2009 Pre-season Rankings - #8 Texas Tech, #9 Penn State

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #8 to #9. To see the full list, click here.

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (Big Twelve #3; South #3)     Polls: AP #31, USA/Coaches #28

2008 Results:    Record: 11-2   Bowl: Lost to Mississippi 47-34 (Cotton)   Poll finish: AP #12, USA #12
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #6    Success: #7    Overall: #7
Texas Tech reloads without Harrell and Crabtree, but there's not much chance of them tying for first-place in the Big Twelve South this season.

Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #5   Adj. Rush Yards: #92    Adj. Pass Yards: #1
Let's face it: Texas Tech's offense is a "system." Any offense that is essentially one-dimensional is a system in which the players who participate, if competent, will have huge stats in that dimension. So replacing players in a system is easier than replacing players in more standard offenses. That said, at certain times you find players for your system that are exceptional and in that case, replacement doesn't result in the same success. Two such hard-to-replace players are QB Graham Harrell and receiver Michael Crabtree. Harrell's 5,000+ yards and 45 touchdowns don't grow on trees; neither do Crabtree's 1,165 yards (1,962 in '07) and 19 TDs. Taylor Potts will no doubt put up huge numbers though he's hard-pressed to match Harrell's 70% completion rate, particularly without the likes of Crabtree and #3 receiver Eric Morris (9 TDs). Detron Lewis (913 yards) and Edward Britton (577) are the two top returning receivers, with Tramain Swindall (561) and starter Lyle Leong back, too, so Potts will have no shortage of quality targets on the field. But another issue is the offensive line, which returns just two starters—seniors Brandon Carter and Marlon Winn. Since the offense is what head coach Mike Leach concentrates on he always has great backups, and while few starters return, 18 2nd- and 3rd-stringers are back so the O-line should be okay anchored by the returning seniors. The running game, though a clear 2nd priority, will be in good shape with Baron Batch replacing starter Shannon Woods (716 yards, 12 TDs). Batch finished as the leading rusher last year (758 yards) and averaged more per carry than Woods (6.7 to 5.1). In summary, the offense will be good. It will resemble the Tech offenses prior to the Harrell-Crabtree years: explosive, but not dizzyingly so.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #32    Adj. Rush Def: #63    Adj. Pass Def: #27
The defense took a big step up last year, and that was as responsible for Tech's success last year as anything; after all, they had Harrell and Crabtree in 2007 and finished 8-4. This year the defense will help offset the inevitable decline in scoring. The defensive line might improve their mediocre rushing defense numbers but the pass rush will suffer as they lose Brandon Williams and backup McKinner Dixon who together had 22 of the team's 34 sacks. Colby Whitlock returns as does Rajon Henley who started full-time in '07 and in '08 until injured. Richard Jones, who replaced Henley in the lineup, is back as well. Linebacker is a strong point this year with all three starters—Brian Duncan (#1 tackler last year), Marlon Williams, and Bront Bird—returning. The secondary has been good recently and that should continue this year. The corner spot is solid with Jamar Wall (11 pass break-ups) and Brent Nickerson back, and LaRon Moore who started in the bowl game. Safety is a concern as they lose both Darcel McBath (7 interceptions) and Daniel Charbonnet (5 int). Without their takeaway artists opponents may score more points even if Tech's pass yardage defense remains the same or improves, but overall the defense has many strong areas and has plenty of depth.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  Tech's kicking game hasn't been great lately, but all of its components are back so it shouldn't get worse. Punter Jonathan LaCour (37.1 average, just 29.2 net) is back, while both kickers used last year—Donnie Carona (4 of 9 FG) and Matthew Williams (2 of 3)—return. Williams was the guy who made a halftime field goal and was asked to walk on the team. He'll handle the placekicking while Carona should handle kickoffs and compete for LaCour's punting job.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #28
Mike Leach is always good for a laugh at his press conferences or otherwise, when expounding on how young people should trade "computer schemes" when dating, or offering his idea for a Big Twelve tiebreaker—graduation rate. Last year's success may have contributed to the quality of this year's recruiting class. Nearly top 25 in the country, it's fourth in the Big Twelve, behind only Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma. Pretty good for having to convince players to come to Lubbock as opposed to Texas' bigger city attractions. He always looks for good receivers, of course, and this year's best might be Eric Ward from Wichita Falls. If Leach can keep up the recruiting, then he'll have more luck maintaining the program at its current high level.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year I previewed the 2008 squad and wrote "Tech, with their strong offensive line, will take this game plan as far as it can go, but they can't quite take it all the way." It took a while before the 2008 Texas Tech Red Raiders proved they were for real. A tremendously easy pre-conference schedule made their blowout wins superflous, and even then letting Eastern Washington score 24 points, or beating Nevada just 35-19 didn't look like the hallmark of a serious national title contender. They throttled Kansas State, but who cared? They were 6-0 after they beat Nebraska, but they needed overtime—at home—to get it done. Tech 43, A&M 25? Not convincing. But around their 8th win, a 63-21 decimation of Kansas in Lawrence, people had to start paying attention. And the week after that they took the driver's seat by beating Texas 39-33 with the most famous play in Texas Tech football history: Harrell to Crabtree for a literal last-second touchdown and the win. One week later they backed it up by demolishing Oklahoma State 56-20. But then all the good will they'd built up for their national championship fund was wiped away in a 65-21 loss to Oklahoma. Had they kept it even reasonably close things might have been different, but their national title hopes, Big Twelve title hopes, and Harrell's Heisman hopes were gone. They limped through a near-loss against Baylor and predictably had a letdown against Mississippi in the Cotton Bowl.

Texas Tech 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	North Dakota	95%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Rice	75%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Texas	26%	L
9/26	Sat	@	Houston	64%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	New Mexico	82%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	74%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Nebraska	61%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	74%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	59%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	46%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	32%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*Baylor	54%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

This year there will be no 10-0 start for the Raiders. By game three they will have a loss, as Texas gets revenge for having their season ruined. But after that it could be a while before the next loss. The Big Ten North teams haven't caught up yet and A&M won't beat them. They play Oklahoma State on the road which is a probable loss too, as is the Oklahoma game played anywhere. They close at Baylor which is a potential deathtrap. Let's face it, the team is going to see some decline. Most are saying it's going to be a lot sharper, but to me a collapse would mean a 7-5 season. The early games are easy and that's good; they can't expect to beat Texas, and the other early games will help their quarterback, receivers, and offensive line get the hang of things.

Though I rank the Raiders very high, their record doesn't change much whether you put them #9 or #19 or #29. A few games here and there, at most, and well within the range of 7-5 to 9-3. There are three games I'm sure they'll lose and a lot I'm sure they'll win, but considering all they lose on offense someone will upset them at some point. So this year I'll estimate that Texas Tech will end up 8-4; in other words, just about where they were before last year happened.

9. Penn State Nittany Lions (Big Ten #1)          Polls: AP #9, USA/Coaches #8

2008 Results:    Record: 11-2   Bowl: Lost to USC 38-24 (Rose)   Poll finish: AP #8, USA #8
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #5    Success: #11    Overall: #6
The Nittany Lions are back to try to win another Big Ten title for JoePa.

Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #8   Adj. Rush Yards: #23    Adj. Pass Yards: #47
The Lion offense's trademarks last year were third down conversions (6th best in country) and red zone scoring (also 6th best), two reasons why they scored so much on such pedestrian yardage. How will they do this year? The key players are back: Quarterback Darryl Clark (2,592 passing yards, 19 TDs, 6 int, 10 rushing TDs) and running back Evan Royster (1,236 yards, 12 TDs). The shortages are at receiver, where the top three each had over 40 receptions and 17 TDs combined. All three are gone. The tight end position is set with Mickey Shuler and Andrew Quarless back, but that's it. After allowing only 13 sacks last year the offensive line returns but two starters—Stefen Wisniewski and Dennis Lanolt—meaning they lose three-year starters A.Q. Shipley and Rich Ohrnberger and two-year starter Gerald Cadogan. The loss of three great receivers and three great linemen will no doubt slow down the dynamic duo.

Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #6    Adj. Rush Def: #7    Adj. Pass Def: #80
The defense was like the offense; regardless of yardage, they ranked in the top ten in scoring defense. They certainly shut down the run, and their pass yardage numbers were hurt by the USC game and the fact that they didn't play strong passing teams (the figure is adjusted for competition). There is good new and bad news on defense this year. The defensive line returns two starters, Jared Odrick and Ollie Ogbu, at tackle. But experienced backup Abe Koroma is out this year for personal reasons, and both starting ends are gone including Aaron Maybin (12 sacks). At linebacker the Lions are stacked. #1 tackler Navorro Bowman is back along with #2 Josh Hull, but the real plus is the return from ACL injury of all-American Sean Lee. There's bad news here, too: projected starter Michael Mauti is out for the season with an ACL tear. The Lions have plenty of options to replace him even if they don't have Hull (who is backing up Lee) move to Mauti's slot. The secondary is pretty much all bad news as four starters are gone. Seniors A.J. Wallace and Knowledge Timmons take over at corner, with talented sophomore Drew Astorino filling a safety slot. Since teams will be very hard-pressed to run on the Lions (again), the secondary will be tested. Overall the Lions lose 10 of their top 14 tacklers. Expect a strong rushing defense again but a worse passing defense with fewer sacks. The scoring defense ranking will be much lower, but while the raw yardage numbers might get worse that #37 the adjusted yardage values may be about the same.

Kicking Game (1 RS): A big reason for Penn State's solid red zone scoring percentage was last year's kicker Kevin Kelly, who hit 20 of 24 field goals, including all 16 inside the 40. He'll be replaced by junior Colin Wagner or freshman Anthony Fera. Reliable punter Jeremy Boone (43 yard average) returns.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #20
At 82 Joe Paterno still has some recruiting magic left in him as the current signing class demonstrates. Years ago there was speculation that Paterno's age and uncertain retirement plans would turn off recruits. But now it seems that has passed and recruits are buying into the Penn State program and see Paterno as a living legend, more of a king than coach. His staff has taken over many functions as could be seen last year when he coached from the sky boxes for several games after hip surgery. But don't think he can't still motivate a team; look at the difference in Penn State' s performance in the first half of the Rose Bowl vs. the second, after JoePa gave them a pep talk about how to play "Penn State football"? Ahead of Bobby Bowden by one win (and possibly a lot more if Bowden has wins docked), Paterno is getting very near the end of his coaching days and some have suggested that he believes if he doesn't keep coaching he will pass away. Coaching keeps him going, quite literally. Of the at least half-dozen blue chips in the 2009 class, in-state offensive line recruit Eric Shrive may be the best. Another top recruit, DB Darrell Givens, did not qualify.

2009 Season Outlook  Penn State was pretty much unstoppable for most of the season. The early blowout of Oregon State (45-14) would grow in impressiveness each week as the Beavers beat USC and ended up 8-4. They struggled offensively at Ohio State, with the defense sparking the 13-6 win. They went into Iowa City 9-0 and left 9-1 after a last-second field goal, but closed out the season with strong wins despite being knocked from national title competition. The Rose Bowl was their only terrible game, or terrible half at least, as the Trojans jumped all over them 31-7. They made at least the final score respectable by the end.

Penn State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Akron	76%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Syracuse	85%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Temple	74%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	54%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Illinois	54%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	Eastern Illinois	99%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	63%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Michigan	63%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Northwestern	62%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	57%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	85%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Michigan State	50%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 8-4

This year's Penn State team is not as good as the 2008 model. But with the other main Big Ten team also fading that won't matter; they still have a decent chance of going undefeated. Which means that they'll very likely end up 11-1 again, maybe 10-2. Two possible pitfall games come early: Iowa at home and Illinois on the road. Make it past those and it should be smooth sailing to the final week; Ohio State at home should not be a concern as I think the Buckeyes are a bit overrated this year. The real key game for this season is in East Lansing. If they've made it 11-0 thus far they have about a 50/50 chance against the Spartans on the road. MSU is one of the few top Big Ten teams that will be better this year (along with Illinois; Iowa is about the same overall). At this point I have them favored in every game, but that could change as injuries unfold (and Penn State has already lost two good players in the summer as noted on defense).

The 8-4 cumulative projection is a worst-case. If they lose to Iowa, Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan State the year will be a disappointment. I think the Lions will win the Big Ten again, going 11-1 or 10-2, with one of the losses coming somewhere unexpected like at Northwestern. It just seems to work out that way recently for Penn State. But it will keep Paterno ahead of Bowden, perhaps for good, and he will be able to retire knowing he's #1 on the all-time list.