The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers team #7. To see the full list, click here.
| 7. California Golden Bears (Pac-10 #2) Polls: AP #12, USA/Coaches #12 |
2008 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Beat Miami 24-17 (Emerald) Poll finish: AP #26, USA #25
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #17 Success: #23 Overall: #17
California has their best team in year but still plays second fiddle in the Pac-10.
Offense (7 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #20 Adj. Rush Yards: #31 Adj. Pass Yards: #71
Jahvid Best's 2008 season was like a compressed version of Reggie Bush's two years at USC. Early on he impressed with big plays, and all-purpose yardage, gaining mention in Heisman circles (mine at least). Then he finished the season with some monster performances and averaged an incredible 8.1 yards per carry. Best (1,580 yards, 15 TDs) returns and is the de facto #4 Heisman favorite behind the Big Three QBs. Speaking of QBs, Kevin Riley (1,360 yards, 14 TDs, 6 int) now has that job all to himself after sharing with the departed Nate Longshore (1,051 yards, 10 TDs, 4 int). The two top receivers from last year are back (Nyan Boateng and Verran Tucker) but tight end Cameron Morrah's 8 TD catches will be missed, especially since projected replacement Tad Smith tore his ACL this summer. The offensive line has three starters back but loses a couple of 3-year starters. Still, with Best and backup Shane Vereen (715 yards) carrying the ball production will be good.
Defense (8 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #19 Adj. Rush Def: #39 Adj. Pass Def: #26
The 2009 Bear defense will be extra-strong up front and in back, with a soft spot in the middle. Essentially all three starters return on the defensive line, as only a couple of part-time starters are lost while Tyson Alualu (6 sacks), Derrick Hill, Cameron Jordan all return. The secondary also has all its starters back: corners Syd'Quan Thompson (4 int) and Darian Hagan (3 int)—who combined to break up 29 passes—rejoin safeties Marcus Ezeff (3 int) and Brett Johnson (2 int). In the middle, though, they lose three full-time starting linebackers, including #1 tackler Anthony Felder, #2 tackler Zack Follett (10.5 sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss), and Worrell Williams. But Eddie Young returns and Michael Mohammed was the #3 tackler and could be a superstar this year. In all the defense should be rock-solid up front and the secondary will be one of the best in the country, while at linebacker they will be weaker but Mohammed could be up for some national awards.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Bryan Anger punted well as a freshman, averaging 43.1 yards per kick. He's back, as are Cal's two placekickers, Giorgio Tavecchio (9 of 13 FG) and David Seawright (5 of 7), also both sophomores. Tavecchio has the starting spot as placekicker and handles kickoffs.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #42
Cal coach Jeff Tedford has a strong reputation as a coach and as a developer of quarterback talent. He also recruits great talent at running back as it seems Cal always has another 1,000 yard rusher in the pipeline. This year's class isn't their best, but still is competitive for the Pac-10 and they didn't sign as many players this year. Running back Dasarte Yarnway from San Francisco and quarterback Allen Bridgeford of Mission Viejo are two blue chips who may carry on Cal's strong tradition at these positions.
2009 Season Outlook The Bears had a rather undramatic 2008. They beat all the teams they were supposed to and no one else, save perhaps a defeat of Oregon that wasn't that big of an upset at home. The opener over Michigan State was at home, too, so no surprises there. They lost to USC and Oregon State on the road, and dropped a few surprising games such as Maryland and Arizona, also both on the road. In all they were 7-0 at home and 1-4 awy, the one road win being Washington State. They beat Miami as expected in the Emerald Bowl. At no time did they really threaten to win the Pac-10, and certainly not the national title. The main excitement of the year was watching Best break out as a major talent, while the typical quarterback confusion continued to put a damper on a strong season.
Cal 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Maryland | 84% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Eastern Washington | 89% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | @ | Minnesota | 62% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | *Oregon | 56% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *Southern California | 47% | L | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 70% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 100% | W | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | @ | *Arizona State | 62% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon State | 65% | W |
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| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 59% | W | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | @ | *Stanford | 54% | W | |||
| 12/5 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 79% | W | |||
Favored: 11-1 Projected: 8-4 |
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This year the Bears will be in the running for both the Pac-10 and national title. If they get past Oregon in Eugene they'll have a showdown with USC at home, a game that's well within the range of possibility for them to win. The rest of the schedule is full of reliable wins until a possible trap at Stanford. The season might look a lot like 2004, with only a close loss to USC on the slate and an 11-1 record.
But Cal was so bad on the road last year that I can't see them going undefeated. They don't have the luxury of 7 home games this time around. Either they lose to USC or one of the road traps gets them. The conservative cumulative projection gives them 8 wins; that could happen if they lose all the close road games. I think it's going to be an exciting year for Cal football, with Best and the offense running smoothly while the defense shuts teams down. If they do lose to USC and the Trojans go undefeated, maybe this time they'll be selected for the Rose Bowl as they should have been in 2004.
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