2009 Pre-season Rankings - #76 to #80: Marshall, Akron, Fresno State, Duke, Louisville

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #76 to #80. To see the full list, click here.

76. Marshall Thundering Herd (Conference USA #7; East #3)

2008 Results:    Record: 4-8   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #95    Success: #87    Overall: #96
Marshall seeks to rebound from a another losing season.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #105   Adj. Rush Yards: #54    Adj. Pass Yards: #98
The Herd are led by Doak Walker candidate Darrius Marshall, who had 1,100 yards last year and 5 TDs. With his main backup gone he'll likely carry as much or more of the load in 2009, assuming he stays out of trouble. Three offensive linemen are back; two were freshmen last year and should be much better. Junior Josh Evans was also expected back but recently transferred. Another reason Marshall runs a lot is mediocre quarterback play. Mark Cann completed only 50% for under 1,800 yards last year and had 13 interceptions; this spring he lost the starting nod to backup Brian Anderson, who was somewhat better last season in limited action. Top receiver Darrius Passmore (945 yards) is gone and Bryant Milligan recently transferred. The tight end slot(s) are well covered with Cody Slate (#2 receiver, 7 TDs) and Lee Smith back. Despite a decent number of returning starters there are questions almost everywhere except for running back and depth there is not great if something happens to Darrius Marshall.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #77    Adj. Rush Def: #71    Adj. Pass Def: #100
The defensive line is in great shape, essentially returning four starters with full-timers Albert McClelland  and Johnny Jones at end and tackle and the other positions covered by Delvin Johnson, James Burkes, and Michael Janac. Maurice Kitchens (4 INT) is gone from the linebacker squad, but #1 tackler Mario Harvey returns with Brandon Burns. The safeties are lost from the secondary but both starting corners are back, assuming that DeQuan Bembry (arrested for marijuana possession with Darrius Marshall) isn't suspended for more than the first game. The defense has excellent depth, too, losing only three letterman in the 2nd and 3rd string.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Kase Whitehead (38.7 average but solid 36.5 net) returns at punter, and at kicker Craig Ratanamorn (7 of 11 FG) is back to start unless Tyler Warner (3 of 5) gets the job.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #81
Coach Mark Snyder hasn't had a winning season at the helm of Marshall, a school that used to go undefeated with semi-regularity. The pressure has to be on to win this year. The 2009 recruiting class isn't great by national or even C-USA standards, but it's not terrible and there are a handful of recruits with added potential. But it's not going to drastically impact this season. One of the better '09 recruits, QB A.J. Graham, was arrested for armed robbery and won't be joining the team but was later reinstated when the charges were dropped.

Marshall 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Southern Illinois	59%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Virginia Tech	29%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	57%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Memphis	51%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*East Carolina	46%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Tulane	61%	W
10/17	Sat	@	West Virginia	40%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*UAB	61%	W
11/1	Sun	@	*Central Florida	48%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	44%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Southern Methodist	63%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*UTEP	44%	L
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Marshall's wins came early in the season last year; the Herd stood 3-1, and 2-0 in C-USA play, after beating Memphis and Southern Mississippi. Two losses to Big East squads West Virginia and Cincinnati were expected but slowed their momentum, and they only won one game out of the last eight. Close losses to UAB (2 points), East Carolina (OT), and Tulsa (3 points) kept the Herd out of bowl contention again.

This year Marshall could start 3-1 again. Darrius Marshall, Bembry, and starting linebacker Corey Hart are suspended for the first game, making it a bit tighter but they should still win. There are also three probably victories in the last eight games meaning the Thundering Herd should be back in a bowl game in 2009. Even their losses are not set in stone, except perhaps Virginia Tech if the Hokies live up to their hype. All five games at the end of the season could be victories.

The odds are against that, though. The offense isn't great by any means, and injuries could wreak havoc. If everything works out superbly they could do much better, and if Darrius Marshall is hurt (or remains suspended, which is not expected) they could do worse. But overall it's likely that Marshall finishes 6-6. Will it be enough to save Snyder's job? That may depend on whether they win their bowl game, and 6-6 doesn't guaranteed a trip.

77. Akron Zips (Mid-American #5; East #3)

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #79    Success: #97    Overall: #80
Akron's strength—offense—will get even stronger while the limp defense may continue to struggle.
Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #46   Adj. Rush Yards: #55    Adj. Pass Yards: #38
Akron's high-powered (for the MAC) offense returns nine starters: Four offensive linemen, four receivers, and quarterback Chris Jacquemain. The latter threw 20 touchdown passes last year but also 14 interceptions or else the offense would have been even more potent. The all-senior receiving corps is led by Deryn Bowser who led with 785 yards and Andre Jones who had 7 TDs. Two seniors and two juniors return to the line but four-year starter Chris Kemme has to be replaced. The other starter missing from the offensive lineup is also significant: 1,000 yard rusher Dennis Kennedy, who had an astounding 17 touchdowns. #2 rusher Andrew Johnson is also gone, leaving Alex Allen next in line. Whoever emerges will run behind a seasoned line and the benefit of an offense that is not one-dimensional.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #104    Adj. Rush Def: #98    Adj. Pass Def: #87
The defense was the reason Akron fell short of bowl eligibility last year; twice down the stretch the offense scored 40+ but the team lost. The Zips' 3-3-5 didn't stop the run or the pass last year. The front line returns 3-year starter Almondo Sewell, but loses two as Shawn Lemon moves to "Rover" in the defensive backfield. Transfer Ryan Bain from Iowa will help pick up the slack. Mike Thomas, the #2 tackler on the squad last year, returns at the "Ban" linebacker slot, but #1 tackler Kevin Grant is gone. The "5" return four starters—Lemon moves the hybrid linebacker/corner slot, Miguel Graham at corner, Wayne Cobham at free safety and two other half-time starters at strong safety. The names and positions may change as the coaches are planning variations on the basic scheme to mix things up.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter John Stec (37.1 average) and kicker Igor Iveljic (18 of 28 FGs, 3 of 8 past the 40) are both back this year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #72
Head coach J.D. Brookhart hasn't really elevated the program since he got here, and now he's being criticized for the performance of the defense. Akron's 2009 class is #2 in the MAC, but far from #1 Central Michigan. There's a fine line between most of the MAC recruiting classes, but this one is definitely in the top half. Boding well for the future there are some good recruits on defense, such as defensive lineman Chris Henderson and summer signee Emmanuel Lartey.

Akron 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Penn State	24%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Morgan State	82%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Indiana	62%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Central Michigan	41%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Ohio	61%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Buffalo	46%	L
10/24	Sat	@	Syracuse	55%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Northern Illinois	53%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Kent State	60%	W
11/13	Fri	vs.	*Temple	51%	W
11/20	Fri	@	*Bowling Green	50%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	62%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  In retrospect last year didn't contain many surprises. A loss to Wisconsin, a win over Syracuse. A loss to Ball State, a win over Army. The loss to Cincinnati was closer than expected, but it wasn't an upset. Last year I wrote that the Zips would face many close games and could be anywhere from 2-9 to 5-7. Six games ended within seven points but they lost most of those. The offense turned out much better than I thought while the defense was just as bad as I suspected.

This year the offense should be great while the defense will be improved. You can write off the game at Penn State and winning at CMU will be hard, but everything else is in play. I have the Zips winners in nine games, and but that counts very slim wins over Temple and Bowling Green, not to mention Syracuse (on the road this time) and Northern Illinois. With all these close games and uncertaintly the cumulative projection is just 6-6. Either way, that's bowl eligible—though 6-6 is not "bowl certain." To make sure of things, the defense will have to step up enough for the offense to do its thing, and Akron could be looking at 9-3 this year. I'll bet that the improvement on offense is enough to overcome any major problems on defense and by splitting the close games Akron will go 7-5 and reach a bowl game.

78. Fresno State Bulldogs (WAC #3)

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Colorado St. 40-35 (New Mexico Bowl)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #85    Success: #65    Overall: #85
The Bulldogs disappointed last year when some had them picked as a BCS buster.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #55   Adj. Rush Yards: #39    Adj. Pass Yards: #65
The first order of business for the Bulldog offense: replace 3-year starting quarterback Tom Brandstater, who took nearly every snap for the team last season hitting 60% for 2,664 yards and 18 touchdowns. Junior Ryan Colburn is the suspected replacement but there's really no one with experience. Helping matters is the return of all but one key receiver from last year, with Seyi Ajirotutu leading the way with 5 TD grabs. But the running game is more the bread and butter at Fresno, and all the leading backs return including the Anthony Harding (6 TDs) and Lonyae Miller (7 TDs) who both exceeded 800 yards and Ryan Mathews (6 TDs) who eclipsed 600 despite injury. Two multi-year starters were lost on the offensive line but everyone else returns, so look for a strong ground attack again from the Dogs.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #102    Adj. Rush Def: #114    Adj. Pass Def: #25
The front four loses one full-time starter (Ikenna Ike) and returns #2 tackler Chris Carter (who played both end and linebacker last season), Mark Roberts, and two others that started half-time as the Bulldogs look to correct a major problem with their rushing defense. Further reinforcing the line are three linebackers including Ben Jacobs (113 tackles, #1 on the team). The secondary features Moses Harris and half-time starters Desia Dunn and Lorne Bell. Again like so many teams with terrible rushing defense their passing yardage yielded was low, but they weren't tested often and the team had just 5 interceptions all year.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Robert Malone had a very decent punting average (42.8) but a terrible net (31.8) while kicker Kevin Goessling hit 15 of 22 field goals. Both are back for 2009.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #103
Pat Hill has been at Fresno State for a dozen years and has been winning consistently with a few token stumbles during rebuilding years. This year's signing class is uncharactistically low, rated in the middle of the WAC; last year's was near the top. But there are still standouts such as lineman Donnie Pritchett, linebacker Travis Brown, and most interestingly Derek Carr who is competing for the starting quarterback job as a true freshman.

Fresno State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	California-Davis	71%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Wisconsin	38%	L
9/18	Fri	vs.	*Boise State	33%	L
9/26	Sat	@	Cincinnati	42%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Hawaii	60%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	60%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*New Mexico State	67%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Utah State	58%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Idaho	74%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Nevada	44%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana Tech	57%	W
12/5	Sat	@	Illinois	31%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Most publications were picking Fresno State to win the WAC last year and possibly run the table and go to a BCS bowl game. I didn't quite drink the Kool-Aid, picking them to finish behind Boise State and go 9-3. When they beat Rutgers—one of the losses I'd picked for them—I was surprised more at how poorly the Scarlett Knights played than impressed by the Bulldogs. The loss to Wisconsin just made up for the Rutgers win. But needing double overtime to beat Toledo made me pause, and finally the overtime loss to Hawaii made it clear that Fresno State was probably headed for a disappointing season.

They were 5-2 after beating Utah State, but their wins were so close it was hard to take seriously the idea that they might still end up in the top 25. Losses to Louisiana Tech and Nevada erased hopes that they could still contend for the WAC title, and a 61-10 drubbing by Boise State revealed the real pecking order of that conference in 2008. At 6-6 they went to a bowl game but lost to Colorado State 40-35.

This season they face Wisconsin and Boise State in the first three weeks and could be 1-3 after a trip to Cincinnati. But the next five games could be—and should be—victories. In all there are seven games the Bulldogs should win, or just over six by the cumulative odds. As usual Fresno State plays a tough non-conference slate with three BCS road games, two Big Ten teams and one Big East. Though they'll probably just match last year's record—or exceed it depending on who their bowl opponent is—that's not bad for a team breaking in a truly brand new quarterback, and if he develops then 2010 might be special.

79. Duke Blue Devils (ACC #11; Coastal #6)

2008 Results:    Record: 4-8   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #64    Success: #57    Overall: #64
Duke nearly had a breakthrough year in 2008 but now it's back to normal for the Blue Devils.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #73   Adj. Rush Yards: #95    Adj. Pass Yards: #75
Duke's offense wasn't overpowering last year but it wasn't bad for the first year in David Cutcliffe's system. Thaddeus Lewis returns at quarterback and has conveyed comfort with the system a year after he passed for 15 TDs with 62% completions and just 6 interceptions. Johnny Williams returns at receiver as does Brett Huffman at tight end but lose Eron Riley's 8 TD receptions. Just two starters are back on the offensive line, adding to concerns about the already-weak running game. Of the three top backs Clifford Harris is gone and Tony Jackson was dismissed after the spring, though Re'Quan Boyette returns from redshirting.
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #57    Adj. Rush Def: #29    Adj. Pass Def: #117
The defensive line loses two starters but boasts three "O"s—Vince Oghobaase, Ayanga Okpokowuruk, and Wesley Oglesby. The other probable starter, Kinney Rucker, may or may not play this season after summer foot surgery. At linebacker they return Vincent Rey (109 tackles, 10.5 total tackles for loss) but lose Michael Tauiliili (140 tackles, 13 total tackles for loss, 4 interceptions). Two starters return in the secondary but possible starter Zack Asack—last year's backup QB—was kicked off the team this summer.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Kevin Jones (40.8) is back along with kicker Nick Maggio (11 of 14 FG). Both are juniors.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #47
Duke's football recruiting ranking will never be mistaken for its basketball ranking. But this year—significantly Cutcliffe's second—their class is closer to the middle of the pack in the ACC than to the bottom. If this is going to be par for the course rather than an aberration a winning program will be built here eventually. Already, in just his first season, Cutcliffe led Duke to as many wins as they had in the four previous seasons. And while that was predicted by many based on their returning talent, the recruiting numbers give even more hope for the future. Cutcliffe didn't score any of the *huge* names, but got a big one in running back Desmond Scott with tackle John Drew another with potential.

Duke 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Richmond	47%	L
9/12	Sat	@	Army	62%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Kansas	28%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	North Carolina Central	100%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	35%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	39%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	55%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Virginia	41%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*North Carolina	25%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	34%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	30%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	40%	L
Favored: 3-9   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  Last year's early success surprised some people who figured Duke to be stuck in 1-11 hell forever. But last year I picked the Blue Devils to go 5-7. They beat James Madison much more easily than I thought, and lost to Northwestern, beat Navy as expected and toppled Virginia to match my prediction of a 3-1 start. I figured 2008 was finally the year they'd get over the hump against Miami and for a while it looked like it was happening but the 'Canes rallied and blew them out 49-31. They beat Vanderbilt but lost in overtime to Wake Forest and struggled to four straight losses, three of which were competitive.

This season will likely be a step backwards, or a pause before the next charge perhaps. Though they Blue Devils play two FCS teams one of them is defending champion Richmond who will be a challenge. The other is a gimme, but winning both of them won't help their slim bowl hopes as only one victory can count toward the six needed. So Duke has to 7-5 to get to a bowl game but will likely do no better than 5-7. A slip to 3-9 is possible, too, as most of the losses aren't close. Because the offense should be on better footing in its second year and, mainly, because they cleaned up against James Madison last season, I'll say they beat Richmond and repeat their 4-8 record. As I said, a pause before the next advance. When you lose so many troops you need to regroup before forging ahead, but under General Cutcliffe they'll be bowl bound some day.

80. Louisville Cardinals (Big East #7)

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #92    Success: #73    Overall: #92
Though better, the Cardinals are unlikely to recapture their form of a few years back.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #76   Adj. Rush Yards: #40    Adj. Pass Yards: #64
Hunter Cantwell is gone after a disappointing season in which he threw as many interceptions as touchdowns, and for the first time in a long time an unfamiliar face will take over with junior Justin Burke, a transfer from N.C. State, expected to take over. The offensive line loses two starters with a combined seven years of starting experience with the departures of Eric Wood and George Bussey. All the top receivers return including Doug Beaumont and John Chichester. The running game was sound last year and Victor Anderson returns after going over 1,000 yards and scoring 8 touchdowns. The clear wildcard in this equation is quarterback play.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #92    Adj. Rush Def: #35    Adj. Pass Def: #109
The defensive line is a question, losing three starters who accounted for 12 of the team's 14 sacks including Earl Heyman's six. Two part-time starters return but the pass rush will likely get even worse and the rushing defense suffer. The linebacking corps can pick up some of that slack, however, returning the #1 (Jon Dempsey), #6, #8, and #12 tacklers from last year. The secondary was the defense's achilles' heel last season. Corner Johnny Patrick is back along with safety Daniel Covington, but if the defensive line still can't generate a pass rush then things won't get any better on pass defense, and could get even worse.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Corey Goettsche is back after averaging an average 40.0 per punt, while two placekickers from last year are back after hitting a combined 4 of 8 field goals. However, sophomore Chris Philpott, who handled kickoffs and was just 1 of 3 on field goals, is listed as the starter post-spring. None of last year's kickers connected on a 40-yarder.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #62
Steve Kragthorpe has basically overseen a dip in the fortunes of the Louisville program from the heights it reached under Bobby Petrino, with two mediocre non-bowl seasons under his belt. His 2009 recruiting class is in the bottom half of the Big East and average for the nation as a whole. Worse yet, one of his top recruits, defensive lineman Peni Fiu’angaihetau, did not qualify. Another JUCO player, offensive lineman Joe Evinger, is the only other borderline blue chip in the class, though many others (mostly JUCOs) are above-average. Last year's class included starting defensive tackle Tyler Jessen.

Louisville 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Indiana State	100%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Kentucky	44%	L
9/26	Sat	@	Utah	30%	L
10/2	Fri	vs.	*Pittsburgh	39%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	42%	L
10/17	Sat	@	*Connecticut	42%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Cincinnati	41%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	54%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*West Virginia	38%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Syracuse	60%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*South Florida	36%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Rutgers	37%	L
Favored: 3-9   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook Last year was another disappoinment for Cardinals fans. Long known as a team that exceeded expectations, they've endured two years where the team has underperformed. Not as much was expected last year (SportsRatings had them #69 pre-season and winning 4 or 5 games) but no one thought the defense would outscore the offense in their opener, a 27-2 loss to Kentucky. By mid-season it looked like they'd gotten a handle on things; despite a strange loss to UConn, after a 24-20 upset of South Florida they stood 5-2.

Then came another embarrassing loss to Syracuse, kicking off a five-game skid that culminated with a 63-14 crushing by Rutgers. Last year I wrote: "The last four-game stretch is terrible, and will be worse since they'll be 4-4 or 5-3 after November 1st, with hopes for a bowl game about to be crushed." I did not, however, foresee another loss to the Orange.

I don't predict a loss to Syracuse this year, either, but that's one of the few wins that look certain and we know what happened the last two years. The opener is against 0-12 I-AA Indiana State, and they play a Sun Belt squad for the 2nd year, this time Arkansas State. But Kentucky is on the road this year, and they've got a road game at Utah as well. The Cardinals could finish 3-9 easily, but on the other hand there are enough close games to make a 6-6 year almost likely. If the new quarterback play is excellent it could be a reality; if it's not, and if the defense has problems like last year with pass defense they could finish worse than this year. I'll go with another 5-7 year for the Cardinals and Kragthorpe on the major hot seat.