2009 Pre-season Rankings - #46 to #50: Nebraska, Wisconsin, East Carolina, BYU, West Virginia

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #46 to #50. To see the full list, click here.

46. Nebraska Cornhuskers (Big Twelve #8; North #3)     Polls: AP #24, USA/Coaches: #22

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat Clemson 26-21 (Gator)   Poll finish: AP #29; USA #30
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #24    Success: #32    Overall: #26
Just when they were getting it back together the Cornhuskers have a rebuilding year of sorts.
Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #14   Adj. Rush Yards: #43    Adj. Pass Yards: #15
Joe Ganz threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2008, numbers that would have been inconceivable in Nebraska's heyday. But this is the new Nebraska, post-Solich and post-Callahan, and the quarterback actually throws the ball. Which is a problem this year as none of Ganz's potential successors have thrown more than a single pass in I-A ball. Zac Lee appears to have the job, but top receivers Nate Swift (10 TDs) and Todd Peterson have moved on; tight end Mike McNeill (442 yards, 6 TDs) is the top returning target. Gone at running back are Marlon Lucky, who began his senior year as a (2nd-tier) Heisman candidate and finished as the #2 rusher, and #3 rusher Quentin Castille who was kicked off the team in the summer, leaving Roy Helu (803 yards and 7 TDs) with little competition for carries. The offensive line is where most of the offense's returning starters reside, with three back from 2008: senior Jacob Hickman and juniors Keith Williams and Mike Smith.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #70    Adj. Rush Def: #58    Adj. Pass Def: #33
The defense allowed a lot of points compared to the yardage they gave up. The rushing defense was far from the "Blackshirts" ideal but they should improve with Ndamkong Suh (#1 tackler, 7.5 sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss, 2 int) and Pierre Allen (#3 tackler, 5 sacks) on the front four, with '07 starter Barry Turner back as well. Nebraska runs a 4-2-5 against pass-happy team (such as, most of the Big Twelve) and both starting linebackers are gone. The secondary in 5-man form loses just one starter, with safeties Larry Asante (#2 tackler) and Matt O'Hanlon (#4) back with corner Anthony West and nickel Eric Haag. Though the defense ranked a dismal 89th against the pass in raw yardage, when corrected for the type of teams they played the defense ranked a respectable 33rd. [Western Michigan, New Mexico State, Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Kansas State were all in the top 25 in passing yards, and five of them were in the top 10]. The weakness at linebacker won't make as much difference when in the nickel formation, and the front four looks good.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Alex Henery hit an outstanding 18 of 21 field goals last year, and with the departure of Dan Titchener (39.3 average) he may take over as punter, too.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #34
Bo Pelini's 2nd recruiting class is good, but not great in terms of national ranking. It places about 6th in the Big Twelve. If Nebraska is going to compete for national championships again—or at least Big Twelve conference championships—the recruiting is going to have to be consistently in the top 25. One important note, though: all of Pelini's signees for 2009 have qualified academically. The SEC has about ten teams with better recruiting this year than Nebraska, but their rankings keep falling as each recruit's transcript bites the dust. This year's recruit to watch is QB Cody Green, who could play backup this year, earn the starting spot, or redshirt. Speaking of redshirts, several linebackers from the 2008 class are helping fill the gaps at the position this season..

Nebraska 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	71%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Arkansas State	64%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Virginia Tech	37%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	66%	W
10/8	Thu	@	*Missouri	41%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	39%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	61%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Baylor	39%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	18%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Kansas	37%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	59%	W
11/27	Fri	@	*Colorado	51%	W
Favored: 6-6   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Ever since Nebraska really started to suck (a process that started under Solich and reached fruition under Callahan), each year the media buzz would be "are the Huskers back this year?" Early evidence usually suggested "Yes" until a certain point in the year when the answer became "No." That point is happening earlier and earlier each season as the college football world gets used to the idea of Nebraska just not being an important team.

So it was interesting that last year Nebraska managed to sneak up on people with a strong finish and their best year since Solich's last. The 'Huskers started 3-0 against outmanned competition, then lost at home to Virginia Tech, which was enough to make everyone quit paying attention. Two more losses followed, the only surprising thing being that Texas Tech needed overtime to beat them. But after that they started winning. Not over Oklahoma, of course, but everyone else they faced. Not that Iowa State and Baylor mattered, but when they beat Kansas that was a turning point. They were 6-4 and had actually beaten a team they were supposed to lose to. Two more wins and they went on to face Clemson in the Gator Bowl, which ended 26-21, a result I predicted right on the nose (mostly luck, I'll admit).

This year several publications are putting Nebraska in their pre-season top 25 and I'm not sure why. They don't return a lot of starters, and they weren't clearly a top 25 team last year. Lindy's has them #22, Athlon #16, and the pre-season coaches' poll #22. Maybe people figure that they have momentum from last year, that Pelini is going to have them better in his 2nd year, or that the Big Twelve North is ripe for the picking? All of these may be true but my numbers have them backsliding this year. They still have Virginia Tech on the schedule—on the road, even—and while Missouri and Texas Tech lose a lot of key people, so do the 'Huskers. Baylor will be better, Kansas will be good, and Oklahoma nearly unbeatable. So I have the Cornhuskers 6-6 and not a good chance of picking up wins to make it better than that.

I'm in the distinct minority in picking Nebraska to have a worse season this year. Pelini says the team is going to improve this year—even more than they improved last year. If that's the case, then they'll probably be in the Big Twelve title game, and one step further toward the goal of rebuilding the program into the one everyone used to fear.

47. Wisconsin Badgers (Big Ten #7)      Polls: USA/Coaches #44

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Florida State 42-13 (Champs Sports)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #50    Success: #61    Overall: #53
Wisconsin needs solutions at offense and defense; a strong kicking game is their foundation.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #41   Adj. Rush Yards: #13    Adj. Pass Yards: #93
The Badgers need to establish a quarterback. Though Dustin Scherer is back, he was hardly overwhelming in '08 after taking over from Allan Evridge, throwing just 6 TD passes. Redshirt freshman Curt Phillips, a dual-threat type, is in the mix to win the starting job. Running back P.J. Hill had 1,161 yards and went pro early but wasn't drafted; his production declined mid-year as John Clay's (884 yards) improved. The Badger system always produces on the ground, though this year they lose three offensive line starters including Kraig Urbic who unlike Hill was drafted (ironic after Hill blamed the O-line for his difficulties last year). Tight end Garrett Graham was the team's leading receiver with 540 yards; he returns along with receivers David Gilreath and Isaac Anderson but lose another tight end, Travis Beckum, to the NFL as well. With a confusing QB situation and offensive line questions the Badger offense is a work in progress.
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #60    Adj. Rush Def: #19    Adj. Pass Def: #64
Wisconsin's rushing defense was stout last season but that could change. Just one starter—O'Brien Schofield—is back in the front four, and while #1 tackler Jaevery McFadden is back at linebacker they lose #2 DeAndre Levy (5 sacks) and #3 Jonathan Casillas. The secondary looks ready for a big improvement but there are some pitfalls. Three starters—Niles Brinkley, Jay Valai, and Chris Maragos—are back and the fourth slot is filled by Aaron Henry, who started the first 2 games last year before redshirting. Two who started in '07, seniors Aubrey Pleasant and Shane Carter, are backups but both are suspended and might not play while another backup, part-time starter Mario Goins, left the program in the summer. Not too long ago it appeared that the secondary would make a quantum leap forward; now, it depends on Pleasant and Carter's status. Without them the group still looks good but it's a lot deeper with them.
Kicking Game (2 RS):  Punter Brad Norton is pretty good (41.8 average) and kicker Philip Welch is very good (20 of 24 FG). Both return for the Badgers. Both are sophomores so they should be set in the kicking game for the next few years. At least one area of the team is consistent!
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #48
Is Bret Bielema overseeing the decline of the Wisconsin football program that was built up by Barry Alvarez? It may just be random fluctuations but he's gone from 11 regular season wins to 9 to 7 and each team looks less prepared. If they take the next step and finish 5-7 this season he'll be on the hot seat next year. His recruiting classes the last two years have been right in the middle of the Big Ten. The consensus standouts this class are receiver Kraig Appleton and defensive tackle Jordan Kohout.

Wisconsin 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Northern Illinois	68%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	62%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Wofford	65%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	43%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*Minnesota	42%	L
10/10	Sat	@	*Ohio State	36%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	40%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Purdue	56%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Indiana	63%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	56%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Northwestern	48%	L
12/5	Sat	@	Hawaii	68%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  While some were putting Wisconsin in the top 10 pre-season (they were #13 in the AP, #12 coaches), SportsRatings noted that the previous year's 9-4 team was vastly overrated and the 2008 team would be worse. We put them #31 and even that turned out to be too optimistic, though we got their 7-5 record correct.

After three wins including a 13-10 victory over ranked Fresno State the Badgers were in the top 10. They then suffered four straight losses including a 48-7 drubbing by Penn State. By then the Fresno State win looked less impressive and a loss to Michigan even worse. But they regrouped and won four of their last five, still needing overtime to beat Cal Poly. They faced FSU in their bowl game and were drubbed 42-13.

Though the Badgers have lost a couple wins each year lately they shoudn't fall to 5-7 in 2009. In fact it almost looks like a repeat of last season. With only five road games the Badgers can start 3-0 pretty easily, with Wofford actually being more of a challenge than Northern Illinois. The first four Big Ten games could all be losses as they face their tougher opponents early; they should win four out of their last five games and the fifth, at Northwestern, is a close one. Last year our projection for the team was right on target, only missing the Fresno State win and the Iowa loss. Though the cumulative projection doesn't quite give them the 7th win I think 7-5 is how things will work out. When the offense is more settled and front seven on defense more experienced at the end of the season they might be able to pick off Northwestern for 8-4. Either way it looks like another bowl season, somewhere in Florida since that's where Wisconsin always ends up.

48. East Carolina Pirates (Conference USA #3; East #2)    Polls: AP #36, USA/Coaches #49

2008 Results:    Record: 9-5   Bowl: Lost to Kentucky 25-19 (Liberty)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #65    Success: #38    Overall: #61
The Pirates want to repeat as CUSA champions, and have the talent back to do it.
Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #84   Adj. Rush Yards: #94    Adj. Pass Yards: #62
Patrick Pinkney returns to ECU as a sixth year senior after throwing for 2,675 yards and 13 TDs last season. Pinkney and the offense as a whole were inconsisten in '08, something that should be helped by a veteran offensive line that returns all five starters--four seniors and one junior. At running back starter Brandon Simmons (7 TDs) departs but the #1 and #3 rushers, Norman Whitley and Jonathan Williams, are back. It's been a while since the running back situation at ECU was clear cut, and since both were suspended for spring neither might be the starter this year in favor of transfer Brandon Jackson. Meanwhile, fullback Kevin Gidrey moved to tight end. At receiver last year's top dog, tight end Davon Drew, departed but everyone else returns including Dwayne Harris who was a close 2nd in yardage with 654 and James Bryant who was suspended last October. In all the offense just needs more consistency—from Pinkney, the tailbacks, and the receivers—and hopefully a solid O-line will help keep everyone healthy and productive.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #39    Adj. Rush Def: #38    Adj. Pass Def: #32
The defense was the key to most of the Pirates' wins last year and should be up to the task again even if the offense needs less help. The front four returns three starters, seniors Jay Ross (5 sacks) and C.J. Wilson (10.5) along with junior Linval Joseph, while end Scotty Robinson started half of 2007. With that much experience back the Pirates could have a top 25 level rushing defense in 2009. At linebacker there are three seniors as well. Returning starters Nick Johnson (#1 tackler last season, 9 tackles for loss) and Jeremy Chambliss are joined by Chris Mattocks who replaces #2 tackler Pierre Bell. The secondary features just one senior, returning starter Van Eskridge (4 int) at free safety but junior Dekota Marshall is back at corner and Travis Simmons started 4 games at the other corner as well. Overall the defense looks very sound, as they were solid last year and have a lot of talent returning to cover their losses.
Kicking Game (1.5 RS): Punter Matt Dodge averaged 43.9 yards per punt last year (37.9 net) and returns. Also back is kicker Ben Hartman who was just 21 of 31 in field goals; he can kick them long (he made two 50+ yarders in his career) and has been dependable when the game is on the line but was just 5 of 12 outside the 40. Note: Hartman's status is unknown due to a hip injury. If he doesn't play then Ben Ryan or Dodge will likely take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #98
Coach Skip Holtz has his team believing. Going into his fifth year the team has seen their work and his philosophies pay off with big upsets and a CUSA championship, and Holtz was wooed by Syracuse but stayed put. His last few recruiting classes have ranked low for the conference, however. This year running back DaMonte Terry, an in-state recruit, is the most promising and could add his name into the hat at running back if they end up shorthanded this year. 

East Carolina 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Appalachian State	60%	W
9/12	Sat	@	West Virginia	47%	L
9/19	Sat	@	North Carolina	33%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Central Florida	63%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Marshall	54%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Southern Methodist	64%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Rice	60%	W
10/27	Tue	@	*Memphis	59%	W
11/5	Thu	vs.	Virginia Tech	43%	L
11/15	Sun	@	*Tulsa	44%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*UAB	69%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	52%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  ECU kicked off the season with two big upsets, beating Virginia Tech on a blocked punt and humbling highly-touted West Virginia the very next week 24-3. It may have been too much too soon as everyone was talking about the Pirates; they barely escaped with a win at Tulane and then lost in overtime to North Carolina State. Two more losses followed and the team was just 3-3 after such a promising start.

The next three games proved crucial. They beat Memphis then won two consecutive overtime games, UCF 13-10 and Marshall 19-16. After a loss to Southern Miss they again won three straight including the CUSA championship game over Tulsa 27-24, where the defense did an incredible job against a team averaging nearly 50 points a game. They lost to Kentucky 25-19 in a screwball Liberty Bowl as they were plagued by turnovers. Still, the season was a success.

This year the Pirates are stronger but might not win all the close games they did last year; 2008 could have been a 3-9 year worst case. Still, they should match last year's regular-season win total at 8-4. The opener vs. Appalachian State is a trap, of course—the Mountaineers still have Armanti Edwards and they'll be one of the best FCS teams again this coming season. But the Pirates should prevail. The other Mountaineers, West Virginia, will probably get revenge at home but ECU has a chance there, too. North Carolina on the road looks tough, too. But then the Pirates have five winnable games in a row, before facing Virginia Tech at home and Tulsa on the road and closing with UAB and Southern Miss. It should come down to the Tulsa and Southern Miss games as to whether ECU wins the East division. The cumulative projection is torn between 7-5 and 6-6, but with the talent this team has back 8-4 might be a low estimate.

49. Brigham Young Cougars (Mountain West #3)         Polls: AP #20, USA/Coaches #24

2008 Results: Record: 10-3 Bowl: L to Arizona 31-21 (Las Vegas Bowl) Poll finish: AP #25; USA #21
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #27    Success: #41    Overall: #31
The Cougars may face a near-rebuilding year in 2008 but should still finish high in the Mountain West.
Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #24   Adj. Rush Yards: #73    Adj. Pass Yards: #6
BYU returns just four starters, but they're all excellent players which gives them hope that the offense can build around them: quarterback Max Hall is one of the best in the NCAA, finishing just shy of 4,000 yards with 35 TD passes and a 69% completion rate; tight end Dennis Pitta had over 1,000 receiving yards and 6 TD catches; Harvey Unga ran for 1,132 yards and 11 TDs; and tackle Matt Reynolds started all year as a freshman allowing just one sack. But the losses will hurt. Four starters who had a total of 12 years of starting experience are gone from the O-line, and likely new starter Jason Speredon is lost for the year with a shoulder injury. Another huge hit is the NFL departure of Austin Collie who caught 106 passes for 1,538 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. While Hall still has the dependable Pitta, the loss of Collie and the majority of the O-line will make this year a challenge.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #56    Adj. Rush Def: #55    Adj. Pass Def: #94
The defense was looking great until two more starters were lost after spring; then one announced his return, leaving the already-fair-enough rushing defense stronger but the porous pass defense worse. THe defensive line becomes a major strength with all three starters back. Russell Tialavea decided to go on his mission *after* the season, joining seniors Brett Denney and Jan Jorgensen. The linebacking corps is  solid, too, returning Matt Bauman (#1 tackler), Coleby Clawson (4 sacks), and Shawn Doman. The weak secondary was already looking questionable before corner Brandon Howard left the team; now senior free safety Scott Johnson is the only returning starter and once again the team looks vulnerable to the pass.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter C.J. Santiago (41.8 average) departs and sophomore Tyler Holt will take over while kicker Mitch Payne is back after hitting 10 of 14 field goals in '08.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #46
BYU finished at the top of the Mountain West again in terms of recruiting. With consensus blue chips in defensive back Craig Bills and linebacker Kyle Van Noy, head coach Bronco Mendenhall continues to bring in good new talent. Tight end Richard Wilson and running back Adam Hine are also highly-touted. But one of 2008's top recruits, DB Bernard Afutiti, is academically ineligible for the 2nd straight year, further underscoring the secondary's woes.

BYU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Oklahoma	10%	L
9/12	Sat	@	Tulane	69%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Florida State	42%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	66%	W
10/2	Fri	vs.	Utah State	66%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*UNLV	58%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*San Diego State	68%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*TCU	40%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Wyoming	65%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*New Mexico	60%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	60%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Utah	46%	L
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  BYU kicked off 2008 with a strong win over I-AA power Northern Iowa, then nearly lost on the road to Washington who finished 0-12. At the time the Huskies didn't look that bad, so when the Cougars blanked UCLA 59-0 and Wyoming 44-0 BYU looked like the BCS buster many pundits predicted.

But the dirty secret was that BYU didn't play well way from home. This was revealed strikingly in a 32-7 loss at TCU which rattled the team. After all, they were supposed to go to a BCS bowl that year, right? They staggered through a few more wins before being crushed 48-24 at Utah. Once again they went to the Las Vegas bowl—certainly a disappointment compared to their aspirations. It showed, in a 31-21 loss to Arizona.

This year the expectations are not quite so sky-high. Playing Oklahoma in the opener and FSU on week three don't help matters. Other losses foreseen are, once again, TCU and Utah. But three of those four losses are home games, and BYU has shown to be extra-strong at home, giving them a chance in any of them. With the offensive line completely rebuilt a Mountain West title looks like a long shot, though, and if Hall struggles because of it the cumulative projection (just short of 6.5 wins) could be a reality. But more likely the Cougars gain strength as their O-line gains experience, and by the time of the Utah game they might be strong enough to beat the Utes. In any case they should be bowl-bound again, whether it's another year in Las Vegas or not.

50. West Virginia Mountaineers (Big East #4)     Polls: AP #32, USA/Coaches #31

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat UNC 31-30 (Car Care)   Poll finish: AP #23; USA #26
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #38    Success: #27    Overall: #38
The Pat White era at WVU is over.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #63   Adj. Rush Yards: # 7    Adj. Pass Yards: #107
For four years Patrick White led the Mountaineer offense and to a bowl game win each time. Always an efficient passes, even in a somewhat disappointing senior campaign he still completed 66% of his attempts for nearly 2,000 yards and 21 TDs vs. 7 interceptions. On the ground of course he excelled and had nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TDs in 2008, ending as the all-time NCAA QB rushing leader. So it's not hard to imagine that the offense is in for a big adjustment with him gone. Senior Jarrett Brown has watched him do it for years and is ready to take over, though his style is different as he outweighs White by 50 pounds. The two top receivers are back: Alric Arnett (#1 in yards at 466, 6 TDs) and Jock Sanders (#1 in catches with 53, 7 TDs) who was suspended in spring but cleared to play. Despite Bill Stewart's intention—logical, given White's efficiency—to pass more, the run still rules in Morgantown, and Noel Devine is back to enforce that law after racking up 1,289 yards (6.3 average) in '08. The offensive line returns only one full-time starter, Selvish Capers at right tackle, while half-time starter Eric Jobe returns at center. Helping block are fullback Will Johnson and tight end Tyler Urban, both part-time starters last year. The pieces are there but the transition may be rough, especially with such a green O-line.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #20    Adj. Rush Def: #37    Adj. Pass Def: #55
The defense ended up doing a pretty good job last year, especially in preventing scoring. Chris Neild and Scooter Berry are back in the solid front three. The losses are significant at linebacker—#1 and #2 tacklers Mortty Ivy (3 int) and Quinton Andrews, but J.T. Thomas returns and between half-time starter Anthony Leonard and 2007 starter Reed Williams things are covered pretty well. The secondary could have been a disaster last year but didn't turn out that bad. This year with Brandon Hogan, Sidney Glover, and Robert Sands all one year wiser they might really have a strong unit. Though the top three tacklers are gone from last season's defense the next nine return and a year after exceeding expectations they should be even better.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Mountaineers must replace Pat McAfee at both punter (44.7 average, 40.5 net) and kicker (17 of 20 field goals, all 36 PATs). He may be the 2nd most significant loss to the program, and certainly the 2nd most important "Pat" gone from the team. Senior Scott Kozlowski look like the new punter, while at kicker it will be either freshman Tyler Bitancurt or senior Josh Lider, who transferred from Division II Western Washington after the school dropped its football program last year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #21
Bill Stewart's 2nd recruiting class is even better than his first, and the first time in years that they beat Pitt as the top team in the Big East recruiting-wise. Among the best this year is Eugene (Geno) Smith who is expected to take over as QB next year; he broke his foot in the summer and may redshirt. Other blue chips include RB Tavon Austin, wide receivers Logan Heastie and Deon Long, and defensive end Tevita Finau.

West Virginia 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Liberty	74%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	East Carolina	53%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Auburn	43%	L
10/1	Thu	vs.	Colorado	56%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Syracuse	62%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	Marshall	60%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Connecticut	57%	W
10/30	Fri	@	*South Florida	44%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	62%	W
11/13	Fri	@	*Cincinnati	49%	L
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Pittsburgh	47%	L
12/5	Sat	@	*Rutgers	39%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Highly-rated in the pre-season, last year got off to a rocky start as the team looked listless against I-AA Villanova and were humbled in game two against East Carolina 24-3. The unexpected offensive woes continued as they lost at Colorado 17-14 in overtime.

Five straight wins helped right the ship but none was that impressive; even beating Auburn wasn't worth much last year, but a 35-13 win over UConn put them in control of the Big East. But losses to Cincinnati (overtime) and Pitt (2nd year in a row) spoiled their BCS dreams for good. A great bowl game win over North Carolina capped a decent year but it was far from what was hoped for.

As hard as life after Steve Slaton was, life after Pat White could be even more difficult, at least for the time being. The first half of the season is friendly enough, with home rematches of East Carolina and Colorado, a road game at Syracuse, and Marshall and UConn in Morgantown. The trip to much-improved Auburn might be their only trip-up and a 6-1 start is possible, even likely. Then come the tough games, and the close games that will determine how successful the year looks from a December vantage point. Cincy on the road and Pitt at home could be close losses, and the Mountaineers could finish 1-4 for a 7-5 tally. The cumulative projection doesn't even quite put them there, leaving the record even at 6-6.

It's a tough call given the offensive line's losses and a whole new look on offense. But one things that should give fans hope is that the offense will be at its worst during the easy half of the season, and may have hit its groove but the time the tough games roll around. While this means they might drop the East Carolina game, they could pick up two or three more wins in the 2nd half and go 8-4 or even 9-3. I think 7-5 is still the most realistic finish, then 8-4, but either way they'll be in a bowl somewhere which won't be the same without White in uniform but you have to move on.