Here are SportsRatings projections for the BCS conference races in 2009, based strictly on game-by-game favorites from our 2009 Preview listings—no upsets are picked and no attempt has been made to account for them. An asterisk (*) denotes bowl eligibility expected.
ACC |
|
| Atlantic division | |
| *Clemson | 6-2 |
| *Florida State | 6-2 |
| *Boston College |
4-4 |
| *Wake Forest | 4-4 |
| NC State | 2-6 |
| Maryland | 0-8 |
| Coastal division | |
| *Virginia Tech | 7-1 |
| *Georgia Tech | 6-2 |
| *North Carolina |
6-2 |
| *Miami | 4-4 |
| Virginia | 2-6 |
| Duke | 1-7 |
Clemson finally gets a chance to redeem themselves for last year's stumble. Though ranked 2nd in the Atlantic division they get Florida State at home in a game that should decide who goes to the title game. That contest could go either way but Clemson has it by a hair.
The Coastal division is even screwier. Parity still reigns at the top of the conference, and though North Carolina is the best team overall in the ACC they finish third in the division! Having to play Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech on the road is their downfall. Meanwhile Virginia Tech probably loses on the road to the Yellow Jackets but they win everything else to go to the final.
The championship game is played in Tampa this year, and Virginia Tech will likely edge Clemson for another BCS bowl game for the Hokies.
FSU and North Carolina are only a bounce of the ball away from playing in the title game themselves. Eight teams will likely be bowl eligible in the ACC, though Wake Forest cuts it close.
Big East
|
|
| *Rutgers | 7-0 |
| *Pittsburgh | 6-1 |
| *South Florida | 5-2 |
| *Cincinnati | 4-3 |
| *West Virginia | 3-4 |
| Connecticut | 2-5 |
| Louisville | 1-6 |
| Syracuse | 0-7 |
Rutgers has an easy schedule this year but that's not why they should win the Big East—they're also the best team in the league. That's not saying much this year when no Big East team is a legit top 25 team. Don't worry about the Big East getting skipped over though; Rutgers should be undefeated this year or very close, so they'll have a good ranking at year's end. The Scarlet Knights play Pittsburgh at home so that's more insurance that they should find their way to a BCS bowl.
The rest of the league falls into line basically by quality, though Cincy ends up ahead of West Virginia due to playing them at home. Both should easily be bowl-eligible but UConn, Louisville, and Syracuse are out of luck.
Big Ten
|
|
| *Penn State | 8-0 |
| *Ohio State | 7-1 |
| *Michigan State | 7-1 |
| *Iowa | 5-3 |
| *Minnesota | 4-4 |
| *Illinois | 4-4 |
| *Wisconsin | 3-5 |
| Purdue | 2-6 |
| Michigan | 2-6 |
| *Northwestern | 2-6 |
| Indiana | 0-8 |
Penn State should again rule the conference by beating both of the teams that tie for second place. Ohio State and Michigan State don't play each other so it's a true tie. The Spartans have a better chance than the Buckeyes of beating the Nittany Lions as their game is in East Lansing. But likely both teams suffer just that one loss.
The real 2nd-best team in the conference is Iowa. The Hawks have the bad luck, though, of playing Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State all on the road. The latter two games are virtual tossups and with a little luck Iowa could move into 2nd place but it would take a lot to get to the Rose Bowl.
Speaking of bowls the top seven teams should all be bowl-eligible pretty easily; Northwestern technically finishes 10th but should reach bowl eligibility also.
Big Twelve
|
|
| North division | |
| *Kansas | 5-3 |
| *Missouri | 5-3 |
| *Nebraska | 3-5 |
| Kansas State | 3-5 |
| Iowa State | 1-7 |
| Colorado | 1-7 |
| South division | |
| *Texas | 8-0 |
| *Oklahoma | 7-1 |
| *Oklahoma State | 6-2 |
| *Texas Tech | 5-3 |
| *Baylor | 3-5 |
| Texas A&M | 1-7 |
The much-maligned North division will have a new champion: Kansas. The Jayhawks should beat Missouri in their season-ending Kansas City contest and win the tiebreaker to face, and lose to, the South division champ.
The South division is once again loaded, with the Red River Shootout determining who goes to the Big 12 title game as well as the national championship. Texas is still the slim favorite as we knock on the door of the season's start. Oklahoma should run the table other than that, with Oklahoma State losing only to Texas and Oklahoma while beating Texas Tech in a home game. In all, five teams from the South should be bowl-bound including Baylor.
Texas will have home field advantage in the Big Twelve title game, ensuring that if they beat Oklahoma they will be on their way to a BCS bowl game, most likely the national championship. In the North, only three teams will be bowl eligible, with Kansas State reaching six wins but only being able to count one of the two FCS teams on their schedule.
Pac Ten
|
|
| *Southern Cal | 9-0 |
| *California | 8-1 |
| *Arizona | 7-2 |
| *Stanford | 6-3 |
| *Oregon | 5-4 |
| *Oregon State | 4-5 |
| Arizona State | 3-6 |
| UCLA | 2-7 |
| Washington | 1-8 |
| Washington St. | 0-9 |
The Pac Ten has USC at the top as usual, with Cal just barely failing to knock them off. Two surprise teams land at #3 and #4: Arizona and Stanford, displacing the Oregon teams from where most pundits have them.
With USC and Penn State both favored in their conferences but likely shut out from the national championship, it looks like a Rose Bowl repeat of last year's one-sided contest. The Pac-10 was 5-0 in bowl games last year and will have a chance to do that one better in 2009 as six teams should qualify with room to spare.
Washington and Washington State will again bring up the rear, but the Huskies will do a lot better this season while the Cougars won't make much progress.
SEC
|
|
| East division | |
| *Florida | 8-0 |
| *Georgia | 7-1 |
| *Vanderbilt | 4-4 |
| *Tennessee | 2-6 |
| South Carolina | 1-7 |
| Kentucky | 1-7 |
| West division | |
| *Mississippi | 8-0 |
| *Alabama | 7-1 |
| *LSU | 4-4 |
| *Arkansas | 3-5 |
| *Auburn | 3-5 |
| Mississippi St. | 0-8 |
There are two huge games in the SEC: the title game, of course, and the Alabama-Mississippi game on October 10th. The latter decides who gets to face Florida in December.
Because that game is in Oxford, the Rebels should win the West division. LSU is a very distant their so if Alabama can best Ole Miss they should expect to win the division.
Florida will dominate the East, which is weak this year. Georgia is about as good as LSU but finishes 7-1 in the SEC due to avoiding playing Alabama and Mississippi and facing LSU at home. Florida should also win the SEC title and be in the national championship game.
Tennessee will just barely be bowl-eligible while in the West even Arkansas and Auburn will easily make it.
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