The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #71 to #75. To see the full list, click here.
| 71. Rice Owls (Conference USA #6; West #4) |
2008 Results: Record: 10-3 Bowl: beat W. Michigan 38-14 (Texas Bowl) Poll finish: AP #35; USA #34
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #51 Success: #35 Overall: #47
Chase Clement is gone and with him the offense that led to their success last year.
Offense (4 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #11 Adj. Rush Yards: #82 Adj. Pass Yards: #4
The Owls' losses on offense are extensive. Chase Clement: 4,119 passing yards (44 TDs) and 693 rushing yards (12 TDs); receivers James Casey and Jarett Dillard: 198 receptions total, over 1,300 yards each, and 33 combined touchdowns (Casey also had 6 rushing TDs); tailback back C.J. Ugokwe (809 yards); and three offensive line starters including 4-year starters Austin Wilkinson and David Berken. The solutions: John Thomas Shepherd (15 attempts last year) or sophomore Alabama transfer Nick Fanuzzi at quarterback; Jeramy Goodson (69 yards last year) at tailback; Toren Dixon (50 rec.) and Corbin Smiter (30) are back at receiver. This is going to be a very different offense, and unfortunately for the Owls, far less effective.
Defense (8 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #106 Adj. Rush Def: #99 Adj. Pass Def: #105
The defense was as bad most of the year as the offense was good, but this year they might be closer to equivalent. Three of four starters return to the defensive line with both linebacker returning as well, thus five of six starters are back at the front of Rice's 4-2-5 scheme which should yield improvement in the rushing defense. The five-man secondary is in good shape, too. Top tackler Andrew Sendejo (3 INT) is back along with four other half-time starters: hybrid safety Travis Bradshaw (#2 tackler), strong safety Chris Jones (#4 tackler), corner Chris Jammer, and Willie Garley (#5 tackler, 2nd string this year). With the front and back of the defense loaded and the eight top tacklers back, there should be marked improvement on this side of the ball.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Mediocre punter Kyle Martens (38.3 yards per punt) will try to improve in his sophomore year. Kicker Clark Fangmeier hit 73 of 73 extra points and 6 of 10 field goals, and should be back after hip surgery, otherwise duties will fall to freshman Chris Boswell.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #88
David Bailiff's first year at Rice was tough at 3-9 and I didn't expect much better for 2008. Instead, the offense took a quantum leap and even overcame the defense's deficiencies and Rice won their first 10-win season and bowl win in over 50 years. His 3rd recruiting class is much better, ranking near the middle of the CUSA. Offensive lineman Bobby Janisch from Houston is one of a half-dozen above-average prospects.
Rice 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | @ | *UAB | 56% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | @ | Texas Tech | 25% | L | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | @ | Oklahoma State | 24% | L | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | vs. | Vanderbilt | 41% | L | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *Tulsa | 45% | L | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | Navy | 62% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | @ | *East Carolina | 40% | L | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | vs. | *Central Florida | 57% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | @ | *Southern Methodist | 58% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | *Tulane | 70% | W | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | vs. | *UTEP | 53% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | @ | *Houston | 42% | L | |||
Favored: 6-6 Projected: 6-6 |
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2009 Season Outlook From Rice's first two games it was clear that offense was going to win them some games, scoring 56 and 42 in wins over SMU and Memphis. Vanderbilt's defense and Texas' offense and defense were too much, and Tulsa's offense overwhelmed the defense but other than that it was the same winning formula: scoring a lot of points and holding the other team to fewer points, even if it's just 5 or 7 fewer.
By the end of the year the Owls had won six straight and headed into a bowl game with Western Michigan that had shootout written all over it. Instead, Rice mopped the floor with the Broncos, holding them to 14 for their first bowl win since the 1953 season.
This year the losses on offense are heavy. There are still good receivers, but not the duo they had before. And with Clement gone there will be an unproven quarterback at the helm playing behind offensive line issues. The defense should be much better, however, but not enough to offset the losses on offense. Bailiff did a good job getting them prepared for last year and I'm sure they'll improve over the course of the season on offense, which is good because the majority of their winnable games come late in the season. With a 2nd-half push they could reach bowl eligibility again. They might win their 2nd bowl game since 1954 but their 2nd 10-win season since that era will have to wait.
| 72. Kentucky Wildcats (SEC #11; East #6) Polls: USA/Coaches: #42 |
2008 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Beat East Carolina 25-19 (Liberty) Poll finish: USA #38
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #62 Success: #54 Overall: #63
After losing two more starters this summer the Wildcats may struggle this year in an extra-tough SEC.
Offense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #72 Adj. Rush Yards: #72 Adj. Pass Yards: #87
It seems that the quarterback job is settled, with Mike Hartline the starter while Randall Cobb is permanently at wide receiver, save a wildcat formation here and there. Hartline could stand to improve all his stats from last year (the 55% completion rate, the 1,666 yards, only 9 TDs and 8 interceptions), but he'll have plenty of guys to throw to. Top receiver Dicky Lyons is gone as is starter E.J. Adams who left after spring. But Kentucky's receiving yardage wasn't concentrated in any set of hands, and six returnees had between 181 and 204 yards including Cobb and tight end T.C. Drake. The running game loses Tony Dixon (7 TDs) but again, the yardage was spread out with Cobb the #2 (7 TDs) and two others over 300 yards. The offensive line returns three starters. The offense is in better shape than six returning starters implies because the production in skill positions was so spread out and most of the reserves are back as well.
Defense (4 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #51 Adj. Rush Def: #65 Adj. Pass Def: #60
The defense isn't in as good of shape. The front four returns just one starter as Jeremy Jarmon, counted on to anchor the line with senior Corey Peters, failed a drug test and was ruled ineligible. He entered the NFL supplemental draft and will be a big loss for the 'Cats. At linebacker they return Micah Johnson, the team's #2 tackler last year who had 13 total tackles for loss, but lose #1 tackler Braxon Kelly. The secondary is not as spotty even though just one full-time starter returns from last year. Trevard Lindley is a three-year starter and batted down 11 passes last year and intercepted four. Two half-time starters return at safety (Ashton Cobb and Matt Lentz) but they are listed behind Calvin Harrison and sophomore Winston Guy. Paul Warford is back from '07 at the other corner, so this unit is in far better shape than the front seven.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Tim Masthay (45.2 average) is gone, and last year's short punter Ryan Tydlacka (16 inside the 20 of 22 punts) takes over. Kicker Lones Sieber (11 of 19 FGs) is back.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #24
Rich Brooks is fighting the good fight in trying to build a winning football program at basketball school Kentucky. He's made a lot of progress last year but it's hard to get over the hump in the SEC. A good case in point is recruiting. This year the good news is he probably scored a top 25 class. The bad news is that it ranks 11th out of 12 schools in the conference. His top recruits for '09 include quarterback Ryan Mossakowski and defensive lineman DeQuin Evans—and defensive lineman Donte Rumph, who failed to qualify academically for the 2nd straight year.
UK 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | N | Miami (Ohio) | 70% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | vs. | Louisville | 56% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | vs. | *Florida | 0% | L | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *Alabama | 25% | L | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | @ | *South Carolina | 42% | L | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | @ | *Auburn | 37% | L | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | vs. | Louisiana-Monroe | 66% | W | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi State | 61% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | Eastern Kentucky | 77% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | @ | *Vanderbilt | 34% | L | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | @ | *Georgia | 30% | L | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | vs. | *Tennessee | 48% | L | |||
Favored: 5-7 Projected: 5-7 |
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2009 Season Outlook Last year was a transitional season post-Andre Woodson, and there was a quarterback controversy between Hartline and Cobb. The offense suffered accordingly. The defense played well early as expected, giving up only 20 points in the first four games, but once they were past the easier early-season teams the offense couldn't produce, and holding Alabama to 17 and South Carolina to 24 didn't yield victories. They edged Arkansas 21-20 and Mississippi 14-13 but lost their final three to end up 6-6. A sloppy Liberty bowl ended in a 25-19 win over East Carolina with some momentum toward this year.
This year a lot of starters were gone, and it could have been worse if several players hadn't returned for their senior year instead of opting for the NFL. Even so, two of these returnees (Jarmon and Adams) ended up in the supplemental draft this summer anyway, and 2009 turned into a rebuilding year.
Once again the Wildcats have a favorable non-conference schedule, with Miami of Ohio, Louisville, ULM, and Eastern Kentucky all tagged as wins. Which is good because there aren't many SEC games they are expected to win. Also, seven games are at home with one on a neutral field; they'll probably lose the four road games. The cumulative projection gives them almost six wins; it may come down to the game against Tennessee (at home) as to whether the Wildcats go bowling this year or not. Considering all their personnel losses and the state of the SEC this year, it would be quite an accomplishment.
| 73. Iowa State Cyclones (Big Twelve #12; North #6) |
2008 Results: Record: 2-10 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #93 Success: #112 Overall: #94
The Cyclones should be a lot better this year but still at the bottom of the Big 12 North.
Offense (8 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #77 Adj. Rush Yards: #84 Adj. Pass Yards: #28
Austen Arnaud became a potent offensive player last season even as the Cyclones struggled to compete in the Big Twelve, throwing for 2,800 yards and 15 touchdowns and rushing for 400 yards and another 5 scores. There should be more ground options this year with leading rusher Alexander Robinson (703 yds) back and Florida transfer Bo Williams eligible. Leading receiver R.J. Sumrall (7 TDs) is gone but the rest of the corps is back. And while the O-line returns just one full-time starter there are several half- and part-time starters returning to give the 'Clones good protection as they move to a no-huddle spread offense.
Defense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #96 Adj. Rush Def: #83 Adj. Pass Def: #116
The defense, particularly the pass defense, is what kept the Cyclones out of the win column despite an improving offense last season, and it remains their chief concern. Having terrible pass defense in the Big Twelve is a recipe for disaster, and this year might not be much better. They lose three who started the majority of games but have free safety James Smith (#1 tackler) back and several part-timers at corner including #5 tackler Leonard Johnson (2 int). At linebacker the #2 and #3 tacklers—Jesse Smith and Fred Garrin—are back. And while the rushing defense wasn't great last year it will still be the mainstay of the defense as two starters are back plus Chris Lyle who was the team's #7 tackler. Five of the top seven tacklers are back overall and the defense should be at least somewhat better.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Mike Brandtner (41.6 average) and Grant Mahoney (17 of 25 FG) are back at punter and kicker for the Cyclones.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #60
With all the coaching changes in recent years (Gene Chizik was here just two years) it's remarkable that recruiting remained steady for the most part before Paul Rhoads' first season. Rhoads makes it the 2nd former Auburn defensive coordinator in a row to coach Iowa State, who hasn't had a winning team the last three seasons nor more than seven wins since 2000 (which may be why Rhoads' contract gives a 100K bonus for every win over the 7th). Though the recruiting class is about average nationally it ranks 2nd to last in the Big 12. They did out-recruit in-state rival Iowa this year, which is interesting, though the Cyclones still got fewer big-impact players. While there are several prospects with above-average potential the closest the Cyclones got to a blue chip was Darrius Reynolds, a QB from Reedly, CA who will probably play receiver.
Iowa State 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | N. Dakota St. | 65% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Iowa | 32% | L | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | @ | Kent State | 53% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | vs. | Army | 71% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | N | *Kansas State | 48% | L | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | @ | *Kansas | 29% | L | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | vs. | *Baylor | 38% | L | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | *Nebraska | 39% | L | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | @ | *Texas A&M | 44% | L | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | *Oklahoma State | 30% | L | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | *Colorado | 50% | W | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | @ | *Missouri | 33% | L | |||
Favored: 4-8 Projected: 5-7 |
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2009 Season Outlook Iowa State got their wins out of the way early last year, and though they had an easier time with I-AA South Dakota State than I thought they would the season went about like I expected, with no wins in the Big Twelve.
New offensive coordinator Tom Herman comes from Rice, where he faced a situation (somewhat) similar to this year's Cyclones: a talented quarterback, deep receiving squad, poor defense, and a losing team. But the Rice offense was so powerful in 2008 that it made the defense's deficiencies all but irrelevant in most games and the Owls finished 10-3.
That was in his *second* year at Rice, however. The first year they went 3-9, which is what the Cyclones will do if they follow the script (with the Colorado game a tossup). Again the wins will come early in the season: the other Dakota, Kent State again (if they can win their first road game in four years)...and scheduling kindness gives them Army at home. The Big 12 schedule looks daunting again, although there are a few close games they could nab and between those and upsets the Cyclones could come close to bowl eligibility this season. But I think if Iowa State is going to have a breakthrough year it will have to wait until next year. By then the team will have absorbed the new system, Arnaud will be a senior, and like Rice, the offense can power its way to victory despite the defensive shortcomings. If it happens this year Paul Rhoads will look like a miracle worker and Auburn will feel like they made a bad deal.
| 74. Air Force Falcons (Mountain West #4) |
2008 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to Houston 34-28 (Armed Forces) Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #57 Success: #53 Overall: #56
Air Force once again looks weaker than the previous year, can Troy Calhoun coach them to another bowl game?
Offense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #64 Adj. Rush Yards: #4 Adj. Pass Yards: #117
Some pundits keep calling for Air Force to upgrade its passing game, but for this offensive style the running game is paramount. That said, sophomore quarterback Tim Jefferson's 655 yards represents an upgrade for the Falcons and he should only be better this year. Tight end Josh Cousins is among the three top receivers back (Kyle Haldeman will miss at least the first three games with a broken collarbone), and the Falcons should raise their low passing totals with Jefferson at the helm a full year. But the running game is where they should be striving to finish #1 in the nation. Their top rusher, fullback Todd Newell is gone but the #2, tailback Asher Clark returns with four others who had 200+ yards so there will be plenty of options. Three starters return on the offensive line including 3-year starter Nick Charles. With Jefferson more experienced and Clark able to play QB in a pinch the offense should be in good shape.
Defense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #47 Adj. Rush Def: #43 Adj. Pass Def: #39
The defense was decent across the board last year, but this year the rushing defense is going to be the main concern as just three of the front seven return. Nose guard Ben Garland is back but is the only starter returning to the front three. Two starters are back in the middle four including #1 tackler Ken Lamendola. The secondary was good last year and should be even better, with Chris Thomas (5 sacks from safety) and Anthony Wright back. Corner Reggie Rembert is still with the team but suspended for an unknown amount of games. At full strength the pass defense will be even better.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Ryan Harrison handled both chores for the Falcons last year kicking 24 of 29 field goals and averaging 38.9 per punt. Brandon Geyer averaged a whopping 48.9 yards (but on just 9 punts) and will take over that job, while junior Zack Bell is lined up as kicker.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #119
Troy Calhoun worked wonders in his first year as Falcon head coach, turning the team around from 4-8 to 9-3. Last year they faced steep losses, returning only 8 starters. I wrote "anything beyond six wins is more evidence that Troy Calhoun is a great coach" and he proved himself again as the team went 8-4 and went to a 2nd straight Armed Forces Bowl which they again lost in a close game. Recruiting at Air Force is a challenge, especially since it's the only academy in a conference. This season's class consists of a few dozens recruits of Division I-A caliber and none that are highly-touted, putting Calhoun's '09 class at the bottom of the MWC and the nation. The need wasn't as great this year since last year's class ranked in the middle of the country and had standouts such as A.J. Wallerstein who will see plenty of time on the offensive line as a sophomore; there will be plenty more playing from that class coming from stints on the prep school and JV teams.
Air Force 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Nicholls State | 76% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | @ | Minnesota | 33% | L | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | @ | *New Mexico | 53% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | vs. | *San Diego State | 68% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | @ | Navy | 54% | W | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | *TCU | 33% | L | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | vs. | *Wyoming | 65% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | *Utah | 33% | L | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | @ | *Colorado State | 53% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | Army | 70% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | *UNLV | 58% | W | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | @ | *BYU | 40% | L | |||
Favored: 8-4 Projected: 6-6 |
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2009 Season Outlook Air Force didn't waste time in '08, picking up right where they left off with three wins including a 31-28 victory at Houston. They lost two close games that would have made their season special—one to Utah, who went undefeated, and to rival Navy. But they reeled off five straight wins, four MWC teams and Army. Things were looking good at 8-2 but they had BYU and TCU left and couldn't pull off either upset. Rematched with Houston (why oh why?) in the Armed Services Bowl, it was close again but they lost this time around. Going 8-4 was quite an accomplishment as 4-8 wouldn't have been surprising considering all the personnel they lost.
They lose a lot this year, too, but still have 12 starters back on offense and defense and they cover the missing positions pretty well. Thus despite again being not as good as the year before, any decline might not show up in the Falcons' record. Three of these wins are very close and could go the other way, so they'll need some luck in winning close games, but I'll call that "intangibles of coaching" and give credit to Calhoun. The projection of 6-6 might be more realistic but either way, the Falcons should be bowl-bound again in 2009.
| 75. Buffalo Bulls (Mid-American #4; East #2) |
2008 Results: Record: 8-6 Bowl: Lost to UConn 38-20 (International) Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #66 Success: #60 Overall: #66
Turner Gill shopped around but ended up back at Buffalo. Syracuse's loss is their gain, suckers.
Offense (5 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #43 Adj. Rush Yards: #85 Adj. Pass Yards: #42
Drew Willy was perhaps the least-well-known quarterback to throw for 3,300 yards and 25 TDs in 2008 with only 6 interceptions. Now one of his little-used backups, probably Zach Maynard, will win the slot. James Starks, too, was one of the least-hyped 1,333 yard/16 TD rushers in the country. Then there's Naaman Roosevelt, a receiver with 100 catches, 1,402 yards and 10 TDs. This was Buffalo's version of Oklahoma State's Robinson/Hunter/Bryant trio, and 2/3 of it is back but only 1/3 of it is back since Starks recently had to undergo shoulder surgery that will keep him out this season, ending his college football career. Receiver Brett Hamlin and tight end Jesse Rack will further aid the new QB, but three full-time starters are missing from the offensive line. They get one back from '07, but everything looks to be a little bit harder this year, and without Starks more will be riding on Brandon Thermilus' shoulders along with the rest of the running back corps.
Defense (8 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #81 Adj. Rush Def: #95 Adj. Pass Def: #89
The defense needs an upgrade and there is returning talent to make it happen. The front four is the most suspect area, particularly after a poor showing in '08, but Anel Montanez is back while Dane Robinson returns from a mid-season. The linebackers this year can make up for any deficiencies up front with starters back at all three positions including Justin Winters, the team's #1 tackler and Raphael Akobundu also a full-time starter. Scott Pettigrew started most of the year and Tom Drewes the rest of it, but both may take a back seat to incoming freshman Darius Willis. As stacked as the Bulls are at linebacker the secondary is equally loaded, with three full-time starters (Davonte Shannon, Mike Newton, and Domonic Cook—the team's #2, 3, and 4 tacklers) back plus Josh Thomas and Kendrick Hawkins handling the other corner slot. In all the 8 top tacklers return and the back seven of this defense could be scary; as long as the D-line gels the Buffaloes should be a lot tougher to gain yards on.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Buffalo had serviceable punting and kicking last year, provided by Peter Fardon (39.1 average) and A.J. Principe (12 of 17 FG, 48 of 52 xp). Both return.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #114
With all the hype surrounding head coach Turner Gill, you'd think he'd be getting great recruiting classes, at least relative to the MAC, which might be the key to his success. But it's not so simple. Sure, Gill is getting great recruits for a new I-A school that was consistently winning 1 or 2 games a year until he took over. But for the FBS, and even the MAC, his recruiting classes rank very near the bottom.
This tells us one of two (or both) things: either Gill and his staff are seeing things in these recruits that others don't, or he gets more out of what little he's getting. Clearly Buffalo is a fairly talented team at present, yet still there are freshmen and redshirt freshmen all over the 2-deep. If these classes are (were) so bad, why is Darrius Willis (originally part of '08 class) starting at linebacker? And Steven Means at defensive end? And Terry Peden and David Skrip expected to contribute on the D- and O-lines? That's not even looking at true sophomores. Gill is building a team and building it out of the same blocks everyone else is, but his finished product looks better.
Buffalo 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | @ | UTEP | 44% | L | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Pittsburgh | 40% | L | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | @ | Central Florida | 48% | L | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | *Temple | 44% | L | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *Central Michigan | 48% | L | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | Gardner-Webb | 77% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | vs. | *Akron | 54% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | *Western Michigan | 51% | W | |||
| 11/3 | Tue | vs. | *Bowling Green | 57% | W | |||
| 11/10 | Tue | vs. | *Ohio | 62% | W | |||
| 11/18 | Wed | @ | *Miami (Ohio) | 65% | W | |||
| 11/27 | Fri | @ | *Kent State | 53% | W | |||
Favored: 7-5 Projected: 6-6 |
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2009 Season Outlook Buffalo had a rocky road to the top last year, but they'll take it. Whipping UTEP in the opener was great, and they played Pitt and Missouri better than most people imagined, while beating Temple on a Hail Mary. They had tough losses at Central Michigan and overtime at home against W. Michigan, but then came a great string of wins, five in a row, and three of them in overtime, before a close loss to Kent State. Still, they went to the MAC championship game against heavily favored and undefeated Ball State and came out winners. The bowl loss to UConn was disappointing but the MAC crown was more than anyone could have imagined a few years ago without sacrificing their sanity.
This year looks like a tale of two seasons. Five close losses—Pitt at home and three losses on the road, followed by Central Michigan at home—might be in store for Buffalo early on. But don't get discouraged, Bulls fans...!
...because even and 0-5 start might not mean disaster. After that the Bulls should win all the rest of the close games on route to seven straight victories. Realistically this probably won't happen—they'll drop a game or two, just like it's probable that they'll win at least one of their first five. When it all averages out the Bulls might be 7-5, or 6-6 in some other configuration. But the bottom line is that they've got to keep their heads up as the offense finds its footing; if the first five games discourage them it could get ugly. Conversely, if they come out of the first five shining—say, with an upset of Pitt, or a 4-1 tally? It could be a breakthrough year even greater than '08. I'm a realist, though, and think that matching last year's regular season total of 7-5 is a more reasonable expectation, especially now that Starks is lost.
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