Here are SportsRatings projections for the non-BCS conference races in 2009, based strictly on game-by-game favorites from our 2009 Preview listings—no upsets are picked and no attempt has been made to account for them. An asterisk (*) denotes bowl eligibility expected.
Mountain West
|
|
*TCU | 8-0 |
*Utah | 7-1 |
*BYU | 6-2 |
*Air Force | 5-3 |
New Mexico |
4-4 |
UNLV | 3-5 |
Colorado State | 2-6 |
San Diego State | 1-7 |
Wyoming |
0-8 |
The Mountain West caused a stir last year for two reasons: One, having a week in which their teams went 5-0 against the Pac-10. Two, for Utah going 12-0 and busting in on the BCS bowl scene. Utah beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl while TCU defeated Boise State to give the conference two high-profile finishes.
This year many are picking the three top teams to be in the top 25 this year. We only see one team—TCU—being that good. Utah and BYU are both far from their quality of last season but should finish #2 and #3 in the conference followed by Air Force. All four teams should be bowl eligible with room to spare.
After that, though, no other teams will likely finish above .500. But TCU has a good chance of going undefeated and becoming this season's BCS buster.
Conference USA |
|
East division | |
*East Carolina | 7-1 |
*Southern Miss | 7-1 |
*Central Florida |
4-4 |
*Marshall | 4-4 |
Memphis | 1-7 |
UAB | 1-7 |
West division | |
*Tulsa | 7-1 |
*Houston | 6-2 |
*Rice |
5-3 |
*UTEP | 5-3 |
SMU | 1-7 |
Tulane | 0-8 |
What a difference home field makes in the conference races. Here's how we see the C-USA standings going down: East Carolina beats Southern Miss, who beats Tulsa, who beats East Carolina, leaving them all 7-1 with the winner in each case being the home team. Now, because the Pirates and the Golden Eagles being in the same division, the latter are eliminated from title game discussion.
What's more, Tulsa retains the home field for the conference championship game, meaning they should win the conference just because they faced East Carolina and Houston at home, while Southern Miss who is just as good gets shafted for being in the East rather than the West. Sometimes that's how it goes, though...
Overall the conference should have eight bowl qualifiers, from which at least five will be selected for bowl games. Central Florida, Marshall, and Rice may be "on the bubble".
Mid-American (MAC) |
|
East division | |
*Temple | 7-1 |
*Buffalo | 6-2 |
*Akron |
6-2 |
Bowling Green | 3-5 |
Kent State | 3-5 |
Ohio | 3-5 |
Miami Ohio | 0-8 |
West division | |
*Central Michigan | 8-0 |
*Ball State | 6-2 |
Toledo |
4-4 |
Northern Illinois | 3-5 |
Western Michigan | 2-6 |
Eastern Michigan | 1-7 |
The Temple Owls may take a big leap this year and play for the conference championship. Last year's winner Buffalo and upstart Akron are close behind in contention in the East.
Central Michigan is back in the driver's seat in the West, though. Last year's darling Ball State will still be good but won't threaten to go undefeated this year. The Chippewas then get to play in the championship game very close to home in Ford Field, which should ensure a win over the Owls for the MAC title.
Overall the conference should have five bowl teams—all those that are in the running for the division crowns. All the other teams will come up short to varying degrees. The MAC will have a down year, with the majority of teams not as good as they were last season.
Western Athletic (WAC)
|
|
*Boise State | 8-0 |
*Nevada | 7-1 |
*Fresno State | 6-2 |
*Utah State | 5-3 |
Louisiana Tech |
4-4 |
San Jose State | 3-5 |
Hawaii | 2-6 |
New Mexico State | 1-7 |
Idaho | 0-8 |
Boise State makes another run at going undefeated and the WAC shouldn't give them any problem. Nevada is a far distant second to the Broncos who face Oregon at home in their toughest test in the opener. Get past that and only laziness and/or overconfidence can stop them.
The gulf between the best and worst team in the WAC is wider than any other conference (with perhaps the Pac-10 being in the running lately, but that's an aberration). New Mexico State and Idaho are two of the three worst teams in the NCAA so while the projected records make the conference look rather lineal in decay, it's not.
Four teams should be bowl eligible, though Utah State might not get a bid if they finish 6-6.
Sun Belt
|
|
*Troy | 8-0 |
*Middle Tennessee St. |
7-1 |
*Arkansas State | 6-2 |
*Florida International | 5-3 |
LA-Lafayette | 4-4 |
Florida Atlantic | 3-5 |
Louisiana-Monroe | 2-6 |
Western Kentucky | 1-7 |
North Texas | 0-8 |
Troy should be in control of the Sun Belt this year. Middle Tennessee, Arkansas State, and FIU are perhaps surprising upstarts but none should threaten the Trojans. Beyond those four there is little hope for bowl eligibility in the conference.
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