (32)
25. Washington (30)

others receiving votes would include Texas Tech, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame

Best Teams of the Decade: 2005 Texas edges 2004 USC, 2009 Alabama

Who is the best (single) team of the decade just passed? According to the SportsRatings Power Rating, based on team Strength and Success, it's the 2005 Texas Longhorns. Here is a list of the ten national champions this decade, in order:

rnk Team/year                  record   Rating      Strength    Success
 1. Texas 2005                  13-0    68.30 [ 1]  41.07 [ 1]  27.22 [ 5]
 2. USC 2004                    13-0    68.15 [ 2]  35.95 [ 4]  32.19 [ 2]
 3. Alabama 2009                14-0    66.91 [ 3]  29.27 [ 6]  37.64 [ 1]
 4. Miami 2001                  12-0    60.62 [ 4]  39.26 [ 2]  21.36 [ 7]
 5. Florida 2008                13-1    58.46 [ 5]  38.05 [ 3]  20.40 [ 8]
 6. Oklahoma 2000               13-0    57.14 [ 6]  29.91 [ 5]  27.23 [ 4]
 7. Ohio State 2002             14-0    49.25 [ 7]  19.70 [10]  29.54 [ 3]
 8. Florida 2006                13-1    46.13 [ 8]  22.50 [ 9]  23.62 [ 6]
 9. LSU 2003                    13-1    44.87 [ 9]  29.10 [ 7]  15.76 [ 9]
10. LSU 2007                    12-2    36.07 [10]  24.58 [ 8]  11.49 [10]

Texas of 2005 just barely edges USC from the previous year, based on their huge Strength rating that ranked #1 among all teams of the decade. Alabama's 2009 team was tops in Success for beating two undefeated teams, while Miami's classic 2001 squad was 2nd in Strength but didn't play many high-value opponents (and at 12-0, played the fewest games of any national champ in the 2000s).

Florida from last year was 5th and Oklahoma of 2000 6th. Ohio State's 2002 winner was the weakest national champion, but they won 14 games and beat previously undefeated Miami to rank 3rd among the decade's teams in Success. Florida's other championship team was 8th and both of LSU's winners were lowest-ranked among the ten.

Note that for the 2003 season LSU was used, simply because they score a bit higher than USC that year, but it's not too important to the list. But if we want to include USC, what about 2004 Auburn? Or 2008 Utah, or Boise State from this year? Here's an expanded list that includes those teams and any other than went undefeated during the decade, making the list 16 teams long:

rnk Team/year                  record   Rating      Strength    Success
 1. Texas 2005                  13-0    68.30 [ 1]  41.07 [ 1]  27.22 [ 5]
 2. USC 2004                    13-0    68.15 [ 2]  35.95 [ 4]  32.19 [ 2]
 3. Alabama 2009                14-0    66.91 [ 3]  29.27 [ 6]  37.64 [ 1]
 4. Miami 2001                  12-0    60.62 [ 4]  39.26 [ 2]  21.36 [ 8]
 5. Florida 2008                13-1    58.46 [ 5]  38.05 [ 3]  20.40 [10]
 6. Oklahoma 2000               13-0    57.14 [ 6]  29.91 [ 5]  27.23 [ 4]
 7. Ohio State 2002             14-0    49.25 [ 7]  19.70 [13]  29.54 [ 3]
 8. Auburn 2004                 13-0    48.34 [ 8]  22.95 [11]  25.38 [ 6]
 9. Florida 2006                13-1    46.13 [ 9]  22.50 [12]  23.62 [ 7]
10. LSU 2003                    13-1    44.87 [10]  29.10 [ 7]  15.76 [12]
11. Utah 2008                   13-0    39.93 [11]  19.04 [14]  20.89 [ 9]
12. Utah 2004                   12-0    38.89 [12]  25.92 [ 9]  12.97 [14]
13. USC 2003                    12-1    37.28 [13]  26.27 [ 8]  11.01 [16]
14. Boise State 2009            14-0    37.26 [14]  18.75 [15]  18.50 [11]
15. LSU 2007                    12-2    36.07 [15]  24.58 [10]  11.49 [15]
16. Boise State 2006            13-0    32.39 [16]  17.39 [16]  15.00 [13]

The first difference is at #8, where 2004's undefeated Auburn ranks higher than Florida's 1-loss 2006 champion. Then Utah's two undefeated teams come in at #11 and #12, with the 2008 squad's 13-0 record giving them the edge over the stronger 2004 team which never had much of a chance to prove itself against a top team. USC from 2003 is next; they rank lowest in Success of all 16 teams.

Boise State's two undefeated teams—from this year and 2006—are #14 and #16. They rank 2nd to last and last in Strength among the listed teams, and neither is in the top ten in Success due to easier schedules. But this year's team does rate higher than LSU, the only 2-loss team to win the national title.

Here are the same 16 teams ranked by Strength, which I think does a good job of comparing the teams in terms of how good they really were, and who might win if they faced each other:

rnk Team/year                  record   Rating      Strength    Success
 1. Texas 2005                  13-0    68.30 [ 1]  41.07 [ 1]  27.22 [ 5]
 2. Miami 2001                  12-0    60.62 [ 4]  39.26 [ 2]  21.36 [ 8]
 3. Florida 2008                13-1    58.46 [ 5]  38.05 [ 3]  20.40 [10]
 4. USC 2004                    13-0    68.15 [ 2]  35.95 [ 4]  32.19 [ 2]
 5. Oklahoma 2000               13-0    57.14 [ 6]  29.91 [ 5]  27.23 [ 4]
 6. Alabama 2009                14-0    66.91 [ 3]  29.27 [ 6]  37.64 [ 1]
 7. LSU 2003                    13-1    44.87 [10]  29.10 [ 7]  15.76 [12]
 8. USC 2003                    12-1    37.28 [13]  26.27 [ 8]  11.01 [16]
 9. Utah 2004                   12-0    38.89 [12]  25.92 [ 9]  12.97 [14]
10. LSU 2007                    12-2    36.07 [15]  24.58 [10]  11.49 [15]
11. Auburn 2004                 13-0    48.34 [ 8]  22.95 [11]  25.38 [ 6]
12. Florida 2006                13-1    46.13 [ 9]  22.50 [12]  23.62 [ 7]
13. Ohio State 2002             14-0    49.25 [ 7]  19.70 [13]  29.54 [ 3]
14. Utah 2008                   13-0    39.93 [11]  19.04 [14]  20.89 [ 9]
15. Boise State 2009            14-0    37.26 [14]  18.75 [15]  18.50 [11]
16. Boise State 2006            13-0    32.39 [16]  17.39 [16]  15.00 [13]

Vince Young's Texas team just beats the loaded Dorsey/McGahee Miami team, with Tim Tebow's best Florida team edging the Leinart/Bush USC squad for 3rd place. Oklahoma from 2000 edges this year's Alabama for 5th place, followed by LSU and USC from 2003 in a dead heat, of course.

Two other undefeated teams from 2004 are 9th and 11th: Alex Smith's Utah team and Auburn, with 2007's LSU (who lost twice but both times in triple overtime) in 10th. The also-ran champions from the decade are clearly Florida of 2006 and Ohio State of 2002, neither of which was dominant during the season. Utah of 2008 and Boise State of 2009 and 2006 were the weakest undefeated teams of the decade.

Next up: the best programs (cumulative) of the decade.

SportsRatings Final Top 25 for 2009 Season: Alabama #1, Boise State #2

Alabama is #1 and the SportsRatings 2009 National Champion; that one is obvious. The Crimson Tide beat 1-loss Texas and Florida, plus Virginia Tech, LSU, and Mississippi, and a total of 10 bowl teams. But who should be #2, #3, and #4? Between Texas, Florida, and Boise State, three teams can stake a claim.

Let's start with Texas. You can argue that they came closer to beating Alabama—and without their absolute key player—than Florida did, and put them #2. But one look at their weak résumé—no top 25 wins—and put them #6, if not lower. I split the difference, noting that they beat 8 bowl-eligible teams even if Oklahoma State and Nebraska are the only borderline top 25 teams they defeated.

For the #2 spot I took Boise State. Florida wasn't close in the game against Alabama, and looking at just  top 25 wins Boise State has just as good an argument—beating 1-loss TCU, 3-loss Oregon—as well as having no losses. It isn't their fault they play in a weak conference. Florida is a strong #3 with a dominant win over 1-loss Cincinnati. TCU and Cincinnati both lost one game, and TCU kept it closer as well as having better wins than the Bearcats; they follow at #5 and #6.

Then comes the invasion of the Big Ten. Three teams, all 11-2, make the top ten this year. At #7 is Ohio State, who has four top 25 wins (2nd only to Alabama); only the bad loss to Purdue keeps them perhaps out of the top five. Next comes Iowa, who finished 11-2 and lost to Ohio State on the road in overtime. Both teams easily handled Penn State, so there is an appropriate one-slot gap to where the Nittany Lions stand at #10. In-between, 11-2 BYU finishes at #9, the second top ten team for the Mountain West.

Five 3-loss teams place between #11 and #15. The first is Oregon, who beat Utah and USC, and lost to two top ten teams. Two ACC teams are next, with Georgia Tech ahead of Virginia Tech, whom they beat during the season. Utah is next; they had no top 25 wins but lost only to teams in the top 11. Then, moving up five slots after beating Miami, is Wisconsin, the 4th Big Ten team in the top 15.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Final rankings for 2009 season (1-08-2010)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Wins over top 25 teams; all losses
1	1	Alabama	13-0	wins: =Fla32-13,=Tex37-21,=VTech34-24,LSU24-15,@Miss22-3  Losses: none
4	2	Boise State	14-0	wins: TCU17-10,Oregon19-8  Losses: none
6	3	Florida	13-1	wins: =Cincy51-24,@LSU13-3,Troy56-6  Losses: =Alabama32-13
2	4	Texas	13-1	wins: @OKst41-14  Losses: =Alabama37-21
3	5	TCU	12-1	wins: @BYU38-7,Utah55-28  Losses: =BoiseSt17-10
5	6	Cincinnati	12-1	wins: WVa24-21,Pitt45-44  L=FLA51-24
8	7	Ohio State	11-2	wins: @PennSt24-7,Iowa27-24ot,Wisc31-13,=Oregon26-17  Losses:@Pur26-18,USC18-15
9	8	Iowa	11-2	wins: @PennSt21-10,@Wisc20-10,=GTech24-14  Losses:NWest17-10,@OSU27-24ot
10	9	BYU	11-2	wins: Utah26-23ot  Losses:FSU54-28,TCU38-7
12	10	Penn State	11-2	wins: =LSU19-17,Temple31-6  Losses:Iowa 21-10,OSU24-7
7	11	Oregon	10-3	wins: Utah31-24,USC47-20  Losses:@Stan51-42,@Boise19-8,=OhioSt26-17
11	12	Georgia Tech	11-3	wins: VT28-23  Losses:GA30-24,@Miami33-16,=Iowa24-14
13	13	Virginia Tech	10-3	wins: Miami31-7  Losses:UNC20-17,@GT28-23,=Ala34-24
15	14	Utah	10-3	wins: none  Losses:@TCU55-28,@Oregon31-24,@BYU26-23ot
20	15	Wisconsin	10-3	wins: @Miami20-14  Losses:@Nwest33-31,Iowa20-10,@OSU31-13
18	16	C. Michigan	12-2	wins: @Troy44-41ot  Losses:@BC31-10,@Arizona19-6
22	17	Pittsburgh	10-3	wins: none  Losses:@NCst38-31,@Wva19-16,@Cincy45-44
16	18	Miami	9-4	wins: GT33-16  Losses:Clem40-37ot,@UNC33-24,@VT31-7,Wis20-14
--	19	USC	9-4	wins: @OSU18-15  Losses:@Wash16-13,Az21-17,Stan55-21,@Ore47-20
--	20	Mississippi	9-4	wins: LSU25-23,OKst21-7  Losses:@MissSt41-27,@SCar16-10,@Aub33-20,Ala22-3
14	21	LSU	9-4	wins: none  Losses:@Miss25-23,FLA13-3,@Ala24-15,=PennSt19-17
17	22	West Virginia	9-4	wins: Pitt19-16  Losses:@Aub41-30,@USF30-19,@FSU33-21,@Cincy24-21
23	23	Troy	9-4	wins: MTenn31-6  Losses:@BGr31-14,@Ark56-20,@Fla56-6,CMich44-41ot
25	24	M. Tennessee	10-3	wins: none  Losses: @MissSt27-6,@Clemson37-14,@Troy31-6
19	25	Houston	10-4	wins: @OKst45-35  Losses: @UTEP58-41,@ECU38-32,UCF37-32,=AirF47-20

Others receiving consideration: Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Nebraska, Rutgers, Temple, Navy, Clemson

Central Michigan is at #16 and Pittsburgh at #17. The Chippewas beat Troy and lost just twice; Pitt has no top 25 wins and a bad loss to N.C. State, but beat North Carolina to move up five slots.

Almost every single 4-loss team in the nation lost during the bowl season, leaving very few new entries into the top 25. Miami's loss to Wisconsin drops them a couple of spots to #16. Next come two teams who each have a bad loss, but USC's win over Ohio State puts them ahead of Mississippi as the Trojans and Rebels re-enter at #19 and #20. LSU barely lost to Mississippi and played tight games with three top ten teams, overcoming their lack to top 25 wins.

West Virginia lost to Florida State in the Gator Bowl but their win over Pitt keeps them in the rankings. Likewise, Troy remains in for their clear win over Middle Tennessee. The Trojans hold at #23 as they lost a double overtime game to #16 Central Michigan, while the Blue Raiders move up one spot for finishing 10-3 and winning their bowl game. This gives the Sun Belt two top 25 teams, one more than the Big 12!

The last spot was up for grabs among several 4-loss teams, but Houston deserved it by their win over Oklahoma State, and it conveniently gives Conference USA a representative. They also beat Texas Tech, another team vying for the spot. The Cougars fell six spots, however, after losing big to Air Force. Here are the rest of the teams that were in contention, and why they didn't make it:

• Oklahoma State (9-4) - beat Texas Tech, but lost to Houston
• Texas Tech (9-4) - beat Nebraska 31-10, but lost to Oklahoma State, Houston
• Nebraska (10-4) - really deserved it at the end, but no top 25 wins, and lost big to Texas Tech
• Rutgers (9-4) - no top 25 wins, bad loss to Syracuse
• Temple (9-4) - beat Navy, but no top 25 wins and fell to I-AA champ Villanova
• Navy (10-4) - lost to Temple
• Clemson (9-5) - five losses (2 to Georgia Tech), and beat 2 top 25 teams; bad loss to 2-10 Maryland

Other 4-loss teams that lost their bowl games, and therefore their shot at the top 25 were: East Carolina, Northwestern, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State, California, North Carolina, Boston College, Central Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and Fresno State. Of these, East Carolina and Central Florida would have been ahead of Houston for sure, Northwestern and North Carolina beat two top 25 teams each and would have been in, and any of the Pac-10 teams could have made it with a win, too.

By conference

Here are the teams that ended in the SportsRatings Top 25 by Conference:

• SEC (4): #1 Alabama, #3 Florida, #20 Mississippi, #21 LSU
• Big Ten (4): #7 Ohio State, #8 Iowa, #10 Penn State, #15 Wisconsin
• Mountain West (3): #5 TCU, #9 BYU, #14 Utah
• Big East (3): #6 Cincinnati, #17 Pittsburgh, #22 West Virginia
• ACC (3): #12 Georgia Tech, #13 Virginia Tech, #18 Miami
• Pac-10 (2): #11 Oregon, #19 USC
• Sun Belt (2): #23 Troy, #24 Middle Tennessee State
• WAC (1): #2 Boise State
• Big 12 (1): #4 Texas
• MAC (1): #16 Central Michigan
• C-USA (1): #25 Houston

2010 BCS Championship Game Results - Final Score: Alabama 37, Texas 21

With Colt McCoy knocked out of the game in the opening minutes with a shoulder injury, backup Garrett Gilbert made two crucial mistakes as Alabama held on for a 37-21 win in the BCS championship game.

Gilbert played like a newborn doe for most of the first half and had a shovel pass intercepted for a touchdown. He got things going in the 2nd half, throwing two touchdown passes to Jordan Shipley, but his fumble deep late in the game sealed the game for Alabama.

First quarter - Texas garners two turnovers, but loses McCoy

On their first possession, Alabama went three and out: Ingram was stuffed for no gain and McElroy sacked. Then, surprisingly, Nick Saban called for a fake punt that was intercepted (should have been batted down) on fourth down.

Colt McCoy ran the ball on the next series and was rocked and evidently hurt his shoulder; backup Garrett Gilbert went in for the offense. Alabama made a goal-line stand on the series, and the Longhorns kicked a field goal to go up 3-0.

Texas kicked off and recovered the ball at Alabama's 30-yard line—no one on the Crimson Tide went for the ball. Huge mistake for Alabama. Texas couldn't move the ball well under Gilbert and they settled for another field goal, making it 6-0.

Ingram had an 18-yard run but McElroy was sacked twice and the Tide had to punt. Texas took over on their 20 yard line, easily their worst field position. Alabama stifled the Texas running game and on third down Gilbert completed a pass for negative yardage; Texas punted for the first time.

2nd Quarter - With Gilbert ineffective, Alabama slowly but surely takes control

Ingram looked strong again, breaking tackles and pushing for extra yardage, putting the Tide at first down on the Texas 2-yard line as the 1st quarter ended. Ingram walked in two plays later and Alabama took the lead, 7-6.

Texas went three and out again, and backup Gilbert was shaken up after being hit on third down (he appears to be all right). But the Longhorn defense sacked McElroy again—the 4th time already—and Alabama had to punt. The Tide defense returned the favor, with Gilbert looking uncomfortable leading the offense as he threw two incompletions, the second one tipped, and stopped for no gain on a scramble.

Then Alabama's Trent Richardson blasted through Texas' defense and raced for a 49-yard touchdown run, putting Alabama up 14-6.

Back on offense Texas ran three great plays, nearly completing a long touchdown pass, but on the fourth Gilbert was intercepted by Javier Arenas. Alabama didn't capitalize but they played the field position game well and got the ball back inside the 30 yard line, leading to a field goal shortly before the half ended.

Unbelievably, Texas tried a shovel pass into a crowd with 15 seconds to go which was intercepted and run back for a touchdown by Marcell Dareus. Instead of being behind a manageable 17-6, Texas went into the locker room down 24-6. It's hard to imagine that Texas didn't just completely give the game away with that play.

Halftime score: Alabama 24, Texas 6

3rd Quarter - Texas struggles back to life

Texas' first drive showed a bit of promise, with Gilbert completing a first down pass and another to Marquise Goodwin who zipped for 38 yards, but they came up short again and punted. Their next possession wasn't even that successful.

But Texas' defense did a good job against Alabama's running game. Mark Ingram left the game with craps, and the Longhorns continued to sack McElroy, forcing the third three-and-out of the quarter. And on Texas' next possession Gilbert found Jordan Shipley for a 44-yard touchdown, making it 24-13.

Texas stunned Alabama with an onside kick, taking over on the 40 yard line, but this time no magic happened for the Longhorns on offense.

4th Quarter - For a short while, the Longhorns make it a game

Alabama managed a few first downs with help from several penalties on the Longhorns, and the Tide drove into Texas territory. Leigh Tiffin missed a 52-yard field goal.

Texas found hope again on the next drive, with Gilbert looking far better than he had all game, completing two clutch first-down plays, then hitting Shipley again for a 28-yard TD. A two-point conversion made it 24-21 with 6:15 left.

Alabama was forced to punt, but on the next series Gilbert was sacked and fumbled, and Alabama took over inside Texas' five yard line. After a valient effort by Texas' defense, Ingram just made it in on third down. With two minutes to go, Alabama had a 31-21 lead.

Another interception thrown by Gilbert set up a late Alabama touchdown that was meaningless at that point. The game ended with yet another interception, and Greg McElroy took a bow as the quarterback of the national champion Alabama Crimson Tide.

The game was surprisingly close for Texas being handicapped without McCoy. With him in the game it could have been very different; two of Alabama's touchdowns were directly due to Gilbert's miscues. Texas would have been right in the game and probably ahead. But we'll never know, as what could have been a classic became merely interesting when Texas cut the lead.

Both Richardson and Ingram rushed for over 100 yards and two touchdowns apiece. McElroy was 6 of 11 despite being sacked five times, while Gilbert was just 15 of 40.

Alabama finishes a perfect year 14-0, with 10 wins over bowl teams. Texas falls to 13-1, joining TCU and Cincinnati as other teams that fell for the first time during the bowl season.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2009-2010 schedule with previews and results.

2010 GMAC Bowl Results - Final Score: Central Michigan 44, Troy 41 2OT

Dan LeFevour threw a touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter then ran the ball for another in the first overtime to lead Central Michigan to a 44-41 double overtime win over Troy in the GMAC Bowl. The Chippewas' winning field goal came after they blocked a Trojan attempt.

The game turned on two key scores. With Troy leading 31-19 in the fourth quarter, Antonio Brown broke for a 95-yard touchdown on a kickoff return. Minutes later Central Michigan had the ball again and LeFevour took over, driving the team 85 yards and throwing a 4-yard touchdown pass to Bryan Anderson. A converted two-point extra point gave the Chippewas a 3 point lead with 1:30 to go.

But Troy came back, with quarterback Levi Brown quickly getting the team into field goal range. Michael Taylor's 46-yarder tied the game at 34, and the contest was sent into overtime.

The teams opened the game with missed field goals, then Troy started the scoring on a 9-yard pass to DuJuan Harris. The team's kickers, both now warmed up, took over from there with Central Michigan's Andrew Aguila connecting on three field goals and Taylor hitting one to keep Troy ahead 10-9 at the half.

Things opened up in the third quarter. A Trojan interception of LeFevour gave them great field position, and Shawn Southward ran it in from the one, putting Troy up 17-9. The Chippewas responded with another field goal, and then after Troy fumbled near the Chippewa red zone, Antonio Brown capped another drive with a 7-yard score.

But Troy kept coming, with Dujuan Harris touchdowns runs of 6 yards and 1 yard giving the Trojans a solid 4th quarter lead, 31-19.

On the ensuing kick, however, Antonio Brown had other ideas. He ran between several defenders and sped past the rest, going 95 yards for a score, and Central Michigan took a temporary lead—their first of the game—after LeFevour's late drive. Troy remedied that with the late field goal, making the score Troy 34, Central Michigan 34 at the end of regulation.

In the first overtime period LeFevour was sacked once before scrambling for a 13-yard touchdown—the 150th touchdown of his career, an NCAA record. But Troy came back again; Levi Brown shook off a near-interception to find a receiver at the one, then Southward got his second 1-yard touchdown to make it Troy 41, Central Michigan 41 at the end of the first overtime.

The Trojans couldn't find the end zone on the second overtime, and Taylor's 31-yard field goal attempt was blocked, giving the Chippewas a big advantage. Central Michigan simply positioned themselves for the winning field goal, Aguila's fifth of the night.

Both quarterbacks played very well, each throwing for nearly 400 yards. LeFevour was 33 of 55, Brown 31 of 56.

Central Michigan, the MAC champion, ends their conference's bowl win drought and gives the team a 12-2 record. Already #18 in the SportsRatings Top 25, they'll be at least that high in the final rankings. #23 Troy, the Sun Belt champ, falls to 9-4, but they may stay in as they hold a win over #25 Middle Tennessee State.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2009-2010 schedule with previews and results.

2010 BCS Championship Game Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Texas vs. Alabama

Thursday January 7th: BCS Championship Game in Pasadena, CA 8:00 pm eastern

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) vs. #2 Texas Longhorns (13-0)

This will be the first national title game ever featuring two 13-0 teams.

Vegas line/spread: Alabama by 4 (over/under 45 1/2).

Following their big win over Florida and Texas' scare against Nebraska, Alabama became a 4 1/2 to 5 point favorite. Nearing game time, the spread is anywhere from 4 to 4 1/2 points.

Strength Power Rating:      Texas 24   Alabama 23

Texas' #1 scoring offense will meet Alabama's #1 scoring defense in Pasadena. The difference is that Texas' scoring defense is #10, while Alabama's offense is only #18. The Strength power rating favors the Longhorns by almost 2 points. Rounding off the projected scores results in a 1-point Texas win.

Yardage analysis:   Texas 17  Alabama 17     per attempt: Alabama 24  Texas 13

Texas is #2, Alabama #4 in adjusted yardage differential per game, meaning these teams should outgain the average opponent by a wide margin. Texas is surprisingly only #10 on offense; their defense and special teams have scored a lot of points for them this year, which makes their scoring "offense" look even better. They're #3 on defense, which is better than their scoring rating. Alabama not surprisingly has the #1 defense, along with the #14 offense. These numbers are very close; taken together and converted to a score estimate, it yields a dead heat, with both scoring 17. If we use the per-attempt figures as a tie-breaker, Alabama dominates in the overtime period; the Tide's offense looks great on a per-play basis and their defense (most importantly, their pass defense) improves. Texas throws so many short passes that on a per-attempt basis they don't excel, even with Colt McCoy's stellar completion percentage.

When Texas has the ball
Texas rushing offense: #46  per att: #40      Alabama rushing defense: #1     per att: #1
Texas passing offense: #15  per att: #38      Alabama passing defense: #16   per att: #3

Quarterback Colt McCoy started slow this year but finished completing over 70% of his passes, and throwing for just over 3,500 yards, with 27 touchdowns. He had 12 interceptions, several more than last year's eight. This year the team's MVP could conceivably be Jordan Shipley, who has 103 catches for 1,363 yards and 11 touchdowns, in addition to a 13.0 yard average on punt returns, two of which he's taken to the end zone.

McCoy didn't have the burden of being the team's leading rusher, but that's partly because he gained fewer yards on the ground, just 348 this year. Leading rusher Tre' Newton has 513 yards, while Cody Johnson has the most TDs at 12.

Alabama's main concern will be stopping the passing game, of course. Their rushing defense is #1 however you look at it, and the fact that McCoy can run shouldn't complicate matters too much. The Tide's pass defense is #3 in the more reliable per-attempt figures, making it strong enough to handle Texas' passing game. Alabama ranks in the top five in interceptions, and they get enough pressure on quarterbacks to bother McCoy, who has been sacked 30 times this year. All in all, it looks like Texas will be held to well below its 41-point average, and closer to Alabama's defensive average of 11 points.

When Alabama has the ball
Alabama rushing offense: #13  per att: #9        Texas rushing defense: #3    per att: #2
Alabama passing offense: #55  per att: #15      Texas passing defense: #6    per att: #10

Though the focus of the game is on Alabama's defense and Texas' offense, the Texas defense should get some respect, too, ranking in the top ten against both the run and the pass. So even if Alabama can repeat Nebraska's defensive performance on the Longhorns, they have to find a way to score points themselves.

Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram is their #1 threat, with 1,542 yards and 15 touchdowns this year. He'll be facing a Texas defense much better than the Arkansas and Auburn units that shut him down. He did get 113 yards on Florida, a team with rushing defense similar to Texas', but they held him to 4 yards per carry, well under his 6.2 average. I expect he'll have a similar game against the Longhorns.

Greg McElroy leads an efficient passing attack with a number of quality receivers. He has just 2,450 yards and 17 touchdowns, but just 4 interceptions all season. Texas' secondary is notorious for its interceptions this year, as the Longhorns lead the nation in that stat with 24, four of them returned for touchdowns. Texas is also in the top ten in sacks, so when Alabama is in throwing situations they'll face more adversity than normal. But again, against Florida he was 12 of 18 for 239 yards and no interceptions, and was sacked just once.

Game-comparison win %      vs. spread     expanded win%   vs. spread
Texas                   53.8%         68%              55.4%                 65%             
Alabama               46.2%        32%              44.6%                 35%

Texas's game ratings are a bit better than Alabama's, leading to projected wins 54 to 55% of the time (the expanded system uses offense and defense ratings cross-combined to cover vastly more possibilities). Since the line favors Alabama, Texas covers in about 2/3 of the combinations.

Alabama's key games

Wins over bowl-eligible teams (9):

• #13 Va Tech 34-24 (1st game of season)
• Arkansas 35-7 (4th game)
• @ Kentucky 38-20 (5th)
• @ Mississippi 22-3 (6th)
• South Carolina 20-6 (7th)
• Tennessee 12-10 (8th)
• #14 LSU 24-15 (9th)
• @ Auburn 26-21 (12th)
• = #6 Florida 32-13 (13th)

Losses (0):

• none

Alabama has an amazing nine wins over bowl teams, as the SEC had 10 qualifiers this year. Alabama's opponents went 5-4 in their bowl games.

There aren't many weak games in Alabama's chart, and the ones that seem the weakest (Tennessee, Auburn) don't rank all that low since they were against good teams. So it's easier to look at the offense and defense charts to see where they excelled or not.

Their offense did the best in their first game (Virginia Tech) and final game (Florida). In between they were mostly good but not great. The Tennessee game, of course, stands out as a very poor effort. On defense the team hit incredible heights by holding Arkansas to 7, Mississippi to 3, Mississippi State to 3, and Florida to 13. Even the few times opponents scored over 20 (Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Auburn) the ratings aren't that low as these were still below average point totals.

Texas' key games

Wins over bowl-eligible teams (9):

• LA-Monroe 59-20 (1st game of season)
• @ Wyoming 41-10 (2nd game)
• Texas Tech 34-24 (3rd)
• = Oklahoma 16-13 (6th)
• @ Missouri 41-7 (7th)
• #21 Oklahoma State 41-14 (8th)
• Central Florida 35-3 (9th)
• @ Texas A&M 49-49 (12th)
• Nebraska 13-12

Losses (0):

• none

Astonishingly, Texas also beat nine bowl-eligible teams in 2009. The first team, Louisiana-Monroe, wasn't invited to a bowl game; the others went 4-4. So despite criticisms of Texas' schedule, they beat as many bowl teams as almost any team in college football history. With the lack of top 25 teams on their résumé (and Oklahoma State will probably not be there in the final poll), it can be fairly said that the Longhorns' schedule was weak at the top, but extremely stocked with mid-level to good opponents.

Like Alabama, not many of their performances stand out as particularly good or bad. The UTEP win (64-7, game 4) rates the highest, but the back-to-back Missouri/Oklahoma State wins were probably the team's real best moments. And they finished with their two worst performances, Texas A&M and Nebraska. Looking at the offense/defense charts, as expected the former ranks poor on defense, the latter poor on offense.

The offense only stalled twice: against Oklahoma and Nebraska. This is bad news, because Alabama has a top five scoring defense like those two teams. The offense soured against Louisiana-Monroe and UTEP, and was almost as strong against Missouri, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Kansas, and Texas A&M; of those, only Oklahoma State has a top 25 defense, and even there Texas' point total included two interception returns for touchdowns.

So the defense should get some credit for some of the high totals on the offense chart. On its own the defense improved through the early games and peaked mid-season, with a lapse against Texas A&M and a strong comeback against Nebraska. Alabama's scoring offense ranks similarly to Texas A&Ms, but they're very different offenses, so I don't see the Tide giving them similar problems. The defense probably won't be able to be as opportunistic as it has been against other teams, though, as Alabama doesn't throw many interceptions.

Turnovers gained projection: Alabama 2.0     Texas 1.8

Neither team is expected to dominate the (very unpredictable) turnover game. Texas steals a lot of turnovers—mostly via interception—and ranks #2 in turnovers gained (adjusted for opposition) but Alabama doesn't give up many, ranking #7 in adjusted turnovers lost. It will be interesting to see if Texas' defense—#1 in the nation with 24 interceptions—can pick off McElroy, who has just 4 interceptions this season.

Texas loses the ball at about an average clip, both through the air and by fumbling. Alabama is just above average in turnovers gained, so overall they have a slight advantage in the turnover game, expecting to steal two, perhaps one fumble and one interception of McCoy by the averages.

Sacks projected:  Alabama: 2.5   Texas: 1.7

Alabama has a good pass rush, ranking 27th in adjusted sacks. Colt McCoy has been sacked a lot—30 times this year—but they've played four teams (Texas Tech, Nebraska, Central Florida, and Oklahoma) who rank in the top ten in sacks, so overall their quarterback protection is about average. Alabama should expect to get 2 or 3 sacks. This does suggest good pressure on McCoy, though not the kind that Nebraska or Oklahoma managed.

Texas' pass rush is better than Alabama's, but the Tide's protection is good, too, as McElroy has been sacked just 13 times this season. Texas will likely get to him twice, maybe just once.

Psychology

It's rare to find a team in the national championship game that isn't "up" for it. In the past decade, there might be just a few examples (though it's hard to separate out just plain bad performance, or the other team's solid performance, as factors).

• In 2002 Miami definitely wasn't hungry against Ohio State, in which they were heavily favored, one year after winning it all. They came out a bit flat, fell behind, but came back to almost win. Ultimately they were unable to make themselves fully take the Buckeyes seriously.
• In 2003 Oklahoma might have come into their game against LSU rattled after losing for the first time, in such a big way, to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game.
• In 2005, USC faced the same situation as Miami, minus the weaker opponent. They were "up" for the game but not nearly as hungry as their opponent.
• In 2006 Ohio State came in extremely overconfident against Florida and lost big.

So the main things that can trip up a team in the national title game are 1) not being as hungry as your opponent, and 2) being overconfident. Miami had both problems and still nearly won; USC lost to a hungrier Texas team; and Ohio State was overconfident in addition to being outplayed.

Neither team is going to be overconfident at all in this year's game. But who is hungrier?

Texas missed out on last year's championship game due to math; they lost a heartbreaking game which turned in the last few second, and several weeks later they found it had cost them their shot. Alabama was defeated by Florida in the SEC title game. Texas' pain was worse, as they felt they still deserved to be in the title game, whereas Alabama knew they lost their chance by being beaten fair and square. Both teams were very flat in their bowl games, by the way.

Texas' goal all season was to make it to the BCS championship game. But since they focused so much on making it, is some of their goal already accomplished? Could they have lost some of their drive now that so much of their goal is completed? Likewise, Alabama looked forward to the rematch with Florida all season, and they gave by far their best effort in that game. Will they have the same effort left for Texas?

Final analysis

I think a lot of people have short memories when gauging this game. Seeing Alabama wipe out Florida, and Texas almost lose to Nebraska, they foresee an easy Alabama win. But do they remember the Tennessee game, or the Auburn game, where it looked as though the Tide were about to face their first loss? Both of these teams have had close calls; both have looked less than unstoppable. Texas doesn't have a signature win over Florida certainly, but they have 9 wins over bowl-eligible teams just like the Tide.

It wouldn't be surprising if Texas' offense can't operate against Alabama. The Longhorns like to beat up on teams with poor defenses, but when confronted with a really good defense they've had major trouble. Against Oklahoma (#4 scoring defense) on a neutral field they managed just 16 points; then on a mostly-home field against Nebraska (#2 scoring defense) they got just 13. Now, facing Alabama (#1 scoring defense), on a neutral field, can they expect to get much more than 10?

When we talk about scoring points, we usually look at one team's offense and the other's defense and compare them. But we have to remember that the defense and special teams can score points, too. In Texas' case, the defense has scored four touchdowns on interception returns, and the return team has scored 5 TDs. Alabama, by comparison, has scored 2 touchdowns on defense and just one on special teams. This is why the Strength Power Rating—which is concerned with points, only, not how they're scored—has Texas a favorite, while the offense-defense comparisons yield basically a tie.

Both teams have great return games. Texas ranks 4th in kickoff returns and 15th in punt returns, while Alabama is 116th and 64th on defense in those categories. Alabama is 10th and 4th in kick/punt returns, with Texas #66 and #87 on defense. Expect to see good field starting position for both offenses.

Red-zone play will be interesting, too, particularly when Texas has the ball; they rank #7 in red-zone conversions, and Alabama's defense ranks #2 in stopping their opponents in the red zone.

I don't think Alabama will do as well as they did against Florida. But Alabama's defense will give Texas a lot of trouble, the way similar defenses (Nebraska, Oklahoma) did. But Texas' defense will do just as well against Alabama's offense; Ingram may go over 100 yards but with a low average, and McElroy may sufffer a rare interception. Overall the Tide will not play as inspired as they did against Florida; neither will Texas seem to be exceptionally pumped up. I see a low-scoring affair, somewhat similar to the 2000 season championship game between Oklahoma and Florida State.

Prediction: Texas 10  Alabama 9

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2009-2010 bowl game schedule.

2010 Orange Bowl Results - Final Score: Iowa 24, Georgia Tech 14

Iowa overcame yet another pick six thrown by quarterback Ricky Stanzi to beat Georgia Tech 24-14 on a cold Orange Bowl night. The Hawkeye defense manhandled Georgia Tech's feared option offense, holding them to just 143 yards on the ground; meanwhile Iowa rushed for 172 yards and Stanzi passed for 231.

Stanzi completed his first nine passes, though the first one to Marvin McNutt was fumbled for a turnover and the ninth was intercepted by Jerrard Tarrant for a 40-yard Georgia Tech touchdown return. In between, though, he threw two touchdown passes for Iowa—the first to McNutt (set up by a 54-yarder to Tony Moeaki), the second to Colin Sandeman for 21 yards.

Iowa was up 14-0 and in control before Tarrant's interception return, largely due to the Iowa defense. Georgia Tech's triple-option was repeatedly stuffed on the ground, and when Josh Nesbitt tried to pass he found only incompletions or himself sacked. Sacked only nine times all year, Iowa added three more to his total, with a big one at the end of the half by game MVP Adrian Clayborn.

The Yellow Jackets got their offense moving in the second half but kicker Scott Blair missed a 41-yard field goal; Iowa's Daniel Murray made a 33-yarder to give the Hawks a 10-point lead, 17-7, at the end of the third quarter.

Georgia Tech's next drive was even better, as they began to get outside and find double-digit gains. Anthony Allen drove the ball in from the one yard line to give Tech their first points on offense, drawing them within 3 at 17-14.

Iowa had to punt on the next series, but immediately intercepted Nesbitt for great field position. Their drive stalled, and setting up for a field goal on fourth and goal from the Georgia Tech 3, they tried an ill-advised kicker bootleg which failed miserably.

But the Iowa defense came to the rescue again. Nesbitt was swarmed by several tacklers, with two of them latching onto him in the end zone; he barely escaped the safety. The Yellow Jackets had to punt again, their seventh punt after not punting once in their last two games.

This time the Hawkeye offense delivered, with Brandon Wegher breaking free on two big runs, the second of which carried him into the end zone to make it 24-14. Wegher finished with 113 yards for the night.

Georgia Tech went four and out on pass attempt by Nesbitt. For the night, Georgia Tech's 12 pass play calls resulted in two completions, three sacks, and one interception. The Yellow Jackets were averaging 11.08 yards per attempt; they finished with 9 yards for the game. Stanzi was 17 of 29.

#9 Iowa's victory gives them 11 wins for the only the second time in school history, the other time being the 2002 season when they last appeared in the Orange Bowl (in a 38-17 loss to USC). Starting 9-0 they had national title aspirations, but two losses knocked them out of even the Rose Bowl. Still, this is arguably the team's biggest bowl win ever.

#11 Georgia Tech falls to 11-3, with wins over Virginia Tech and Clemson (twice). It's the second straight year that a defense has adapted well to stopping their offense, confirming to some that Tech's bowl performances are doomed to be below their regular season standards.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2009-2010 schedule with previews and results.

2010 GMAC Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Troy vs. Central Michigan

Wednesday January 6th: GMAC Bowl in Mobile, AL 7:00 pm eastern

#23 Troy Trojans (9-3) vs. #18 Central Michigan Chippewas (11-2)

Of course this bowl game shouldn't be one day before the national championship. It shouldn't even be in January. That said, these teams have 20 wins between them and are both conference champs.

Vegas line/spread: Central Michigan by 3 (over/under 63).

A high-scoring battle is predicted by the oddsmakers, with the Chippewas a 3 point favorite, down from an early 4-point favorite.

Strength Power Rating:      Central Michigan 31   Troy 25

These teams aren't ranked as high as most of the teams playing in January. Central Michigan is 46th, Troy only #72 in the Strength Power Rating. The offenses are pretty even, with Troy at #45, Central Michigan at 47. But the Trojans are just 88th in scoring defense, while the Chippewas are 42nd. This gives Central Michigan more than an 8 point advantage in the power rating, but with home field advantage granted to Troy the margin is rounded to 6.

Yardage analysis:   Troy 35  Central Michigan 33     per attempt: Troy 30  Central Michigan 30

By yardage these teams couldn't be closer, ranking 52nd and 53rd in adjusted total yardage differential. Broken down into offense and defense, though, and the similarity ends; Troy is 16th on offense and just 96th on defense. Central Michigan is 51st and 56th. Troy's high yardage but lower scoring offense is largely due to turnovers, mainly fumbles, and the fact that they rank very poorly in kick returns. In any case, the yardage projection converted to a score (with home field added) gives Troy a small edge. The per-attempt projection can't call a winner.

When Central Michigan has the ball
Central Michigan rushing offense: #73  per att: #67      Troy rushing defense: #56    per att: #65
Central Michigan passing offense: #34  per att: #33      Troy passing defense: #117  per att: #82

Dan LeFevour is Central Michigan's version of Tim Tebow, passing for 3,043 yards and 27 TDs, and rushing for 701 yards and 14 touchdowns. The senior has completed 71% of his passes this year with only 6 interceptions. Though they rank in the 30s in raw figures for both rushing and passing, the MAC has weak rushing defenses, which means that in reality the Chippewas passing game is much more effective—not surprising on a team where the quarterback is the team's leading rusher. Their passing game also boasts 1,000 yard receiver Antonio Brown who has 9 touchdown receptions and 2 punt return touchdowns.

Troy's defense should be up to the task of handling Central Michigan's running game outside of LeFevour, but his option to run could be a problem for a team that can't defend the pass very well. Making LeFevour their complete focus—pressure the pass, stop him from running—is one option. Troy has a good pass rush and doesn't have a great chance of getting too many interceptions unless they can get pressure. Without pressure, LeFevour will probably pick them apart all night.

When Troy has the ball
Troy rushing offense: #89  per att: #74      Central Michigan rushing defense: #69   per att: #66
Troy passing offense: #6    per att: #25      Central Michigan passing defense: #58   per att: #58

Troy is a passing team, featuring Levi Brown who has thrown for nearly 4,000 yards this year, including 22 touchdown passes. He spreads the wealth among a lot of receivers but Jerrel Jernigan is #1 with just under 1,000 yards. The Troy running game is an afterthough with the top two backs combining for 1,000 yards.

Central Michigan's defense is very consistent on a per-game or per-play basis: slightly below average against the run, and average against the pass. The former means they're vulnerable to even a poor ground game, but with Troy that shouldn't be their concern. The latter means they'll have a lot a trouble against Brown and company. Their pass rush isn't that great and they don't come up with a lot of interceptions, either. Their best hope is their excellent red zone defense, ranked #12 (unadjusted) in the country. When the field is shortened the Chippewa defense does a lot better.

Game-comparison win %      vs. spread     expanded win%   vs. spread
Troy                     34%             41%              36.7%               43.2%
CMU                     66%             59%              63.3%               56.8%

Central Michigan's game ratings are very steady, and higher overall than Troy's, giving them almost 2/3 of the wins. Troy gets a bit more credit when offensive and defensive ratings are used to cover more possibilities. Against the spread, Troy is still only in the low 40s.

Central Michigan's key games

Wins over bowl-eligible teams (4):

• @ Mich. St. 29-27 (2nd game of season)
• @ Bowling Green 24-10 (8th game)
• Northern Illinois 45-31 (12th)
• Ohio 20-10 (13th)

Losses (2):

• @ Arizona 19-6
• @ Boston College 31-10

Central Michigan got their first AP poll ranking ever recently, though they've been in the SportsRatings Top 25 almost the entire season—ever since beating Michigan State 29-27 in a crazy comeback effort. They fell out after their loss to Boston College, but re-entered soon after and climbed to #18, their highest position of the year.

The Chippewas went 1-2 against BCS foes, losing the opener to Arizona. All three teams went to bowl games, but the magnitude of the losses hurt Central Michigan's argument of being top 25-worthy. Finally, though, their 11 wins convinced the AP sportswriters.

The team was really quite consistent game to game. But not so the offense and defense. Basically when the offense played poorly the defense played well, and vice versa. The offense clicked against Akron (48-21, game 4), Eastern Michigan (56-8, game 6), Toledo (56-28, game 10), and Northern Illinois; the defense peaked against Arizona, Bowling Green, Ball State (35-3, game 11), and Ohio. Though they played poor offense perhaps six times and poor defense five times, the only effort with both bad offense and defense was against Boston College.

Troy's key games

Wins over bowl-eligible teams (3):

• #25 M. Tennessee 31-7 (1st game of season)
• Louisiana-Monroe 42-21 (8th game)
• Louisiana-Lafayette 48-31 (12th)

Losses (3):

• @ Bowling Green 31-14
• @ #6 Florida 56-6
• @ Arkansas 56-20

Troy beat three bowl-eligible teams but only one bowl team, as the Louisiana squads were the only eligible 6-6 teams left out of the lineup of 34 bowl games. The other team, Middle Tennessee, finished 10-3 and Troy's 31-7 win is their best accomplishment this season.

Their worst was the loss to Bowling Green. The Florida followup was just as bad. Both games were on the road—in fact, Troy was a rare team that played only five home games this season. On offense, the team improved with every game before backsliding for a couple of games, then finishing with their best effort. On defense they had few games to be proud of; holding UAB to 14 in game 3 and Middle Tennessee to 7 was about it for strong defensive efforts.

Like Central Michigan they didn't have good luck against BCS teams, giving up 56 points both times.

Turnovers gained projection: Troy 1.2     Central Michigan 1.9

Troy gives up the ball a lot—16 fumbles lost to go with a not-bad 10 interceptions—but Central Michigan doesn't force a lot of fumbles or get too many interceptions. Still, the Chippewas should hold the turnover advantage, as they don't throw interceptions (8 all season) or lose fumbles (6).

Sacks projected:  Troy: 2.1   Central Michigan: 1.9

Both teams can expect to get the average number of sacks, around two. Central Michigan is average at quarterback protection and Troy has an average pass rush when adjusted for their competition. The Chippewas have an above-average pass rush while Troy has better-than-average protection.

Psychology

Both teams had good years, went 8-0 in conference play, and are facing another conference foe in a January bowl game. I don't see a big difference in how ready the teams will be to play.

Central Michigan does have the (almost common now) odd situation of being without their head coach. Butch Jones was hired by Cincinnati and the Chippewas will have an interim head coach. Could it be the difference maker?

Final analysis

If Central Michigan can put together a game where both the offense and defense play well, they'll have a hell of a performance. The odds of that seem to be about 1 in 10, as on offense they excelled in 4 games and 4 games on defense, too. They have about a 1 in 6 chance of both play poorly, as happened against Boston College.

So predicting Central Michigan is tough, so using their average effort, which is pretty constant, seems a good bet. Troy is different. They have two anomalies: their first two games were terrible compared to the rest, and their home games were markedly better than their road games (and they're playing essentially in their back yard).

Overall, Central Michigan seems to be the better team. They beat Bowling Green rather easily (24-10) while Troy lost 31-14. The Trojans' loss was in their first game; comparing the teams excluding the first two games reduces Central Michigan from a 6 point favorite to a 2 point favorite. Excluding all of Troy's road games (which includes the first two) changes the game, making Troy about a 3 point favorite. 

Both teams should be able to pass on the other team. LeFevour should have a strong effort in his final college game, while Troy's offense has grown better throughout the season. A high-scoring game seems to be in order (unless of course the MAC and Sun Belt champs act like the MWC and WAC champions). But  Central Michigan has a big edge where it counts, in the red zone. Both on offense and defense, the Chippewas rank #12 in the nation in red zone percentage. Troy's figures are 56th and 91st. With a lot of offensive passing yardage being piled up, both teams will get inside the 20 a lot, and when that happens Central Michigan is a lot more likely to take advantage of those opportunities. If the game is so close it goes into overtime, the entire game becomes a red zone battle.

Troy's home field play has been excellent. They're not quite on their home field, but they should see some of the effect. Their offense should be better than ever. But I can't ignore the red zone issue, and I think Dan LeFevour will go out with a big game like Tim Tebow did.

Prediction: Central Michigan 36  Troy 35

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2009-2010 bowl game schedule.

2010 Fiesta Bowl Results - Boise Upsets TCU, Final Score: 17-10

Boise State pulled off one of the bigger upsets of the bowl season, stunning TCU 17-10 in another surprisingly low-scoring contest between the two teams. TCU won last season's Poinsettia Bowl 17-16.

The Broncos intercepted Andy Dalton a total of three times, with two by Brandyn Thompson, one of which he took back 51 yards for a score on TCU's second possession of the game. Kyle Brotzman added a field goal in the second quarter to give Boise a 10-0 lead.

TCU's offense, and Dalton in particular, looked out of synch, with Dalton flubbing a snap at one point and the Horned Frogs unable to mount their usually unstoppable running game. Dalton finally got TCU on the board just before halftime with a 30-yard pass to Curtis Clay in the end zone.

The defensive battle continued in the second half. TCU settled for a field goal on their best drive of the third quarter and tied the game at 10, but after the second Dalton interception early in the fourth quarter the Broncos drove for a touchdown. Doug Martin took it in from the 2 yard line on a drive that was highlighted by a fake punt, with Kyle Brotzman completing a 29-yard pass straight down the middle on a fourth and nine.

TCU later failed on a fourth-and-six from Boise's 26 yard line, and on their last drive Dalton was intercepted again deep in Bronco territory.

Both teams entered the game undefeated; TCU drops to 12-1, with wins over BYU, Utah, and Clemson on their résumé. Boise State finishes 14-0 with a win over Oregon in addition to this one, meaning they could finish as high as #2, but probably #3 or #4. Things look good for the Broncos next year as they return almost all key players. With a top five finish this season, they should be ranked in the top five pre-season next year, giving them an inside track to not just a BCS game but the national championship game. Next year's slate includes games against Virginia Tech and Oregon State.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2009-2010 schedule with previews and results.

2010 Orange Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Georgia Tech vs. Iowa

Tuesday January 5th: Orange Bowl in Miami, FL 8:00 pm eastern

#9 Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) vs. #11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11-2)

The #2 Big Ten team goes up against the #1 ACC team in Miami (Miami Garden, technically) as Iowa's strong defense tries to contain Georgia Tech's devastating triple-option.

Vegas line/spread: Georgia Tech by 5 1/2 (over/under 51).

Georgia Tech was a 4 1/2 point favorite to start; the line has moved around a bit, dipping to 3 1/2, and now up to 5 1/2 points.

Strength Power Rating:      Georgia Tech 29   Iowa 21

The Strength power rating considers Georgia Tech a top ten team, while Iowa is a borderline top 25 team. This gives the Yellow Jackets an 8-point edge in projected score. Iowa's defense is strong at #13 but their offense is an unreliable #64. Georgia Tech's offense is #2 in the nation in adjusted scoring, however. Their defense is less stellar at #36.

Yardage analysis:   Georgia Tech 27  Iowa 20     per attempt: Georgia Tech 42   Iowa 27

The two teams' rankings by yardage differential is roughly the same as their scoring rankings, with Georgia Tech ranking 8th and Iowa 22nd. Iowa's offense is even more anemic at 81st—probably because their defense, ranked 10th, sets up so many opportunities that aren't accounted for by yardage. Georgia Tech is 3rd in total offense and 45th in defense, when adjusted for opposition. The per-attempt figures are truly screwy because the Yellow Jackets are so unbalanced in rushing vs. passing; and because their passing game ranks #1 paradoxically on a per-attempt basis, which we cover below.

When Georgia Tech has the ball
Georgia Tech rushing offense: #1      per att: #6      Iowa rushing defense: #37  per att: #38
Georgia Tech passing offense: #112  per att: #1      Iowa passing defense: #3    per att: #1

Georgia Tech is in the 2nd year of running Paul Johnson's triple-option, brought over from Navy. They run it well, ranking #1 in the national in rushing yards per game when adjusted for opposition. With 751 attempts this year (3rd only to Air Force and Navy) on a per-attempt basis they rank #6. Jonathan Dwyer leads the team with 1,346 yards and 14 touchdowns, and quarterback Josh Nesbitt has 991 yards and 18 TDs.

Of course, with so few passing attempts, they rack up little yardage through the air, ranking 112th per game. Here's where it gets interesting. The Yellow Jackets pass so infrequently that when they do it often catches defenses off guard. Also, Nesbitt likes to go long; despite throwing so few times he ranks 2nd in completions over 50 yards, receiver Demaryius Thomas averages an incredible 25 yards per catch. So even though he only completes 48% of his passes, Georgia Tech ends up #1 in the nation in yards per attempt adjusted for opponents' defenses.

Iowa's defense is one of the best, or the best, in the nation against the pass. They're 5th in interceptions, and rank high in adjusted sacks, too. How much this will matter due to Tech's sporadic passing remains to be seen. And unfortunately for the Hawkeyes the run is their weakness. Though they still rate well above average, stopping the Tech ground game is going to be a big challenge. But with a full month to prepare, they'll come in more practiced than most teams have.

When Iowa has the ball
Iowa rushing offense: #79  per att: #91      Georgia Tech rushing defense: #63   per att: #98
Iowa passing offense: #58  per att: #43      Georgia Tech passing defense: #35   per att: #52

Iowa's offense isn't really run or pass-oriented; it takes more of a "whatever we can get" approach. The Hawkeyes like to establish the run, using it to set up the pass, so their per-attempt numbers look even weaker for the ground game and a little better for passing, but Iowa isn't particularly good at either. Injuries to running backs have hobbled the ground game, with two freshmen both showing good signs at times and combining for 1,300 yards and 12 TDs.

The passing game has been Iowa's medicine and poison. Ricky Stanzi has completed only 56% of his passes for 2,186 yards. He has 15 TD passes but also 14 interceptions, with three of those being returned for touchdowns. But he always seems to come up with a play when it's needed; he often digs the team a hole, then leads them out of it as he did against Indiana when he threw 5 interceptions but went on to throw two touchdown passes in four scoring drives as Iowa prevailed. He also connected on a memorable last-second pass to beat Michigan State. Stanzi was hurt in the Northwestern loss and missed the last two games; without him they went 1-2 (almost beating Ohio State on the road) but he's expected to be in full health for the Orange Bowl.

Georgia Tech's defense is a good match for Iowa's offense: both are pretty bad. The Yellow Jackets might be good enough to stop Iowa most of the time, but the luck will probably be with the Hawkeyes. Georgia Tech is about average in getting interceptions, meaning they have a good chance to pick off Stanzi. They'll probably get average pressure on him, too. With both of Iowa's backs healthy the Hawkeyes could have success running the ball on the Yellow Jackets.

Game-comparison win %      vs. spread     expanded win%   vs. spread
Iowa                      34%          43%              34%                  44%
Georgia Tech          66%          57%              66%                  56%

Georgia Tech wins almost 2/3 of the game comparisons, either by game-rating or the expanded system using offense and defense ratings. The figures per the spread fall around 56-57% for Georgia Tech. Neither team has had any stratospheric performances this year, but the Yellow Jackets have done well in most games and have few sub-standard games. Iowa on the other hand has played at the level of their competition, whether good or bad, and thus has four very poor performances, three in games that they won.

Georgia Tech's key games

Wins over bowl-eligible teams (5):

• Clemson 30-27 (2nd game of season)
• North Carolina 24-7 (4th game)
• @ Florida State 49-44 (6th)
• #13 Virginia Tech 28-23 (7th)
• @ Clemson 39-34 (13th)

Losses (2):

• @ #16 Miami 33-17
• Georgia 30-24

The Ramblin' Wreck have defeated four bowl teams, one of them—Clemson—twice, both times very close games. These teams went 3-1 in bowl games.

Georgia Tech's key game of the season was their win over Virginia Tech, which put them in the driver's seat in the ACC. After that they faced four losing teams in a row, beating Wake Forest in overtime (game 10) but beating down Duke (49-10) the next week. They lost to rival Georgia just before winning the ACC championship game.

Neither of their losses could be blamed on the offense or defense alone; both played equally poorly, but not terribly so. The losses were easily their worst offensive showings, though, while defensively the Florida State win and giving up 31 points to Vanderbilt (game 9) were much worse. The defense played great against four teams: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Virginia (held to 9 points in game 8), and Duke. Other than that, they were average to very poor.

Iowa's key games

Wins over bowl-eligible teams (6):

• @ Iowa State 35-3 (2nd game of season)
• Arizona 27-17 (3rd game)
• @ #12 Penn State 21-10 (4th)
  
• @ #20 Wisconsin 20-10 (7th)
  
• @ Michigan State 15-13 (8th)
• Minnesota 12-0 (12th)

Losses (2):

• Northwestern 17-10
• @ #8 Ohio State 27-24 OT

Iowa's season started off very inauspiciously, with the Hawks needing to block back-to-back field goals to preserve a 17-16 home win over I-AA Northern Iowa. But they followed that up with three wins over bowl teams, two of them on the road.

At home, though, they struggled again to victories over Arkansas State (24-21, game 5) and Michigan (30-28, game 6). Then it was back to the road and wins over bowl teams Wisconsin and Michigan State. The Indiana game was simply surreal and at this point it looked like, despite their shortcomings, the Hawks might end up undefeated. But their luck reversed against Northwestern (at home, of course) as Stanzi was sacked and coughed up the ball in the end zone; he was out for the rest of the season. Backup James Vanderberg did a good job against Ohio State but they fell just short of a Rose Bowl berth on the road. They shut out Minnesota to close the season.

Iowa's defense has played very well at times but even they've had their bad moments, giving up 21 to Arkansas State, 28 to Michigan, and 24 to Indiana, all at home. But in the first two games one touchdown each was due to an interception return, and Stanzi threw five picks against Indiana. The D was a bit better in the two losses, and other than that was excellent. Basically whenever the offense doesn't shoot it in the foot, the defense delivers.

Turnovers gained projection: Georgia Tech 2.5     Iowa 1.7

Due to Stanzi's propensity to throw interceptions, Georgia Tech has the expected turnover advantage. Meanwhile Iowa's ball-Hawking defense (20 interceptions) is wasted for the most part on Georgia Tech, who throws the ball so little that they've thrown just 5 all year. But on a per-attempt basis that's about average, so Iowa could pick one off when they go to their high-risk, high-reward pass plays. The Wreck hold onto the ball very well considering how often they run the ball, and Iowa rarely fumbles, either.

Sacks projected:  Georgia Tech: 1.4   Iowa: 1.1

Georgia Tech is 2nd in the nation in fewest sacks allowed (adjusted for opposition), mostly because they hardly ever throw the ball. So Iowa's #26 ranking in sacks is mostly wasted, they're expected to get just one. Beyond end Derrick Morgan (12.5 sacks) Georgia Tech is poor at pressuring the quarterback, so they will most likely not get to Stanzi too often even though he's been dropped 21 times.

Psychology

Both teams are pretty happy with getting to a BCS bowl this year. Georgia Tech didn't really have realistic national title aspirations at the beginning of the year and they lost early. But they persevered and won the ACC. Iowa certainly didn't figure to be in the mix for the national title given their tough Big Ten road schedule, but as the wins mounted so did hope with Iowa fans. Those hopes were dashed against Northwestern, and one week later their Rose Bowl hopes were gone. So in some ways, this is a third-best for what Iowa was hoping for just several weeks ago. But the way that Iowa won games and lived on the edge, the team has to accept that a BCS bowl is a great outcome. Though they could have been undefeated, they also could have been about 7-5 just as easily.

Final analysis

Lately some have been predicting a big win for Georgia Tech based on the winning performances of Navy and Air Force, saying that defenses can't adapt quickly to the option. The Air Force comparison is worthless, as they intercepted Case Keenum six times and Houston has a horrible defense. The Navy win over Missouri is more relevant, since Missouri has a strong rushing defense—better than Iowa's—and still lost big. Iowa's scoring defense is far better than Missouri's, but they haven't seen an offense like Georgia Tech's.

But Georgia Tech's defense is no great wonder itself. Even if the Nesbitt and Dwyer run rampant, their team's defense has to hold Iowa down to some extent. Iowa's offense has always done just enough to win or be very, very close, and they've managed that against defenses a whole lot better than Georgia Tech's. Basically Iowa is like Big Ten brethren Northwestern—they play to the level of their competition. Iowa just had a harder schedule than the Wildcats, so they look like a much better team, but when they met it was very even. Beating Arkansas State at home by three and losing to Ohio State by 3 on the road are par for Iowa's course. Don't doubt they can hang with the Yellow Jackets, even manhandle them the way they did Penn State and Wisconsin, who, along with Ohio State, beat favored teams LSU, Miami, and Oregon this bowl season.

Ultimately Iowa's offense is too capricious, even with (or especially with) Stanzi back at full strength. If the Hawkeyes play to their full potential they could run away with the game, but they never played to that potential on both offense and defense in the same game. With Stanzi always interception- and mistake-prone, it's hard to count on the Hawkeyes to deliver the win. I don't doubt, though, that they could be driving at the end, with Stanzi looking to engineer yet another comeback...

Prediction: Georgia Tech 30  Iowa 27

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2009-2010 bowl game schedule.

New Stat - Adjusted Sacks, Sacks Allowed

The latest statistic I've run through the power rating ringer is sacks and sacks allowed. This gives a better idea of which teams are really good at pressuring the quarterback, as it accounts for the offensive lines and quarterbacks that they face. Conversely those offensive lines are rated, too, by adjusting for the strength of the pass rushes they face.

Late in the 2009-2010 season, here are the top ten pass rushes in college football:

Rank Team                        MRec     Sacks[rnk]  Allowed[rnk]
  1. Pittsburgh                  11-1     3.45 [  1]    0.96 [ 15]
  2. Texas Tech                   7-3     3.44 [  2]    2.13 [ 75]
  3. Florida                     10-3     3.27 [  3]    2.06 [ 71]
  4. Nebraska                     8-1     3.21 [  4]    1.10 [ 20]
  5. Syracuse                     5-4     3.07 [  5]    2.06 [ 70]
  6. Central Florida              7-3     3.06 [  6]    2.80 [102]
  7. Oklahoma                    10-1     2.98 [  7]    0.79 [  7]
  8. Wisconsin                    7-3     2.98 [  8]    1.81 [ 55]
  9. Oregon                      10-1     2.97 [  9]    0.83 [  9]
 10. Virginia Tech                5-6     2.93 [ 10]    2.35 [ 86]

The "MRec" column reflects the number of games in which they won or lost the sacks battle.

Pittsburgh, who is #1 in raw sacks with 47, retains the top spot when adjusted for competition. Nebraska is #2 in raw stats but falls to #4, with Florida (raw #13) getting a big boost from the adjustment all the way to #3.

Here are the best offensive lines in terms of protecting the quarterback (partly his own job, too, so of course the quarterback gets credit, but in some cases there are multiple QBs):

Rank Team                        MRec     Sacks[rnk]  Allowed[rnk]
  1. Stanford                     7-3     1.48 [ 89]    0.28 [  1]
  2. Georgia Tech                 7-1     1.51 [ 87]    0.43 [  2]
  3. Oklahoma St                  9-3     2.38 [ 37]    0.50 [  3]
  4. Georgia                      8-2     2.40 [ 35]    0.71 [  4]
  5. East Carolina               10-3     1.67 [ 79]    0.72 [  5]
  6. Michigan St                 10-2     2.50 [ 30]    0.76 [  6]
  7. Oklahoma                    10-1     2.98 [  7]    0.79 [  7]
  8. Arizona                     10-2     2.84 [ 12]    0.80 [  8]
  9. Oregon                      10-1     2.97 [  9]    0.83 [  9]
 10. Boise St                    11-1     0.96 [113]    0.84 [ 10]

Boise State is #1 in the raw stats, giving up only 5 sacks all year, just 0.38 per game. But when adjusted for their weak-pass-rushing opponents, they fall to #10, and Stanford (#2 raw) takes over the top spot.

Georgia Tech is #2, and it's clear why they don't suffer a lot of sacks as they run almost all of the time. These figures are per-game, not per-play. They do accurately reflect how many sacks the YellowJackets are expected to get in a given game—assuming they don't start passing every down completely out of character!

Of course, Georgia Tech's triple-option brethren Army and Air Force (#5 and #7 raw) don't fare as well when adjusted. They fall to #24 and #19 respectively, showing how the adjustment for opponents affects the situation.

Pitting these two statistics together we can get an estimate of how many sacks each team will have during a game—this is exactly like using a score-based power rating to get a score estimate. The difference is that these numbers are very small, so there will be a lot more variation in actual results. They're a lot like the Turnover Margin estimates, except that turnovers are far more random and unpredictable.

For usefullness in making predictions, therefore, the Sacks and Sacks Allowed stats fall somewhere in-between the Strength Power Rating and the Turnover Margin estimates. Their main purpose, for which they are very effective, is to more accurately rank teams and their offensive and defensive lines based on sacks and sacks allowed.

2010 Cotton, Alamo, Liberty, PapaJohn's.com, and International Bowl Results/Final Scores

Cotton Bowl: Mississippi 21, Oklahoma State 7 

Dexter McCluster rushed for 182 yards and two touchdowns to lead Ole Miss to a 21-7 win over Oklahoma State. McCluster blazed down the sidelines outrunning every Cowboy defender on an amazing 86 yard touchdown run that broke a 0-0 tie in the second quarter. The 7-0 lead stood at halftime.

Running back Keith Toston took the snap in the 3rd quarter from the 2-yard line and completed a jump-pass to Wilson Youman that tied the game at 7-7.

After a Zac Robinson fumble in the 4th quarter McCluster scored the go-ahead touchdown from 2-yards out. Then with four minutes to go, a completed pass by the Cowboys was fumbled, then Patrick Trahan returned the fumble 34 yards for a touchdown, giving the Rebels a two touchdown margin.

Mississippi (9-4) became a rare 4-loss team to win—the first one this bowl season that wasn't matched up against another 4-loss team. #21 Oklahoma State became a 4-loss team themselves and will almost certainly fall out of the SportsRatings Top 25. Mississippi's win over LSU makes it likely that they will finish in the top 25.

Alamo Bowl: Texas Tech 41, Michigan State 31

Stephen Sheffield took over for an injured Taylor Potts and Texas Tech scored a touchdown after converting two fourth downs late in the game to secure a 41-31 win over Michigan State in a back-and-forth game.

Baron Batch put the Raiders on the board first with a 3 yard touchdown run, but Michigan State tied the score with a 46-yard Edwin Baker run.

Texas Tech went up in the second quarter with a field goal, then Potts hit Lyle Leong over the middle for a touchdown and a 17-7 lead. The Spartans responded with a 48-yard TD pass from Kirk Cousins to Keshawn Martin. Tech led 20-14 at the half.

Keith Nichol scored on a 7 yard run in the 2nd half to close the Spartans within one, 21-20. Potts responded by hitting Jacoby Franks for a 14 yard touchdown.

The Spartans' next scoring drive featured passes completed by three different passers: Cousins completed a 49 yard pass to Blair White; Aaron Bates passed to Charlie Gantt to the right for 19 yard gain on a 4th down fake field goal; then receiver Martin threw the touchdown pass to White. The Spartans were again behind by one, 28-27. They took their first lead, 31-28, on a field goal in the fourth quarter.

Sheffield came into the game and picked the Raiders up, marching them down the field and capping the drive with an 11 yard touchdown pass to Detron Lewis. Lewis had 110 yards on the night.

Cousins was intercepted and Tech kept a drive going to run out the clock; in Spartan territory they went for it twice on fourth down, resulting in a 13-yard TD run by Batch. Batch had 98 yards rushing.

Potts was 30 of 44 for 385 yards and 2 touchdowns; Sheffield was 9 of 11 for 88 yards and 1 TD. Sheffield started four games this season when Potts had a concussion, and his numbers were even better than Potts' in general.

Texas Tech finishes 9-4 on the year; they probably won't make the SportsRatings Top 25 since they lost to fellow 9-4 teams Oklahoma State and Houston in head-to-head meetings. Michigan State falls to 6-7 with the loss, a very disappointing result marred by the team's recent issues. Texas Tech, of course, has issues of its own that are still ongoing, but they may have found a new head coach tonight in Ruffin McNeill.

Liberty Bowl: Arkansas 20, East Carolina 17 OT

Arkansas got help from three missed field goals by East Carolina—all potential game-winners—to beat the Pirates 20-17 in overtime.

Instead of being an offensive battle the first quarter was scoreless. In the second quarter Patrick Pinkney and the Pirates sustained two drives, the first ending in a Dominique Lindsay touchdown run, the second a Ben Hartman field goal, and East Carolina took a 10-0 halftime lead.

Arkansas tied the score thanks to their defense, who intercepted Pinkney twice. This first one led to an Alex Tejada field goal, the second was returned 38 yards by Tramain Thomas for a touchdown.

Pinkney came back, completing a touchdown pass to Dwayne Harris. Still in the third quarter, though, Arkansas' offense finally got into the act, with Ryan Mallett hitting Jarius Wright for a 41 yard TD strike and it was 17-17.

Arkansas' Tejada missed a 44-yard field goal early in the 4th quarter, but Hartman had worse luck. With one minute left he missed a 39 yarder, then following an Arkansas three-and-out, he missed another one of the same length as time expired. The first kick hit the upright; the second was wide right.

Hartman's bad luck would continue in overtime, as he missed a 35-yarder to the left. On his turn, Tejada made the game-winning kick.

East Carolina fell to 9-5 and missed their shot to finish in the top 25; Arkansas improves to 8-5.

PapaJohns.com Bowl: Connecticut 20, South Carolina 7

Connecticut gave tribute to Jasper Howard, beating South Carolina 20-7. Andre Dixon rushed for 126 yards and a touchdown as the Huskies built a 20-0 lead on the Gamecocks.

It was 10-0 in the first quarter; Zach Frazer passed to Kashif Moore for 37 yards, then Dave Teggart added a 33-yard field goal. His 44-yarder in the second quarter gave them a 13-0 lead at the half.

Dixon scored on a 10-yard run in the fourth quarter to make it 20-0. South Carolina scored late after Stephen Garcia's 38-yard pass led to a short TD run by Brian Maddox to prevent the shutout.

Connecticut ended 8-5 in a year marred by Howard's death. South Carolina fell to 7-6, once again a disappointing end to a mediocre season for Steve Spurrier.

International Bowl: South Florida 27, Northern Illinois 3

Mike Ford rushed for 206 yards and B.J. Daniels threw two touchdown passes as South Florida beat Northern Illinois 27-3 in Toronto.

The teams traded field goals in the first half resulting in a 3-3 tie. Another field goal followed for USF, then Daniels' TD passes, both to A.J. Love, and South Florida was in control at 21-3 early in the fourth quarter.

Love ran 24 yards for a touchdown late in the game to cap the scoring. South Florida finished an up and down year 8-5, while Northern Illinois fell to 7-6.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2009-2010 schedule with previews and results.

2010 Fiesta Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: TCU vs. Boise State

Monday January 4th: Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ 8:00 pm eastern

#3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) vs. #4 Boise State Broncos (13-0)

The two non-BCS-conference BCS teams are matched up in a bowl game for the second straight year.

Vegas line/spread: TCU by 7 1/2 (over/under 55).

TCU is just over a touchdown favorite to win the battle of the unbeatens.

Strength Power Rating:      TCU 34   Boise State 27

The Strength power rating agrees with the oddsmakers almost exactly, with TCU just over a 7.5 point favorite. When rounding off the projected score TCU wins by a touchdown. The two are very close in offensive scoring rankings; when adjusted for opposition TCU ranks 4th in the nation and Boise State 6th. But TCU's defense is the difference-maker, ranking 6th the Boise State's 33rd.

Yardage analysis:   TCU 31  Boise State 17     per attempt: TCU 37  Boise State 21

By yardage the difference is larger as TCU is #2 in the nation in yardage differential (corrected for opposition), while Boise State is only #15. Boise State's offense, which is 8th in total offense using raw numbers, ranks just 24th when adjusted for their weak-defense opponents. TCU ranks 6th, and their defense is #4 while Boise State is 21st. The per-attempt projection is even wider, but the per-play numbers are a bit funky for both teams and don't reflect how they choose to balance their offenses.

When TCU has the ball
TCU rushing offense: #5    per att: #13      Boise State rushing defense: #60   per att: #82
TCU passing offense: #56  per att: #7        Boise State passing defense: #10   per att: #27

The first thing we notice is that TCU's offensive strength is Boise State's defensive weakness. The Broncos aren't tough against the run, but they rank well against the pass. But TCU is remarkably an above-average passing team despite being 110th in attempts, so their per-attempt figures are stellar. And Boise State's passing defense on a per-play basis isn't top notch, so the Horned Frogs should be able to move the ball either way. I suspect they'll stick to the run as they have all season.

TCU has four players with over 500 rushing yards, including quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton's efficient passing is what gives them top ten per-play figures; he's hit 62% for 2,484 yards and 22 TDs with just 5 interceptions. Boise State is 3rd in the nation in interceptions so it should be an interesting matchup on third downs or if TCU falls behind, which are the only cases I think they'd need to throw the ball at all.

When Boise State has the ball
Boise State rushing offense: #48  per att: #25      TCU rushing defense: #11  per att: #20
Boise State passing offense: #31  per att: #26      TCU passing defense: #4    per att: #8

Boise State's offense looks mediocre by their yardage rankings. Strangely their per-play numbers look better, despite the fact that they run quite a few plays which normally would lower them. But there's no question that Kellen Moore is having a fantastic year: 65% completions for 3,325 yards and 39 touchdowns with only 3 interceptions and amazingly just 5 sacks. Two of his receivers are nearing the 1,000 yard mark—Titus Young and Austin Pettis—though Pettis is questionable for the game, which is a concern. TCU has a very solid pass defense. They rank high in interceptions but against the Broncos they will see few if any. They also boast one of the nation's sack leaders in end Jerry Hughes, setting up a challenge for both he and Boise State's rock-solid offensive line. TCU's pass D is certainly good enough to slow Moore down, but without great pressure or big plays it will probably be a bend-but-don't-break situation.

The Broncos run the ball well, too, led by Jeremy Avery's 1,1131 yards and Doug Martin's 14 touchdowns. Again, TCU has an answer in their stout defense, which should match up equally or better. The Frogs will have to police both the run and pass equally. It may come down to battles in the red zone, where both Boise's offense and TCU's defense are strong.

One reason for Boise's low offensive yardage numbers is their return game, which often leaves them a short field (so that they get points without a lot of yardage). They're 5th in kickoff returns, with receiver Young among the nation's best.

Game-comparison win %      vs. spread     expanded win%    vs. spread
TCU                      66.7%       47.4%              65.7%               49.9%
Boise State           33.3%       52.6%              34.3%                50.1%

TCU's game ratings are better than Boise State's to the point where TCU should be expected to win 2/3 of all potential games between the teams, based on their game performances so far this year. Against the spread, though, Boise State covers the majority of the time, though it's close as the average margin is almost equal to the spread.

The "expanded win%" method takes the game-comparison system a step further: Using a team's offensive and defensive performances, and cross-combining those to square the number of potential game performances. That is, for each of TCU's 12 games, for example, their offense and defense ratings are combined into 144 potential game performances. These are compared to each of Boise State's 169 (13 x 13) performances, yielding over 24,000 possible outcomes. In this method, which gives a broader array of outcomes, TCU wins 65.7% and against the spread it's very nearly 50/50.

TCU's key games

Wins over bowl-eligible teams (6):

• @ Clemson 14-10 (3rd game of season)
• Southern Methodist 39-14 (4th game)
• @ Air Force 20-17 (5th)
• @ #10 BYU 38-7 (7th)
• #15 Utah 55-28 (10th)
• @ Wyoming 45-10 (11th)

Losses (0):

• none

TCU's schedule has been criticized as weak since they play in the Mountain West, whose bottom half is less than stellar. But not only did TCU beat six bowl opponents, four of those games were on the road and ALL six of them won their bowl games this post-season.

After a shaky start against Virginia (30-14 in game 1) and less-than-dominant performances at Clemson and Air Force, they showed how good they could be against top 25 foes BYU and Utah, crushing both of their top MWC foes later in the year. Their play in the 2nd half of the year has been particularly strong as their offense got better each week. The defense chart shows some letdown near the end of the year, but mostly because they played teams with weak offenses; no game outcomes were in doubt in the games where the defense ranks lower.

Boise State's key games

Wins over bowl-eligible teams (5):

• #7 Oregon 19-8 (1st game of season)
• @ Fresno State 51-34 (3rd game)
• @ Bowling Green 49-14 (4th)
• Idaho 63-25 (10th)
• Nevada 44-33 (11th)

Losses (0):

• none

Like TCU, Boise State's schedule has been questioned, but their win over Oregon shows that they belong in the BCS. They beat 5 bowl teams, 1 fewer than TCU, and unlike the Horned Frogs those teams didn't do well. In fact, only one of the five won their bowl game, and that's because two of them (Bowling Green and Idaho) were matched up in the Humanitarian Bowl.

Boise State has had only a handful of games where they played exceptional football. They played very well against Oregon, Miami of Ohio (48-0, game 2), Bowling Green, at Hawaii (54-9, game 7), and Idaho and Nevada. But none of those necessarily were stunning. And while beating Oregon was impressive—especially defensively, where it was an off-the-charts performance—the Bronco defense's subsequent performances indicate that it was probably Oregon's offense that was having a bad day. For the rest of the season Boise State's D was above-average, average, or very questionable, particularly in the 2nd half of the season.

Turnovers gained projection: TCU 1.8     Boise State 1.8

An average amount of turnovers is expected, and no advantage is expected for either team. Boise State's gains might be interceptions as they are #3 in the nation in that stat, though TCU doesn't throw many and fumbles the ball quite a bit. TCU will probably have to depend on forcing fumbles, as Moore has just three interceptions this year.

Sacks projected:  TCU: 1.4   Boise State: 0.02

Both teams are good at defending the quarterback. Boise State is #1 in the nation with only 5 sacks—but when adjusted for their weak competition they're just 10th best in the country. TCU has a good pass rush (#29) so they should get one, maybe two sacks. Boise State's pass rush is very weak (only #113 when adjusted) and TCU is #17 at sack protection. Consequently, it will be unusual if Boise State does sack Dalton at all. The average number of sacks per game is around two per team, so both of these figures are low. Don't expect quarterback pressure to be a huge part of this game.

Psychology

Both teams are probably an equal combination of high and low for this game: initial disappointment on both sides for repeating last year's game, and also not being able to test their mettle against a BCS conference opponent; and excitement for being in a BCS bowl and playing in a battle of undefeated teams. Boise State has been to the BCS before, and TCU hasn't, but that shouldn't affect things. TCU hasn't had an undefeated season recently, while for Boise State it's an every-couple-of-years event. I don't see either team as more pumped up emotionally, though a small edge may go to TCU, this being their big year.

Final analysis

Boise State hasn't shown the ability to raise their game to the highest level, combining both offense and defense, so I think it would take a very poor game on TCU's part to lose this game. That almost happened last year, in a game TCU dominated the Broncos statistically but eeked out a 1 point win in the Poinsettia Bowl. And Oregon laid an egg in the open and Boise came away with the win. So it's not impossible, just unlikely.

Unless they pull a Duck and inexplicably can't run on Boise State, TCU should run away with the game. On defense they match up well with the Broncos; though sacks and (especially) interceptions will be hard to come by, their secondary is good enough to keep Moore at bay, relatively speaking of course, and if Pettis doesn't play that's one more strike against Boise.

But mainly TCU is just a better team. Both squads are improved from last year's Poinsettia Bowl matchup, but TCU is truly among the nation's elite; Boise is closer to Cincinnati, while TCU is right up there with Florida, Alabama, and Texas. Evidence A is the performance of the bowl teams they played: 6-0, vs. Boise's bowl opponents: 1-4. On top of that, TCU has given their best performances against the top teams they played. When they needed to prove it, they did. I expect a fairly easy TCU win.

Prediction: TCU 45  Boise State 28

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2009-2010 bowl game schedule.

2010 Sugar Bowl Results - Florida Destroys Cincinnati, Final Score: 51-24

Florida jumped out early, scoring 21 2nd quarter points and coasting to a 51-24 win over Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl. Tim Tebow passed for three touchdowns and ran for another in his final game as a Gator, while the defense shut down Tony Pike and the Bearcat offense for most of the game.

The first quarter was relatively subdued as Florida managed one touchdown—a Tebow pass to Aaron Hernandez—followed by a missed extra point and a field goal to lead 9-0.

But Florida's defense didn't allow Pike any breathing room as they pressured him and harrassed his receivers with monster hits. Cincinnati managed just three points in the first half, and Florida added two Tebow TD passes—one to Riley Cooper for 80 yards—and a field goal to lead 30-3 at the break.

Emmanuel Moody's TD run in the third quarter gave the Gators their biggest lead at 37-3, after which the teams traded touchdowns as Pike and company finally got going once the game was out of reach. Pike threw three short touchdown passes in the second half to Marcus Waugh, Armon Binns, and Kazeem Alli.

In-between, Tebow got his touchdown run and Chris Rainey also scored. Little-used back Mike Gillislee almost got into the act at the end, rushing five times for 79 yards including a 52-yard burst, but Florida mercifully and properly ended the game at the Cincinnati four yard line.

Tebow had a spectacular final outing, passing for 482 yards and completing 31 of 35 passes on a Cincinnati defense that was questionable all year and had faded late in the season. Tebow also ran for 51 yards. Cooper finished with 188 receiving yards and Hernandez went over 100 for the game as well.

Pike had a remarkably decent game statistically considering the pressure he was under (4 sacks) and having several well-thrown balls dropped or broken up by Florida's aggressive secondary. He finished 27 of 45 for 170 yards and wasn't intercepted.

The game was Tebow's last at Florida and maybe Urban Meyer's, too, though the coach has changed his mind a lot the last few weeks and almost certainly will over the next several months before the 2010 season starts. The #6 Gators finished 13-1 and will move up in the SportsRatings Top 25 depending on the results of the TCU-Boise State and Texas-Alabama game, possibly as high as #2 but probably #3 or #4, still a disappointment for a team that expected to be a dominant #1.

#5 Cincinnati (12-1) lost their coach and now their perfect record, but it was still the team's best season and they shouldn't be judged solely on this game, as the circumstances for a blowout were perfectly aligned. The final score was very similar to last year's game at Oklahoma, which ended in a 52-26 Bearcat loss.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2009-2010 schedule with previews and results.

2010 Rose Bowl Results - Final Score: Ohio State 26, Oregon 17

Terrelle Pryor passed for two touchdowns and Ohio State held on to win a back-and-forth Rose Bowl.

Pryor ran well on the first drive despite a "weak" knee, then hit Brandon Saine who tiptoed the sidelines and broke a tackle to score from 13 yards out. Aaron Pettrey hit the extra point but later it was Devin Barclay who kicked a 19 yard field goal to put the Buckeyes up 10-0.

Oregon came back with a Kenjon Barner 37-yard run setting up a 24-yard field goal. The Ducks' defense harassed Pryor effectively and forced a punt, which Barner returned to Ohio State's 30 yard line. A few plays later LeGarrette Blount—playing in his second game back from suspension—reached across the goal while lying on a Buckeye defender to tie the score at 10.

Pryor led Ohio State on an eight minute drive that ended in another Barclay field goal, then Jeremiah Masoli threw an interception that led to another Ohio State field goal—this time by Pettrey. The Buckeyes took a 16-10 lead into the locker room.

Barner had another big return past midfield to start the 2nd half, and Masoli converted a fourth down pass before taking it in from 1 yard out to put the Ducks up, 17-16.

Pryor fired back with a huge pass to DeVier Posey for 36 yards, setting up another field goal—Barclay this time—to make it 19-16 Buckeyes. Oregon's response was a drive deep inside Ohio State territory that ended when Blount fumbled a handoff and inadvertantly kicked the ball into the end zone for a touchback. Pryor was intercepted on the following series, and the teams traded punts to end the third quarter.

In the fourth quarter Pryor threw up a prayer on 3rd down and completed a 24 yard pass, then later on the same drive found Posey in the end zone to put Ohio State up 26-17. With the help of another great return Oregon threatened but missed a field goal rather than going for it on fourth down. Pryor and the Buckeyes ran out the clock to claim the victory.

#8 Ohio State finally won a bowl game after several years of futility, giving the Big Ten its first Rose Bowl win in ten years, finishing 11-2. #7 Oregon fell to 10-3, with Masoli held under 100 yards passing and just 9 yards rushing.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2009-2010 schedule with previews and results.

2010 Capital One Bowl Results - Final Score: Penn State 19, LSU 17

LSU took the lead late but Penn State's Colin Wagner kicked four field goals—of 26, 18, 20, and 21 yards—to lift the Nittany Lions to victory in the Capital One Bowl.

Daryll Clark's 38-yard strike to Derek Moye was the only score in the first quarter in rainy, sloppy conditions in Orlando. An LSU field goal and two by Penn State made it 13-3 Penn State at the half. 

Penn State extended their lead to 16-3 with another short field goal. Then Jordan Jefferson found Brandon LaFell for a 24 yard touchdown to cut the lead to 6.

A 38-yard punt return by Trindon Holliday was followed by a 39-yard pass play from Jefferson to Terrance Toliver; Stevan Ridley did the honors for LSU and the Tigers had the lead 17-16.

Clark drove the team downfield late; they were stopped inside the five but Wagner hit his fourth field to give the Nittany Lions a 19-17 edge with one minute left. LSU got into Penn State territory but a questionable penalty and more bad clock management from the Tigers left them with 3 seconds and they couldn't come up with a miracle play.

#12 Penn State finishes the year 11-2 and has their first big win, and Joe Paterno's 24th bowl win; the team's only losses this season are to BCS bowl teams Iowa and Ohio State. #14 LSU suffers their fourth loss, falling to 9-4 on the year. Their other losses were to Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida, but they couldn't win the big game this year.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2009-2010 schedule with previews and results.

2010 Gator Bowl Results - Final Score: Florida State 33, West Virginia 21

Bobby Bowden went out a winner as Florida State rallied from a 14-3 deficit to take control and beat West Virginia 33-21 in the Gator Bowl. Jermaine Thomas ran for two touchdowns and Dustin Hopkins kicked four field goals for the Seminoles.

The Mountaineers' ground game made the big plays early, with quarterback Jarrett Brown rushing for a 32 yard touchdown. Later in the first quarter Noel Devine rumbled for 70 yards inside the 5, then ran it in from the 1-yard line to put West Virginia up 14-3.

But the Seminoles came back as Thomas rushed for a 12 yard touchdown. Dustin Hopkins kicked his second field goal and FSU was behind just 14-13 at the half.

More of the same in the third quarter: Another field goal by Hopkins and another TD run by Thomas, this time for 19 yards. FSU led 23-14 but West Virginia drove and scored on the first play of the fourth quarter to pull within 2, 23-21.

The Seminoles responded with an E.J. Manuel 2-yard run and they led 30-21 with minutes to go. Hopkins added a field goal—his fourth of the day—to extend the lead with minutes to go. West Virginia was unable to get any closer.

Bowden's amazing career comes to an end on an up note, with his 7-6 squad maintaining his string of 33 winning seasons. The circumstances of his leaving weren't perfect, or even good at all, but with his final game he leaves a winner, a situation he became familiar with in his 34 years at FSU. #17 West Virginia—where Bowden coached prior to FSU—falls to 9-4.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2009-2010 schedule with previews and results.

2010 Outback Bowl Results - Final Score Auburn 38, Northwestern 35 OT

Auburn intercepted Mike Kafka five times, including one returned 100 yards for a touchdown, but couldn't put Northwestern away until overtime, finally winning 38-35.

Walter McFadden got his first pick early and it led to Auburn's first score on a 1-yard gain by Kodi Burns. McFadden's second pick was a killer: Northwestern was driving and in the red zone when McFadden grabbed a pass in one end zone and ran all the way to the other, giving Auburn a 14-0 lead.

Kafka snapped back with a 39 yard TD strike to Andrew Brewer to put the Wildcats on the board.

In the second quarter Chris Todd found Quindarius Carr for a 46 yard touchdown to make it 21-7. And just before the half ended, Kafka—driving the team downfield again—was intercepted in the end zone and Northwestern, who could have been up 21-7, were instead down by that score at the half.

Kafka was intercepted again early in the second half, but then he went to work, tying the game on two huge pass plays, one for 35 yards to Brewer and the other to Drake Dunsmore for 66 yards. The game was tied, 21-21, at the end of the third quarter.

But early in the fourth quarter he was picked again. Auburn's offense got started up again and Ben Tate scored from 5 and 7 yards out, the latter set up by a 50-yard run by Terrell Zachary, to take a 35-21 lead.

Once again, Kafka bounced back, converting three fourth downs, finally scoring on a quarterback keeper that resembled a rugby scrum. The extra point was blocked, however, keeping the score 35-27, but after an Auburn fumble Northwestern scored again and got a 2 point conversion to tie it.

Northwestern recovered yet another fumble on the kickoff return but missed a 44-yard field goal in regulation.

Auburn had the ball first in overtime and Wes Byrum hit a field goal. On Northwestern's possession, Auburn thought they had the win twice: first on a Kafka fumble (which was overturned), and then on a missed field goal attempt (after which the kicker was roughed). Finally, with no real kicker, Northwestern faked a field goal from the 5 yard line and came up short.

Kafka threw the ball an incredible 78 times, completing 47 for well over 500 yards through the air for four touchdowns. The teams combined for over 1,000 yards of offense.

Auburn and Northwestern both finish 8-5. The jink of 8-4 teams continues, as no team with 4 losses has won their bowl game unless paired against another 4-loss team.

More College Football Bowls: Go here for the full 2009-2010 schedule with previews and results.

2009-2010 Bowl Results: Performance by Conference

Here are the results for the 2009-2010 bowl season through January 7th, 2010.

Formula: Win gets one point; loss subtracts one. Add difference in expected vs. actual wins, and covering/not covering the spread.

Conference   Expected   Actual   diff  wins±  vs. spread  diff   Points
Mtn. West      1-4       4-1      +3     +3      4-1       +3      +9
Big Ten        1-6       4-3      +3     +1      5-2       +3      +7
Big East       4-2       4-2       0     +2      3-2-1     +1      +3
(Ind.)         0-1       1-0      +1     +1      1-0       +1      +3
Sun Belt       0-2       1-1      +1      0      1-0-1     +1      +2
WAC            2-2       2-2       0      0      2-2        0       0
SEC            8-2       6-4      -2     +2      4-6       -2      -2
Big 12         4-4       4-4       0      0      3-5       -2      -2
ACC            4-3       3-4      -1     -1      3-3-1      0      -2
C-USA          2-4       2-4       0     -2      3-3        0      -2
Pac 10         5-2       2-5      -3     -3      3-4       -1      -7
MAC            3-2       1-4      -2     -3      0-4-1     -4      -9

Expected = who the oddsmakers favored in the conference's games
Actual = the conference actual bowl record
diff1 = difference between expected and actual performance
wins± = actual wins minus actual losses
vs. spread = how the conference did against the spread in all their games
diff2 = spread "wins" minus spread "losses"
Points: sum of columns diff1, wins±, and diff2

The Mountain West took their only hit of the bowl season with TCU's loss, but they will still finish as the best performing conference by results and exceeding expectations. BYU and Utah both beat Pac-10 foes, while Air Force upset Houston in a big way and even Wyoming got an upset win.

The Big Ten finished #2. Expected to be 1-6, the conference went 4-3 with wins over Oregon, Georgia Tech, LSU, and Miami, and beat the spread five out of seven games. Not bad for the much-maligned league. 

The Pac-10 lost five of seven when they were expected to win five of seven. They did worse than any conference except the MAC, and that's a year after famously going 5-0 in bowl games. Central Michigan gave the MAC their sole win of the bowl season as they placed last among conferences.

The SEC suffered from not quite living up to high expectations but a win by Alabama Thursday night gave the conference its fourth straight national championship. The Big 12 was right behind them in bowl performance despite an off year and Texas' loss.

The Big East went 4-2 which was expected, though UConn got an upset win and favored West Virginia fell to Florida State. Georgia Tech's loss to Iowa dropped the ACC's bowl performance into slight disappoinment territory.

Among independents, only Navy played in a bowl as Notre Dame opted out and Army didn't qualify, though they were lined up for the EagleBank Bowl if they had defeated Navy. The Midshipmen upset Missouri to give this non-conference group a win.

Sun Belt champ Troy lost in double overtime and dropped the Trojans' conference into the middle of the pack, while Boise State's win over TCU saved face for the WAC, who started out with two upset losses but closed with two upset wins. Conference USA finished exactly how they were expected to at 2-4.

2010 Alamo Bowl Preview, Odds, and Prediction: Texas Tech vs. Michigan State

Saturday January 2nd: Alamo Bowl in San Antonio, TX 9:00 pm eastern

Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4) vs. Michigan State Spartans (6-6)

Both teams come into this bowl game under a cloud.

Vegas line/spread: Texas Tech by 7 1/2 (over/under 59 1/2).

Texas Tech is still about a touchdown favorite to win a high-scoring game despite all the Mike Leach drama.

Strength Power Rating:      Texas Tech 38   Michigan State 24

The Strength power rating considers Tech a 14 point favorite, as they rank in the top ten while the Spartans aren't even in the top 50, which would suggest about a 16 point spread even without adding home field advantage for playing in-state. But in the more precise 726-team rankings, which include all games in all divisions, it's a bit closer. Texas Tech's scoring offense is ranked 8th to Michigan State's 38th, but it's not just a discrepancy on offense, with the Raiders ranking 24th in scoring defense to the Spartans' #72. Who knows how much difference this will make given all that has transpired for both teams, but if it all cancels out the Raiders should be a comfortable winner.

Yardage analysis:   Texas Tech 40  Michigan St 24     per attempt: Michigan St 27  Texas Tech 26

Texas Tech is #2 in the nation in total offense when adjusted for opposition, and rank 6th in yardage differential to their opponents. They're 33rd in total adjusted defense. Michigan State is 33rd on offense and 55th on defense. With both teams at #33 in one matchup and a major discrepancy on the other, the projected score against favors the Red Raiders by a large amount.

Interestingly the per-attempt figures give Michigan State some hope. That's because Texas Tech passes so much their per-play figures are not nearly as impressive, and the Spartans improve almost across the board.

When Texas Tech has the ball
Texas Tech rushing offense: #110 per att: #88      Michigan State rushing defense: #38   per att: #41
Texas Tech passing offense: #2     per att: #39      Michigan State passing defense: #93   per att: #66

As always, Texas Tech passes the ball almost all the time, resulting in huge passing numbers and miniscule rushing totals. They pass 2/3 of the time and are #2 in the nation in adjusted passing yards. Taylor Potts took over for Graham Harrell and put up some impressive numbers of his own: 3,000+ yards on 66% completions, 20 TDs. But Potts had 12 TDs and was replaced temporarily by Steven Sheffield, who had over 1,000 yards on 73% completions, 13 TDs and just 4 interceptions before he was injured himself. Even 3rd-stringer Seth Doege got into the act, starting one game and getting 2 TD passes. Despite the quarterback inconsistency the Red Raiders had a potent attack most of the time, though Sheffield seemed to be their best performer.

The rarely used running game ranked almost in the bottom 10, and wasn't much better on a per-carry basis. Michigan State shouldn't have to break much of a sweat to contain the running game, so they can focus on the pass. Texas Tech has allowed 30 sacks this year and Michigan State is good at pressuring the quarterback. Potts is more elusive than Sheffield or Doege (8 sacks in 61 attempts!) but it's an area of concern for their one-dimensional offense. They don't have to worry about interceptions as much from the Spartans, who have just 5 all year.

Bottom line, Tech is very productive through the air, but Potts has been somewhat erratic. And MSU's pass defense isn't terrible—it's about average on a per-attempt basis, and they get a lot of sacks which has been a problem for Tech. The advantage they have is a good group of receivers, who have to get open fast so Potts isn't pressured and hit too often. Seven Tech players have 300 or more receiving yards.

When Michigan State has the ball
Michigan State rushing offense: #70  per att: #45      Texas Tech rushing defense: #56  per att: #33
Michigan State passing offense: #23  per att: #16      Texas Tech passing defense: #24  per att: #34

Texas Tech's drama might affect their players' mentality. Michigan State's controversy directly affects their players, with two starting receivers suspended from the game. #2 and #3 receivers B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell accounted for over 1,000 yards and 5 TDs, so they'll need leading receiver Blair White and others to step up in what is the Spartans' main mode of attack this year after the loss of Javon Ringer. This year their leading rusher has just over 400 yards, quite a change.

But quarterback Kirk Cousins has been good considering the pressure he's under, completing 62% for 18 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions. Texas Tech's passing defense is sound. MSU is good at protecting Cousins, which is fortunate as Texas Tech ranks #3 in the nation in sacks. The Red Raiders don't grab many picks, though.

Main kickoff returner Glenn Winston is off the team for good; the Spartans ranked #6 in kickoff returns, while Tech's coverage has been very good, too. The loss of Winston will impact their starting field position.

Game-comparison win %      vs. spread
Texas Tech             71.5%      54.2%
Michigan State       28.5%      45.8% 

Texas Tech's game ratings are far above Michigan State's, and with home field advantage added in Tech wins over 70% of the game cross-comparisons. Even after adding the spread for the Spartans the Raiders win the majority. The 50/50 mark isn't at 14 (the spread picked by the Strength Power Rating) but rather at about 12 1/2 points, due to Tech's variability in play; their average is pulled higher due to a couple of extreme outlier games.

Texas Tech's key games

Wins over bowl-eligible teams (2):

• @ Nebraska 31-10 (7th game of season)
• Oklahoma 41-13 (11th game)

Losses (4):

• @ #2 Texas 34-24
• @ #19 Houston 29-28
• Texas A&M 52-30
• @ #21 Oklahoma State 24-17

Texas Tech only beat two bowl teams all season, but they were big ones, dominating Nebraska and Oklahoma (both of whom won their bowl games) and racking up 72 points against two of the best defenses in the country. They also beat 6-6 Kansas State 66-14 in game 6, their other outlier game. Those three games were far and away the team's top performances, no question at all.

Their worst game was the home loss to Texas A&M, a game where they couldn't find a quarterback who could function or buy a stop on defense. Giving up 28 points to lowly New Mexico was their other pathetic defensive performance but other than that the D was pretty good this year, and fairly stable. The offense gave Mke Leach fits, though, as they struggled to get 38 points against North Dakota in game 1, 28 against Houston, 30 against A&M, and 17 at Oklahoma State. They beat Baylor, 20-13, in their last game, but that was thanks to the defense. Inconsistency on offense has made the team inconsistent as a whole, capable of destroying great teams or getting beat by mediocre ones.

Michigan State's key games

Wins over bowl-eligible teams (X):

• Northwestern 24-14 (7th game of season)

Losses (6):

• #18 C. Michigan 29-27
• @ Notre Dame 33-30
• @ #20 Wisconsin 38-30
• #9 Iowa 15-13
• @ Minnesota 42-34
• #12 Penn State 42-14

Unlike Texas Tech, Michigan State's performances are pretty stable. In games 2 through eight they played the same mediocre football, losing four of seven. The Minnesota loss was a step down, but they recovered with a good win, 49-14, over Western Michigan, played another flat game at Purdue (40-37), then lost big to Penn State in their worst effort.

Though they only lost to bowl-eligible teams, they only beat one: Northwestern. But they nearly beat several others, including Notre Dame, an easy win if Cousins hadn't thrown a terrible pass to a wide open Larry Caper. Central Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota...all were winnable. But over the season it took a toll on the team, and after the Penn State game they took their frustrations out on others.

The offense never really played a horrible game. There were lots of below-average ones, but it's the defense that let the team down late in the year, giving up 42, 37, and 42 against Minnesota, Purdue, and Penn State. That doesn't bode well for a team facing Texas Tech.

Turnovers gained projection: Texas Tech 2.0     Michigan State 1.3

Texas Tech has a small advantage in expected turnovers. They don't get a lot of interceptions but they recover a lot of fumbles. Mainly, though, it's the fact that Michigan State doesn't gain many turnovers at all that puts them slightly ahead. But this is just one more wild card in a game full of them, the biggest of which is how each team responds to adversity, which they've had a lot of lately.

Psychology

Both teams are at a nadir. If I had charts for their biorhythms they'd be at the lowest ebb.

First, Michigan State. It was bad enough that their season sucked. Then they were humiliated at home by Penn State. So some players (dozens?) went across the street to a dorm to confront some frat boys who'd had words with them at a club the night before. Some pushing, shoving, punching of women, perhaps, happened. Players were suspended, some were kicked off the team. A rotten season had become just that much more rotten. At 6-6 they got an Alamo Bowl bid despite the incident, against an underrated Red Raider squad.

But just about a week ago Texas Tech started to crumble with the Adam James incident. Let's not review it, but the upshot is coach Mike Leach has been fired. This can't have a good effect on the team. Even if all the players wanted him to go, which is certainly not close to being the case, it would be at best neutral as there's no way the team can keep its focus. By game time the team's emotional bent is anybody's guess.

And with both team's heads being messed with over the last month or so, how this plays out is impossible to predict. If it were possible for both teams to lose this game, though, it would happen.

Final analysis

While Texas Tech's problems might weigh on them emotionally a lot more than Michigan State's, the Spartans face the actual, physical absence of 10 players, three of them starters.

With two key receivers gone Michigan State's offense has a disadvantage against a good Texas Tech passing defense and they'll face more pressure on Cousins than they have all year. And key cornerback Chris Rucker is gone, which can't be good against one of the most relentless passing attacks in the nation.

Texas Tech won't have coach Leach, who is also the offensive coordinator and play caller, which could be a big challenge for defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill, who will coach the team for the bowl game.

This has got to be the most screwed up bowl game in recent memory. At least when Florida State had scores of players suspended for their bowl game two years ago nothing was happening to the other team. The Florida-Cincinnati game is going to be a headcase but it's got nothing on this one.

I see Tech having some problems getting motivated, running their offense, and even caring at all. At the same time, some of the players (like Potts, who Leach called "Nick" because he said Taylor was a pussy name) might be relieved to have Leach gone. There was a lot of animosity this year between Leach, the team, and their "fat little girl friends."

Michigan State benefits from Tech's distraction. But they have problems of their own, including not being a very good team, having a poor year, and ending the regular season on their worst game. Add to that the suspension/dismissal of 10 players and you've got a really crappy team. Who still might win due to the other team's dysfunction, but I'm guessing they come up short. Tech will be hobbled on offense without their play caller, and the Spartans will be hobbled without their receivers, resulting in an unexpectedly lower scoring game that the Raiders barely win.

Prediction: Texas Tech 21  Michigan State 20

More previews, odds, and predictions: View the complete 2009-2010 bowl game schedule.