2009 Pre-season Rankings - #56 to #60: Houston, Michigan, Central Michigan, Tennessee, Virginia

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #56 to #60. To see the full list, click here.

56. Houston Cougars (Conference USA #4; West #2)        Polls: AP #50, USA/Coaches #57

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Air Force 34-28 (Armed Forces)   Poll finish: USA #40
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #53    Success: #51    Overall: #52
The Cougars are back with their high-powered passing attack.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #16   Adj. Rush Yards: #64    Adj. Pass Yards: #2
Of all the explosive passing offenses in the country Houston with Case Keenum was right up there with the best of them. Keenum topped 5,000 yards and had 44 TDs against 11 interceptions while completing 67% of his attempts. Tyron Carrier caught 9 of those TDs and finished with over 1,000 yards receiving; 5 others return that had over 400 yards though #2 receiver Mark Hafner (11 TDs) departs. Houston wasn't just a passing team; they had a respectable ground game led by Bryce Beall's 1,247 yards and 13 touchdowns, while Keenum ran for seven touchdowns himself. Add on offensive line that returns three starters and it looks like Houston's O will pick up where they left off last season but even stronger.
Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #98    Adj. Rush Def: #93    Adj. Pass Def: #96
The D is another matter. Poor at best last year they may decline as much as the offense elevates, making the team a wash as far as improvement is concerned. The front four return just one starter, Isaiah Thompson, to a line that couldn't stop the run last year. They need to find a way to pressure the pass minus Phillip Hunt's 14 sacks but one potential answer, end Mohammed Usman, is now off the team. At linebacker Marcus McGraw, the team's top tackler in 2008, returns with Matt Nicholson. Though they lose one starter, #3 tackler Cody Lubojasky, his replacement is #4 tackler C.J. Cavness so this is clearly the strength of the defense. The passing D was as bad as the rushing D last year and the secondary returns just one starter, senior Brandon Brinkley who had 4 interceptions. Backup Loyce Means also had 4 interceptions and helps fill out the corner slot but with only 4 of their top 12 tacklers back the defense in again a questionable one.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Chase Turner booted a 45.5 yard average for the Cougars last year and returns at punter along with both of last year's kickers. Ben Bell will battle it out again with Jordan Mannisto; Bell connected on 10 of 15 while Mannisto hit 2 of 3. Neither made any over 40 yards.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #54
Kevin Sumlin's second recruiting class is a big improvement on 2008's slight group, a good sign now that he's settled in at head coach. The group is near the top of the CUSA, arguably behind only Southern Miss. While the top players—tackle Roy Watts and receiver A.J. Dugat—aren't any more highly-touted than last year's best (many of whom didn't qualify such as Jarvis Smith or are no longer with the team like Anthony Lewis) but there are a lot more above-average recruits than last season and 2010 looks even better so far.

Houston 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Northwestern State	80%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Oklahoma State	28%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Texas Tech	36%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*UTEP	50%	W
10/10	Sat	@	Mississippi State	59%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Tulane	67%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Southern Methodist	69%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	50%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Tulsa	43%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Central Florida	54%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	64%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Rice	58%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  The team started slow last year at 1-3, with the offense keeping the team in games but not keeping up with Tulsa, Air Force, or even Colorado State. Then Keenum & co. kicked into high gear and scored 41+ against six of their next seven opponents, losing only at Marshall and crushing powerhouse Tulsa 70-30. They lost the shootout with Rice 56-42 but got a rematch with Air Force and this time won another close game.

This year's success will be decided by two key games: At UTEP and Southern Miss at home. Right now those two tossups are split, but both could go either way and lead to a 7-5 season or a 9-3 success. The cumulative projection stands at just over 6.5 wins.

Oklahoma State looks too tough this year, and while the Texas Tech game will be a fun shootout to watch, the Cougar pass defense probably can't handle them. Then comes a stretch of five games, all winnable, with UTEP first and Southern Miss last. UCF is another close game that should be in the "W" column and Rice is weaker this year. All in all 6-6 is the lowest they should possibly go with this offense, meaning another bowl game is all but certain. But they're on the cusp of 9-3 though I still don't think they'll win the CUSA.

57. Michigan Wolverines (Big Ten #10)        Polls: USA/Coaches  #57

2008 Results:    Record: 3-9   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #78    Success: #102    Overall: #78
Michigan takes their first step back toward a winning program after a disastrous 2008.
Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #80   Adj. Rush Yards: #38    Adj. Pass Yards: #105
First order of business: fix this offense. First order within that order: find a quarterback. With Steven Threet (1,105 yds, 9TD 7int) off to Arizona State, that leaves backup Nick Sheridan (613 yards, 2TD 5int) the next option. But not so fast—surely the Wolverines can do better than his 46% completion rate? Enter Tate Forcier, a true freshman who threw four touchdown passes and ran for another in the spring game. Another frosh, Denard Robinson, is in the mix, too, but Forcier is far ahead of him and the best fit for the offense. Three wide receivers are back; Martavious Odoms, Greg Matthews, and Darryl Stonum didn't set any statistical records, having just 3 TD catches between them, but there were QB issues and Odoms and Stonum were true freshmen last year. The running game: Sam McGuffie started most of last year and is gone, but Brandon Minor outgained him, had a better average and scored 9 TDs to McGuffie's 3. McGuffie transferred to Rice, leaving Minor to run behind this year's greatly improved offensive line. All starters are back, four full time and a few part-timers that filled the left guard slot in '08. Two of the full-time starters were literally full time starters; Center David Molk and right guard David Moosman took every single snap at their positions. It's not often an offense improves when the starting quarterback and running back transfer out, but that will be the case with the Wolverines.
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #78    Adj. Rush Def: #36    Adj. Pass Def: #66
The defense was supposed to carry the team along last year while the offense found its feet. Instead the defense was pedestrian by Big Ten standards and terrible by Michigan standards. Now with the departure of most of the D-line and secondary, they'll be counting on a solid linebacking corps to keep things from getting worse. Two starters return at linebacker for the Wolverines—top tacklers Obi Ezeh and Jonas Mouton—and Steve Brown moves from safety to an additional linebacker/safety hybrid spot. Brown's departure leaves Donovan Warren the only starter in the secondary. The defensive line, too, has only one of four players back, but Brandon Graham (10 sacks + 10 tackles for loss) is a good foundation for the move to a three-man front line. With last year's experienced squad underperforming things don't look great for this unit but they certainly have talent at key spots.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Zoltan Mesko—43 yard average—returns while kicker K.C. Lopata (10 of 15 field goals) departs. True freshman Brendan Gibbons is slated to replace him.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #10
Rich Rodriguez has been a polarizing figure, to say the least, in Ann Arbor. Those griping about Lloyd Carr for so many years got their wish when he left. There figured to be a bit of a transitional period into the very different offense, and losing an enormous amount of talent didn't help, but no one thought Michigan would suffer a Notre Dame-style meltdown. Rodriguez' track record is good and the recruiting classes have been strong, 2nd in the Big Ten to Ohio State. Defensive tackle William Campbell is among the top recruits in the nation, and defensive back Justin Turner isn't far behind. And of course there are quarterback prospects Forcier and Robinson (who famously doesn't tie his shoes, hence the nickname "Shoelace"), one of whom may guide the team this year.

Michigan 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	63%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	40%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	68%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Indiana	68%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Michigan State	33%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Iowa	30%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	Delaware State	90%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	37%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Illinois	37%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	53%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	44%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Ohio State	41%	L
Favored: 5-7   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Last year's nightmare is over, that's the good news. No more mocking Notre Dame for their bad fortune in 2007 since Michigan went through the same thing. They weren't quite as abysmal as the '07 Irish, but in many ways it was worse because the Irish had struggled through losing seasons in the recent past, where UM's last losing season was in 1967.

Michigan's best accomplishment might have been almost beating Utah in game one. They beat Miami of Ohio in a sloppy game, then lost to Notre Dame one year after beating them 38-0. They actually beat Wisconsin to go 2-2, but it was downhill after that. Losing to Illinois wasn't so shameful, but then the Wolverines lost at home to Toledo from the MAC. After that they had just one more win, beating Minnesota. Interestingly, two of the teams they beat had winning records, showing there was talent and potential but the team played sloppy and made mistakes all season.

Like Notre Dame of last year, Michigan will probably go 6-6—neither a winning season nor a losing one. Being Michigan they'll go to a bowl game and probably win it as the talent on the squad will have matured. The most noteworthy game on the schedule is actually Delaware State, who screwed up their own schedule by taking the Michigan game and will have to forfeit a conference game because of it.

The losses on the slate are pretty emphatic overall, so they'll have to pull one upset. If it's Notre Dame that will give the team some momentum early on. If it's Ohio State at home, then Rodriguez will have arrived. Otherwise, he'll still be on a hot seat of sorts, but with the level of talent he's recruiting it shouldn't take long before the Wolverines are back.

58. Central Michigan Chippewas (Mid-American #1; West #1)    Polls: AP #41, USA #49

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Lost to Florida Atlantic 24-21 (Motor City)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #80    Success: #67    Overall: #79
Dan LeFevour's senior year will be bolstered by a tougher defense.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #52   Adj. Rush Yards: #100    Adj. Pass Yards: #8
It seems like Dan LeFevour's been around forever, and he's finally a senior to the relief (next year) of the MAC. Last year was typical, 67% completions, 2,784 yards, 21 TDs, 6 int, nearly 600 yards and 6 TDs rushing. Look for even better totals this year if he's 100% as his top targets—Antonio Brown (998 yards, 7 TDs), Bryan Anderson (865, 6), and Kito Poblah (532, 3) are back. And with #2 ground gainer Ontario Sneed gone LeFevour may pass even more this year, or run more and reach 1,000 yards as he did in '07. But the offensive line is a concern; three starters are gone including iron man Andrew Hartline. But junior Colin Miller and Jeff Maddux provide a strong foundation to build on.
Defense (9.5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #97    Adj. Rush Def: #78    Adj. Pass Def: #119
The defense, though, is where the team with get its boost in 2009. Three of the front four are back including Frank Zombo who had 9 sacks last year. The three starting linebackers return including Nick Bellore who led the team with 148 tackles, 58 more than #2 Bobby Seay. Seay anchors a secondary which was terrible last season but is reloaded with Eric Frasier and Josh Gordy also back. Taylor Bradley is redshirting this year but '07 starter Chaz West returns from redshirting last year and part-time starters Kirkston Edwards and Tommy Mama will fill the gap. Look for a much better finish than #119 in pass defense next year and a better scoring defense than #97 as the squad returns its top dozen tacklers from 2008.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Brett Hartman averaged a standard 40 yards a punt last year while Andrew Aguila hit 9 of 14 field goals. Both return.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #64
This year's recruiting class is much improved over last year's, with more players of added potential such as in-state recruit defensive back Shamair Benton. Butch Jones has carried on Brian Kelly's success with the team and with this year's class being #1 in the MAC the future after Dan LeFevour looks promising.

C. Michigan 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Arizona	29%	L
9/12	Sat	@	Michigan State	33%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	Alcorn State	100%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Akron	59%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Buffalo	51%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	68%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Western Michigan	56%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Bowling Green	56%	W
10/31	Sat	@	Boston College	41%	L
11/11	Wed	vs.	*Toledo	61%	W
11/18	Wed	@	*Ball State	50%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Northern Illinois	65%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Last season was rough and started out very rough, with a close win over Ohio following a blowout loss to Georgia. A more apt challenge—their third attempt at beating Purdue in two years—almost came to fruition but they again suffered a close loss to the Boilermakers. When the MAC season got into full swing things didn't get easier but they were successful, winning six in a row by a grand total of 29 points. Hopes of winning the MAC again were crushed by Ball State and closing losses at Eastern Michigan and to Florida Atlantic in the Motor City Bowl made the year disappointing compared to 2007.

2009 opens with two tough and interesting road challenges, Arizona and Michigan State. They get a breather at home with 2-10 FBS Alcorn State, then head into the MAC season in which they have some key road games—Buffalo and Ball State—which will determine whether they can win the league. A detour to Boston College gives them three BCS teams on the year making 9-3 a bit questionable; they'll have to win both key road games. The cumulative projection gives them seven wins, but I think 8-4 is a reasonable call, splitting the Buffalo/Ball State contests.

The team is set at the skill positions and the defense will improve over last year; the big uncertainty is the offensive line. The schedule gives them two of the better MAC teams on the road which is the only thing that puts the conference outcome in question. We'll learn a lot about this team in the first two games. If they emerge even 1-1, they should go on to be MAC champs without a doubt. If they go 2-0, we'll see them in the top 25.

59. Tennessee Volunteers (SEC #10; East #5)     Polls: AP #37, USA/Coaches: #53

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #54    Success: #66    Overall: #57
The Lane Kiffin era begins in Knoxville. How long it lasts is anybody's guess.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #87   Adj. Rush Yards: #68    Adj. Pass Yards: #100
Jonathan Crompton and Nick Stevens shared the QB position last year but head coach Kiffin says it'll be one or the other this season; their numbers were similarly poor in '08. The situation with the receivers is iffy: Top receiver Lucas Taylor is gone and senior Austin Rogers tore an ACL in the spring; Gerald Jones is recovering from wrist surgery and deep threat Denarius Moore will miss at least a few games due to a broken foot. The ground game has losses as well with the top two backs gone from last year; senior Monterio Hardesty will have to hold off true freshman Bryce Brown for the job. The offensive line returns two starters, with Chris Scott back from starting full-time in '08 while Vladimir Richard and Jacques McLendon both started six games apiece, but center Josh McNeil recently suffered what may be a career-ending knee injury; with luck he might only miss a month, but more likely he doesn't play this season. The tight end position is set with Jeff Cottam and Luke Stocker both back.
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #18    Adj. Rush Def: #14    Adj. Pass Def: #21
The defense play well all last season. They return just five starters but one of those is all-American strong safety Eric Berry, a darkhorse Heisman candidate (meaning he'll finish 7th in the voting this year as the token defensive player) who had 7 interceptions and three sacks last season. Also back in the secondary is corner Dennis Rogan, and this group should do as well as last year when the defense was #4 in raw passing yards and #21 corrected for their opposition. At linebacker they return Rico McCoy, the team's #2 tackler but the #1 tackler last year, Ellix Wilson, is gone. The front four loses two starters including first-round draft pick Robert Ayers but seniors Wes Brown and Dan Williams are back. Any defense with Berry in it is bound to be good but the rushing numbers may slip a bit along with the scoring numbers. Still, it looks to be the clear strength of the team for a second year.
Kicking Game (1 RS):  Punter Britton Colquitt is gone, having averaged 43.4 last year. Junior Chad Cunningham averaged 39.5 during Colquitt's early-season suspension and will take over full-time. Kicker Daniel Lincoln is hoping to recapture his 2007 form; last season he made just 10 of 18.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #8
Lane Kiffin hasn't kicked off his Tennessee tenure in a low-key manner, say like Gene Chizik at Auburn. So far he's fired his strength coach, caused at least a dozen players to leave the program, and essentially trash-talking at other SEC coaches. The former USC assistant and failed Raiders coach says he want to draw attention to the program and get people talking, whether good or bad. At only 34 he certainly has picked up many enemies and detractors along the way. But will it all work?

There have been many loudmouth coaches that failed miserably, and that's certainly on the table for Kiffin. But just as many downright rude and contemptuous people have become coaching legends: Woody Hayes, Bobby Knight, the list is endless. Kiffin is more the prankster type. But he's hired good assistant coaches including his dad Monte, and according to many he's been relentless as a recruiter. The results of his first class bear that sentiment out: top 10 in the country and including perhaps the #1 overall prize in the nation, running back Bryce Brown who originally chose Miami (Brown's eligibility was being investigated by the NCAA in August but they concluded he was ok to go). The class is far better than last year's final class by Phil Fulmer. Kiffin will soon be the most loved or hated person in Tennessee, but he'll be here to stay if he draws in the talent year after year.

Tennessee 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	76%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	UCLA	56%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Florida	0%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Ohio	64%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	49%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	40%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Alabama	22%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	52%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Memphis	63%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Mississippi	22%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	45%	L
11/28	Sat	@	*Kentucky	50%	W
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  What became Phil Fulmer's final year at UT began with high expectations that crumbled quickly. A sloppy overtime loss to a UCLA team that would prove to be a terrible team; a 30-6 drilling by Florida; another loss (14-12 to Auburn) where the offense failed to function. UT was 1-3 then 3-4 with wins over UAB, Northern Illinois, and a down Mississippi State team. Two SEC losses later in which the team scored in single digits and Fulmer was fired. The team promptly gave up and lost 13-7 at home to Wyoming in the most sluggish performance ever seen at Neyland. They won a couple at the end for their coach but the aftertaste was still bad.

2009 might be a touch better despite the lack of returning starters. Don't count on beating Florida in the Swamp, it ain't gonna happen despite Kiffin's guarantees. But there's a real chance of starting 4-1 if they can take out Auburn at home. After that there are maybe three more wins and a probable even record. A repeat of 5-7 and no bowl is a possibility, while 7-5 isn't much of a stretch. Don't expect UT on top of the college football world this year but it might happen in the next few. If it doesn't Kiffin will be gone—he's that polarizing. If he doesn't bring a national title in five years he'll probably be sent on his way. His gaffes will only be excused if they're tied to SEC championship keychains.

60. Virginia Cavaliers (ACC #10; Coastal #5)

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #61    Success: #45    Overall: #58
The Cavs may be better than last season which doesn't help the revamped coaching staff navigate the log-jammed ACC.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #81   Adj. Rush Yards: #77    Adj. Pass Yards: #66
With Jameel Sewell's return the Cavs can relegate Marc Verica (16 interceptions last year) to 2nd string or even third behind cornerback Vic Hall who might fit the scheme well. The team is moving to a spread offense under new coordinator Gregg Brandon but loses all their top receivers and their top running back, though Mikell Simpson should have a good senior campaign. The retooled offense will operate behind four returning starters, losing standout Eugene Monroe but returning senior tackle Will Barker (started 3 years), juniors Jack Shields (center) and B.J. Cabell (guard), and sophomore Austin Pasztor (guard). Behind this line the offense will get better as the year goes but the early play might be awkward. 
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #40    Adj. Rush Def: #59    Adj. Pass Def: #74
The defense was decent last year but loses quite a bit and might fall victim to the change in offense. Not just because spread offenses put more pressure on the defense due to a higher game temp, but because  starting cornerback and top returning tackler Hall may end up the starting quarterback. Hall already returns punts and if he only plays sparingly at QB might still play corner the majority of time; if he does all three well enough he becomes my darkhorse Heisman candidate this year. The secondary returns two other starters, Ras-I Dowling and Corey Mosley, neither of whom is jumping ship to the offense. The linebackers are a major issue, with the team's three top tacklers gone from the unit leaving only #7 tackler Denzel Burrell. The front three returns Matt Conrath and Nick Jenkins. Overall the top four tacklers are gone and assuming Hall ends up primarily at quarterback it's the top six. After that, though, the next 11 return.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Punter Jimmy Howell (39 ave) returns. Kicker Yannick Reyering (6 of 11 FG) won't be back it seems, due to a knee injury, so Robert Randolph (3 of 4) will likely retain the starting job he earned near the end of the season.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #49
Al Groh is back on the hot seat, one season after he left the hot seat with a great 2007. Among his many new assistant coaches are two '08 head coaches, offensive coordinator Brandon (Bowling Green) and special teams coach Ron Prince (Kansas State). This year's recruiting class is better than last year's, even with the loss of star recruit Morgan Moses, on offensive lineman headed for military academy instead.

Virginia 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	William & Mary	61%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	TCU	37%	L
9/19	Sat	@	Southern Miss	42%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*North Carolina	30%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	Indiana	67%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Maryland	53%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	39%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Duke	58%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	36%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	47%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*Clemson	35%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	40%	L
Favored: 4-8   Projected: 5-7

2009 Season Outlook  After a rocky 2006 the Cavs had a 9-4 2007 with an amazing run of close call wins. Last season it was back to reality. Crushed 52-7 at home by USC and 45-10 at UConn, it was a 31-3 loss to Duke that was the worst and Virginia was 1-3 and all the good will from '07's excitement was evaporating.

The Cavs came roaring back, though, with four straight wins, shutting out Maryland and winning a couple of close games for old time's sake. The future looked bright at 5-3 but then they lost their last four games and the grumbles about Groh were renewed. On the hotseat in '06, off after '07, he was on, off, and back on all in the course of the 2008 season.

This year, unless something exciting and unexpected happens with the new offense, might be the last straw. There are four games I expect them to win and enough close ones to (almost) give them a 6-6 projection, but it's more likely they repeat 5-7 and miss a bowl game again. The offense is the wildcard; if say, Hall becomes a surprise superstar at QB or in tandem with Sewell, and the offensive line is so good that it all works, things could be different. But a spread offense with such a depleted receiver corps is going to have some growing pains, and it doesn't come at a very good time.