2009 Pre-season Rankings - #5 Mississippi, #6 Alabama

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams #5 and #6. To see the full list, click here.

5. Mississippi Rebels (SEC #2; West #1)     Polls: AP #8, USA/Coaches #10

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat Texas Tech 47-34 (Cotton)   Poll finish: AP #14, USA #15
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #13    Success: #8    Overall: #10
A neck-and-neck race in the SEC West could go to the Rebels by a nose.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #17   Adj. Rush Yards: #21    Adj. Pass Yards: #41
Jevan Snead had the audacity to get a vote as pre-season SEC MVP over Tim Tebow, courtesy of Steve Spurrier's staff. That the vote caused controversy is ridiculous; if anyone other than Tebow is the MVP at the end of the season it could very well be Snead, who passed for 2,762 yards and 26 TDs as a sophomore. But Dexter McCluster is just as dynamic, taking direct snaps and leading the team in rushing (655 yards, 6 TDs) while also racking up 625 yards receiving. Shay Hodge (8 TDs) is back at receiver along with half-time starter tight end Gerald Harris, while starting tailback Cordera Eason (647 yards) and backup Brandon Bolden (542) are among several backs vying for carries. The offensive line was crucial to the team's success last year; they lose two full-time starters but two, John Jerry and Daverin Geralds, are back with Reid Neely who started half-time last year and all of 2007. Other than Snead and Bolden everyone mentioned in this paragraph is a senior, so this offense has been around the block.

Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #14    Adj. Rush Def: #4    Adj. Pass Def: #97
With five starters back from the front seven the tough Rebel rushing defense could be just as tough this year. Three are back on the defensive line: Kentrell Lockett, Ted Laurent, and Marcus Tillman, who combined for 20 tackles for loss but just 4 of the team's 38 sacks. With Peria Jerry (7 sacks) gone and Greg Hardy (8.5 sacks) slowed by an injured foot the pass rush might not be as effective. Jonathan Cornell and Allen Walker return at linebacker but starter Ashley Palmer is gone as is backup Tony Fein, the team's #3 tackler last year. The passing defense wasn't as bad as #97, but teams couldn't run on the Rebels so they went to the air. The secondary should be much improved as three senior starters return, two at corner (Marshay Green and Cassius Vaughn) and at safety Kendrick Vaughn (#1 tackler, 4 interceptions). Though the Rebels actually lose four of their top five tacklers the next ten return, and every section of the defense is capable of being as good or better than last season's top 20 unit.

Kicking Game (1 RS): Placekicker Joshua Shene is back after connecting on 17 of 21 field goals in 08. Replacing punter Rob Park (38.9 average) will be senior Justin Sparks.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #18
Houston Nutt really made things difficult for a lot of coaches in the NCAA in the past year. All across the country coaches are trying to build programs or turn them around from adversity, which takes time and much patience on the part of fans and boosters. So what does Nutt do in his first year at Mississippi? He takes a 3-9 team and transforms them into an 8-4 power, along the way beating last year's national champion Florida, the previous year's national champion LSU, Auburn and his former team Arkansas, and blowing out arch-rival Mississippi State 45-0, capping it with bowl win over a top ten opponent. Then he goes out and recruits one of the country's very best recruiting classes. At one time I ranked the 2009 class in the top ten nationally, but major attrition set in and now it's only #8 in the SEC! Some of what has happened: D-back Jamar Hornsby was released from his scholarship after being charged with felony assault; LB Willie Ferrell went to Florida A&M; WR Montez Phillips opted to play baseball; and RB Gabriel Hunter, DB Artice Kellam, LB DeMarcus Knight, DL Eric Smiley, RB Stephen Houston, DL Mike Thomas, and DL Cameron Whigham all either didn't qualify or are going to junior college or both. Amazingly that still leaves over a dozen blue chip-quality players including standouts Pat Patterson (wide receiver) and offensive lineman Bobbie Massie.

2009 Season Outlook  As said above, in Nutt's first year the Rebels beat Florida (after stuffing Tim Tebow on a 4th and 1), Nutt's old team Arkansas (just 23-21 but in Fayetteville), Auburn, LSU on the road (31-13), rival Mississippi State, and Texas Tech 47-34. They lost close games to Wake Forest, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Alabama and won their last six. They take more momentum into this season than just about anyone.

Ole Miss 2009 schedule & forecast
9/6	Sun	@	Memphis	80%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	SE Louisiana	100%	W
9/24	Thu	@	*South Carolina	70%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	62%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	53%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	UAB	90%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	74%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Auburn	65%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Northern Arizona	96%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	76%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	65%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	82%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 9-3

Not only does Mississippi play only five road games, they get three of them out of the way in the first month of the season. They also play two FCS (I-AA) teams, and not particularly good ones either. The potential trap game is at Vanderbilt, which comes right before the showdown with Alabama. Helping matters, though, is the fact that Vanderbilt beat them last year so they won't overlook them. The Rebel-Tide contest on October 3rd should decide the SEC West and have national title implications; as I see the teams about even this year the home field gives the edge to Mississippi.

After that they just have to maintain their focus. Their next test is at Auburn, then they have three more home games starting with a breather (Northern Arizona) and progressing until LSU comes to town. The rivalry game with Mississippi State shouldn't be much more competitive than last year, but if they come in 11-0 it will be huge. I think the Rebels have a good shot at an undefeated year, with one major challenge and a few lesser ones in a fairly kind schedule (as far as the SEC goes). A 9-3 year would mean they dropped some close ones like last year. Like Alabama, I think Mississippi will go 11-1 this year, either losing to Alabama or beating them and losing somewhere else. Which is to say, I don't know who will win that game but both teams will be 11-1 at the end. Since it's in Oxford I'll go with the Rebels, meaning they'll lose one of their road games (Vanderbilt, Auburn, Mississippi State) in an upset. Then they'll play Florida and we'll see what happens in that rematch.

6. Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC #3; West #2)     Polls: AP #5, USA/Coaches #5

2008 Results:    Record: 12-2   Bowl: Lost to Utah 31-17 (Sugar)   Poll finish: AP #6, USA #6
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #11    Success: #6    Overall: #8
A killer defense aims to take the Tide back to the SEC championship game.

Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #22   Adj. Rush Yards: #20    Adj. Pass Yards: #89
When was the last time a #1 team had such an unknown quarterback? That was a question for last season when Alabama was 12-0 with John Parker Wilson at the helm. How many college football fans couldn't even name the Tide QB last year? In fact the Alabama offense wasn't very heralded at all, even though they had the occasional explosive game, such as putting up 31 on Georgia by halftime. Wilson's stats weren't Heisman-quality, just 2,273 yards passing and 10 TDs. Running back Glen Coffee came on strong with 1,383 yards and 10 TDs, and Julio Jones might have been their most famous cog after nearly reaching 1,000 receiving yards in his freshman turn. Jones is back, along with #3 receiver Mike McCoy, but that's it for the "skill" position starters. That doesn't mean things are bad. By not putting up hoary stats Wilson never created the illusion of indispensibility; most think he can be adequately replaced by Greg McElroy. Coffee will be missed but Mark Ingram rushed for 728 yards and 12 TDs last year. And the receiving corps is in good shape as Jones was by far #1 and they are deep with new talent. The offensive line remains a concern, though, as just two starters—Mike Johnson and Drew Davis—return and all-Americans Antoine Caldwell and Andre Smith are lost. Even with adequate talent at the skill positions, everything will be harder with a less effective line, as they learned in last year's bowl game sans Smith.

Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #8    Adj. Rush Def: #2    Adj. Pass Def: #35
The defense won games for the team last year, and will have to do it even more this year. Seniors Brandon Deaderick (assuming his late August gunshot injury is no lasting issue) and Terrence Cody anchor the front three which last year spearheaded the 2nd best rushing defense in the nation. They lose team sack-leader Bobby Greenwood (5) but Lorenzo Washington, another senior, returns after starting in 2007. Look for Alabama to again have a top 5 rushing defense—perhaps even number one given the excellent support from the great linebacker corps. The Tide may have had the best 4-man crew in the country before Brandon Fanney (#3 tackler last year) was suspended and then transferred. Still, three starters are back: #1 tackler Rolando McClain (12 combined tackles for loss, 8 pass break-ups), sophomore Dont'a Hightower (#4 in tackles), and Cory Reamer. The Tide lost depth at the position, too, when several experienced linebackers either transferred (Prince Hall, Charlie Higginbotham), left the team due to injuries (Jester Hennings), or just plain moved on (Charlie Kirschman). The secondary loses interception leader (5) and #2 tackler Rashad Johnson but returning starters Javier Arenas, Kareem Jackson, and Justin Woodall combined to break up 25 passes and intercept 6. The passing defense was the "weak" part of the defense and should be stronger. Overall the defense returns 16 of its top 20 tacklers and after being in the top ten in '08 could be in the top five in scoring defense this season.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  P.J. Fitzgerald (41.1 average) returns as punter, and kicker Leigh Tiffen (20 of 29 FGs, 16 of 19 inside the 40) is back as well. Both are seniors.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #1
Nick Saban has had the best overall recruiting in the country the last two seasons when combined. His 2008 class was initially ranked #1 but has fallen to #3 due to all the attrition, either from non-qualifiers, baseball contracts, or leaving the team after redshirting. Some of that is happening this year, too, but so far the biggest names have been spared and the class ranks #1 in the country after SEC-mate LSU suffered some losses. There may or may not be a Julio Jones in this class but running back Trent Richardson is nearly as highly-touted. If Saban keeps this up—and is doing so cleanly so the school doesn't have to give up any wins from the current era—he'll have the team riding high in the rankings for years to come.

2009 Season Outlook  Alabama needed a good year after a disappointing and contentious 2007. Right from the start they got it: a neutral-field whipping of highly-rated Clemson in Atlanta. Several weeks later they faced pre-season #1 Georgia on the road and beat them down so far in the first half that even a 30 point 2nd half couldn't bring them back. After that, though, the offense lay dormant a lot of the time and the defense sealed wins over Kentucky (17-14), Mississippi (24-20), and LSU (27-21 in overtime). For the boosters a 36-0 crushing of Auburn was the sweetest moment and capped a perfect 12-0 slate. They put up a good fight against Florida in the SEC title game but lost 31-20. In the Sugar Bowl they didn't fight as hard and were dominated 31-17 without Andre Smith in the O-line.

Alabama 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Virginia Tech	62%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Florida International	86%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	North Texas	100%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	74%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Kentucky	74%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Mississippi	47%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	77%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	76%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	65%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	82%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Tennessee-Chattanooga	100%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Auburn	65%	W
Favored: 11-1   Projected: 9-3

The Crimson Tide have one main competitor in the SEC West: Mississippi. The teams are roughly even this year, but when they face off it will be in Oxford, not Tuscaloosa, and that makes all the difference. The rest of the schedule is no problem. Seven home games and just four true road games, plus two absolute 'gimmes' in Sun Belt slug North Texas and I-AA chump Chattanooga (2-9 last year) make for an 11-1 season being likely for a team this good. The opener in Atlanta against Virginia Tech is the next most likely loss (not very) and LSU and Auburn could put up a fight. The cumulative projection suggests they might be upset a couple of times over the course of the season. But unless the O-line is a really big problem they won't dip below 10-2 and I think 11-1 is a fair bet.

I wouldn't bet on going undefeated again, though. Even if they get past Mississippi which they could, the SEC has too much talent. Likely some other team would get them, somewhere. Bottom line, it looks like I'm giving Alabama a 47% chance of reaching the SEC championship game for a second straight year, which would inevitably be a rematch with Florida. Thus I don't see realistic national title aspirations for any SEC West team. Anything can happen, though, and facing UF would be one heck of an opportunity to move up in the polls...