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I haven't followed the Heisman race as closely as usual this year, as it didn't interest me as much for some reason. But coming down to the wire, it looks like Mark Ingram of Alabama will win, with Toby Gerhart of Stanford and Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska breathing down his neck and all with a shot at the upset.
In fact, it appears that Suh might actually get the most first place votes while placing third, if the data gathering/analysis at StiffArmTrophy pans out like it does most years.
How could this have happened? Suh was not a serious threat to win the trophy before the Nebraska-Texas game. And Ingram was counted out after his poor performance at Auburn. Tebow was still in the mix, too, and now he's a distant fifth.
The answer is that everyone seems to have done what I did: make up their mind on the final day of college football, December 5th. That's when four of the five played their final game. The other one, Gerhart, finished strong against Notre Dame and ended with more rushing yards than anyone, Ingram included. Here's how I think the voter mindset went:
First, the season was a mess, with frontrunners Bradford, Tebow, and McCoy either injured or not performing to expectations. Tebow and McCoy eventually started doing well enough to earn the consideration they'd been expected to have all along, and their teams were undefeated. So that's two candidates, but they'd had some up and down performances.
Alabama was another undefeated team and all of a sudden Mark Ingram was the top candidate mid-way through the season. But he had problems, too: he nearly fumbled away the Tennessee game and had only 30 yards against Auburn in a scare. But he was the main reason Alabama had a shot at the top, so he was still up there.
Suh of Nebraska was the token defensive player all year. People heard of him, some planned to vote him 3rd which would give him the usual 7th-9th slot allotted to a defensive player. But as the other candidates struggled week to week, more people jumped on the Suh bandwagon, and the cry of "why not a defensive player?" rang out. He was soon an established top 5 pick, meaning he'd get a trip to New York as his reward but have no chance of winning.
Going into the December 5 weekend, Gerhart was making ground as the top running back, as Ingram had slipped due to Auburn; McCoy was the overall front-runner, though Tebow was always in the running if he could perform heroics against Alabama. Suh was waiting for his token New York trip.
Alabama vs. Florida was most likely to give Tebow a boost, but it ended up re-energizing Ingram's candidacy with his great performance. The Tide dominated the Gators like few expected, and Tebow couldn't muster the comeback. His candidacy was shot; he already has his Heisman, and Florida was 12-1—there were two other undefeated teams. Alabama's Ingram took his spot behind McCoy as #2 before the Nebraska-Texas game.
That game was a defensive struggle, and McCoy had a terrible game with three interceptions. On the other hand, Suh had an incredible highlight-reel game with 4 1/2 sacks. McCoy actually rallied the team into position for the winning field goal, and Texas remained unbeaten. But clearly, many voters jumped directly from supporting McCoy to supporting Suh.
I really think that the last play before the field goal destroyed any hope McCoy had of winning the Heisman. Seeing him run a needless play and very carelessly almost throw his team's season away nonchalantly was unbelievable. If his pass had held in the air a half-second longer, time simply would have run out, on a play where Texas didn't even have to take a snap. That play will be forgotten, but if time had run out it would be counted among the biggest blunders ever in sports, because of the ramifications. Texas would have thrown away a shot at the national championship.
I know after I saw that play I hoped McCoy would not get the Heisman. All year I had assumed it would eventually come back to him, and I thought he deserved it last season. But even though it may be silly to base something like that on one play, I think he blew it. It doesn't matter that "it didn't matter in the end." I can forgive him for having a bad final game, but there's no reason that final play should have come so close to disaster. Unbelievably, McCoy says he thought the clocked stopped on a pass out of bounds as soon as it crossed the first down marker. He could very easily have thrown it a bit higher, and Texas would be playing in a different BCS bowl which they would have lost due to utter disappointment at themselves.
So with McCoy essentially out of the running for a number of reasons, who should one support? Well, the other undefeated team has a candidate who really won the big game for them. So some people switched to Mark Ingram. Others thought, why Ingram when Gerhart has more yards? And many clearly thought, I'm going to support the guy that made McCoy look so bad that night.
That's how the vote ended up completely different from how it would have gone on November 28. Tebow's stock fell due to the loss; McCoy's bad game and gaffe opened up the door to everyone else; Ingram and Suh got the benefit; and those still unsure about Ingram went with Gerhart.
Tonight we'll find out which of the three will win for real. If it's Suh, I think it's a bit artificial, and based on the one performance most people saw. If it's Ingram, I'd say that's more justified, since he came through in the biggest game. If it's Gerhart, people are basing that a lot on one game, too (Notre Dame) and stats rather than "making your team great" which is sometimes cited as a reason for ignoring players on teams with more than a few losses.
McCoy is looking like a distant fourth, and he has that last pass to blame. Without it, he'd probably be right in the mix, which would affect the balance of votes and he might have a chance. If he'd had a good game against Nebraska then he'd win in a walk, and Suh wouldn't have registered in the top three. More than any year I can remember, the last weekend changed the complexion of the Heisman race, and a lot of that is because people weren't too engaged by the race this season.
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