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After a divisional playoff round that saw three blowouts, the two conference regular-season champs (New Orleans, Indianapolis) are alive along with the NFC#2 (Minnesota) and one AFC wild card (New York Jets).
NFC Divisional Playoff Results
New Orleans 45, Arizona 14
Minnesota 34, Dallas 3
AFC Divisional Playoff Results
Indianapolis 20, Baltimore 3
New York Jets 17, San Diego 14
Here are the current Strength power rating standings:
num Team record rating offense defense
1. New Orleans 14-3 11.36 33.10 [ 1] 21.73 [ 16]
2. New England 10-7 9.72 27.69 [ 4] 17.97 [ 5]
3. NY Jets 11-7 8.73 22.56 [ 14] 13.82 [ 1]
4. Minnesota 13-4 8.65 28.50 [ 3] 19.84 [ 11]
5. Baltimore 10-8 7.81 23.77 [ 12] 15.96 [ 3]
6. Green Bay 11-6 6.75 28.85 [ 2] 22.09 [ 17]
7. Indianapolis 15-2 6.74 25.70 [ 8] 18.96 [ 9]
8. San Diego 13-4 6.08 27.30 [ 5] 21.22 [ 15]
9. Dallas 12-6 6.07 21.32 [ 17] 15.25 [ 2]
10. Atlanta 9-7 4.70 24.06 [ 11] 19.35 [ 10]
New Orleans ranks #1 as they have for most of the season, with Minnesota coming in at #4. The Jets rank considerably higher than the Colts, who are dragged down by their two "rest-the-starters" losses. We'll take those out in our preview of that game and see if it makes the difference.
Here's our rundown of the conference championships:
NFC: New Orleans Saints (14-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
Vegas line/spread: Saints by 3 1/2
Strength Power Rating Projection: New Orleans 33, Minnesota 27
Game-comparison win %: New Orleans 61.5%
New Orleans has had the #1 ranked offense all year, while their defense has been about average for the league. Minnesota is in the same boat to a lesser degree, with a better defense and not-quite-as-potent offense. But on any given day Bret Favre and Adrian Peterson are just as powerful—and more balanced—than the Saints' Brees-led passing attack. In some ways the Saints are reminiscent of the 2007 New England Patriots, though not as dominant on offense or nearly as good on defense.
New Orleans definitely hit a skid near the end of the season, as they were still trying to seal the top seed in their first two losses—including an embarrassing overtime loss to Tampa Bay at home—and had several close calls before that. Their final loss can be discounted, but the overall trend for the season wasn't good. Much like New England in 2007, the first 2/3 of the season is where they shined.
They came back strong in their playoff win, though, looking like the Saints of the early season, and playing one of thir best games. Of course, it's hard to grade New Orleans' offense against a Cardinal defense that gave up 45 points the game before, but the Saints' defense did a good job.
The Vikings' last game was just as good or better, though, making the game a tossup. In fact the Vikes' last two games—the 44-7 romp over the Giants and the 34-3 crushing of Dallas—are their best efforts of the season. While the Giants had nothing to play for, Dallas certainly did, and both the Viking offense and defense had a fantastic game.
The Strength ratings have New Orleans a good six point favorite, and discounting the Saints' final game makes it and even touchdown. But comparison playoff games reverses that, and even adding in home field advantage doesn't make up for it.
What a choice: Brees and Bush vs. Favre and Peterson. Both Minnesota's offense and defense played their season's best recently, so I'm taking experience and intangibles over home field advantage and picking the upset.
Prediction: Minnesota 27, New Orleans 24
Vegas line/spread: Colts by 7 1/2
Strength Power Rating Projection: Indianapolis 20, New York 19
Game-comparison win %: Indianapolis 51%
The Colts bounced back after two rest-game losses, while the Jets edged another playoff team to stay alive. Like Minnesota, the Jets have the "story" after coach Rex Ryan called him team the favorite to win the Super Bowl despite being a wildcard; Joe Namath predicted a win over the Colts, over four decades after his most famous pick; and rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez is getting more attention than any quarterback this side of Bret Favre. The Jets even beat the Colts, 29-15, last month.
Game Performance Charts
That win by the Jets was one of the Colts' rest games, though. Take those games out and no one has defeated the Colts when they played at full strength. Peyton Manning won't be on the sidelines for the second half of this game. Averaging those games out of the Strength power rating and the Colts gain nearly 3 points.
Even with that, though, they aren't huge favorites by the numbers. The Jets rank higher despite a stretch in which they lost six out of seven games. The Colts have been winning by a little, not a lot, and their defense as often as their offense has made the difference. The last game was a case in point as they held Baltimore to a field goal.
The Jets resurgence from 4-6 to playoff bound was defense-led, too. Despite the attention given to the talented but still green Sanchez, the Jet defense has been consistently strong the last eight games. The offense is erratic though, despite the emergence of the other great Jet rookie, Shonne Green, in the playoff season.
Comparing playoff performances the Colts have to be the favorite at home. Sanchez will be a great quarterback one day but Manning is among the best right now, and his team hasn't lost with him in the game.
Prediction: Indianapolis 20, New York Jets 10
This game is going to be very exciting and I think very high scoring. Both teams are prone to give up big plays and both teams are very capable of making big.For Saints vs vikings live stream visit http://tvnation.info/saints-vs-vikings-live-stream/
Posted by: Saints vs vikings | January 25, 2010 at 03:53 AM