SportsRatings: College Football: 2010 Preview

Complete Bowl Game Schedule

2010 Preview

September 01, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #1 TCU, #2 Boise State

The SportsRatings 2010 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams. These rankings predict how good the teams will be in 2009 before taking schedule into account, then the preview explores how well they should do given their schedule.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team. Two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win (straight up), and also an aggregate projection that allows for the uncertainty across a season (cumulative). The expectation for the team's season lies somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams #1 and #2. To see the full list, click here.

1. TCU Horned Frogs (Mountain West #1) Polls: AP #6 USA/Coaches #7

2009 Results: Record: 12-1 Bowl: Lost to Boise State 17-10 (Fiesta) Poll finish: AP #6; USA #6
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #4 Success: #7 Overall: #5
The TCU Horned Frogs take the #1 spot in our pre-season rankings, but it was touch and go all August as the numbers changed. In the end it was due to TCU's lack of surprises coming out of fall camp: no major injuries or player defections or ineligibilities or NCAA investigations that have other programs' players dropping like flies. Boise State had a few minor setbacks, and TCU had none.

Offense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #11 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #5
An upgraded passing game and still-powerful running game makes the TCU offense one of the nation's best.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #45    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #19
Andy Dalton was simply one of the best quarterbacks in Division I-A football last year, throwing for 2,756 yards and 23 touchdowns with just 8 interceptions while completing 62% of his attempts. Oh, and leading his team to a 12-0 finish in the regular season. Now a senior, Dalton wants to make it 13-0 this year. TCU's four top receivers—Jeremy Kerley, Jimmy Young, Antoine Hicks, and Bart Johnson—are back and combined for nearly 2,000 equitably-distributed yards. Two more had over 150 receiving yards and starting tight end Evan Frosch is back, too, for his senior year. The offensive line will be even better this year; if it's possible for them to reduce the 12 sacks they gave up last year (#19 in nation adjusted), they will. Dalton will have a great senior year and the Frogs hope he stays healthy again as he threw 99% of last year's attempts.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #7     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #7
Although Joseph Turner, the Frogs' leading rusher with 754 yards (11 TDs), is gone the running game won't miss a beat. Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley had over 600 yards each (12 TDs combined) and they averaged 6.4 yards per carry to Turner's 5.1. And QB Dalton netted 512 with 3 touchdowns. The TCU offense is a juggernaut on the ground, and the offensive line deserves a lot of credit. This year's model is an upgrade, too. Though Marshall Newhouse is gone, seniors Jake Kirkpatrick, Josh Vernon, Marcus Cannon, and junior Kyle Dooley are all back. Behind this powerful O-line the Horned Frogs' two star sophomores and their senior leader will continue to eat up yardage.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #5 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #5
Seven starters—six of them seniors—return to the TCU defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #8 Adj. Pass Def: #6 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #9 Sacks: #35
The defensive line loses Jerry Hughes who had 11.5 sacks, almost insuring that the pass rush will be weaker. But Wayne Daniels (5.5 sacks) is back with fellow seniors Cory Grant and Kelly Griffin so the line may be stronger overall and the Frogs will have another top-notch rushing defense. At linebacker one of the two in the TCU 4-2-5, #2 tackler Tank Carder (10 pass breakups), returns while #1 tackler Daryl Washington (109 tackles) is gone. The 5-man secondary boasts three returning starters—Tyler Luttrell, Alex Ibiloye, and Tejay Johnson, all seniors—but Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders depart. The overall effect on the defense is mixed. The Frogs lose their best player in each sector but 13 of the top 16 tacklers return. Improved or not, TCU will again have one of the best defenses in the nation.

Kicking Game: Punter Anton Kelton had just a 37.5 yard average but a decent 34.8 net; he's back, as is Ross Evans who hit 15 of 18 field goals.
Return Game: Jeremy Kerley returns both punts and kickoffs for the Frogs, and last year had 2 punt-return touchdowns to go with his 14.4 yard average (26.6 on kickoffs). Corner Greg McCoy was the other kick returner and he averaged a stellar 35.9 yards on 10 kickoff returns, one of which he took to the house. Both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #66
Gary Patterson has had four 11-win seasons in the last decade but last year's was the first 12-win season. TCU is no recruiting powerhouse, even for the Mountain West where they regularly finish behind at least BYU and Utah. This year's class has two solid offensive recruits, running back Ethan Grant from the Ft. Lauderdale area and running back/wide receiver/"athlete" Curtis Carter.

2009 Recap TCU kicked off the '09 campaign with an unimpressive 30-14 win at Virginia, followed by a 56-21 mauling of Texas State that didn't make the defense appear too threatening. Clemson was to be their big test and they passed—barely—on the road 14-10. After beating SMU and edging Air Force just 20-17 the Frogs were 5-0 and had beaten a few good teams but didn't look BCS-worthy. That happened two weeks later when they clubbed BYU 38-7 in Provo, and later blasted Utah 55-28. Over their final seven regular season games they averaged 47 points, but then scored just 10 in losing to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. For the 2nd year in a row they played poorly against the Broncos and fell by 7.

TCU 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Oregon State	74%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	99%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Baylor	83%	W
9/24	Fri	@	SMU	83%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Colorado State	86%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	91%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Brigham Young	79%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	83%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*UNLV	89%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Utah	71%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	94%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*New Mexico	99%	W
Projection Straight up: 12-0 Cumulative: 10-2

2010 Outlook TCU can and should go 12-0 again; the question is, where does that take them?

With a team that's better than last year's but a schedule that's probably easier, the Horned Frogs really don't have a path to a national championship that otherwise could be theirs. They open with Oregon State, one of their few chances to impress. Tennessee Tech won't do it, and if Baylor's going to be really good no one will know it by week three. SMU is gaining respect but is hardly an elite team.

Then the Mountain West schedule starts and the conference is generally weaker. While Air Force and Wyoming are on the rise the conference's marquee programs, BYU and Utah, will have weaker teams this year. If Boise State were already in the league as is planned for 2011, things might be different. But for now all TCU can do is try to win by a monstrous amount each week and hope every other contenter loses lots of games.

They are heavy favorites in every game, even Oregon State who is their toughest challenge. The cumulative projection adds up all the difficulty and rounds it into two losses, but I don't see a game where the Frogs should have trouble. If last year's team can go undefeated this year's should do so, too unless Andy Dalton is knocked out for the year.

So we are predicting another BCS bowl for the Horned Frogs, but again, no BCS title game unless 2010 resembles 2007 in terms of undefeated and 1-loss teams. It's still possible to win games so overwhelmingly that schedule doesn't factor in voters' minds as much, and TCU has established themselves as a great team in the last few years. But every team, even the best, have an off-game here and there, and just one of those against a cupcake team is all it will take to put doubt back in the voters minds. The computers won't care at all—TCU has no chance at all to win them over.

2. Boise State Broncos (WAC #1) Polls: AP #3 USA/Coaches #5

2009 Results: Record: 14-0 Bowl: Beat TCU 17-10 (Fiesta) Poll finish: AP #4; USA #4
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #8 Success: #2 Overall: #3
Boise State finished #8 last year in the Strength Power Rating and returns 20 starters on offense and defense. They beat TCU last year. So how did they—just barely—finish #2 behind the Horned Frogs, pre-season? Well, when everything is computed in our system concerning last year's returning players, a bonus is added for new faces. On that count, Boise has very little in new blood and TCU just inched past them.

Offense (10 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #8 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #1
Boise State could have the top offense in the nation in 2010.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #30    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #5
Kellen Moore had such an outstanding sophomore year it's hard to imagine what he could do for an encore. He could certainly raise his already-sound completion rate (64%), and he may very well throw for more than 3,536 yards. But how can he top his 39 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio? (That's 13:1 when expressed as a "true" ratio.) If it's possible at all, though, he has the supporting cast to do it as all of his receivers are back including seven who had over 100 receiving yards. Titus Young led the way with 1,041 yards and 10 TDs while Austin Pettis had 855 and 14 TDs. Tight end Kyle Efaw and Tyler Shoemaker combined for another 789. The offensive line is in a similar bind. Can they really give up fewer than last year's 5 sacks? (Though that was by far the lowest in the FBS, Boise faced poor pass rushes and ranked #5 when adjusted) Again, if it's possible they'll do it as four starters return to the line. Boise State and Moore will have one of the best passing attacks in the nation this year.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #49     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #28
The Broncos haven't been known as much for their running game since Ian Johnson proposed on national TV in 2007. But last year they had a 1,000 yard rusher in Jeremy Avery (6 TDs) and another who scored 15 touchdowns (Doug Martin, 765 yards). D.J. Harper added 284 in just a few games of action and three others had over 100 and literally everybody is back. Add in a top-caliber offensive line with four starters back and you have the recipe for massive yardage. Senior Will Lawrence and juniors Thomas Byrd, Nate Potter, and Garrett Pendergast—who shared right tackle with sophomore Michael Ames, who is also back—return to the line and more than make up for the loss of Kevin Sapien. Boise State's already-strong rushing game will be even more powerful, and any of Avery, Martin (the starter for the fall), or Harper might be the leader.

Defense (10 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #25 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #7
Boise's defense could make the transition from respected to feared.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #41 Adj. Pass Def: #13 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #23 Sacks: #107
The name Boise State hasn't been synonymous with tough defense. Moreso in the Dan Hawkins era but even recently the typical Bronco team has had outrageous offensive stats the kept them just ahead of their opponents' point tallies. Last year's defense was the real deal, though, ranking 25th in scoring defense with solid rushing and very good pass defense. Boise's rushing D ranking will undoubtedly climb as the entire front six in the 4-2-5 is back. On the D-line Ryan Winterswyk (9 sacks) and Billy Winn (6 sacks) will help bolster the Broncos' meager sack rating as they re-pair with Chase Baker and Shea McClellin. Aaron Tevis and Daron Murphy repeat at linebacker. Winston Venable returns at nickelback and Brandyn Thompson (6 interceptions), Jeron Johnson (#1 tackler), and George Iloka all return to the secondary. Only corner Kyle Wilson is gone from last year's starting D, and the 2nd string has 10 players back, too. This defense is experienced and deep and will be one of the best in the nation in 2010.

Kicking Game: Kyle Brotzman again did double duty for the Broncos, kicking 18 of 25 field goals successfully while averaging a very sound 43.9 yards per punt. He's back for this season.
Return Game: Corner Kyle Wilson, on of the few significant players gone from last year's squad, returned punts last year with a 10.4 average but teammate Chris Potter also returned punts last year (12.9 average) and star receiver Titus Young will return both punts and kickoffs this season. Last year Young returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and averaged 26.9 yards per return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #119
Here's why Boise State's stellar ranking last year and near-100% return of personnel doesn't quite give them the #1 ranking. Every team has a set of new players, either true freshman or redshirts (or JUCOs, whatever) that will see the field for the first time. Most of them have little effect in their first year, but many of them contribute, and some make major contributions. So the better a team's recruiting, the more chance of discovering a true talent that you didn't have last year. Boise State has far less chance of that than most teams as their recruiting class this year is tiny and mostly non-descript, and has been dwindling. From an original class of just 10, three players (Troy Ware, Tyler Horn, and Holden Huff) grayshirted meaning they are technically 2011 recruits. Daren Lee opted to go on a Mormon mission before joining the team. And Matt Miller is taking a medical redshirt, leaving five scholarship players that could add to the Broncos' bottom line (as long as they don't redshirt, too). There are new faces coming in from the much bigger 2009 class but for the most part what you saw last year with Boise is what you get. It's nearly enough to put the Broncos #1 by our system but not quite.

2009 Recap Boise State faced a "win or go home" opener as far as a BCS berth was concerned. Beat Oregon and the team had a clear path to an undefeated season. They stifled the Duck offense all game en route to a 19-8 win and didn't look back. Though they were less than dominant at times—Fresno State scored 34, Louisiana Tech 35, and Nevada 33, and they beat Tulsa just 28-21 and UC Davis 34-16—the Broncos beat everyone and ranked in the top ten in the Strength Power Rating (contrast with Hawaii at 12-0 in 2007, ranking #48). Other than Oregon, though, they beat just four teams with winning records before they topped TCU 17-10 in the Fiesta Bowl to finish a perfect 14-0—and set up this year's potential national championship run.

Boise State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/6	Mon	@	Virginia Tech	52%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Wyoming	83%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Oregon State	72%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*New Mexico State	99%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	Toledo	99%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*San Jose State	99%	W
10/26	Tue	vs.	*Louisiana Tech	83%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Hawaii	96%	W
11/12	Fri	@	*Idaho	77%	W
11/19	Fri	vs.	*Fresno State	82%	W
11/26	Fri	@	*Nevada	77%	W
12/4	Sat	vs.	*Utah State	88%	W
Projection Straight up: 12-0 Cumulative: 10-2

2010 Outlook This year's make or break opener has even higher stakes; the national title may be on the line. Again, if the Broncos pass this test the path in front of them is clear to be undefeated. That might not get them to the BCS title game, but if they lose to Virginia Tech they have no chance.

The rest of the schedule isn't worth much discussion. Wyoming and Oregon State are bowl winners from last year but will mainly serve as a comparison with TCU, which both of those teams play. New Mexico State, Toledo, and San Jose State are three gimmes in a row. Idaho, Fresno State, and Nevada may put up a bit of a fight but in general the road ahead is clear. I don't buy the 10-2 cumulative projection; the only game the Broncos might lose is the opener.

Much like Oregon last year Virginia Tech features a running quarterback who can throw well, and a great running back duo. This year the Broncos have to travel—over 2,000 miles and crossing two time zones—to meet the Hokies in Landover, Maryland. This is not a neutral field game, meaning #6 Virginia Tech could be favored to win. We see it as neck-and-neck. By our team ratings, Boise State should still be a 1-point favorite.

BUT the Broncos will have a few key players out. The offensive line is somewhat scrambled, with Garrett Pendergast not in playing shape yet after recovering from several surgeries. Backup safety Jason Robinson is suspended for the first three games. These aren't huge losses but it's enough to tilt a close game to Virginia Tech—if they didn't have personnel problems of their own. Most significantly their top returning tackler from last year, Barquell Rivers, will miss the game along with linebacker Alonzo Tweedy and receiver Xavier Boyce. This tilts the game—barely—back to Boise State.

Of course this numbers mean nothing as to what really happens on the field. The game is far too close to call. What makes me believe that Boise State will win it is that they HAVE to. This year might be their only shot at a national title and if they don't beat Virginia Tech it's gone after game one. And if they do win they have a good chance of being in the BCS title game; TCU doesn't have a prayer with their schedule, and every other candidate has a slew of pitfalls to cross. This could be Boise State's year, and we'll know a lot more after September 6th.

September 01, 2010 at 07:54 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #3 Arkansas, #4 Alabama

This installment covers teams #3 and #4. To see the full list, click here.

3. Arkansas Razorbacks (SEC #1; West #1) Polls: AP #17 USA/Coaches #19

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat E. Carolina 20-17ot (Liberty) Poll finish: AP #38; USA #36
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #12 Success: #34 Overall: #16
The Arkansas Razorbacks? In the SEC Championship game? It's more likely than you think...

Offense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #3 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #2
Arkansas had one of the top offenses last year and it will only get scarier this season.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #12    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #3
Ryan Mallett led one of the nation's top passing attacks in 2009 and he's getting a lot of hype for 2010. Mallet passed for 3,624 yards and 30 touchdowns last year—only 7 interceptions—and has his top five receivers back to boot. Mallet says he's changed his delivery while recovering from a broken foot last winter and as a result has improved his accuracy, which is good news for receivers Greg Childs (894 yards, 7 TDs), Jarius Wright (681, 5), Joe Adams (568), tight end D.J. Williams (411) and Cobi Hamilton (347). The offensive line should offer better protection with four starters back. All in all it looks like Mallett has a good chance to live up to the hype. He'll have to improve his completion rate (56%) if he wants to be a serious Heisman candidate, but if Arkansas turns out as good as we think then he'll be on everyone's list.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #55     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #45
No back rushed for even 500 yards last season, shocking for a school that had McFadden and Jones just a few years ago. In fact Michael Smith topped 1,000 yards in 2008 but was injured and only had 396, leaving the top spot to fullback-sized Broderick Green (442, 11 TDs). Smith is gone but his departure doesn't downgrade the team much when considering things relative to last year. And the Razorbacks have a number of other options, as Dennis Johnson, Ronnie Wingo, and Knile Davis had 824 yards combined. Johnson and Wingo both averaged over 6 yards per carry compared to Green's 4.2 and one of the two will probably get the starting job. The offensive line should help boost this year's numbers as only Mitch Petrus departs among the starters; seniors Wade Grayson, DeMarcus Love, and Ray Dominguez return with junior Seth Oxner. With the passing game getting the most focus and perhaps several backs sharing the spotlight, Arkansas might not have a 1,000 yard rusher this year, either, but overall production will increase and somebody will have at least 500 yards.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #42 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #26
Despite giving up scads of passing yards the Razorback D held scoring within reason and will make significant improvements this season.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #44 Adj. Pass Def: #110 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #96 Sacks: #38
Arkansas' big problem last year was pass defense, and if it doesn't get any better this year they can forget about competing for the SEC title. On an raw basis they were 99th in passing yards allowed per game, but they faced foes that were below average passing teams, so really they ranked 110th. On a per-play basis they were 96th, but since teams figured out to pass on them, that's what they did and it worked most of the time. One good sign comes on the defensive line where the team's co-leader with 5.5 sacks, Jake Bequette, returns with Zack Stadther. But among the two that depart is the other co-leader, Adrian Davis. The linebackers lose the team's #2 tackler Wendel Davis but #1 Jerry Franklin is back with co-starters Jerico Nelson and Freddy Burton so the three slots are covered well. The secondary loses just one starter while returning Rudell Crim, Elton Ford, and a number of part-time starters including Ramon Broadway, Tramain Thomas, and Andru Stewart. Can that group, with a year's experience, perform significantly better than last year? That is the question for the defense. Arkansas did rank #10 last year in red zone defense which explains why teams weren't able to convert voluminous passing yardages into points at a very high clip. Overall the team returns five of the top seven tacklers and in terms of scoring defense should approach top 25 quality.

Kicking Game: Dylan Breeding averaged just 38.7 yards per punt while Alex Tejada hit 16 of 22 field goals. Both are back but Breeding may lose his job to newcomer Zach Hocker while Tejada will be pushed by freshman Eduardo Camara.
Return Game: Running back Dennis Johnson averaged a swell 25.8 yards per kickoff return, with one touchdown. Last year's punt returner Jerell Norton had an 8.6 yard average and receiver Jarius Wright will inherit the job.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #35
Bobby Petrino has refashioned the Hoggs as a passing team after years of being associated with fantastic running backs. This reflects the type of teams he had at Louisville where he was a consistent winner. Arkansas recruits well in general but some years can't keep up with the rest of the SEC. This year's class is a bit of a dip from last season's great class, but almost every player is of high quality despite a general lack of potential superstars. The one consensus blue chip of the bunch, defensive lineman Calvin Barnett, failed to qualify.

2009 Recap Arkansas was terrible at the beginning of 2008 as the team tried to adjust to Bobby Petrino's system, but by the end of that 5-7 year they were starting to get it. Things clicked a lot more in 2009 with Ryan Mallett at quarterback. Though they lost to George and eventual national champ Alabama, they scored 47 and 44 in beating Texas A&M and Auburn. They challenged top-ranked Florida but fell 23-20, and lost to Ole Miss on the road to stand 3-4 but they'd had a tough schedule. When it got easier—Eastern Michigan, South Carolina, Troy, Mississippi State—they excelled and scored 63, 33, 56, and 42 in four straight wins. They too LSU into overtime but lost, 33-30, then took East Carolina into overtime in the Liberty Bowl and won, 20-17.

Arkansas 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	99%	W
9/11	Sat	N	Louisiana-Monroe	99%	W
9/18	Sat	@	*Georgia	65%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	54%	W
10/9	Sat	N	Texas A&M	64%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Auburn	56%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	74%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	90%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*South Carolina	60%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	UTEP	99%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	65%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*LSU	66%	W
Projection Straight up: 12-0 Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook This year looks very good for the Razorbacks—providing, of course, that they're as good as we're predicting. That's a big "if". But even if they aren't they should win the lion's share of games on their schedule, which is pretty easy in the non-conference side.

Tennessee Tech, Louisiana-Monroe, and later UTEP are all pretty much gimmes, and they play Vanderbilt at home which shouldn't be a challenge. Texas A&M is the only challenge outside the SEC.

The biggest challenge, of course, is Alabama but they face the Tide at home and I believe they will score what most will consider a huge upset. If they get past Auburn on the road two weeks later then they will be on their way to a potential undefeated season.

There are pitfalls at every turn in the SEC and any of Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi State, or LSU could derail their dream season, and the cumulative projection of 9-3 reflects this. It's also the record the team will probably have if they're only as good as everyone else says (barely top 20) than we are forecasting (top 5).

With so much required of them on offense and defense to be a top five team I can't place good odds on the team going undefeated. I think they will lose one game in the SEC. It won't be Alabama, though; it might be Georgia just before or Auburn after, or any of the tough teams that they must face later. At 11-1 they would be in the SEC title game, likely facing Florida. It might be too much to ask of Arkansas to beat Alabama and Florida in the same season, so the Gators may be the SEC champ. But every year there is a team that does surprisingly well and this year I think that team is Arkansas; if everything falls into place the Razorbacks could make a run at the national title.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC #2; West #2) Polls: AP #1 USA/Coaches #1

2009 Results: Record: 14-0 Bowl: Beat Texas 37-21 (BCS Title) Poll finish: AP #1; USA #1
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #1 Success: #1 Overall: #1
It's hard for a team to lose 9 starters on defense and remain number one, and Alabama is no exception.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #14 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #11
With undefeated field general McElroy and two great running backs, Bama's offense will roll.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #59    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #39
No one paid much attention to Greg McElroy as Mark Ingram was, oh, winning the Heisman Trophy last year. But McElroy ran the offense well, completed passes at a decent 61% clip for an adequate 2,500 yards and 17 touchdowns and best of all only threw the ball to the other team 4 times. A senior now, he's shown he can take on increased responsibility for offensive production, and with most of his targets back that is an achievable goal. Julio Jones and Marquis Maze combined for over 1,100 yards and 6 TDs. RB Ingram was 3rd with 334 and they lose #4, tight end Colin Peek (313) but Darius Hanks (272) returns. The offensive line helped a lot with McElroy's poise last year by protecting him well, allowing 20 sacks against some stiff pass rushes (sacks allowed ranked #20 adjusted). They'll do it again this year. McElroy's backup Star Jackson did well in limited action but transferred, leaving a lack of experience if McElroy is hurt, but they've been prepping freshman A.J. McCarron as a backup. Still, he hopefully won't be needed much as McElroy tries to continue his winning streak (hasn't lost yet as a starter, from high school on).
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #12     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #10
Mark Ingram won the Heisman by a hair, with a 1,658-yard, 17-touchdown performance in 2009. In breaking new, Ingram had knee surgery in late August and will miss at least one and possibly 2 or more games which will hurt his chances to repeat. It also gives opportunity to Trent Richardson, Alabama's other great back who rushed for 724 yards as a true freshman. He scored 8 touchdowns and already the pundits are saying Richardson is just as good and maybe better than Ingram! Two reasons this probably isn't true: 1) normally the best player starts, and 2) when the leading rusher has a better ypc average (6.1) than the #2 guy (5.2), it's further confirmation that he's starting for a reason. Not to say that Richardson won't eclipse Ingram at some point in the future (particularly if Ingram's knee has trouble) but it ain't the case right now. The offensive line loses two veterans in Mike Johnson and Drew Davis but three full-time starters are back: senior James Carpenter, junior William Vlachos, and soph Barrett Jones. They'll do a good job again but the real improvement will come from Ingram and Richardson, who will increase the team's rushing totals to make the top ten. Ingram's late summer injury, however, means that he's unlikely to surpass his 2009 numbers while Richardson's chances of a 1,000 yard season are way up.

Defense (2 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #1 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #3
Alabama will no longer have the best defense in the country, but how far will it fall?
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #1 Adj. Pass Def: #14 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #2 Sacks: #30
Where to start? Ok, the defensive line, which anchored the country's top rushing defense. All three starters are gone from the line: Terrence Cody, Brandon Deaderick, and Lorenzo Washington. Worse, new starter Marcell Dareus (6.5 sacks) is under NCAA investigation and may miss the season. At linebacker we'll graciously call Dont'a Hightower a returning starter, as he did start in 2008 and started four games in 2009 before injury. He's certainly good enough. But top tackler Ronaldo McClain (105 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss), Eryk Anders (6 sacks), and Cory Reamer depart. In the secondary Mark Barron—perhaps the one true returning starter—is back after leading the team with 7 interceptions and adding 11 pass breakups. But they lose Javier Arenas (5 sacks, 5 interceptions), Kareem Jackson (13 pass breakups), Justin Woodall, and nickel back Marquis Johnson (17 pass breakups). With those numbers you can see how 'Bama was #2 in per-attempt passing yards defense. Clearly the team loses a lot of talent, but the players from the 2nd string coming in are all great due to Alabama's superb recruiting, the coaching is terrific, and Barrow, Hightower, and Dareus (if he plays), among others form a solid core than most teams would kill for. Will they be number one again? No. They could fall from the top ten, but we have them still as the 3rd best defense in the country since they were quite dominant last year (note: and perhaps it should be considered #2 above North Carolina considering that their defense might be hobbled badly by NCAA suspensions..).

Kicking Game: Alabama loses kicker Leigh Tiffin who had a great 2009 hitting 30 of 35 field goals. They also lose punter P.J. Fitzgerald who averaged 41.5 yards per kick. Replacing them will be two true freshmen, Cade Foster and Jay Williams. I'm sure they're good but there will likely be a decline in the kicking game.
Return Game: Javier Arenas handled returns for the Tide and did a great job; he returned a punt for a touchdown (15.4 average) and had a 29 yard average on kickoffs. Receiver Julio Jones will take over as the primary for both jobs.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #8
Recruiting was a bit down this year; instead of finishing #1 in the country they didn't even get #1 in the SEC (they're in a roughly 3-way tie for 2nd). We're being sarcastic of course as the Tide continue to get some of the best recruits in the nation. This year's best? Most would say d-back DeMarcus Milliner of Millner, Alabama, one of the top-rated recruits in the country, period. He could help out in the secondary immediately.

2009 Recap Alabama patiently waited for their shot at Florida. Well, ok, they played football all season, too, beating Virginia Tech in the opener 34-24, and running through the SEC with few problems. One of those problems was Tennesse, who probably should have defeated them but didn't, falling 12-10 on a last-play blocked kick. LSU put up a good fight too losing 24-15. Auburn lost just 26-21. But Alabama saved their best effort for the SEC Championship game as the throttled Florida 32-13. The BCS title game was a huge disappointment as it was clearly Colt McCoy's injury and not Alabama's talent that beat Texas, 37-21. Still, only college football fans in 49 other states were disappointed that it wasn't a better game.

Alabama 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	99%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Penn State	65%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Duke	76%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Arkansas	46%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Florida	56%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*South Carolina	59%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	73%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Tennessee	75%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*LSU	59%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	70%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	Georgia State	100%	W
11/26	Fri	vs.	*Auburn	61%	W
Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook Alabama is most people's pre-season number one, and there are good reasons, one being if you haven't lost you don't abdicate the crown. They have the Heisman Trophy winner back and a better offense. But I would think the team should be downgraded a bit for losing so many starters on defense. Without a clear alternative (Ohio State chokes, Boise State can't really be #1, Texas lost McCoy, etc.) Alabama is almost #1 by default.

I don't think they'll remain there all year, not even through the month of September. It won't be San Jose State, obviously, nor Duke, nor even Penn State that trips them; regardless of whether Mark Ingram plays in those games, I think they will all be blowouts. But when they travel to Fayetteville in late September—perhaps looking ahead to hosting Florida the next weekend—they may get their first regular-season loss in more than two years.

I believe they'll beat Florida again and probably clear out the rest of the schedule, too. South Carolina and LSU might put up a fight, Auburn too, much like last year. But they're still the cream of the SEC—except for perhaps Arkansas, who in this scenario will win the SEC West and play in the SEC title game.

One interesting late game is on November 20th against Georgia State. Alabama is the defending I-A national champion. Georgia State is playing their very first year of football in I-AA (FCS). How this game got scheduled I don't know, but it's an absolute joke and the Tide should be ashamed of themselves. Curiously it will be a "homecoming" of sorts for last year's backup QB Star Jackson who is playing for Georgia State along with players from Auburn and Georgia Tech. But the general level of their personnel is going to be far, far below anything Alabama has been up against.

September 01, 2010 at 05:40 AM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 31, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #5 Oklahoma, #6 Virginia Tech

This installment covers teams #5 and #6. To see the full list, click here.

5. Oklahoma Sooners (Big Twelve #1; South #1) Polls: AP #7 USA/Coaches #8

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Stanford 31-27 (Sun) Poll finish: AP #26 USA #29
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #6 Success: #36 Overall: #11
Oklahoma went 8-5 last year and they lose four first-round draft picks (3 of the top 4 players selected). So how are they in the top five?

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #26 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #17
The offense should run smoother in Landry Jones' second year with a more settled O-line.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #10    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #4
Sam Bradford was hurt in the first game of the season, out for a while, then re-injured against Texas, ending his season with hardly 500 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, compared to 4,720 yards and 50 TDs from his Heisman Trophy winning 2008 season. Bradford was the #1 pick in the NFL draft and leaves the reigns to Landry Jones, who had a rough start against BYU but picked up speed as the season continued, finishing with 3,198 yards and 26 touchdowns. He did have 14 interceptions and completed just 58% but those numbers should improve in his sophomore year, particularly since his top four targets are back. Ryan Broyles is the key player, with 1,120 yards and 15 touchdowns last year, while running back DeMarco Murray and receivers Dejuan Miller and Brandon Caleb combined for another 1,364 and 7 TDs (the Sooners lose another first-round pick in tight end Jermaine Gresham, but he didn't play at all last season). Despite the troubles protecting Bradford against BYU and Texas the offensive line only gave up 15 sacks all year (#8 adjusted) and should be as good this year. Jones got valuable experience last season and should have a banner year for the Sooners.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #69     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #61
Chris Brown (749 yards) was the team's leading rusher again last year as DeMarco Murray (705 yds.) was slowed by injury. Murray is back and should be healthy now, and backing him up will two sophomores who combined for 350 yards last year. The offensive line is in good shape with three starters back. Despite losing Trent Williams, the #4 pick in the NFL draft, they have Cory Brandon, Stephen Good, and Ben Habern back along with several part-time starters such as Jarvis Jones and Tyler Evans. Murray has rushed for over 1,000 yards before and may do it again, and Mossis Madu moves back to running back so production shouldn't decline despite losing Brown.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #4 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #4
The defense will be weaker in places but talent runs deep in Norman.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #12 Adj. Pass Def: #5 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #4 Sacks: #7
The defense loses Oklahoma's other top pick, Gerald McCoy (6 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss) who was selected #3, as well as Auston English, making the defensive line considerably weaker this year. Seniors Jeremy Beal (11 sacks) and Adrian Taylor will try to preserve Oklahoma's near top 10 rushing defense, but it will be a challenge as linebackers Ryan Reynolds and Keenan Clayton depart, too. Travis Lewis, the team's #1 tackler with 109, does return however. Sam Proctor and Quinton Carter (4 interceptions) are back in the secondary. The Sooners lose a lot of key starters on defense but those returning are exceptional players and new starters such as Frank Alexander on the D-line and Jonathan Nelson at cornerback will be solid replacements.

Kicking Game: Tress Way averaged a strong 45.7 yards per punt (40.3 net) and Jimmy Stevens and Patrick O'Hara combined to make 17 out of 22 field goals. All three are back this year with O'Hara apparently keeping the starting job he won in the middle of last year.
Return Game: Ryan Broyles has one punt-return touchdown last year and averaged a whopping 15.9 yards per return. Mossis Madu was the primary kickoff returner and averaged 21.4 yards. Broyles may perform most of both chores as Madu moves back to running back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #2
Bob Stoops keeps on keepin' on, chasing another national championship which has eluded him since 2000. He's come close—very close—but lost in a lot of big games giving him an unfair reputation. Recruiting in the past few years has been particularly good and this year is one of their best, ranking #2 behind only Florida's class. Two wide receivers, Justin McCray and Kenny Stills, are among the Sooners' consensus blue-chips, which they have about 15 of in this class.

2009 Recap Last year could have been, and was supposed to be, another great year for Sooner football. But there was bad luck from the start. Superstar tight end Jermaine Gresham never played and Sam Bradford was knocked out of the BYU game which they lost by a point, 14-13. After two shutouts of hapless opponents with Jones at the helm they went to Miami and lost by a point again, 21-10. Bradford came back against Baylor and beat the Bears 33-7, but he was gone for good against Texas which they dropped 16-13. Jones did well against poor teams but against those like Nebraska he struggled as they lost 10-3. The defense was great all year except for the 41-13 loss to Texas Tech which put them at 6-5. Showing that they were actually one of the nation's best teams (finishing #6 in the Strength Power Rating) by blowing out Oklahoma State 27-0. They battled Stanford and were victorious in the Sun Bowl to end on a good note but the 8-5 record was a big disappointment. With all the close losses it's pretty clear that there was a narrow line between 8-5 and 12-1 if Bradford and Gresham had been available as expected. That's why this year's team ranks so high—they were very underrated and had terrible luck last season.

Oklahoma 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Utah State	84%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Florida State	64%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Air Force	80%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Cincinnati	65%	W
10/2	Sat	N	*Texas	60%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	86%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Missouri	62%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	80%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	60%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	59%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Baylor	74%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	76%	W
Projection Straight up: 12-0 Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook Oklahoma doesn't really have a very tough schedule. Yes, they have FSU and Cincinnati in the pre-conference schedule along with Air Force, which makes it one of the toughest in the Big Twelve for sure. But none of those teams should really challenge them, nor should any on their Big Twelve slate. Does that mean that Oklahoma is going to be undefeated?

It could happen; but of course last year shows that anything can happen. With the first three games at home and Cincinnati a weaker team this year the Sooners should be 4-0, but both the Seminoles and the Bearcats could surprise. Likewise, although I don't expect Texas, Texas A&M, or Texas Tech to give them problems, any of the three could. There's also Missouri on the road to contend with.

The game-by-game tally has the Sooners 12-0 pretty easily, but the cumulative projection is for about 8 1/2 wins and rounds up to 9-3. You can only have so many 62% chances of winning before one of them bites you. Just for that fact, I don't think the Sooners will emerge from this season 12-0. This year's team will be like the 2001 and 2002 models, that won the big games but were upset by Oklahoma State. Not that I think the Cowboys will beat the Sooners this year, but other unexpected teams might.

Missouri is one, and Texas A&M is the other. One of these two teams will upset Oklahoma, leaving them 11-1 for the year. Possibly both will or one of the other stronger teams on the schedule will and they'll be 10-2. But I'd guess the former: the Sooners go 11-1 and beat Nebraska in the Big 12 title game. After that it depends on what other teams around the nation have done as to whether Oklahoma can play for a national title or not, but there's a fair chance of Stoops getting yet another shot.

6. Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC #1; Coastal #1) Polls: AP #10 USA/Coaches #6

2009 Results: Record: 10-3 Bowl: Beat Tennessee 37-14 (Chik-Fil-A) Poll finish: AP #10 USA #10
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #5 Success: #13 Overall: #6
The Hokies field one of their best-ever teams and face three critical games.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #10 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #3
Now with a new and improved Tyrod Taylor, and double the star running back power!
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #82    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #43
Tyrod Taylor still had a mediocre completion rate (56%) in 2009 but his TD:INT ratio was a solid 13 to 5 as he threw for 2,311 yards. No one is going to mistake Virginia Tech for a passing team with Taylor at the helm but they have to respect the possibility of a deep throw at any time. The top Hokie receivers are all back, starting with Jarrett Boykin's 835 yards and Danny Coale's 614 (both 20+ yards per catch). Three other players had 100+ yards. The offensive line allowed quite a few sacks last year (31) particularly considering how often VT runs the ball (one sack for every 8 attempts!) and it's questionable how much they'll improve. But with a solid group of more experienced receivers and Taylor now a senior the passing game should be a lot better.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #9     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #4
Darren Evans had 1,265 yards as a freshman in 2008 but was lost before the season began last year. So the Hokies just found another super-frosh, Ryan Williams, to rush for even more yards. Williams had an amazing 1,655 yards and 21 touchdowns. Now the team has two incredible running backs to divide time between. What problems! QB Taylor netted 370 yards while Josh Oglesby and David Wilson topped the 300 mark as well. Needless to say this is going to be one powerful rushing team, moving from the top 10 into the top 5 in the nation. The offensive line loses Sergio Render and Ed Wang who started for seven years combined, but with Beau Warren, Jaymes Brooks, and Blake DeChristopher back they'll still more than adequately pave the way for the two star backs. The only question is who gets how many carries.

Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #8 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #14
The Hokies will still have a great defense but it won't quite be like last year's model.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #38 Adj. Pass Def: #10 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #15 Sacks: #12
The defensive line loses three starters including sack leader Nekos Brown (6.5); only John Graves (just 15 tackles last year) returns. They only return Barquell Rivers among the starters at linebacker as they lose #1 tackler Cody Grimm (106 tackles). The secondary is in a bit better shape with seniors Rashad Carmichael (6 interceptions) and Davon Morgan returning. Overall 9 of the top 13 tacklers are gone and the defensive line as a concert. Frank Beamer always has the defense ready to play but they won't dominate like they did at times last year.

Kicking Game: The Hokies must replace both punter Brent Bowden (43.8 yd. average) and placekicker Matt Waldron (20 of 23 field goals). Either senior Brian Saunders or Brent's freshman brother Grant Bowden will take over as punter while another senior, Chris Hazley, battles another freshman, Cody Journell, for the placekicking role. Either way there's likely to be some dropoff when replacing the quality pair.
Return Game: Both punt returner Jayron Hosley (11.2 average) and kickoff returnman Dyrell Roberts (31.9 average) scored a touchdown on a return, and both are back this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #37
Frank Beamer is near-legendary as a defensive and special teams guru as year after year Virginia Tech outperforms in these areas, often winning games due to special teams play. The Hokies rarely have outstanding recruiting classes, either, so Beamer's staff must be doing something right in the coaching and development areas. This year's class is typical; decent on a national level, average for the ACC.

2009 Recap Recap of 2009 season.

Virginia Tech 2010 schedule & forecast
9/6	Mon	vs.	Boise State	48%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	James Madison	90%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	91%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Boston College	64%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*North Carolina St.	76%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	81%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	78%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Duke	81%	W
11/4	Thu	vs.	*Georgia Tech	61%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*North Carolina	51%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	51%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	79%	W
Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook The Hokies open the season with one of the pivotal games of the year in terms of the national title race when Boise State comes to Landover, Maryland (which is not a neutral field given that the Broncos travel a few thousand miles to get there). While the game is much more important for Boise State's chances, it wouldn't help Virginia Tech's any to lose it. That is, while Virginia Tech could survive a loss, Boise State can't. But a win would boost the Hokies, especially if Boise wins out after.

And it might be the Hokies' only loss. It's really quite the tossup when home field advantage is added in, and Virginia Tech is better than every other team on the schedule. Both teams will have some key players out, the Hokies probably missing Barquell Rivers and Alonzo Tweedy on defense. The only challenge through October might be Boston College on the road. Then in November they host Georgia Tech, but have nearly two weeks to prepare a defense for them; giving the VT defense two weeks isn't a good idea.

The two pivotal games in terms of the ACC race come next; the Hokies go on the road to face North Carolina and Miami back-to-back. Favored slightly in both, the game-by-game projection gives them 2 wins. The cumulative projection would say they'll win one of the two, but which one we'll never know. In all the cume projection has Tech at 9-3, which doesn't mean they'll lose the three tough games, though it could. The game-by-game tally puts them at 11-1, which would mean a trip to the ACC championship game which the Coastal winner will be heavily favored in.

Three very tight games. I'll take Boise State in the opener because they will be even more motivated than the Hokies. As for the road games it's difficult to take Tech in both, but if they have only one conference loss that should get them to the ACC title game, which they will win. Therefore: a 10-2 record, and an ACC title makes Virginia Tech 11-2 prior the Orange Bowl. All in all a pretty good season.

August 31, 2010 at 01:48 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #7 Oregon, #8 Florida

This installment covers teams #7 and #8. To see the full list, click here.

7. Oregon Ducks (Pac-10 #1) Polls: AP #11 USA/Coaches #11

2009 Results: Record: 10-3 Bowl: Lost to Ohio State 26-17 (Rose) Poll finish: AP #11 USA #11
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #10 Success: #9 Overall: #9
With Jeremiah Masoli back the Ducks would have been our #1 team. How will they fare without him?

Offense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #4 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #8
The off-season loss of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli puts a major crimp in Oregon's offense, which we had projected as the #1 offense in the country before his departure.
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #96    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #88
Jeremiah Masoli didn't put up huge numbers (2,147 yards) but he was careful with the ball, throwing 15 touchdown passes with only 6 interceptions. First suspended for the year due to a laptop theft charge, he was kicked off the team for a marijuana arrest and ultimately ended up at Mississippi. Sophomore Darron Thomas, a backup in 2008, has been named starter over 2009 backup and fifth-year senior Nate Costa. He'll have a good situation at receiver, with three of the top four back: Jeff Maehl, D.J. Davis, and Lavasier Tuinei (combined 1,146 rec. yards) are back while tight end Ed Dickson (551 yards, 6 TDs) departs. Protection should be amazing; the O-line gave up just 13 sacks last year and all five starters return. So despite going from a 2-year starter to a very part-time backup, passing production will increase, but we'll never know what Masoli might have done.
• Ground Game:    '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #5     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #2
Last year LeGarrette Blount was suspended after the Boise State game, putting the focus of the running game on LaMichael James who finished with 1,546 yards and 14 TDs. Masoli was the #2 runner with 668, and Kenjon Barner added 366. With James and Barner as well as Remene Alston (133) in the lineup there's enough talent to have a great rushing team even without a running quarterback as good as Masoli. But what should really juice the rushing numbers is the offensive line. Five starters, four of them upperclassmen, are back for the Ducks this year: Seniors Jordan Holmes, C.E. Kaiser, and Bo Thran re-team with Mark Asper and Carson York. They led the offense to a top five finish in adjusted rushing yards (#6 raw) and this year the team could finish #2 behind Navy. Were Masoli back he would only add to the totals but even without him they will be a scary team to face. The one question is how much Masoli's dual-threat added to the mix, and whether defenses will be able to plan better against the Ducks if they have a more standard offense. Following in the footsteps of Blount and Masoli, James couldn't resist getting into the act himself as he was suspended for harassment, but for just one game. Amateur!

Defense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #31 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #18
The Duck D makes gains and becomes top 25 worthy.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #31 Adj. Pass Def: #41 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #17 Sacks: #10
Seniors Kenny Rowe (11.5 sacks) and Brandon Bair return to the defensive line. Rowe's presence helps insure that the Ducks will still have a strong pass rush, and it could remain in the top 10. At linebacker everyone returns but Eddie Pleasant moves to safety, leaving Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews behind. Both are seniors, giving the front seven four returning senior starters. The secondary consists of four returning starters: ex-LB Pleasant (4.5 sacks), Talmadge Jackson (4 interceptions), John Boyett (#1 tackler, 3 int.), and Javes Lewis. Already a strong group they should cut down on the per-game pass yardage they yielded last year. Overall 8 of the top 9 tacklers return and this should be a very strong defense.

Kicking Game: Jackson Rice averaged a fair 40.5 yards per punt and he's back, while Morgan Flint moves on after converting 16 of 19 field goals. Either freshman Alejandro Maldonado or sophomore Rob Beard will take over as kicker; look for Maldonado in game one as Beard bought a ticket on the (1-game) suspension train.
Return Game: Backup RB Kenjon Barner returned a kickoff for a touchdown and averaged 24.9 yards in that endeavor and also handled punts with a 10.5 average. He'll become primary punt fielder as Walter Thurmond departs; Thurmond had one punt return touchdown last season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #12
Chip Kelly has only been coach for one season and already he's been put through the ringer. First the LaGarrette Blount-Boise State punch incident, then Masoli's transgressions that required suspension and dismissal, and LaMichael James' issues. He coached his team, minus one of their star runners, to a Pac-10 title. Can he do the same to this year's team without their star quarterback? One thing he's done well for sure is recruit. In his first full year of recruiting he has a near-top 10 class, one of the best in the conference. Lache Seastrunk is one of the top running back prospects in the country, and the Ducks brought in a half-dozen more consensus blue-chip recruits.

2009 Recap A hopeful Duck season went downhill fast last September 3rd. First their proud offense was stifled by Boise State in a 19-8 loss; then LaGarrette Blount punched Byron Hout after the game. Chip Kelly "permanently" suspended Blount (he came back near the end of the year) and went on without him. It took a few games—they barely beat Purdue, and edged Utah by a touchdown—but every game they were getting better and by the time they blew out California 42-3 it was clear the offense was going to be a success without Blount. They kept winning, even demolishing USC 47-20 before losing a ground-war shootout with Stanford, 51-42. They won out, narrowly beating Arizona (2 OT) and Oregon State (37-33) to get to the Rose Bowl at 10-2. They lost to Ohio State 26-17 to finish 10-3 on the year.

Oregon 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	New Mexico	99%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Tennessee	72%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Portland State	100%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Arizona State	77%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	62%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Washington State	92%	W
10/21	Thu	vs.	*UCLA	73%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Southern Cal	64%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Washington	64%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*California	64%	W
11/26	Fri	vs.	*Arizona	70%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*Oregon State	62%	W
Projection Straight up: 12-0 Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook The off-season is when the troubles began and Oregon fell from their perch as the SportsRatings pre-season #1. But if you check the chart above, it's hardly made a difference: Oregon is so far ahead of every other Pac-10 team that it doesn't matter that they've lost their star player. They are still favored—usually heavily—in every game. And there are no tough non-conference games to test their mettle either. If they can beat Tennessee and run the Pac-10 table, they'll go undefeated.

Their toughest games are Stanford at home and Oregon State on the road, followed closely by a trio of games near the end of the year: at USC, vs. Washington, and @ Cal. All five of those together could produce 2 losses, if you listen to the cumulative projection which has the team 9-3. The third loss comes in fragments from all the other games (but not from New Mexico or Portland State, two gimmes on the schedule).

I don't think Oregon will lose three games. But I don't think they'll go undefeated, either. If they had Masoli back and were the #1 then I would believe it, and issue an official prediction that Oregon was going 12-0 and would be playing for the national title. As it is there are too many questions about how the offense will function and how effective it will be. Though the numbers still say they are very tough—and they should be—I don't think they're good enough to dismiss the probability of an upset or even two, making an 11-1 or 10-2 year likely.

So if I have to be official about it, I'll predict and 11-1 season, with a loss to Oregon State at the end. The Beavers will spoil the Ducks' perfect season in Corvallis.

8. Florida Gators (SEC #3; East #1) Polls: AP #4 USA/Coaches #3

2009 Results: Record: 13-1 Bowl: Beat Cincinnati 51-24 (Sugar) Poll finish: AP #3 USA #3
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #2 Success: #3 Overall: #2
Tim Tebow is gone, and he will not rise back up to guide Florida to the promised land.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #12 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #23
After one of the greatest college football careers ever Tim Tebow moves on, and Florida must, too.
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #43    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #91
Tim Tebow was criticized as "not a great passer" but you can't argue with results. In his senior year he threw for 2,895 yards (68% completions) and 21 TDs against just 5 interceptions, the kind of numbers he had his whole career. His running threat made him tough to defend when back to pass. He offered a lot of things that you won't find in a more "pure" drop-back passer like John Brantley, his replacement. On talent alone Brantley should have a great year; as a backup he completed 75% for 410 yards and 7 TDs with no interceptions. If he can spread that across an entire season he'll be a Heisman candidate, but I think that might have to wait until next year. The Gators lose four of their top five receivers including the top two, Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez, who combined for 1,811 yards and 14 TDs. Deonte Thomas is the leading returner with 343 yards (4 TDs). The offensive line will be very good as four starters return but they gave up 30 sacks last year (75th in nation adjusted) which isn't good for breaking in a new QB. Brantley will do well, passing for over 2,500 yards but I think Florida will remain a power running team behind the strong O-line.
• Ground Game:    '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #11     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #8
Tebow led the team in rushing again, missing 1,000 yards only due to sack losses. But the Gators are positively loaded with talent at running back and with Tebow "out of the way" they are going to shine. Lightning-fast Jeff Demps, I believe, will be one of the nation's leading rushers; he had 745 (7.5 average) last year. Chris Rainey (575) and Emmanuel Moody (378) will also contribute heavily, and Mike Gillislee (267) is back, too. QB Brantley showed some running ability last year (as is required of quarterbacks under Urban Meyer) and there are wildcat packages being set up for some freshman receivers. In short, Florida is going to run through and around everybody this year. The offensive line proved itself last year as a great run-blocking line and only one starter is gone. Maurkice Pouncey departs but brother Mike returns along with Carl Johnson and Marcus Gilbert, while part-time starters Xavier Nixon and James Wilson fill the other slots. Even without Tebow's yardage production should increase and make Florida a top ten rushing team.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #3 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #6
Last year every starter was back, and the entire second string. Not this year, but the Florida D will still be one of the nation's best.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #6 Adj. Pass Def: #2 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #7 Sacks: #4
Florida was in the top ten in rushing defense, passing defense (however measured), and quarterback pressure. They might fall out of the top ten in any or all of those categories but the defense will remain in the top ten overall. The defensive line has two starters back, Omar Hunter and Terron Sanders, but they lose Carlos Dunlap and Jermain Cunningham who combined for 16 sacks (there goes the top five sacks rating). Only A.J. Jones returns at linebacker as Ryan Stamper (#1 tackler) and Brandon Spikes (1st team All-American) move on. The secondary loses Major Wright and Joe Haden (10 pass breakups) but Janoris Jenkins is back with Ahmad Black and should still be very good, maybe not #2 in per-game adjusted yards yielded, however. The defense loses four of the top five tacklers but the returning talent is excellent.

Kicking Game: Chas Henry averaged 43.4 yards per punt with a stellar 41.0 net, and while kicker Caleb Sturgis has some issues, missing 3 extra points and 2 inside the 30 yard line (22 of 30 overall), though he did kick a 56 yarder. Both are back.
Return Game: Brandon James was the team's designated return man on punts and kickoffs last year, averaging 7.4 per punt and 26.1 per kickoff, with one touchdown. Chris Rainey will take over both chores this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #1
Urban Meyer kept us wondering last year, but not for long, what his future plans would be. After announcing his retirement due to a "health condition" Meyer quickly made it a "leave of absence" and before you knew it he was saying he would coach the team in 2010 after all. Between then and now he berated a reporter for reporting exactly what a player said, fully in context, and figured out that the stress-related heart condition he feared he had was really just some kind of fancy acid reflux that they have pills for at the dollar store. Oh, and he recruited the #1 recruiting class in the country, too, with no less than four uber-blue-chips, all on defense: tackles Dominique Easley from New York and Sharrif Floyd of Pennsylvania; safety Matt Elam from Florida; and end Ronald Powell from California. And then yet another uber-blue-chip, linebacker Chris Martin from Colorado, decided he'd rather go to Florida than California where he originally committed. Meyer did lose blue chips Jordan Haden (safety) and Adrian Coxson (receiver), but they were just consensus blue-chips, not uber-blue 5 star types. Those regular old blue chips are a dime a dozen in Florida's recruiting classes as of late.

2009 Recap In many ways 2009 was a disappointment, even before they lost to Alabama and with it lost any hope of repeating as national champs. Dominating Charleston Southern 62-3 and Troy 56-6 was expected, but Tennessee put up way too much of a fight, losing just 23-13. That was the first sign that the team wouldn't be one for the ages. Then there was Tebow's concussion injury against Kentucky, which slowed him for weeks as they barely got past LSU (13-3), Arkansas (23-20), and even Mississippi State (29-19). This was not looking like one of the best teams of all time. But they were still undefeated, and rolled through Georgia, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Florida International (another 62-3 beatdown) and FSU (37-10 this year). They faced undefeated Alabama in the SEC title game and played flat, missed several scoring opportunities, and couldn't mount a comeback, losing 32-13. The Meyer situation pumped the players up and made sure they came out like gangbusters against Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl, taking a huge lead and winning 51-24.

Florida 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	88%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	South Florida	76%	W
9/18	Sat	@	*Tennessee	72%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	73%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Alabama	44%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*LSU	62%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	67%	W
10/30	Sat	N	*Georgia	64%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	80%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	62%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	Appalachian State	85%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Florida State	55%	W
Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook Florida is hot to avenge its loss to Alabama and they should be 4-0 at the time, but they'll be playing in Tuscaloosa and the Tide will probably win again. Before and after that are a sea of very probable wins. If Florida does lose to Alabama as we expect, what will that do to their mental state? Will they be able to play the rest of the season with the same focus?

Win or lose, they can look forward to a possible rematch in the SEC title game if they win out, so odds are they will keep that focus against their hardest SEC foes—LSU, Georgia, South Carolina—and win their conference games. But I think that when they travel to Florida State, the SEC title game berth in hand, they could get caught napping by FSU, a team they've slaughtered for years now, and lose a second game.

So between the cumulative projection of 8-4 (that's a lot of upsets) and the 11-1 game-by-game tally, lies the truth, which I believe will be a 10-2 season for Florida in Year One, A.T.

P.S. Florida may or may not win the SEC title game, but I don't think they'll face Alabama. Tune in when the rest of the top ten is posted to find out who might be there instead.

August 31, 2010 at 01:05 AM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 30, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #9 Ohio State, #10 Nebraska

This installment covers teams #9 and #10. To see the full list, click here.

9. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten #1) Polls: AP #2 USA/Coaches #2

2009 Results: Record: 11-2 Bowl: Beat Oregon 26-17 (Rose) Poll finish: AP #5 USA #5
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #11 Success: #5 Overall: #7
Yet another nearly-undefeated season is in store for the Buckeyes.

Offense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #37 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #15
Terrelle Pryor tries again to live up to the hype of being the nation's top prospect in '08.
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #95    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #48
This is the year that Terrelle Pryor is supposed to live up to his promise. Two years ago he took over as starter but he was just a freshman so his shortcomings were glossed over as his raw ability awed onlookers. Last year he was declared "overrated" by short-sighted pundits after a mid-season loss, but he finished the year strong and now has everyone expecting Vince Young-type greatness once again. As a passer he's been decidedly unspectacular, throwing last year for 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns with 11 interceptions and completing 56%. Now a junior, he has his top three targets back in DeVier Posey (828 yards, 8 TDs), Dane Sanzenbacher (570 yards) and tailback Brandon Saine (224). The Buckeyes lose Duron Carter (who transferred to a junior college), Ray Small, and starting tight end Jake Ballard (501 yards total) but the combination of returning talent and a stronger offensive line will allow Pryor to pick up the pace of the passing game to more than respectable levels.
• Ground Game:    '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #20     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #9
Pryor was a better runner than passer in 2009, leading the team with 779 net yards; subtract sack yardage and he would have had around 1,000 yards. Brandon Saine was the top running back with 739 and Dan "Boom" Herron was a close third with 600. That's over 2,000 yards for the top three Buckeyes, and Jordan Hall added another 248. All of the above return, and factoring in the offensive line it should be a banner year on the ground for the Bucks. They lose only Jim Cordle, with senior Bryant Browing, ex-Michigan lineman Justin Boren (also a senior), Mike Brewster, and J.B. Shugarts all back. They should open holes for the running backs and though Pryor may or may not run as much they should cut down on the team's 24 sacks. Ohio State should be a top ten rushing team in 2010.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #6 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #8
Ohio State's tough defense remains almost as tough as it was last year.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #2 Adj. Pass Def: #21 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #6 Sacks: #22
Ohio State had one of the top rushing defenses in the country last year but they might slide out of the top ten this season. Only one starter, Cameron Hayward (6.5 sacks) returns to the front four as two linemen leave for the NFL includin Thaddeus Gibson (4 sacks + 9 tackles for loss). The two returning linebackers may be able to pick up the slack though: Ross Homan (108 tackles, 5 interceptions) and Brian Rolle (7 tackles for loss) were the teams #1 and #2 tacklers. The OSU pass defense was fantastic, too, ranking #6 in per-attempt figures; they ranked #21 in per-game yardage because no one could run on them so opponents passed more often than normal. They lose Kurt Coleman (5 interceptions) from the secondary but Jermale Hines, Chimdi Chekwa, and Devon Torrance, all seniors, are back. Teams might do a little less passing and a little more running this year but the end result will be the same: not a lot of success.

Kicking Game: Ohio State has to replace both their primary punter and placekicker from last year but both the replacements have experience. Jon Thoma averaged just 37.9 yards per punt; Ben Buchanan (42.8 on 4 punts) will take over. Aaron Petty was 14 of 20 on field goals but was injured and Devin Barclay took over, hitting 7 of 10. Barclay is back this year but didn't attempt anything over 40 yards.
Return Game: The Buckeyes lose punt returner Ray Small (8.3 on punts, also 27.0 on kickoffs with one touchdown) and primary kickoff returner Lamaar Thomas (20.9 average). Running backs Jordan Hall and Brandon Saine are listed as replacements.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #27
Jim Tressel had a "comeback year" of sorts last season. Though it was OSU's 5th straight season of double-digit wins, the key was winning the Rose Bowl, the Buckeyes first bowl win since 2005. Recruiting has been so great in the last several years that this year—a borderline top ten class, only 3rd or 4th in the Big Ten—is considered a disappointment. Part of the reason for the lower ranking is that the Buckeyes recruited a small class this year since they've loaded up with talent in the last few years. They still have at least a half dozen consensus blue chip players though one, Jamel Turner, was shot and nearly killed this summer. He recovered but it's unknown when or whether he'll join the team.

2009 Recap Clearly looking ahead to a rematch with USC, Ohio State almost got bit by Navy before winning 31-27. They controlled most of the game against the Trojans but went flat at the end and lost 18-15, putting a damper on the season already. Four expected wins including a 31-13 thrashing of then-undefeated Wisconsin pulled them out of their funk a bit but an upset loss to Purdue put them right back in. Around this time was when people began writing off Pryor as a failure. Pryor and the Buckeyes responded by winning their next two by a combined 83-7, then thrashing Penn State 24-7. They needed overtime to beat a Rick Stanzi-less Iowa 27-24 but beat Michigan 21-10. Going to the Rose Bowl as underdogs they handled Oregon the way they did USC but didn't falter down the stretch, winning 26-17 and getting a big monkey off Jim Tressel's back.

Ohio State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Marshall	83%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Miami (Florida)	55%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Ohio	85%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	99%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Illinois	74%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	87%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	50%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	82%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Minnesota	71%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	65%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Iowa	58%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	75%	W
Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook Another season, another set of high expectations for the Buckeyes. Even though our ranking isn't nearly as high as most publications (almost everyone seems to have Ohio State at #2), after looking at their schedule they might as well be higher since they've got a great chance of going undefeated.

Watch for the Marshall game to perhaps be Navy part II. The Miami game is already on the minds of Ohio State players, and they'll be looking right past Marshall. This isn't as big of a sin as looking past Navy, who finished with 10 wins last year, but don't be shocked if the Buckeyes don't impress in week one.

That brings us to the Miami game, a rematch of the 2002 national championship game which Ohio State won controversially in double overtime. For many people that game was certainly thrilling though not enough time has passed to mark it as an all-time classic. But for an 18-year-old player, that game happened when he was 10, long enough ago to give it legendary status. With 100,000+ fans packed into the Horseshoe OSU should defeat the 'Canes again, this time in more legitimate fashion.

Then the Bucks have four very easy games before traveling to Wisconsin, the one game I think they might lose. It's a tossup, really, since how often has Wisconsin "won the big one"? As bad as Ohio State has done as a representative of the Big Ten lately, they've always won the big in-conference games. This is easily their biggest stumbling block on the way to either the Rose Bowl and a national title.

The only other expecting stumbling block is a trip to Iowa and OSU might be overconfident at that point if they're undefeated, but they can probably handle the Hawks. The cumulative projection accounts for possible upsets and forecasts a 9-3 year. It's possible that they could lose all three (Miami, Wisconsin, Iowa) or lose two of them and fall victim to another Purdue-like upset, but I don't see it. I think 11-1 is what the Buckeyes will be. Whether it's Wisconsin, Miami, Iowa, or some other team, the Buckeyes will lose one game and that means another BCS bowl in 2010.

10. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Twelve #2; North #1) Polls: AP #8 USA/Coaches #9

2009 Results: Record: 10-4 Bowl: Beat Arizona 33-0 (Holiday) Poll finish: AP #14 USA #14
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #7 Success: #26 Overall: #11
Nebraska should rule the Big Twelve North but probably can't beat the champ from the South.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #56 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #33
Nebraska's tepid offense won't blow teams away this year but it won't stall as often as it did in 2009.
• Passing Game:    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #56    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #33
Zac Lee was perhaps less-than-adequate at the helm for the 'Huskers, but when you compare his passing numbers to say, Terrelle Pryor's, there's not a lot of difference. Both had just over 2,000 yards; Lee had four fewer TDs at 14 but one fewer interception at 10, and had a higher completion percentage at 59. Of course, Lee had far fewer rushing yards but still had 171 net. Backup Cody Green wasn't any better, hitting 53% for 2 TDs and 2 interceptions, but he's up for the starting job along with lee and redshirt freshman Taylor Martinez. If Lee is healthy he should regain his job eventually and have a much better year as Nebraska'a top three receivers return. Niles Paul led easily with 796, while Curenski Gilleylen and Mike McNeil had 561 combined. They did lose two of the other four who had over 100 yards and starting tight end Dreu Young who needed back surgery. The offensive line should protect the quarterback as well as last year when they allowed 19 sacks (18th best in the nation adjusted for opponents). Nebraska's passing game which could be quarterback-by-committee should still be much better this year.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #53     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #44
Roy Helu led the 'Husker rushing attack with 1,147 yards and 10 touchdowns, but like the passing game it wasn't all that fierce. Rex Burkhead was 2nd with 346 yards and QB Lee 3rd with 171 net, while freshman Dontrayveous Robinson had 165 and backup QB Green 158. Both main backs were hurt much of the time and many runners were used, particularly against Iowa State where Bo Pelini struggled to find someone who wouldn't fumble the football. The offensive line was looking good in the spring after they had adjusted to life without 3-year starting center Jacob Hickman, but then returning starter Mike Smith broke his leg this summer. That still leaves Ricky Henry, Keith Williams, and Marcel Jones, and Smith was projected to be a backup this year to Mike Caputo. The running back corps has everyone back, presumably healthier, and should have a better year in 2010.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #2 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #1
The defense is weaker without Ndamukong Suh but will paradoxically be the best in the nation.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #16 Adj. Pass Def: #3 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #3 Sacks: #3
Any comparison between this year's and last year's Nebraska defense starts with a discussion of last year's near-Heisman winner, nose tackle Ndamukong Suh, who racked up 12 sacks, 12 more tackles for loss, and broke up 10 passes last year while ranking at the Cornhuskers' #1 tackler for the 2nd straight year. Suh departed for the NFL after winning every defensive trophy possible and was the #2 choice in the NFL draft. Clearly the defensive line will be weaker without Suh and Barry Turner, who had 5.5 sacks plus 10.5 tackles for loss. Pierre Allen (5 sacks) and Jared Crick (9.5) will form the basis of another great D-line but the pass rush can't possibly be the same without Suh, whose presence allowed others to get past opponents' O-lines as the team racked up 44 sacks. At linebacker Phil Dillard is gone along with part-time starter Sean Fisher who broke his leg in the summer, but Will Compton, who started most games, is back. Nebraska usually runs a 4-2-5 with one hybrid linebacker slot and Eric Hagg is back at that position. The rest of the secondary loses two starters including Matt O'Hanlon who had 6 interceptions, but Prince Amukamara (11 pass breakups, 5 int) is back with Alfonzo Dennard, and part-time starter DeJon Gomez (4 int) moves into the lineup. It will be interesting to see the effect that the loss of Suh has on the passing defense, as the pressure (and quite frankly, terror) he put on quarterbacks made the job of the secondary easier. Overall even though five of the top seven tacklers are gone, the vast majority of the 2nd and 3rd string return and the downgrade will be limited. And because Alabama loses 9 starters on defense this year, Nebraska's should be the #1 unit by default.

Kicking Game: Alex Henery returns after handling both punting and kicking chores for the Cornhuskers. He averaged 41.8 per punts and made 24 of 28 field goals, three of those misses coming beyond 50 yards.
Return Game: Receiver Niles Paul is also the 'Huskers' return specialist; he had one touchdown on a punt return (10.7 average) and averaged 27.9 yards per kickoff return last year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #29
Bo Pelini took over a losing Nebraska team and has had two winners in a row, though it hasn't always been smooth running. Recruiting isn't much better in his 2nd class, again ranking in the middle of the Big Twelve pack. It may be that Nebraska has seen the last of its glory days when everyone fought to come here; or maybe a national championship run will rekindle the flame. The Huskers culled about a half dozen blue chip recruits from various places this year, but mostly from the midwest states.

2009 Recap Nebraska blew out Sun Belt teams Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State but the offense sputtered when confronted with Virginia Tech. The Hokie offense sputtered, too when faced with Nebraska's D, and they narrowly beat the Huskers 16-15. UL-Lafayette fell 55-0, making the combined score Nebraska 142, Sun Belt 28. Against Missouri the offense stalled again for three quarters before coming alive with the help of the defense to win 27-12. But the low point for the O was yet to come. Even the defense looked bad as Texas Tech beat Nebraska 31-10, and against Iowa State the defense was fine but the offense literally fumbled the game away inside the 10 yard line, losing 9-7 in what should have been a 42-9 blowout win. At 4-3 it looked like another disappointing year was in store but with Suh getting better every game Nebraska went on a tear, winning their last five games (almost all due to defense) and meeting Texas in the Big 12 title game. Here Suh's legend grew by leaps and bounds as he relentlessly hounded Colt McCoy and held Texas to 10 points before a final field goal gave the Longhorns the win, 13-12. The D dominated Arizona and the O did its job, too, winning 33-0 in the Holiday Bowl.

Nebraska 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	94%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Idaho	75%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Washington	55%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	South Dakota State	82%	W
10/7	Thu	@	*Kansas State	72%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Texas	57%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	71%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	63%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Iowa State	74%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	81%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	55%	W
11/26	Fri	vs.	*Colorado	75%	W
Projection Straight up: 12-0 Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook Nebraska has three games it has to worry about; if they lose them all they'll match the cumulative projection. If they win them all they'll match the "straight up" projection of 12-0.

The first game is Washington. The Huskies will be a good team this year, and the Cornhuskers will be on the road. If they don't realize how good Washington is they could be walking into a trap early in the season. But I doubt they'll be looking ahead to South Dakota State.

Texas is the second game, and I'm not concerned at all that they'll have trouble getting ready to exact revenge, at home, on a Texas team that will certainly be weaker than last year. I'd say it's almost as likely that they lose the prior game at Kansas State, when they *will* be looking ahead.

The third is Texas A&M on the road, a game as tough as the Washington game. If they're 10-0 at this point they'll know what is at stake. It's less likely that they lose here than to Washington.

So can the Cornhuskers go 12-0? I think there are enough challenges that the answer is no. Nebraska is going to be a good team, but they're only (according to us) the 10th best so going undefeated is still against the odds given a BCS conference schedule. Their offense, while better, still isn't really all that good and they recently lost key players Smith (OL), Young (TE), and Fisher (LB). I think they might lose to Washington early on, or escape from Washington with a narrow win but lose to Kansas State before beating Texas. Nebraska will be 11-1, or maybe 10-2, this year.

Either way they'll be in the Big Twelve championship game again, and this time they'll probably lose to Oklahoma. So even if they manage to go 12-0, they won't go 13-0. Nebraska will have to wait till another year to recapture the national title.

August 30, 2010 at 09:50 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #11 to #13: Texas Tech, Miami, North Carolina

This installment covers teams from #11 to #13. To see the full list, click here.

11. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big Twelve #3; South #2) Polls: AP #37 USA/Coaches #44

2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Beat Michigan St. 41-31 (Alamo) Poll finish: AP #21 USA #23
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #13 Success: #38 Overall: #17
Even though they finished in the Top 25 last year, Texas Tech isn't getting any respect in the pre-season polls. Do people think Tommy Tuberville is going to throw a wrench in the offense?

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #9 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #7
There should be more of the same: passing, and a lot of it, from Tech's two talented quarterbacks.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #2    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #2
There's no reason to doubt the Raiders passing attack. Taylor Potts threw for 3,440 yards and 22 touchdowns, and Steven Sheffield added 1,219 and 14 TDs. Sheffield had a better completion percentage (74% to 66%) and had a better TD:int ratio (just 4 interceptions to Potts' 13), but Potts is a tough customer with a strong arm and has the job once again going into the fall. Even 3rd stringer Seth Doege threw two TD passes. The receiver corps is fully loaded, with Detron Lewis (844 yards), Alexander Torres (806), Tramain Swindall (694), Lyle Leong (571, 9 TDs), and five others who had between 150 and 500 receiving yards including RB Adam James (yes, he's still on the team). Only starting WR Edward Britton is gone from the group. The offensive line might be the sole concern as they allowed 31 sacks and only two starters are back. But unless head coach Tommy Tuberville messes too much with a good thing the Red Raider air attack will again finish second only to Houston in terms of production.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #110     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #102
While Texas Tech rarely fields a strong rushing attack, Auburn under Tuberville often did. The hope is that he can continue their passing success while bolstering the running game. To an extent, it should work this year but of course that depends on emphasis. The entire running back corps returns this year: Baron Batch (884 yards, 14 TDs), Eric Stephens (254), and Harrison Jeffers (217, 6.2 average) are back. None of the three quarterbacks netted positive yardage, a rarity these days, and only Sheffield has any running capability. The offensive line's issues may prevent much progress in the running game however. They lose Marlon Winn, Brandon Carter, and Shawn Byrnes, a total of eight years of starting experience. Lonnie Edwards and Chris Olson are back but have started just one year each. The numbers will improve with the running backs' experience and perhaps more utilization, but don't expect a great running game to emerge this year.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #29 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #35
The Tech defense loses most of its feared pass rush.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #62 Adj. Pass Def: #26 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #36 Sacks: #1
The Tech defensive line loses three starters, returning only Colby Whitlock. A switch to a 3-4 minimizes the impact of the losses but the Raiders' pass rush will undoubtedly suffer as they lose Brandon Sharpe (15 sacks), Daniel Howard (8 sacks), and Richard Jones (2.5) as well as backup Rajon Henley (5 sacks). Last year Texas Tech had the strongest pass rush in the country (when corrected for their opponents), totalling 41 sacks, but those four alone account for 3/4 of it. At linebacker they lose only Marlon Williams while Bront Bird and #1 tackler Brian Duncan return, though they have another slot to fill. Overall the front seven returns just three starters but all are seniors. The pass defense was strong last year and the secondary returns three starters, LaRon Moore, Franklin Mitchem, and Cody Davis. They do lose Jamar Walls who broke up 15 passes last year and with a much weaker pass rush up front they will be tested more. Six of the top eight tacklers return but the defense will have different strengths and weaknesses.

Kicking Game: Ryan Erxleben (without even researching I'm going to assume he's got to be Russell's son) averaged 40.8 yards per punt, while Matt Williams made 11 of 14 field goals. Both return this year.
Return Game: Receiver Austin Zouzalik averaged 9.6 yards per punt return and Eric Stephens a strong 25.7 per kickoff return, and both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #40
Mike Leach lost his job last December due to Adam James, hubris, and a number of other factors including perhaps a bonus he was due if he remained on board. In an interesting move Tech hired Tommy Tuberville who was great at Auburn in just the areas Tech has lacked: running game and defense. However his teams rarely had strong passing and Tuberville's attempt to implement a spread failed miserably leading ultimately to his resignation. Strangely, after failing with Tony Franklin he's hired a Franklin disciple at Tech, Neal Brown. With a pass-happy system already in place with talent to burn, the job should be easier but fans and pundits are wary of Tuberville disturbing things. It doesn't help that Gene Chizik had Auburn's offense firing on all cylinders in his first year. Tuberville has already made one questionable call: making Taylor Potts the starting QB over the more dynamic Steven Sheffield. Of course, Leach made the same decision a year ago. You can't argue, either, with Tuberville's success at Auburn, particularly the 13-0 year in 2004. This year should be interesting.

As for recruiting, this year is down a bit, probably due to players that Leach was courting moving on, and also due to quite a bit of attrition as at least half a dozen players didn't qualify. This is something that happened at Auburn quite a bit under Tuberville. But they still got several blue or near-blue chips; two Texas recruits top their list, QB Scotty Young of Denton and defensive end Jackson Richards of Southlake.

2009 Recap After the almost-BCS-worthy year in 2008 there was bound to be a letdown, especially after losing Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree. But I felt that Tech would still have a strong 8-4 season, losing to Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State plus an unknown upset. They did lose to Texas and Houston (29-28) could count as the upset, but the real upset came later when Texas A&M beat them 52-30, one week after the Raiders had destroyed Nebraska 31-10. They did lose to Oklahoma State, too, putting them a game down from the forecast but the next week they demolished Oklahoma (who had given up more than three touchdowns just once) 41-13. They beat Baylor to stay on track at 8-4. They went into the Alamo Bowl heavy favorites due to Michigan State's player suspensions and though it took both quarterbacks to do it they won, 41-31.

Texas Tech 2010 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sun	vs.	SMU	78%	W
9/11	Sat	@	New Mexico	97%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Texas	56%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Iowa State	74%	W
10/9	Sat	N	*Baylor	71%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	77%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Colorado	69%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	54%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	62%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	41%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	Weber State	87%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	Houston	66%	W
Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook Could this be a repeat of 2008? That is, win every game—including Texas—before losing to Oklahoma and finishing 11-1? Yes, it could. And if Mike Leach were still coaching his system then we would say it's going to happen, but we have to admit to having doubts like everyone else about Tuberville's fit for this team.

There's no question they can beat SMU, another pass-happy team, particularly at home. New Mexico shouldn't provide much resistance. Then the Raiders host Texas, and after seeing them play so close last year it seems that with a shift to Lubbock and with the Longhorns missing Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley, this one's solidly in Tech's favor.

They really should run through the easy part of their Big Twelve slate unscathed; that means they beat Iowa State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Colorado. The next three-game stretch is their toughest: Texas A&M on the road, Missouri, and Oklahoma in Norman. They'll lose at least one game here, we believe, and maybe two or three, before getting Weber State as a breather before facing Houston.

By our game-by-game picks that makes Tech 11-1, though the cumulative projection factors in odds of getting upset and comes up with 8-4. If I had to pick 4 game they will lose it would be Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, and Oklahoma. I think they'll beat Houston in the rematch at home handily.

In fact I think they'll beat Texas, too, and probably Missouri as well. The Texas A&M game shifts to College Station after the Aggies destroyed Tech a year ago. And I think Oklahoma will be very good this year and out for revenge at home. That makes Texas Tech 10-2 in 2010.

A lot depends on Tuberville and his new coaching staff. If they somehow manage to keep Tech's strengths while boosting the weak areas that Tuberville is good at then 11-1 could still happen. But if he doesn't make progress anywhere—and harms the passing attack—then 8-4 is the best they can hope for. We figure he'll do a little of both—muck up the passing game but improve the running game and defense—so the 10-2 prediction stands.

12. Miami Hurricanes (ACC #2; Coastal #2) Polls: AP #13 USA/Coaches #13

2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to Wisconsin 20-14 (Champs) Poll finish: AP #19 USA #19
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #14 Success: #16 Overall: #14
Randy Shannon has won 5, 7, and now 9 games as head coach. Can he win 11 this season?

Offense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #17 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #14
Jacory Harris is back to lead the passing attack, but will Graig Cooper be there to carry the ball?
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #21 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #12
Miami was lucky it was Robert Marve that transferred and not Jacory Harris. Harris, also a "Mr. Football" of Florida, showed what he is capable of last year throwing for 3,352 yards and 24 TDs as a sophomore. Still rough around the edges, he threw 17 interceptions. If he's healthier and more accurate this year will be something special. The top four receivers are back including Leonard Hankerson (801 yards, 6 TDs), Travis Benjamin (501, 4), LaRon Byrd (460) and Alderius Johnson (276). #5, Thearon Collier, was kicked off the team this summer. The only drawback is the offensive line which gave up 35 sacks last year and loses three starters; Harris has had trouble when pressured. Super-recruit Seantrell Henderson could be part of a solution. Harris should have a great year regardless.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #52 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #60
The question all pre-season has concerned Graig Cooper (695 yards), Miami's leading rusher for the past three years. Hurt in the bowl game against Wisconsin (ACL), his recovery was ahead of schedule but others—Damien Berry (#2 with 616 yards last year), Mike James (46 yards as fullback last year) and redshirt frosh Lamar Miller—made gains while he was hurt, leaving open the question of whether he will redshirt this year. As of now the other three are "co-starters" in a 3-man rotation. #3 rusher Javarris James is gone, too, and with the offensive line weaker (before factoring in Henderson at least) the rushing game is down a bit. Three starters—4-year starter Jason Fox, A.J. Trump, and Matt Pipho—are gone while Orlando Franklin and Joel Figueroa are back as seniors. The latest word from Randy Shannon is that Cooper will play in the opener in some fashion, and I've taken this as a sign that Cooper is determined to be back this year. He could stil redshirt and if so the rushing ranking will drop a bit more.

Defense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #17 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #14
The Hurricane defense inches back toward the leve of dominance of the best Miami teams.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #20 Adj. Pass Def: #45 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #34 Sacks: #81
One of Miami's best-ever defensive linemen departs and it doesn't really affect outlook for the defense this season. That's because Eric Moncur hardly played last year, so the only significant hits to the D-line are the loss of starter Joe Joseph and part-time starter Steven Wesley (who was dismissed from the team over the summer). Back are Josh Holmes, Allen Bailey (7 sacks), and half-time starter Marcus Robinson. The Canes lose top tackler Darryl Sharpton (106 tackles) but have #2 Colin McCarthy (9.5 tackles for loss) and Sean Spence back. The secondary has Brandon Harris (15 pass breakups), Vaughn Telemaque, and DeMarcus Van Dyke back. Overall the defense returns seven of the top ten tacklers and has three medical redshirts returning; tackle Marcus Forston and d-backs Ryan Hill and JoJo Nicolas all have starting experience from '08.

Kicking Game: Matt Bosher has been a great punter and kicker for the Hurricanes for years; now a senior, Bosher returns after averaging 42.5 yards per punt and making 14 of 16 field goals. Miami doesn't have to worry about these positions until next year.
Return Game: The kick fielding department is a big question mark right now. Graig Cooper—who may or may not redshirt—took most kickoffs last year (22.4 average) though Mike James (21.3) could take over for him. Thearon Collier handled punts, and handled them well, to the tune of a 13.2 yard average and two touchdowns; he was kicked off the team and transferred to USC. Losing him on the return squad hurts more than losing him as a receiver, where he scored just once; receivers score touchdowns all the time, but it''s doubtful his replacement will take two punts back to the house
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #8
Randy Shannon's first year was a 5-7 flop. The next season was a qualified success at 7-5. Last year was pretty good at 9-4 but could have been better. Will he continue the trend and register 11 wins? And in 2011, 13? That would probably mean a national championship or very close to one. If recruiting is any indication then they're on the right track. This year's class is perhaps a touch lower than FSU's in the ACC and boasts about 10 players considered blue chips by one rating service or another. But the unquestionable prize in this class is offensive lineman Seantrel Henderson, who decommited from USC and joined the Hurricanes. At 6' 8" and 340 lbs., his size is reminiscent of Bryant McKinnie and if his rating can be trusted—he's the consensus #1 offensive lineman and the #1 recruit overall according to some—then he might play like him, too. With the line losing three starters it's hard to believe that he won't earn a starting job some time this season.

2009 Recap Much was written about the deadly 4-game opening run Miami had to navigate; in retrospect it wasn't so horrible, as FSU finished 7-6 and Oklahoma 8-5. Miami won both those games and beat Georgia Tech to boot, but lost to Virginia Tech for a solid 3-1 start. They hit a mid-season snag, losing to Clemson in overtime and nearly losing the next game to Wake Forest but rallied to win 28-27. They lost once more, to North Carolina, giving them 3 losses in the ACC. In the Champs Sports Bowl they scored early but couldn't do anything for the next 55 minutes as Wisconsin won 20-14.

Miami 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Florida A&M	99%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Ohio State	46%	L
9/23	Thu	@	Pittsburgh	56%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Clemson	53%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	58%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Duke	70%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	54%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Virginia	69%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	75%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	51%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	49%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	South Florida	71%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook Miami once again faced four tough games early on, but this year they start with a breather against Florida A&M. Then it's on the road against Ohio State, Pitt, and Clemson, and back home against FSU. And it looks like they should go 3-1 again, losing to the Buckeyes but beating the rest, though 2-2 wouldn't be a surprise given that all the games appear to be close.

After that they get Duke, and North Carolina at home, another narrow win. Virginia and Maryland should be wins, then they travel to Georgia Tech for a truly tossup game. Virginia Tech at home should be close but the Hokies will be great this year. If they beat South Florida that should make 10 wins, more or less, with the cumulative projection reflecting the fact that seven of these games are almost too close to call. With five near-certain wins and 7 tossups, that means that 8 or 9 wins might be expected; give them 9 since they're favorites in the majority.

I'd like to think that Shannon can continue to increase Miami's win total by two, and 10-2 would put him in position. These games will be a lot more exciting if Miami is having a good season. But there are a lot of road games among the close ones so going 9-3 is nothing to be ashamed of, and is certainly a lot better than the season they'll have if they lose all the tossup games.

13. North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC #3; Coastal #3) Polls: AP #18 USA/Coaches #18

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Pittsburgh 19-17 (Car Care) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #25 Success: #27 Overall: #26
North Carolina's offense will be much better, but it's the defense that makes them a top team.

Offense (10 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #76    '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #39
The loaded offense is ready to make a big jump.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #101    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #51
T.J. Yates had some decent numbers in 2009: 60% completions and 14 touchdowns. The problems were twofold: he passed for not much more than 2,000 yards and had 15 interceptions. The cure to the first problem—production—might be in the receiving corps which returns everyone of note. Greg Little had 724 yards while Eric Highsmith, tight end Zack Pianalto, Jheranie Boyd and running back Shaun Draughton combined for over 1,000. The solution to the interception problem might be to give Yates more time. The offensive line gave up 26 sacks last year, and with four starters back that situation should improve. The only thing that could derail a big gain in production this year is the multiple NCAA investigations involving Little and and unknown number of other players. Barring that, Yates should have by far his best year as a senior.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #74    '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #51
As in the passing game, all key personnel return in the backfield including leading rusher Ryan Houston (713 yards, 9 TDs). Power back Houston averaged just 3.7 per carry and Shaun Draughton, who had 567 before he was hurt, will take over again as the starter. Johnny White and receivers Little and Boyd each had over 100. The offensive line will facilitate improvement as four starters return. Kyle Jolly is gone after starting for three years but Alan Pelc, Mike Ingersoll, Jonathan Cooper, and Cam Holland (now a backup) all return. Look for a sizeable jump in rushing yardage this season.

Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #7 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #2*
North Carolina had a top ten defense last year, and this season it will be among the very best—that is, unless half of their first string is suspended.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #5 Adj. Pass Def: #15 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #5 Sacks: #19
The only questionable area on North Carolina's defense is the front four where two starters are gone and a third, Marvin Austin, is one of two primary targets of the NCAA probe. Robert Quinn (11 sacks) is back and Quinton Coples (5 sacks) moves into the starting lineup, so unless Austin is ruled ineligible the defensive line will be just as strong. The defense's real strength begins at linebacker where Quan Sturdivant (#1 tackler, 11 tackles for loss) teams up with Bruce Carter and Kevin Reddick. The secondary was among the nation's best last year and all four starters are back. At cornerback Kendrick Burney (5 interceptions) and Charles Brown (9 pass breakups) return and at safety Deunta Williams (6 interceptions) and Da'Norris Searcy are back. All four are seniors. In all UNC has its top five tacklers back and if they can continue to stop the run nearly as well as last year the defense will be excellent. [*At this time, just before the season starts, at least a half-dozen starters on defense might be suspended for one or more games. I've dealt with this by making a partial docking of the defense's talent which reduces it to the #5 defense. If the worst case happens, it will be much lower. A lot is up in the air about North Carolina's season!]

Kicking Game: Casey Barth made 21 of 25 field goals last year, while Grant Schallock averaged 40.3 yards per punt. Both are back for the Tar Heels.
Return Game: Da'Norris Searcy returned one punt for a touchdown last year and averaged 14.6 per attempt. Johnny White was the primary kickoff returner with a 20.5 average. Both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #34
Butch Davis has North Carolina back on the winning track but fans are hoping he can do what he did for Miami—put the team in contention for the national title. Last year's recruiting class was a big step in that direction as it ranked easily in the top ten. This year's isn't quite as strong but still ranks 4th in the ACC. The class has several consensus blue chips, including offensive linemen James Hurst from Indiana and T.J. Leifheit from Wilmington. But defensive tackle Brandon Willis transferred to UCLA and while running back Giovanni Bernard stayed he tore his ACL and will take a medical redshirt.

2009 Recap Big hopes for the 2009 season dwindled at the loss to Georgia Tech, and moreso after the Heels were upset by Virginia, putting them at 3-2. A loss to FSU made them 4-3 and just 2-3 against FBS teams at that stage. But the season turned around with an upset win at Virginia Tech, and the Tar Heels won the next three including a win over Miami. But disappointment struck again as they were themselves upset at rival North Carolina State, 28-27. They battled Pitt but lost 19-17 in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

UNC 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	N	LSU	51%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	56%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Rutgers	64%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	86%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	58%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Virginia	68%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	46%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	William & Mary	74%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Florida State	51%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	48%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina St.	76%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Duke	69%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Once again things look good in the pre-season, but will they live up to the hype? There's already a cloud on the horizon in the form of two NCAA investigations: one looking into starters Greg Little (WR) and Marvin Austin (DE) as to whether they had prohibited dealings with an agent. A second, wider investigation deals with academics and tutors and involves more (unnamed) starters, mostly on defense.

Rather than try to guess what will happen, whether Little and Austin will be eligible and whether UNC will be able to play in the post-season, let's go with what we know. It's reasonable to assume Little and Austin won't play against LSU in Atlanta, but even with them out the Tar Heels should win. It's going to be close though and is one of the most interesting cross-conference games of the season. I've also docked North Carolina for some of the defensive starters that might be out, while LSU has injuries of their own.

After that they have two weeks to prepare the defense for Georgia Tech and that could be the deciding factor. Four more wins should follow after that and with luck UNC will be 6-0 heading into Miami where they will likely suffer their first loss. William & Mary is next and they might be the best team in the FCS this year. Still, UNC should beat them and even edge FSU on the road (though that's basically a tossup). They get Virginia Tech at home yet still might lose, and they close with two easier games (I assume they can beat their in-state rival at home, and Duke on the road).

That would put them at 10-2, while the cumulative projection sees the odds favoring a couple of upsets and/or different results in the close games. So much is up in the air. If the NCAA investigations go poorly then the team could be crippled and dejected and finish no better than 6-6, which wouldn't even get them to a bowl if they're banned. This is a worst-case scenario, of course.

More likely the Tar Heels finish about 9-3, perhaps falling on the road to FSU, or maybe on the neutral field to LSU if several players are suspended for early games. North Carolina could have a fantastic defense and a good offense this year, and it would be a shame if their off-field activities jeopardize the team's success, but that may happen.

August 30, 2010 at 08:54 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #14 to #16: Wisconsin, Auburn, Texas

This installment covers teams from #14 to #16. To see the full list, click here.

14. Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten #2) Polls: AP #12 USA/Coaches #12

2009 Results: Record: 10-3 Bowl: Beat Miami 20-14 (Champs) Poll finish: AP #16 USA #16
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #29 Success: #17 Overall: #27
Can Wisconsin really be a national title contender? You better believe it.

Offense (10 RS)     '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #27    '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #9
A great offensive line will aid both the passing and rushing game.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #52    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #21
Though Wisconsin is traditionally a power running team, quarterback Scott Tolzien was reasonably productive and efficient as the starter last year with 2,705 yards (64%) and 16 touchdowns vs. 11 interceptions. Among the top receivers the Badgers lose only tight end Garrett Graham (#2 with 624 yards) while Nick Toon (805 yards) returns with Isaac Anderson and the other starting tight end, Lance Kendricks. The offensive line should improve on the 23 sacks allowed last year as five starters return. All things considered (a senior quarterback with his receivers returning and a strong O-line) the Badgers should have a strong passing attack this year.
• Ground Game:   '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #16     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #6
John Clay finished just north of 1,500 yards rushing and scored an amazing 18 touchdowns. Backups Montee Ball and Zach Brown had an inferior per-carry average but added a combined 670, and both backup QB Curt Phillips (out for perhaps six games recovering from a spring ACL tear) and TE Kendricks had over 100. All of the above are back and if that's not enough, the offensive line returns five starters. Seniors John Moffit and Gabe Carimi anchor the line and Kevin Zeitler, Josh Oglesby, and Peter Konz are all back, too. With what should be one of the nation's best O-lines leading a top RB, Wisconsin should easily be a top ten rushing team and Clay could put up Ron Dayne-like numbers.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #34 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #30
The Badgers are weaker up front but about the same overall.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #4 Adj. Pass Def: #49 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #45 Sacks: #9
The defensive line is the area of concern for the Badgers as they lose three starters including O'Brien Schofield who had 12 sacks and an additional 12.5 tackles for loss. That loss alone will sink their top ten sacks rating from '09. Returning is J.J. Watt, who had 11 tackles for loss himself. At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Jaevery McFadden but #2 tackler Culmer St. Jean and co-starters Mike Taylor and Chris Borland (5 sacks) are back (Taylor may miss a number of games while finishing recovery from knee surgery). The secondary loses just one starter as Jay Valai and Devin Smith (9 pass breakups) return along with half-time starters Niles Brinkley and Atonio Fenelus. Overall it appears that the Badgers' top five rushing defense and certainly their top ten sacks rating will be down but the pass coverage should improve.

Kicking Game: Brad Nortman averaged 42 yards per punt while Philip Welch made 17 of 24 field goals (with a long of 57). Both return this year.
Return Game: Receiver David Gilreath was the Badgers' designated return man last year. He averaged just 5.6 yards per punt return despite returning one 68 yards for a touchdown (that's 2.5 yards per return for the rest). As a kickoff returner he averaged a solid 23.7. He's back this year and is on the Paul Hornung Award watchlist.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #32
Bret Bielema has continued to have seasons worthy of Barry Alvarez who he succeeded as head coach. Recruiting this year was good but not spectacular as the Badgers have a dearth of very top players but rather a workmanlike crew of very good ones.

2009 Recap Wisconsin got better as the season progressed last year. At 5-0 the Badgers were very overrated. From barely beating Northern Illinois at home and needing two overtimes to top Fresno State, and edging Michigan State and Minnesota they had not impressed at all; their only convincing win was over Wofford. As expected reality hit and they fell big to Ohio State on the road and Iowa beat them at home. After they blanked Purdue 37-0 and manhandled Michigan but edged Indiana 31-28 and fell 33-31 to Northwestern they became underrated, with many suggesting that they were vulnerable to Hawaii on the road. The Badgers responded by destroying the Warriors 51-10 and, at the end of the month they stifled Miami with a strong pass rush and held on to win 20-14.

Wisconsin 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	UNLV	78%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	99%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Arizona State	77%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Austin Peay	100%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Michigan State	61%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	73%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	50%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Iowa	55%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Purdue	73%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	84%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Michigan	66%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	75%	W
Projection Straight up: 12-0 Cumulative: 9-3

2010 Outlook No one ever mentions Wisconsin as a possible national champion. They've had a handful of 10+ win seasons but even in their best years (1-loss in 1998, 2006) they're never in the mix for the national title. So it seems like no matter how well they do a Rose Bowl trip is all that's on the table.

But any Big Ten team that goes undefeated will be in the national title race. Last year and 2004 were anomalies; normally there are 1-2 undefeated teams, sometimes none, before the bowls. And Wisconsin has a pretty decent shot at going undefeated, with basically two hurdles to jump to get there.

The early schedule is easy with basically two complete gimmes (San Jose State and I-AA Austin Peay at home) and just UNLV as a road game. Michigan State and Minnesota should be fairly easy Big Ten wins, then comes the pivotal part of the year: hosting Ohio State (a complete tossup, we say) and traveling to Iowa.

There's a psychological hurdle, too. Beat Ohio State and the Badgers still have to stay sharp and focused when they go to Iowa City. Win that one and the focus has to remain over the last four weeks against teams they ought to beat.

That's why I figure history will repeat itself and the Badgers will go 11-1 or 10-2 and not be in the national title picture. The 9-3 cumulative projection is too pessimistic as I can't see three games the team should lose, but they probably aren't quite good enough to sustain a 12-0 year.

It's a definite possibility, though, so I'm going to predict that one way or another they will be the Rose Bowl representative, either by being the top team in the Big Ten, or from Ohio State going to the BCS championship game.

15. Auburn Tigers (SEC #4; West #3) Polls: AP #22 USA/Coaches #22

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Northwestern 38-35ot (Outback) Poll finish: AP #32 USA #31
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #26 Success: #29 Overall: #28
Last year Auburn was all offense; this year the defense catches up.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #15 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #21
Auburn loses their quarterback and a 1,000 yard running back but the offense remains strong.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #57    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #62
Quarterback Chris Todd had a productive year with the Tigers, throwing for 2,612 yards, but the more impressive part was his 22 to 6 touchdown to interception ratio, and that's going to be the hard part for JUCO recruit Cameron Newton to replicate when he takes over in the fall. The Tigers still have last year's back up Neil Caudle (20 attempts) and Kodi Burns (started in '08) who moved to receiver but is theoretically available to run the wildcat again. But Newton is probably the one who will lead the offense, and he's got most of last year's best receivers available including Darvin Adams who was 3 yards shy of 1,000 and had 10 TD catches. Terrell Zachary, Mario Fannin, and Eric Smith combined for another 1,000 and 9 TDs. A stronger offensive line will help Newton ease into the job with relative safety, and production will remain roughly the same. The TD:interception ratio is all up to Newton.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #8     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #11
Ben Tate rushed for 1,362 yards as the running game gave Auburn most of its push last season. Ontarrio McCalebb had 565 while Mario Fannin averaged 8.4 yards per carry and added 285 (receiver Terrell Zachary beat that by gaining 214 yards in just 9 carries—a 23.8 yard average—due to runs of 67, 60, and 50 yards). With Tate gone the others will have to pick up the slack—1,000 yards of it. It's possible, thanks to the offensive line which returns four starters. Andrew McCain is gone but he had only started one season, whereas Ryan Pugh, Byron Isom, Mike Berry, and Lee Ziemba are all seniors with over 8 years of starting experience combined. The group's production should slip only slightly.

Defense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #56 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #18
The Tigers lose their best lineman and best cornerback and still make a great leap forward on D.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #54 Adj. Pass Def: #71 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #18 Sacks: #31
The Auburn defensive line has two starters back, Mike Blanc and Antoine Carter, both seniors. But one of the two lost is Antonio Coleman, who had 10 sacks. Although this doesn't bode well at all for having an effective pass rush, the team's rushing defense may improve because of all the experience at linebacker. All three starters return—Josh Bynes (#1 tackler w/104), Craig Stevens (#2 tackler), and Eltoro Freeman—and starting safety Darren Bates joins them. The team's pass defense was solid last year despite the yardage given up and this year should be even better. Though Bates moves to LB and best player Walter McFadden (10 pass breakups, 6 interceptions) moves on the NFL, Neiko Thorpe and Zac Etheridge return and re-joining the secondary are '08 starter Mike McNeil and '06(!) starter Aairon Savage. The team's top five tacklers are back and with a strong linebacker corps the Auburn defense will be the equal of the offense. In any case, they will no longer be what holds the team back.

Kicking Game: Kicker Wes Byrum is still with the team; a senior now he's made some memorable kicks for the Tigers and was 15 of 16 last year. Punter Clinton Durst departs after averaging 40.8 per kick, and Ryan Shoemaker—who averaged 42.4 ypp for the Tigers in 2007—will reclaim his old job.
Return Game: Auburn had no effective punt returners last year and Quindarius Carr will try to rectify that. Demond Washington had a touchdown on a kickoff return last year, pumping his average up to 31.1 yards, and Mario Fannin (21.2) will continue to field kicks as well.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #4
Auburn's 2010 recruiting class is, at worst, in a 3-way tie for 2nd in the SEC. Gene Chizik hasn't missed a beat compared to Tommy Tuberville in that area. There has also been less attrition from the group than there was last year; the biggest loss so far was due to cancer, which may end blue chip offensive lineman Shon Coleman's career. Michael Dyer from Little Rock was one of the very top-rated running backs in the nation, and QB Cameron Newton is a dual-threat slated to start this year after his team won the JUCO national championship in '09.

2009 Recap Last year we predicted that Auburn would start 5-0 and create big expectations, then finish a mediocre 7-5. Not surprisingly when Auburn did in fact start 5-0 the team jumped into the Top 25. But as we foretold, it wouldn't last. They lost 5 of the next 7 and finished 7-5, but with one twist: instead of beating Kentucky they lost to them, which caused some distress as they dropped three games in a row. But then they actually beat Mississippi for their best win of the year. They played Alabama pretty tough in their last game, too, but fell 26-21. Northwestern fought them to the very end—overtime even—and Auburn needed several botched kicks by the Wildcats to win. In the end the team was better than we forecast even as the predicted record matched.

Auburn 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	88%	W
9/9	Thu	@	*Mississippi State	56%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Clemson	57%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	57%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	95%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Kentucky	62%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	44%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*LSU	57%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Mississippi	56%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	Tenn.-Chattanooga	96%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	62%	W
11/26	Fri	@	*Alabama	39%	L
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook This year the Tigers could start 6-0, and better still? There probably won't be any collapse at the end. With only Arkansas and Alabama as "solid" losses, the team could finish 10-2.

There are a lot of caveats to this, of course. Namely that three of the first six games—Mississippi State, Clemson, and South Carolina—are not gimmes at all. Later on LSU and Ole Miss are counted as wins, too, and will be just as difficult. It's almost more reasonable to assume the Tigers will go 3-2 in those games (maybe winning the home contests) and give them an 8-4 record. That's pretty much what the cumulative projection does to reach it's 8-4 conclusion.

All of this is contingent on a few things: the new quarterback has to be competent (not great, just competent). The running game can't slip very much. And the defense has to improves as much as I expect it to, which is a lot. Without those things happening the team could sink below .500.

But I expect those things to happen at least to a certain degree, meaning that a 10-2 record is not wishful thinking. Maybe it's more realistic to at least expect the Tigers to drop one of the five aforementioned games and finish 9-3. Either way, a good year in Gene Chizik's third season.

16. Texas Longhorns (Big Twelve #4; South #3) Polls: AP #5 USA/Coaches #4

2009 Results: Record: 13-1 Bowl: Lost to Alabama 37-21 (BCS Title) Poll finish: AP #2 USA #2
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #3 Success: #6 Overall: #4
Texas floundered in the BCS title game without Colt McCoy; now they have a whole season without him.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #1 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #28
The McCoy to Shipley express has left the station and with it, much of Texas' offense.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #17    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #79
There could be no better demonstration of Colt McCoy's worth to the Texas football team than last year's national championship game, which will forever have Longhorn fans asking "what if?" McCoy's final season saw him have another astounding completion rate (71%) pass for over 3,500 yards with 27 touchdowns. The interceptions (12) were higher but he led Texas to 13 wins—almost blowing the Nebraska game in the final seconds. He finished #3 in the Heisman voting after finishing #2 in 2008. Garrett Gilbert showed flashes of brilliance in replacing him, along with moments of utter incompetence; hopefully being thrust onto that stage will do him years of good. He had 2 TD passes and 4 interceptions in the title game. Both of those touchdowns went to leading receiver Jordan Shipley (116 receptions, 1,485 yards, 13 TDs) and he's gone which is going to make things tough on Gilbert. He'll have Malcolm Williams and James Kirkendoll (~1,000 yards combined) and three out of the four others that had 100+ yards, but it's not the same as having a clutch player like Shipley who deserves a lot of credit for McCoy's success. The offensive line allowed 31 sacks last year and loses three starters, not ideal for breaking in a new QB. In all Texas is going to have some growing pains as they switch to Garrett Gilbert; by the end of the year I think he'll be doing great but there will be bumps along the way.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #44     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #54
In 2008 Colt McCoy led the team in rushing; last year he was only #2 as Tre Newton finished with 552 yards to McCoy's 348. Cody Johnson was the big scorer with 12 touchdowns (335 yards) and Vondrell McGee had 300. In all six players rushed for over 100 yards and of them McCoy is the only one gone. That's the good news. The bad news is that the offensive line loses a lot of experience as 4-year starter Adam Ulatoski and 3-year starters Chris Hall and Charlie Tanner depart. Back are seniors Michael Huey and Kyle Hix but the weaker line, coupled with a starting quarterback with limited running ability in comparison to McCoy, probably means the ground game won't move forward. Johnson was named the starter for game one.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #13 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #12
Texas returns a lot of talent but loses at least one crucial player in each section of the defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #3 Adj. Pass Def: #4 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #10 Sacks: #8
The losses on the defensive line hit hard—both Lamar Houston (8 sacks plus 14 tackles for loss) and Sergio Kindle (5.5 sacks and a further 16.5 tackles for loss!) are gone. Two starters, Kheeston Randle and Sam Acho (10 sacks) are back, and Eddie Jones (5 sacks) moves into the lineup to help try to preserve the Longhorns' top ten sacks rating (the Texas D had 44 total). Things get a bit complicated when looking at returning starters for the "back seven" as Texas starts in a 4-2-5 and uses a 4-3 for much of the game. In 4-2-5 mode, 1 of 2 linebackers returns with 4 of 5 in the secondary; in 4-3, 2 of 3 LBs return and 3 of 4 corners and safeties. In either configuration there are five starters back. Anyhoo: Roddrick Muckelroy (#1 tackler w/102) is the linebacker lost, and Earl Thomas (#2 tackler, 16 pass breakups, 8 interceptions) is missing from the secondary, which are two huge losses. The other starting linebacker, Keenan Robinson, is back with the third LB Emmanuel Acho, and the secondary returnees include Blake Gideon (6 interceptions), Aaron Williams, and both Curtis and Chykie Brown (23 pass breakups combined). A ton of talent returns but Texas still loses four of its top five tacklers.

Kicking Game: Justin Tucker was Texas' main punter last year (40.4 average) but he lost out to John Gold (44.1 average) late in the year. No worries; Tucker will succeed placekicker Hunter Lawrence (24 of 27 FG last year).
Return Game: Receiver Jordan Shipley's value to the team was also as a punt returner. Last year he averaged 13 yards per return and took two back for touchdowns. Texas had 3 kickoff TD returns, too, one by receiver Marquise Goodwin and two by running back D.J. Monroe. Both of them are back in '10 and corner Aaron Williams will take over on punts.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #3
Another year, another top recruiting class for Mack Brown. Though Texas finishes #3 in the nation they still aren't #1 in the Big Twelve, with Oklahoma edging them. Linebacker Jordan Hicks and defensive end Jackson Jeffcoat are uber-blue chips who may be the top players at their position in the 2010 recruiting class.

2009 Recap It all went to plan until the last game. Texas seemed destined to make it to the BCS championship game after coming within one play in 2008. Though sometimes not impressive and playing mostly weak opposition, the Longhorns did what they needed to do. They won ugly a lot—Oklahoma and Texas A&M come to mind—but they won, going 12-0 in the regular season. Their ugliest win was in the Big Twelve title game against Nebraska where Colt McCoy was a split-second away from tossing the national championship berth into the stands. But they dodged that bullet and got the winning field goal they needed. Against Alabama they looked good early, then McCoy was dinged in just the right spot to make his arm numb and useless. Backup Garrett Gilbert was awful early on, gifting the Tide a shovel-pass touchdown at the end of the half. He recovered to make the game almost interesting later on before making more freshman mistakes. Had McCoy remained the game would have been completely different and while the outcome could have been the same, it's telling how close Texas came to winning without him.

Texas 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Rice	84%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Wyoming	78%	W
9/18	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	44%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	UCLA	67%	W
10/2	Sat	N	*Oklahoma	40%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Nebraska	43%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	76%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	71%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Kansas State	68%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	73%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	88%	W
11/25	Thu	vs.	*Texas A&M	56%	W
Projection Straight up: 9-3 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook It doesn't look like Texas has a very good chance of returning to the national title game, and even the Big Twelve championship game is going to be a tough nut to crack. The first hurdle is Texas Tech, a team the Longhorns only beat 34-24 last season at home and who returns just about everyone. Then after UCLA comes to visit, back to back games against Oklahoma and Nebraska—both out for revenge—will likely have the Longhorns 3-3 by mid-season.

Then the easy part of the schedule arrives and Texas should sweep the 2nd half. Only Texas A&M might be a problem and by then Gilbert will be running the offense with precision. That makes the Longhorns 9-3. The cumulative projection has them 8-4 in case of an upset, and the only one I can see is A&M. But that's unlikely in Austin. Neither do I see Texas getting a win against Tech, OK, or Nebraska, as all those are on the road (or "neutral" Dallas). This is one of the most clear and confident predictions I've made for any team: Texas will definitely be 9-3* in 2010.

*unless they do better or worse than that.

August 30, 2010 at 03:19 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 29, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #17 to #19: Georgia Tech, Florida State, Stanford

This installment covers teams from #17 to #19. To see the full list, click here.

17. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (ACC #4; Coastal #4) Polls: AP #16 USA/Coaches #17

2009 Results: Record: 11-3 Bowl: Lost to Iowa 24-14 (Orange) Poll finish: AP #13 USA #13
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #9 Success: #10 Overall: #10
The offense won't be quite so high-powered this year and Tech will slide in the Coastal division.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #2 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #13
Losing a 1,000 yard rusher and (incredibly) a 1,000 yard receiver hurts the offense.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #112    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #111
Josh Nesbitt completed only 46% of his passes, but that's not too important when A) your team is one of the best rushing teams in the country and B) your average completion goes for nearly 23 yards. In fact, Georgia Tech was even #1 in the nation in passing yards per attempt. The Tech pass play is a great diversion from the run and Nesbitt took advantage, throwing for 1,701 yards and 10 TDs with 5 interceptions. But eight of those TDs went to one man, Demaryius Thomas, who somehow managed to have 1,154 receiving yards on a team with a bottom 10 passing offense. Having a 1,000 yard season is impressive even at Texas Tech, but at Georgia Tech? No wonder he was a first-round NFL draft pick. The next four return but total about 1/2 of Thomas' receptions and yardage though each averaged over 20 yards per reception except, ironically, starting wide receiver Tyler Melton. Nesbitt should be more accurate in his senior year but without "Bay-Bay" Thomas the passing game won't be any more significant to the team than it was last year.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #2     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #5
The Ramblin' Wreck's option attack continued to bowl over opponents with two 1,000 yard rushers: QB Nesbitt (1,037 yards, 18 touchdowns) and Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 and 14). Dwyer's departure leaves a gap at the "B-back" position that Anthony Allen (618 yards last year) should fill nicely as he averaged 9.7 yards per carry. Other returnees include Roddy Jones (345), Marcus Wright (190), Embry Peeples (170), and Preston Lyons (139). While that's a lot of yards that can help replace Dwyer, the offensive line won't be quite as strong as three starters depart. Gone are Cord Howard, Brad Sellers, and Joseph Gilbert (who transferred to literal upstart Georgia State); seniors Sean Bedford and Austin Barrack return with Nick Claytor who started part-time in '08. The running game will still be among the best in the nation but won't vie for the top spot.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #37 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #24
Georgia Tech's defense will be a big positive in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #64 Adj. Pass Def: #44 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #54 Sacks: #87
The defense switches to a 3-4 this year and with Logan Walls and Ben Anderson (now 2nd string) back the defensive line should be solid even with the loss of Derrick Morgan. But Morgan had 12.5 sacks last year, half the team's total, so Tech's already-dismal pass rush could get even worse. Despite losing a starter and having another slot to fill the four-man linebacker squad has a lot going for it. Anthony Egbuniwe moves in from the D-line and Steven Sylvester and Brad Jefferson (#1 tackler) return, while '08 starter Kyle Jackson is back, too. The secondary boasts Mario Butler and Jerrard Tarrant but without Morgan pressuring up front they may be busier. Overall though the defense should be much stronger; though they lose three of the top five tacklers the next 11 return.

Kicking Game: Punter Chandler Anderson (42.3 yards per punt) and kicker Scott Blair (14 of 20 field goals) are both back.
Return Game: Jerrard Tarrant returned two punts for touchdowns in 2009, jacking his average up to 13.4 per return. Orwin Smith had a solid 24.0 average on kickoff returns. Both are back for this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #51
Paul Johnson has had two years now to turn Georgia Tech into a triple-option nightmare for opponents, and by and large he's succeeded. Even in his first year the team went 8-4 during the season, and last year they were 10-2 then won the ACC title game. But both years the offense was stifled in the bowl game: first 38-3 by LSU, then 24-14 by Iowa (with one touchdown by the Tech defense). That means in two bowl games—where the opponent has a month to prepare—Tech's high-powered option has scored only 10 points. Something to keep in mind for this year's showdowns with North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Georgia, all of whom have 2 weeks to prepare. Two D-backs, Louis Young and Ryan Ayers, are this year's recruiting class's consensus blue chips.

2009 Recap The Yellow Jackets edged Clemson to start 2-0 but were handled easily by Miami, 33-17. But then the Wreck went on a ramble, winning eight straight games including a key upset of Virginia Tech and an overtime win against Wake Forest to put themselves in the ACC title game. Just before that, though, their streak came to and end as Georgia beat them 30-24 at home. But they beat Clemson in a second close game (39-34) and made it to the Orange Bowl. There, they were whipped 24-14 by Iowa whose defense smothered the option perfectly. Still, they were 11-2 on the season.

Georgia Tech 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	South Carolina St.	87%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Kansas	70%	W
9/18	Sat	@	*North Carolina	44%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina St.	73%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	64%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	71%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	M. Tennessee St.	71%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Clemson	49%	L
11/4	Thu	@	*Virginia Tech	38%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	49%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Duke	72%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Georgia	53%	W
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook It really does seem that teams with extra time to prepare for Georgia Tech do a lot better. Give a good defense a month, like LSU and Iowa had, and the Tech option is shut down. Miami had 10 days to prepare last year before beating them, and in 2008 Virginia Tech had Furman the week before while North Carolina had an open week. So that's 5 out of 7 losses in which their opponent had more than the standard one week to prepare.

This year North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Georgia all have an open week before facing the Wreck. Since we've already got GTech losing the first two that leaves the Georgia game—which is in Athens this year—as one to watch.

Either way Georgia Tech should have another good year. Only North Carolina out of their first seven opponents should beat them. Then they travel to Clemson for what should be a tossup, but the Tigers will be out for blood after having lost twice in close games last year. Following that is another road opponent who will want revenge, Virginia Tech. The pivotal game is Miami at home, which could go either way. The final game at Georgia should be a win unless the Bulldogs get their defense ready for the option.

In all that makes the team 8-4 or 9-3 depending on Miami but very unlikely to repeat as Coastal champs, let alone ACC champs. The 7-5 cumulative projection is just too conservative, as there are seven solid wins on the board; it's essentially a worst-case scenario. Tech has a good shot at another 10+ win season, by scoring an upset somewhere and/or by winning their bowl game, but I don't think they'll get past Virginia Tech this time so further aspirations will have to wait. Giving them one of two against Clemson and Miami, the Rambling Wreck should finish 9-3 this year.

18. Florida State Seminoles (ACC #5; Atlantic #1) Polls: AP #20 USA/Coaches #20

2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Beat West Virginia 33-21 (Gator) Poll finish: AP #34 USA #38
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #34 Success: #32 Overall: #33
The Jimbo Fisher era begins at Florida State with another hopeful pre-season.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #13    '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #4
A stronger ground game will complement a great passing attack in one of the best offenses in the country.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #19    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #6
Christian Ponder is widely expected to have a great senior year and some consider him a Heisman candidate. That depends on how well the Seminoles do, of course, but after throwing for 2,717 yards (with 69% completions) and 14 touchdowns (vs. 7 interceptions) in 2/3 of a season he'll be expected to post great numbers if he's healthy all year. He'll be protected by a line that returns all five starters and he has talented targets at receiver. The loss of top man Rod Owens (729 yards) and the summer dismissal of Jarmon Fortson (#3 with 610) kept the passing game from reaching a top five ranking, but they still have Bert Reed and Taiwan Easterling (1,152 yards combined) and three others who caught 10 or more passes. Backup QB E.J. Manuel had an interception problem (2 TDs, 6 int) but was otherwise accurate (65%) and will be ready in case Ponder is hurt again.
• Ground Game '09    Adj. Rush Ranking: #28    '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #12
The Seminoles spread out their rushing yardage among several running backs with Jermaine Thomas the leader at 832 yards and 9 touchdowns. Ty Jones was #2 with 251 and Lonnie Pryor and Chris Thompson both had over 100, but the #3 and #4 rushers were the team's mobile QBs. Ponder is famous for his running and had 179 net (318 gross) while Manuel had 196 net due to only losing 30 yards on sacks. The offensive line should not only reduce Ponder's sack losses but clear big paths for Thomas and company. All five starters are back, with seniors Ryan McMahon and Rodney Hudson and juniors David Spurlock, Zebrie Sanders, and Andrew Datko, all of whom have started since their freshman years.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #70 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #89
The defense, unfortunately, will hamper FSU's ability to rejoin the college football elite this year.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #101 Adj. Pass Def: #75 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #98 Sacks: #76
The Seminoles' sordid rushing defense from '09 will get better as the front seven improves but it still won't be ideal. The defensive had three starters back before Moses McCray was lost due to knee injuries; Marcus White (8.5 tackles for loss) and Everett Dawkins are back. At linebacker Kendall Smith and Nigel Bradham, the team's top two tacklers, return with backup Mister Alexander (5 sacks) while starter Dekoda Watson (6.5 sacks) departs and potential starter Nigel Carr was kicked off the team. The secondary faces big losses as they lose starters Korey Mangum, Jamie Robinson (4 interceptions), and Patrick Robinson (11 pass breakups) while backup Dionte Allen transferred. Ochuko Jenije (4 int) returns. Overall the defense's problems remain; they might just be shifted around a bit.

Kicking Game: Punter Shawn Powell (41.6 yd. ave) returns with kicker Dustin Hopkins (19 of 27 field goals last year).
Return Game: Cornerback Greg Reid was a strong kick returner in '09, with an excellent 18.4 average on punt returns (1 touchdown) and 25.5 yards per kickoff. He could be even better in his sophomore year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #7
Recruiting has always been good at FSU and this year is no exception for Jimbo Fisher's debut. The best class in the ACC boasts nearly a dozen blue chips, the best of whom is D-back Lamarcus Joyner from Ft. Lauderdale, one of the nation's top prospects. They even got a gift from USC in the form of Glen Stanley, who transferred due to the sanctions. Though the program faltered in Bobby Bowden's last decade it never went underwater, something few coaches and programs can say; even all-time winner Joe Paterno had four losing seasons during that span. Bowden was ousted in a way that Penn State couldn't bring itself to do to Paterno five years ago, a victim of his own success from the mid-80s to the late 90s.

2009 Recap FSU's 2009 began the way every season has recently—with the hope of a return to double-digit wins that they enjoyed for 14 straight seasons in their heyday. They lost the opener to Miami on an end-zone incompletion and struggled with I-AA Jacksonville State, but after blowing up BYU for 54 points there was some hope. Three straight losses—South Florida, Boston College, and Georgia Tech— killed that hope. The defense continued to let the team down throughout the season as they gave up 27, 42, 28, and 26 points in their subsequent wins, and 40 and 37 in losses to Clemson and Florida. Bowden's "retirement" was announced before the Gator Bowl, where an undeserving 6-6 Seminole squad was shuttled to pair Bowden with his former team. FSU played well and won 33-21, ensuring that Bowden wouldn't have a losing season to blemish his record since the one in 1976, his first year at the helm.

FSU 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Samford	91%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Oklahoma	37%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Brigham Young	66%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	70%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Virginia	64%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	42%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	61%	W
10/28	Thu	@	*North Carolina St.	67%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	49%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	54%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Maryland	65%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	Florida	45%	L
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook FSU might not make it back to double-digit wins this year, but they've got a good shot as they could make it to the ACC title game as the Atlantic representative. In any case they should have a good year by recent standards.

Scheduling a game at Oklahoma rather than taking on a Sun Belt team this year shows courage but probably ends up hurting their record. They do start with FCS team Samford and should be 4-1 after beating BYU, Wake, and Virginia.

That sets up a showdown at Miami that looks like a loss this year but they should rebound with victories over B.C. and N.C. State. In their last four games they face North Carolina, Clemson, and Florida, all top 25 teams but all at home so they have a chance to win two or even three of those, but most likely they'll go 1-2. This would leave them 8-4 or maybe 7-5 if they're upset somewhere along the line.

FSU has 7 pretty solid wins on the board and only one loss that looks inevitable. Split the rest and they're 9-3, and by winning either the ACC title game or a bowl, that would be 10 wins. Particularly of note is the UNC game, a tossup in Tallahassee against a team that might be crippled by sanctions (or not). I think it's about even odds whether FSU finishes 8-4 or 9-3 in the regular season, and they might have two chances after that to pad their record further.

19. Stanford Cardinal (Pac-10 #2) Polls: AP #27 USA/Coaches #32

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Oklahoma 31-27 (Sun) Poll finish: AP #29 USA #30
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #23 Success: #22 Overall: #23
QB Andrew Luck, special teams, and good recruiting give the Cardinal a boost in the wake of Toby Gerhart's departure.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #6 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #10
Andrew Luck's passing will make up for (most of) the loss of Toby Gerhart.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #63    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #35
Andrew Luck is high on many people's draft boards, fantasy leagues, and even Heisman lists after a strong performance as a freshman. He passed for 2,575 yards and 13 touchdowns with just 4 interceptions. If he raises his completion rate (56%) he'll have the whole package as he can run, too. His three top receivers are back: Ryan Whalen (926 yards), Chris Owusu (682), and Coby Fleener (266). The offensive line gave up just 7 sacks (#1 in the nation, adjusted for opposition) and is just as good this year. The only thing preventing Luck from having an even bigger leap is that he won't have Gerhart to distract the defense's attention.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #10     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #22
Toby Gerhart was a Heisman finalist last year and bowled over defenses to the tune of 1,871 yards and and astounding 28 touchdowns. His loss is going to create the need for a lot of adjustment on offense. Sophomore Stepfan Taylor had 303 yards while senior Jeremy Stewart added 107 (343 two years ago) and one of them will inherit Gerhart's mantle. QB Luck was actually the team's #2 rusher with 343, with a lot of help from an offensive line that rarely let opposing defenses get sack yardage. With four starters back the line should be even stronger and make the unenviable task of following Gerhart's act a bit easier. Chase Beeler, Andrew Phillips, Jonathan Martin, and David DeCastro are all back while Chris Marinelli departs. Neither Taylor or Stewart will match Gerhart's output—they probably won't, combined—but Stanford will still have an excellent running game.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #61 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #63
The change to a 3-4 might leave the defense no better or worse than last year, but it's worth a shot.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #61 Adj. Pass Def: #106 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #76 Sacks: #88
The four-man defensive line is dispersed as Thomas Keiser moves to linebacker, Ekom Udofia departs, and several players made up another slot and some are gone, leaving Sione Fua as the only real returning starter as the line switches to 3-man. At linebacker in addition to Keiser they have sophomores Shane Skov and Chase Thomas back. The secondary loses #1 tackler Bo McNally but Richard Sherman and Delano Howell return along with two half-time starters. Overall just 6 of the top 12 tacklers return, however.

Kicking Game: Both punter David Green (41.2 average) and kicker Nate Whitaker (made 16 of 22 field goals last year) are back.
Return Game: Receiver Chris Owusu returned three kickoffs for touchdowns in 2009 giving him a 31.5 yard average in that department. Corner Richard Sherman returned one punt for a TD and averaged 10.3 per attempt. Both are back on one of the strongest kick return teams in the nation.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #23
Jim Harbaugh had a lot of detractors when he came to Stanford but he's gotten the job done; Stanford had their first winning season since 2001 last year. He's recruited well, too, with his 2nd straight top 25 class. This one features three consensus blue chip players: QB Brett Nottingham and running back Anthony Wilkerson from California, and linebacker Blake Lueders of Indiana.

2009 Recap With high hopes (and our prediction of a winning season) Stanford began 2009 with a strong win over weak Washington State, then stumbled (with the help of questionable officiating) to Wake Forest in game two. They got three more unimpressive wins before falling to Oregon State and Arizona, and it didn't seem like anything special was going to happen to this 4-3 team. Then with Toby Gerhart getting Heisman attention they won three straight, beating both Oregon (51-42) and USC (55-21). The latter win showed how far the program had come as it was a record loss for the Trojans at home. They fell to Cal, though, preventing a Rose Bowl year but beat Notre Dame as Gerhart ran wild. They fought Oklahoma hard but lost in the Sun Bowl 31-27.

Stanford 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Sacramento State	98%	W
9/11	Sat	@	*UCLA	59%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Wake Forest	69%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Notre Dame	57%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Oregon	38%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Southern Cal	60%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	89%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Washington	49%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	61%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Arizona State	66%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*California	55%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	59%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook Life looks good post-Gerhart for this team. In fact only one game looks out of reach making 11-1 a possibility.

Certainly the year starts out easy with I-AA Sacramento State. They should get revenge on Wake at home and even UCLA and Notre Dame on the road don't appear all that daunting; the Cardinal should be 3-1 at worst at this point. Then comes Oregon on the road and very probable defeat.

After that they face USC at home (no biggie, right?) another gimme (Washington State), then travel to Washington for their pivotal game. The last four games are wins of varying certainty, but there are at least six games they can count on as wins, making the cumulative projection of 8-4 very reasonable and 10-2 not outlandish. Since it's hard to count either Notre Dame or USC as an "automatic" I would expect around 9 wins from this team, but—I have to say it, sorry—with a little more Luck this season could be one to remember.

August 29, 2010 at 06:22 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #20 to #22: South Carolina, Clemson, LSU

This installment covers teams from #20 to #22. To see the full list, click here.

20. South Carolina Gamecocks (SEC #5; East #2) Polls: AP #29 USA/Coaches #34

2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Lost to UConn 20-7 (PapaJohn's) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #35 Success: #43 Overall: #37
South Carolina will be better in every way but it might not show up in their record.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #82 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #51
Improvements across the entire offense should lead to a more respectable scoring output.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #38    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #25
Stephen Garcia's time might finally come. After two years of not living up to his promise, he could have a breakthrough year. Or not, we'll have to see. Last season was a big step as he started the entire year and threw for 2,862 yards and 17 touchdowns. He had 10 interceptions and only completed 55%, though. Part of the problem was a porous offensive line that allowed 37 sacks; there should be some improvement but it will be up to Garcia and his receivers, most of whom return. Top man Alshon Jeffery (763 yards, 6 TDs) is back, as is #3 Tori Gurley (440) but Moe Brown departs and starting tight end Weslye Saunders appears to be headed for ineligibility or dismissal as the season approaches. The group is deep, though, so the passing game still looks like a top 25 unit more or less.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #81     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #59
Kenny Miles, Brian Maddox, and Jarvis Giles combined for over 1,000 yards and Garcia added 186. All are back but there's a good chance true freshman Marcus Lattimore will start. Either way the rushing numbers should be juiced into the arena of respectability. The offensive line loses Lemuel Jeanpierre and half-time starter Garrett Anderson, while another part-timer, Quintin Richardson, is both suspended and injured so we assume won't play this year (update: and he just announced he's transferring). That leaves T.J. Johnson as the only full-time starter back, but Hutch Eckerson and Jarriel King started the majority, Kyle Nunn started about half-time, and Terrence Campbell started most of 2008. In any case it's an experienced line that should allow for a stronger running game.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #12 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #10
An already-tough defense gets just a bit tougher.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #19 Adj. Pass Def: #7 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #13 Sacks: #25
The Gamecock defense was strong across the board last season. This year the 4-3 defensive line has two starters back, Ladi Ajiboye and Cliff Matthews, the co-team leader with 7 sacks. The other co-leader was linebacker Eric Norwood who departs, but #1 tackler Shaq Wilson is back with Antonio Allen. The secondary has three starters back: corners Stephon Gilmore and Chris Culliver (17 pass breakups, combined) are joined by safety Akeem Auguste. The defense is again going to be the strength of the team.

Kicking Game: Spencer Lanning is back to handle both punting and placekicking chores. Last year he averaged 41.9 yards per punt and made 17 of 20 field goals.
Return Game: Stephon Gilmore (10.1 average) will again field punts, and Bryce Sherman (20.9) who shared kickoff return duties with corner Chris Culliver (22.5) last year, will do so again. Both are sophomores.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #44
Spurrier has had five years of middling success with the Gamecocks now and like the fans really wants that breakthrough year. Last year's recruiting class was nearly top ten and this one is smaller, ranking only 44th and nearer the bottom than the top of the SEC. Marcus Lattimore comes from Duncan, South Carolina and many have rated him the top running back prospect in the nation. He could very well start as a true freshman.

2009 Recap The Gamecocks started 2009 off with a fizzle, a 7-3 win over N.C. State, but a win is a win and though they lost to Georgia in game 2, they got many more wins in the coming weeks, including a 16-10 upset of Mississippi. At 5-1 they visited Alabama and lost 20-6 but their defense continued to keep them in games as they beat Vandy just 14-10. They lost three straight, falling 24-14 to Florida after giving them a lot of trouble. They came up with one last big effort, beating Clemson 34-17 but fell to UConn in the PapaJohn's Bowl.

South Carolina 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Southern Miss	65%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	58%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Furman	87%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Auburn	43%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	41%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Kentucky	59%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	71%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	69%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	40%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Florida	38%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	Troy	84%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Clemson	47%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Look for the defense to keep South Carolina in the game this season, too, and for the offense to contribute more than last year. The season starts with a few good tests at home but the Gamecocks should handle Southern Miss and even Georgia fairly easily. Furman is a gimme but then they travel to Auburn and Alabama, two of the best teams in the SEC. Another three wins in a row should follow before they meet Arkansas and Florida back-to-back. Troy should be a win; Clemson on the road will be close but probably no cigar.

That makes for a 7-5 season, and the cumulative projection concurs. So do I, since most of the outcomes seem relatively clearcut. Falling short of bowl eligibility would require being upset twice, and surpassing 8 wins would mean beating some very good teams. Even getting to 8-4 is unlikely; the Clemson game is the best chance, and with the Tigers out for revenge at home that will be a tall order. So it appears to be another good-to-mediocre year for Spurrier and crew unless they pull a surprise out of the hat—for example, if Lattimore does a convincing Adrian Peterson impression.

21. Clemson Tigers (ACC #6; Atlantic #2) Polls: AP #35 USA/Coaches #31

2009 Results: Record: 9-5 Bowl: Beat Kentucky 21-13 (Music City) Poll finish: AP #24 USA #28
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #15 Success: #31 Overall: #18
Because Clemson underachieved last year the Tigers may do just as well without C.J. Spiller.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #22 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #24
The Tigers get Kyle Parker for one more year before losing him to baseball.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #65    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #58
Kyle Parker was almost too good of a baseball player for the football team. A dual-sport star, as a freshman Parker passed for over 2,500 yards and 20 touchdowns and fans waited to see what he could do as a sophomore but dreaded the MLB draft. But Parker declared he was returning, and recently announced an agreement with the Colorado Rockies to allow him to play football one more year. That's great news for the Tigers, who didn't want to have to replace their quarterback in addition to their top three pass catchers: wide receiver Jacoby Ford, tight end Michael Palmer, and running back C.J. Spiller, who combined for nearly 1,800 yards and 14 TD catches. But four others who had over 100 yards return including Xavier Dye and tight end Dwayne Allen. The offensive line gave good protection last year (#31) and should be even better. The loss of top receivers prevents huge gains here but Parker should be even better as a soph.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #32     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #47
C.J. Spiller contributed in many ways to the team and his 1,212 yards and 12 TDs were major aspects. But he wasn't the only solid tailback as Andre Ellington had 491 yards with a 7.2 average and Jamie Harper had 418. The offensive line loses starter Thomas Austin but returning are Chris Hairston, Landon Walker, Antoine McClain, and Dalton Freeman. With such a strong O-line Ellington and Harper will do just fine, maybe not making up all of Spiller's contribution but having respectable totals each. Ellington in particular seems to have potential to be a great some day, perhaps this year as a sophomore.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #16 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #16
It's pretty much a wash; a lot of talent is lost, and a lot returns, keeping Clemson's D in the top 25.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #40 Adj. Pass Def: #12 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #19 Sacks: #24
The defensive line loses Ricky Sapp, who had 5 sacks and an additional 10 tackles for loss last year. Three starters return: Da'Quan Bowers, Brandon Thompson, and Jarvis Jenkins (who also had 10 tacklers for loss) but solid backup Jamie Cumbie was dismissed. They lose two of three starters at linebacker including Kavell Conner (#1 tackler w/111) while Brandon Maye (103 tackles) returns. The secondary should be fine despite losing Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor (19 pass breakups combined) as Marcus Gilchrist (107 tackles) and DeAndre McDaniel (102 tackles, 8 interceptions) return with Rashard Hall (6 int). Overall five of the top six tacklers return.

Kicking Game: Dawson Zimmerman had just a 39.1 yard per punt average, and kicker Richard Jackson made only 20 of 31 attempts. They're both back, is that good news? I guess they can only improve or someone else take their jobs, so ironically in relative terms this area is a strength.
Return Game: C.J. Spiller's biggest contribution to the team might have been as a kick returner. The Tigers will have another 1,000 yard rusher soon and 500-yard receivers are a dime a dozen. But where is the next return man who will score on four kickoffs and a punt? Once again it's bizarro world because having had Spiller (insane 26.3 average on punts and 32.8 on kickoffs) and Jacoby Ford (1 punt return TD), this year's team must be downgraded. Think about it: even if they get a punt returner who takes one back for a touchdown, and a kickoff returner who does the same, that's a decline of four touchdowns from last year. Losing 24 points over 12 games means this year's team is already 2 points per game worse than last year's squad.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #28
Dabo Swinney took over mid-season in 2008 and last year matched Clemson's best win total of the last 20 years (matched three times in the 2000s, though). Fans have longed for one great year instead of constant 6- to 9-win seasons. Recruiting this year was good, giving hope that some day it might happen. But being #3 in the ACC every few seasons isn't necessarily going to stock the cupboard with talent. The Tigers got their share of blue chip recruits this time around, though perhaps the most touted of them, Martaveous Bryant, is headed to Hargrave to get his grades up. We'll see if he makes it back here or if someone else gets ahold of him.

2009 Recap Last season started with a thud, much like 2007 except this one was drawn out over five games. The Tigers beat Middle Tennessee which no one cared about, but it was among their best wins. The also beat Boston College 25-7, another win that was great in retrospect. But they fell by 3 to Georgia Tech, 14-10 to TCU, and by 3 to Maryland. Only the last one was a shame, as Maryland finished 2-10, but sticking close to Tech and TCU is pretty impressive. Looking back it was really Clemson who had the killer early schedule, not Miami. Anyway, they proceeded to win six games in a row before getting overconfident and falling to South Carolina; they then lost to Georgia Tech in another close game that would have put them in a BCS bowl. After making the season a disappointment, then redeeming themselves, and becoming a disappointment again, they salvaged some pride by beating Kentucky in the Music City Bowl 21-13.

Clemson 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	North Texas	82%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Presbyterian	100%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Auburn	43%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	47%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*North Carolina	42%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	69%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	51%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Boston College	54%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	71%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Florida State	46%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	62%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	South Carolina	53%	W
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook This season might be streaky, too. The two games at the beginning are wins—they had better be. While a coach might get away with his team losing to a team from the Sun Belt (see Nick Saban), no coach would survive losing to an 0-11 FCS squad.

The Tigers then travel to Auburn and face Miami and North Carolina; all are probable losses but close enough that winning one of them wouldn't be a surprise. After Maryland—the Tigers should win that game this year—they have two close "wins" over Georgia Tech and Boston College, and should beat N.C. State, too. They should be 6-3 by now. FSU will be tough, but Wake and South Carolina are winnable.

That would make them 8-4. The cumulative odds projection says 7-5. Either one makes sense; there are about five "given" wins and two losses, with the rest being very close. Very, very bad luck could leave the Tigers at 5-7, and the opposite luck would make them 10-2. The most likely outcomes are 8-4 or 7-5. If we had to pick one we'd go with 8-4.

22. Louisiana State Tigers (SEC #6; West #4) Polls: AP #21 USA/Coaches #16

2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to Penn St. 19-17 (Capital One) Poll finish: AP #17 USA #17
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #18 Success: #19 Overall: #20
LSU may have to get used to the role of spoiler in the SEC this year.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #46 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #38
Jordan Jefferson should have a much more productive year in 2010.
• Passing Game: '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #86    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #52
Jordan Jefferson is LSU's savior in some ways. Before he emerged the Tigers were saddled with Jarrett Lee who threw 21 touchdown passes in 2008—seven of them to the opponent. Jefferson was solid last year (2,166 yards, 17 touchdowns, 7 interceptions) but in comparison he was Jesus and Elvis combined. Lee completed 40% in relief so it doesn't appear he's improved much, but he still gives them an experienced backup who can run the offense. The receiver corps has thinned a bit, as only two are back who caught more than 10 passes: Terrence Toliver (#2 with 735 yards) and Rueben Randle (11 receptions 173 yards). Showing promise was tight end Deangelo Peterson, who had 2 TD catches among his 5 catches. But Brandon LaFell (792 yards, 11 TDs), Richard Dickson, and R.J. Jackson are gone and Jefferson's targets are reduced. The offensive line has to improve upon the 37 sacks they allowed last year, and its questionable how much they will. But Jefferson played only half the season in 2008 and missed time at the end of last year; now a junior, he's ready to have a complete year and LSU's passing game should at least be above-average in the FBS.
• Ground Game: '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #67     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #81
Charles Scott didn't have the kind of year he wanted in 2009, grinding out just 542 yards after topping 1,000 the year before. Keiland Williams took over after Scott got hurt and finished #2 with 368. Stevan Ridley had 180 and is the only one of the three to return. Russell Shephard had 277 as a wildcat quarterback; he moves to wide receiver but still could be used in the formation I suppose. And Jefferson had 177 net rushing yards. Ridley will probably start this year but he averaged just 4.0 yards per carry and the offensive line doesn't look much stronger than last year as they lose 4-year starter Ciron Black and 3-year starter Lyle Hitt. Back are senior Joseph Barksdale and juniors Josh Dworaczyk and T-Bob Hebert, who will be a backup this year. Don't look for LSU to run over anyone this year unless a newcomer such as redshirt freshman Michael Ford emerges as a force.

Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #11 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #19
LSU's defense has been carrying the team lately and will still be strong—just not quite as strong.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #21 Adj. Pass Def: #33 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #16 Sacks: #72
The Tiger defensive line features some fantastic names, from returning starter Lazarius Cortez "Pep" Levingston to freshman backup Barkavious Mingo, but talent-wise they lose three starters and will have to prove they can still key a top 25 rushing defense. Only one starter returns at linebacker, too, but it's #1 tackler Kelvin Sheppard (110 tackles). The unit loses the #2 and #3 tacklers, Perry Riley and Harry Coleman. The situation is better in the secondary where Patrick Peterson (13 pass breakups) and Brandon Taylor are back, but overall the defense loses a lot of key talent and will slip a bit from last year.

Kicking Game: Punter Derek Helton (40.0 average, 37.4 net) and kicker Josh Jasper (17 of 20 field goals) are both back for their senior years.
Return Game: Trinton Holliday was the team's primary return man last year, averaging a fantastic 18.1 yards per punt return with one touchdown, and 24.4 per kickoff return. Patrick Peterson has the unenviable task of replacing him as punt returner, while Russell Shephard and Ron Brooks (19.4 average last year) will field kickoffs.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #5
Les Miles remains a polarizing coach. His supporters point to three 11+ win seasons under his watch and gutsy 4th down calls to beat Florida in 2007; his detractors would say he's LSU's Ron Zook (recruits but can't coach as evidenced by the clock-management loss to Ole Miss last year) or Larry Coker (won with previous coach's players but is overseeing the program's decline). One thing he's unquestionably done well at is recruiting. Because defense has been winning games for the Tigers the last several year while the offense has been sluggish, a decline in the defense this year hurts the team. But with the great recruiting classes LSU gets the talent has been replenished annually, preventing too great of a decline. This year's class is among the best in the nation and ranks about #3 in the SEC (behind Florida, but neck-and-neck with Auburn and Alabama). About 10 recruits are consensus blue chips, and LSU has so much incoming talent that, like other schools, they are pushing some of them into the class of '11 to meet scholarship number requirements. Some recruits are pushing back, however; offensive lineman Elliot Porter and linebacker Houston Bates were asked to grayshirt and instead they asked to be released from scholarship. Another recruiting setback occurred when quarterback Zach Lee opted for a baseball contract instead of coming to Baton Rouge.

2009 Recap We had expected LSU's role in the SEC to be diminished last year, but most people didn't and when they started 5-0 they were still being touted as a national title contender. It was clear, though, that the Tigers weren't up to snuff as they were less than dominant in beating Washington 31-23, Vanderbilt 23-9, Mississippi State by 4, and an inferior Georgia squad by 7 under controversial conditions. They tended to play at the level of their opponent; Florida beat them only 13-3, which shows how good LSU's defense was and how bad their offense was. They were 7-1 going into Alabama and again didn't embarrass themselves as the D kept things close, 24-15. The coaching staff blew it against Mississippi, losing 25-23 when they should have kicked a winning field goal but they pulled out an overtime win against Arkansas to go 9-3. In a tight game with Penn State the Tigers fell 19-17 and fell to 9-4, having lost to three top ten teams but defeated only three teams with winning records.

LSU 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	N	North Carolina	46%	L
9/11	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	71%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	58%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	West Virginia	57%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	69%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Florida	38%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	McNeese State	91%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Auburn	43%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	41%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	91%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	58%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Arkansas	34%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook This will be another year where LSU is not a major player in the SEC or on the national scene. The opener against North Carolina (in Atlanta) will tell a lot about both teams' role in the top 25 pecking order, but UNC might be missing several players. The percentage above reflects the loss of some of them; the Tar Heels should still win but it should be counted as a tossup due to the uncertainty.

LSU should win their next four and therefore could be 5-0 at this point, but Florida again looks too tough for the Tigers in the Swamp. They get the first of two non-conference breathers when they face McNeese State. Then they travel to Auburn, and face Alabama, two games they'd be very fortunate to win. The second breather (Sun Belt's ULM) is their reward.

They close with Ole Miss and Arkansas and should be about 7-5. Might they slip under .500? Very doubtful, as the closest of the 7 wins are three home games and all look safe, so even bad luck would leave them 6-6. What is the team's upside? North Carolina could be a win, which would make them 8-4, but unless some of the other SEC teams don't live up to their billing, 9-3 is probably the best the team can hope for. The way recruiting has been going it won't be long before LSU is among the best teams in the nation, but for now it looks like another season of losing to the teams who are actually competing for the conference title.

August 29, 2010 at 12:52 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 28, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #23 to #25: Texas A&M, Washington, Pittsburgh

This installment covers teams from #23 to #25. To see the full list, click here.

23. Texas A&M Aggies (Big Twelve #5; South #4) Polls: AP #40 USA/Coaches #46

2009 Results: Record: 6-7 Bowl: Lost to Georgia 44-20 (Independence) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #57 Success: #71 Overall: #57
The Aggies will still have a strong offense and the defense won't be nearly as much of a liability.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #18 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #14
A&M's powerful offense gets even better.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #18    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #11
Jerrod Johnson came through last year in a big way with 3,579 yards and 30 touchdowns through the air with only 8 interceptions. He's back along with his top three receivers, Uzoma Nwachukwu, Ryan Tannehil (backup QB), and Jeff Fuller (1,885 combined rec. yards, 17 TDs). They lose the next two, starter Howard Morrow and starting tight end Jamie McCoy (816 combined) but three others had over 15 catches in the pass-oriented offense. The only drawback is pass protection which was mediocre last year (29 sacks, #65 in nation adj.) and may be worse this year. Still, Johnson's senior year looks strong.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #23     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #27
The basic story: almost everyone who gained rushing yards is back, but the offensive line loses three starters. The bottom line: roughly the same production as last year in an offense that doesn't emphasize the run. The details: Christine Michael was a revelation as a freshman, gaining 844 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns, surpassing starter Cyrus Gray's 757. #3 was QB Johnson with 506 net (759 gross) and 8 touchdowns. The sack yardage lost will continue to be a problem as the offensive line loses three starters: Michael Shumard, Lee Grimes, and Kevin Matthews, all multi-year starters. Junior Evan Eike and soph Patrick Lewis are back, and senior Matt Allen will move into the starting lineup full time so the line should be fairly close to last year's model. Micheal and Gray will continue to be a solid 1-2 punch.

Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #94 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #55
The defense will be much more experienced this year, and loaded for bear at linebacker.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #92 Adj. Pass Def: #66 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #64 Sacks: #17
The Aggie defense excelled in one area last year—the pass rush—and that was due mostly to one person. Von Miller had a nation-leading 17 sacks last year and he's back to the A&M linebacking corps along with Garrick Williams, Kyle Mangan, and Michael Hodges. Hodges was a freshman last year along with Sean Porter, the team's #8 tackler despite starting just two games. With every key player back and the younger ones much more experienced, the core of the Aggie defense is far stronger. The D-line loses Matt Moss but Lucas Patterson is back along with Eddie Brown and Tony Jerrod-Eddie who combined to handle the other slot. The secondary loses Jordan Pugh but boasts #1 tackler Trent Hunter along with Terrence Frederick and Dustin Harris. Eight of the top nine tacklers return overall.

Kicking Game: Punting was a problem last year with Ken Wood and Ryan Epperson averaging 38.8 and 35.2 yards last season. Both are back and Epperson appears to have won the job. Kicker Randy Bullock made 12 of 19 field goals and returns. Though this is a weak area for the Aggies it should get better, or more accurately shouldn't suck quite as bad, this season.
Return Game: Corner Dustin Harris averaged 6.9 yards per punt return and Cyrus Gray had a touchdown on a kickoff return. Both are back but WR Ryan Swope may handle more kickoffs this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #22
Mike Sherman's 2nd year as head coach brought the team back to a bowl game. He also brought in fired Louisville head coach Steve Kragthorpe as the wide receivers coach. Kragthorpe resigned over the summer, however. This year's recruiting class is a good one, ranking in the top 25 in the nation and the top half of the Big Twelve. It includes three great offensive line prospects: Jake Matthews, Luke Joeckel, and Cedric Ogbuehi, all consensus blue-chip recruits and all from the state of Texas.

2009 Recap The Aggies were one of the more hot and cold teams in the nation last season.They jumped to three wins over poor teams then lost to Arkansas and Oklahoma State (36-31). But after getting crushed by Kansas State 62-14 A&M turned around and beat Texas Tech—a much better team—52-30, and beat Iowa State 35-10. They narrowly lost to Colorado (35-34) but were destroyed 65-10 by Oklahoma. They finished strong, beating Baylor and staying close with Texas before losing 49-39. They made dozens of mistakes and lost in the Independence Bowl to Georgia 44-20.

Texas A&M 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Stephen F. Austin	86%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	67%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Florida International	89%	W
9/30	Thu	@	*Oklahoma State	63%	W
10/9	Sat	N	Arkansas	36%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	55%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Kansas	67%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	46%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	40%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Baylor	61%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	45%	L
11/25	Thu	@	*Texas	44%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The Aggies should kick off this season with three wins again, probably even four as Oklahoma State is in a rebuilding year. Arkansas in Arlington looks like a loss, but they can beat Missouri and Kansas to possibly start 6-1 this year.

The Texas Tech game will be interesting. It's at home and the Aggies beat the Red Raiders 52-30 last year. Right now we favor the Raiders to give some payback but it could be another shootout. They have another tough home assignment against Oklahoma, and after going to Baylor they come home for Nebraska. They finish at Texas, which could be close but leans to the Longhorns.

It looks like a 7-5 year for the Aggies. Six of the wins are pretty certain so bowl eligibility isn't much at risk. The team's chances for a better record depend on how the team plays at home. If they create for themselves a bigger home field edge they solidify the Missouri win and have a chance against Texas Tech and Nebraska, making a 9-3 year a possibility. Though both projections are pretty dead set on exactly seven wins, I'll give them one home upset and an 8-4 record.

24. Washington Huskies (Pac-10 #3) Polls: AP #39 USA/Coaches #36

2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #52 Success: #46 Overall: #52
Jake Locker is back for his senior year; if he stays healthy a bowl bid is almost guaranteed.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #47 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #22
The Locker-led Huskie offense should be one of the better ones in the country in 2010.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #53    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #22
Jake Locker improved his passing in his junior year, completing 58% for 2,800 yards and 21 touchdowns with 11 interceptions. Locker is truly a game-winner for the Huskies; note their 0-12 performance the year he was hurt, with a near-win over BYU while he was still at the helm. He'll have almost all his receivers back, too, including Jermain Kearse, Devin Aguilar, and James Johnson who combined for 1,881 yards and 16 TDs last season. Starting tight end Kavario Middleton (257) was dismissed for a rules violation over the summer, but three others who had over 150 receiving yards return. With only one starter gone the offensive line should offer Locker improved protection this season which is critical as Locker's health is a make-or-break for the Huskies. If he plays the whole season he is one of my favorites for the Heisman (favorite as in he *should* be the winner, and one of our top *could* win candidates) but if he's hurt there is a huge drop off to the backups.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #50     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #31
Chris Polk rushed for 1,113 yards and 5 TDs in 2009 and he returns well-established as Washington's #1 running back. The #2 rusher was QB Locker, who had more touchdowns (7) and 388 yards (577 net). The offensive line loses Ben Assai, a four-year starter, but three full-time starters are back (Ryan Tolar, Cody Habben, and Senio Kelemete) along with part-time starters Drew Shaeffer, Greg Christine, and Nick Wood. By cutting down on losses from sack yardage and providing better blocking, the O-line should pave the way toward an even better year for both Locker and Polk, who should excel in his sophomore frame.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #51 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #45
Two key losses harm the front seven while the secondary improves.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #58 Adj. Pass Def: #83 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #57 Sacks: #34
Alameda Ta'amu and Cameron Elisara are back on the D-line, but the loss of Daniel Te'o-Nesheim (11 sacks) weakens the unit and jeopardizes their fairly lofty QB pressure ranking (#34 with 29 sacks). It's the same situation at linebacker: two starters gone including their top player, Donald Butler (#1 tackler, 14.5 tackles for loss). Mason Foster is back but the front seven are weaker and the rushing defense may suffer. There is less concern in the secondary as Nate Williams and Desmond Trufant return along with half-time starters Quinton Richardson and Adam Long. The pass defense should be much better but the probable decrease in sacks undermines that a bit and the rushing yardage allowed may increase. Defense may still be a problematic area for the Huskies.

Kicking Game: Kicker Eric Folk (18 of 21 field goals) and punter Will Mahan (40.6 yd. average) are both back.
Return Game: Devin Aguilar (8.0 average) is back to field punts again, as are kick returners Quinton Richardson (19.4 ave) and James Johnson (20.3).
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #11
Steve Sarkisian's first year was a good rebound from the Huskies' dismal 0-12 of 2008 under Tye Willingham. But Willingham probably would have done just as well, since getting Jake Locker back was the key. What Sarkisian is clearly doing better at is recruiting. This year's class is nearly in the top ten (#2 in the Pac-10) and will help out the team immediately. One of several consensus blue chip recruits is Josh Shirley, who committed to UCLA but got in trouble there and transferred to UW. He'll be eligible this year. Also in the mix for backup quarterback is Nick Montana, one of Joe's sons (the other, Nick, is a walk-on QB at Notre Dame).

2009 Recap It wasn't long before it was clear 2009 would be better than 2008. Facing LSU at home the Huskies kept it close and with a late score lost only 31-23. They got their first victory since 2007 when they beat Idaho 42-34, a win that was pretty impressive in retrospect. But it was nothing like the next one when the Huskies upended USC 16-13 to stand 2-1. They lost to Stanford, and then to Notre Dame (a bad call on a rumbling 2-point extra point run was key for the Irish), but won a crazy game against Arizona when a pass was intercepted off the receiver's shoe. Another wild finish followed, a loss to Arizona State on a last-second bomb. The Huskies lost three more before whipping Washington State 30-0 and belted Cal 42-10 for good measure, finishing 5-7.

Washington 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Brigham Young	57%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	69%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Nebraska	45%	L
10/2	Sat	@	*Southern Cal	52%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	71%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	57%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Arizona	53%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	51%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Oregon	36%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	61%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*California	52%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*Washington State	79%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Washington has a rough pre-Pac 10 slate with BYU on the road, an improved Syracuse, and Nebraska. They should be 2-1 after that. Then comes USC, the first of four very close games that they could win if they have luck on their side. USC, Arizona, Stanford, and Cal are the pivotal tossup games that decide whether Washington finishes 6-6 or 10-2.

The cumulative projection often comes in handy in these situations, and it foresees a conservative 7-5 year. Really, only Syracuse, ASU, UCLA, and Washington State are solid wins, with BYU and Oregon State fairly solid. Oregon is the only long-shot. That leaves Nebraska and four other games as possible splits, giving the Huskies eight or nine wins in 2010.

But I'm thinking Jake Locker is going to have a spectacular year. Call it a hunch but I think he's going out a winner big time and will guide Washington to a 10-2 season, possibly winning the Heisman Trophy. The Huskies might upset Nebraska early but lose one of the other close "wins." Everything has to go right for this to happen, and if Locker is injured UW might not even improve on last year's record. His year could parallel the season another Jake—Plummer—had with Arizona State in 1996. ASU went from 6-5 to 11-0—a gain of five victories—and their third opponent was Nebraska. Coincidence? I think not.

25. Pittsburgh Panthers (Big East #1) Polls: AP #15 USA/Coaches #15

2009 Results: Record: 10-3 Bowl: Beat UNC 19-17 (Car Care Bowl) Poll finish: AP #15, USA #15
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #19 Success: #15 Overall: #19
The Panthers hope to continue the success of the last few years—and nab a Big East title, too.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #19    '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #32
The passing game may slip a bit but Dion Lewis will keep on truckin'.
• Passing Game    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #73    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #101
Bill Stull finally won over Pitt fans with his fantastic 2009 season, where he completed 65% for 2,633 yards and 21 touchdowns with just 8 interceptions. He departs and will be missed even as former starter Pat Bostick returns from redshirting. The job, though, probably goes to backup Tino Sunseri (2 TDs last year). A big plus: ace receiver John Baldwin (1,111 yards) is back. Baldwin averaged nearly 20 yards per reception and had 8 TD catches. They do lose tight end Dorin Dickerson (10 TDs) and Oderick Turner (combined for 746 yards) and two of the other five who had 10 or more catches. The line allowed just 15 sacks last year but protection might slip as only two starters return. Conclusion: don't expect too much out of Sunseri; Stull was a surprise that might not be repeated.
• Ground Game    '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #17    '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #18
Dion Lewis ran for 1,799 as a true freshman, scoring 17 touchdowns and taking heat off of Stull's passing game. In other words, he was the spark of the offense. Backup Ray Graham had 349 and Henry Hynoski added 107. All are back this year. The offensive line does suffer some losses: 4-year starter Joe Thomas and 2-year starters Robb Houser and John Malecki. Lucas Nix and Jason Pinkston return at the tackle positions but the run blocking won't be up to last year's standards. Don't expect a 2,000 yard season from Lewis though he could approach last year's numbers and is a legitimate Heisman candidate.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #26 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #27
The defensive line continues to stop the run and rush the QB effectively.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #22 Adj. Pass Def: #59 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #21 Sacks: #2
Pitt bottled up the run pretty well but the defense's main claim to fame was the pass rush, where they ranked #2 in the nation (adjusted for opponents) racking up 47 sacks. That figure could slip a bit with the loss of both Gus Mustakas and Mick Williams who combined for 9.5, but with Greg Romeus (8) and Jabal Sheard (5) back there will still be plenty of downed quarterbacks, particularly as backup Myles Caragein (5 sacks) moves into the starting lineup and Brandon Lindsey and Chas Alecxih (8 combined) return. At linebacker they lose Adam Gunn (5 sacks) but Greg Williams is back with #1 tackler Max Gruder. The secondary loses Aaron Berry and Jovani Chappel (10 pass breakups each) though Dom DeCicco and Jarred Holly (3 interceptions each) return. Pitt's defense will still be a run-stopping, quarterback-sacking affair.

Kicking Game: Dan Hutchins was a decent punter (41.1 average, 34.5 net) and placekicker (23 of 29 field goals but just 4 of 9 outside the 40). He's back for 2010.
Return Game: Aaron Smith averaged 6.4 yards per punt return while Cameron Saddler had a great 25.3 yards kickoff return average. Both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #17
Dave Wannstedt finally has the Pitt program in a good place after so many years of wheel-spinning. Recruting has been great through most of his tenure and this season is no exception as the Panthers are #1 in the Big East and top 25 in the nation. The prize recruit was defensive end T.J. Clemmings from Paterson, NJ, with another New Jersey defensive lineman, Bryan Murphy, not far behind. A third consensus blue chip is wide receiver Todd Thomas.

2009 Recap Expectations, as usual, were high for Pitt in the pre-season and they started out 3-0, but when they were upset by North Carolina State 38-31 it looked like it might another year of broken promises. But the Panthers quietly won five in a row, topping Rutgers and USF along the way, and when they won the sixth—over Notre Dame, 27-22—they were 9-1 and everyone was paying attention. Of course they lost the next game, 19-16, to West Virginia, then led undefeated Cincinnati big before falling 45-44. They got some close-game luck in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, beating North Carolina 19-17.

Pitt 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	@	Utah	54%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	New Hampshire	76%	W
9/23	Thu	vs.	Miami (Florida)	46%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	Florida International	87%	W
10/9	Sat	@	Notre Dame	54%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Syracuse	62%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	62%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	78%	W
11/11	Thu	@	*Connecticut	55%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*South Florida	56%	W
11/26	Fri	vs.	*West Virginia	54%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	50%	W
Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The year kicks off with a tough task: go into Utah and come out with a win. It should be close but it looks like Utah may be a bit more banged up from fall camp than the Panthers giving them an added edge. After a win over tough FCS squad New Hampshire they face Miami. This time they're at home but we see them losing. One way or another Pitt should go 2-1 in September.

They get a breather against FIU before facing Notre Dame on the road, another tight game so it's possible that Pitt could be 2-3 at this point but still be a very good team.

The Big East season is easier than Pitt's pre-conference trials; they should open with three wins, get past the next three tough games and face Cincinnati for the Big East crown again. This tossup game falls barely to Pitt right now. Added up that's 11-1 but the odds are against that. The cumulative projection is 7-5 as there are six close wins listed for Pitt and just one close loss. 12-0 is not out of reach but would take a whole lotta luck, while failing to reach bowl eligibility would take extremely bad luck. Anywhere from 8 to 10 wins seems reasonable for this team's caliber. They may or may not improve upon last year's record but have a strong shot at a BCS bowl.

August 28, 2010 at 03:57 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (1)

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #26 to #30: West Virginia, Iowa, Missouri, Penn State, Georgia

This installment covers teams from #26 to #30. To see the full list, click here.

26. West Virginia Mountaineers (Big East #2) Polls: AP #25 USA/Coaches #24(t)

2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to FSU 33-21 (Gator) Poll finish: AP #25, USA #22
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #38 Success: #21 Overall: #34
Coach Bill Stewart has a chance to beat 9 wins this season.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #49 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #46
With Noel Devine back it doesn't matter as much who plays quarterback.
• Passing Game   '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #102    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #102
West Virginia has been a running team for quite some time and last year was no exception. Jarrett Brown had just over 2,000 yards and 11 touchdowns through the air. Freshman Geno Smith was competent (65%) when filling in and should be a good replacement but isn't as much of a runner as the Mountaineers are accustomed to from their QBs. Two of the top three receivers are back with Jock Sanders (688 yards) leading the way while three others who had 10+ receptions return including tight end Tyler Urban. The O-line should offer improved protection to Smith, who might top Brown's numbers but not much more in an offense that is designed for the run.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #19     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #14
Noel Devine is the offense's workhorse, carrying 241 times last year for 1,465 yards (6.1 average). QB Brown rushed for another 466 net (689 gross) yards while fullback Ryan Clarke added 250 and 8 TDs. With Brown gone and Smith at quarterback the rushing yards from that position will decline, but Brown is capable of running and the offensive line should cut down on the sack yards this season. Four full-time starters return to the line—Eric Jobe, Josh Jenkins, Don Barclay, and Joe Madsen—along with their backups as Selvish Capers departs. Behind this experienced line Devine should top 1,500 yards and be one of the many top Heisman candidates.

Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #23 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #13
With 9 starters back a top 25 defense in '09 could be top ten in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #32 Adj. Pass Def: #50 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #29 Sacks: #48
West Virginia's front three is loaded: Julian Miller (9 sacks) and Chris Neild are back, as are Scooter Berry and backup Chris Taylor, who filled in for Berry post-injury. At linebacker the two top tacklers return to the middle of the 3-3-5, Pat Lazear and J.T. Thomas. Four starters return in the secondary led by Robert Sands (5 interceptions) and Brandon Hogan (11 pass breakups). The defense could be better in every area this year as approach top ten in the country in adjusted scoring defense.

Kicking Game: Tyler Bitancurt (13 of 15 field goals) is back for the Mountaineers, while Corey Smith or Greg Pugnetti will replace solid punter Scott Kozlowski (44.4 average).
Return Game: Jock Sanders averaged 8.6 yards per punt return last year while Mark Rogers (22.9) and Tavon Austin (25.1) handled kickoffs. Austin had one return for a touchdown and is back this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #36
Bill Stewart has turned in two 9-4 season after succeeding Rich Rodriguez in Morgantown. Last year's recruiting class was a bit stronger but this one still ranks 3rd in the Big East in our estimation. Among the consensus blue chips are juco defensive end Bruce Irvin from California and wide receiver Ivan McCartney from Florida. Another top-notch receiver, Deon Long, left school however.

2009 Recap Two limpid victories (33-20 and 35-20 over Liberty and East Carolina) were followed by a loss to Auburn to open the 2009 season. But the Mountaineers continued to win, even if ugly, and were 6-1 at one point before losses to South Florida and Cincinnati (24-21) gave them a 7-3 record with Pitt and Rutgers left. They won each by a field goal and carried a 9-3 record into a Gator Bowl that was set up as a sentimental send-off for Bobby Bowden who coached at West Virginia eons ago. Florida State played with emotion and beat the Mountaineers 33-21.

West Virginia 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Coastal Carolina	98%	W
9/10	Fri	@	Marshall	67%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Maryland	65%	W
9/25	Sat	@	LSU	43%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	UNLV	76%	W
10/14	Thu	vs.	*South Florida	61%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	67%	W
10/29	Fri	@	*Connecticut	51%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Cincinnati	55%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Louisville	71%	W
11/26	Fri	@	*Pittsburgh	46%	L
12/4	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	61%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook West Virginia kicks of 2010 with a rich, artery-clogging series of desserts. First comes cupcake Coastal Carolina (5-6 last year in the FCS). They continue with some M&Ms (Marshall and Maryland) and should be 3-0 with ease.

LSU on the road is next, followed by another kind stretch: UNLV, then USF and Syracuse at home. They should be 6-1, just like last year.

The tough games follow. UConn on the road and Cincy at home should be wins but could go either way, while Pitt on the road looks like a loss. Louisville and Rutgers should be wins, making them (if all goes to plan) 10-2 on the year.

The cumulative projection says 8-4, which is equivalent to the Mountaineers losing all their close games (but otherwise not getting upset) and is pretty much the low end of expecations. It would be hard to beat both LSU and Pitt on the road to go undefeated; they'd need surprisingly good quarterback play to make that happen. But 10-2 is a real possibility, maybe even the most likely outcome as we see it right now.

27. Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten #3) Polls: AP #9 USA/Coaches #10

2009 Results: Record: 11-2 Bowl: Beat Georgia Tech 24-14 (Orange) Poll finish: AP #7, USA #7
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #24 Success: #8 Overall: #13
Iowa rode a boderline top 25 team into a top ten finish and could do the same this year.

Offense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #62 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #65
The apparent loss of Brandon Wegher slows the rushing game but QB Ricky Stanzi will continue to lead the team well.
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #56 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #50
Ricky Stanzi wasn't the best quarterback in the country last year but he won games like it. Stanzi had pedestrian numbers—56% completions, 2,417 yards, and 15 interceptions to go with 17 TDs passes—and had a penchant for throwing pick-sixes. But Iowa was 11-0 when he played the whole game and if he can cut down on the INTs he'll be that much more effective. Backup James Vandenburg has big game experience now (almost beat Ohio State) and should be a solid backup. Recevier Derrell Johnson-Koulianos led Iowa last year (750 yards) and if he repeats that will make four seasons in a row. #2 Marvin McNutt (674 yards, 8 TDs) is back but they lose Trey Stross (414) and clutch tight end Tony Moeaki (387). The offensive line is some concern as they allowed 29 sacks last year and return just two starters. Stanzi should still have his best year as a senior but cutting out the interceptions is the key.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #75 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #88
The ground game was really taking shape with everyone back from top gainer Adam Robinson (834 yards) to starting fullback Brett Morse (35 yards) and Jewel Hampton coming back from injury after doing a fine job backing up Shonn Greene in '08. But then #2 rusher Brandon Wegher (641 yards, 8 TDs) left fall camp with no indication as of yet that he will return. Another issue is the offensive line; six players had regular starts last season and just two are back, senior Julian Vandervelde and soph Reilly Reiff. Gone are Brian Bulaga, Rafael Eubanks, Kyle Calloway, and Dace Richardson. Head coach Kirk Ferentz always whips the line into shape, and while it would be nice to have Wegher back the other two sophomore running backs make a fine tandem and Iowa's rushing game normally exceeds expectations.

Defense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #10 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #9
Iowa will have a top ten defense for the third straight season.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #24 Adj. Pass Def: #1 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #1 Sacks: #18
Iowa finished #1 in passing defense when adjusted for opposition in both per-game and per-attempt figures. The defensive line did its part with its four starters registering 27 sacks, and all four are back: Adrian Clayborn (11.5), Broderick Binns (6), Christian Ballard (5) and Karl Klug (4.5). All all seniors save Binns (junior) and the team's top 25 rushing defense should get a further boost. Linebacker Jeremiha Hunter returns though they lose Pat Angerer (#1 tackler w/145) and A.J. Edds (5 interceptions). The secondary will be strong again as Tyler Sash (6 interceptions), Shawn Prater (8 pass breakups), and Brett Greenwood (3 int) all return. In all 12 of the top 15 tacklers are back to a defense that was the real reason Iowa nearly went undefeated last year.

Kicking Game: Iowa had solid punting and placekicking from Ryan Donahue (40.9 average) and Daniel Murray (19 of 26 field goals) and should again this year.
Return Game: Colin Sandeman averaged 9 yards per punt return while fellow receiver DJK (see Passing Game) had one touchdown in 12 kickoff returns inflating his average from around 25 to 31.5 yards per return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #49
Kirk Ferentz has fully pulled out of the rocky terrain Iowa stumbled on from 2005-2007. During that time some suggested Ferentz was on the "hot seat" which was never really true. He was then and still is very highly paid and that led to some of the criticisms. Also, Iowa's recruiting is generally not up to par for a top 25 team, though the Hawkeyes suffer very little attrition compared to many schools that rank above them and many recruits come from less hyped areas of the country. This year's class is a big step up from last season's and is in the middle of the Big Ten pack. Local recruit A.J. Derby could be Iowa's next great quarterback, if the versatile Iowa City native ends up playing that position.

2009 Recap Iowa kicked off the year against in-state FCS foe Northern Iowa, and they looked terrible all game, needing to block a last-second field goal TWICE before winning 17-6. Few took the Hawkeyes very seriously after that until they traveled to Penn State and whipped the Lions 21-10 with defense and special teams. The wins kept piling up, though the Hawks played everybody close: Arkansas State 24-21, Michigan 30-28 (both at home). They had comeback wins against Wisconsin, Michigan State (last play TD pass), and Indiana (from down 14 in the 3rd) and were 9-0 with Northwestern coming in. Stanzi got hurt and Iowa fell 17-10 for their first loss. They went to Ohio State with a freshman backup at QB and lost in overtime 27-24. Ending 10-2, they went to the Orange Bowl as underdogs but manhandled Georgia Tech 24-14 as the defense dominated once again.

Iowa 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Eastern Illinois	85%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Iowa State	70%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Arizona	51%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Ball State	78%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	54%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Michigan	58%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	45%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	60%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Indiana	70%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Northwestern	62%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	42%	L
11/27	Sat	@	*Minnesota	60%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Iowa overachieved in 2009; they were really a borderline top 25 team with an excellent defense. But they played to the level of their competition—usually just above—and that and the defense kept them in every game. The same will probably happen this season, too.

Iowa's first test should come at Arizona, but the Hawks are good enough to win it, as well as the home game against Penn State. Wisconsin might just be too good, but they do get that game at home. The same goes for Ohio State, the only other superior team on their slate. If they can force overtime on the road without Stanzi there's no reason they can't win at home with him.

Add this up and you have 10-2, with the outside chance of an undefeated season, in other words much like last year. To achieve that Stanzi will have to stop giving the other team 6 points every few contests. And they'll have to play above their heads and get lucky a few times again.

The cumulative projection is 7-5, but that's clearly a minimum as there are at least 7 solid wins on the board. I think the Arizona game will determine whether Iowa goes 9-3 or 10-2 this year.

28. Missouri Tigers (Big Twelve #6; North #2) Polls: AP #33 USA/Coaches #37

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Navy 35-13 (Texas Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #46 Success: #56 Overall: #49
Mizzou is a lot better but still a long way from the top teams in the Big Twelve, most of whom they face.

Offense (7.5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #38 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #36
Blaine Gabbert is without top receiver Danario Alexander, but is Derrick Washington gone, too?
• Passing Game '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #14 '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #10
How much will losing Danario Alexander hurt the Missouri passing game? That's the question. With Blaine Gabbert back after a fantastic year—3,593 yards, 24 TDs and just 9 interceptions—will we find out that much of his success was conditioned on the presence of superstar receiver Alexander (113 receptions, 1,781 yards, 14 TDs)? Or will the majority of his catches be spread around to Jerrell Jackson and Wes Kemp (876 yards combined)? Will starting tight end Andrew Jones (43 yards last year, 146 in '08) step up more, along with newer faces? The Tigers lose #2 Jared Perry, too (696 yards), so about 2/3 of receivers' production is gone. Gabbert will be better as a junior and should increase his completion rate above last year's 59%; this alone wouldn't offset Alexander's loss but the offensive line will offer better protection and Gabbert will spread the ball around a lot more than he had to last year.
• Ground Game '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #82 '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #78
Tailback Derrick Washington rushed for 865 yards and 10 touchdowns, triple the yardage of the next runner. De'Vion Moore and Kendial Lawrence each had over 200 as did QB Gabbert, but Washington was the main cog in the Tigers' not-so-emphasized rushing game. With Washington suspended indefinitely and thus his return suddenly questionable basically kicked off the team, the question in this area is, how important is he? As we just mentioned, Missouri is a passing team lately under Gary Pinkel. Washington is clearly the best back but the other two averaged close to his 4.6 yards per carry. The offensive line is going to be very good this year, too: they lose only one starter, and while 3-year starter Kurtis Gregory was important, they return two 2-year starters (Tim Barnes, Elvis Fisher) as well as Austin Wuebbels and Dan Hoch. The increase in ranking seen here is due to a better offensive line, the Tigers returning everyone from the running back corps except Washington. Since he in all likelihood won't play this year, the ranking is lower than it would have been (#67 or so) and production could be flat from last year.

Defense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #54 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #25
A vastly improved secondary and Aldon Smith back on the D-line makes this a top defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #13 Adj. Pass Def: #107 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #43 Sacks: #27
The Tiger defensive line loses two starters, but Dominique Hamilton returns and, most importantly, so does Aldon Smith. Smith led the team with a whopping 11.5 sacks last year. Unfortunately at linebacker they lose #1 tackler Sean Witherspoon (111 tackles, 10 tackles for loss) but #2 Andrew Gachkar and #3 Will Ebner return. In the secondary Jasper Simmons, Carl Gettis, Jarrell Harrison, and Kevin Rutland—all seniors—are back. Missouri gave up a lot of passing yards last year but that's because no one could run on them; teams went to the air out of necessity, and though the Tigers did a decent job (#43 per-play) they were only #107 in per-game stats (adjusted for opponents). All of those figures should improve with the experienced secondary still in place. Overall, the defense returns 8 of its top 9 tacklers.

Kicking Game: Kicker Grant Ressel was as close to perfect as anyone in college football, making all 39 PATs and an incredible 26 of 27 field goals. What were the Lou Groza people thinking? Ressel wasn't even a finalist last year. Winner Kai Forbath (UCLA) missed an extra point, while finalist Leigh Tiffin (Bama) missed FOUR! and Georgia's Balir Walsh missed from inside the 40. It was probably Ressel's lack of attempts from 50+ that hurt him; the Groza people seem to like that, even if you only make 3 of 6 like Forbath. Maybe he'll get more consideration this year if he can repeat his success. Missouri does need a new punter as Jake Harry (42.8 average) moves on; either Matt Grabner or Trey Barrow, both walk-ons, will get the job.
Return Game: Cornerback Carl Gettis returned punts with a 7.1 average, and safety Jasper Simmons had a 22.6 yard average on kickoff returns. Both are back for their senior year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #19
Gary Pinkel has built Missouri into a successful football school as of late, with five straight winning seasons. Recruiting has improved over the years in general and this year in particular is a standout top 25 class. While he didn't get any of the nation's very top recruits there are a half-dozen consensus blue chips in the group including Tyler Gabbert, the younger brother of starting QB Blaine.

2009 Recap Missouri opened with yet another win over Illinois in their neutral-field series, 37-9. They edged Bowling Green just 27-20 and beat Furman and Nevada to stand at an unimpressive 4-0. They dominated Nebraska for three quarters before big plays and a sudden offensive explosion left them 27-12 losers, and they lost to Oklahoma State and Texas in the following weeks. They won four of five at the end (lost to Baylor) due to an easy schedule in that stretch but couldn't stop Navy's running game and lost big in the Texas Bowl.

Missouri 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	N	Illinois	62%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	McNeese State	87%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	San Diego State	74%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	75%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	64%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	44%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	37%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Nebraska	36%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	36%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	67%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Iowa State	63%	W
11/27	Sat	N	*Kansas	66%	W
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook How many players can Missouri have out for the opener and still be heavy favorites over Illinois? Right now four starters will likely be out: RB Derrick Washington (susp.) and WR Jerrell Jackson (inj.) on offense, and LB Will Ebner (susp.) and safety Jarrell Harrison (knee) on defense. Even docking those players it looks like the Tigers should beat the Illini.

All of the above players should work their way back into the lineup over the next few cupcake games before the Big Twelve season starts, with the exception of Washington whose situation is up in the air. The Tigers will be heavy favorites to be 4-0, and to beat Colorado and go 5-0.

Then come four very tough games and Mizzou would be fortunate to win one of them. Followed by three more fairly easy wins and an 8-4 finish. The cumulative projection is pessimistic at 7-5. It's more likely the Tigers get an upset to go 9-3 than are upset themselves, but most of these games seem pretty clear cut so 8-4 is our pick. Even if Washington were to come back the situation doesn't change; Illinois is their "weakest" win and that figure already assumes four starters are gone. Losing Washington for the year just means they have even less chance of beating Texas A&M, but they still look like an 8-4 team.

29. Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten #3) Polls: AP #19 USA/Coaches #14

2009 Results: Record: 11-2 Bowl: Beat LSU 19-17 (Capital One) Poll finish: AP #9, USA #8
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #20 Success: #11 Overall: #15
Penn State will still be a good team but lose key players on both offense and defense.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #48 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #62
With Darryl Clark gone Evan Royster becomes "the man" at Penn State.
• Passing Game    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #40    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #74
Darryll Clark departs after wowing Penn State fans for two exciting years, including last season when he passed for a touch over 3,000 yards and had 24 TD passes. In comparison Kevin Newsome had just 11 attempts as a freshman but he'll take over in the fall and the named starter this fall, true freshman Robert Bolden, had 0 attempts. That's right—for the first time ever, Joe Paterno is starting a freshman at quarterback in game one. He'll have three of the top four receivers back: top duo Derek Moye and Graham Zug combined for 1,385 yards and 13 TDs and Chaz Powell added 366 while departing tight end Andrew Quarless had 536. Expected replacement starter Curtis Drake broke his leg in fall camp and won't be available before the Big Ten season. The O-line was 21st in pass protection with just 17 sacks allowed so that will help Newsome Bolden acclimate, but production will likely sink.
• Ground Game    '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #30     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #34
Evan Royster was the other main offensive star of the last two season and he's back after gaining 1,169 yards, down a bit from '08 but still a hefty 5.7 yards per carry. Stephon Green had 319 with QB Clark 3rd netting 211 (7 TDs). Backup QB Newsome ran for 95 (29 more than his passing yardage) so Clark's loss won't cause a dropoff on the rushing side of the equation. The offensive line should be as strong as it was last year. They lose Dennis Landolt and Ako Poti, but four who started most of the year are back: Stefen Wisniewski, Lou Eliades, Johnnie Troutman and DeOntae Pannell. Call it three or four starters back but it's still a very strong line and production ought to be relatively stable. Royster should have his third 1,000 yard season.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #9 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #14
Still a great defense, but without their linebackers not a top ten defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #9 Adj. Pass Def: #25 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #25 Sacks: #21
The Lion defensive line gets Ollie Ogbu and Jack Crawford (5.5 sacks) back though they lose Jared Odrick (7 sacks). At linebacker the losses are huge, though: Josh Hull (116 tackles), Navorro Bowman (14 tackles for loss), and all-time great Sean Lee (9 tackles for loss, 7 pass breakups). Penn State always has great linebackers and this year's group will be strong but for the purposes of comparison to last year it's a big fall. The secondary is in good shape with Drew Astorino, Nick Sukey (11 pass breakups), and D'Anton Lynn back. They lose four of the top five tacklers but 8 of the next 9 return.

Kicking Game: Collin Wagner (15 of 22 field goals last year) returns while Anthony Fera or Russell Nye should take over for Jeremy Boone (43.3 average but 31.7 net) at punter.
Return Game: Free safety Drew Astorino had a 7.9 yard per return average on punts, while receiver Chaz Powell averaged 23.2 per kickoff return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #13
Joe Paterno finally outlasted Bobby Bowden, coaching alone among the two for the first time since 1969. Many believe this will be his last year. Of course that's been said for the last ten years. Despite the alleged recruiting problems that his advancing age were causing the Lions have done very well lately with back-to-back top 25 classes, this year's ranking #1 in the Big Ten. There are at least 10 consensus blue chips, with two of the best from Stamford, Connecticut: Running back Silas Red and linebacker Khairi Fortt.

2009 Recap Much was expected from last year's team and for the most part they delivered. Their first three opponents scored just 7, 7, and 6 points, but they were Akron, Syracuse, and Temple. Iowa came to town and Penn State led 7-0 after one play but couldn't do anything after that, losing 21-10. They rolled through the rest of the Big Ten before hitting Ohio State and falling 24-7. A poor performance against Indiana caused many pundits to predict they'd fall to Michigan State but they smoked the Spartans 42-14. They took on the SEC's LSU and got a win for the Big Ten, 19-17, in a sloppy-fielded Capital One Bowl.

Penn State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Youngstown State	84%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Alabama	35%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Kent St	71%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Temple	65%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Iowa	46%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	69%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Minnesota	59%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	63%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	67%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Ohio State	35%	L
11/20	Sat	N	*Indiana	72%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	59%	W
Projection Straight up: 9-3 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Three road games will prevent the Lions from having a perfect year. The first one, in game two, is the worst: Alabama (though Ingram might not be with the team). Two easy wins should follow before they travel to Iowa. That game is winnable but considering they couldn't beat the Hawkeyes at home with Darryl Clark they have to be considered road underdogs without him.

Four more (relatively) easy wins follow before Ohio State. Again, the same home-away comparison applies.

Apart from these three likely losses, Penn State has a truckload of just-as-likely wins. The main differences between this year and last year are: 1) No Darryl Clark, 2) No Sean Lee on defense, 3) Iowa and Ohio State are road games instead of home games, and 4) Alabama is added to the schedule replacing Syracuse as the token BCS-conference foe.

The cumulative projection calls for a 7-5 finish but that would require two pretty big upsets. Michigan State could be tough but yet again: Penn State beat them in Lansing, badly, and should still hold the edge in State College. I don't see Minnesota doing it either. 9-3 is where the Lions should finish this year.

30. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC #7; East #3) Polls: AP #23 USA #21

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Tex A&M 44-20 (Independence) Poll finish: AP #33 USA #32
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #28 Success: #23 Overall: #29
An improved offense and great special teams play offset a decline on defense.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #24 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #18
The Bulldogs are old pros at making quarterback changes work; having an experienced O-line helps.
• Passing Game    '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #54    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #52
Quarterback Joe Cox departs after throwing for over 2,500 yards and 24 touchdowns, and backup Logan Gray (42% completions, 0 TDs, 2 int.) didn't exactly inspire confidence in his limited play. Thus freshman Aaron Murray will likely take over this fall, with Gray moving to wide receiver leaving the QB corps to consists of four freshmen. Luckliy there's a lot of talent at receiver, with A.J. Green, Tavarres King, and tight end Orson Charles (over 1,500 yards combined) all back and six out of the seven who had 10+ catches returning. The offensive line allowed just 12 sacks (#7 in the nation, adjusted) and they'll be even better this year. So while the Bulldogs will be starting a freshman he's walking into a good situation and could be just as productive as his predecessor.
• Ground Game    '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #35     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #24
The fleet of Bulldog running backs all return for 2010, from Washaun Ealey's 717 yards to starting fullback Shaun Chapas' 35 yards. In between are Caleb King (594, 7 TDs), Richard Samuel (395), and Branden Smith (208) among others. Samuel, however, moved to linebacker while Smith is a cornerback who may or may not be used as much on the offense. And Ealey will miss some early games (at least one) after driving without a license. But no matter; King can carry the load as long as he stays healthy. In fact, just about anyone should be able to run behind the Bulldog offensive line this year as five starters return: Clint Boling, Cordy Glenn, Ben Jones, Chris Davis, and Josh Davis, all upperclassmen. In addition Trinton Sturdivant who started all of 2007 is back from 2 years of injury. Part-time starter Justin Anderson defects to the defensive line but other than that there are few losses from last year's strong O-line which should lead the running game to higher heights.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #43 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #73
A new 3-4 scheme is used but there are too many holes to fill and Rennie Curran is gone.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #15 Adj. Pass Def: #67 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #46 Sacks: #37
Demarcus Dobbs is lone returner to the new three-man front as Georgia hopes to increase QB pressure while preserving last year's strong rush defense. Justin Anderson moves in from the offensive line while former defensive end Justin Houston (7.5 sacks) joins the linebackers. That group includes Darryl Gamble, part-time starters Marcus Dowton and Akeem Dent and former running back Richard Samuels but Rennie Curran is no longer with them; Curren led the team with 130 tackles last season. The secondary loses Reshad Jones (4 interceptions), Bryan Evans, and Prince Miller, with Brandon Boykin returning. The pass defense—by far the weaker component last year—may get even worse unless the new scheme compensates with a stronger pass rush. The defense appears to be weaker on the line and the secondary while strong at linebacker, but even there they lose their best player.

Kicking Game: Punter Drew Butler had an astounding 48.1 yard punting average (41.9 net) and Blair Walsh made 20 of 22 field goals. This is perhaps the best kicking duo in the nation.
Return Game: Corner Brandon Boykin returned three kickoffs for touchdowns last season. He returns but Prince Miller who averaged a strong 11.9 per punt return is gone, leaving yet another corner, Branden Smith, in charge.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #26
Mark Richt has been at Georgia for quite some time now—he's starting his 10th year, believe it or not. In six of his nine years the Bulldogs have had 10 or more wins. Recruiting here is easy in some way but hard in others—it's hard to keep up with the Joneses (or the Meyers) in the SEC, where even though Richt brings in a top 25-level class, it still sits as about average for the league. The class has about half a dozen consensus blue chips, with the majority on defense and most of them from the state of Georgia like D-back Alex Ogletree of Newnan. One top prospect, defensive end Jalen Fields, didn't qualify but for the most part the Bulldogs seem to have dodged the dreaded DNQ disease with this class.

2009 Recap In some ways Georgia's season ended in the first week with a 24-10 loss to Oklahoma State. Despite losing a top QB and running back (Stafford and Moreno) the Bulldogs had the same lofty expectations as always though we didn't agree, picking them to be 7-5. The loss to the Cowboys confirmed that they wouldn't be a national title player but wins over South Carolina, Arkansas, and Arizona State made them 3-1. To Bulldog faithful, they were screwed against LSU due to a faulty celebration penalty, and lost next week to Tennessee 45-19 because of the fallout. But really they just weren't that good. They fell to Kentucky for their fifth loss but finished strong, beating rival Georgia Tech 30-24 and topping Texas A&M in the Independence Bowl.

Georgia 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	LA-Lafayette	79%	W
9/11	Sat	@	*South Carolina	42%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	35%	L
9/25	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	47%	L
10/2	Sat	@	Colorado	58%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	64%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	72%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Kentucky	53%	W
10/30	Sat	N	*Florida	36%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	99%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Auburn	38%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	Georgia Tech	48%	L
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook This year's team is different in a lot of ways but in terms of quality it's about the same as the 2009 model. Which means that it's going to find the going tough again in conference play.

Non-conference isn't a problem for most of the year. At least two players, WR King and RB Ealey, are gone for Louisiana-Lafayette but that won't matter. They travel to Colorado which will be tougher, but hosting lowly I-AA Idaho State (1-10 last year) in November is a vacation. They close with Georgia Tech, which is close to a toss up despite being at home.

Games 2-4 are all tough, and will be made that much tougher if Ealey is still suspended. It's looking more and more like they could drop all three, but with luck after the Colorado game they could have a winning record and should beat Tennessee and Vanderbilt at home. Kentucky is a probably win, too but Florida and Auburn aren't strong candidates for W's. In all that makes the Bulldogs a pedestrian 6-6, or 7-5 if you go with the cumulative odds given rather than counting game-by-game.

Few of the games are tight, giving a narrow range of where we think the season can go. Winning the close ones will make them 8-4, losing all close games puts them at 5-7. But I think it will stay between the projections given above, one way or another. They might beat Mississippi State and lose to Kentucky, for instance, with Georgia Tech game determining whether they get that 7th win.

August 28, 2010 at 03:53 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 25, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #31 to #35: Mississippi State, Oregon State, Cincinnati, Boston College, Houston

This installment covers teams from #31 to #35. To see the full list, click here.

31. Mississippi State Bulldogs (SEC #8; West #5) Polls: USA/Coaches #49

2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #39 Success: #57 Overall: #40
The Bulldog defense ought to save the day as the offense flounders.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #36 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #59
The Bulldogs won't lament the loss of their starting QB, but Anthony Dixon is another matter.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #108    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #113
To say the least, Mississippi State had quarterback issues in 2009. Tyson Lee passed for fewer than 1,500 yards and had just 4 touchdown throws but a whopping 14 interceptions. Backup Chris Relf never started but had 5 TDs against 3 interceptions, so if he takes over things might run a bit smoother but he only completed 54% of his passes. The Bulldogs lack depth at receiver but three of the top four return including Chad Bumphis (375 yards) and tight end Marcus Green (3 TDs). The O-line should offer good protection this year but don't expect fireworks from Relf.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #6     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #15
The Bulldog offense hitched its wagon to Anthony Dixon last year and he delivered 1,391 yards and 12 touchdowns. Without him they'll need a new star which could be Robert Elliot (#4 last year with 221 yards) or JUCO Vic Ballard. Backup QB Relf is a great runner and averaged 6.6 yards per carry while finishing #2 with 500 yards; if he starts that's a boon for the rushing attack. The offensive line will be sturdy, too; though they lose 4-year guard Craig Jenkins they've got four upperclassmen returning: Seniors J.C. Brignone and Derek Sherrod and juniors Addison Lawrence and Quentin Saulsberry. The Bulldogs will no longer have a top ten rushing attack but it should remain top 25 quality.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #36 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #23
Jamar Chaney is gone but 16 of the top 20 tacklers return.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #23 Adj. Pass Def: #61 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #70 Sacks: #73
Pernell McPhee (5 sacks) is the only full-time starter that returns to the defensive line but several part-timers are back and should keep the rushing defense solid. The big loss is Jamar Chaney at linebacker (#1 tackler) but K.J. Wright and Chris White (#2 and #3 tacklers) are back. The secondary loses Marcus Washington but is loaded with Charles Mitchell (4 int) back along with half-time starters Johnathan Banks (4 int), Zach Smith, Maurice Langston, and Damein Anderson, while Corey Broomfield led the team with 6 interceptions as a freshman. The lagging pass defense should improve a lot and with it the overall unit.

Kicking Game: Punter Heath Hutchins averaged 39.7 yards per punt last year and returns with both placekickers, Sean Brauchle (6 of 9 field goals) and Derek DePasquale (10 of 12).
Return Game: Wide receiver Leon Berry handled the majority of kicks last year, with a 7.7 average on punt returns and 26.7 yards per kickoff including one touchdown return. Chad Bumphis also returned kicks and may be primary return man this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #32
Dan Mullen didn't have much to work with on offense last year other than Dixon, and it may be a while before he has a great passing quarterback which he'd like for his spread option system. The best players from this year's class are linemen: Damien Robinson on offense and Kaleb Eulls on defense, both blue chip recruits. He did sign Dylan Favre, Brett's nephew who is more of a project. Tyler Russell from last year's top 25 recruiting class is a better prospect and will compete for the QB job this season.

2009 Recap Many of the teams that Mississippi State lost to last season had double-digit wins (Georgia Tech, Houston, Florida, Alabama) and the rest (Auburn, LSU, Arkansas) had at least eight. In the second half of the season the Bulldogs managed three impressive wins, beating Middle Tennessee 27-6, Kentucky 31-24, and rival Ole Miss 41-27. But the schedule was murder and they finished 5-7.

Miss St. 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Memphis	82%	W
9/9	Thu	vs.	*Auburn	44%	L
9/18	Sat	@	*LSU	43%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	53%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	Alcorn State	99%	W
10/9	Sat	@	Houston	49%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Florida	33%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	UAB	65%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	59%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Alabama	30%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	35%	L
11/27	Sat	@	*Mississippi	53%	W
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook The pre-SEC schedule is a bit kinder this year. They play another I-AA team (lowly Alcorn State) and Houston on the road, but instead of Georgia Tech and MTSU they have Memphis and UAB. The Bulldogs should be at least 3-1 outside of the SEC and have a shot at Houston (a trial by fire for the new pass defense).

The SEC is another matter. Once again wins are sparse but they could actually beat Georgia at home and should beat Kentucky again. LSU and Mississippi are not out of reach but will be tough on the road.

Thus a repeat of 5-7 could happen but the Bulldogs have a decent chance of being bowl eligible. Four of their wins are pretty solid while three of the losses are seen to be close. With luck or a few upsets they could win 7 overall; the cumulative projection nearly predicts this but rounds down to 6-6. These projections count on the defense stepping up quite a bit, particularly the pass defense. If that doesn't happen the Bulldogs won't be going anywhere and the Old Miss game will have to be their bowl game again.

32. Oregon State Beavers (Pac-10 #4) Polls: AP #24 USA/Coaches #22

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to BYU 44-20 (Las Vegas Bowl) Poll finish: AP #27 USA #27
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #30 Success: #33 Overall: #31
The Beavers are in the wide open Pac 10 race but have a killer pre-conference schedule.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #25 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #26
Despite losing a very good quarterback the Rodgers brothers are back so all is well.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #32    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #46
Sean Canfield was one of the most unheralded great passers in college football last year. While the Rodgers brothers got all the attention Canfield threw for 3,271 yards and 21 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions with a 68% completion rate. Canfield is gone as is Lyle Moevao who started in 2008. Last year's mop-up Ryan Katz, now a sophomore, will take over since his main competition, Virginia transfer Peter Lalich, transferred again. Lucky for him that the Rodgers brothers are back. James led with 1,034 yards and 9 TDs while Jacquizz was third with 522. #2 Damola Adeniji (807) departs but Joe Halahuni (486) means three of the main four pass catchers are back. Also back are sophomore Jordan Bishop, starting tight end Brady Camp, and Darrell Catchings who had 386 yards in '07. The offensive line should offer improved protection as four starters return. Though Katz likely won't match Canfield's efficiency he'll have time to find some of his great targets.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #57     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #38
Quizz Rodgers proved that 2008 was no fluke by rushing for 1,440 yards and an amazing 21 touchdowns in 2009 as a sophomore. Brother James was the 2nd leading rusher with 303 (just 1 TD though) as they averaged 5.3 yards per carry. Jovan Stevenson matched their average and had 137 total but he's out for the season with a shoulder injury. The offensive line loses Gregg Peat but full-time starters Alex Linnenkohl, Grant Johnson, Mike Remmers, and Michael Philipp return along with all five backups. Jacquizz Rodgers could have one of the best rushing totals in the nation this season.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #47 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #41
Two star linebackers are gone but 9 of the next 10 top tacklers return for the Beaver D.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #17 Adj. Pass Def: #63 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #41 Sacks: #75
The Beaver defensive line is set this year with senior starters Brennan Olander and Stephen Paea (3 sacks) back and half-time starters Kevin Frahm and Gabe Miller taking the other slots. At linebacker there is more concern as the defense loses its two top tacklers, Keaton Kristick and David Pa'aluhi. But Dwight Roberson returns and Keith Pankey has fully recovered from his Achilles' heel issue last year. The secondary should be solid with James Dockery, Cameron Collins, and Lance Mitchell (3 int) back.

Kicking Game: Johnny Hecker was an adequate punter last year (40.1 average) while Justin Kahut was a very solid kicker, making 22 of 27 field goals. Both are back though Kahut is still recovering from a summer car accident.
Return Game: James Rodgers excelled at both punt and kickoff returns last year to the tune of 11.6 and 22.3 yards per attempt. He will continue to perform both chores in his senior year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #70
Oregon State's recruiting has been at or near the bottom of the Pac-10 for several years now. There are some good recruits in this year's small class but none are true blue chips. Head coach Mike Riley has said that the only true freshman that will definitely play this season are grayshirts from last season. Riley continues to win with what he's got: Oregon State has had just one losing season in his 9 years here.

2009 Recap Things didn't look great when the Beavers just got past UNLV 23-21, then lost to Cincinnati 28-18. They even kicked off the Pac-10 season with a loss to Arizona. But as it turned out Arizona was a good team and Cincy was a great team, and from 2-2 the Beavers would soon be 8-3 and playing rival Oregon for a spot in the Rose Bowl. They lost 37-33 and for the second time didn't go to Pasedena because of the Ducks.

Oregon State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	TCU	27%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Louisville	75%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Boise State	27%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	67%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Arizona	49%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Washington	43%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*California	55%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*UCLA	51%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	81%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Southern Cal	55%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Stanford	41%	L
12/4	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	38%	L
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook Oregon State has just about the worst possible pre-conference schedule, going on the road to take on both TCU and Boise State. In between they should win at home against Louisville.

The Pac-10 experience for the Beavers will be much the same as it is for most of the league: many close games and an up-in-the-air race.

Arizona State and Washington State will be the cellar teams that OSU can handle, while Cal and USC at home look good with UCLA on the road a possibility. Arizona on the road is just as close. Washington, Stanford, and Oregon (again) look like losses.

But all of the above can be scrambled around. The Beavers should be about 5-4 in conference in some configuration of wins and losses, ranging from 2-7 to 7-2 due to all the close games. That makes them anywhere from 3-9 to 8-4. Both the straight up and cumulative projections give them six wins and that looks about right to me, though there is a lot of leeway either direction.

33. Cincinnati Bearcats (Big East #3) Polls: AP #26 USA/Coaches #26

2009 Results: Record: 12-1 Bowl: Lost to Florida 51-24 (Sugar) Poll finish: AP #8 USA #9
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #16 Success: #4 Overall: #8
Cincinnati won't be as good as last year's dream team but the play of Zach Collaros could have the Bearcats approaching last season's success.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #5 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #12
It might not be top 5 in production without Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard but the offense behind Zach Collaros will still be near the top 10.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #7    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #18
Tony Pike had over 2,500 yards, 29 touchdowns and just 6 interceptions last year but was injured once again and backup Zach Collaros was incredible in relief, completing 75% of his passes for 1,434 yards and a 10:2 TD:int ratio. With Pike gone there is no longer a quarterback controversy. Collaros will be without star receiver Mardy Gilard (1,191 yards, 11 TDs) however, which is a huge loss. But Armon Binns (888 w/11 TDs), D.J. Woods (640) and tight end Ben Guidugli (364) return. Marcus Barnett (over 800 yds. in '07) switches back to receiver full time and two USC transfers—Vidal Hazelton and Brandon Carswell—become eligible this year. The offensive line should continue to provide great protection for the mobile Collaros, who should have well over 3,500 passing yards this season. Though the loss of Gilyard suggest a slip in production, Collaros might be good enough to keep that from happening.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #60     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #54
Isaiah Pead was the Bearcats leading rusher with 806 yards last season and he's back, though Jacob Ramsey started more games but was 2nd with 439. Ramsey is gone but Pead is back and his backup will be John Goebel who was injured most of last year but had over 600 yards in 2008. Another boon for the rushing game is QB Collaros, who averaged six yards per carry (344 net). The offensive line should be excellent again as starters Sam Griffin, Jason Kelce, and Alex Hoffman return. They lose Chris Jurek and Jeff Linkenbach but all the backups return to a line that allowed just 15 sacks last year. The running game will increase dependant upon how emphasized it is in new coach Butch Jones' plans.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #49 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #66
Having 5 starters back on defense isn't ideal, but it's 4 returning starters better than last year.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #48 Adj. Pass Def: #101 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #52 Sacks: #26
The defense returns just one starter to the defensive line, Derek Wolfe (5 sacks). They lose Alex Daniels (8.5 sacks) and Ricardo Matthews (9 tackles for loss) and expand to a 4-man line to boot. Two starting linebackers return, J.K Schaffer (100 tackles) and Walter Stewart, and two are gone including #1 tackler Andre Revels (109 tackles) but they have just three slots to fill. The secondary welcomes back Drew Frey and Dominique Battle. Overall four of the top six tacklers are back but nos. 7 throught 10 are all gone.

Kicking Game: Jacob Rogers was adequate but no superstar as he doubled as punter and placekicker. He averaged a decent 41.6 yards per kick (only 33.7 net) and made 13 of 19 field goals. Patrick O'Donnell will probably take over full time at punter this season.
Return Game: Mardy Gilyard's loss as a receiver is equalled by his loss as a return man. Gilyard returned three kicks for touchdowns—two kickoffs and a punt. Without him Darrin Williams will field more kickoffs; he had a touchdown in just 8 returns last year. Receiver D.J. Woods will replace Gilyard as punt fielder.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #65
Brian Kelly didn't get the most-hyped recruits during his stint here and in the transition year to Butch Jones recruiting dropped a bit, putting Cincy near the bottom of the Big East this round. Wide receiver Dy'Juan Lewis is this class' consensus blue chip and will continue Cincy's recent tradition of great receivers. Jones arrives from Central Michigan where he coached Dan LeFevour the last four years, so he'll feel right at home with Collaros, another prolific, accurate passer who can run the ball extremely well.

2009 Recap Twelve wins in a row and then a loss. That's the nutshell version of Cincinnati's amazing 2009 season. Starting with a blowout of Rutgers—the team that was supposed to be able to run the table on its easy schedule—the Bearcats didn't look back, slipping past Oregon State and Fresno State, whipping South Florida as they ran through the Big East, edging UConn 47-45, West Virginia 24-21, and finally mounting a huge comeback to beat Pitt 45-44. Shut out of the national title game they faced Florida under terrible conditions: Brian Kelly had been hired by Notre Dame and the team (especially Gilyard) was not happy; and Florida was fired up to "say goodbye" to their poor ailing coach Urban Meyer. The Gators won 51-24.

Cincinnati 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Fresno State	56%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Indiana State	99%	W
9/16	Thu	@	North Carolina State	60%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Oklahoma	35%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	74%	W
10/15	Fri	@	*Louisville	68%	W
10/22	Fri	vs.	*South Florida	59%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	65%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*West Virginia	45%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	59%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Connecticut	49%	L
12/4	Sat	vs.	*Pittsburgh	50%	L
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Cincinnati compensates for a big drop in talent with an easy schedule. True, they play Oklahoma (hosting them after traveling there two years ago) but aside from that they should have four wins. The opener at Fresno State is no gimme but the subsequent contest with I-AA Indiana State (1-10) is. N.C. State and Miami (Ohio) should be victims as well.

From there Cincy has likely wins with Louisville, and USF, Syracuse, and Rutgers at home. The last two games are tossups and they might lose both to finish 8-4, but winning one of UConn and Pitt would make them 9-3 on the season, not bad at all.

The cumulative projection sees more doubt in many of these wins and assigns a 7-5 record as the most likely outcome. But that seems like a lower limit given all the solid wins on the chart. In fact with only the Oklahoma game as a "sure" loss, Cincy could manage to go 11-1. Viewed that way, 9-3 seems pretty likely. And if Collaros dodges injury and plays as well as I think he might, then 10-2 or 11-1 isn't so crazy.

34. Boston College Eagles (ACC #7; Atlantic #3) Polls: AP #46 USA/Coaches #40

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to USC 24-13 (Emerald) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #42 Success: #37 Overall: #43
The Eagles improve marginally on offense and the defense should be great.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #64 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #51
Questions remain at quarterback but the running back position is solid.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #99    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #82
Quarterback Dave Shinskie returns after a mediocre 2009 where he edged above 2,000 yards and 15 TDs but had 14 interceptions and completed just 52% of his attempts. Worse, the offense loses top receiver Rich Gunnell (880 yards last year) and #2 Colin Larmond (596 yards) is out for the year with a knee injury. That leaves starting tight end Chris Pantale as the only one of the top four receivers back. Billy Flutie, Doug's son, will likely start this year after catching just 5 passes last year—though 2 were for touchdowns. The good news is that four starters return on the offensive line and should protect the QB even better this year (#25 last season). Shinskie, a sophomore in label only as he is 26 years old, should improve this season but don't expect fireworks.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #61     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #50
The Eagles star last year was Montel Harris, who rushed for 1,457 yards and 14 touchdowns. Though backup Josh Haden is gone and #3 rusher Rolandan Finch had knee surgery and will miss 2010, Harris will be running behind and even better offensive line this season. They lose Matt Tennant but return 3-year starter Anthony Castonzo, Rich Lapham, Thomas Claiborne—all seniors—and Nathan Richman. All five backups return, too, and Harris is in the running to be the nation's leading rusher.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #21 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #11
Mark Herzlich's return is the story of the year.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #46 Adj. Pass Def: #34 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #14 Sacks: #99
Seniors Alex Albright and Damik Scafe return to anchor the 4-man Eagle defensive line. At linebacker they lose Mike McLaughlin but get back Luke Kuechly who had an astronomical 158 tackles (more than twice as many as the #2) and 12 tackles for loss. Half-time starter Mike Morrisey returns, too, but the big news is the comeback of Mark Herzlich who battled bone cancer last year. He's been further hobbled by a fractured foot but should be good to go early in the season. Two starting members of last year's solid secondary—Wes Davis and DeLeon Gause—return. Despite having a defense with a very poor pass rush (18 sacks, #99 adjusted in the nation) the Eagles finished #14 in pass yards yielded per-attempt (adjusted for opposition). They might slip a bit in that category but a stronger front seven should make the defense better overall.

Kicking Game: B.C. will replace excellent kicker Steve Aponavicius (13 of 14 field goals made) with either freshman Nate Freese or punter Ryan Quigley, who averaged 40.8 yards per punt.
Return Game: Rich Gunnell was also primary punt returner, and he averaged 13.7 yards per return with one touchdown. RB Jeff Smith handled the most kickoffs to the tune of 22.1 yards. Montel Harris may take over kickoffs while corner DeLeon Gauss handles punts.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #52
Frank Spaziani took over Boston College under tough circumstances last year after the firing of Jeff Jagodzinski who had 20 wins in just 2 years. The transition recruiting class was poor but this year's is much better. There are solid players though none is among the top blue chip prospects and overall the ranking is still low for the ACC.

2009 Recap Boston College didn't have a winning streak longer than 2 games last year but still finished the regular season 8-4. They didn't lose to any teams with a losing record (6-6 Notre Dame was the worst) and beat only two teams (Florida State and Central Michigan) who had winning records. Matched with USC in the Emerald Bowl they lost 24-13.

Boston College 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Weber State	74%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Kent St	69%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	36%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	56%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	59%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Florida State	39%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	61%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	46%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	56%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Duke	58%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	62%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Syracuse	58%	W
Projection Straight up: 9-3 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The Eagles have a kind pre-ACC schedule, with I-AA Weber State followed by Kent State, Notre Dame at home this year and a final game at Syracuse. That ought to be four wins, three at the least, out of conference.

The ACC is another matter as Virginia Tech at home and FSU on the road look like losses, while Clemson will be tough. But N.C. State and Maryland are probable wins and B.C. might finish with three in a row against Wake, Duke, and Virginia.

That would put them at 9-3, one better than 2009. The cumulative projection rests at 7-5, but not too many of the wins are close games. Notre Dame and Wake Forest, perhaps, but the Clemson game is winnable too. That leaves seven pretty solid wins and two that aren't exactly forecast to be tossups. Thus 9 wins isn't a stretch at all, and 10 wins is probably just as likely as B.C. falling to 7-5 this year.

And this is without expectation of great quarterback play—just slightly less mediocre play. Montel Harris must stay healthy, and the defense has to be as tough as we think it will be. Even though B.C. won't compete for the ACC title they'll have another satisfying winning season.

35. Houston Cougars (C-USA #1; West #1) Polls: AP #30 USA/Coaches #27

2009 Results: Record: 10-4 Bowl: Lost to Air Force 47-20 (Armed Forces) Poll finish: USA #33
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #44 Success: #49 Overall: #45
Houston will continue to win games with offense, and they'll win a lot of them.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #7 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #6
With Heisman Trophy candidate Keenum at the helm the offense will be just as explosive.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #1    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #1
Houston passed for over 6,000 yards in 2009 and 5,671 of it was Case Keenum's doing. Keenum completed 70% of his attempts for 44 touchdowns and a relatively mild 15 interceptions. Backup Cotton Turner did well, too (75%, 3 TD, 0 int) so in case Case pulls a Sam Bradford the Cougar system shouldn't completely fall apart without him. Three returning receivers topped 1,000 yards: James Cleveland (1,214, 14 TDs), Tyron Carrier (7 TDs), and Patrick Edwards (6 TDs). They do lose Charles Sims' and Chaz Rodriguez' combined 1,283 yards but Bryce Beal and Kerrie Johnson (combined 548) can step up. The offensive line gave great protection (18 sacks) especially considering the number of attempts and should be just as good. Keenum could actually top his '09 numbers (with the potential for an outrageous 6,500 yards if the Cougars play 14 games), but even a conservative estimate has him becoming the NCAA's all-time yardage leader.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #93     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #86
The entire Houston running back corps was set to return before Charles Sims was found ineligible. It's a cliché to say they won't miss a step without him, but it's true. It's also true that they would gain a step more if they had him back. Sims had 698 yards and 9 TDs to freshman Bryce Beall's 670. Keenum was the #3 gainer with 158 net yards and WR Carrier next with 125. So it's a bit of a dropoff between the running backs from Sims (5.3 ave.) and Beall (4.8) to Chris Wilson (105 yds, 4.4 ave.). The offensive line should be a bit stronger as three starters—Roy Watts, Jordan Shoemaker, and Chris Thompson—return. While the Cougars lose Carl Barnett and Jarve Dean, they get defensive line starter Isaiah Thompson so it's similar to having four starters back. Houston didn't depend on the run last year and won't this year, but they're in pretty decent shape despite losing Sims.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #96 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #98
Last year's poor defensive showing might be repeated in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #117 Adj. Pass Def: #84 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #100 Sacks: #85
Houston's Achilles' heel last year was their rushing defense; Donald Buckram easily smashing his way through the defensive line last year in UTEP's win over the Cougars was a sight to behold. Things might not get any better this year as they lose Tyrell Graham (7 sacks) and Zeke Riser while Isaiah Thompson moves to the offensive line. That leaves David Hunter alone among last year's starters, but switching to a 3-4 defense leaves fewer gaps to fill. And the linebacker corps is solid: Marcus McGraw (#1 tackler w/156) is back with Phillip Steward, and '08 starter Matt Nicholson returns for his senior year after redshirting '09. They lose #2 tackler C.J. Cavness (143 tackles) and they do have 4 slots to fill. The secondary had its troubles in 2009 and loses Brandon Brinkley (12 pass breakups) but Nick Saenz (114 tackles) and Jamal Robinson (5 interceptions) return. In all there's not much improvement here, though they shouldn't be any worse.

Kicking Game: Houston used multiple kickers in 2009. Matt Hogan was a perfect 12 of 12 on field goals but missed 5 extra points, while Jordan Mannisto hit just 6 of 10 field goals but 24 of 26 PATs. Both are back so they can take their pick again but Hogan appears to have the job and Mannisto will take over as punter from Chase Turner, who averaged 42.6 yards per punt and departs.
Return Game: Receiver Tyron Carrier was one of the most dangerous return men in the country last year; he averaged a solid 10.4 yards per punt return and 29.0 per kickoff with a whopping four touchdown returns. He's back to create more excitement this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #41
Kevin Sumlin picked right up where Art Briles left off with 18 wins in two seasons. This year's recruiting class is the best in the Conference USA. One of his best recruits is Matangi Tonga, who played at BYU before leaving on a mission and returning to junior college. He'll be a big help on the defensive line.

2009 Recap When Houston was good, they were really good because of their offense. When they weren't good it was usually because of the defense. Upsetting Oklahoma State and Texas Tech back-to-back put Houston on the college football map last season. But the very next game their inability to stop the run killed them as they fell to lowly UTEP 58-41. Another winning streak (5 games) commenced which included exciting shootouts with Southern Miss (50-43) and Tulsa (46-45), both last-minute comeback wins. They lost to Central Florida, though, killing their top 25 buzz, and the season ended on down notes as East Carolina beat them in the C-USA title game and Air Force ran all over them in the Armed Forces Bowl as interceptions plagued Keenum in both contests.

Houston 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Texas State	84%	W
9/10	Fri	vs.	*UTEP	81%	W
9/18	Sat	@	UCLA	52%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	95%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	Mississippi State	51%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Rice	70%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*SMU	61%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Memphis	74%	W
11/5	Fri	vs.	*Central Florida	58%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	66%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	54%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Texas Tech	34%	L
Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook Houston has an even better team this year with an easier schedule, at least at the beginning. Three of their first four are gimmes, and that includes UTEP whom they should pummel at home. UCLA and Mississippi State should be close but the Cougars can win them.

After that the C-USA offers little resistance and Houston should win five in a row rather easily, with one last tough game at Southern Miss. Their final game—Texas Tech on the road—is where their dreams of going undefeated will likely come to and end. As Houston gets revenge at home against Texas-El Paso, so does Texas Tech get revenge on the Cougars.

Of course the dream of going undefeated will probably end long before that. It's possible that the 11-1 projection comes true, but with Houston's defense remaining the same liability that it was last year they're bound to have a slip-up or lose one or more of the closer games listed, and the cumulative projection of 8-4 reflects this. I think either UCLA, Mississippi State, or Southern Miss (another revenge scenario) will beat the Cougars who should still finish a solid 10-2 before the C-USA title game. Since UCLA will be hobbled with injuries early on and Houston didn't lose at home last year, a 10- or 11-game winning streak isn't out of the question, but without a solid defense they'll fall eventually.

August 25, 2010 at 05:56 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #36 to #40: USC, California, Connecticut, Arizona, Utah

This installment covers teams from #36 to #40. To see the full list, click here.

36. Southern Cal Trojans (Pac-10 #5) Polls: AP #14 USA/Coaches: not elig.

2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Beat Boston Coll. 24-13 (Emerald) Poll finish: AP #22 USA #20
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #27 Success: #14 Overall: #24
USC could suffer a hangover from last season and all the subsequent drama.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #43 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #52
This year will be a test of USC's vaunted depth at various positions.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #78    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #77
Matt Barkley took the reigns as a true freshman last year and did a good job—for a true freshman. By USC standards his 15 TDs and 14 interceptions weren't acceptable and he certainly didn't deserve the ridiculous Heisman talk that came from a few prominent announcers. But 2,735 yards was a good start that he'll build on. If he falters or is injured the Trojans have Mitch Mustain as a grade A fallback plan. Last year's backup Aaron Corp transferred and top receivers Damian Williams (1,010 yards) and Anthony McCoy (457) are also gone, leaving Ronald Johnson (378) and fullback Stanley Havili (298) the leading returners. Though USC always restocks with receivers, the offensive line will be down a peg from the solid protection they gave Barkley last year. Surprisingly we're not forecasting much gain in Barkley's sophomore year.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #18     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #39
Only Joe McKnight lived up to my prediction of three USC 1,000 yard rushers and he only made it by 14 yards. Staphon Johnson had a terrible weightlifting accident that knocked him out for the season after just a few games and finished with 157, and C.J. Gable ended with only 102. Allen Bradford picked up the slack with 668 and he returns with Gable. Fullback Havili had 138 but might be in the doghouse with coach Lane Kiffin after attacking cornerback T.J. Bryant in camp and backup D.J. Shoemate transferred. The offensive line situation isn't ideal as three starters leave: 3-year starter Jeff Byers and 2-year starters Charles Brown and Alex Parsons. Tyron Smith is back with half-time-plus starters Kristopher O'Dowd and Butch Lewis. There is still great talent at running back and Bradford should have a great year but overall production may lag greatly. Interestingly junior Marc Tyler was named the starter over Bradford for the opener.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #18 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #32
Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has his work cut out for him in trying to get the defense back up to USC standards
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #50 Adj. Pass Def: #42 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #12 Sacks: #20
The Trojan D-line suffers a few setbacks beyond the loss of Everson Griffen (8 sacks): Christian Tupou tore his ACL in the spring, and backup Malik Jackson transferred. Wes Horton and Jurrell Casey (4.5 sacks) return with new starter Nick Perry (8 sacks) who could miss the first few games with a bum ankle. A strong linebacking corps should help shore up the rushing defense, as Malcolm Smith, Michael Morgan, and Chris Galippo all return, though they lose depth with the transfer of Jarvis Jones and Jordan Campbell. The secondary is in shambles as all four starters depart, including of course Taylor Mays (#1 tackler last year) as well as Will Harris (4 int.), Josh Pinkard, and Kevin Thomas who combined for 24 pass breakups. Freshman Byron Moore was slated to start but he, like several others, transferred.

Kicking Game: Punter Jacob Harfman (39.8 average) is back but placekicker Jordan Congdon (12 of 16 field goals) is not. Harfman may take on both roles; if not, Joe Houston will be the new kicker.
Return Game: Damian Williams was USC's most dynamic returnman in '09, taking two punts back all the way (14.2 average). Receiver Ronald Johnson will take over on punts. Johnson assisted C.J. Gable in handling kickoffs last season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #10
A lot has happened in the last year. Coach Pete Carroll moved on to Seattle, just in time for the Reggie Bush scandal came to a head with sanctions announced for USC. As a result the university said they would return Bush's Heisman Trophy and running backs coach Todd McNair was fired. As Carroll's replacement the university hired unproven Lane Kiffin away from Tennessee at a ludicrous salary. Kiffin brings a dream team of assistants with him including dad Monte as defensive coordinator, but he ruffled feathers by hiring Kennedy Pola away from the Tennessee Titans as offensive coordinator and now faces a lawsuit.

Due to the sanctions several Trojans have jumped ship. On offense D.J. Shoemate left for Connecticut and Travon Patterson went to Colorado. On defense, linebackers Jordan Campbell and Jarvis Jones, defensive end Malik Jackson, and safety Byron Moore left. Several high-profile recruits from the class of '10 left as well, the biggest among them offensive lineman Seantrel Henderson, the top recruit in the nation who went to Miami. Blue chips Glen Stanley (linebacker) and Marquis Jackson (defensive end) also transferred. Before these defections the recruiting class was near the very top; now it's borderline top 10. They still have consensus top 100 players Kyle Prater and Robert Woods (both receivers) and Dillon Baxter (running back).

All of this upheaval might be causing some internal strife, too, as the fall camp rumble between fullback Stanley Havili and cornerback T.J. Bryant demonstrates. USC—like Miami before them—had a swaggering "us against the world" attitude that held the team together. Now that could be unraveling. Can Kiffin provide the leadership to prevent a downward spiral?

2009 Recap After their win at Ohio State it looked like USC was down a bit from 2008 but still powerful. That illusion was shattered by their loss at the hands of Washington, 0-12 the year before. Though the Trojans won four straight to start 6-1 they couldn't pull away from Notre Dame (34-27) and their defense looked shabby against Oregon State (42-36). Then came the first of several bombs. Oregon beat them 47-20. Stanford topped that at 55-21 in Pasedena. Arizona beat them for the first time since 2000. At 8-4 they played in the Emerald Bowl but beat Boston College 24-13.

USC 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	@	Hawaii	69%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Virginia	62%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Minnesota	56%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Washington State	74%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Washington	48%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Stanford	40%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*California	53%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	37%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	64%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Arizona	48%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Oregon State	45%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	56%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*UCLA	50%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-6 Cumulative: 7-6

2010 Outlook Which way will USC go is the big question. It's possible that they could win 11 out of their 13 games this year. It's also possible for them to have a losing year as bad as 5-8.

There are only 5 or 6 solid wins on the schedule, but only two games—Stanford and Oregon—that are highly probable losses. Every other game could go either way, from Washington to California, Arizona, Oregon State, and UCLA. The latter could be USC's "bowl game" as they can't go to one this year,

USC should start 4-0 and beating Washington at home would make them 5-0. They might lose two of the next three but every game after that is either a win or a tossup.

Picking game by game with the lowered value we've assigned to the Trojans they would finish just 7-6, which is what the cumulative projection also asserts. But with five or six solid wins (counting one of Minnesota and Notre Dame, and perhaps both) they should be expected to finish with at least 8 victories.

The difference between this year's USC and previous years is that it's not hard to look at the schedule and see a lot of possible losses. Before any loss would have to be a big upset; after last year that's no longer true.

37. California Golden Bears (Pac-10 #6) Polls: USA/Coaches #42

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Utah 37-27 (Poinsettia) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #51 Success: #35 Overall: #48
Another year, another winning season for Jeff Tedford and Cal.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #41 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #30
Kevin Riley and Shane Vereen provide the Bears with offensive consistency.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #51    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #31
Last year Kevin Riley finally had the floor to himself and did well, passing for 2,850 yards and 18 TDs with 8 interceptions. Still not terribly accurate (55%) there is still much room for improvement in his senior year. Once again the offensive line allowed a lot of sacks (31) ranking 82nd in the nation in QB protection. That should be remedied to a great extent as four starters return, and four of the top five receivers return including Marvin Jones (#1 with 651 yards), Anthony Miller, and tight end Jeremy Ross. All signs point to an excellent Cal passing game in '10.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #37     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #40
Jahvid Best was slowed by injury and then went out for the year after diving over the top of a pile and landing on his head against Oregon State. Backup Shane Vereen did a great job and finished with 952 yards to Best's 867. Both had 12 touchdowns. Vereen returns along with Covaughn DeBoskie-Johnson who added 211. On the O-line Mike Tepper departs but returnees Chris Guarnero, Justin Cheadle, and Mitchell Schwartz started all 13 games and Matt Summers-Gavin started most. With a better offensive line production might not be down much as Vereen did very well as featured running back.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #57 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #60
The troubled Cal secondary may remain weak while the rushing defense stays tough.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #27 Adj. Pass Def: #116 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #94 Sacks: #42
Seniors Cameron Jordan (6 sacks) and Derrick Hill are back on the defensive line but Tyson Alualu (7.5 sacks) is gone. Two of the four starting linebackers return, Mike Mohamed (#1 tacker with 112) and D.J. Holt. The secondary loses three starters including Syd'Quan Thompson (10 pass breakups) but Josh Hill and Sean Catthouse both finished the year as starters and are back. The defense would seem to have the same relative strengths and weaknesses as last season and thought Mohamed returns five of the next six tacklers are gone.

Kicking Game: Punter Brian Anger (41.5 average) returns as do both kickers Cal used last year, Vince D'Amato (7 of 12 FG) and Giorgio Tavecchio (8 of 12). As for who will start, nobody knows from game to game.
Return Game: Receiver Jeremy Ross returned a punt for a touchdown and that juiced his average to a crazy 21.3 yards. Shane Vereen returned most kickoffs for a 23.0 average.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #46
Jeff Tedford has been consistently successful at Cal with winning seasons every year. Some are starting to question whether he's lost the coaching "zeitgeist" since two 10-win seasons in the mid-2000s. Once known as a quarterback guru his latest projects have had mixed results. But it's usually just when these questions are asked that a positive answer comes. It might not be this year but Tedford will have Cal back in the national title hunt at some point. Recruiting this year was subpar, like last year low for the Pac-10. Losing top recruit Chris Martin didn't help matters. Their other best-of-the-best recruit is safety Keenan Allen who should help the secondary immediately.

2009 Recap Like every Pac-10 team Cal had its ups and downs in 2009 but Cal had more than most. A 52-13 win over Maryland had some thinking Cal was a national title contender, but as we had predicted the reality was the Terrapins were Terrible. Beating Eastern Washington 59-7 should have fooled no one, and Minnesota played them closer than expected, 35-21. Still it was a shock when Oregon demolished them 42-3, and after USC had its shot (30-3) Cal had burst like a stock market bubble. They recovered to win five of their next six including back-to-back wins over Arizona and Stanford that raised hopes, but Washington gave them their third beatdown of the season 42-10. Overconfidence was a problem that reared its head many times during the season and players admitted it was a factor against Washington. So it was no surprise that, after taking a 14-0 lead on Utah, players were already dancing on the sidelines. Nor was it a surprise that Utah won, 37-27.

California 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	UC Davis	83%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Colorado	61%	W
9/17	Fri	@	Nevada	55%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Arizona	48%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	57%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Southern Cal	47%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	65%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Oregon State	45%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Washington State	73%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	36%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	45%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Washington	47%	L
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The Pac-10 will be filled with parity again in 2010. With nearly every Pac-10 game close, the teams that lose the close games will suffer, and it looks like Cal might lose a lot of close ones.

They should start 3-0 and beat UCLA, ASU, and Washington State pretty easily. But five other Pac-10 games are close losses. This puts the Bears 6-6; due to the many close losses their cumulative projection actually comes out better at 7-5.

There is a big positive to this in that Cal's upside is an 11-1 season (only Oregon looks like a "sure" loss). Even if they split the close games that's 8 or 9 wins, approximately what Cal fans have become accustomed to over recent years.

I think the cumulative projection is essentially a lower limit for the team. Three of the close games are on the road; if they win the two home games in addition to their six "designated" wins that puts them at 8-4, which is what I expect.

38. Connecticut Huskies (Big East #4) Polls: AP #31 USA/Coaches #33

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat S. Carolina 20-7 (Pappajohn's) Poll finish: AP #35, USA #36
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #31 Success: #39 Overall: #32
UConn's season could be great or terrible depending on which way the wind blows.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #21 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #26
One of the two main running backs returns, and maybe only one of two quarterbacks?
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #60    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #55
Zach Fraser, or Cody Endres? That was the question all off-season, as in "Who should be UConn's quarterback in the fall?" Fraser started last season and his play was spotty until he was injured. Cody Endres took over and did very well—1,354 yards, 6 TDs, 4 interceptions, and a 64% completion rate. But he was injured, too; Fraser came back and played much better, finishing with 1,461 yards, 10 TDs and 9 interceptions. Overall Endres seemed to be the better player, as Fraser completed just 53% of his passes. But Endres may have made the point moot as he was suspended along with offensive line starter Erik Kuraczea for unannounced reasons. Speaking of the O-line, they were #15 in the country in adjusted sacks allowed and should be even better this season, though losing Kuraczea would diminish that. Two of the three top receivers are gone: Marcus Easley who had 893 yards and 8 touchdowns, and Brad Kanuch. Five return who had more than 110 receiving yards including Kashif Moore, Isaiah Moore, and tight end Ryan Griffin. Despite all the confusion the passing game should make moderate progress in Frazer's senior year and Endres could very well be back.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #24     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #35
Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon formed a power duo at running back for UConn, rushing for 1,188 and 1,093 yards respectively while each scoring 14 touchdowns. For all intents and purposed they were the Huskies' rushing game, as no one else had more than 5 carries. Dixon is gone but Todman returns to carry most of the load himself, though USC transfer D.J. Shoemate is eligible immediately. The offensive line was great last year and much of it returns intact: Moe Petrus, Zach Hurd, and Mike Ryan are back with half-time starter Mathieu Olivier and (maybe) Eric Kuraczea. The only major losses are Mike Hurt (a 4-year starter) and, again, maybe Kuraczea. Production will drop with the loss of a 1,000-yard rusher, but they've got a spare and things will be alright.

Defense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #55 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #35
Key players are gone but the bulk of talent returns to the defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #63 Adj. Pass Def: #97 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #69 Sacks: #44
The defensive line got a gift but it was taken away. Starter Lindsey Witten departed along with his 11.5 sacks (1/3 of the team's total) so linebacker Greg Lloyd moved in to fill the gap. Unfortunately he injured a knee this summer and will redshirt was planning on redshirting before making an unexpected recovery. Therefore the line is heavy with talent as three more starters—Jesse Joseph, Kendall Reyes, and Twyon Martin—return. Look for the team's rushing defense ranking to soar though the team's sack totals decline. At linebacker Lloyd's two co-starters, Lawrence Wilson (#1 with 140 tackles; 5 sacks) and Scott Lutrus, are back. The secondary's biggest loss occurred mid-season when Jasper Howard was killed. Starters Robert McClain and Robert Vaughn (9 interceptions between them) move on leaving two sophomores, Jerome Junior and Blidi Wreh-Wilson in charge. None of the units is in trouble but they lose their sack and interception leaders; the defensive line should be very solid.

Kicking Game: Dave Taggert returns after making 14 of 23 field goals last season. Punter Desi Cullen (42.8 average) departs, and will be replaced by freshman Chad Cristen.
Return Game: UConn had three kick return touchdowns last year, two on kickoffs and one on a punt. Running backs Robbie Frey and Jordan Todman each took one back, averaging a fantastic 29.5 and 25.3 yards per return respectively. Departing D-back Robert McClain averaged 12.6 yards per return on punts after taking over for Jasper Howard last season. Gary Wilburn will be the main punt returner this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #89
Randy Edsall continues to develop the program he's raised from I-A infancy. Recruiting hasn't been great the last few years but Edsall built the program on lesser names. Opinions on the current class are wide ranging so there are few consensus stars. Overall the class ranks last in the Big East. We'll watch as Edsall brings out the potential in its players over the next several years.

2009 Recap Connecticut was just a few points per game away from being undefeated last season. Three more against North Carolina, four more against Pitt, five each against West Virginia and Rutgers, and three more against Cincinnati and they would have been 12-0. It could be the same story this season.

UConn 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Michigan	52%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Texas Southern	99%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Temple	54%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	73%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	Vanderbilt	69%	W
10/8	Fri	@	*Rutgers	51%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Louisville	67%	W
10/29	Fri	vs.	*West Virginia	49%	L
11/11	Thu	vs.	*Pittsburgh	48%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Syracuse	57%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Cincinnati	51%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*South Florida	51%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Like last year, just a small boost could put UConn over the top this year to have a season like Cincinnati did last year. Every one of their "losses" on the board at left is a close game and many of their wins are narrow, too.

Rutgers, West Virginia, Pitt, Cincinnati, and USF could go either way. If that sounds familiar it's because they lost narrowly to four of those five teams last season. This time they could go 3-2 instead.

Several wins are close games, too: Michigan, Temple, and Syracuse. So UConn's record should fall somewhere between 4-8 and 12-0. Only Texas Southern, Buffalo, and Vanderbilt appear to be "safe" for them.

Game by game, this adds up to a 10-2 record. Accumulate the odds and it comes out to a less fantastic 7-5. Thus we'll say UConn will go about 8-4 or 9-3—but their standard deviation has a much wider range than most teams.

39. Arizona Wildcats (Pac-10 #7) Polls: AP #35 USA/Coaches #29

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Nebraska 33-0 (Holiday) Poll finish: AP #35 USA #35
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #33 Success: #20 Overall: #30
Yet another member of the "parity party" in the Pac-10 conference.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #29 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #20
Arizona's offense returns many key players and becomes top 25 quality.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #47    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #30
Nick Foles took over early last season and fan complaints that "we have no quarterback!" were quickly silenced. Foles completed a respectable 63% for 2,486 yards and 19 TDs against 9 interceptions. Matt Scott started the early games hitting just 57% with 1 TD and 3 ints. Leading receiver Juron Criner (582 yards) returns with #3 David Roberts but #2 Terrell Turner is gone and #4 Delashaun Dean was suspended and transferred. Four others who had over 100 receiving yards are back including starting tight end A.J. Simmons. The offensive line should continue to do an excellent job protecting Foles—they finished #9 in adjusted sacks allowed with just 9 on the year. Foles should have a strong junior year.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #33     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #30
Keola Antolin led the Wildcats with 637 yards while Nic Grigsby was 2nd with 567. Grigsby missed several games but still had a 7.2 per-carry average (to Antolin's 5.6). Backup QB Matt Scott was impressive as a runner with 309 and a 7.5 average. Greg Nwoko added 273. All are back and if Grigsby is healthy he should recapture his 2008 form (1,153 yards). The offensive line is in good shape with Colin Baxter, Vaughn Dotsy, and Adam Grant back and half-time starter Conan Amituanai moving into the lineup as Mike Diaz and Herman Hall depart. The Wildcats make only a small ranking move but there's actually a pretty big jump in projected yardage.

Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #38 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #86
The defense is deep but loses it's top players including all three starting linebackers.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #28 Adj. Pass Def: #43 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #22 Sacks: #14
The Wildcat rushing defense was strong last year and with two starters back should still be good. They excelled at quarterback pressure chiefly because of Ricky Elmore (10.5 sacks) who returns and Earl Mitchell (6.5 sacks) who does not. Brooks Reed is back for his senior year as well. The defense's problem is at linebacker where all three starters are lost including #2 tackler Xavier Kelly. The secondary was solid last season and Trevin Wade (5 interceptions) and Robert Golden return but they lose #1 tackler Devin Ross (12 pass breakups). Almost all of the second string returns but the Wildcats lose their top four tacklers.

Kicking Game: Kicker Alex Zendejas (17 of 22 field goals) and punter Keenan Crier (41.5 average) are both back.
Return Game: Receiver William "Bug" Wright jacked up his punt return average to 17.5 with a touchdown return, as did Travis Cobb with his kickoff average (25.4). Both are back to do it again for the Wildcats.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #34
Mike Stoops has finally gotten some level of acceptance from Arizona fans after back-to-back 8-5 seasons. Before that there was grumbling every time the team looked promising and faded down the stretch. 2008 was a make or break season and Stoops finally delivered but it was unsatisfying. Last season ended much the same but there were bigger moments such as the USC win. Recruiting has been better lately, too, with this class ranking 7th in the Pac-10. Though one top recruit, receiver Dexter Ransom, transferred to Utah the Wildcats picked up cornerback Shaq Richardson from UCLA after he got in trouble there.

2009 Recap The Wildcats beat Central Michigan in the opener 19-7 and that win looked better as the season commenced. They went into Iowa with Scott still at QB and lost 27-17. Foles took over against Oregon State and led them to a 37-32 win, but against Washington a deflected ball bounced off his shoe and was intercepted giving the Huskies an amazing fluke win. The 'Cats beat Stanford and were 6-2 before losing to Cal 24-16. They took Oregon into double overtime, losing a heartbreaker than left the ZonaZoo ringing the field in anticipation of a win. But all was forgiven when Arizona beat rival Arizona State and USC in back-to-back games. Though they were crushed by Nebraska 33-0 the season was a winner.

Arizona 2010 schedule & forecast
9/3	Fri	@	Toledo	78%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Citadel	85%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Iowa	49%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	*California	52%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	51%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Washington State	74%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Washington	47%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*UCLA	50%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Stanford	39%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Southern Cal	52%	W
11/26	Fri	@	*Oregon	30%	L
12/2	Thu	vs.	*Arizona State	65%	W
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook This season looks like a winner, too, and like many Pac-10 teams Arizona could have a great year if the ball bounces their way.

Only four games look like solid wins, but only two are solid losses. Split the difference on the remainder and you have 7-5, which matches the cumulative projection.

We give Arizona wins over Cal, Oregon State, and USC in addition to the expected Toledo, Citadel, Washington State, and ASU wins. UCLA is a complete tossup with Iowa and Washington close. Arizona has the potential to go 10-2.

Given how the team has performed over the years and how bad their luck has been it's hard to imagine them winning all their close games. Unless you believe they are "due" for some massive amounts of good fortune, since they'd been relatively cursed in recent years.

Assuming that luck is independent of previous luck, the 'Cats should be a solid 7-5 team this year. You can play with the wins and losses—beat Iowa and lose to Cal? Lose to Oregon State but beat UCLA? beat Washington, lose to USC? etc.—but the end result should gravitate toward a seven win season.

40. Utah Utes (Mountain West #2) Polls: AP #28 USA/Coaches #24(t)

2009 Results: Record: 10-3 Bowl: Beat Cal 37-27 (Poinsettia) Poll finish: AP #18 USA #18
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #41 Success: #24 Overall: #38
The Utes will again have an excellent season under Kyle Whittingham.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #44 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #27
With two solid quarterbacks and and every runner back the Ute offense looks up.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #44    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #34
Statistically speaking there wasn't much difference between Terrance Cain and Jordan Wynn at quarterback. They combined for 3,000 yards in equal proportion to the games they started and each had about 2 TDs for each interception he threw. Cain led in completion rate 64% to 58% and unlike Wynn is a running threat. Regardless, it was Cain who was pulled despite the team's 6-1 record and replaced with freshman Wynn. The intangibles were with Wynn as he led the offense better and he established himself as the starter for 2010. He'll be without three of the top four receivers including leader David Reed (1,188 yards) but Jereme Brooks (696) is back as is starting tight end Kedrick Moeai who had 4 catches, two of them for touchdowns. The O-line (#44 in pass protection last year) should take another step up and Wynn will have a stronger year. Plus the Utes can be safe in the knowledge that there is a very capable backup in reserve should he be needed.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #54     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #36
Other than Eddie Wide (1,069 yards, 12 TDs) the Utes didn't have any big ground gainers, but they had a variety of them. Fullback-sized Matt Asiata had 330 in 4 games; QB Cain was next with 318 (421 gross); all-name candidates Sauson Shakerin and Shaky Smithson had 198 and 99. All are back, though Smithson moves to receiver. The offensive line loses 4-year starter Zane Beadles but Zane Taylor, Caleb Schlauderlaff, Tony Bergstrom, and Tevita Stevens are back and overall the run blocking could be better and Wide and co. will amp up their yardage. While Cain won't see nearly as much time, Asiata will be much more productive with a full season, his sixth.

Defense (3 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #32 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #72
Heavy losses among the starters outweight most of the 2nd and 3rd string returning.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #52 Adj. Pass Def: #18 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #20 Sacks: #55
The Utes lose Kenape Eliapo and Koa Misi (5 sacks) from the D-line while Derrick Shelby and Sealver Siliga return with part-time starter Dave Kruger. Shelby tore his ACL last year but is close to 100% now. The rushing defense may suffer as all three linebackers are gone including their top two tacklers Stevenson Sylvester and Mike Wright. The secondary was excellent last year as, despite a mediocre pass rush, Utah excelled in both per-game and per-attempt adjusted yards. With only Brandon Burton (10 pass breakups) back and Robert Johnson's 6 interceptions gone they won't be in the top 25 in those categories anymore. In all the top four tacklers are gone and both the rushing and passing defense will get worse.

Kicking Game: Utah had a stellar kicking game with punter Sean Sellwood (42.9 average) and placekicker Joe Phillips, who made 20 out of 22 field goals. Amazingly these two did a great job of replacing Louie Sakoda, and both return for 2010.
Return Game: Shaky Smithson participated on both the punt and kickoff fielding teams with a 9.5 average in the former and 24.7 in the latter. He and the rest of the return team...return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #48
Kyle Whittingham followed Urban Meyer as head coach here and has done an excellent job, even duplicating Meyer's 2004 feat of an undefeated season. This year they're second again in the Mountain West in recruiting, though a distant 2nd to BYU. He got one of their top '10 recruits via Arizona as WR Dexter Cullen transferred and will be eligible this season. They've lost two other top recruits, however: RB Princeton Collins to academics, and QB Tyler Shreve whose scholarship was revoked after he bizarrely attacked his baseball coach.

2009 Recap Looking back at Utah's season there were really no upsets. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat (Utah State, San Jose State, Louisville, Colorado State, UNLV, Wyoming, New Mexico, SDSU), lost to the high-ranked teams (Oregon, TCU, BYU), and edged some good teams (Air Force, California). If they had played Oregon (17-24) and BYU (23-26 OT) at home instead of on the road the season could have been even better, though they were perhaps fortunate to face Air Force and Wyoming at home.

Utah 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Pittsburgh	46%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	*UNLV	71%	W
9/18	Sat	@	*New Mexico	83%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	90%	W
10/9	Sat	@	Iowa State	59%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Wyoming	61%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	69%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Air Force	53%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*TCU	29%	L
11/13	Sat	@	Notre Dame	48%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*San Diego State	64%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Brigham Young	56%	W
Projection Straight up: 9-3 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The Utes kick off the season by hosting Pitt, a very important game for both teams. Win it and Utah could very well open the year 7-0, setting up a huge showdown with TCU, whom they also get at home.

Notre Dame is another pivotal game and after that the Utes should beat San Diego State as well as BYU at home. Adding up the wins and losses Utah could be 9-3 once again, fitting for a team that is nearly the same strength as last season.

Like last year it could be better if they win a couple of key close games. Beat Pitt and Notre Dame and Utah is looking at 11-1. Conversely, lose to Air Force and BYU and they fall to 7-5, which matches the cumulative projection.

In this case the cumulative projection likely forms the worst-case scenario. With so many easy games on the schedule Utah should have no trouble reaching 8 wins and should finish with 9 or 10. I don't see them beating TCU, however, even at home and probably won't enter that game undefeated; I sense that if they do beat Pitt they'll fall to Air Force.

August 25, 2010 at 12:40 AM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 24, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #41 to #45: Notre Dame, Michigan State, UCLA, Kentucky, Mississippi

This installment covers teams from #41 to #45. To see the full list, click here.

41. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Independent #1) Polls: AP #32 USA/Coaches #34

2009 Results: Record: 6-6 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #40 Success: #54 Overall: #41
The Brian Kelly era starts at Notre Dame with little change in team quality but more success.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #33 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #70
The Irish have a new offense with new faces at QB, WR, and head coach.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #8    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #55
Notre Dame loses quarterback Jimmy Clausen and receiver Golden Tate. That should be enough of a summary of the Irish passing game and the challenges it faces in '10, but we'll go a bit further. Clausen provided 3,722 yards of offense and threw 28 touchdown passes vs. just 4 interceptions. Tate hauled in 93 receptions for 1,496 yards and 15 TDs. The quarterback situation isn't bad, with backup Dwayne Crist the front-runner to take over. And most of the rest of the receiving corps is there including Michael Floyd (795 yards, 9 TDs) and tight end Kyle Rudolph (364) back along with four other players who had over 100 receiving yards. But starting a new system with a new quarterback and an offensive line that may give up more than last year's 25 sacks is not an ideal situation. Brian Kelly will work his magic but it might take a year.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #77     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #71
The running backs are in a lot better shape. Leading rusher Armando Allen (695 yards) returns with co-starter Robert Hughes (416). Departing WR Tate was third with 186 and #4 Theo Riddick (160) moves to wide receiver. The offensive line is a concern, as three starters depart (4-year starter Sam Young, 3-year starter Eric Olsen, and 2-year starter Paul Duncan) while Chris Stewart and Trevor Robinson return with Dan Wenger who started full-time in '08. Kelly doesn't emphasize the run much so a token amount of improvement could be accurate.

Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #45 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #34
The Irish should have a rock-solid rushing defense and better pass defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #47 Adj. Pass Def: #102 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #90 Sacks: #56
Notre Dame switches to a three-man front and has a starter in each slot: Kapron Lewis-Moore, Ian Williams, and Ethan Johnson. Backing them in the 4-man corps are returning starters Brian Smith, Manti T'eo, and Darius Fleming (9 tackles for loss). With six starters among the front seven, Notre Dame's rushing defense should be very solid this year and the pass rush improved. The passing defense was a weak area last season; while the loss of Kyle McCarthy (#1 tackler w/101, 5 int.) hurts and they may grab fewer interceptions, overall the unit should improve as Harrison Smith and Robert Blanton return with half-time starters Gary Gray and Darrin Walls. In all 11 of the top 13 tacklers return.

Kicking Game: Ben Turk (38.2 average) shared punting duties with Eric Maust (35.8) who was denied a 5th year of eligibility so Turk will take over full-time. David Ruffer made 5 of 5 field goals when subbing for Nick Tausch (14 of 17) but Tausch appears to have his job back.
Return Game: Another time the Irish will miss Golden Tate is on punt returns. Tate averaged 14.2 per attempt and had a touchdown return. Starting running back Allen will take over this year. Theo Riddick (RB turned WR) will again handle kickoff returns after averaging 22.9 yards last year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #24
The biggest off-season coaching move was, of course, Brian Kelly's move to Notre Dame. After suffering through the last three years of Charlie Weis' premature contract extension and decided schematic advantage the Irish picked up the hottest coach of the day in a move reminiscent of Florida landing Urban Meyer. This season's recruiting class is about the same as Weis' previous one and most are Weis recruits but Kelly did a good job of keeping them in the fold. Four recruits are consensus blue chips: Defensive tackle Louis Nix, receiver Tai-ler Jones, offensive lineman Christian Lombard, and tight end Alex Welsh. Another blue chip recruit, Matt James from Cincinnati, died tragically in a Spring Break accident. While there were no super-blue chips or consensus 5-star recruits in the group, Notre Dame is already full of the most talent that Kelly has ever coaches as he moved from Division II Grand Valley State to Central Michigan to Cincinnati. This is also the first place with a big-time college football tradition, but then again Urban Meyer made the transition seamlessly.

2009 Recap 2009 was supposed to be the big year after a horrible 3-9 '07 and somewhat disappointing stepping-stone 7-6 in '08. It got off to a good start with a 35-0 beatdown of Nevada, then went sour with a 38-34 loss at Michigan. Still, hope was intact and the Irish won three straight close games over Michigan State, Purdue, and Washington. Around this time it was clear the Irish wouldn't be dominant, as none of those teams was a national power and Notre Dame could easily have been 1-4. They hung tough with USC for the first time since 2005 but lost 34-27, which was encouraging, and wins over Boston College and Washington State put the Irish at 6-2. Then it all fell apart with another loss to Navy, the second in 40-some years as well as the 2nd in 3 years. Pitt beat them by 5, UConn beat them in double overtime, and Stanford beat them by 7 points. Another touchdown one way or another and Notre Dame could have been 12-0, or they could have been 2-10.

Notre Dame 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Purdue	66%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Michigan	58%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Michigan State	48%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	Stanford	43%	L
10/2	Sat	@	Boston College	44%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	Pittsburgh	46%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	74%	W
10/23	Sat	N	Navy	55%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	63%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	Utah	52%	W
11/20	Sat	@	Army	60%	W
11/27	Sat	@	Southern Cal	44%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook This year—like last year—there is no game that is out of reach of the Irish. They should be competitive in their toughest games.

Their key stretch starts with Michigan State. They should be 2-0 at this point, and the road game against the Spartans is followed by Stanford, Boston College, and Pitt, all tough games that they'll be expected to lose in close contests. If they can win two of those they'll be in great shape, but it's very possible to win all of them.

After that comes the easy part of the schedule, four games they'll be expected to win. Two of them (Navy and Utah) should be close. They finish with USC on the road, and they even have a reasonable chance of winning that one.

If Brian Kelly is a miracle worker the Irish could go 12-0 like his last Cincinnati team. Both projections call for 7 wins or nearly so, but I think they might exceed that. Five wins on the board are pretty solid, and the other seven games are close. Even if they go 3-4 on those that's eight wins. An 8-4 season wouldn't be a miracle but it's only Kelly's first year. It took him three seasons at Cincy to have a 12-0 team; Notre Dame will have to wait until 2012 for their national title.

42. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten #5) Polls: USA/Coaches #40

2009 Results: Record: 6-7 Bowl: Lost to Texas Tech 41-31 (Alamo) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #54 Success: #61 Overall: #54
Good recruiting over the last two years gives MSU a boost.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #32 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #36
Not much change in the Spartan offense either way.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #22    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #25
Kirk Cousins had a strong year statistically (2,680 yards, 19 TDs, 9 int) but still made some big mistakes like the overthrow that would have beaten Notre Dame. Keith Nichol got some quality backup time in (764 yards, 7 TDs, 3 int) last year but he's moving to wide receiver. Leading receiver Blair White (990 yards, 9 TDs) is gone but the next six down the line return including B.J. Cunningham (641 yards), Mark Dell, deep threat Keshawn Martin, and starting tight end Charlie Gannt. The offensive line was fantastic at QB protection last year, #4 in the nation (adjusted) with just 14 sacks allowed, but they'll be weaker this year. Overall the passing game will still be strong but I wonder if moving Nichol is a good idea, in case Cousins is re-injured.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #68     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #73
Larry Caper and Edwin Baker, both true freshmen, led the Spartans in rushing with 468 and 427 yards each, while Baker's average (5.0) was better. WR Martin was third with a 12.2 yard average in 18 attempts. The offensive line won't be as sturdy as last year as three starters depart. Joel Nitchman, Rocco Cironi, and Brendon Moss leave while D.J. Young and Joel Foreman return. The freshmen become sophomores but they'll find the going a little rougher, and MSU hasn't emphasized the run lately.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #67 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #68
The Spartan defense also seems to tread water for the most part.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #39 Adj. Pass Def: #90 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #68 Sacks: #28
Two starters, Colin Neely and Jerel Worthy (4.5 sacks), return to the 4-man defensive line. At linebacker, the overwhelming #1 tackler returns: Greg Jones had 154 tackles and 9 sacks. Eric Gordon was #2 and returns as well. The secondary loses two starters but Chris L Rucker (not to be confused with Chris D. Rucker, also on the team) is back with half-time starters Marcus Hyde and Trenton Robinson. Overall they lose quite a few starters but with Jones back they won't be any less effective.

Kicking Game: Punter Aaron Bates (41.6 average) is back but placekicker Brett Swenson (19 of 22 field goals) has to be replaced. Freshman Kevin Muma will do his best to fill Swenson's shoes, but it's a tough task.
Return Game: In addition to running plays and long receptions, Keshawn Martin also returned punts and kickoffs, averaging 7.4 yards on the former and 28.9 on the latter, with one touchdown return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #25
Mark Dantonio's recruiting classes have been borderline top 25 for the last two seasons, which makes for a strong batch of incoming talent this year either true or redshirt freshmen. It's the main reason the team moves up in our rankings from last season, since the offense and defense don't improve. The obvious top recruit this year is consensus 5-star William Gholston, a 6' 6" 250 lb. defensive end.

2009 Recap The Spartans showed promise but their season was blighted early on by some heartbreaking losses, such as when Central Michigan made a crazy last-minute comeback and got a 2nd field goal attempt when MSU jumped offsides on a miss. Then at Notre Dame Cousins overthrew a wide open Larry Caper which would have won the game. Their own miracle comeback attempt at Wisconsin failed and the Spartans were 1-3 with the losses by a total of 13 points. They beat Michigan in overtime which was their proudest moment of the season. When Iowa came in MSU was 4-3 but a last-play Iowa touchdown sank the Spartans. They finished 6-6 and after a slew of players (mostly receivers) were suspended for their bowl game they still fought hard but lost to Texas Tech 41-31 in the Alamo Bowl.

Michigan St. 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	74%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	75%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	52%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	N. Colorado	87%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	39%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Michigan	51%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	62%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Northwestern	55%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Iowa	39%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	59%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	63%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Penn State	41%	L
Projection Straight up: 9-3 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook What a difference a schedule makes. Not on the road until game six and with only three real pitfalls—Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State—the Spartans could very well go 9-3 and on the board at left they're favored to do just that.

The Spartans had better be at least 3-1 after their first four games—all at home—against Western Michigan, Florida Atlantic (in Detroit technically, but come on), Notre Dame, and Northern Colorado.

They have two difficult challenges against Wisconsin and Michigan, and with UM on the road this could be a loss as well. Illinois and Northwestern should be victims too. At this point they could be 7-1, or at worst should be 5-3.

They should win 2 of the last four as well, meaning they ought to be anywhere from 7-5 (as the cumulative projection indicates) to 9-3. I don't doubt they can start 4-1 but playing their first road game at Michigan will be tough. I'll go with 8-4, the rest of the season going by the script.

43. UCLA Bruins (Pac-10 #8)

2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Beat Temple 30-21 (EagleBank Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #50 Success: #51 Overall: #51
With the offense and defense stagnant, special teams and recruiting make UCLA better this year.

Offense (5.5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #83 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #81
For the 2nd straight year the offensive line falls apart in camp.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #61    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #69
Kevin Prince is back for his sophomore year and while he's dinged up weeks before the season starts he should be ready to go in game one (worst case, game two). Prince had 2,050 passing yards and 8 TDs last year, along with 8 interceptions. Injuries plagued him all year and if he ever gets healthy he could have a good year. The two top wide receivers (Nelson Rosario and Taylor Embree) return after combining for 1,331 yards in '09. The next four pass catchers are gone but Colorado transfer Josh Smith comes in to help. The offensive line...well, read about it below. It was going to be a strength for the team, and still won't be bad, but last year's pre-season bad luck has struck again. All in all the Bruin passing attack will be about the same.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #80     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #87
This year's offensive line, as of spring, boasted four returning starters, everyone except Xavier Su'a-Filo who left for a Mormon mission. The linemen were determined to make a statement with their play. But three starters have been lost since then for some or all of the season: Kai Maiava broke his ankle and will be out the majority of the year; Mike Harris was suspended for the opener; and Jeff Baca got a double-whammy, being declared ineligible *and* suffering a leg injury that is healing slowly. Baca appealed but remained ineligible and backup Stanley Hasiak will redshirt due to his own academic problems while freshman backup Nik Abele had to retire due to neck problems. That still leaves Harris and Eddie Williams back for most of the year; Micah Kia is back from redshirting and Darius Savage has been a starter before, too. It won't be the way they wanted, but the line will be effective. In terms of running backs, the top two—Johnathan Franklin (566 yards) and Derrick Coleman (244) are back. #3 Chane Moline is gone and #5 Milton Knox transferred, while #4 was QB Prince. Coach Rick Neuheisel has been working with Norm Chow to implement "the pistol" offense to juice the rushing attack, but they've got their work cut out for them.

Defense (4.5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #19 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #36
Big losses in the front seven hobble the Bruin defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #42 Adj. Pass Def: #31 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #42 Sacks: #52
The Bruins had an okay rushing defense in 2009 but things could get worse this year. Three of four starters were gone from the defensive line, including Brian Price—who had 7.5 sacks and an additional 16.5 tackles for loss—and Korey Bosworth who had 12.5 tackles for loss. Worse, lone returning starter Datone Jones caught "UCLA offensive lineman disease" and broke his foot and will miss about half the year. At linebacker it doesn't get much better as they lose their two top tacklers, Reggie Carter and Kyle Bosworth. #3 Akeem Ayers (6 sacks) does return though to hold down the fort during September as the only returning starter in the front seven. The secondary is relatively golden. Though Alterraun Verner (5 interceptions) is gone, Tony Dye, Sheldon Price, and national interceptions leader Rahim Moore (10 int!) are all back. Look for teams to try to run on the Bruins a little more, and pass a bit less.

Kicking Game: The Bruins have a fantastic kicking game and it should only get better. Punter Jeff Locke averaged 43.6 yards per punt and placekicker Kai Forbath hit an astounding 28 of 31 field goals (all misses were outside the 50). Both return; Forbath is a senior, Locke a sophomore.
Return Game: Wide receiver Terrence Austin handled both kick return chores last year with a healthy 24.1 average on kickoffs and 9.2 on punts. He's gone but Josh Smith, one of the better return man in the country at Colorado in 2008 joins the squad. Smith averaged over 25 yards per kickoff and 10 per punt, and had one kickoff touchdown return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #14
Rick Neuheisel brought in a top ten class last year and this one was just about as good until it hit a few snags, resulting in the dismissal of recruits Paul Richardson, Joshua Shirley, and Shaquille Richardson. Paul R and Shirley were consensus blue chips and transferred to Colorado and Washington respectively while Shaq R went to Arizona. Another blue chip, corner Marlon Pollard, left the team as well. That still left nearly a dozen blue chip recruits led by superstar defensive end Owamagbe Odighizuwa. In fact the team's projected improvement this year is largely due to the last two years' recruiting classes; the Bruin offense and defense remain the same or decline, but the new talent infused into the team will lift them.

2009 Recap UCLA began 2009 with a 3-0 run, then hit the skids and lost five in a row (all conference games), and recovered to beat the three fellow non-contenders Washington, Washington State, and Arizona State. They lost to USC but qualified for a bowl game where they stunk up the place against Temple in the first half before rallying for a win.

UCLA 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Kansas State	53%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	41%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Houston	48%	L
9/25	Sat	@	Texas	33%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	77%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*California	43%	L
10/21	Thu	@	*Oregon	27%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	50%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Oregon State	48%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Washington	39%	L
11/26	Fri	@	*Arizona State	57%	W
12/4	Sat	vs.	*Southern Cal	51%	W
Projection Straight up: 4-8 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook If not for all the offensive line losses and players out for the first month or so of the season, UCLA might have been favored to edge Houston. Now, however, it's looking like a loss and a 1-3 start is likely with 0-4 not out of the question if Prince or other key players miss the opener.

The Pac-10 season doesn't look promising as most of the teams in the league are better than the Bruins again this year. Arizona is a tossup, while Arizona State and yes, even USC at home look like wins, though very close. Oregon State could be a make-up victim if UCLA gets upset somewhere else.

That puts the Bruins at 4-8 or 5-7, while the cumulative projection thinks 6-6 is more likely. At best they could win perhaps 8 games, at worst they could probably lose 10.

I'm going to say that the Bruins will have 5 wins going into the game against USC. If they win, they're bowl eligible. Lose, they stay home. By that time if the offensive line has adjusted to all the changes and the hot new recruits have gotten their feet wet they can get the win. But USC can't go to a bowl game and will also be fired up to make that game their substitute bowl.

44. Kentucky Wildcats (SEC #10; East #4)

2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Lost to Clemson 21-13 (Music City) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #37 Success: #52 Overall: #39
The team summary...

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #35 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #37
A fractured offensive line prevents the offense from making significant gains.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #109    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #98
Kentucky played quarterback shuffle last year, using four players extensively: Mike Hartline (806 yards, 6 TDs 7 int), Morgan Newton (706, 6:3), Will Fidler (186 yds., departs), and Randall Cobb in the wildcat formation. The fall camp battle is still on between Hartline, Newton, and redshirt freshman Ryan Mossakowski. Cobb was the leading receiver with 447 yards and he returns with #2 Chris Matthews (354). They lost probable starter Gene McCaskill (#4 receiver) this summer. Last year's meager results were fashioned with an offensive line that allowed just 17 sacks; with protection worse next year (only one starter returns) upward progress in the passing game may be stunted.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #15     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #23
Derrick Locke was the main cog in Kentucky's surprisingly strong rushing attack, which ranked 21st in raw numbers but faced a number of great rushing defenses. Locke ran for 970 yards and 6 TDs while Cobb rushed for 573 mostly out of the wildcat and had 10 touchdowns. They lose two of the next three 200+ yard rushers and will be running behind a much weaker offensive line. They lose Zipp Duncan, Jorge Gonzalez, Christian Johnson, and Justin Jeffries, a total of 8 years of starting experience. Stuart Hines is back along with four part-time starters from '09 and '08 so they can cobble together a strong group, but it won't be like last year's O-line and rushing figures may fall.

Defense (5.5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #40 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #67
Losses at linebacker and in the secondary cause a drop in the defense's ranking.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #86 Adj. Pass Def: #17 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #38 Sacks: #113
Three starters return to the defensive line: DeQuin Evans (6 sacks), Ricky Lumpkin, and Taylor Windham, hoping to shore up the rushing defense and meager pass rush (16 sacks last year). At linebacker they lose Micah Johnson (#1 tackler with 105) and Sam Maxwell (6 interceptions), only returning Danny Trevathan who starts when UK doesn't line up in a 4-2-5. The secondary is a strong point but there are issues this year. They lose not only Trevor Lindley and Calvin Harrison, but corner Paul Warford is ineligible for the 2nd time in three years. Randall Burden and Winston Guy are back but the pass defense will slip.

Kicking Game: Ryan Tydlacka returns after punting for a neat 40.0 yard average, but Lones Seiber departs after making 11 of 16 field goals in his final season with the Wildcats. Either Tydlacka or Joe Mansour will try to replace Kentucky's all-time scoring leader.
Return Game: In addition to being a receiver, running back, and quarterback, Randall Cobb returned punts and kickoffs, averaging 12.8 per punt (with one touchdown return) and 26.5 per kickoff. RB Derrick Locke also returned a kickoff for a touchdown and had a 27.8 average. The return unit is a definite strength for the Wildcats.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #44
After trying for years but never getting the breakthrough season he wanted to have at Kentucky Rich Brooks retired last year. Few things are tougher than coaching football at a basketball school. Joker Phillips was the offensive coordinator at UK so there was no real interruption in recruiting. Although this year's class ranks well nationally, within the SEC it's one of the poorest, though attrition tends to even that out. Only a few '10 recruits so far have failed to qualify for the 'Cats.

2009 Recap When they weren't playing against other SEC teams the Wildcats did pretty well last year. They blanked Miami of Ohio (MAC) 42-0 and edged Big East's Louisville. Then came losses to Florida, Alabama, and South Carolina. They beat Auburn and ULM (Sun) before losing to Mississippi State. They beat Eastern Kentucky (MAC), Vanderbilt and Georgia before losing to Tennessee to finish 6-6. Paired with Clemson in the Music City Bowl, the Tigers (ACC) gave them their first out-of-conference loss.

Kentucky 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Louisville	63%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	76%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Akron	75%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*Florida	27%	L
10/2	Sat	@	*Mississippi	41%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	38%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	41%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	46%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	41%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	89%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	66%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Tennessee	52%	W
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The Wildcats again schedule out-of-conference cupcakes to offset the rigors of their SEC slate. Starting with Louisville, a legit in-state foe whom they play on the road, they then play Western Kentucky and Akron, and later take on I-AA Charleston Southern. They should win all four of those with ease.

The SEC contests will be tougher and some won't be pretty. Florida, however, is the only game they don't really stand a chance in. Mississippi on the road is followed by three home games (Auburn, South Carolina, and Georgia) and Mississippi State. They're underdogs according to us in all five of those but none is completely out of reach.

Vanderbilt and Tennessee should be wins. The latter is questionable as it's on the road. But if everything goes to plan Kentucky will win three, lose six, then win three more to go 6-6. Due to the reasonable shot they have in those five mid-season games the cumulative projection actually rounds up to 7-5, and it's easy to imagine them winning one of the five for sure. But it's also easy to see them losing at Tennessee, so maybe the 6-6 projection is our "official" one.

45. Mississippi Rebels (SEC #9; West #6)

2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Beat Oklahoma St. 21-7 (Cotton) Poll finish: AP #41 USA #30
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #17 Success: #25 Overall: #22
Having Jeremiah Masoli eligible helps would have helped but it looks like he has to sit a year [update: now he's eligible again].

Offense (3 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #28 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #84
With most of Ole Miss' offensive talent gone, Masoli can only help halt the decline [note ratings reflect team w/o Masoli]
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #58    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #114
With two-year starter Jevon Snead (2,632 yards, 20 TDs, 20 int) departing Ole Miss was ready to hand the reigns to Nathan Stanley (48% completions in mop-up duty) and have freshman Raymond Cotton as backup. When Cotton transferred they were in a bind. Previously Houston Nutt had shown no interest in ex-Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli, but he changed his tune and now Masoli is a Rebel, but he'll probably have to sit a year as the NCAA decided to close the "grad student loophole" on him. His 15:6 TD:int ratio compares favorably to Snead's 20:20 from last season but he wasn't a prolific passer (2,147 yards) and the whole offense would have to be changed to accommodate him. Now it appears that they'll have to go back to Plan A and Stanley. They lose ace receiver Shay Hodge (1,135 yards, 8 TDs) and Dexter McCluster (520) while Pat Patterson was dismissed, leaving just two of the top five (Markeith Summers and RB Brandon Bolden). The offensive line has to be reassembled too, so QB protection won't be as effective as last year. It looks like Nutt is going to use both Stanley and Masoli in a two-QB system.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #21     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #57
Dexter McCluster was just a wide receiver at the beginning of the year but became Mississippi's leading rusher by the end with 1,169 yards and 8 touchdowns (6.5 average). Brandon Bolden took a back seat in the 2nd half of the year and finished with 614 (4.8 average). McCluster is gone but Bolden might have been second fiddle again to Masoli, who had 668 yards net with the Ducks last year, but instead he'll be more important the ever. The offensive line might not make things conducive to a strong rushing game though. They lose 4-year starter John Jerry, 3-year starter Reid Neely, and 2-year starter Daverin Geralds. Bradley Sowell is back with part-time starters Bobby Massie and Rishaw Johnson. Losing McCluster plus a more limited offensive line means production will fall.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #14 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #21
Six senior starters are back but the pass defense will slip from its high standard of last year.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #29 Adj. Pass Def: #19 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #8 Sacks: #16
The Ole Miss rushing defense should remain staunch as three starters return among the front four: Kentrell Locket (5 sacks, may be injured), Lawon Scott, and Jerrell Powe (9 tackles for loss), all seniors. Their stellar QB pressure ranking (#16) will probably decline though, as they lose starter Marcus Tillman, former starter Greg Hardy, and backup Emmanuel Stephens who combined for 16 sacks, as well as linebacker Patrick Trahan who had five. The other two linebackers, Jonathan Cornell and Alan Walker, are back givin the Rebels five senior starters in the front seven. The only concern is the secondary which loses three starters including #1 tackler Kendrick Lewis and Cassius Vaughn (11 pass breakups). Johnny Brown, another senior, returns but with the losses here and with a weaker pass rush the Rebels' pass defense will no longer rank in the top 10 on a per-attempt basis.

Kicking Game: Punter Tyler Campbell (44 yard average) is back for the Rebels but Joshua Shene departs after hitting 15 of 20 field goals. Sophomore Bryson Rose will take over as placekicker.
Return Game: Jesse Grandy took two kickoffs back for touchdowns as a true freshman last year, ramping up his average to 25.7 yards per return. Departing cornerback Marshay Green was the main punt returner with a 10.2 average; Grandy will replace him giving him even more touchdown opportunities this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #18
Houston Nutt brought in another top 25 recruiting class this year, his 2nd in a row, though it ranks as only average for the SEC. With a half-dozen consensus blue-chips such as defensive end Wayne Dorsey and quarterback Randall Mackey, this class and the one before it help to ease the loss of so much talent from last year's team. Still, two newcomers have gotten a lot more press than the superstar recruits. One of course is Masoli, whose immediate would have dwarfed that of any recruit. Without him Ole Miss is looking at having a very poor offense this year (falling from #28 to #84) instead of staying above average. The passing game would have been stronger and the running game would have been much better. We'll see if Masoli can be successfully integrated into the offense next year, unless the NCAA shockingly reverses its decision [update yes, we are shocked]. The next most talked-about newcomer might be offensive lineman Terrell Brown, who is nearly 7 feet tall and weighs upwards of 400 pounds. A walk-on, he's more of a curiosity than anything else thus far but if he gets on the field it will be a sight.

2009 Recap Expectations ran very high for Ole Miss in 2009 and they couldn't live up to them, making a 9-4 season feel like a disappointment. That came early as the Rebels fell to South Carolina 16-10 making the showdown with Alabama two weeks later look like a foregone conclusion. It was, with the Tide winning 22-3. They lost to Auburn but beat winning teams Arkansas and Tennessee, and escaped with a win against LSU, but ended the year losing to rival Mississippi State who finished 5-7. Paired with Oklahoma State in what could only be called the Consolation Bowl the Rebels won 21-7.

Ole Miss 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Jacksonville St.	64%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Tulane	85%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	67%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	57%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	53%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Alabama	24%	L
10/23	Sat	@	*Arkansas	23%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	38%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	LA-Lafayette	75%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Tennessee	52%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*LSU	36%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	47%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook Despite being a lesser team this year the Rebels should perform almost as well as last year's disappointing squad. Once the contributions of the new faces from the last two years of recruiting are added in the team looks quite a bit better.

Ole Miss should start 5-0 before running into a train wreck of back-to-back road games at Alabama and Arkansas. Auburn at home might make for a three-game losing streak which they should break against ULM.

They can beat Tennessee on the road but probably not LSU, and should lost to rival Mississippi State at home. This makes for a 7-5 season, though with possible upsets, etc., the cumulative projection claims that 6-6 is more likely. The first seven wins look solid, so I guess it comes down to that final game.

If Masoli's appeal to be eligible is successful, they'll probably only be 8-4; perhaps one more win, and a couple of wins (Kentucky, Tennessee) would have a better cushion. Worst case they might miss a bowl game at 4-8 or 5-7 and with Masoli that probably wouldn't happen; if he thrived within Nutt's offense the Rebels had the capacity to go 10-2. Instead, this year will look like last year. A bit less successful maybe, but perhaps less disappointing.

August 24, 2010 at 02:42 AM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (1)

August 23, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #46 to #50: BYU, Rutgers, South Florida, Central Florida, Southern Miss

This installment covers teams from #46 to #50. To see the full list, click here.

46. BYU Cougars (Mountain West #3) Polls: AP #34 USA/Coaches #28

2009 Results: Record: 11-2 Bowl: Beat Oregon St. 44-20 (Las Vegas) Poll finish: AP #12, USA #12
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #22 Success: #12 Overall: #21
Can BYU have another 10-win season without their offensive stars?

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #16 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #40
Max Hall, Harvey Unga, and Dennis Pitta all depart. Need we say more?
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #13    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #44
Max Hall threw for over 3,000 yards for three straight years, with 3,560 last year to go with 33 touchdown passes. He completed 67% of his passes as well. Not an easy act to follow, but freshman Jake Heaps and last year's backup Riley Nelson (10 attempts last season) will battle for the right to do so. Worse, they won't have star tight end Dennis Pitta (#1 receiver with 829 yards, 8 TDs) as a target, nor backup tight end Andrew George (#3 receiver, 408 yards). But there were a lot of yards to go around and McKay Jacobson, Luke Ashworth, and O'Neill Chambers combined for over 1,300 yards and are back with several others who caught a dozen or more tosses. The offensive line did a good job last year (23 sacks) considering how often BYU throws and they'll be stronger. But there's bound to be a decline without Hall and Pitta and it might be a big one.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #71     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #83
There was a notion that, if the passing game was put on hiatus while the new quarterback learned the ropes, then the BYU rushing attack with Harvey Unga could pick up the slack. Well, not so much anymore. Unga withdrew from school due to "honor code violations" apparently stemming from admitting he had pre-marital sex, a BYU no-no (his girlfriend withdrew for the same honor code reason). Just like that he was in the supplemental draft and BYU is without the third main cog in their offense and his 1,087 yards and 11 TDs. Another stalwart, fullback Manase Tonga (148 yards) is gone, too. Backup RB J.J. Di Luigi had 248 and Bryan Kariya 199 and both should do well behind the strong offensive line as it returns four starters. R.J. Willing is gone but Nick Alletto, Terrence Brown, Matt Reynolds, and Braden Hansen are all back. BYU didn't emphasize the running game much so any decline won't hurt much, but it would have been nice to see Harvey Unga rush for 1,000 yards for a fourth straight season.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #39 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #79
Losses to the "3" and the "4" of the 3-4 defense are extensive.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #25 Adj. Pass Def: #51 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #35 Sacks: #58
The Cougar defense loses two starters (really 2 1/2) from the 3-man front including Jan Jorgenson (6 sacks). Romney Fuga returns after starting the 2nd half of the season, and 2007 starter Kalama Kaluhiokalani is back from a mission. Among the linebackers only Jordan Pendleton is back, meaning the entire front seven has at most two starters from 2009. The secondary is relatively loaded, however, with #1 tackler Andrew Rich (4 interceptions), Brandon Bradley, and Brian Logan (14 pass breakups), all seniors. Overall they lose five of their seven top tacklers and the rushing defense will be tested this season.

Kicking Game: Mitch Payne (10 of 14 field goals) and Riley Stephenson (41.3 yard average) are back to placekick and punt for the Cougars.
Return Game: Receiver O'Neill Chambers handles most of the return chores, and averaged 6.0 yards per punt but an impressive 25.6 per kickoff return last season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #21
Bronco Mendenhall has BYU on a four-year streak of double-digit wins. Once again he's on top of the Mountain West in recruiting, this time with unusually excellent class. Probably the top three in the class are quarterback Jake Heaps who may start this year; wide receiver Ross Apo; and defensive end Bronson Kaufusi. All three are consensus blue chips.

2009 Recap The year started with a bang and had people wondering if BYU was going to be in a BCS bowl game. They went into Oklahoma (well, Arlington, but close enough) and came out with a 14-13 win after knocking Sam Bradford out of the game. They demolished Tulane 54-3 which only added to their hype. But the very next week they got the stuffing knocked out of them by FSU 54-28 at home. The BCS dream was over just like that. They won out the rest of the way—save for a 38-7 loss to TCU—and with a 26-23 overtime win vs. Utah they took 2nd place in the Mountain West. In the Las Vegas Bowl for the fifth straight time they stuffed Oregon State 44-20, further adding to the recent tally of MWC wins over the Pac-10.

BYU 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Washington	43%	L
9/11	Sat	@	*Air Force	51%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Florida State	35%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	Nevada	57%	W
10/1	Fri	@	Utah State	57%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	67%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*TCU	21%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	64%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*UNLV	69%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Colorado State	60%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	86%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Utah	44%	L
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Without their three stars on offense and losing a lot on defense, it doesn't appear than another 10+ win season is in the cards. But another trip to the Las Vegas Bowl is still in play.

BYU will run into trouble early, hosting Washington and traveling to Air Force and Florida State. They'll be lucky to emerge 1-2, but if they do any better than that they'll know they're on the right track.

Three wins should follow, then another loss to TCU. Four more wins, and a loss at Utah. In other words, a lot like last year but without the big win at the beginning nor a win over the Utes.

There are seven pretty solid wins here so a bowl game is almost a lock save an unexpected meltdown. Win the Air Force tossup and they're at 8 wins. The cumulative projection ignores all that and barely rounds itself up to 7-5. To get to ten wins they'd need a few upsets and/or a bowl win. It's not out of the question as Washington and Utah are beatable, but they are a lot of questions BYU needs to address. We'll probably have a good idea as to whether they've done their homework by late September.

47. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Big East #5)

2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Beat UCF 45-21 (St. Petersburg) Poll finish: AP #31, USA #39
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #47 Success: #40 Overall: #46
Looks like another 7 to 8 win season, which is the new normal for Rutgers football.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #59 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #62
A marginally better passing and running game aren't enough to lift Rutgers' offensive ranking.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #104    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #95
Quarterback Tom Savage had decent numbers (2,211 yards, 14 TDs, 7 int) except for his 52% completion rate. But he was a true freshman last season so that can be forgiven. He'll be much more seasoned as a sophomore, but he won't have the same targets as last year. Leading receiver and deep threat Tim Brown (1,150 yards and 9 touchdowns, 20.9 yds/reception) is gone, but fellow true sophomore Mohamed Sanu is back after collecting 639 yards on 51 catches. Starting tight end D.C. Jefferson is among the other returnees, but the summer has brought some surprises. First, Julian Hayes didn't return for a fifth season. Then projected starter Tim Wright got a medical redshirt. And his backup, Mark Harrison, might be out after a head injury. The offensive line gave up 40 sacks last year and it might not get any better. The only silver lining there is that Savage will know exactly what to expect after dealing with it last year. Despite all the drawbacks, Savage will improve his production, but don't expect anything too amazing.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #84     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #78
Joe Martinek didn't quite get a 1,000 yard season, falling 33 yards short. He also had 9 touchdown runs. The real find last year once again was wide receiver Sanu, who rushed for 346 yards with a 5.6 average, mostly out of a wildcat formation. The offensive line loses three 3-year starters: Anthony Davis, a 1st round NFL pick; Kevin Haslam; and Ryan Blaszczyk. That's bad but at least in addition to Howard Barbieri and Art Forst, Caleb Ruch who started in 2008 comes back from injury. So in some ways it's like having three starters return, though the losses certainly outweigh those retained. Again, better production might happen despite the O-line's decline.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #33 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #50
Good backups fill the gaps and prevent the defense from declining too much.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #18 Adj. Pass Def: #88 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #62 Sacks: #11
In 2009 Rutgers' rushing defense and quarterback pressure were both excellent. The defensive line returns three starters, Charlie Noonan, Scott Vallone, and Alex Silvestro (10 tackles for loss). They lose George Johnson's 6.5 sacks but his replacement, Jonathan Freeny, had 9.5. At linebacker #1 tackler Damaso Munoz is gone along with Ryan D'Imperio, while Antonio Lowery returns. Devin McCourty (10 pass breakups) is one of two starters gone from the secondary while David Rowe and Joe Lefeged return. Overall Rutgers loses their top four tacklers.

Kicking Game: Kicker San San Te hit just 18 of 28 field goals (3 of 10 past the 40), while Ted Dellaganna averaged 42.3 yards per punt. Both are back this year.
Return Game: Safety Joe Lefeged (32.4) and corner Devin McCourty (25.4) both stoked their kickoff return averages by taking one back for a touchdown. Lefeged is back along with punt returner Sanu, who averaged just 3.9 per punt return but is sure to get his TD return sometime soon.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #64
Greg Schiano has stayed with the Scarlet Knights despite everyone's best efforts to lure him away. After a 7-5 year in 2005 led to an 11-2 season in 2006, he's been able to maintain the program's momentum with 8- and 9-win seasons since. There's been some attrition that has reduced this year's class' rank and it doesn't compare with last season's near-top 25 class, but it's still competitive for the Big East. Brandon Coleman, a 6' 6" wide receiver from Forestville, MD, is a consensus blue chip and could start this year due to the issues Rutgers is having with wide receivers lately.

2009 Recap It took the Knights a while to impress anyone in 2009. Losing the opener to Cincinnati 47-15 didn't help. They won four straight but their victims were two I-AA teams, Florida International, and a broken Maryland squad. They lost to Pitt and beat Army to stand 5-2 but had failed to impress. Then they beat UConn 28-24, and followed it up with a 31-0 win over South Florida and suddenly Rutgers was 7-2 with momentum. Maybe it went to their heads as they were crushed the next week by Syracuse of all teams, 31-13. They beat Louisville then finished the year with a loss to West Virginia, 24-21 and were 8-4 but in all but one case they'd failed to win the big game. Somewhat surprisingly they "showed up" for their bowl game and manhandled Central Florida 45-24, giving the team 9 wins on the season.

Rutgers 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Norfolk State	86%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Florida International	72%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	North Carolina	36%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	Tulane	90%	W
10/8	Fri	vs.	*Connecticut	49%	L
10/16	Sat	N	Army	60%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	38%	L
11/3	Wed	@	*South Florida	47%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	59%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	41%	L
11/26	Fri	vs.	*Louisville	69%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*West Virginia	39%	L
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook It looks like Rutgers might have another typical 8-win season this year—if they win their fifth bowl game in a row.

Rutgers doesn't play two FCS teams this year but Tulane nearly counts along with Norfolk State. Add in FIU and you have three guaranteed wins out of the first four games. The other game is UNC, so count on a 3-1 start.

Then comes a pivotal game against UConn. If they can win that they'll be 5-1 after playing Army in East Rutherford. The Big East season doesn't look promising but they should beat Syracuse and Louisville, and maybe South Florida.

Added up, there are six wins, or somewhere in the 6-8 range depending on whether Rutgers overcomes some of its issues this season (O-line, defense). But for the most part I think 7-5 is accurate, and the cumulative projection agrees. Six of the wins are pretty solid and the the UConn game and South Florida games might be split. Another year, another winning season and a bowl game. Even some Rutgers fans are getting jaded and impatient for Schiano take the program to the next level. Still, I don't think we'll see firegregschiano.com any time soon.

48. South Florida Bulls (Big East #6) Polls: USA/Coaches #45

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat N. Illinois 27-3 (International) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #49 Success: #41 Overall: #47
Stronger on offense but weaker on D, USF remains about the same under new coach Skip Holtz.

Offense (8.5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #77 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #54
A stronger offensive line will aid B.J. Daniels as he leads the USF offense
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #97    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #71
When perenniel starter Matt Grothe went out with an ACL tear early last season freshman B.J. Daniels stepped in and did an admirable job under the conditions. He couldn't match Grothe's completion rate (54% to 73%), he had far fewer passing yards per game (1,983 in 10 games) and he threw 9 interceptions to go with his 14 touchdowns. But he ran the ball as well as Grothe and when he led the team to a win over Florida State the fans were sold on him. Daniels returns but there are issues in the receiver corps. Top gained Carlton Mitchell (708 yards) is gone, and #2 and #4 A.J. Love (489) and Sterling Griffin (265) are out with injuries for up to half the season. Senior Dontavia Bogan (305) is back and tight end Kevin Gidrey comes in from East Carolina and is eligible this year. The offensive line ranked 108th in quarterback protection last year but will be a whole lot better as nearly all starters return. So there should be a substantial improvement in the passing game but it won't all take effect until mid-year when the receiving corps is at full strength.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #42     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #32
QB Daniels, like Grothe before him, ended up the team's rushing leader with 772 yards and 9 TDs. Running back Moise Plancher finished #2 with 581 yards, while Mike Ford (450) was kicked off the team not too long after coach Holtz arrived. Daniels and Plancher will be operating behind a much better O-line as four starters return. Sampson Genus, Jacob Sims, Chaz Hine, and Jeremiah Warren—all upperclassmen—return while Jamar Bass and Mark Popek (out first two? games with knee) filled in as a part-time starters last year. Only Zach Hermann departs, due to neck problems that forced an early end to his career. While the run blocking should be better a substantial part of the production increase may come from reducing the 250+ sack yards the team gave up in '09.

Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #22 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #45
Big losses—including stalwart George Selvie—leave the Bull defense weaker.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #30 Adj. Pass Def: #36 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #24 Sacks: #41
George Selvie started for three years and never matched his unreal 2007 stats since he was a marked man and double-teamed constantly. That left Jason Pierre-Paul to do the damage, as he racked up 6.5 sacks and another 10 tackles for loss. Both are gone this year, leaving a big void in the defensive line. Terrell McClain is back to anchor the new line but a decrease and sacks and a slip in rushing defense is inevitable. Particularly because the Bulls only return one of three starting linebackers, Sabbath Joseph as top tackler Kion Wilson departs. The secondary loses Nate Allen and Jerome Murphy who had 4 interceptions each, but Quenton Washington returns with half-time starters Jerrell Young and Kayvon Webster. Overall the team loses its four top tacklers and six of the top seven.

Kicking Game: Delbert Alvarado handled both punting (40.6 average) and placekicking but made just 1 of 5 field goal attempts so Eric Schwartz (11 of 16) took over. Schwartz is back but Alvarado is gone and taking over punting chores will be soph Justin Brockhaus-Kann.
Return Game: Faron Hornes had just a 5.0 yard average on punt returns, while fellow receiver Dontavia Bogan had better results on kickoffs with a 21.4 average. Both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #58
Jim Leavitt guided the program into Division I-A but fell victim to somewhat similar circumstances as Mark Mangino at Kansas with regard to "player abuse." Skip Holtz was brought in from East Carolina and while recruiting understandably slipped during the transition the class is still in the middle of the pack in the Big East. Blue chip D-back Terrence Mitchell from Tampa is the class' prize, but Holtz added value by bringing transfer Kevin Gidrey (TE/RB) from East Carolina; he got a waiver to be eligible this year.

2009 Recap USF had another typical recent season: go undefeated early, then struggle. In 2007-8, the Bulls were 11-0 early (combined) and finished 5-8. In 2009 they started 5-0, beating such powerhouses as Wofford, Western Kentucky, Charleston Southern, and Syracuse early. To be fair they did upset Florida State too. Then the losses started, first with Cincy and Pitt, then Rutgers, and later Miami and UConn. Finishing 7-5, the Bulls blasted Northern Illinois 27-3 in the International Bowl.

USF 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Stony Brook	81%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Florida	25%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	75%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	73%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	58%	W
10/14	Thu	@	*West Virginia	38%	L
10/22	Fri	@	*Cincinnati	41%	L
11/3	Wed	vs.	*Rutgers	54%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Louisville	63%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Pittsburgh	44%	L
11/27	Sat	@	Miami (Florida)	30%	L
12/4	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	49%	L
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook This season the trend of being 5-0 or 6-0 early will probably come to a halt. Not that they can't beat the usual cupcakes foes Stony Brook, Western Kentucky, FAU, and Syracuse. But someone messed up and put Florida in there. Now it's true that USF has had at least one upset in the mix the last three years: Auburn and West Virginia in 2007, Kansas in 2008, and FSU in '09. So maybe Florida is walking into a trap.

Either way, the late season "collapse" will happen again, just because that's when most of the tough games are. West Virginia, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Miami all appear to be losses. Depending on the UConn game and it leaves the Bulls 6-6 or 7-5. Both are about equal odds, but since the wins are narrower than the losses the 6-6 cumulative projection is much more likely to come true than an 8-4 record.

But if the Bulls do upset the Gators (they play in the Swamp), it will only make matters worse when the hype gets out of hand once again before the inevitable fall. Unless Skip Holtz has something up sleeve, but seeing East Carolina go through the hype in early 2008 makes me think he doesn't have the answers either.

49. Central Florida Knights (C-USA #2; East #1) Polls: AP #46

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Rutgers 45-21 (St. Petersburg Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #63 Success: #59 Overall: #63
How good can the Knights be in 2010? How about 11-1?

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #84 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #77
The return of Brynn Harvey is important for the advancement of the offense this year.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #77    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #83
Rob Calabrese has put in some valuable time at quarterback the last few years which should serve him well when he takes over for Brett Hodges (2,438 yards, 17 TDs, 13 int) this year. Calabrese completed only 54% last year for 260 yards, but that's miles better than the 39% he had for 2008. To his credit his TD:int ratio has always been good and last year it was 3:0. Nearly the full complement of receivers is back including Kamar Aiken (610 yards, 9 TDs), A.J. Guyton (572), and starting tight end Adam Nissley as only #3 Rocky Ross departs among the six who had over 100 yards. The offensive line should improve on its 33 sacks allowed (#100 in FBS adjusted). Overall the passing game will slide but not too much.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #90     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #59
Brynn Harvey's spring knee injury became a pivotal issue for the team, given that he was responsible for 1,109 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. Right now it looks as though Harvey will be out about 3 games. For those games Johnathan Davis (310 yards) will be a capable replacement, with immediately-eligible Iowa transfer Jeff Brinson another option. With the offensive line in great shape it shouldn't matter too much who carries the ball (within reason of course). Ian Bustillo is the only full-time starter gone, as Cliff McRay, Jah Reid, and Nick Pieschel are back with part-time starters Theo Goins and Abre Leggins. With everyone back—most importantly Harvey at some point—ground production will increase.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #44 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #26
Six of the top seven tacklers are back, including the team's sack and interception leaders.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #7 Adj. Pass Def: #113 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #108 Sacks: #6
Central Florida had a stifling rushing defense last year and this year should be nearly as good. They also had a dominant pass rush and continuing that is questionable as they lose Jarvis Geather (11 sacks) but return Bruce Miller (13 sacks). Starter David Williams also returns to the line. The linebacking corps is loaded despite the loss of #1 tackler Cory Hogue (103 tackles, 9.5 for loss). The #2 and #3 tacklers, Derrick Hallman and Lawrence Young (10 tackles for loss) are back and 2008 starter Chance Henderson returns from a redshirt year. In addition, Michael Dominguez who started at Florida International in 2008 is eligible this season. All of the returnees above are seniors, so there are six seniors with full-year I-A starting experience in the UCF front seven. In the secondary Kemal Ishmael, Josh Robinson (6 interceptions), and Justin Boddie are back, hoping to improve the defense's real weak area, the pass defense. Between the returning sack leader, the talent at linebacker, and three starters back in the secondary the pass defense should be much better, and with it the overall D.

Kicking Game: Nick Cattoi made a respectable 14 of 20 field goals in 2009, while Blake Clingan averaged only 37.3 yards per punt (though his net was 35.5). Both are back this season.
Return Game: A.J. Guyton averaged 10.8 yards per punt return, while fellow WR Quincy McDuffie had 24.2 per kickoff and returned one for a touchdown. Darin Baldwin also got into the act with a 27.2 average. All three are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #70
George O'Leary has alternated between winning and losing seasons since he took over at Central Florida. Always a controversial figure since the Notre Dame credentials debacle, he was further under scrutiny in the off-season when the NCAA put UCF on probation citing "major violations" consisting of improper phone calls and text messages to recruits. Well it must have worked since UCF ranks near the top of the C-USA in recruiting this year. Miami-area recruits Torrian Wilson (O-line) and Joshua Reese (receiver) are among the near-blue chips O'Leary signed this round.

2009 Recap UCF started with a thud as they barely beat Samford, 28-24 and lost to Southern Miss. They alternated wins and losses for the first half of the season until they finally got two in a row with Rice (49-7) and Marshall (21-20). The Knights lost to Texas 35-3 but upset Houston 37-32 the next week. An 8-4 record pitted them against Rutgers who walloped them in the St. Petersburg Bowl 45-24.

UCF 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	South Dakota	76%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	North Carolina State	57%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Buffalo	62%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Kansas State	54%	W
10/6	Wed	vs.	*UAB	60%	W
10/13	Wed	@	*Marshall	58%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Rice	75%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*East Carolina	68%	W
11/5	Fri	@	*Houston	42%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	55%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Tulane	84%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Memphis	69%	W
Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook If UCF continues their pattern of winning and losing seasons then the Knights won't be going to a bowl game this year (I won't guess whether going 6-6 and losing in a bowl game counts or not). But it's likely that they'll buck the trend in 2010.

UCF gets only marginally better this season but it's enough—coupled with a friendly schedule—to make them the favorite in every game except one this year.

Not only that, but just a handful of the wins are close: Kansas State, maybe Southern Miss, possibly North Carolina State, UAB, and Marshall. In other words there are six very solid wins so the on/off pattern will be broken.

Beyond that it's hard to say. The cumulative projection conservatively says they'll repeat last year's record, which is fair enough. But if we assume the Knights are going to lose to Houston on the road, then the corresponding wins over UAB and Marshall have to be assumed, too. That makes 8 wins with three tossup games left. So I'm guessing that UCF will go either 9-3 or 10-2 this year. Either way the alternating good/bad years syndrome will be thrown out as temporary coincidence after the 2010 season.

50. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (C-USA #3; East #2)

2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Lost to M. Tenn. 42-32 (New Orleans Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #67 Success: #75 Overall: #68
The offense slips without key personnel but the defense should make up for that.

Offense (3 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #40 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #78
Losing their perennial rushing leaders and a weakened O-line hurts the Eagles.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #55    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #64
When Austin Davis fell to injury early last season he had a great 10:2 TD:int ratio. Martaveous Young took over and was just as good on that stat, throwing 16 touchdown passes against just 3 interceptions. The two combined for over 3,000 passing yards. Davis' completion rate (69%) outshined Young's (57%) and he will have his starting job back this fall, but everyone is reassured that there is a more than capable backup in the house if needed. The situation at receiver isn't as golden, despite the return of top dog DeAndre Brown (785 yards and 9 TDs). The next four down the line, including receivers Gerald Baptiste and Freddie Parham and tight end Leroy Banks, are gone. Other talent will pick up the slack, but the Eagles can't count on such solid pass protection this year. One reason Young stepped in so seamlessly is that the offensive line gave up just 16 sacks (#29 adjusted). With four starters gone that is likely to increase a lot, making Davis' job that much harder.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #45     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #99
For the fourth straight year, Damion Fletcher and Tony Harrison provided a heckava one-two punch for Southern Miss. Fletcher ran for 1,015 yards and 8 TDs while Harrison added 647 and 10 TDs last year. Both move on, leaving a big gap in the offense as QB Young is the leading returning rusher at 294 yards. The offensive line is another issue. Senior Cameron Zipp returns but the line loses three 2-year starters (Micah Brown, Ryan Hebert, and Kyle Burkhart) as well as Brennan Houston. Losing your top two backs—one of them a four-year 1,000 yard rusher—and 4/5 of your offensive line is a formula for a big decline in rushing yardage.

Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #85 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #52
Strength at linebacker leads the way for an improved defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #66 Adj. Pass Def: #114 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #71 Sacks: #40
Six players pulled most of the D-line duty last season and five are back. Terrance Conner (5 sacks) departs but Cordarro Law (7.5 sacks), Terrance Pope, Anthony Gray, Dedrick Jones, and Roshaad Byrd should have the four slots covered well. All three starters return at linebacker, consisting of the team's top three tacklers, Korey Williams (121 tackles, 7.5 sacks), Ronnie Thornton (114 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss), and Martez Smith (2 int.). They lose Andre Watson (9 pass breakups) and Eddie Hicks (5 interceptions) from the secondary, the weakest part of the defense last year. But seniors Justin Wilson (2 int.) and C.J. Bailey (13 pass breakups) form a strong core, and with a solid pass rush up front and strong linebackers the pass defense may improve too.

Kicking Game: Southern Miss used two placekickers last season and both had trouble with PATs (9 missed total). Justin Estes hit 10 of 13 field goals and Daniel Hrapmann made just 4 of 7. Both are back and will battle for the starting job. Punter Peter Boehme averaged a low 38.5 yards per punt but had a solid net of 36.4. He's back for his sophomore year.
Return Game: The Golden Eagles had three touchdown kick returns last year; two were by freshman Tracy Lampley, one on a punt (14.5 yard average) and one on a kickoff (27.6 average). The other was a kickoff return by Freddie Parham. In Lampley (a wide receiver) the Eagles have one of the country's best return men and this year should be just as exciting.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #54
Larry Fedora has had two 7-6 years with the Eagles, the same record that got Jeff Bower to "resign." In all the Eagles have had 7 wins in six of the last eight seasons. Southern Miss topped the C-USA in recruiting last year and they are #2 this season, so they should eventually top that.

2009 Recap Southern Miss was 3-0, then 3-3, then 7-4 before ending the year with two losses including a loss at East Carolina that kept them out of the C-USA title game, and a bowl loss to Dwight Dasher and Middle Tennessee State. The most memorable game was their loss at Houston, where they battled the Cougars to the very end.

Southern Miss 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	@	South Carolina	32%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	Prairie View A&M	83%	W
9/17	Fri	vs.	Kansas	59%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Louisiana Tech	48%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Marshall	62%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*East Carolina	66%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Memphis	67%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*UAB	56%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Tulane	81%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Central Florida	44%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Houston	46%	L
11/27	Sat	@	*Tulsa	52%	W
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Southern Miss might get out of the 7-6 trap this year—or maybe not. If you believe the "straight up" projection there are eight wins on the board. The cumulative projection adds up to seven wins which could have them in the same boat for the fourth straight year.

But the odds favor a better performance. Only one game—the opener at South Carolina—looks too tough for the Eagles. After that there are seven fairly solid wins before the final at Tulsa, which is a narrow win. The other three games on the slate are close losses. So as a best-case scenario, Southern Miss could conceivably go 11-1 this season.

More likely they'll match the 8-4 projection or go 9-3. With six wins "in the bank" they're nearly a shoo-in for another bowl, and five other games are very close; winning 2 or 3 of those yields the 8 to 9 game estimate. Of course all of this is dependent on the defense making big enough gains to offset the decline in the offense. If that doesn't happen, the Eagles will struggle to make a bowl game.

August 23, 2010 at 10:44 AM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 22, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #51 to #55: Fresno State, Navy, Air Force, Michigan, Nevada

This installment covers teams from #51 to #55. To see the full list, click here.

51. Fresno State Bulldogs (WAC #2)

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Wyoming 35-28 2OT (New Mexico Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #62 Success: #64 Overall: #65
No breakthrough year but another solid season for Pat Hill and the Bulldogs.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #31 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #31
A more balanced offense but the same basic result: A lot of scoring.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #81    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #54
Ryan Colburn had a strong 2009, with nearly 2,500 yards to go with 19 touchdowns. He had 11 interceptions though, and if he slips backup Derek Carr is ready to go in. Between these two the Bulldog quarterback position is in good hands. The receiver slots are spotty with only Jamel Hamler (503 yards) back among the leaders. Gone are #1 Seyi Ajirotutu (677 yards), #3 Chastin West and #4 Marlin Moore. #5 Devon Wylie (259) yards is back and starting tight end Vince Pascoe, and Rashad Evans comes back from a redshirt year (232 yards in '08) but the targets will be fewer for Colburn. He should have a lot more time, though, as the O-line is stocked and pass protection should improve from last year's #58 rating. Look for Colburn to have a strong senior season.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #14     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #25
Ryan Matthews' 1808 yards and amazing 19 TDs powered the Fresno State offense last year. They'll miss him immensely but Robbie Rouse had a strong freshman year gaining 479 with a 5.8 average (Matthews averaged 6.6). #3 Lonyae Miller (354) departs as well, leaving a lot on Rouse's shoulders. Luckily he'll have basically the same offensive line—a year wiser—to pave the way for him that they did for Matthews. Four seniors—Andrew Jackson, Devan Cunningham, Kenny Wiggins, and Joe Bernardi join junior Bryce Harris. Just one half-time starter, Richard Pachecho, departs after sharing the Center position with Bernardi last season. While Rouse can't make up for Matthews' absence he should have a great year running behind this O-line and production should still be near top 25 level.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #88 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #74
Six of Fresno State's seven returning starters are seniors.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #109 Adj. Pass Def: #29 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #81 Sacks: #120
The sad Bulldogs rushing defense should get a boost as the defensive line loses just one starter. At the end slots Chris Carter is back after notching 5 sacks and Chris Lewis returns; both are seniors. At nose tackle senior Cornell Banks and Chase McEntee combined to start the entire year. At linebacker another senior, Ben Jacobs, was the team's top tackler with 106 and Kyle Knox is back, too. They lose #3 tackler Moses Harris in the secondary but two more seniors, Desia Dunn and Lorne Bell (#2 tackler) are back. With Carter back on the D-line the team might be able to escape the NCAA cellar for sacks (adjusted for opposition) as they totalled just 11 last season.Overall five of the top six tacklers are back and the defense should make good progress.

Kicking Game: Fresno State had fantastic kickers last year, with punter Robert Malone averaging 45.2 yards and placekicker Kevin Goessling hitting 15 of 16 field goals. There were set again with Goessling returning and the nation's top high school punter coming in, but Matt Darr decommitted. Andrew Shapiro will take over instead.
Return Game: Receiver Chastin West had a 9.9 average returning punts and took one back for a touchdown; he departs but Devon Wylie (8.9 average) returns. At kick returner Rashad Evans, who fielded punts in 2008, will take over for A.J. Jefferson (23.2 average). The fielding unit is in good hands.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #76
Pat Hill continues to plug along, hoping to build toward a Boise State-like breakthrough year. He's come close a few times but tends to schedule very hard in the pre-conference portion. After an off-year in 2009 recruiting is back up near the top of the WAC, even after the loss of punter Matt Darr to Tennessee. Darr initially committed to USC but when Pete Carroll jumped ship Darr committed to Fresno State. But Bulldog special teams coach John Baxter was hired away—by USC—so Darr left again.

2009 Recap A tough early schedule almost wrecked the 2009 season but the Bulldogs righted the ship and had a good year. After beating I-AA UC Davis 51-0 FSU ran into a wall with Wisconsin (lost in double overtime), Boise State (51-34), and Cincinnati (28-21). But since all three games were close Fresno rated high in power ratings (#14 in the Strength Power Rating at 1-3) so it was clear that better times were ahead. They were. The Bulldogs won seven out of their next eight, losing only to upstart Idaho and beating Illinois in a barnburner with a crazy finish. They ended on a bad note as they were upset by Wyoming in another tight game, 35-28 in double overtime.

Fresno State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Cincinnati	44%	L
9/18	Sat	@	*Utah State	53%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Mississippi	37%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	Cal Poly-SLO	76%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Hawaii	67%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	85%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*San Jose State	78%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Louisiana Tech	48%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Nevada	54%	W
11/19	Fri	@	*Boise State	17%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	54%	W
12/3	Fri	vs.	Illinois	58%	W
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook While not the breakthrough year Pat Hill would like to see, Fresno State should have another solid eight-win season.

Again they have a tough early year with Cincy and Ole Miss, meaning they should start 2-2 before the WAC season. There they can beat everyone except Boise State. Since they get Nevada at home that's probably a win, and Louisiana Tech on the road might be a loss. They finish with Illinois at home and should be able to win that game again, and a bit more easily than last year.

No game is really out of reach except Boise State (and maybe Mississippi) so they could reach double digits, but three of their wins are close games so they could fall below bowl eligibility, too. The cumulative projection sees a 7-5 year so they're pretty safe on the latter issue.

There are a lot of teams on their slate that are in flux, i.e., they may be significantly better or worse depending on many factors. Cincinnati, Mississippi, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, and Illinois are all such teams, as is Fresno State themselves. As such perhaps the cumulative estimate is more reliable. Too many close wins against unpredictable opponents makes me wary that they can reach 8 or 9 wins, but bowl eligibility should happen again.

52. Navy Midshipmen (Independent #2) Polls: AP #38, USA/Coaches #38

2009 Results: Record: 10-4 Bowl: Beat Missouri 35-13 (Texas Bowl) Poll finish: AP #28, USA #26
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #43 Success: #42 Overall: #44
Despite losses on defense Navy has an outside chance to run the table in 2010.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #58 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #58
Hardly anything changes in the Navy offense: they'll run the ball a lot and won't pass much.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #119    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #119
We don't need to spend much time on Navy's passing game as it hardly exists, and that's by design. But when the Midshipmen do pass it takes opponents by surprise. On those occasions Navy likes to go deep, so although Ricky Dobbs only completes 53% of his passes the team's per-attempt average ranked #3 in the nation. Dobbs had just over 1,000 yards of production, 6 TDs and 3 interceptions. His leading receiver Marcus Curry averaged 28.7 yards per completion but had just 10 catches, and #2 Bobby Doyle had 10 catches for 198 yards. Both are gone, Curry having been dismissed in the summer along with #3 receiver Mario Washington, who had transitioned to cornerback. That leaves the #4 and #5, Greg Jones and Mike Schupp who are the actual starting wide receivers and combined for 12 catches and 210 yards. But the O-line gave up sacks on a whopping 20% of attempts last year. It's looking like the Navy passing game may suffer a bit, but they don't have far to fall. There, we just spent WAY too much time worrying about Navy's passing game.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #3     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #2
Navy's triple-option running attack is all that really matters about the offense. They were set for a boost before Curry's dismissal; he was third on the team with 585 rushing yards. But they still have the rest of the top six and will have just as strong of an attack, as QB Dobbs' 1,203 yards and astronomical 27 touchdowns return along with fullback Vince Murray's 971 and 6. The offensive line will provide much the same in terms of run blocking as last year. Two starters, Curtis Bass and Osei Asante, depart while two others, Matt Molloy and Jeff Battipaglia, are back along with a number of part-timers. Regardless of the specifics, Navy will continue to do what it does best: eat up yards on the ground.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #28 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #58
Navy had a very effective defense last year but losses at linebacker leave a big hole.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #26 Adj. Pass Def: #76 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #61 Sacks: #100
Jabaree Tuani and Chase Burge return to the 3-man Navy D-line, hoping to perpetuate Navy's near-top 25 rushing defense from '09, but there's a problem at linebacker: they lose all their starters. Full-time starters Ron Pospisil (#1 tackler w/107, 4 sacks), Tony Haberer (#2 tackler), and Ram Vela (3 interceptions) are gone with half-time starters Clint Sovie and Craig Schaefer (6 sacks), leaving backup Tyler Simmons (#3 tackler) to hold down the fort. The news is better in the secondary as seniors Kevin Edwards, Wyatt Middleton (4 interceptions), and Emmett Merchant, who combined for 17 pass breakups, are all back. Obviously without the entire starting linebacking corps the defense will be less effective, but Navy won't have a bad defense by most standards.

Kicking Game: The kicking team did a great job last year, with placekicker Joe Buckley hitting all his extra point attempts and 10 of 13 field goals. Punter Kyle Delahooke averaged 43.1 yards per kick. Both are back for the Midshipmen.
Return Game: Slotback Gee Gee Greene, the team's #5 rusher last season, returned kickoffs too but averaged just 18.4 yards as a freshman. Mario Washington handled punts and had a 6.4 yard average. Greene is back but Bo Snelson is listed on the return team, while Washington was dismissed. #4 rusher Alexander Teich also returned kicks last season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #90
Ken Niumatalolo hasn't missed a step since taking over for Paul Johnson, with 8- and 10-win seasons under his belt. Navy's recruiting is always hard to judge due to the sheer volume of players to wade through, but this year's class is a bit smaller than last year's in terms of I-A level prospects. One of them, linebacker Vinnie Mauro, is a consensus almost-blue chip player, the kind Navy rarely gets. Though last year's class ranked higher, the top four players in this year's are better in theory than any from the 2009 class.

2009 Recap Navy kicked off 2009 by losing two of three, but the first one was a morale booster when they nearly beat Ohio State in Columbus, falling 31-27. They won five straight games to go 6-2 but two were overtime (Air Force and SMU). They lost to Temple by a field goal then topped Notre Dame for only the 2nd time in 40+ years, 23-21. Travelling to Hawaii the team was surprised 24-17 but they beat rival Army 17-3 to finish 9-4 in the regular season. Matched against the Big Twelve's Missouri in the Texas Bowl they ran all over the field and won 35-13.

Navy 2010 schedule & forecast
9/6	Mon	N	Maryland	50%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Georgia Southern	79%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Louisiana Tech	48%	L
10/2	Sat	@	Air Force	47%	L
10/9	Sat	@	Wake Forest	48%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	SMU	60%	W
10/23	Sat	N	Notre Dame	45%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	Duke	56%	W
11/6	Sat	@	East Carolina	60%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	57%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	70%	W
12/11	Sat	N	Army	56%	W
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook It looks like another good year for Navy and Niumatalolo, and with a little luck (ok, a lot) it could be very special.

Navy has a very easy schedule in 2010. Despite being a weaker team this year, there are seven solid wins on the slate and edging Maryland in the opener would make that eight.

Then there are the losses. Road games at Louisiana Tech, Air Force, and Wake Forest will be very close. The Notre Dame game—played in East Rutherford this year—is another close one.

Should Navy win all of those, they'll be 12-0. And none is a huge hurdle, really: Navy defeated Louisiana Tech last season 32-14; they're 2-2 against Wake Forest the last three seasons; and they've defeated Air Force the last seven games in the series. They've even taken two of the last three away from Notre Dame.

The cumulative projection gives them seven wins, enough for a bowl game. Taking the solid seven wins and splitting the others—probably a reasonable assumption—gives Navy 9 or 10 wins. I'll go with 9-3 as my "official" prediction but will be watching Navy carefully early on. They could start 1-4 and be 2-5 after Notre Dame. But if they get past an improved Maryland team in the opener and get through the road haul at 5-0, look out. The Notre Dame game becomes huge then.

53. Air Force Falcons (Mountain West #4)

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Houston 47-20 (Armed Forces) Poll finish: AP #38, USA #39
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #32 Success: #55 Overall: #36
Air Force has had three winning seasons in a row. Now they just have to beat Navy.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #57 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #80
A brand new O-line causes a dip in rushing yards, which pulls the whole offense down.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #117    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #118
Tim Jefferson almost makes Air Force want to pass the ball. Unlike Connor Dietz (47% completion rate) and certainly Ben Cochran (26%), Jefferson is an accurate, reasonably efficient quarterback, completing 57% of his passes for 5 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. Since this is Air Force, he had just 848 yards but when he's in the Falcons have a real threat that opponents must respect. Two receivers had over 100 yards and both are back: Kevin Fogler (567 yards, 5 TDs) and Jonathan Warzeka (246). The offensive line yielded just 11 sacks but that's plenty considering the number of passing plays; with 5 starters gone, QB protection could be much worse even. All things considered it's not a stretch to predict that Air Force will continue to have one of the least productive passing games in college football. But with one of the best passers they've had in recent memory, it will be interesting to see how they exploit this part of their offense.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #4     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #13
A whopping seven players on Air Force rushed for over 200 yards last season. Six are back, as Savier Stephens (#3 with 417) opted out of football for his senior season. That means star fullback Jared Tew (970 yards, 9 TDs) and tailback Asher Clark (865, 7 TDs) will again carry the load, aided by QB Dietz (369), WR Warzeka (267), QB Jefferson (254), and Nathan Walker (218). Tew gained 4.1 yards per rush but everyone else averaged over 5.0 except Jefferson (2.9 due to sacks). The offensive line runs a complicated scheme to set runners free and the line is revamped this year: 4-year starter Nick Charles, 2-year starters Peter Lusk and Chris Campbell, and Ryan Gonzales and Michael Hampton are all gone. On one hand the Falcons lose a tremendous amount of experience running their system; on the other hand, it is a system and the specific players are less important. But there's no doubt that going from five years of experience to zero is going to hurt. Air Force runs the ball so much that they'll remain a top 25 rushing team but they won't be sitting near the top with Navy this year.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #15 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #22
Ken Lamendola is a question mark at linebacker.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #49 Adj. Pass Def: #9 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #32 Sacks: #67
On the 3-man defensive line Air Force loses their top player, Ben Garland (4.5 sacks) but returns Rick Ricketts (4 sacks). At linebacker the situtation is unclear. The Falcons lose their top two tacklers from 2009, John Falgout (105 tackles) and Justin Moore. #3 Andre Morris returns with a number of part-time starters, one of whom is Ken Lamendola who was injured mid-season. Lamendola was the team's top tackler in 2008 and should be back some time this year, but will miss at least the first month. Though the excellent secondary loses Chris Thomas (5 interceptions), Anthony Wright (7 int) is back with Reggie Rembert and John Davis (3 int each). Overall the defense might slip a bit but will still be among the nation's best.

Kicking Game: Senior punter Keil Bartholomew will replace Brandon Geyer (43.0 average, 39.5 net) while placekicker Erik Soderberg (22 of 30 field goals) returns.
Return Game: Cornerback Reggie Rembert returned both punts and kicks, averaging 25.1 yards on the latter while fellow corner Anthony Wright handled most punts and averaged an insane 18.2 yards due to his touchdown return. Receiver Warzeka also handled kickoffs and had a 27.9 average and one touchdown return. All are back this year and this unit will continue to be a boon to the offense.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #62
Troy Calhoun has done a fantastic job at Air Force. He immediately turned them into a winner and against the odds he has kept them that way the last few seasons. Like the other service academies the Falcons recruit in bulk, with few standout players coming to the program but being culled from the masses to fit into the system. That's the story this year, too, as only a handful of players are standouts and none are blue chips. Still, Calhoun will forge winning teams with them.

2009 Recap The Falcons kicked off 2009 in style, dominating poor Nicholls State 72-0. They nearly beat Minnesota on the road but fell 20-13, then beat cupcakes New Mexico and San Diego State before the showdown with Navy. Once again they came close but lost, 16-13 in overtime, the seventh straight loss to the Midshipmen. They even played powerhouse TCU tough, losing just 20-17, and fell to Utah in overtime. Their only other loss was to BYU, giving them 5 losses—three to top 25 teams and 2 others by 10 points total. They dominated Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl by intercepting Case Keenum several times on defense, and by running the ball (surprise) well on offense.

Air Force 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Northwestern State	97%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	*Brigham Young	49%	L
9/18	Sat	@	Oklahoma	19%	L
9/25	Sat	@	*Wyoming	54%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	Navy	53%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	62%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*San Diego State	58%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*TCU	17%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Utah	47%	L
11/6	Sat	@	Army	55%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	83%	W
11/18	Thu	@	*UNLV	59%	W
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Could this be the year that Air Force beats Navy? Perhaps. There are going to be a lot of tight games and that's just one of them.

Northwestern State is this year's opening sacrifice, then they host BYU right away in a game they could win or lose. A trip to Oklahoma follows and I doubt they'll have BYU's success from last year.

Wyoming will be tough too but the Falcons should prevail, then comes the showdown with the Midshipmen. By this point Ken Lamendola will be nearly ready to return, and I would be he makes sure he is out there. They play in Colorado Springs so the advantage goes to Air Force. It should be yet another close game in the series and though it shows as a win here Air Force might be jinxed. We'll see.

After that the Falcons have four pretty easy wins in the last seven games, one near-certain loss (TCU), and two close and important games: Utah at home and Army on the road. With only two "certain" losses the Falcons could go 10-2 but only five wins are "guaranteed" so 5-7 is almost as likely. Counting the easy wins and tossup games yields 7 or 8 wins, so take your pick between the two projections.

54. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten #6)

2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #75 Success: #80 Overall: #74
Michigan should reach a bowl game this year but might need to win it to save RichRod.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #54 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #46
One year of experience should do wonders for Michigan's quarterbacks.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #67    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #46
Tate Forcier was reasonably productive as Michigan's quarterback in 2009, passing for 2,050 yards and 13 TDs. But he had 10 interceptions, too, and was so underwhelming that many wished that Denard "Shoelace" Robinson would take over. The competition is open in the fall but Robinson—a great, fast runner—has to have improved his accuracy (45% for 2 TDs and 4 ints) to win the job. Two of the three top receivers are back; Roy Roundtree and Martaveous Odoms (706 yards combined) are back while #2 Greg Matthews moves on. Three others topped 199 yards including starting tight end Kevin Kroger. The offensive line allowed 28 sacks—#61 when corrected for opponents—and QB protection will still be an issue this year. But with their two freshman quarterbacks turning sophomores this year, things can only get a lot better for the Wolverines.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #43     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #53
Brandon Minor and Carlos Brown led the Wolverine ground attack, combining for 982 yards and 12 touchdowns. Both depart leaving QB Robinson the leading returning rusher with 351 (5.1 average). Vincent Smith (#4 with 276) tore his ACL last November but has recovered and should be in the running to start along with Michael Shaw (185 yds) and redshirt freshman Fitzgerald Toussaint. The offensive line is in decent shape. They lose Mark Ortmann and David Moosman but Stephen Schilling returns with Perry Dorrestein and Mark Huyge, and '08 starter David Molk is back. The line should be a bit better than last year but with their top two runners gone they might slip a bit.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #84 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #85
Lots of talent back but due to a key loss and recent injury the defense may spin its wheels.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #96 Adj. Pass Def: #53 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #66 Sacks: #61
While Mike Martin and Ryan Van Bergen (6 sacks) do return to the 3-man defensive line, the loss of Brandon Graham more than offsets that. Graham recorded 10.5 sacks and an additional 15.5 tackles for loss, and without him the already mediocre pass rush will be severely below par. Speaking of below par, that's what Michigan's rushing defense was last season, and a move to a 3-3-5 might not be the best answer but three linebackers—Obi Ezeh, Jonas Mouton, and Craig Roh—return. They lose #1 tackler Stevie Brown, however. Safety Mike Williams move to the "spur" position, and Jordan Kovacs is back in the secondary but Donovan Warren (4 interceptions) and Brandon Smith are gone and cornerback Troy Woolfolk was severly injured in fall camp and is very likely out for the year. In all 11 of the top 15 tacklers are back for the Wolverines but the loss of Graham harms both the rushing and passing defense.

Kicking Game: Michgan must replace both punter Zoltan Mesko (44.5 average) and Jason Olesnavage (11 of 15 field goals). Two freshman, Will Hagerup and Brandan Gibbons will take over so there is some concern in replacing two solid kickers.
Return Game: Kick return ace Darryl Stonum is back after recording a 25.7 yard average with one touchdown return. Fellow receiver Junior Hemingway returned punts and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #16
Rich Rodriguez has put together two losing seasons at Ann Arbor and many are calling for his head already. Various NCAA investigations about overpractice have only added to the fire. But winning would solve everything. Recruiting was down a bit this year from Michigan's top ten standards and some say it's due to uncertainty with Rodriguez' position. But few teams recruit in the top ten every year and the Wolverines got their share of great players this year, starting with quarterback Devin Gardner who is close to being one of the nation's most elite recruits. About a dozen others are consensus blue chips but one of those, d-back Demar Dorsey, was not admitted due to past law trouble.

2009 Recap Michigan started strong, topping 2008's 3 wins in the first four games. But starting with an overtime loss at Michigan State things began to go wrong. They played Iowa tough but lost but were 5-2 after feasting on Delaware State. But Penn State beat them soundly, as did Illinois who was having a terrible year. In all they lost their last five games and finished a dismal 1-7 in the Big Ten, and a season that looked like a turnaround had gone sour.

Michigan 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	49%	L
9/11	Sat	@	Notre Dame	42%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Massachusetts	66%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	77%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Indiana	59%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	49%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	41%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Penn State	37%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	58%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Purdue	53%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	34%	L
11/27	Sat	@	*Ohio State	25%	L
Projection Straight up: 5-7 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook If Michigan can win the close games this year they'll be fine. If not, they could fall short of a bowl game again and suffer their third straight losing season.

The two tightest games on the slate look like the opener against UConn and rival Michigan State in October. Both are at home, and if you give Michigan a heftier-than-normal home field advantage—not unreasonable—they should win both of those along with five others on the board and go 7-5.

The other five games run the gamut from winnable (Notre Dame and Iowa) to unlikely (Penn State and Wisconsin) and very doubtful (Ohio State).

Since the most winnable are on the road, it doesn't seem likely that Michigan will get more than seven wins this year. And seven wins requires a number of tossup games to go their way. The cumulative projection calls for a 6-6 year and that's where I think Michigan will end up—no longer shut out of a bowl game, but needing a win to avoid another losing season.

55. Nevada Wolf Pack (WAC #3) Polls: USA/Coaches #49

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to SMU 45-10 (Hawaii Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #55 Success: #70 Overall: #55
Another year of impressive rushing gains for Nevada, and more gaudy passing gains for their opponents.

Offense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #20 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #17
Expect more domination via the rushing game from Nevada.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #110    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #84
Though Nevada's passing game isn't what's important, Colin Kaepernick is a capable passer and was very efficient last year, topping 2,000 yards with a 20 to 6 TD:int ratio. The four top receivers are back again, consisting of starters Brandon Wimberly, Tray Session, Chris Wellington, and tight end Virgil Green. Combined, they had 1,688 receiving yards and 14 touchdown receptions. The line allowed just 12 sacks in '09. All things considered if they want to ramp up the passing attack they can.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #1     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #1
Nevada's bread, butter, milk, and eggs is the running game. Last year I boldly predicted that a college football team would have three 1,000 yard rushers for the first time, and I was right—I just picked the wrong team (USC). Incredibly, Vai Taua (1,345 yards), QB Kaepernick (1,183), and Luke Lippincott (1,034) all did the deed, each averaging north of 7 yards per carry and totalling 35 touchdowns. Another four added close to another 1,000 so even as Lippincott departs the cupboard is hardly bare. The O-line that paved the way for all this madness loses two key starters, Alonzo Durham and Kenneth Ackerman while John Bender, Chris Barker, and Steve Haley return. Without Lippincott the Pack won't have three over 1,000 again and they'll see a decline in their per-game yardage, but they were so far ahead that they'll still be #1.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #89 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #96
The Wolf Pack will continue to struggle against the pass.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #43 Adj. Pass Def: #117 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #118 Sacks: #50
The defensive line loses two starters including Kevin Basped who had 9.5 sacks last season. But two return: Zack Mononick, and Dontay Moch who had 6.5 sacks and an additional 13.5 tackles for loss, while Ryan Coulson started several games. Returning at linebacker are Brandon Marshall and James-Michael Johnson who combined for 18 tackles for loss. The secondary loses top tackler Jonathon Amaya and Mo Harvey along with Antoine Thomas. Isaiah Frey and half-time starter Doyle Miller are back but the Pack's weak area will remain thus, particularly with the loss of Basped on the pass rush.

Kicking Game: Punter Brad Langley (41.1 average) and kicker Ricky Drake (6 of 9 field goals) both return as seniors for the Wolf Pack.
Return Game: Mike Ball had an excellent 24.8 yard average on kick returns while Antoine Thompson had a total of 4 punt return yards on 9 attempts. It shouldn't be hard for freshman Rishard Mathews to top that this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #79
Chris Ault's upteenth recruiting class ranks up there with the best in the WAC this year. There's not much agreement about who the best prospects are, but juco DeAndre Boughton is already a starting linebacker for the team.

2009 Recap Before the Wolf Pack got their running game really going they dropped three opening games to Notre Dame, Colorado State, and Missouri. Once they started racking up ground yardage they took off, winning eight in a row until they met up with Boise State and were stopped again. They were minus two of their three 1,000 yard rushers (both the running backs) against SMU and were spanked 45-10 in the Hawaii bowl as their terrible pass D came back to haunt them. In general when they played a good team they lost, but they did beat Idaho (70-45) and Fresno State (52-14).

Nevada 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	E. Washington	66%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Colorado State	61%	W
9/17	Fri	vs.	California	45%	L
9/25	Sat	@	Brigham Young	43%	L
10/2	Sat	@	UNLV	59%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	84%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Hawaii	61%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Utah State	59%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Idaho	47%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Fresno State	47%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	88%	W
11/26	Fri	vs.	*Boise State	23%	L
12/4	Sat	@	*Louisiana Tech	47%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-6 Cumulative: 7-6

2010 Outlook Nevada plays 13 games this season and can really only be counted out of one of them, Boise State—and they have played the Broncos very tough in the past.

Between the opening home contests against I-AA Eastern Washington and Colorado State to a four-game stretch consisting of UNLV and WAC cellar-dwellers, to a home date with New Mexico State, there are seven should-be wins on the schedule.

The cumulative projection also works out to 7-6, given the odds of getting an upset/being upset here and there.

But despite this agreement, 7 is likely to be a minimum win total for the Wolf Pack in 2010. Those seven wins are fairly solid, and five other games are close to wins. Maybe they won't beat Cal at home, or BYU on the road, but they also have Idaho, Fresno State, and Louisiana Tech (all on the road) to choose from. Out of those five, they'll almost certainly get one or two wins (or maybe three, but lose one of the games they should win). So I'd look for an 8-5 or 9-4 season from Nevada this year. It's still possible that they could falter and go 6-7, but it's just as likely that they get 10 wins. Expect a strong winning season from the Wolf Pack if everything goes well this year.

August 22, 2010 at 05:05 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #56 to #60: Wake Forest, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, Baylor, Colorado

This installment covers teams from #56 to #60. To see the full list, click here.

56. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (ACC #9; Atlantic #5)

2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #53 Success: #65 Overall: #53
Wake Forest moves on without Riley Skinner at quarterback.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #51 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #79
The loss of 4-year starting QB Riley Skinner hurts the offense.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #27    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #61
Riley Skinner's senior campaign was a strong one. He completed 66% of his passes for 3,160 yards and 26 touchdowns. Ex-wide receiver Skylar Jones is slated to take over for him. That alone should suggest that a significant drop in production is likely, but a full complement of receivers is available: Marshall Williams, Devon Brown, and Chris Givens each had over 600 receiving yards and combined for 20 touchdown receptions, while RB Josh Adams had 28 catches. The offensive line allowed 28 sacks last year and loses three starter, however. Between a new quarterback, a weaker line, and a move toward a run-oriented offense Wake's passing game will fall from near top 25 quality to somewhere around average for the FBS.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #73     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #76
Josh Adams and Brandon Pendergrass combined for 940 yards last season and both are back. #3 Kevin Harris departs but receivers Brown and Givens had nearly 250 yards between them. With nearly everyone back and the employment of a run-option offense the numbers could get much better. The offensive line loses 4-year starter Jeff Griffin and 3-year starters Chris DeGeare and Barrett McMillin. Russell Nenon and Joe Looney return, but the line will inevitably be weaker and the switch to the new system might not be without some struggle.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #48 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #48
A bit weaker in front and middle but a bit stronger in the secondary, the defense should be roughly the same when all is said and done.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #69 Adj. Pass Def: #56 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #40 Sacks: #39
The defensive line returns just one true starter, Tristan Dorty, though Kyle Wilbur should be at full health too. John Russell's team-leading 4.5 sacks will be missed. Four linebackers took starts in the three positions, and Matt Woodlief and Hunter Haynes are back but #1 tackler Dominique Midgett is gone along with Jonathan Jones. The secondary was competent last season and could be better still this year. Brandon Ghee (8 pass breakups) is gone but Cyhl Quarles, Kenny Okoro (11 pass breakups), Alex Frye, and Josh Bush have things covered.

Kicking Game: Punter Shane Popham (38.9 average) and placekicker Jimmy Newman (11 of 17 FG) both return.
Return Game: WR Devon Brown handled punts and averaged just 5.1 per return, while Lovell Jackson took the majority of kickoffs for a strong 24.1 average. Both are back.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #77
Jim Grobe continues to build the program that he turned around over the last decade. Recruiting to Wake Forest still isn't easy and this year's class ranks low in the ACC, but things are a lot better than they used to be. There are no consensus blue chips in the 2010 class but more than half of the players are considered above-average (3-star) than average, which used to be Wake's lot.

2009 Recap It was another rough year in the ACC for the Deacons. An early loss to Baylor was disappointing, but a controversial win over Stanford looked more impressive as the season went on. Unfortunately as the season went on Wake lost a lot of games, starting with an overtime loss to Boston College. Though they beat N.C. State and Maryland early to stand 4-2 they dropped five straight, four to ACC foes and one to Navy (13-10). They came within an inch of beating both Miami and Georgia Tech in that stretch but had to settle for a season-ending victory over Duke.

Wake Forest 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Presbyterian	97%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	*Duke	54%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Stanford	31%	L
9/25	Sat	@	*Florida State	31%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	37%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	Navy	52%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	22%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Maryland	46%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	43%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	49%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	38%	L
11/27	Sat	@	Vanderbilt	56%	W
Projection Straight up: 4-8 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook The loss of Skinner has fans wondering how the team will do without him. The likely answer: in the end, probably about the same as last year.

The opener against weak FCS team Presbyterian is a joke, and though Chris Givens is suspended through the Duke game they should beat the Blue Devils at home. Three tough games follow, including a payback game at Stanford. Wake plays Navy yet again, and is 2-2 and this game should be close as well but we'll give them a home victory.

The next five games are tough though several will be close. Until they visit Vanderbilt though they might not get another win. Though that only adds up to a 4-8 season, with all the close games considered they should be about 6-6.

There is really only one guaranteed win on the slate so if things go very wrong—the new quarterback is awful and nothing works on offense—they might end up like Maryland last season. The upside is harder to calculate but it's hard to see them getting much more than seven wins. Based on this I'm thinking that 4-8, or maybe 5-7, is where the Deacon will end up this year.

57. Idaho Vandals (WAC #4)

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Bowling Green 43-42 (Humanitarian) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #94 Success: #67 Overall: #93
The offense lags a bit but the defense will be a lot better—or at least should be.

Offense (4 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #42 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #52
A weaker offensive line and the loss of their top back and receiver offset the returning talent at QB.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #16    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #20
Idaho's passing game was one of the nation's best, even when adjusted for their often-weak opposition (#12 in raw yardage, #16 corrected). Nathan Enderle and Brian Reader combined for 3,707 yards throught the air. Enderle had 22 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions; backup Reader had 6 and 6. Both quarterbacks return, Enderle for his senior year and Reader his junior. Top receiver Max Komar (1,052 yards and 11 TDs) is gone but the next six most prolific receivers are back, each of whom had at least 10 catches and 100 yards. Among them are tight end Daniel Hardy (691 yards), Maurice Shaw (666 yds.), Preston Davis (460), and Eric Greenwood (401). But the reason the passing game will likely decline is the offensive line; it gave up 25 sacks last year and that number may increase as four starters are replaced.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #70     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #97
De'Maundray Woolridge nearly had a 1,000 yard season with the Vandals and scored an amazing 18 touchdowns. His loss hurts but he wasn't the only capable back: Princeton McCarty rushed for 680 yards and Deonte' Jackson 387. McCarty's average (5.9) was comparable to Woolridge's (5.7) while Jackson lagged (4.4) but Jackson had 1,175 in 2008 so both are in the running for the starting job this year, and both are sure to get their opportunities. It will be a rougher road this season however, as the offensive line loses a lot of its talent. First and foremost Mike Iupati, a 3-year starter and 1st round NFL draft choice; two 2-year starters, Bryce Sinclair and Adam Juratovac; and starting center Irvin Stevens. Matt Cleveland is back, as is Tyrone Novikoff a half-time starter in 2008. Needless to say the line will be weaker and ground production will be much harder to come by, even for the talented Vandal running backs.

Defense (10 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #115 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #56
Idaho can be better only one way this year: with a dramatically better defense. And they may have it.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #79 Adj. Pass Def: #118 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #115 Sacks: #115
Idaho's entire defensive line is back this year. Not that they were great last year, as they were poor at stopping the running and terrible at spearheading any sort of pass rush. But with Aaron Lavaias and Jonah Satakara (4 sacks each) back along with Andre Ferguson and Michael Cosgrove, the Vandals now have a veteran line that should make big strides in both areas. The full linebacker corps returns, too: JoJo Dickson, Robert Siavii, and Paul Senescall are also all upperclassmen. That makes four seniors and three juniors in the Vandal front seven, all returning starters. The real problem last year was pass defense, where Idaho was worthless. Things will improve a lot as three starters return: #1 tackler Shiloh Keo (113 tackles, 3 interceptions), Kenneth Patten, and Issac Butts and Aaron Grymes who started half-time each. In all 14 of Idaho's top 15 tacklers are back from last season.

Kicking Game: Kicker Trey Farquhar hit 13 of 19 field goals last year (long of 54) while Bobby Cowan averaged 43 yards per punt. Both were freshmen last year so the Vandals should be set in this department for years.
Return Game: Safety Shiloh Keo did a solid job as punt returner, averaging 10.2 yards per attempt. Kama Bailey did well returning kickoffs (20.6) but Justin Veltung was the star, averaging 25 per return and taking one back for a touchdown. All three return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #88
Robb Akey persevered through 1-11 and 2-10 seasons before last year's breakthrough. This year's recruiting class is a marked improvement from 2009, perhaps because of that strong season. Unlike last year the 2010 class has a handful of players with above-average potential, among them offensive linemen Sam Tupua and Mike Marboe both of whom should contribute heavily this year.

2009 Recap Idaho surprised nearly everyone in 2009. Beating New Mexico State in the opener wasn't such a huge deal, and losing to Washington probably confirmed that they weren't for real. But then the Vandals went on a five-game winning streak and were bowl-eligible before some of the better teams in the country! They came back down to earth though, losing to Nevada 70-45 and losing three straight at the end of the regular season. They put on a great show against Bowling Green, demonstrating their offensive prowess and defensive ineptitude in a 43-42 win in the Humanitarian Bowl, showing Boise State-like pluck in going for a winning 2-point conversion.

Idaho 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	North Dakota	80%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Nebraska	25%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	UNLV	65%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Colorado State	56%	W
10/2	Sat	@	Western Michigan	63%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Louisiana Tech	47%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	84%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Hawaii	60%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Nevada	53%	W
11/12	Fri	vs.	*Boise State	23%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Utah State	53%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Fresno State	46%	L
12/4	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	84%	W
Projection Straight up: 9-4 Cumulative: 7-6

2010 Outlook For Idaho to have the kind of season I'm forecasting below, one thing has to happen: the defense has to make considerable gains. That's easier said than done, but if it happens the Vandals will have another great year, maybe even better than last season.

The projection at the left calls for a 9-4 season: six solid wins, three close wins, two close losses, and two almost certain losses.

The certain losses are Nebraska and Boise State; the close losses Louisiana Tech and Fresno State.

The solid wins are North Dakota, UNLV, Western Michigan, New Mexico State, Hawaii, and San Jose State. Winning just these would leave Idaho 6-7 and one game shy of bowl-eligibility.

The close wins are Colorado State, Nevada, and Utah State. Win all five close games and Idaho is 11-2.

The cumulative projection calls for a 7-6 year. With six solid wins available I think that's a bit low, and if Idaho splits all five close games they will be 8-5 or 9-4. Because this scenario depends upon a pretty drastic upgrade in the team's defense, I'll go with 8-5 and they'll need to win a bowl game to improve the Win column. The Vandals do return 10 starters on defense but I'll want to see proof that they're really a changed team on D.

58. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (WAC #5)

2009 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #73 Success: #96 Overall: #75
Not only is Louisiana Tech a lot better this year, they underachieved big time last year and should have an excellent year in the WAC.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #73 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #55
New schemes on offense will result in an even stronger passing attack than suggested below.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #103    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #79
Louisiana Tech was not a passing team in 2009, but Ross Jenkins was actually quite efficient last season. Though he barely topped 2,000 passing yards against mostly easy competition, he had 20 touchdowns vs. just 6 interceptions and completed a decent 59% of his attempts. That might not be enough for the senior to keep his job, though, as Steve Ensminger may be the favorite option of new offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. Dennis Morris, by far the top receiver at 623 yards and 12 TDs is gone, but three of the next four including Cruz Williams and R.P. Stuart are back; both are suspended indefinitely as the season starts so the cupboard could potentially be bare. The offensive line allowed 27 sacks last season but that should improve a lot as only one starter is gone from the 2-deep. With a new pass-first emphasis the production will go up regardless of the targets.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #47     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #41
Daniel Porter was the star of the offense last season as he gained 1,132 yards and scored 11 touchdowns. He departs which leaves a big hole in the running game, but there are plently who can fill it as four who rushed for 150 or more yards are back and Lennon Creer from Tennessee (388 yards in '08) becomes eligible. Receiver Phillip Livas (249 yds.) and ex-WR Lyle Fitte (96 yds.) both averaged over 10 yards per carry in limited action. The offensive line loses only Ben Harris this year, while four senior starters return: Lon Roberts, Jared Miles, Rob McGill, and Cudahy Harmon. The open slot will go to part-time starter Kevin Saia and Kris Cavitt, who started half-time in 2008. The line should be much stronger and despite losing Porter overall rushing yardage could up—if the new offensive scheme is at all conducive to it.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #68 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #62
The Bulldogs defense probably won't see big improvement or decline in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #59 Adj. Pass Def: #72 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #39 Sacks: #78
The Bulldog defensive line returns just Matt Broha (4 sacks) and part-time starter Mason Hitt while losing star D'Anthony Smith (3.5 sacks). The situation is better at linebacker however where #1 tackler Adrien Cole returns with #3 tackler Jay Dudley. #2 Tank Calais moves the the secondary, where he's joined by Tery Carter and part-time starters Josh Victorian and Olajuwon Paige but among the losses are Deon Young who led the team with 4 interceptions. The shuffling around preserves some strength in the secondary and keeps the linebacker corps relatively strong though the D-line may be weaker.

Kicking Game: Punter Cade Glasgow averaged just 37.3 yards per punt while Matt Nelson made 12 of 16 field goals. Both are back.
Return Game: Phillip Livas made his mark as a receiver and running back last year but scored all his points as a return man. He averaged 13.4 yards per punt return and 27 per kickoff return, scoring a touchdown on each. Back for his senior season opponents should expect more of the same from him.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #104
New coach Sonny Dykes comes from Arizona by way of Texas Tech and tellingly has hired ex-Troy spread guru Tony Franklin to head the offense. In the coaching transition the recruiting class wasn't great, ranking near the bottom of the WAC. D-back Ryan Williams is probably the best of the bunch, but the biggest catch would have been ex-Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli, who was rumored to be looking at Louisiana Tech as a possible tranfer destination before Mississippi stepped up. Another quarterback, redshirt freshman Doak Raulston headed to Tennessee with coach Derek Dooley.

2009 Recap Coach Dooley built the program back into a winner in his second year here but they slipped in his third. The Bulldogs were 4-8 with wins over FCS team Nicholls State, 6-7 Hawaii, 3-10 New Mexico State, and 2-10 San Jose State. They did, however, put together perhaps the most impressive 5-game losing streak of any team last year, falling to Utah State by 2 points, 8-5 Idaho by 1, losing to undefeated Boise State by just 10, to LSU 24-16, and almost beating Fresno State (lost 30-28). Four of those games were road games. This is how a team with a Strength Power Rating of #73 finished at #96 in the Success ratings.

LA Tech 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Grambling State	83%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Texas A&M	33%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Navy	52%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	52%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Hawaii	60%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Utah State	59%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	53%	W
10/26	Tue	@	*Boise State	17%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Fresno State	52%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*New Mexico State	79%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*San Jose State	78%	W
12/4	Sat	vs.	*Nevada	53%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The Bulldogs may find out this year what would have happened if they'd won all those close games last season. Because they're the favorite in five very close home games, meaning they could have a great year.

Grambling State is the gimme, and Hawaii, Utah State, New Mexico State, and San Jose State look like strong wins giving them at least a 5-7 mark on the year. Then it gets interesting.

Navy and Southern Miss at both close in September, then Idaho in October, Fresno State in November and Nevada in December could all be close wins. All five are at home, otherwise they'd be the underdog in all five.

The cumulative projection is a lot more conservative, giving them seven wins, still easily good enough for a bowl game.

Texas A&M and Boise State appear to be out of reach, so 10-2 is really the team's ceiling. Giving them the easiest 5 and splitting the tough games 3-2 yields an 8-4 season which is their likely result. With the new offense and so many exciting games at home Bulldog fans should have an enjoyable year, particularly if the "Straight up" projection comes true.

59. Baylor Bears (Big Twelve #7; South #5)

2009 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #72 Success: #82 Overall: #73
The Bears try to escape the 4-8 trap with QB Robert Griffin back.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #85 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #64
Robert Griffin returns to re-energize the deflated Bear offense.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #35    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #26
Robert Griffin was beginning to put up stellar numbers—completing 65%, 4 TDs, no interceptions—when he tore his ACL game three and redshirted. Nick Florence and Blake Szymanski took over and combined for 7 TDs and 14 INTs. Florence finished with 1,786 passing yards, giving the team close to 3,000 total; he returns and will make a solid backup to Griffin who reboots his sophomore year. Top receiver Kendall Wright (740 yards, 4 TDs) is back and while they lose David Gettis, Ernest Smith, and tight end Justin Akers (1,284 combined), starter Lanear Sampson returns with three others who had over 100 yards including 6' 6" Willie Jefferson who joins Brad Taylor at tight end. The O-line remains an issue so there may be some wrinkles to be ironed out but Griffin should pick up where he left off last season and Baylor should have a top 25-level passing attack.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #99     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #69
While the passing game still thrived (at least in yardage) without Griffin the running game suffered immensely, as his total fell from 843 in '08 to just 77 last year. He probably won't reach his former totals as the coaching staff looks to emphasize his passing and minimize the risk of re-injury, but he'll be a constant threat to reach the end zone. In his absence Jay Finley led with 370 while Jarred Salubi had 298 and averaged 6 yards a carry. Terrance Ganaway (200) averaged just 2.9. The offensive line should be comparable to last year's line, which isn't such a great thing. They lose two 3-year starters in J.D. Walton and James Barnard, but three starters—Danny Watkins, Philip Blake, and Ivory Wade—are back. With pretty much all their ground-gainers back along with Griffin's return the Bears should make a leap toward respectability in the rushing department.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #58 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #78
The Bears' defense will be less effective this year as stars at linebacker and safety depart.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #97 Adj. Pass Def: #32 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #33 Sacks: #65
The defensive line loses two starters but between Phil Taylor, Zac Scotton, and Tracy Robertson, there is good experience there. At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Joe Pawelek (109 tackles) and #3 Antonio Jones while #4 Antonio Johnson is back. Tim Atchison and Chance Casey return to the secondary which loses Jordan Lake and Jeremy Williams. Look for a slip in the Bears' strong pass D and an overall decline as they lose four of their top five tacklers.

Kicking Game: Punter Derek Epperson averaged 44.8 yards per punt but netted only 35.9. He's back, as is kicker Ben Parks who only hit 4 of 8 field goals last year. He lost the placekicking job to Dary Stone (5 of 6 FGs) who departs, and freshman Aaron Jones may beat him out this season.
Return Game: Terrance Williams averaged a great 24.1 yards per kickoff return; he'll be a starting wide receiver this year and Mikail Baker may reclaim his return duties. Krys Buerck, another wide receiver, handled punts and averaged 6.5 yards per return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #39
Art Briles has created excitement in the Baylor program even while going just 8-16 in two years. Certainly Griffin has had a lot to do with that. This year's recruiting class is another good one, ranking in the middle of the Big Twelve pack. D-back Ahmad Dixon is probably the consensus blue chip in the group, and Briles even brings in another Robert Griffin—though this one is a 6' 6", 350 lb. offensive lineman.

2009 Recap Things were looking up for the Bears despite an early loss to Connecticut. They'd defeated Wake Forest and had a take-it-easy game with Division I-AA Northwestern State to look forward to. But that game spelled the end of their great hopes and dreams as Robert Griffin suffered a torn ACL. They won that game 68-13 and beat Kent State the next week, but knew there would be no competing in the Big Twelve without him. Even with him they stood little chance against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, or Texas. But they would have finished better than 1-7 in conference play. The Bears beat only Missouri to finish 4-8 for a second straight season.

Baylor 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Sam Houston St.	89%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Buffalo	67%	W
9/18	Sat	@	TCU	17%	L
9/25	Sat	@	Rice	62%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	59%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	32%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Colorado	48%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	57%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Texas	30%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	49%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	39%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	26%	L
Projection Straight up: 5-7 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook With Griffin's return the offense is juiced, but it comes in a year where the defense will be less effective. So while they should finally surpass 4-8 a bowl game is not guaranteed.

Both early home games should be wins, then they face TCU on the road, a near-certain loss. Rice should be a win, as should Kansas at home and the Bears ought to be 4-1 to start if things go to plan.

The rest of the Big Twelve schedule is rough, of course. Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma are probable losses, Kansas State a probable win, and Colorado and Oklahoma State tossups.

Picking winners and losers from the board gives a pretty solid 5-7 season, that is, not too much chance of falling back to 4-8. Splitting the Colorado and OK State games would be all it takes to become bowl eligible at 6-6, which is what the cumulative projection comes to. Even if Griffin catches fire it's hard to see them going past 7 or 8 wins, since there are so many good teams on the slate. Just staying healthy is all he has to do and with a bit of luck Baylor will see the post-season for the first time since 1994.

60. Colorado Buffaloes (Big Twelve #8; North #3)

2009 Results: Record: 3-9 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #76 Success: #100 Overall: #76
Colorado tries again for the turnaround year that the program desperately needs.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #75 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #39
The O-line will have to do a much better job this year—the entire offense is counting on it.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #41    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #24
Some say that when you have two quarterbacks you have no quarterbacks, but more and more it's looking like Colorado has one quarterback (Tyler Hansen) and a very experienced backup (Cody Hawkins). They combined last year for 2,717 yards, 18 TDs and 18 interceptions, but Hansen is more mobile, was more accurate (56% to 51%), had more yards and the better TD:int ratio (8:7). The point here is not whether either of them is that good, but that they will be improved this year, particularly Hansen who twice tried to redshirt and has yet to play a full season. The receiver situation looked good until #2 receiver Marquis Simas (585 yards) transferred, leaving only one of the top four back as tight ends Riar Geer and Patrick Dempsey (556 combined) depart. Top receiver Scotty McNight (893 yards, 6 TDs) is back and transfer Toney Clemons comes in from Michigan, but they'll have to develop some of the greener talent. Luckily the offensive line, which gave up a staggering 44 sacks (#114 in nation adj.), should be perhaps the most improved in the country and afford the QBs time to find their targets.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #104     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #84
The offensive line is also crucial to progress in the rushing game. Most of the production is back, led by Rodney Stewart (804 yards, 9 TDs). Demetrius Sumler (128 yards) is gone, as is Darrell Scott but he only ran for 95 yards so only his once-great potential will be missed. Brian Lockridge had 205 two years ago and could be the main backup after missing last year. The offensive line will no doubt do a much better job of opening holes as all five starters—and then some—return. Nate Solder, Ryan Miller, Keenan Stevans, Ethan Adkins, and Bryce Givens are back, while the line also boasts Blake Behrens and Matthew Bahr who started in 2008. As with the quarterbacks, the point is not that this O-line will be great, just that it will be far better than it was last season. Thus the pathetic rushing game of last season will still be below average, but out of the laughable zone. Just cutting down on sacks allowed will help Hansen's rushing numbers; he would easily have been the #2 rusher on the team if sack yardage were excluded.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #72 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #83
Key losses hurt the defense overall but the front line should be stronger.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #73 Adj. Pass Def: #22 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #58 Sacks: #29
The Buffaloes play a lot of a 3-3-5 and all three of the defensive lineman in this formation return: Marquez Herrod (6 sacks), Curtis Cunningham, and Will Pericak. B.J. Beatty (2.5 sacks) returns at linebacker but Jeff Smart and Marcus Burton (6.5 sacks combined) do not, so the Buffs' high pass rush rating may slip a bit, especially since cornerback Cha'pelle Brown (#1 tackler, 4 sacks) is gone. So is safety Benjamin Burney but overall the secondary should be okay with three starters back, as Anthony Perkins returns with Jalil Brown and Jimmy Smith who combined for a dizzying 25 pass breakups. Only the linebacker corps looks questionable, but with five of the top eight tacklers gone the Buffs lost some of their top players.

Kicking Game: Kicker Aric Goodman hit just 10 of 18 field goals last season, while punter Matt DeLallo averaged just 38.6 per punt with a 31.9 net. Goodman is back and Zach Grossnickle takes over at punter. This is a weak area for the Buffs.
Return Game: Darrell Scott returned kickoffs (a great 26.9 average) before he left the team so fellow RB Brian Lockridge took over and averaged 23.1 with one touchdown return. Meanwhile #5 receiver Jason Espinoza fielded punts for just a 3.1 yard average. Both are back this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #64
Dan Hawkins has been on the hot seat almost from his first game when the Buffs fell to Montana State and finished 2-10. Three losing seasons later and it's only gotten worse. It's always bad when a struggling coach starts his son at quarterback, especially when the QB and the team do poorly. Last year Hawkins practically promised a 10-win season and of course didn't deliver. Recruiting hasn't been very great lately—the Buffs are maybe 10th in the Big Twelve this year, similar to last year—and even when they do get a super blue chip like Darrell Scott it goes wrong. Furthermore, the recent Academic Progress Rate reports penalized the football team four scholarships. What has gone right for Hawkins? Well, they got their best recruit this year by way of UCLA when blue chip wide receiver Paul Richardson was kicked off the Bruin squad along with two other freshman football players. He'll be eligible to play this season.

2009 Recap Since they play in a tough Big Twelve conference, the Buffs, when weak, aren't expected to have great results. But knowing this it means they have to take care of business in the pre-conference season. When they don't, years like 2009 can result. CU fell to both Colorado State (23-17) and Toledo (54-38) before getting their first win (Wyoming, 24-0). With two of the three best prospects for wins out of the way, the rest of the road was bound to be ugly, and it was. The Buffs upset Kansas at home 34-30 and later confounded Texas A&M, but they were playing the role of spoiler. They nearly struck again against Oklahoma State and Nebraksa but came up short and finished 3-9.

Colorado 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	N	Colorado State	59%	W
9/11	Sat	@	California	38%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Hawaii	66%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	Georgia	42%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Missouri	34%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	53%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	31%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	19%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Kansas	52%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	58%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	56%	W
11/26	Fri	@	*Nebraska	24%	L
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 5-7

2010 Outlook Colorado has a real chance this year to get back on the bowl game track, but they can't let the early opportunities go by. They have to beat both Colorado State and Hawaii pre-conference. California and Georgia would be cake and really show the program is back on top—but I don't think it's there yet so 2-2 will have to do. Avoiding 1-3 or 0-4 is the mission.

In the Big Twelve they probably won't beat Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, or Nebraska. That leaves four very winnable games, three of them at home. Win those and the Buffs are 6-6 and bowl bound for the first time since 2007.

The cumulative projection rounds down to five wins and since the "win" games are closer than the "loss" games, there's a good chance of a 5-7 year instead. The game at Kansas is going to be the lynchpin, I think. Colorado will probably win a close game there and become bowl eligible two weeks later against Kansas State. That's assuming they defeated Colorado State in the opener, of course. Otherwise it will be on to Nebraska with their bowl hopes on the line. Since they probably don't like that scenario it's best that they take care of business in game one.

August 22, 2010 at 06:46 AM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 19, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #61 to #65: Northern Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, Middle Tennessee, Tennessee

This installment covers teams from #61 to #65. To see the full list, click here.

61. Northern Illinois Huskies (MAC #1; West #1) Polls: USA/Coaches #49

2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Lost to USF 27-3 (International Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #77 Success: #76 Overall: #79
While the offense improves, it's the defense that's going to win games for the Huskies this year.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #87 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #73
A bit less rushing but a lot more passing should spur the Huskie offense.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #111    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #89
Everyone's worried about whether Chandler Harnish will be healthy this year, but that misses the point. Northern Illinois' passing game won't be great whether he plays the whole year or not. Harnish had just 1,670 yards and 11 touchdowns last season while hobbled; if healthy the team should make a moderate jump in production, but that's just as much because of the returning targets. Five of six significant pass catchers are back including leading receiver Landon Cox (535 yards, 4 TDs). The offensive line will afford solid protection (15 sacks, #35 in nation adjusted) to whomever gets the job, be it Harnish, backup Demarcus Grady, or a newcomer.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #40     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #49
The real key to the Huskie offense is of course the running game, and Chad Spann had a great 2009. He barely topped 1,000 yards but had a stunning 19 touchdown runs. Backup Me'co Brown (645 yards) is gone and the #3 and #4 rushers were QBs Grady and Harnish (559 combined). The Huskies will to JUCO star Jasmin Hopkins to play a big role. The offensive line loses two stars, both 4-year starters, in Eddie Amanski and Jason Onyebuagu but Trevor Olson returns with Joe Pawlak and Adam Kiel. The loss of Brown and the two offensive line starters mean that the Huskie running game will be a bit down but certainly not out.

Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #66 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #33
An already bound-for-improvement defense gets a surprise late returnee.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #72 Adj. Pass Def: #35 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #78 Sacks: #59
The NIU defense got a hugh boost after spring when Jake Coffman decided to return to the program after all. Coffman led the team with 8.5 sacks and added 5 tackles for loss and broke up 5 passes, and his return bolsters an already strengthened defensive line. They lose Brandon Bice (5 sacks) but return D.J. Pirkle and half-time starters Sean Progar (6 sacks) and Brian Lawson and get 2008 starter Mike Krauss back from medical redshirt as well, meaning the rushing defense should be much better this year. At linebacker they lose Corey Hanson but Pat Schiller and Alex Kube return. And the secondary is fully stocked from last year, with #1 tackler Tracy Wilson and Mike Sobol at safety and Chris Smith and Patrick George at corner, looking for a much better performance on pass defense. With Coffman back they have 7 of the top 8 tacklers from last year.

Kicking Game: Mike Salerno departs after making 19 of 25 field goals and sharing punting duties (39.2 ave). Josh Wilbur (40.5) takes over full-time at punter while freshman Matthew Sims or sophomore Alex Faust will be the new placekicker.
Return Game: Backup safety Tommy Davis will continue to be the featured return man after averaging 24.1 per kickoff return with one touchdown and 8.0 per punt return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #93
Jerry Kill's 3rd recruiting class ranks around 3rd to 5th in the MAC and is similar to last year's group in ranking. They do have two noteable JUCO transfers in QB Casey Weston and RB Jasmin Hopkins, who led the JUCO nation in yardage at their respective positions.

2009 Recap Northern Illinois almost stunned Wisconsin last year, losing just 28-20. They went into Purdue though and there they got a win over a Big Ten team by a nearly identical score, 28-21. A then-shocking loss to Idaho (34-31) and lost a heartbreaker to Toledo, 20-19 but after four wins in a row they were 7-3. But they lost at Ohio and with it the division title, then fell to East champ Central Michigan and were shut down by South Florida in the International Bowl.

N. Illinois 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	@	Iowa State	50%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	North Dakota	77%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Illinois	50%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Minnesota	44%	L
10/2	Sat	@	*Akron	65%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Temple	53%	W
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Buffalo	66%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Central Michigan	55%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Western Michigan	62%	W
11/9	Tue	vs.	*Toledo	76%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Ball State	59%	W
11/26	Fri	@	*Eastern Michigan	76%	W
Projection Straight up: 10-2 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook This year the Huskies should win the West division title and likely the MAC title.

Despite starting with four of five on the road Northern Illinois should emerge 3-2 or 4-1. And if they are 5-0, they have a chance of running the table and going 12-0.

That's a bit doubtful, as the cumulative projection calls for a 7-5 year. Even if they win the first five it would still call for just 9 or 10 wins, given the uncertainty of beating teams like Temple, Central Michigan, and even Ball State.

But here the Huskies are the favorite against everyone except Iowa State and Minnesota, making those the key games of the season. With ra oad game in-state foe Illinois sandwiched between, I don't think they'll be looking past anybody early one.

All in all there are about five games that could go either way, and that doesn't consider upsets, so the 10-2 straight-up projection is a bit optimistic. NIU split the close games last year and if they do again they'll be about 9-3 in 2009.

62. Virginia Cavaliers (ACC #10; Coastal #5)

2009 Results: Record: 3-9 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #58 Success: #81 Overall: #58
New head coach Mike London tries to get the ball rolling again at Virginia.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #72 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #86
With a new system coming in, things will change but the results may or may not be different.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #93    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #98
Jameel Sewell only threw for 1,848 yards, so making up his production through the air isn't such a daunting proposition. Particularly when you have a quarterback who threw for over 2,000 yards the previous season. Marc Verica wasn't used much last year and had a big problem with interceptions before, so it's not all smooth sailing. He'll have top receiver Kris Burd (413 yards) back, and though the next three depart there are three others who have over 100 yards including tight end Joe Torchia as the ball was evenly-distributed last year. The offensive line allowed 41 sacks (#116) last year and Verica might have to get used to it, another reason the passing game probably won't advance this season.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #96     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #105
Rashawn Jackson and Mikell Simpson combined for 847 yards in the Cavaliers' paltry rushing attack. They're both gone, and the next two were QB Sewell and #2 wide receiver Vic Hall and they both depart. That leaves Torrey Mack (73 yds), Dominique Wallace (49), or Keith Payne (253 yards in 2007) as your returning options. The offensive line won't make great strides with 4-year starter Will Barker and 2-year starter Jack Shields gone. B.J. Cabbell, Austin Pasztor, and Landon Bradley return. With a new head coach will come a new offensive system, and that's the only hope for a big increase in ground production.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #35 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #40
Virginia's defense wasn't bad at all in 2009, and shouldn't get considerably better or worse.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #78 Adj. Pass Def: #20 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #26 Sacks: #51
The Cavaliers' main problem on defense was stopping the run, and with three starters returning to the new 4-man defensive line they've got a head start in tackling that problem. Juniors Matt Conrath, Nick Jenkins, and former linebacker Cam Johnson all return. Losing Nate Collins (6 sacks) will hurt the pass rush, however. At linebacker they lose two starters and Johnson moves to the D-line, but they only have three slots to fill and Steve Greer (#1 tackler) is back. Rodney McLeod and Ras-I Dowling are back on the secondary and with 2008 starter Corey Mosley still around they should keep the pass defense ranking high.

Kicking Game: Punter Jimmy Howell returns after averaging 40.1 yards a kick, while Robert Randolph had an excellent year hitting 17 of 19 field goal attempts.
Return Game: Cornerback Chase Minnifield averaged just 4.4 yards per punt return but did much better on kickoffs at 23.3. Perry Jones may be the main kickoff return man this year as Minnifield takes on a starting position on defense.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #81
Al Groh was on the red hot seat in 2007 but a 9-4 record (with many close wins) saved him. But back to back 5-7 and 3-9 seasons pushed him out, and Mike London takes over this year. The recruiting class he put together, like many in transition years, is well below last season's, and ranks 2nd to last in the ACC. There is one consensus blue chip in 6' 7" 350 lb. offensive lineman Morgan Moses, who spend a year at Fork Union Military Academy to get his grades up.

2009 Recap Al Groh's final season didn't start off well...or finish well for that matter. Losing to William & Mary 26-14 at home, and starting 0-3 was bad enough. But the team actually came alive, beating North Carolina 16-3 and evening their record at 3-3. But they dropped six straight games to finish 3-9 and that was all she wrote for Groh.

Virginia 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Richmond	55%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Southern Cal	38%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	VMI	88%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	36%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	29%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	32%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	82%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	31%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Duke	48%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	53%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Boston College	38%	L
11/27	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	21%	L
Projection Straight up: 4-8 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook The outlook is a little bit better this year even if the team isn't as good. Though Richmond is comparable to William & Mary from last year, it should probably be a win and if not, Virginia Military on the 25th will be. In-between they head to USC for an all-but-certain loss despite the highish odds given here.

Then FSU, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina are all pretty certain losses, followed by another "gimme" against Eastern Michigan at home (whoever made this schedule knew what he was doing). Miami will be tough, but they should win one or the other of Duke and Maryland before two more tough ACC games close out the year.

That gives them four wins, or five or six (rounded up) by the cumulative projection. The easiest way to five wins is to beat both Duke and Maryland, but knowing Virginia they'll lose both but upset two other teams on the ACC schedule. Even if they win both, *and* get an upset somewhere to finish 6-6 they won't go to a bowl game due to the double-FCS strike against their schedule. Whether they win 4, 5, or 6 the Cavaliers will be staying home again in December.

63. Maryland Terrapins (ACC #8; Atlantic #4)

2009 Results: Record: 2-10 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #82 Success: #91 Overall: #82
Though they return the Terrapins may make a comeback this year.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #89 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #80
A healthy Da'rel Scott is the key to offensive improvement for the Terps.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #64    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #67
Departing quarterback Chris Turner threw for a decent 2,000+ yards while completing 59%. Not the hardest act to follow, as Turner always had about the same amount of interceptions as touchdowns (10 each last year), and Jamaar Robinson (54%, 459 yards, 2 TDs) got some valuable experience as backup last year, starting a few games. Miami, Ohio transfer Clay Belton is another option but his numbers were tepid there. Maryland does have a good stable of receivers as the top four return: Torrey Smith (824 yards) and Adrian Cannon (468) are back with Ronnie Tyler and RB Davin Meggett. Pressure may continue to be a problem as the Terps gave up 36 sacks last year. In all, the passing game shouldn't be expected to carry the team but the receivers are excellent.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #98     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #77
Top rushers Da'rel Scott, Davin Meggett, and QB Robinson combined for 992 yards last season, certainly not a stellar number but considering that Scott was injured and had 1,133 in 2008 there is a lot of upside here. The offensive line loses two important starters, Phil Costa and Bruce Campbell, while Paul Pinegar, Andrew Gonnella, and R.J. Dill return. #5 rusher Celeb Porzel transferred but with the top four back they are in good shape. Scott might not match his '08 total but should greatly exceed '09's number if he stays healthy.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #74 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #70
Despite personnel losses in the D-line and secondary the heart of the defense is back at linebacker.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #60 Adj. Pass Def: #93 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #89 Sacks: #57
Maryland must replace three of four starters on the defensive line, meaning their average rushing defense may get even worse. The pass rush (again, average) might not suffer as the three combined for just five sacks. A.J. Francis is the sole returnee to the line, but there's help right behind him at linebacker. Alex Wujciak (#1 tackler with 131), Adrian Moten (6 sacks), and Demetrius Hartsfield are all back for the Terps but key reserve Ben Pooler injured his knee in camp and is out for the year. The secondary appears to be in worse shape as three starters are gone there, too, but starter Cameron Chism led the team with four interceptions and also back are Kenny Tate and Atwine Perez, the defense's #7 and #8 tacklers. Though the losses at the starting positions are heavy the defense returns nearly all of the 2nd and 3rd string. Overall 6 of the top 8 tacklers are back and Wujciak should probably count double.

Kicking Game: Nick Ferrara hit 18 of 25 field goals and doubled as punter along with Travis Baltz; each averaged around 40 yards per punt. Both are back and Baltz should be the #1 punter.
Return Game: Toney Logan was barely adequate as a punt returner last year, with a 6.7 yard average. But Torrey Smith was a dynamite kick returner with two touchdown returns while averaging 25.7 yards. Both are back this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #50
Ralph Friedgen had a trying season in 2009, by far the worst of his tenure. It may have hurt recruiting, too, as the Terps slipped far from last year's near-top 25 class. It didn't help that their top catch, linebacker Javarie Johnson decided to transfer before ever playing a down for Maryland.

2009 Recap Last pre-season my charts foretold a 1-11 year for the Terps (with 4-8 cume), but I didn't believe it was possible that they'd fall below 3-9 after an 8-5 2008. They did beat James Madison though it took overtime, and for the second straight year they lost to Middle Tennessee State. After a loss to Rutgers they pulled one of their "what the hell?" games from back in '08 out of their pockets and beat Clemson. Then they lost seven straight games, finishing 2-10 which beat the 1-11 doomsday forecast but fell 1 win short of what I thought was their minimum.

Maryland 2010 schedule & forecast
9/6	Mon	N	Navy	49%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	Morgan State	93%	W
9/18	Sat	@	West Virginia	35%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	Florida International	74%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Duke	54%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Clemson	31%	L
10/23	Sat	@	*Boston College	37%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	52%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	25%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Virginia	47%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	35%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	55%	W
Projection Straight up: 5-7 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook This year looks a lot better. Kind scheduling gives them two easy games (Morgan State and FIU) and with a neutral-field tossup against Navy the Terps could start 3-1.

Either way, there are probably three ACC wins on the board plus another at Virginia that is winnable. In all the charts forecast 5 wins, with a 6-6 cumulative projection.

All of the forecasted wins come at home, so if they can defend their own turf the Terrapins only need to win one more game to be bowl-eligible. That means the Navy opener takes on huge significance in terms of the team's December plans.

If they lose that, then Virginia is their best bet for a true road win. West Virginia, Clemson, Boston College, Miami, and Florida State (at home) look like fairly certain losses.

But you never know, as they've beaten Clemson two years running. Maryland remains an unpredictable team so I'll go with the cumulative projection, which doesn't make game-by-game selections but looks at the cumulative odds. 6-6 sounds good to me.

64. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (Sun Belt #1) Polls: AP #43

2009 Results: Record: 10-3 Bowl: Beat So. Miss 42-32 (New Orleans) Poll finish: AP #37, USA #33
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #66 Success: #44 Overall: #64
It's looking like a special season is in store for the Blue Raiders—as long as Dwight Dasher plays.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #61 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #34
Dwight Dasher *is* the MTSU offense. If he stays healthy (and eligible), all is well.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #62    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #42
Quarterback Dwight Dasher racked up 2,789 yards and 23 touchdowns through the air and still there's room for improvement: he completed just 55% of his attempts and threw 14 interceptions. Back for his senior year we should see Dasher do better in those areas. Although two of the top three receivers from last year are gone including leader Chris McClover (541 yards), Garrett Andrews (530) and Shane Blissard (283) return as well as five others who had over 100 receiving yards. The offensive line was fairly solid in allowing just 19 sacks and loses just one starter. Last year's backup Brent Burnette transferred, leaving even greener players in charge in case of an injury to Dasher, which is the only thing that can prevent the passing game from making significant gains.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #39     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #19
Dasher was also the team's primary ground gainer to the tune of 1,154 yards and 13 touchdowns, making his value to the team all the more apparent. Running back D.D. Kyles added a very respectable 857 yards but may take a back seat to Phillip Tanner who was a medical redshirt last year after rushing for 714 yards in 2008. So there are multiple ways the Raiders can hit you on the ground. The offensive line deserves much credit for this production and the continued gains the team will make this year. Four starters return to the line: Mark Fisher, Mike Williams, Brandon McLeroy, and Alex Stuart are back while Mark Thompson departs. With both Kyles and Tanner as options the Raiders will have a top 25 level rushing attack in 2010.

Note: Dwight Dasher has been suspended by MTSU for "30% of the season." The Raiders will be lucky if the NCAA accepts that as punishment, but we're treating it as if it's the case. The team's rating remains the same while the first four games are graded with Dasher absent.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #65 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #78
The loss of two key linebackers should cause the MTSU defense to slip a bit.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #57 Adj. Pass Def: #70 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #49 Sacks: #15
The Raider defensive line has its plusses and minuses this year. On the plus side they have Jamari Lattimore (5.5 sacks) and Dwight Smith back. On the minus side they lose Chris McCoy (7 sacks, 13 tackles for loss) and Brandon Perry, while Smith and backup Sacoby Carter might not be 100% to start the year. Those minuses probably outweight the plusses, which is also true at linebacker as MTSU loses its top two tacklers, Cam Robinson (113 tackles, 5 sacks) and Danny Carmichael (6.5 sacks). Antwan Davis is back but between Robinson, Carmichael, and McCoy they lose 1/2 of the team's sacks and the Raiders' #15 pass pressure rating is sure to plummet. The secondary is in much better shape with three starters, Rod Issac, Kevin Brown (4 interceptions), and Jeremy Kellem (3 int)—all seniors—returning to the fold. Alex Suber (12 pass breakups) is gone but overall the secondary should be even better this season and help compensate for a weaker pass rush.

Kicking Game: Alan Gendreau was a fantastic placekicker last year, hitting 18 of 22 attempts. He's back, but the Raiders need a replacement for punter David DeFatta, who averaged a poor 38.7 last season. Nathaniel Toulson will take over those duties in the fall.
Return Game: RB/WR Desmond Gee was the main kick return man last season, averaging 22.2 yards per return; he's gone, as is receiver Patrick Honeycutt who averaged just 5 yards per punt return. Running back Philip Tanner may take over kickoffs while Rod Isaac fields punts.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #100
Rick Stockstill has MTSU in the midst of a breakthrough in Murfreesboro. His recruiting has been about average for the Sun Belt lately, where most players come in as projects anyway so it's up to the coaching staff to identify and develop potential among those that the bigger conferences have passed over. One bigger prospect from the '10 class is JUCO QB Logan Kilgore, who could play backup to Dasher this season.

2009 Recap The Blue Raiders burned through their 2009 schedule, losing only to Sun Belt champ Troy BCS conference schools Clemson and Mississippi State. Few gave them much credit for this however, and with good reason. One, clearing out the Sun Belt without beating Troy isn't really much of an accomplishment; out of conference they beat only lowly Memphis and Maryland, both 2-10. Secondly, they were beat pretty convincingly in their losses: 37-14 at Clemson, 31-7 at Troy, and 27-6 to Mississippi State. By the end of the regular season MTSU hadn't beaten a team with a winning record. They fixed that with a 42-32 defeat of Southern Mississippi in the New Orleans Bowl, the first time many had seen Dasher play. He'll have a lot more eyes on him this year.

MTSU 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Minnesota	53%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Austin Peay	80%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Memphis	59%	W
9/25	Sat	@	*LA-Lafayette	58%	W
10/5	Tue	vs.	*Troy	67%	W
10/16	Sat	@	Georgia Tech	29%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana-Monroe	75%	W
11/2	Tue	@	*Arkansas State	62%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*North Texas	67%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*Western Kentucky	67%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Florida Atlantic	70%	W
12/4	Sat	@	*Florida International	68%	W
Projection Straight up: 11-1 Cumulative: 8-4

2010 Outlook This may be a special year for the Blue Raiders. I think they'll again sweep through the Sun Belt conference—Troy included—on their way to a conference title and a very good record.

Whether they'll achieve the 11 wins listed here is debatable. Minnesota will be a tough foe and they could stumble somewhere in conference. They cumulative projection calls for an 8-4 season, reflecting all these uncertainties.

But the only game on the slate that looks out of reach is when the Raiders travel to Georgia Tech. That game will do a lot for the program if they even keep it close. After two big losses to BCS programs last season it's crucial they play well if they want a spot in the final Top 25.

MTSU might not have the confidence to beat a Big Ten school in the opener; they might be too hyped at the season's start. Between that possibility and the chance of a slip-up somewhere else, I'll be a bit conservative and call for a 10-2 season. And if they win another bowl game they'll finish in the top 25.

Note: since Dasher's situation is uncertain, we've simply treated the first four games as if he were absent. The Minnesota game should have swung over to the Gophers—but they're going to have three key starters missing in that game! So although the percentages plummet on the other three games, the forecast surprisingly remains the same. But a lot more uncertainty has been added to MTSU's season.

65. Tennessee Volunteers (SEC #11; East #5)

2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Lost to Virginia Tech 37-14 (Chik-Fil-A) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #21 Success: #45 Overall: #25
Hits against the offense and defense have the Vols floundering in Dooley's first year.

Offense (4 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #23 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #94
A depleted offensive line paves the way for a potential offensive meltdown this year, although incoming and redshirt freshman will prevent things from being quite as bad as the projected rankings here suggest.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #37    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #105
Jonathan Crompton was so good in 2009 that he has Volunteer fans missing him now that he's gone. With 2,800 passing yards and 27 TDs, Crompton exceeded everyone's expectations and now with every FBS-experienced quarterback gone. Backup Nick Stephens is gone. Matt Simms, Phil's skinny son, had 39 yards two years ago at Louisville. Doak Raulston was a redshirt at Louisiana Tech. Sophomore Nick Lamaison transferred out. RIght now it looks like Simms and freshman Tyler Bray are the #1 and #2. There are some very good receivers back, though. Gerald Jones, Denarius Moore, and tight end Luke Stocker were the top three last year combining for over 1,600 yards and 16 TDs. Starting fullback Kevin Cooper (110 rec. yards) returns too. But that's not enough to offset a very green quarterback behind an even greener offensive line. Last year they gave up a reasonable 19 sacks (#22 in nation adjusted) but lose all five starters.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #38     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #109
The running game looks to suffer similarly. With Monterio Hardesty (1,345 yards, 13 TDs) gone along with last year's sensation recruit Bryce Brown (460 yards), the Vols lose most of their production and open up a big opportunity for Tauren Poole who had 85 yards in just 10 carries. He'll be running behind a brand new offensive line, however, as the Vols lose 3-year starter Chris Scott, 2-year starter Jacques McClendon, Aaron Douglas, and both Cory and Cody Sullins. They'll be starting at least one and probably two freshmen. Poole still has a chance for a good year but he'll have to do all the work.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #27 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #52
The defense isn't as bad off as the offense, but that doesn't say much.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #35 Adj. Pass Def: #24 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #11 Sacks: #83
The defensive line is in rough shape after starter Ben Martin (3.5 sacks) and projected starter Marlon Walls both tore their Achilles' tendons and are out for the year. Even before that the loss of #3 tackler Dan Williams and Wes Brown (5 sacks combined) meant that the weak pass rush would get weaker. Now only Chris Walker (6 sacks) returns and USC transfer Malik Jackson is eligible this year, but the rushing defense will soften. At linebacker they're in better shape with LaMarcus Thompson and Neck Reveiz back but the loss of #1 tackler Rico McCoy (119 tackles) hurts. Finally the secondary loses Eric Berry, the #5 pick in the NFL draft, as well as Dennis Rogan. Art Evans and Janzen Jackson are back but the Vols' great pass defense of '09 will suffer. Overall the top four tacklers are gone and most importantly they lose Berry.

Kicking Game: Chad Cunningham averaged 42.1 yards per punt, and Daniel Lincoln made 10 of 16 field goals but was injured and hit just 1 of 6 outside the 40. Both are back for their senior years, but Cunningham may be pushed by incoming freshman Matt Darr, the top-rated high school punter in the '10 class.
Return Game: Nu'Keese Richarson averaged 11.0 yards per punt return and handled some kickoffs as well. He's gone but main kickoff returnman, running back David Oku, is back after averaging a solid 26.2 per attempt. Safety Janzen Jackson heads the punt fielding crew this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #11
Derek Dooley is Tennessee's third coach in three years. They traded Phil Fulmer for Lane Kiffin, who understandably jumped at the chance to coach USC when the job opened and they offered him an outrageous salary. Dooley inherits a score of Kiffin-related problems, among them Bryce Brown (Dooley hasn't released him from scholarship), the NCAA sniffing around, and player defections that started with Kiffin's reign. One thing that hasn't slipped about the program is recruiting. Both Kiffin and Dooley still put together top ten classes in their first year. Wide receiver Da'rick Rogers (already in trouble in the pre-season) is the 5-star catch of the class, while more than half a dozen others are consensus blue chips. Note that Tennessee's Rushing, Passing, and Defense projectioned rankings are figured before new and redshirt freshman are factored into the team's overall ranking. So the Vols' top ten-level classes from the past two years will play a big part in keeping the team from collapsing this year.

2009 Recap Tennesse beat up on poor Western Kentucky 63-7 to start the year but it was a different matter next week as they fell at home to UCLA 19-15. They gained respect by playing Florida very close, losing only 23-13. For the most part they looked better when losing: to Florida, to Auburn 26-22 when the Tigers were undefeated; and especially to Alabama 12-10, in a game they lost on a blocked kick. They put together a few good wins, beating Georgia 45-19, and South Carolina 31-13. Finishing 6-6, they somehow got to (or had to) play Virginia Tech and were handled soundly 37-14.

Tennessee 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Martin	87%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Oregon	28%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Florida	28%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	UAB	54%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*LSU	32%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Georgia	36%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	25%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*South Carolina	30%	L
11/6	Sat	@	Memphis	65%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	42%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	55%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	48%	L
Projection Straight up: 4-8 Cumulative: 5-7

2010 Outlook Between the three head coaches in three years the only constant will be a mediocre record. Tennessee has a very rough schedule in the first 2/3 of the season and will be lucky to do better than 2-6. Between I-AA cupcake Tennessee-Martin and UAB at home they face Oregon and Florida. Then they go on the road and face LSU, Georgia, and South Carolina, with Alabama at home in the middle.

The final four games are much kinder and all could be wins. If so, that would put them at 6-6 for the year and deliver another bowl game. But Kentucky will be a tough game, and Mississippi moreso. The projection at left has the Vols just 4-8, but I like the cumulative projection of 5-7.

To get to 6-6 might require an upset of one of the very tough teams in the first 8 games. But with 6-6 looking like an upper limit their odds of reaching it appear poor. The good news is that the four must-win games come at the end of the season, by which time the new quarterback and new offensive line should have settled in, and the freshmen from the great recruiting classes will be used to playing big-time ball.

August 19, 2010 at 10:03 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #66 to #70: Minnesota, Temple, Duke, Oklahoma State, Central Michigan

This installment covers teams from #66 to #70. To see the full list, click here.

66. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Big Ten #7)

2009 Results: Record: 6-7 Bowl: Lost to Iowa State 14-13 (Insight Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #60 Success: #58 Overall: #59
Few teams this year return so many starters on offense and so few on defense.

Offense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #67 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #36
Yet another offensive scheme is put into place to try to mess up the returning talent.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #48    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #28
Adam Weber has seen a lot of change in the three years he's been the starting quarterback. They ran the spread for the first two, then abandoned that with a new offensive coordinator. Now they have another new offensive coordinator, who is installing a "power running" game. What that will mean for Weber's passing numbers is anybody's guess. Last year his yardage dropped to 2,582 (from 2,761 in '08 and 2,895 in '07), his completion percentage was just 52% (from 62%), he had 13 TD passes (15 in '08, 24 in '07) and 15 interceptions (just 8 in '08). A lot of the problem was due to the offensive line which allowed 41 sacks, 11 more than the previous year and ranking 95th in the country. With all five starters back and a year more experienced, the line should provide much better pass protection for Weber. Unfortunately he loses his two top targets from last year in Eric Decker and Nick Tow-Arnett, who combined for 1,263 yards and 8 TDs. Five others who had more than 10 receptions are back, though, including Da'Jon McKnight, Troy Stoudermire, and Brandon Green who had roughly 300 yards apiece. MarQueis Gray is an X-factor at both wide receiver and at QB in wildcat formation. If the new coordinator work with him instead of against him, Weber should have his best year as a senior.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #92     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #56
Minnesota's rushing attack was rather subdued in 2009, but the new offense is committed to a strong running game. That's easy to say but when your leading rusher (Duane Bennett) has just 376 yards there's nowhere to go but up. They lose the #2 back (Kevin Whaley, 367 yd.) but #3 DeLeon Eskridge is back along with wildcat QB/WR Gray (265 yards). The offensive line was pretty pathetic last season but practice makes perfect...or at least, practice makes less pathetic. Five starters are back for the Gopher O-line, and four are seniors: D.J. Burris, Matt Carufel, Jeff Wills, and Dominic Alford. Junior Chris Bunders returns too, and they get a full-time starter (Ryan Wynn) and a half-time starter (Ryan Orton) back from 2008. The line has got to be much better this season. Depending on how much they run the wildcat, Gray could have significant yardage in his sophomore year, and Weber is a big variable, too: He had 617 yards in 2008, 233 in '09, and -133 last season (141 gross, 274 in sacks); if he can reverse that trend the offense would be better for it. To do so he needs the help of the offensive line and the blessing of O.C. Jeff Horton.

Defense (2 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #52 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #92
The defense is the diametric opposite of the offense and will go from average to poor.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #55 Adj. Pass Def: #60 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #55 Sacks: #60
The front seven is pretty easy: every starter is gone. Cedric McKinley, Garrett Brown, Eric Small, and Barrett Moen are gone from the defensive line, taking with them 7.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss. And at linebacker they lose #1 tackler Lee Campbell (119 tackles, 10 tackles for loss), #2 Nate Triplett (105), and #4 Simoni Lawrence. Only the secondary returns starters: Kim Royston and Kyle Theret, both senior safeties. Corners Marcus Sherels and Traye Simmons are gone. Royston was injured in the spring and may miss a few early games. Adding insult to injury, the sad tale of Sam Maresh got even sadder as he was declared ineligible for this season. The linebacker was one of the Gophers' highest-rated recruits a few years ago but endured heart surgery and a cancer scare to return to the lineup only to have to leave the team to work on his grades.

Kicking Game: Dan Orseske averaged a great 44.6 yards in 9 punts before he got sick and redshirted, leaving the chores to Blake Haudan, who did nearly as well (42.6). Haudan is gone and Orseske is all better and should pick up where he left off. Kicker Eric Ellestad is back after making 13 of 17 field goals last season.
Return Game: Bryant Allen is back as punt returner (12.2 average on 6 returns) with Troy Stoudermire, who was again fantastic as a kickoff return man (24.6 average). Don't be shocked if Stoudermire takes one to the house in 2010 as it seems he's due.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #49
Tim Brewster had a 1-11 record his first year with the Gophers, and since then he's batted .500. The first year put him on the hot seat, the 2nd took him off, and the third put him half-way back on. He "discovered" Adam Weber then oversaw his decline in production. As a recruiter he's done pretty well; this year's class was 7th in the Big Ten. But that was supposed to be his specialty. Everyone figures the defense will have troubles this year, but with 9 starters back the offense should at least produce at lot of points, whether the team's record is good in the end. This year's best catch is in-state recruit Jimmy Gjere, a blue chip offensive lineman from Brighton.

2009 Recap The Gophers' season looked promising at times last year. Not after they needed overtime to edge Syracuse, and not necessarily when they beat Air Force by a touchdown and Northwestern 35-24. But the intervening loss to California was much less brutal than expected, just 35-21. As it turned out Cal was no national title contender, but after the Gophers nearly beat Wisconsin (31-28) and beat Purdue they were 4-2. Unfortunately they played Penn State and Ohio State next, losing by a combined 58-7, and later lost to Illinois (35-32) and Iowa while beating MSU 42-34 and struggling past South Dakota State 16-13. At 6-6 they returned to the Insight Bowl for the 3rd time in 4 years and predictably were flat and miscues caused a 14-13 loss for a losing season.

Minnesota 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	@	M. Tennessee St.	47%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	South Dakota	74%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Southern Cal	44%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	Northern Illinois	56%	W
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	55%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	27%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Purdue	52%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	41%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	30%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Michigan State	41%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Illinois	52%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	41%	L
Projection Straight up: 5-7 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook The Gophers should play exciting football in 2010. The offense will be more explosive, and the defense will be more porous. Look for high-scoring games when the Gophers come to town.

The opener against Middle Tennessee is a really important game for both teams in determining what kind of season each will have. It's a close one, but the Gophers will probably lose on the road. MTSU will be without Dwight Dasher, but Minnesota will be missing three starters: Kim Royston, Kyle Theret, and Dom Alford.

Four home games follow, and the Gophers could win three of them. People may be surprised if they stay close to USC, but the Trojans may have a down year. We'll see. Either way I don't think they'll be able to win that one, and both Northern Illinois and Northwestern will be challenges.

Purdue also looks like a win, and Illinois barely falls to them, giving them a 5-7 record. Add up the odds and you get a cumulative estimate that barely rounds up to 6-6. The extra win could come in the opener against MTSU. But then they can't slip up against NIU, Northwestern, or Illinois, which is why I think one way or another they'll fall short at 5-7 this year. Do they really want to go to the Insight Bowl again anyway?

67. Temple Owls (Mac #2; East #1) Polls: AP #43 USA/Coaches #47

2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to UCLA 30-21 (EagleBank) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #69 Success: #50 Overall: #69
Bernard Pierce leads an ever-improving Temple team under Al Golden.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #55 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #45
An unusual change at quarterback, but consistency at running back is the important thing.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #114    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #114
Quarterback Vaughn Charlton chose to move to tight end this year, not a great loss as he completed just 50% of his passes for 1,390 yards and had more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (10). But 2nd-string QB Chester Stewart isn't a great replacement as he completed only 40% with a 3:3 ratio and 514 yards. For now it looks like Stewart is the starter and he's motivated to prove his nay-sayers wrong. He's not in a bad situation as the top two receivers, Michael Campbell and Joe Jones (806 yards combined) return. Joe Nixon moves to the defense but Dy'Onne Crudup (392 yards in 2007) is back from a redshirt year. The four returning starters on the O-line should reduce the 21 sacks it allowed last year. Plus he's got Charlton, someone who should know the routes pretty well, as a target at tight end. With expectations set low last year Stewart should have no trouble meeting them.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #31     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #27
The engine of the Temple offense is Bernard Pierce who gained 1,361 yards as a freshman and is being touted as a Heisman candidate already. He had 16 touchdowns and will be running behind a much more experienced O-line: 3-year starter Devin Tyler is gone but seniors Colin Madison and Darius Morris join juniors John Palumbo and Steve Caputo on an all-upperclassman line as Derek Dennis (2007 starter) takes the other slot. Pierce should have a fantastic season and should he be hurt Matt Brown (529 yards) is a strong backup. Temple will be a hard team for MAC opponents to stop on the ground.

Defense (7 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #79 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #81
Temple returns a duo that accounted for 20 of their 34 sacks.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #37 Adj. Pass Def: #103 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #74 Sacks: #46
Temple had 34 sacks last year against weak competition, good enough for #46 in the adjusted rankings, and this year they should be just as good if not better as Adrian Robinson (13 sacks) and Muhammad Wilkerson (7) are back on the Owl defensive line. The line loses one starter and another shifts position so the tough Owl rushing defense might drop a notch, but the pass rush will be in full effect again. At linebacker they lose two starters including #1 tackler Alex Joseph but Elijah Joseph is back and Amara Kamara moves in from the D-line. The pass defense was the weakest link but three starters are back in the secondary: Jaiquawn Jarrett (3 interceptions), Kevin Kroboth, and Marquis Liverpool (3 int). More or less the Temple defense should be just as strong in 2010.

Kicking Game: Brandon McManus (17 of 24 field goals) and Jeff Wathne (37.2 punting average w/32.5 net) are both back for the Owls and Wathne is still listed as the starter despite his low numbers.
Return Game: The Temple return team was fantastic last season, returning 2 punts and 2 kickoffs for touchdowns. Both WR Delano Green (11.6 average on punts) and WR-turned-CB James Nixon (29.2 on kickoffs) will do it again this year for the Owls.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #86 #103
Temple once again had one of the best recruiting classes in the Mid-American Conference as Al Golden continues to build the program. 0-11 when he took over, he's had seasons with 1, 4, 5, and 9 wins. He seems to swap player positions a lot more than most coaches but so far it's worked out fine. [Update: the class's ranking dwindled as attrition took hold, with at least six members leaving or not qualifying. It comes and it goes!]

2009 Recap For all of Al's golden touch last year started off with a big disappointment as they lost to Villanova 27-24. The Wildcats ended up winning the FCS championship but still Temple didn't plan on losing to a I-AA team. They lost the next week to Penn State to start 0-2. But then they went on a tear, winning 9 games in a row. The victims were MAC cupcakes for the most part: 0-12 Eastern Michigan, 1-11 Miami of Ohio, 2-10 Ball State—but they did beat Navy 27-24 on the road. They lost at Ohio and therefore didn't play in the MAC title game. In the EagleBank Bowl they led UCLA at the half before falling 30-21.

Temple 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Villanova	49%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	*Central Michigan	54%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	46%	L
9/25	Sat	@	Penn State	35%	L
10/2	Sat	@	Army	52%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*Northern Illinois	47%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Bowling Green	75%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Buffalo	59%	W
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Akron	71%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Kent St	52%	W
11/16	Tue	vs.	*Ohio	61%	W
11/23	Tue	@	*Miami (Ohio)	56%	W
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Could it happen again? Another opening-day loss to Villanova? The Wildcats are again the top team, pre-season, and the game looks like a tossup again this year. Temple will certainly take the game more seriously and want revenge to boot, so I think they'll win it despite the official edge given here to Villanova.

Other non-MAC foes include UConn, Penn State, and Army, and they should go 1-3 but that's not guaranteed. Between Villanova and Army they should get one win, certainly.

The MAC is a different story. Only Northern Illinois should beat them. That's seven wins, including six in a row at the end, good enough for an 8-4 record. The cumulative projection gives them just seven. I'll give them eight since I think the Villanova game is a win, offsetting any upset they might fall into.

They have the potential to be 10-2 pretty easily, though. And UConn isn't completely out of reach, but let's not get greedy. They should make the MAC title game but they'll probably run into Northern Illinois again. They could win the rematch but I favor the Huskies. Thus the odds of beating last year's nine wins, even after adding in a bowl game, are pretty slim.

68. Duke Blue Devils (ACC #11; Coastal #6)

2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #65 Success: #77 Overall: #66
The offense might not lose a step but the defense will and Duke will tread water this year.

Offense (8 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #52 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #57
Duke's offense will be largely the same, and if QB Sean Renfree excels it could improve.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #6    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #13
Thaddeus Lewis was the most productive quarterback that nobody heard about in 2009. Probably because he played for Duke, which gets an inverse amount of attention in the sports world as the basketball team. Lewis racked up 3,330 yards with 20 touchdowns. Taking the reigns as Lewis departs will be Sean Renfree, who had good numbers (68%, 4 TDs vs. 2 ints) in limited action at backup QB. He'll walk into a good situation: protected by a line that returns four starters and throwing to a seasoned groups of receivers. The top six are all back, led by Donovan Varner (1,047 yards, 8 TDs), Conner Vernon (746 yds.), and Austin Kelly (625). Starting tight end Brett Huffman is back as well. Renfree is still recovering from an ACL tear last year and all three top receivers suffered hamstring injuries during fall camp, so there might be a rough start but Duke's passing game should be very productive again, just maybe not in the top ten like last season.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #118     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #112
Duke's running game was the polar opposite of their passing game, and it wasn't just because they rarely ran the ball. True, they ranked 117th in number of attempts, but they were #118 in yards per play (adjusted for opponents) and ended #118 on a per-game basis. Their top three backs combined for just 590 yards but all return. Desmond Scott led with 260 yards; Jay Hollingsworth had 399 in 2008; and Patrick Kurunwune had the highest per-carry average of the three at 4.4. The offensive line was certainly to blame and things should be better as four starters return. Jarrod Holt departs while Bryan Morgan, Brian Moore, and Kyle Hill return and the left guard slot is covered by Mitchell Lederman and Brandon Harper. Despite the improvements Duke just isn't going to run the ball a lot so their ranking won't skyrocket, but it should climb out of the cellar.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #73 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #90
Six starters return but the D loses its clear leaders in sacks, tackles, and interceptions.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #67 Adj. Pass Def: #85 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #65 Sacks: #101
Last year's defense was pretty average (for the FBS as a whole) in most departments but had a very poor pass rush. It's bad, then, that they lose defensive end Ayanga Okpokowuruk who had a team-leading 6 sacks and defensive tackle Vince Oghobaase who was 2nd with 2.5. Patrick Egboh and Charlie Hatcher (1 sack each) return to the defensive line. At linebacker Damian Thornton and Abraham Kromah return but #1 tackler Vincent Ray departs. The secondary loses #2 tackler Catron Gainey and Leon Wright, who had 5 interceptions. Matt Daniels and Chris Rwabukamba (combined 13 pass breakups) will try to pick up the slack.

Kicking Game: Kicker Will Snyderwine was excellent, connecting on 17 of 20 field goal attempts while Kevin Jones averaged 39.3 yards per punt. Both are back.
Return Game: Receiver Johnny Williams (#4 in yardage last season) returned both kickoffs and punts, averaging a decent 20.6 and 8.3 yards per attempt. Leading RB Desmond Scott was even better on kickoffs (25.1) and both are back this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #87
David Cutcliffe has already accomplished a lot at Duke with 4-8 and 5-7 seasons under his belt, as 9 wins is just one shy of the amount the program had from 2000 to 2007 combined. Last year's 5 wins was the most by a Duke team since 1994. While this year's class is poor for the ACC (dead last) it's not the worst in the FBS by any means and supplement's last year's excellent class.

2009 Recap The Blue Devils lost the opener at home to I-AA power Richmond, but regrouped to beat Army. They fell to Kansas and Virginia Tech (only 34-26) but beat another FCS squad, North Carolina Central, to stand at 2-3. Duke then had a three-game winning streak—their first since 1994—beating ACC laggards N.C. State, Maryland, and Virginia. At 5-3 they needed just one more win for bowl eligibility but faced North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Miami next. They lost all three as expected and met Wake Forest, then 4-7 and on a 5-games losing streak, at home in the final. They kept up most of the game but lost 45-34.

Duke 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Elon	56%	W
9/11	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	46%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Alabama	24%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	Army	60%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Maryland	46%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	30%	L
10/23	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	19%	L
10/30	Sat	@	Navy	45%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	52%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	42%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	28%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	31%	L
Projection Straight up: 3-9 Cumulative: 5-7

2010 Outlook It appears that a bowl game will have to wait yet another year. Only three games on the schedule look like wins and even taking upsets into account they'll only match last season's record of 5-7.

Elon is one of the best FCS teams and is top ten in every pre-season poll, so Duke will have their hands full but should win at home. They should beat Army at home later in the month and have a decent shot at Wake Forest, so it is possible that they could start 3-1. It will be interesting to see how they do against Alabama at home. Or maybe not.

After that the ACC schedule gets into full swing and there isn't much that looks good. Duke should beat Virginia at home but it's no guarantee, while Maryland and Navy on the road should be close losses. They close with Georgia Tech and UNC, so if they want to be bowl eligible they better have it taken care of by mid-November. The only good news this year is that six wins will get them there for sure, as there's only one I-AA team on the slate. The bad news is that even their designated "wins" above are shaky, so even reaching the 5-7 cumulative projection may be elusive. I think Duke will go 4-8 this season, one less win than last year but still matching their best season from 2000-2007. Despite not achieving a winning record again Cutcliffe won't be on the hot seat any time soon.

69. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big Twelve #9; South #6) Polls: AP #42 USA #39

2009 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to Mississippi 21-7 (Cotton) Poll finish: AP #30, USA #25
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #36 Success: #30 Overall: #35
The Cowboys lose a slew of starters and take a big slide.

Offense (4 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #53 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #97
The promise of last year's great offense never materialized and the key players are all gone.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #100    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #116
Zac Robinson's senior year didn't go quite as planned. The Cowboys were out of the national title picture early, receiver Dez Bryant was ruled ineligible, and Robinson was hurt later in the year and had just over 2,000 passing yards, down 1,000 from 2009. He also had 12 interceptions to go with 15 touchdowns. Backup Brandon Weeden did pretty well—63%, 4 TDs, 1 int—and gives hope that this year will be okay. And losing Bryant doesn't hurt as bad since he played only a few games (323 yards). Hubert Anyiam finished as the leading receiver with 515, and he's back along with the #4, Justin Blackmon, and two others who had over 100 yards. Even Bo Bowling (200 yards in '08) returns as a walk-on. But the offensive line is rebuilt with four new starters, meaning that last year's great protection—just 12 sacks, #2 in the nation adjusted for opponents—will be a thing of the past. The offense will be even more pass-oriented next year so the rock-bottom ranking projection above is certainly overly pessimistic, in terms of efficiency the passing game will probably fall.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #27     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #87
Another player who didn't live up to expectations last season was Kendall Hunter, who was hobbled all year and finished with just 382 yards compared to 1,555 the year before. Instead it was Keith Toston who topped 1,128 and ran for 11 touchdowns behind last year's great offensive line. Toston is gone and Hunter returns to find the offensive line in shambles; only sophomore Lane Taylor is back from last year's starting lineup. Gone are Russell Okung, the 6th pick in the NFL draft; 3-year starters Andrew Lewis and Brady Bond; and Noah Franklin. Hunter will have to do it by himself as Beau Johnson (304 yards) also departs and QB Robinson's 304 net yards won't be replaced by Wheeden in the new offense which is a Texas Tech style. Hunter could still top 1,000 yards despite all this and new backup Jeremy Smith had 160 yards against Grambling (a game is a game!) but the team's total will be way down.

Defense (3 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #20 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #45
Last year's exceptional defense will drop quite a bit as the top four tacklers depart.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #10 Adj. Pass Def: #27 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #27 Sacks: #33
The Cowboy defensive line returns key player Ugo Chinasa (6.5 sacks) along with Jamie Blatnick, who will probably miss some time at the beginning of the year due to his bar fight law trouble. But their #10 rushing defense will be a thing of the past due to the two starters they lose on the D-line and losing their entire 3-man linebacker unit. Gone are Donald Booker (5 sacks), Patrick Lavine (5 interceptions), and Andre Sexon, the team's top three tacklers. 2008 starter Orie Lemon comes back from medical redshirt to help rebuild the unit. Markell Martin (11 pass breakups) is back in the secondary, with three starters gone including Perrish Cox (15 pass breakups). Backups Victor Johnson (DUI) and Daytawion Lowe (injury) may miss time as well. In all six of the seven top tacklers are gone from the defense and it will be much weaker across the board.

Kicking Game: Punter Quinn Sharp (45.1 average, 36.0 net) is back along with placekicker Dan Bailey (13 of 18 field goals made).
Return Game: Cornerback Cox handled both kickoff and punt returns, averaging 20.9 and 10.4 yards per attempt and returning one punt for a TD. Since he's gone, Justin Gilbert and Josh Cooper will attempt to fill his shoes.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #15
Mike Gundy put together a great recruiting class this season, due probably to a number of factors: the back to back 9-4 seasons; the early promise of the team with Robinson, Bryant, and Hunter; and perhaps even the "I'm a man" tirade which went viral on the internet a few years ago. Whatever the reason the strong class ranks #3 in the Big Twelve and has at least two consensus blue chips in linebacker Shawn Lewis from Texas and running back Joseph Randle from Wichita, Kansas.

2009 Recap It wasn't how it was supposed to be. The Cowboys still finished 9-4, but that was a mild disappointment and there are a lot of "what if"s. What if Dez Bryant hadn't been ruled ineligible? What if Kendall Hunter hadn't gotten hurt? The trouble is, the balloon was deflated early as after beating Georgia 24-10 they lost to Houston at home, 45-35. They still wouldn't have beaten Texas or Oklahoma at full strength, though the final scores would have been a lot closer than 41-14 and 27-0. And they probably would have beaten Mississippi in the bowl game. But the regular season would have looked very similar in the W/L columns.

Oklahoma St. 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Washington State	70%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Troy	65%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	55%	W
9/30	Thu	vs.	*Texas A&M	37%	L
10/8	Fri	@	LA-Lafayette	62%	W
10/16	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	23%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	29%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Kansas State	48%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	51%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Texas	27%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Kansas	50%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	24%	L
Projection Straight up: 6-6 Cumulative: 5-7

2010 Outlook No one's expecting another nine-win season from the Cowboys. The question this year is whether they can get to a bowl game at all, and many are saying the answer is no.

But I identify six games that Oklahoma State should win this year. Four of them are in the first five, so expect to see the Cowboys 4-1 in October before they face Texas Tech and Nebraska back to back. Kansas State and Baylor are close; I give them Baylor at home. They'll lose to Texas and Oklahoma again but in-between they can get their sixth win but it's going to be close.

The best they can expect to do is 7-5, winning all the close ones. The worst, 4-8 if they drop all three. That puts them on the edge of the straight up 6-6 and 5-7 cumulative projections. Two of the "toss-up" games are road games, so that's against them. But they're just a bit ahead of two of the teams (home field advantage is factored into the estimates). It's going to be a nail-biter, but if I had to commit I'd say they make it. 6-6 it is.

70. Central Michigan Chippewas (MAC #3; West #2) Polls: AP #43 USA #49

2009 Results: Record: 12-2 Bowl: Beat Troy 44-41 2OT (GMAC Bowl) Poll finish: AP #23, USA #24
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #45 Success: #18 Overall: #42
The Chippewas adjust themselves to the post-LeFevour era.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #45 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #77
Dan LeFevour is gone. 'Nuff said.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #33    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #73
Quarterback Dan LeFevour was as big a deal to Mt. Pleasant, Michigan as Tim Tebow was to Tallahassee. And the two weren't dissimilar. Able to run as well as being an efficient passer, LeFevour had a typical season in '09 completing 70% of his attempts for 3,438 yards and 28 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. With soph Ryan Radcliff the probable starter they go from a QB with nearly 13,000 career passing yards to one with 115 and from 102 TD passes to zero. Worse, CMU loses top receivers Antonio Brown (110 receptions, 1,198 yards) and Bryan Anderson (784) who caught 16 TD passes between them. Four others who had over 100 receiving yards are back including Kito Poblah (681) and starting tight end David Blackburn (113). One brighter spot is the offensive line, which protected LeFevour well, allowing just 17 sacks (#41 in nation) in 479 attempts. But overall it's not rocket science to predict that production will be down considerably this season.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #72     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #82
LeFevour was of course also the leading rusher on the team with 713 yards and a stunning 15 touchdowns. Among running backs Bryan Schroeder was first with 559 and Carl Volny 2nd with 390. WR Brown had the best average, 8.1, with 341 yards in just 42 carries. With LeFevour, Schroeder, and Brown gone that leaves Volny and #5 gainer Paris Cotton (220) the top options. Luckily the offensive line should be conducive to opening holes in the running game as they return four starters. Allen Ollenburger is gone, but two 3-year starters, Colin Miller and Jeff Maddux, return with Rocky Weaver and Jake Olson. Despite losing three of their four leading rushers, whether they be quarterbacks, wide receivers, or running backs, the offensive line insures that the decline won't be huge, and new QB Radcliff has shown running ability himself.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #50 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #44
Two star linebackers will lead the defense to a slight overall improvement in '10.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #71 Adj. Pass Def: #64 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #56 Sacks: #54
The defensive line loses Frank Zombo's 6.5 sacks but Sean Murnane and John Williams are back. At linebacker seniors Nick Bellore (132 tackles, 10 tackles for loss) and Matt Berning (108 tackles), the team's two top tacklers, return. The secondary loses starters Kirkston Edwards, Josh Gordy (11 pass breakups), and Eric Fraser but Dannie Bolden is back along with '08 starter Bobby Seay. Though they only return five starters from last season they have five of the top six tacklers back forming a solid foundation to build on, particularly at linebacker.

Kicking Game: Brett Hartmann averaged just 38.4 yards per punt but his net (34.6) was decent enough. Placekicker Andrew Aguila departs after making 17 of 23 field goals last season. His replacement will be one of three freshmen: David Harman, Paul Mudgett, or Richie Hogan. Needless to say, there may be some drop in kicking quality this year.
Return Game: Multitalented Antonio Brown was not just the team's leading receiver and highest-averaged rusher, he also returned punts and kicks, 3 of them for touchdowns in all. Averaging a fantastic 13.5 per PR and 22.1 per KR, he will be missed. If you assume the Chippewas will be lucky to get even one touchdown return next season, that means Brown's loss from the return team costs them roughly a point per game. Jahleel Addae is slated as designated punt and kick returner, though receiver Cody Wilson had 103 yards on three kickoff returns last year and should see some action there.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #115
Dan Enos takes over the reigns at an appropriate time; with the big change in quarterbacks, he'll take the opportunity to remake the offense (and defense) to his vision. The recruiting class in the transition from Butch Jones (who went to Cincinnati, replacing ex-CMU coach Brian Kelly, who went to Notre Dame, as if you didn't know) is a poor one, which isn't unexpected. Last year's class ranked 59th, for comparison. The consensus top player in the class is defensive lineman Kevin Henry from Morris, Illinois, but few others are considered to have higher than average potential.

2009 Recap Another year, another 10+ win season under Dan LeFevour. The Chippewas lost to Arizona 19-6, which hurt their credibility in the national polls. It took them weeks of winning, starting with a victory at Michigan State (29-27) to get it back. CMU was 7-1 and had finally started getting votes in the polls when they lost 31-10 to Boston College, which further cemented their reputation as a team that couldn't beat major conference squads (despite the MSU win). But four wins later they were 11-2, and after edging Troy 44-41 in overtime in the GMAC bowl they were 12-2 and were rewarded with a spot in both polls.

C. Michigan 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Hampton	89%	W
9/11	Sat	@	*Temple	46%	L
9/18	Sat	@	*Eastern Michigan	74%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Northwestern	47%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Ball State	63%	W
10/9	Sat	@	Virginia Tech	19%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Ohio)	62%	W
10/23	Sat	@	*Northern Illinois	45%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Bowling Green	74%	W
11/5	Fri	vs.	*Western Michigan	66%	W
11/13	Sat	@	Navy	44%	L
11/26	Fri	@	*Toledo	68%	W
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook The truth was, Central Michigan wasn't really a top 25 team. Though they deserved to be ranked for their accomplishments, they lost big to the only two winning BCS-conference teams they faced, and defeated only four winning teams all year. So this year, when they clearly aren't as good as last year, the Chippewas will struggle to be an average FBS football team.

Lucky for them their schedule is easy. I-AA Hampton at home? A breeze. 0-12 Eastern Michigan? No problem. Ball State, Miami of Ohio, Bowling Green, and Western Michigan at home? All pretty convincing wins for CMU. Even Toledo on the road is a solid "W."

That gives the Chippewas seven wins. Temple, Northwestern, Northern Illinois, and Navy, all on the road, all look like losses—but close losses. The only truly tough game on the slate is Virginia Tech.

The cumulative projection calls for a 7-5 season, too, and I think that's about correct. They could go 8-4 by stealing one of the road games, but let's not get greedy. They should be thankful that they can still manage a winning season without their 4-year starter stud and several other key players. It's not 12-2, but it will have to do.

August 19, 2010 at 11:29 AM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 18, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #71 to #75: Syracuse, Northwestern, North Carolina State, Kansas State, UAB

This installment covers teams from #71 to #75. To see the full list, click here.

71. Syracuse Orange (Big East #7)

2009 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #84 Success: #69 Overall: #84
A dramatic improvement on defense fuels the Orange's rise this season.

Offense (4 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #91 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #93
The running game will continue to carry Syracuse on offense.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #83    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #109
The Greg Paulus experiment last year was a limited success. Like anyone who is the nation's top quarterback out of high school, he showed gret accuracy, completing 68% of his passes for 2,024 yards and 13 TDs. But like any athlete who takes four years off, the timing wasn't completely there and he threw 14 interceptions. Backup Ryan Nassib (only 53%, but a 3:1 TD:int ratio) will take over this season without top receiver Mike Williams (746 yards, 6 TDs in half a season) but Marcus Sales and Abe Lemon (619 yards 4 TDs combined) are back along with three of the next four. O-line protection could be an issue as the Orange gave up 27 sacks in '09. Nassib will throw fewer interceptions than Paulus but he won't match his completion rate and production will be down.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #65     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #64
Delone Carter topped 1,000 yards in 2009 but there was some concern he wouldn't be back due to a snowball fight. Fortunately for Syracuse, he returns as does backup Antwon Bailey (312) although #3 Averin Collier (just 82 yards) is out due to academics and #5 Mike Jones (61) left the team. The vast majority of production is back and having mobile Nassib at QB will probably generate another 150+ yards on the ground. But the offensive line will likely be weaker, limiting progress. Jim McKenzie and Tucker Baumback (started just half-time in '09) are gone along with 3/4-time starters Jonathan Meldrim and Nick Speller, while senior Ryan Bartholomew returns with half-time starters Adam Rosner and Josh White. Added up it's like losing three starters with two returning, and the Orange O-line wasn't the best last season. They'll do well enough to maintain last year's production.

Defense (9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #76 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #28
Syracuse's defense goes from a relative liability to a strength.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #14 Adj. Pass Def: #62 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #84 Sacks: #5
One thing the Orange have going for them is a very strong rushing defense and that shouldn't change this year as three starters return to the front four as Chandler Jones (8.5 tackles for loss) rejoins with Mikhail Marinovich and Andrew Lewis. The Orange D also finished #5 (when adjusted for opposition) in sacks, racking up 35, most of them coming from the linebacking corps in their case. Doug Hogue (9.5 sacks) and Derrell Smith (6.5 sacks, #1 tackler), #1 and #2 on the team in sacks, return though E. J. Carter (2 sacks) was kicked off the team. Compared to the rushing defense, Syracuse's pass defense was a glaring weakness and luckily the secondary is loaded in '10. Mike Holmes (#2 tackler, 3 interceptions) leads the way with fellow seniors Max Suter and DaMon Merkerson, while half-time starters Kevyn Scott and Shamarko Thomas add depth with Phillip Thomas (part-time starter but the team's #7 tackler.) Thus the Orange's main weakness nearly becomes a strength, while their strengths remain strong. This is one of the most improved defenses in the nation and could approach top 25 quality depending on injuries.

Kicking Game: The Orange are set at punter and placekicker with Rob Long (43.8 average) and Ryan Lichtenstein (13 of 17 FG) back this year.
Return Game: Mike Jones returned kickoffs at a 24.1 yard clip last season and Donte Davis averaged 6.9 yards per punt return. Both are gone, and while safety Holmes moves in for punts, tailback Collier was listed as primary kickoff returner but as previously noted he is ineligible.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #47
Doug Marrone's second recruiting class is light years ahead of his first in the transition year following Greg Robinson, where there were also dozens of defections among players Robinson had brought in. The net effect was that Syracuse was down to 50 scholarship players at one point. But the latest class ranks 4th in the Big East with nearly a dozen higher-quality recruits in the large group.

2009 Recap The Orange only finished 2009 with one more win than they had in '08, but it felt like a big step forward. Part of it was the fact that they stood 3-3 at the mid-point of the season, with wins over Northwestern and Akron, and an overtime loss to Minnesota (23-20 OT). Penn State only beat the Orange 28-7, a score than undefeated Cincinnati repeated. They nearly beat Louisville on the road, falling 10-9. They'd defeated the Cardinals twice in a row before that, but the spread was telling; instead of the 37 points from two years ago, Louisville was just a touchdown favorite. The next week they blasted Rutgers 31-13 for their most dominant performance in years, and scored 31 again in a loss to UConn for their highest 2-game total in Big East play since 2004.

Syracuse 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Akron	63%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Washington	31%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Maine	68%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Colgate	76%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*South Florida	41%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Pittsburgh	38%	L
10/23	Sat	@	*West Virginia	33%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	35%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	63%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Rutgers	42%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	42%	L
11/27	Sat	vs.	Boston College	41%	L
Projection Straight up: 4-8 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook Syracuse should start the year 3-1 but after that it looks like another long, disappointing Big East campaign for the Orange, who will be heavily favorites in four games and pretty big underdogs in the other eight.

Syracuse plays two I-AA teams, Maine and Colgate, and neither are particularly good. They should also win the opener at Akron, and almost undoubtedly will lose at Washington.

From there it's a challenge to find a win other than Louisville, who they've beaten two of the last three contest. Syracuse could be favored at home this time. Preceding that game they face USF, Pitt, West Virginia, and Cincinnati, all of whom are still a lot better than Syracuse.

The final three games are all winnable but are probably not going to be wins. They are close enough in all these contests so that the cumulative projection gives them six wins. Though their defense will keep them in striking distance in almost every game I'd be surprised by anything more than 5-7. Not that it matters if they reach six, however, as they need to go 7-5 to reach a bowl game. For that to happen the offense as well as the defense would have to make significant gains.

72. Northwestern Wildcats (Big Ten #8) Polls: USA/Coaches #47

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Auburn 38-35 OT (Outback) Poll finish: USA #41
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #74 Success: #28 Overall: #67
Northwestern treads water this year but that's fine as they should get to another bowl game.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #80 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #84
Getting a new quarterback up to speed is job one for the Wildcats' offense.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #9    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #38
Northwestern's pass-oriented offense behind Mike Kafka was one of the nation's most potent, and Kafka had nearly 3,500 passing yards with 16 TDs. Dan Persa takes over and will be missing the top two receivers from last year, Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markshausen, a combined 1,783-yard loss. Five others who had over 100 yards are back, however, including tight end Drake Dunsmore (523) and WR Sidney Stewart (470). The offensive line is stocked and should afford Persa better protection than they did Kafka (32 sacks). Overall the passing game will still be good; no longer top ten but how much it falls depends on Persa and the receivers stepping up.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #100     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #85
There wasn't a lot of rushing going on in Northwestern's offense, in fact QB Kafka was probably the best running back on the team. He finished second with 295 yards and led all with 8 TD runs. Take away his sack losses and he'd have over 500 rushing yards. The leading true RB was Arby Fields with 302 (3.7 average) while three others had over 200 (with none averaging 4 yards per carry). Persa showed he could run, too, by netting 167 yards in limited play. The offensive line loses just two half-time starters, Kurt Mattes and Desmond Taylor. Ben Burkett, Doug Bartles, and Al Netter are back along with half-time starters Neal Deiters and Keegan Grant, essentially giving the Wildcats four returning starters. With a more experienced line, all their top rushers returning, and Persa able to make up for Kafka's ground production, the little-used Northwestern rushing attack should make a sizeable gain.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #64 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #50
All three linebackers return to the fold for the Wildcats.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #53 Adj. Pass Def: #58 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #59 Sacks: #47
Northwestern's defense wasn't great by Big Ten standards, but it was above average on an FBS level against the run, the pass, and in term of pass rush. Vince Brown (5 sacks) helped with the latter, and he's joined by Corbin Bryant again on the defensive line. At linebacker the Wildcats are loaded, with Quentin Davie (#1 tackler, 5 sacks), Nate Williams (#2 tackler), and Ben Johnson all back. Jordan Mabin returns to the secondary but they lose Sherrick McManis (5 interceptions) Brad Phillips (#3 tackler), and Brendan Smith. While the pass defense is likely to suffer, the overall defense will be stronger.

Kicking Game: Stefan Demos hit 18 of 25 field goals last year and if not for a terrible bowl game against Auburn he would have had an even higher percentage. He was poor at punting the ball, however, with a dismal 35.0 average. Demos is planning to forego punting this season to focus on kicking, so freshman Brandon Williams may take over the punting chores.
Return Game: Stephen Simmons was easily Northwestern's best kickoff return man, averaging 25.3 yards per attempt. He's back, and Hunter Bates is slated to take over punt return chores from departing safety Brendan Smith (6.6 average).
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #77
Pat Fitzgerald has done a great job at Northwestern. Despite consistently having below-par recruiting in the Big Ten (this year's class ranks at the bottom of the conference) he has kept them competing and winning, with back-to-back bowl seasons. And after decades of lowered expectations for the football team there's no urgency to win the league or compete for a national title. There are no true blue chips again in this year's class, but 10-12 higher-potential players to work with.

2009 Recap Northwestern has discovered the secret of bowl eligibility if you're the traditional cellar team in a BCS conference: schedule easy non-conference games. The Wildcats lined up I-AA Towson, Eastern Michigan (ended 0-12), Big East laggard Syracuse, and MAC's Miami of Ohio. They beat Towson easily and struggled with Eastern Michigan before actually losing to Syracuse. They didn't look like a bowl team at that point. They did beat Miami, and in the Big Ten they beat Purdue and Indiana while losing to Minnesota, Michigan State, and Penn State. At 4-4 they traveled to undefeated Iowa and left with a huge 17-10 upset. They toppled Illinois and Wisconsin to finish the regular season 8-4 before losing a crazy game to Auburn in the Outback Bowl, failing again in their quest to win their first bowl game since 1948.

Northwestern 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Vanderbilt	53%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Illinois State	72%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Rice	63%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	53%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Minnesota	45%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	56%	W
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	45%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Indiana	55%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Penn State	33%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	39%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	56%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	24%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook The Wildcats should get another shot at a bowl game in the 2010 season. While there is only one "guaranteed" win—Illinois State—on the schedule, there are only two near-certain losses, too, meaning the 'Cats could go anywhere from 1-11 to 10-2.

But the majority of the closer games lean their way, to the tune of a 7-5 finish. Home games vs. Central Michigan, Purdue, and Illinois look like wins along with road games vs. Vanderbilt, Rice, and Indiana. Games that narrowly go against them are Minnesota on the road and Michigan State at home. They probably can't count on upsetting Iowa yet again.

By this plan Northwestern finishes 3-5 in the Big Ten, once again relying on non-conference wins. But the non-conference slate is a bit tougher this year than last, and with so many "close" games the cumulative projection calls for a 6-6 season. I lean toward the 7-5 finish, but either way the Wildcats have another bowl opportunity, which would be the first time in school history they've been to a bowl game three straight years.

73. North Carolina State Wolfpack (ACC #12; Atlantic #6)

2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #71 Success: #60 Overall: #72
Mired in mediocrity recently, the Wolfpack won't escape it this season.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #34 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #41
Russell Wilson leads the air attack to higher heights while the rushing game fades.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #20    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #14
Quarterback Russell Wilson had a heckuva season, topping 3,000 passing yards and throwing a gaudy 31 touchdown passes. His 11 interceptions are a reasonable total for that many touchdowns, but he had just one last year, and strung between the two seasons he threw an NCAA-record 379 passes without a pick. Mike Glennon is a capable backup. At receiver the top four are back, including Owen Spencer (765 yards), Jarvis Williams (11 TDs) and tight end George Bryan. The only knock on NC State's passing game is the offensive line, which allowed 32 sacks last season (#91) and loses several starters. But with Wilson and his main receivers back the Wolfpack air attack will only get better.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #89     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #106
Running the ball was not the focus of the Wolfpack offense, but Toney Baker still managed to average 4.8 yards per carry en route to 773 yards on the ground. He departs along with #2 back Jamelle Eugene (309 yards) leaving QB Wilson the top rusher back with 260 yards net (481 gross) and 4 TDs. Curtis Underwood, who rushed for 116 yards two years ago, is slated to start this season. If you're underwhelmed by that, consider also that the offensive line takes a big step back this year, losing three 2-year starters: Julian Williams, Jerail McCuller, and Ted Larsen; as well as half-time starter Andy Barbee. Returning are senior Jake Vermiglio and sophomore R.J. Mattes. North Carolina State's already-tepid rushing game may go further down the drain this fall.

Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #97 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #105
Heavy losses on the defensive line and secondary outweight a rejuvinated LB corps.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #77 Adj. Pass Def: #86 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #93 Sacks: #79
The Wolfpack have had troubles with rushing defense and those troubles are likely to continue as the defensive line is depleted. All four starters from last season are gone including Willie Young who had 8 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, and 7 pass breakups. There is much better news at linebacker where two starters, Dwayne Maddox and Audie Cole (#1 tacker) are back along with '08 starter Nate Irving. The secondary struggled last season and it's a mixed bag. Brandan Bishop and C.J. Wilson return but they lose starter Clem Johnson (#2 tackler) as well as half-time starters DeAndre Morgan and Koyal George, while knee injuries have taken out likely starting cornerback Rashard Smith (out for the year) and backup Jarvis Byrd (out until November). Other than the linebacking corps there's not much to like about this defense as five of the top six tacklers from last year are gone.

Kicking Game: Punter Jeff Ruiz (37.9 average, 34.7 net) returns*, as does placekicker Josh Czajkowski (10 of 12 FG). *Ruiz originally did not return, as he was transferring at the head coach's urging. But new punter Chris Ward was suspended in the spring and Ruiz came back to the team, despite essentially being shunned and made an outcast just months before. What a guy!
Return Game: Receiver T.J. Graham had just one TD catch in '09, but he equaled that as a kickoff returner and averaged an excellent 25 yards per return. He also handled punts to the tune of 10.4 yards per attempt. He's back for what should be another excellent year.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #48
This year's recruiting class ranks at the median of ACC teams, not quite as good as last year's class. Coach Tom O'Brien landed a super blue-chip in Robert Crisp, one of the top offensive line prospects in the country. Running back Anthony Creecy is a blue chip prospect at running back and could help out immediately in that area. Recruits like these should help O'Brien pull N.C. State out of the mire of mediocrity they've been stuck in for several years. That is, if he's around long enough to see that happen, as North Carolina State just got a new athletic director, never a good sign for a struggling head coach.

2009 Recap Another year, another not-quite-winning-season. An achingly dull 7-3 loss to South Carolina kicked off the '09 campaign, and two wins over I-AA creampuffs didn't convince anyone. But the Wolfpack pulled off a major upset, beating Pitt 38-31, a win that grew in import throughout the season. Unfortunately the Wolfpack didn't grow with it, losing six of their next seven conference games, beating only lowly Maryland. Treating it as their bowl game, they got another major upset, beating North Carolina 28-27 to end the season.

NC State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Western Carolina	81%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Central Florida	43%	L
9/16	Thu	vs.	Cincinnati	40%	L
9/25	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	27%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	24%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	41%	L
10/16	Sat	@	East Carolina	56%	W
10/28	Thu	vs.	*Florida State	33%	L
11/6	Sat	@	*Clemson	29%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	50%	W
11/20	Sat	@	*North Carolina	24%	L
11/27	Sat	@	*Maryland	45%	L
Projection Straight up: 3-9 Cumulative: 5-7

2010 Outlook The bad news for NC State fans is that it looks like another middling, not-quite-winning season for the Wolfpack—at best.

Aside from a victory over Western Carolina, a probably win over East Carolina, and a tossup against Wake Forest, N.C. State has few opportunities for celebration. With the odds accumulated the Wolfpack should again be 5-7, for third time in four years.

That's assuming they actually get a few upsets rather than lose the close games on their slate. If that happens it could be a disastrous year akin to Maryland's last year.

But Maryland, and Central Florida, maybe even Cincinnati or Boston College, offer chances to get that 4 and 5th win. With the designated wins so precarious, though, I don't see a way to bowl eligibility.

In fact, I'm pretty uncertain about the Pack getting to 5-7. I think 3-9 looks more likely, or 4-8, which would mean they essentially split the six closest games while retaining the opener as a "gimme." Either way, not a break in the right direction and Tom O'Brien's job may be on the line.

74. Kansas State Wildcats (Big Twelve #10; North #4)

2009 Results: Record: 6-6 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #61 Success: #73 Overall: #62
Year two of the second coming of Bill Snyder in Manhattan.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #68 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #72
The Wildcat offense will be largely unchanged, that is, still sluggish.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #94    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #99
Carson Coffman is set to reclaim the starting QB job after losing it a month into last season to Grant Gregory. Gregory ended with 1,096 yards and 4 TDs to Coffman's 860 yards and 2 TDs. Both had 4 interceptions. But those comparisons are moot since Gregory is gone. Unfortunately for Coffman, also gone are four out of the top five receivers, including top duo Brandon Banks and Attrail Snipes who combined for 1,129 yards. Running back Daniel Thomas is the top returning receiver with 257 yards. Aubrey Quarless (407 yds. in '08) returns from a redshirt year, while transfers Chris Harper (Oregon) and Brodrick Smith (Minnesota) become eligible. They combined for 172 yards at their respective schools in '08. The offensive line should provide fairly solid pass protection this year, too, keeping the decline to a minimum.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #36     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #37
The Wildcats had a pretty strong running game last year led by Daniel Thomas who had 1,265 yards and 11 touchdowns. He's back but key backup Keithen Valentine (357 yards, 6.5 average) is gone along with QB Gregory's solid 308 yard contribution, which Coffman (64 yd. net, 1.2 average) is unlikely to match. The offensive line should pave the way for Thomas even better than last year as four starters return. Seniors Wade Weibert, Kenneth Mayfield, and Zach Kendall join junior Clyde Aufner as only Nick Stringer departs. There are experienced backups on the line too, such as Trevor Viers who started half-time in 2007. Like last year Thomas will have to do the bulk of the work himself unless another RB steps up, but he could have a great season and surpass his totals from last year as K-State's rushing totals increase slightly despite the dip in the ranking.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #53 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #59
A mixed bag at D with plenty of losses but a stronger secondary.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #45 Adj. Pass Def: #54 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #79 Sacks: #80
The K-State defensive line basically returns two half-time starters, Antonio Felder and Raphael Guidry, though '08 starter Brandon Howard returns from a redshirt year to try to maintain the team's decent rushing defense. The big loss is Jeffrey Fitzgerald, who had 7 of the team's 20 sacks. At linebacker they lose Ulla Pomele and John Houlik but K-State often employs a 4-2-5 and Troy Butler returns to the hybrid safety/linebacker slot. The rest of the secondary is in good shape; although they lose #2 tackler Joshua Moore (11 pass breakups) they have #1 tackler Emmanuel Lamur, Tysyn Hartman (5 interceptions), and Stephen Harrison (11 pass breakups) back. The pass defense may improve but the already weak pass rush may be weaker.

Kicking Game: Punter Ryan Doerr (41.2 average) is back along with kicker Josh Cherry (12 of 20 field goals).
Return Game: Leading receiver Brandon Banks was also K-State's key return man. Though he averaged a typical 9.1 yards per punt return on kickoffs he was a monster, averaging 28.9 yards per attempt and taking four kickoffs back all the way. Losing him means a real loss in terms of field position and perhaps a point or two of scoring per game, if you assume the fielding unit can manage one or two scores this season. Attempting to fill his shoes will be aforementioned transfer Brodrick Smith and RB William Powell, and perhaps free safety Hartman, who averaged 13.1 yards on 8 punt returns last season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #112
70-year-old Bill Snyder is trying to return K-State to its glory days, back when the coach was Bill Snyder. He's doing much of the same kind of thing he did the first time around, bringing in a lot of junior college players, but the competition for them has increased lately. This year's recruiting class is small and several players have left or grayshirted, which for technically (and for my ranking purposes) moves them into next year's class. Hence, KSU has a very small class and the weakest in the Big Twelve. Snyder's top recruit this year is a JUCO of course: Adam Davis, a near-blue chip defensive end from closeby Hutchinson, Kansas.

2009 Recap Kansas State has lately seemed a team without an identity, mostly because no one can tell how they're going to play week to week. The 2009 season started off inauspiciously with a 21-17 escape against I-AA Massachusetts, followed by a disastrous 17-15 loss to Louisiana-Lafayette of the Sun Belt. A loss at UCLA and Snyder's return record stood at 1-2 and a few more mistakes away from 0-3. Another win over an FCS team didn't fool anyone, nor did beating Iowa State by a point, 24-23. When they lost to Texas Tech 66-14, the squad was exposed. BUT, the very next week they destroyed Texas A&M 62-14, matching the amount of points they'd scored against the four FBS teams they had played *combined*. They won two of their next three by beating Colorado and rival Kansas to stand 6-4, but lost to Missouri and Nebraska to finish 6-6—bowl eligible but for the fact that two wins were over I-AA teams.

Kansas State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	UCLA	47%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	Missouri State	72%	W
9/18	Sat	N	*Iowa State	52%	W
9/25	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	46%	L
10/7	Thu	vs.	*Nebraska	28%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Kansas	49%	L
10/23	Sat	@	*Baylor	44%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	52%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Texas	32%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Missouri	33%	L
11/20	Sat	@	*Colorado	44%	L
11/27	Sat	@	North Texas	58%	W
Projection Straight up: 4-8 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook It appears to be another tough year for the Wildcats. The schedule is harder—only one FCS team. That does mean that 6-6 will get them to a bowl; but getting to 6-6 is going to be hard.

Missouri State is one early win they can count on, and UCLA, Iowa State, and UCF could all be wins—or none could. Go 4-0 out of the gate, however, and they'll have no problem. But 2-2 is the most likely outcome.

After that the pickins are slim. Kansas on the road and Oklahoma State at home are essentially tossups that they'll likely split. Nebraska, Texas, and Missouri are very likely losses of course.

They'll need to win both the tossups or get an upset somewhere. They finish with North Texas so they'll want to be at least 5-6 going in. By my estimates they'll be 3-8 and then 4-8 by beating North Texas. The cumulative projection barely rounds up to 6-6. I reckon this means they'll finish 5-7, probably losing to Kansas on a last second field goal that hits the upright, once again a game short of qualifying for a bowl game.

75. UAB Blazers (C-USA #4; East #3)

2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #91 Success: #88 Overall: #91
The offense slips without Joe Webb but the defense makes big gains.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #78 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #83
Replacing Joe Webb's passing and rushing are both tough jobs.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #106    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #103
Going from a quarterback that threw for just shy of 2,300 yards to one who threw for 39 yards should cause a plummet in your passing production. While sophomore David Isabelle might not match Joe Webb's 21 touchdowns or even his 60% completion rate, his production might not be far off. He'll have top receivers Frantrell Forrest and (tight end) Jeffery Anderson (956 yards, 14 TDs combined) back; in all, four of the top five return, including senior starter Roddell Carter. And he'll have an even better offensive line in front of him than Webb had (24 sacks allowed). All this of course assumes Isabelle gets the job. But whoever does comes into a pretty good situation, and the production drop needn't be severe as the passing game may receive a bit more emphasis than it did before.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #13     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #21
The harder job is replacing Webb's ground production, which was huge: 1,427 yards and 11 touchdowns. Much of that, too, might be Isabelle's job—he was the team's #2 rusher with 288 yards, and he even had a higher average (9.0!) than Webb (6.3). Most of his runs were set plays, as he only attempted 14 passes last season. The top true running back, Rashaud Slaughter, had 250 yards and departs, leaving Justin Brooks and Daniel Borne (combined 399 yards) as the only options along with JUCO Pat Shed who probably won the job in the spring. Whoever carries the ball will be running behind a line that was good last year and will be better with four starters returning. They lose 4-year starting center Jake Seitz which is a really big deal to the team, but Greg Calhoun, Greg Bulls, Matt McCants, and Caleb Thomas are all back, and '08 starter Terrence Edge returns to the fold. And the other talent is so good that only three or four of those guys are expected to start. Running production is still bound to fall without Webb and if they choose a pure passer over Isabelle at QB it could fall a lot farther, but there are enough sound options to keep rushing production at or near a top 25 level.

Defense (7-9 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #99 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #39
A big defensive improvement is in store, meaning the passing defense won't rank dead last anymore.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #68 Adj. Pass Def: #120 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #117 Sacks: #86
UAB's defense is a confusing mess in terms of what constitutes a returning starter; if you count strictly who is back you get seven (roughly). But many started part-time or half-time or moved around but they are back, so it's easier to keep track of who isn't there and by that measure they lose only 2 starters: defensive lineman Anthony Barnes and corner/safety Brandon Carlisle. The defensive line has Tim Davis, David DeCordova, and Elliot Hennigan back, with '07-'08 starters Bryant Turner (6 sacks) and D.J. Reese in the mix. At linebacker Lamanski Ware is the only true returning starter but they didn't lose anyone. Daniel White started about half-time, Keon Harris started part-time, and a bunch of others make up the rest. The secondary is where they really need help as their pass defense was deplorable. Terrell Springs (10 pass breakups) and #1 tackler Hiram Atwater are back with Chase Daniel who has started half-time the last two years. The upshot of all this is that they're really loaded with experience, returning 12 of the top 13 tacklers from last year and should be much, much better in 2010.

Kicking Game: Punter Trey Ragland (42.8 average) and kicker Josh Zahn (14 of 21 FG) are both back.
Return Game: Leading receiver Forrest averaged a solid 21.9 yards on kickoff returns, while #4 receiver Nick Adams takes over punt returns for the departing Jim Mitchell (6.0 average).
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #94
Neil Callaway's UAB squads have had 2 wins, 4 wins, and 5 wins. He's making gains without scoring high-powered recruiting classes, even by C-USA standards. This year's class ranks perhaps ninth when you factor out several players who didn't qualify or are grayshirting. One recruit, Chris Lofton, opted to sign a baseball contract instead. But it looks like running back Pat Shed might be a diamond in the rough for the Blazers.

2009 Recap The Blazers finished 5-7 last year while beating only one winning team (Southern Miss) and losing to just one losing team (Texas A&M, who lost a bowl game and shouldn't count). After starting 2-5 they won three in a row to even their record and give them bowl hopes, but fell to East Carolina on the road and UCF at home.

UAB 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	61%	W
9/11	Sat	@	*SMU	45%	L
9/18	Sat	vs.	Troy	60%	W
9/25	Sat	@	Tennessee	44%	L
10/6	Wed	@	*Central Florida	40%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*UTEP	68%	W
10/23	Sat	@	Mississippi State	33%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	42%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Marshall	57%	W
11/13	Sat	vs.	*East Carolina	61%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	68%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*Rice	62%	W
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook This year a bowl appearance is all but guaranteed if they've improved as much on defense as I expect. They have seven games on their schedule that they should win, and a couple more than they could win.

The Blazers host two Sun Belt teams, both of whom they should beat, with a visit to SMU in between. If they go 3-0, things are really looking up.

I won't call for them to beat Tennessee on the road but they may surprise people with their resiliency. The same goes for the Central Florida, Mississippi State, and Southern Miss road games, all of which look like losses.

But they have UTEP in between those and finish at home against Marshall, East Carolina, and Memphis before visiting Rice. If they don't get down on themselves for being 3-5 they should win all four of those and go 7-5. The cumulative projection actually agrees, so how can I argue? Except to say that the SMU games is a tossup. Win that one and at minimum they have insurance against getting upset. As I see it they already have a 1-game cushion for bowl eligibility.

August 18, 2010 at 01:22 AM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 17, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #76 to #80: Tulsa, SMU, Iowa State, Arizona State, Utah State

This installment covers teams from #76 to #80. To see the full list, click here.

76. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (C-USA #6; West #3)

2009 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #88 Success: #95 Overall: #88
The Golden Hurricane's offense will carry them in 2010.

Offense (9 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #86 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #56
With lots of starters back at skills positions and the O-line, Tulsa's offense rebounds.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #36    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #17
Originally at Texas, G.J. Kinne started for Tulsa last season and despite getting almost no protection (46 sacks, 119th in adjusted pass protection) passed for 2,732 yards and 22 TDs. He completed 60% and had a reasonable 10 interceptions. He'll be a junior this season and has star receiver Damaris Johnson (1,131 yards) back along with the #2 and #4 in yardage, h-back Charles Clay (530 yards) and WR Trae Johnson (311, 8 TDs) who had a 1,000-yard season as a freshman in 2007. They lose #3 Slick Shelley (511) and #5 A.J. Whitmore (238) is gone due to academics but Oklahoma transfer Jameel Owens won a hardship waiver to play this season. The offensive line can only get better this year as they lose just one starter. With a year of experience under his belt, a full crew of receivers, and probably far fewer sacks bogging him down Kinne should have a great year and Tulsa's passing game will be back at top 25 level.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #91     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #66
The Tulsa rushing attack was so weak that QB Kinne was the team's leading rusher with 393 yards, just ahead of Jamad Williams' 389, even after subtracting out 318 sack yards from his total. In fact, Kinne lost more yards than the #3 rusher (Charles Clay) gained for the year. The offensive line returns the equivalent of four starters: Brandon Thomas, Clint Anderson, and Trent Dupy return along with half-time starters David Lazenby and Tyler Holmes, who was full-time in '08. 3-year starter Curt Puckett is the only loss. With everyone back except Charles Opeseyitan (218 yards last year) who was kicked off the team and a much better offensive line, production is sure to increase.

Defense (5 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #87 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #95
On D, Tulsa loses their leaders in sacks and interceptions.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #88 Adj. Pass Def: #79 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #110 Sacks: #36
Tulsa's defense had one bright spot: the pass rush. They sacked opposing quarterbacks 25 times to rank #36 in adjusted statistics. This year they lose their #1 sack artist, Un'tavious Scott (6 sacks) along with starter Wilson Garrison in the D-line. Returning starters Odrick Ray and Cory Dorris combined for just 4. Meanwhile at linebacker they lose Mike Bryan and James Lockett (7 sacks combined) while returning Tanner Antle (2.5). Apart from sacking the quarterback the pass defense was terrible and could get worse. #1 tackler DeAundre Brown (102 tackles) plays the hybrid LB/CB 'spur' position and Charles Davis, who started in '07 and '08, is back with half-time starter Dexter McCoil, but they lose John Destin (4 interceptions) and Kenny Sims (10 pass breakups). The defense looks a bit weaker and will probably sink in the sack rankings.

Kicking Game: Michael Such returns at punter after booting and excellent 44.5 per kick, while placekicker Kevin Fitzpatrick was nearly perfect hitting 13 of 14 field goals.
Return Game: Leading receiver Damaris Johnson was also a very dangerous return man. He averaged a fantastic 14.2 yards per punt return and took one back for a touchdown. On kickoffs he averaged 24.6 yards. He will continue to put fear into opponents and should have another TD or two this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #76
Todd Graham had coached some high-powered offenses here but last season was a disappointment without offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn in charge. Last year's recruiting class was better and this season's is middle of the pack for the C-USA. Only a handful of players are consensus high-potential recruits.

2009 Recap Tulsa jumped out to a 4-1 start but the pickins were easy: Tulane, New Mexico, New Mexico State, and Rice all turned out to be among the worse FBS teams, while Oklahoma destroyed the Hurricane 45-0. They played Boise State surprisingly close, 28-21, and later nearly won a shootout with Houston falling 46-45 after a late drive, onside kick and field goal sank them. That loss took the stuffing out of Tulsa, who was by then 4-5 and were beaten easily by East Carolina and Southern Miss. The Hurricane got one last win, in overtime 33-30 against Memphis to finish 5-7.

Tulsa 2010 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sun	@	*East Carolina	55%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	73%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Oklahoma State	44%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	Central Arkansas	71%	W
10/2	Sat	@	*Memphis	61%	W
10/9	Sat	@	*SMU	47%	L
10/16	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	82%	W
10/30	Sat	@	Notre Dame	37%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Rice	62%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*Houston	34%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*UTEP	67%	W
11/27	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	48%	L
Projection Straight up: 7-5 Cumulative: 7-5

2010 Outlook Tulsa should be back to their winning ways this season and could start 2010 at 4-1 just like 2009. But they won't drop six games in a row following that as their overall schedule is pretty easy and the offense should be a lot better. In fact, starting 6-1 is not a stretch.

If they can beat East Carolina on the road, Bowling Green and Central Arkansas should be no problem at home, and they have a shot at starting 4-0. At worst they should end September 2-2.

They should defeat Memphis and Tulane and have a good shot at SMU. Notre Dame and Houston are the toughest teams on the schedule but Rice and UTEP are probable wins and Southern Miss at home is another possibility.

Both the Win-Loss and Cumulative projections say the Hurricane will finish 7-5, but to me that looks like a minimum. I think 8-4 is more likely and 9-3 would not be shocking. The road games at Houston and Notre Dame are the only ones I count Tulsa out of, though winning at in-state rival Oklahoma State will be tough. Their designated "wins" above are all pretty solid so it's hard to imagine them not reaching bowl eligibility unless their terrible luck from '09 continues.

77. SMU Mustangs (C-USA #6; West #3) polls: AP#46 USA/Coaches #49

2009 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Nevada 45-10 (Hawaii Bowl) Poll finish: USA #43
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #78 Success: #68 Overall: #77
June Jones' team consolidates its gains this season before further advancement in years ahead.

Offense (6 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #66 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #81
Two summer losses sink the offense's expected improvement.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #26    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #41
Kyle Padron had an excellent freshman season. Forced into action when Bo Levi Mitchell (1,725 yards, 12 TD, 10 int) had ailments Padron was remarkably efficient, hitting 67% of his passes for 1,922 yards and a 10:4 TD:int ratio. Mitchell transferred defaulting the job to Padron while New Mexico State transfer J.J. McDermott adds experience at backup. The Mustangs lose top receiver Emmanuel Sanders' 1,339 yards but had the next three back, starters Aldrick Robinson (800 yards), Terrance Wilkerson (527), and Cole Beasley (493)—that is, until Wilkerson was declared ineligible. The offensive line seemed to be improved from last season's 36 sacks (#112 in nation, adj.) but lost Josh LeRibeus to academics, too. Thus instead of taking another step forward passing production may fade a bit. Despite the unexpected loss of a starter at both wide receiver and O-line, Padron should throw for over 3,000 yards in 2010.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #112     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #115
There's less hope for a great year in the rushing game, but there's really not very far to fall from last year's #112 ranking. Although the Mustangs boasted 1,118 yard rusher Shawnbrey McNeal (12 TDs) the defenses they faced were poor and no other back was productive in June Jones' pass-oriented offense. Zach Line did score 7 touchdowns in just 189 yards but true freshmen Darryl Fields or Kevin Pope might win the top spot. The offensive line will be better but after losing LeRibeus the gains are less pronounced. Back are Kelvin Beachum, J.T. Brooks, and Bryce Tennison, while Blake McJunkin started most of 2008. Gone is 2-year starting center Mitch Enright. The stronger line will help but unless one of the freshman is a star the running game will be poor in 2010.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #82 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #76
The defense will make a move toward more respectability in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #74 Adj. Pass Def: #65 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #63 Sacks: #91
Two starters, Marquis Frazier (4 sacks) and Taylor Thompson (5.5 sacks) return at defensive end on the 3-man line. At linebacker they lose Chase Kennemer, easily the team's top tackler with 135 including 11 tackles for loss. But Pete Fleps and Youri Yenga are back and former starter Justin Smart joins them. The secondary loses Rock Dennis (5 interceptions) and Bryan McCann (10 tackles for loss) which hurts, but Sterling Moore (11 tackles for loss) and Chris Banjo (#2 tackler) return. Overall 8 of the top 11 tacklers are back and the defense should improve.

Kicking Game: Matt Szymanski returns to both punt (41.9 average last year) and kick (11 of 16 field goals) for the Mustangs.
Return Game: Some poor soul will attempt to adequately replace Emmanuel Sanders who had an excellent 13.8 yard punt return average and one touchdown return. It was to be J.R. McConico but he isn't eligible anymore. Chris Butler averaged 20.4 yards on 14 kickoff returns, and he'll see more duty as Bryan McCann (24.2 ave.) moves on. It's doubtful the return squad will be quite as effective this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #84
June Jones made a great leap forward with SMU last season as the Mustangs went from 1-11 to 8-5 including a bowl win. The decent recruiting class this year ranks in the top half of the conference. The two freshman running backs mentioned in the Ground Game section will be among the most prominent new faces on the team.

2009 Recap Southern Methodist barely beat I-AA Stephen F. Austin but followed that up with a win over UAB to stand at 2-0, already beating the previous year's win total. Unfortunately they took a step back by losing to lowly Washington State in an overtime heartbreaker. After losing to TCU the Mustangs bounced back with an important win over East Carolina and lost again in overtime, this time to Navy at home. But they won two close games in a row—31-28 over Rice and 35-31 over UTEP—to put them at 6-4 and bowl eligible, and they beat Tulane for good measure. SMU's best effort of the year was the 45-10 crushing of Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl.

SMU 2010 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sun	@	Texas Tech	21%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	*UAB	55%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	Washington State	68%	W
9/24	Fri	vs.	TCU	18%	L
10/2	Sat	@	*Rice	61%	W
10/9	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	52%	W
10/16	Sat	@	Navy	41%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Houston	39%	L
10/30	Sat	@	*Tulane	75%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*UTEP	61%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Marshall	56%	W
11/27	Sat	@	*East Carolina	54%	W
Projection Straight up: 8-4 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook On the whole the team is roughly as good as it was last season, so it shouldn't be a surprise that they're picked to go about 7-5 again.

It's easier to look at the losses. Texas Tech and TCU are very likely in the L column. Navy and Houston are going to be tough. UAB is a tossup.

Among the wins, the Mustangs will surely get revenge against Washington State. Rice on the road and UAB at home lead toward SMU. And the last four games should all be wins of varying certainty.

While that adds up to 7 wins, and by cumulative odds only amounts to 6-6, beating Tulsa at home would put them at 8-4. And in reality a 10-2 season is not much of a stretch but would require quite a bit of luck. The Mustangs could also split the closer games (Rice/Tulsa/Marshall/East Carolina) and finish 5-7, but any lower than that would require a lot of bad luck. I'm very confident that SMU will repeat as a bowl team, and they'll most likely repeat their 7-5 '09 finish.

78. Iowa State Cyclones (Big 12 #12; North #6)

2009 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Beat Minnesota 14-13 (Insight Bowl) Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #68 Success: #63 Overall: #70
An improving Cyclone offense is undermined by a wilting defense.

Offense (7 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #90 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #74
With dual-threat quarterbacks and a solid running game the Cyclone offense moves up the ladder.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #80    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #58
Austen Arnaud didn't have a super-productive '09 through the air, passing for just over 2,000 yards and throwing 14 touchdowns—and 13 interceptions. But he made it worth it via his athleticism, as he was a true dual threat, as was backup Jerome Tiller. Both are back, Arnaud for his senior year and Tiller for his soph, and Arnaud has been working on his passing and indeed improved throughout last season in general. While leading receiver Marquis Hamilton (606 yards) is gone, five of the next six are back including Jake Williams and Darius Darks who combined for 7 TD catches. The offensive line gave up just 16 sacks last season, #11 in the nation adjusted for opposition, though that's partially due to have two running quarterbacks. Overall the passing game should be much more productive in the 2nd year of Paul Rhoads' spread system.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #25     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #20
Iowa State was one of the better rushing teams in the nation last season. Facing tough rushing defenses in the Big 12 they were 35th in per-game yardage and in the top 25 when corrected for opposition. They should be even better this season as nearly all their ground production returns, including top back Alexander Robinson who had 1,195 yards and 6 touchdowns. #3 rusher Jeremiah Schwartz is gone but Arnaud and Tiller were #2 and #4 with 561 and 216, and 8 and 2 touchdowns respectively. Then there's Florida transfer Bo Williams, who had 50 yards—in just 2 carries. He needed knee surgery in the off-season, which may explain why he didn't get that third carry. The offensive line returns starters Ben Lamaak, Alex Alvarez, and Kelechi Osemele and should be comparable to last year's solid line, despite losing Reggie Stephens and Scott Haughton, who was dismissed in the summer for violating team rules. If not for the latter the rushing attack could have been in the top 15 but now they'll have to settle for the top 20.

Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #46 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #84
Key losses and a weak linebacker corps could leave the Cyclone D softer.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #93 Adj. Pass Def: #104 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #87 Sacks: #110
The problems with last year's defensive line won't be solved but things should be better: two starters return from last year and another is back from '08. Bailey Johnson and Patrick Neal are joined by 3-year starter Rashawn Parker who took a medical redshirt last season. They do lose Christopher Lyle (the team leader with five sacks), Nate Frere, and potential starter Austin Alburtis who graduated and left school since the spring, but overall this group should help improve the rush D. No starters return at linebacker, with both #1 tackler Jesse Smith (135 tackles) and #3 Fred Garrin gone. In the secondary, James Sims (5 interceptions) and Leonard Johnson are the team's top returning tacklers, but #2 tackler James Smith is gone. In all the team loses its top three tacklers and has little experience at linebacker, though they will employ a 4-2-5 much of the time to reduce that problem.

Kicking Game: Grant Mahoney is back at placekicker, hoping to improve his 13 of 20 performance, while Mike Brandtner moves on after averaging 40.8 yards per punt. His replacement will be true freshman Kirby Van Der Kamp.
Return Game: D-backs David Sims and Leonard Johnson returned kickoffs for the Cyclones, with Sims averaging 23.4 yards per return and Johnson 3 yards fewer. Receiver Josh Lenz returned punts at a dismal 4.8 yard clip and will try, try again this season.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #56
Paul Rhodes was ISU's third coach in four years when he was hired to replace Gene Chizik, who went back to Auburn whence he came, after taking a 4-8 Cyclone team and turning in 3-9 and 2-10 seasons. Rhoads—also a former Auburn defensive coordinator—took the team to a bowl (and won it) on his first try, though with Chizik's recruits of course. But Rhoads' second recruiting class is the equal of Chizik's from his two years here, good for about 9th place in the Big 12. JUCOs Anthony Young and Chris Young, a D-back from California and a wide receiver from Texas respectively, show Rhoads' ability to recruit solid players in national hotbeds into a more remote midwest location. There are about a half dozen recruits from each of California, Florida, and Texas in the 2010 class.

2009 Recap After two dismal seasons with Gene Chizik, Iowa State took Paul Rhoads from Auburn when Chizik bailed to be the Tigers' head coach. By the fourth game the 'Clones had won as many games with Rhoads as they had with Chizik, as ISU lost to Iowa while beating North Dakota State, Kent State, and Army by convincing scores. They lost to both Kansas teams but beat Baylor to top Chizik's total, then upset Nebraska 9-7—in Lincoln—in a wild game where the Cornhuskers fumbled away numerous certain touchdowns near the goal line. Whomped by Texas A&M and Oklahoma State, the Cyclones beat Colorado for their key sixth win before falling to Missouri. Against Minnesota in the Insight Bowl ISU played like they wanted to win unlike the Gophers, who fumbled away the game in Iowa State territory like many of the Cyclones' victims did.

Iowa State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/2	Thu	vs.	Northern Illinois	50%	W
9/11	Sat	@	Iowa	29%	L
9/18	Sat	N	*Kansas State	48%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	Northern Iowa	49%	L
10/2	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	26%	L
10/9	Sat	vs.	Utah	41%	L
10/16	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	14%	L
10/23	Sat	@	*Texas	24%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	53%	W
11/6	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	26%	L
11/13	Sat	@	*Colorado	42%	L
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	37%	L
Projection Straight up: 2-10 Cumulative: 4-8

2010 Outlook With a much tougher schedule and an overall poorer team, it might be a crash back to reality this season. The Cyclones are only favored by my system in two games, NIU and against Kansas (surprisingly). But several games are close so the cumulative projection grants them four wins—still a letdown from last season, but not as bad as 2-10.

First the Cyclones host a very improved Northern Illinois team, then it's on to Iowa City where the Cyclones always play hard but will likely lose. The new "neutral field" series with Kansas State continues and the Wildcats have a slight edge. Then Northern Iowa, who nearly beat the Hawkeyes last season, comes to Ames. More about that game below.

Utah also comes to town, and the Big Twelve season has its share of trouble like Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, and a revenge-minded Nebraska.

The key to ISU's season comes early. They could quite easily emerge from September 3-1 and that would set the tone for the rest of the year. Though the 'Clones will be without David Sims for Northern Illinois, the Huskies should be missing some key defensive players which gives ISU the edge. Kansas State could lose on a neutral field. And certainly Iowa State can (and should) beat Northern Iowa; the Panthers' rating is a holdover from last year, and since then they've lost most of their offense including the entire O-line. Utah and Colorado are other win possibilities.

I'm guessing that Iowa State will beat UNI pretty easily, split the games with the Kansas teams, then beat one or two of Northern Illinois, Utah, and Colorado. That puts them at 3-9, maybe 4-8. They'd need all the luck in the world—or just a team that slightly exceeds my lowered expectations—to repeat with a bowl berth.

79. Arizona State Sun Devils (Pac-10 #9) polls: USA/Coaches #42

2009 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #59 Success: #78 Overall: #60
ASU will again sub-par in a strong Pac-10.

Offense (3 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #94 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #117
Heavy losses lead to a potentially impotent offense in 2010.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #71    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #112
The problem with ASU's passing attack this year isn't at quarterback. True, they lose last year's starter Danny Sullivan. But he passed for fewer than 2,000 yards, completed only 54%, and had 9 interceptions to go with just 10 TDs. Backup Samson Szakacsy completed 64% and had a 4:1 ratio, and with other backup Brock Osweiler played in 11 games combined. Also, Steven Threet transfers in from Michigan where he started for the Wolverine in 2008. He really wasn't fantastic there, but the point is there is quite a bit of experience at quarterback despite the loss of the starter. The problem starts in the receiving corps, where the Sun Devils lose their two top guys, Kyle Williams and Chris McGaha who combined for 1,488 yards and 12 TDs. Kerry Taylor and Gerell Robinson (537 yards, 0 TDs) are back and Aaron Pflugrad comes in from Oregon (168 yards there). But then there's the offensive line, which yielded a respectable 27 sacks in 2009 but loses all but one starter. With middling quality at quarterback, fewer targets, and a potentially porous O-line the ASU passing game is projected to flounder in 2010. This doesn't take into account the plan to have the offense wide open and passing all the time, which should lead to bigger numbers. But regardless of offensive emphasis, the quality and efficiency of the passing game probably won't be impressive.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #86     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #113
The rushing game doesn't look much better for the Devils. Four of the five top gainers are gone including top back Dmitri Nance (795 yards); #2 Cameron Marshall (280) is back and will start as a sophomore. The offensive line won't give him much support this season, as they lost Shawn Lauvao to the NFL, Thomas Alteiri and Tom Njunge to graduation, Jon Hargis to a spring ACL tear, and probable starter Zach Schlink and backup Matt Hustad to retirement both owing to knee injuries. Garth Gerhart is back and Hargis' rehab is going faster than expected so he should be in for the last 4-6 games, but on the whole the problems with the offensive line will only be worse this year. Combine that with a move to a shotgun passing system and rushing production will fall.

Defense (4 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #24 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #38
The defense will still be strong but not top 25 quality.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #11 Adj. Pass Def: #38 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #28 Sacks: #45
The Sun Devils had a great rushing defense in '09 and this year it could be among the best in the nation. Three starters return to the defensive line: Lawrence Guy, Saia Falahola, and James Brooks who combined for 12 sacks. At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Mike Nixon and #3 Travis Goethel but #2 Vontaze Burfict is back. ASU's pass defense was also good, nearly top 25, but it will take a hit this season as they lose starters Pierre Singfield, Jarrell Holman, Ryan McFoy, and Terrell Carr, their #4, 5, 6, and 8 tacklers who combined for 18 pass breakups and 6 interceptions. The only good news is the return of Omar Bolden from medical redshirt last year. With five of their top six tacklers gone from last year the defense will suffer, but the excellent defensive line will keep things under control.

Kicking Game: Excellent kicker Thomas Weber was injured last season and hit just 8 of 13 field goals, while Trevor Hankins recorded a great 44.2 yard average per punt. Both should be full strength this year and are among the brighter spots on the team this season.
Return Game: Receiver Jamal Miles averaged a fair 19.1 yards per kickoff return in 2009, and he'll also handle punt returns this year replacing Kyle Williams who averaged a solid 10.0.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #23
Dennis Erickson is back on the hot seat a mere two years after a 10-3 season thanks to back-to-back losing years. While this season might not alleviate that, this season's top 25 recruiting class is something he can point to for the future. Three California recruits—RB Deantre Lewis, WR George Bell, and offensive tackle Brice Schwab—are consensus blue chips. The class only ranks in the middle of the Pac-10 since everyone recruited well this season. And if this year goes poorly Erickson might not be around to see the group develop.

2009 Recap Two wins over I-AA foes didn't prepare ASU for the real world. Though they played Georgia close, 20-17 on the road, and beat both Washington squads to stand 4-2 it was all downhill from there. They fell to Stanford 33-14 but played Cal (23-21) and USC (14-9) surprisingly close before losing to Oregon and UCLA. They lost to rival Arizona at home, 20-17 for a 4-8 year.

Arizona State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	vs.	Portland State	82%	W
9/11	Sat	vs.	Northern Arizona	64%	W
9/18	Sat	@	Wisconsin	23%	L
9/25	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	24%	L
10/2	Sat	@	*Oregon State	32%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Washington	29%	L
10/23	Sat	@	*California	35%	L
10/30	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	67%	W
11/6	Sat	@	*Southern Cal	36%	L
11/13	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	34%	L
11/26	Fri	vs.	*UCLA	43%	L
12/2	Thu	@	*Arizona	36%	L
Projection Straight up: 3-9 Cumulative: 5-7

2010 Outlook Once again, ASU plays two I-AA teams to kick off the season. That will get them two guaranteed wins but it also effectively prevents them from becoming bowl-eligible.

It might not really matter, as the only other sure win on the schedule is Washington State. The Pac-10 is very good this year and ASU is one of the few odd men out. Other than UCLA at home in late November they aren't likely to have much of a shot at winning another conference game.

But upsets happen, and the cumulative projection gives ASU five wins. It's hard to see exactly where the fifth win comes from. Probably not in the early murderous stretch of Wisconsin, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, and Cal. Later on, when they'll probably have Hargis back on the O-line, they face USC, Stanford, UCLA, and Arizona, and they could conceivably win two of the three. But getting 6 wins is even more of a stretch, and they need seven to reach a bowl game. I'm guessing that they'll repeat at 4-8, and that the defense will get them most of their wins this season.

80. Utah State Aggies (WAC #6)

2009 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #92 Success: #101 Overall: #92
Utah State makes a run at bowl eligibility in 2010.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #70 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #65
The loss of two key players keeps the Aggies' offense at a virtual standstill.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #39    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #33
The good news for Utah State is that Diondre Borel returns at quarterback. Borel threw for 2,885 yards last season with an impressive 17 to 4 TD to interception ratio. The bad news is that leading receiver Stanley Morrison is gone. Morrison had 616 receiving yards and tossed 2 TD passes himself, but needed foot surgery in the offseason. Worse, RB Robert Turbin was the #2 pass catcher and is out as well, leaving Eric Moats (400 yards) the only one back of the top six. But there are some highly touted new faces, too. Borel accomplished all he did last season with unreliable protection that ranked #110 giving up 35 sacks; four starters back on the line should give him ample time (if not ample time, at least *more* time) to find the new receivers who must step forward.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #34     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #45
Robert Turbin rushed for 1,296 yards and 13 TDs (a 6.3 yd. average) but tore his ACL in the spring and will probably get a medical redshirt. Without him, QB Borel is the leading rusher back with 498 yards and 6 TDs (even after subtracting a full 284 yards of sacks). Michael Smith (also a 6.3 yd. average) and Derrvin Speight combined for 500 yards and will have to step up. It's too bad Turbin was hurt as he would have excelled behind the more experienced O-line, where Brennan McFadden departs but Spencer Johnson and Tariq Polley (both seniors) are back along with juniors Philip Gapelu and Robert Hill. Backups Ty Rogers and Funaki Asisi combined to start all of 2008. So last year's weak offensive line is a lot stronger, but without their main guy production will slide.

Defense (8 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #102 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #82
Expect better results from the Aggie defense in 2010.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #106 Adj. Pass Def: #94 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #104 Sacks: #111
The Aggie defensive line returns three senior starters in Sean Enesi, Daniel Gurrola, and Devin Johnson, while their top player Junior Keiaho joins the linebacker corps. Joining him there are returning starters Bobby Wagner (#1 tackler w/115) and Kyle Gallagher giving the front seven six returning starters. The secondary loses James Brindley (#2 tackler) and Kejon Murphy but has seniors Rajric Coleman and Chris Randle back. Five of the top six tacklers are back and the stronger front seven should help out with the dismal rushing defense and pass rush.

Kicking Game: Punter Peter Caldwell (42.2 average) returns but kicker Chris Ulinski (13 of 21 FG) must be replaced, either by Caldwell or hotshot freshman Nick Diaz.
Return Game: Michael Smith will take over punt return duties from Morrison (8.0 average) while Kerwynn Williams is back after averaging a strong 25.0 yards per kickoff return.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #95
Gary Anderson went 4-8 in his first season as the Aggie coach but that was already the most wins they've had in a season since 2002. The 2010 recruiting class is about 6th in the WAC and slightly better perhaps than last year's coaching transition class.

2009 Recap Utah State started the year 1-5 due to playing Utah, Texas A&M, BYU, and Nevada, but that still doesn't excuse the loss to New Mexico State. In addition to Southern Utah they eventually beat Louisiana Tech, San Jose State, and Idaho (in a 52-49 shootout).

Utah State 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	@	Oklahoma	15%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	87%	W
9/18	Sat	vs.	*Fresno State	47%	L
9/25	Sat	@	San Diego State	52%	W
10/1	Fri	vs.	Brigham Young	43%	L
10/9	Sat	@	*Louisiana Tech	42%	L
10/23	Sat	vs.	*Hawaii	61%	W
10/30	Sat	@	*Nevada	41%	L
11/6	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	82%	W
11/13	Sat	@	*San Jose State	72%	W
11/20	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	47%	L
12/4	Sat	@	*Boise State	12%	L
Projection Straight up: 5-7 Cumulative: 6-6

2010 Outlook How close will the Aggies get to bowl eligibility? For once, going 6-6 is not out of reach for this team.

Four wins are almost guaranteed with Idaho State, New Mexico State, and San Jose State being easy victories and Hawaii at home not far behind. San Diego State is a crucial game early on.

Home games against Fresno State and Idaho are important, too. BYU, Louisiana Tech and Nevada are a bit more of a stretch, while bookended games against Oklahoma and Boise State are the only ones the Aggies can be completely counted out of.

The cumulative projection calls for a 6-6 season, and it's going to be close between that and 5-7. The early games will give an indication: If the Aggies start off 3-1, it's almost a certainty they'll be bowl eligible. Start 1-3 and the odds go way down, though there is still hope. It's too bad that Turbin and Morrison couldn't have amped up the offense along with the defense; with those two back the bowl question wouldn't be "if", but "where." Instead, Aggie fans will have to sweat it out all year in what should be a very entertaining season.

August 17, 2010 at 02:22 PM in 2010 Preview | Permalink | Comments (0)

August 16, 2010

2010 Pre-season Rankings - #81 to #85: Illinois, Kansas, Kent State, Army, Wyoming

This installment covers teams from #81 to #85. To see the full list, click here.

81. Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten #9)

2009 Results: Record: 3-9 Bowl: None Poll finish: N/A
2009 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #81 Success: #93 Overall: #81
Post-Juice Williams, the Illini have a new look on offense and defense.

Offense (5 RS)    '09 Adj. Scoring Offense: #81 '10 Projected Scoring Offense: #89
With four-year starter Juice Williams gone the offense will have a new look and growing pains.
• Passing Game     '09 Adj. Pass Ranking: #79    '10 Projected Pass Ranking: #108
After four up and down seasons Juice Williams will no longer guide the Illini, leaving a question mark at quarterback. With Eddie McGee (303 passing yards, 1 TD, 3 int.) moving to wide receiver and Jacob Charest (382, 2, 2) quitting the team, that leaves exactly zero game experience among three freshman at the position. Nathan Scheelhaase was named the starter, and it's not as if Williams' passing numbers from last year were gaudy: 1,632 yards, 12 TDs. But top receivers Arrelious Benn (490 yards) and Chris Duvalt (361) are gone (Benn was hobbled by injury most of '09). Florida transfer Jarred Fayson didn't live up to the hype last season (218 yards, 1 TD). The offense is moving to a more standard passing game while at the same time keeping the option of running the wildcat with McGee. The offensive line gave up 29 sacks last year and won't be any better. Scheelhaase is supposedly looking good, but I think the offense will realize its bread and butter will be on the ground.
• Ground Game     '09 Adj. Rush Ranking: #22     '10 Projected Rush Ranking: #30
With little success in the air Illinois made most of their gains via rushing, and between Mikel Leshore and Jason Ford had 1,322 yards and 9 TDs. Both are back. Of course, QB Williams had 507 yards himself but Scheelhaase is mobile if not a runner like Williams and McGee may still get snaps at wildcat (he had 115 yards and 2 TDs rushing). The bulk of the ground production is back and the offensive line should be just as good at paving the way as three starters return. Gone are 3-year starter Jon Asamoah and center Erick Block but Randall Hunt, Jeff Allen, and Hugh Thornton are back while Ryan Palmer moves into one open slot. While the Illini rushing attack won't be of top 25 quality like last year due to Williams' absence, they will still get the job done.

Defense (6 RS) '09 Adj. Scoring Defense: #80 '10 Projected Scoring Defense: #75
A much strong group of linebackers form the heart of this year's Illini defense.
• '09 Stats: Adj. Rush Def: #81 Adj. Pass Def: #47 Per-Attempt Pass Def: #80 Sacks: #62
Though Illinois is planning to mix it up on defense, they were essentially a 4-3 last year and will continue to set up that way often. They lose a lot of key players from a defensive line that already had trouble against the run, including Doug Pilcher and Josh Brent who struggled with academics and decided to go pro. Essentially one starter is back as Clay Nurse (5.5 sacks) and Corey Liuget both started six games last season. The linebacking corps is strong, however, with Nate Bussey, Russell Ellington, and #1 tackler Ian Thomas all back along with Martez Wilson who started in 2008. Thus the Illini are well-situated to use a 3-4 and with Brent gone may use that formation more. The secondary was poor last year—the entire team registered just 5 interceptions—and might not improve much this year as Tavon Wilson (7 pass breakups, 1 int) is the only starter back. Senior Travon Bellamy started in 2008, while Terry Hawthorne (1 int) started part-time last year but he'll miss time with a foot fracture, and Walter Aikens had law trouble, served a jail sentence, and was dismissed from the team. But overall the defense has four of its top five tacklers back and returns M. Wilson so they should be stronger this season, if only slightly.

Kicking Game: Anthony Santella returns at punter; he averaged 41.3 per kick last season. Derek Dimke took over as placekicker and hit 5 of 5 after Matt Eller only made 4 of 11. Both are back.
Return Game: Receiver Fayson took back punts but only averaged 5.9 per return, while Benn handled kickoffs with an excellent 26.5 average. Fayson may move to kick returner with fellow receiver Jack Ramsey taking more punts.
Coaching/Recruiting '10 Recruiting Rank: #71
After the Rose Bowl year in 2007 things have only gone south for Ron Zook, with back-to-back losing seasons. This year he had to replace a lot of his staff, a sure sign that seats are getting hot in Champaign-Urbana. This year's recruiting class wasn't so hot, however, and the majority of new talent on the field this year will be from last season's excellent class. They did get a blue chip quarterback, Chandler Whitmer, who competed with Scheelhaase for the starting job and should see time as backup.

2009 Recap Illinois kicked off the season with yet another neutral-field loss to Missouri, and this one was the worst one of the last three years, 37-9. They beat I-AA Illinois State but then lost five in a row starting with a 30-0 spaking by Ohio State. The Illini offense scored just 17, 14, 14, and 14 in the other four losses before scoring 38 and 35 to beat Michigan and Minnesota. Needing three wins for a bowl game they instead got zero, losing to Northwestern 21-16, at Cincinnati 49-36, and to Fresno State at home in a barnburner 53-52, losing on the final 2-point conversion, a fitting end to a disappointing year.

Illinois 2010 schedule & forecast
9/4	Sat	N	Missouri	38%	L
9/11	Sat	vs.	Southern Illinois	49%	L
9/18	Sat

College football rankings, power ratings, statistics, BCS projections, analysis, commentary, and Heisman watch