Week 6 Preview, Odds, and Predictions: Florida-LSU not the big game

Everyone's talking about Florida and LSU, will Tebow play or won't he, etc. Granted this is a huge game, moreso if you rank LSU in the top 5 (I don't). Both teams are undefeated, this might be Florida's toughest test, blah blah. I say the game is only big in retrospect, and that's if Florida loses. Otherwise it's just another big game among many this year for the SEC. What's clear is that this is "SEC Week" in college football, with the Big Ten also playing some key contests.

1. SEC Game of the Week #1: #3 Alabama (5-0) at #19 Mississippi (3-1)
   Vegas line/odds: Alabama by 5
   Analysis: In the pre-season, this was the game to determine who faces Florida in the SEC title game; it still might be that, though Mississippi's early loss gives Auburn and LSU hope. Both of those teams have to play Alabama, too, so a win by Ole Miss puts them right back in it. A loss and the dream is over. The fact that this game is played at Mississippi gave them the slight edge in the pre-season, but their offense just hasn't been up to snuff. If they're going to make a move it has to be now, otherwise disappointment will set in.
   Prediction: Alabama 30-23
    
2. SEC Game of the Week #2: #1 Florida (4-0) at #10 LSU (5-0)
   Vegas line/odds: Florida by 7 1/2
   Analysis: Okay, I'll give this game its due. It's at LSU, LSU is undefeated, and the Tigers figured to be Florida's toughest test on the regular-season schedule. LSU is riding high in the polls but hasn't played any better than the #23 team I figured they'd be in the pre-season. They should be 4-1 now by that projection; they could just as easily be 3-2 as 5-0, so I think they're living up to their borderline top 25 status. As for Florida, they haven't been the out-of-this-world dominant team most (including I) envisioned. And without Tebow they drop another few notches. But their defense is the reason they stacked up as an overwhelming favorite this year, and whether they have Tebow or not they should still win this game. Strange things happen, though, when a team's leader is gone. The oddsmakers must be having a fun time with this one.
   Prediction: Florida 28, LSU 14
    
3. Big Ten Co-Game of the Week: Michigan (4-1) at #4 Iowa (5-0)
   Vegas line/odds: Iowa by 8
   Analysis: The Hawkeyes are another team that must be giving oddsmakers fits. Beating Northern Iowa and Arkansas State by a combined 4 points at home, while beating three other winning teams handily including Penn State. Certainly the Hawkeye defense is tough but can they score enough points to win by 8? I give them the win—they'll lose to someone less heralded, like Michigan State, Indiana, or Northwestern—but it will be close in what looks to be a blustery day in Iowa City.
   Prediction: Iowa 28, Michigan 24
    
4. Big Ten Co-Game of the Week: Wisconsin (5-0) at #20 Ohio State (4-1)
   Vegas line/odds: Ohio State by 16
   Analysis: The Buckeyes are playing like demons since their loss to USC, and the spread reflects that fact. It also demonstrates that no one takes the undefeated Badgers seriously. They aren't in the AP top 25 despite their 5-0 record, and I don't rank them yet either—they've had a light schedule and barely won each game. But even at the Horseshoe I think they'll stay closer than two touchdowns. Ohio State may be taking the Badgers lightly and are due for a down game; are they ripe for the upset?
   Prediction: Ohio State 33, Wisconsin 27
    
5. Non-SEC or Big Ten Game of the Week: Nebraska (3-1) at #25 Missouri (4-0)
   Vegas line/odds: Nebraska by 3 1/2
   Analysis: A great Thursday game this week in the Big 12. You may wonder why Nebraska is favored on the road against undefeated Missouri; have you heard they might have the best defense in the country? Might, is the key word here. It's still early. But the Cornhuskers are playing like they have something to prove. The Tigers looked great against Illinois but since then Illinois has limped to a 1-3 record and Missouri hasn't lit up the world, but their offense will be a good test for determining whether the Blackshirts are really back.
   Prediction: Nebraska 28, Missouri 10

That's this week's preview. I took all the favorites, but took the underdog against the spread in two of the games. At least one of them is bound to be an upset, I think, and whichever one it is will have a big effect on the race in a major conference...