2009 Pre-season Rankings - #41 to #45: Auburn, Tulsa, Southern Miss, Arkansas, South Florida

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #41 to #46. To see the full list, click here.

41. Auburn Tigers (SEC #7; West #4)     Polls: AP #44, USA/Coaches: #39

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #63    Success: #71    Overall: #65
With Tommy Tuberville gone the Tigers move on under Gene Chizik.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #104   Adj. Rush Yards: #65    Adj. Pass Yards: #97
Before the 2007 season's bowl game Tuberville tried to jump-start Auburn's lackidaisical offense by hiring Tony Franklin away from Troy to implement a spread offense. Over the 2008 season the two butted heads on how far to take it and it never worked out; the experiment failed with Auburn finishing in the bottom 20 in scoring offense. Now Chizik will try the same with Gus Malzahn from Tulsa, a team that had top 10 rushing and passing games in 2008. One of last year's starting QBs, Kodi Burns, will move to wide receiver and also handle the "Wildcat" snaps while the other, Chris Todd, is the starter. Neither did very well last year but Burns can run so this configuration might be for the best. The receivers last year didn't do much but Montez Billings returns along with tight end Tommy Trott and with Burns in the group should be better. (Note: Billings and WR Tim Hawthorne will miss the first four games of the season). The ground game wasn't much better than the passing game but Ben Tate managed 664 yards. The offensive line returns three starters: Ryan Pugh and Lee Ziemba, with Mike Berry and Byron Issum having shared right guard last year. Another year having to learn a new system can't be good, but on the other hand the offense can't get worse. They do have talent.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #13    Adj. Rush Def: #40    Adj. Pass Def: #30
The defense kept last year from becoming a Notre Dame/Michigan style 3-9 meltdown. In scoring defense Auburn was still among the best in the country despite giving up an uncharacteristic amount of yardage on the ground. The defensive line returns Michael Goggans and Antonio Coleman (6 sacks) at the ends but loses NFL pick Sen'Derrrick Marks at tackle. At linebacker they have Craig Stevens and Josh Bynes returning, and the secondary boast the return of the team's two top tacklers Zac Etheridge and Mike McNeil (note: he will be out the first half of the year) with corner Walter McFadden back as well, though likely starter Aaron Savage will miss his 2nd straight season with injury. Overall the defense looks strong and should improve with Chizik and coordinator Ted Roof's oversight.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Both punter Clinton Durst (42.1 yard average) and kicker Wes Byrum (11 of 19 FG) are back. Byrum struggled last year after his strong freshman season.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #26
Gene Chizik was a controversial hire as head coach to say the least. But despite his poor two-year record at Iowa State (5-19) he has a great track record as a defensive coordinator, holding the job during Auburn's 2004 13-0 season and Texas' 2005 13-0 campaign. The first one was the key, though: he's Auburn's guy, and that's why they hired him. They knew him. So far he's made some good moves in hiring assistants, such as Malzahn and Roof (who worked a miracle last season with Minnesota's defense). And in terms of recruiting so far Chizik is doing very well, with his first class on the cusp of the top 25 and better than Tuberville's '08 class when you subtract all the non-qualifiers. That's been an issue the last few years: at least a dozen of Tuberville's 2008 recruits never played for the team (including 5-star DE Raven Gray) and already six of Chiziks did not qualify, while Brandon Jacobs signed a baseball contract. So far the best recruits, such as defensive back Demond Washington and linebacker Eltoro Freeman, are safe but several good one such as DB Taikwon Paige are gone. Running back Onterio McCalebb didn't qualify in 2008, went to Hargrave Academy and was re-recruited for 2009; so far his academics are ok and his speed is even better.

Auburn 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	64%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	67%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	West Virginia	53%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Ball State	59%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Tennessee	51%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Arkansas	46%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	63%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	39%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	35%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	Furman	77%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Georgia	40%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	35%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  The troubles with the new offense were recognized within the first two games but it took a 3-2 win over Mississippi State to make everyone realize it was even worse than they'd imagined. After a narrow loss to defending national champ LSU and a win (14-12) over Tennesse, the Tigers were still 4-1 despite the offensive woes. But they lost their next four games, scoring 22 points or fewer each outing. During this stretch Tuberville fired Franklin and after that the offense had even less focus. A win over I-AA Tennessee Martin was their last victory, and a 36-0 drubbing by Alabama was the last straw for Tuberville and he resigned.

This year should be better but it, too, has the chance of feeling very disappointing by the end. The Tigers should win their first four games and could win their first seven, but four of the last five are pretty certain defeats. The tossups are at Tennessee and at Arkansas; they might split those and be 6-1 in mid-October. A 7-5 finish won't feel very good after that.

Lose to both UT and Arkansas and the projections of 6-6 will come true, but I'll go with 7-5. I don't see them doing worse than last year, though they could match it if West Virginia beats them. They'll more than likely be back in a bowl game, which is a start, and things should continue to improve if the team can retain its top-notch recruits.

42. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Conference USA #1; West #1)     Polls: AP #50

2008 Results:    Record: 11-3   Bowl: Beat Ball State 45-13 (GMAC)   Poll finish: AP #30; USA #27
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #23    Success: #29    Overall: #24
The Golden Hurricane won't resemble their 2008 squad but might still have enough to contend for the conference title.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #7   Adj. Rush Yards: #8    Adj. Pass Yards: #9
Last season's offense was amazing, finishing in the top ten in adjusted scoring, rushing, and passing. The main reasons for those numbers—quarterback David Johnson (4,059 passing yards, 46 TDs), running back Tarrion Adams (1,523 yards, 14 TDs), and receiver Brennan Marion (1,112 rec. yards, 8 TDs) are all gone. If the Tulsa offense is indeed a "system" then their replacements should do well, too, though maybe not quite to the same extent. Jacob Bower will likely take over at QB; he saw very limited action last year. Jamad Williams rushed for 523 yards with an average similar to Adams' (both over 6.0 yards per carry). And at receiver Damaris Johnson (743 yards, 10 TDs) is back along with Slick Shelley (8 TDs), Trae Johnson (3), and starting fullback Charles Clay (9 TD catches, 2 rushing TDs). The bulk of the offensive line is gone but Tyler Holmes and Curt Puckett are back after starting all 14 games. This will undoubtedly no longer be a top-ten level offense, nor even top 25, but just how far it falls depends a lot on coaching; luckily the Hurricane had two co-offensive coordinators, Herb Hand and Gus Malzahn, minimizing the loss of Malzahn to Auburn.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #86    Adj. Rush Def: #79    Adj. Pass Def: #75
The defense wasn't that great in 2008 and didn't need to be most of the time. That will change as every game will depend on them this year. The defensive front three returns Wilson Garrison but loses two including Moton Hopkins (12 total tackles for loss). All three of the pure linebacker slots in the Tulsa 3-3-5 return starters: #1 tackler Mike Bryan (119 stops, 4 sacks), Tanner Antle, and George Clinkscale. Senior James Lockett (#2 tackler) returns to staff the "Spur" (safety/LB) position and free safety Charles Davis and corner Kenny Sims (8 pass break-ups) return to the secondary as well. With three other part-time starters the secondary should be much better. In all 8 of the top 10 tacklers return and 14 of the top 17. Will the improvement in the defense offset the losses on offense? Probably not, but Tulsa shouldn't have to rely on scoring 40 points to win, either.
Kicking Game (1 RS):  Michael Such returns at punter (43.0 average) after sharing the job with QB Johnson last year. Jarod Tracy hit 10 of 13 field goals last year, and this year Kevin Fitzpatrick or Matt Hulse will take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #56
Todd Graham is in his third year at Tulsa and has continued the success that Steve Kragthorpe built. His recruiting class this year is perhaps somewhat better than last year's, and ranks near the top of the conference. The top prospect in the class is quarterback Shavodrick Beaver from Wichita Falls, Texas, who was in for the spring to try to compete for the starting job this season.

Tulsa 2009 schedule & forecast
9/4	Fri	@	*Tulane	71%	W
9/12	Sat	@	New Mexico	61%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Oklahoma	12%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Sam Houston State	80%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Rice	55%	W
10/14	Wed	vs.	Boise State	43%	L
10/21	Wed	@	*UTEP	54%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Southern Methodist	73%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Houston	57%	W
11/15	Sun	vs.	*East Carolina	55%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	47%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	68%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  In last season's preview SportsRatings picked Tulsa in every game except the Arkansas game, and it almost happened. In their first five wins the Golden Hurricane scored 45, 56, 56, 62, and 63 points. Held to 37 in a win at SMU, they roared back to pile 77 on UTEP and 49 on Central Florida. Then came the Arkansas game, which looked more favorable than it had pre-season with the Razorbacks looking pathetic. But playing at home they beat Tulsa 30-23. The disappointment carried over to next week when the Hurricane got a taste of their own medicine, losing 70-30 at Houston. They beat Tulane and edged Marshall to meet East Carolina in the CUSA championship game but lost 27-24. They saved their best performance for last, destroying Ball State 45-13, the one game where the defense looked the equal of the offense.

The non-conference schedule this year is quite something, including a road game against Oklahoma and Boise State at home. Both are probable losses, the Sooners game almost certain, but there is only one other likely loss on the schedule. Though there are some close conference games that cut the projected wins down to 7, they should be favored every CUSA game except at Southern Miss. All of this is conditional on the offense being somewhat competent. If it's not, then they could fall below bowl eligibility. But if the offense takes hold early and the defense shows big improvements they could give Boise State a run for their money. Being realistic, the offense is going to need some time to develop so the 7-5 cumulative projection is probably the most likely outcome. Still, given the personnel they had to replace that shouldn't be too disappointing.

43. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Conference USA #2; East #1)    Polls: AP #45, USA #47

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Beat Troy 30-27ot (New Orleans Bowl)  Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #60    Success: #63    Overall: #62
The Golden Eagles take a shot at the C-USA title.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #40   Adj. Rush Yards: #32    Adj. Pass Yards: #36
Who's back on offense? Lots of folks: the quarterback, the running back, two and a half starting receivers and three and a half starting offensive linemen. Who's gone? That's easier. Tight end Shawn Nelson (the #2 receiver) and Ed Morgan (#6 receiver, half-time starter). On the O-line, 3-year starter Ryan McKee and two part-time starters including Calvin Wilson who left the program in the summer. Ok, back to the returnees: QB Austin Davis threw for over 3,000 yards and 23 TDs and rushed for 508 more and 9 TDs. RB Damion Fletcher rushed for 1,313 yards and 10 TDs. At receiver DeAndre Brown had 1,117 receiving yards and 12 TDs; Gerald Baptiste was the #3 receiver and Freddie Parham the #5 (Fletcher was 4th). Brown has a foot injury but is expected to be better by kickoff day. The offense is pretty much loaded for bear with few if any weak points.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #74    Adj. Rush Def: #75    Adj. Pass Def: #73
The defense is as reloaded as the offense but wasn't nearly as effective last season. But improvement should follow with eight starters back. Give the front four credit for 3.5 starters back; Eric Phillips is gone but full-time starter Roshaad Byrd returns with Deddrick Jones, Anthony Gray (6 sacks), and Rolando Barragan, all of whom started half-time or more. At linebacker the top two tacklers from last season—Gerald McRath (137) and Tokumbo Abanikanda (84) are gone but Martez Smith returns. Like the D-line the secondary also returns nearly intact, missing only one part-time starter and returning C.J. Bailey, Eddie Hicks (4 int) and Chico Hunter along with half-time starter Andre Watson (3 int). Though the loss of the two top tacklers hurts all the bases are covered for improvement in this defense in terms of stopping the run and the pass.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Kicker/punter Britt Barefoot is gone after averaging 40.6 yards per punt and hitting 9 of 15 field goals. Justin Estes, who kicked in 2007 and hit 4 of 7 in '08, should take over as kicker unless sophomore Daniel Hrapmann ends up with the job. Backup QB and redshirt frosh Bret Jefcoat was expected to take over as punter but he transferred. This may leave the punting job to quarterback Davis, turning every 4th down into a very real fake threat. An interesting idea, though one of the other kickers will probably step into the role instead.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #40
Southern Miss football has been winning consistently for well over a decade. Head coach Larry Fedora wants to take it to the next level. In his 2nd year the recruiting class again tops the CUSA. Though this year's class has no blue chip to compare to DeAndre Brown from last year, receiver Justin Jordan, RB Kendrick Hardy, and defensive lineman Kyrhi Thornton (originally committed to South Florida) are all borderline blue chip prospects. Fedora's recruiting and coaching is already paying dividends.

Southern Miss 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Alcorn State	100%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	*Central Florida	64%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Virginia	58%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Kansas	38%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*UAB	64%	W
10/10	Sat	@	Louisville	58%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	67%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	78%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Houston	50%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Marshall	56%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Tulsa	53%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*East Carolina	47%	L
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Last season was a 2-6 disaster than finished a very hopeful 7-6.

Wins over UL-Lafayette and Arkansas State didn't offset the disappointment of losses to Marshall, UTEP, Rice, and Memphis by a total of 21 points. But those close losses, and holding Auburn to 27 and Boise State to 24, pointed to a team that was much better than its lousy record. The Eagles exploded for 70 points against UAB, then beat Central Florida and East Carolina with defense, then beat SMU to even their slate. Their last four opponents scored an average of just under 9 points. The bowl game against Troy looked like an absolute tossup. SportsRatings predicted Troy 33-30 in overtime, but Southern Miss won 30-27 in overtime.

The Eagles know the first rule of scheduling a Division I-AA team: make it such a cakewalk that you can't go wrong. Instead of taking on a playoff-level team they went with Alcorn State, who went 2-10 last year. They can get away with it, too; they're a local opponent. Anyway after this gimme they have UCF and Virginia at home. Kansas on the road is their toughest game of the season. Then they have the meat of the CUSA schedule and every game is winnable. I have one loss at East Carolina and a tossup at Houston. Though the cumulative total is just 7-5, I think that should be treated as a lower end for sure. The Eagles have a slight chance at an undefeated season, though with the CUSA title game added in I don't think that can happen. Still, one can dream, and this could really be a dream season for Southern Miss if things go their way.

44. Arkansas Razorbacks (SEC #8; West #5)     Polls: AP #50, USA/Coaches #44

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #68    Success: #55    Overall: #67
The improved Razorbacks navigate the difficult SEC West.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #56   Adj. Rush Yards: #66    Adj. Pass Yards: #23
Much-maligned Casey Dick went out on a high note, leading a comeback win over LSU on a 4th down TD pass. Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett is expected to step in an lead a renewed passing attack. He's leaner, having lost 25 pounds in the last year, and has all last year's top receivers back including tight end D.J. Williams (723 yards). But the ground game is what the Razorbacks have been famous for recently, and after a period of adjusting the offense to not having Darren McFadden it got rolling again with Michael Smith (1,072 yards, 8 TDs). Incoming USC transfer Broderick Green is eligible and will add to the attack, so don't think Arkansas is going exclusively pass-happy. The offensive line returns three starters and gets Mitch Petrus back from 2007 so they should greatly reduce last year's whopping 46 allowed sacks.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #76    Adj. Rush Def: #76    Adj. Pass Def: #56
The defense should improve vastly in 2009, especially against the run. All four starters return to the defensive line including tackle Malcolm Sheppard, who was 2nd on the team in tackles with 8 of them for loss plus 6.5 quarterback sacks. Top tackler Jerry Franklin returns at linebacker with half-time starters Freddy Burton and Wendel Davis, both of whom finished among the top six tacklers. The secondary was very well-stocked, too, before Isaac Madison tore his ACL this fall camp. Still, Elton Ford is back at safety after being injured late last season and half-time starters Ramon Broadway and Jerico Nelson cover the other corner and safety spot. Ford is doing well but may play behind Matt Harris who took over for him last year and finished 4th on the team in tackles. Even with Madison gone the team's top 10 tacklers return and this side of the ball has great potential.
Kicking Game (1 RS): After a great freshman year Alex Tejada lost his kicking job in '08 then regained it, finishing 4 of 9 on field goals. He's back but punter Jeremy Davis (43.2 yard average) isn't and junior Britton Forester is set to take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #12
Bobby Petrino had the thankless task of taking over Arkansas after losing McFadden and Felix Jones, with much of the rest of the team depleted. Implementing a new system on offense further complicated matters and the Razorbacks struggled mightily early on. Over the season, though, improvement was clearly on display. Also improved was Petrino's 2nd signing class. So far the non-qualifiers have been some of the lesser names, so it may stay near the top ten in quality. The big catch is 5-star cornerback Darius Winston, and there are many more consensus 4-stars in the class including running backs Knile Davis and Ronnie Wingo. Even if just based on last year's in-season improvement and the quality of recruiting Petrino will have Arkansas back in no time.

Arkansas 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Missouri State	89%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	45%	L
9/26	Sat	@	*Alabama	26%	L
10/3	Sat	N	Texas A&M	56%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	52%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Florida	0%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Mississippi	26%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	Eastern Michigan	71%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	57%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	Troy	56%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	69%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	37%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  2008 started off with a thud. Expectations weren't high after the loss of their superstar running back(s) but they weren't supposed to barely beat I-AA Western Illinois (28-24) and Louisiana-Monroe (28-27). This set the stage for blowout losses to Alabama, Texas, and Florida which showed the Razorbacks where they were in the national pecking order. They got a narrow win at Auburn that would have been significant any other year, but lost tight games to Kentucky and Mississippi and stood a dismal 3-5. They managed to beat undefeated Tulsa, and kept two more losses close and it was clear that they were at least being competitive; the running game had started to come together. Everything finally paid off in their season-ending upset of LSU. They were a lot better than they were at the start of the season, and with all the close losses could have been 8-4...or 0-12 if you take away the narrow victories.

This year the Razorbacks should return to winning, or at least become bowl eligible, with four non-conference games that they can win (though two might be a challenge) and three conference wins. They could surprise Georgia early at home but I wouldn't count on it, and while the LSU game could be close I think the Tigers will get revenge at home. Auburn is improved but they get them at home. With the Florida road game scratched from the realm of possibility the cumulative projection gives them a 6-6 slate but I think 7-5 will happen as the team will improve on both sides of the ball.

45. South Florida Bulls (Big East #3)      Polls: AP #45, USA/Coaches #40

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Memphis 41-14 (St. Petersburg Bowl)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #41    Success: #48    Overall: #43
The Bulls aren't as good this year but that shouldn't matter in a weaker, parity-laden Big East.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #57   Adj. Rush Yards: #37    Adj. Pass Yards: #40
Matt Grothe had another one of those years. Nearly 3,000 yards passing, over 500 yards rushing, with 18 TD passes and his typical 14 interceptions. Of his fragmented receiving corps he loses #2 Taurus Johnson (6 TDs) but returns top WR Jessie Hester (579 yards) and Carlton Mitchell, A.J. Love, and Dontavia Bogan, who are #3 to #5. The running game return #2 rusher (Grothe was #1) Mike Ford, #3 Moise Plancher, and #5 Jamar Taylor (though Ford and Taylor will both miss part of the early season). So far, we have Grothe and an adequate if not electric supporting cast. But the offensive line is a big concern as four starters are lost. Jacob Sims started most games last year and Zach Herman was about half-time last year after being full-time in 2007. The good news—for 2010—is that none of the O-line's starters are seniors.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #34    Adj. Rush Def: #10    Adj. Pass Def: #53
The defense did its part last year, especially against the run. That's due in a large part to tackle George Selvie, who had 5.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, and 5 pass breakups all while being the focus of the opposing offensive line after his all-American year in 2007. Also back on the defensive line are Aaron Harris and Terrell McClain. With three starters back and a healthy Selvie in his senior year the rushing defense and pass rush should be even better. At linebacker Kion Wilson returns but they lose two starters including #1 tackler Tyrone McKenzie (13.5 tackles for loss, 8 passes broken up). The secondary did an adequate job considering teams couldn't run very well against the Bulls, thus making the pass a better option. Safety Nate Allen and corner Jerome Murphy are back to form the core of the unit. Overall on the defense nine of the top 14 tacklers return but the strength is definitely up front; get past the D-line and you might get somewhere.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Delbert Alvarado (39.7 average) returns to punt again for the Bulls and will likely take over as placekicker. Maikon Bonani (15 of 21 FG last year) was set to return, too, but an injury he suffered due to a freak accident at a theme park has him sidelined for the year. Alvarado was placekicker in 2007 before Bonani won the job early last year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #25
Jim Leavitt has been building this program from nothing for a dozen years and he wants to see it get over the hump and win a Big East title. This year's recruiting class is a step in the right direction. It includes two excellent defensive linemen in JUCO Jason Pierre-Paul and freshman Ryne Giddins. One recruit, Carlos Savala, was expected to help on the offensive line but did not qualify academically.

USF 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Wofford	65%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Western Kentucky	75%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	88%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Florida State	36%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*Syracuse	63%	W
10/15	Thu	vs.	*Cincinnati	58%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Pittsburgh	42%	L
10/30	Fri	vs.	*West Virginia	56%	W
11/12	Thu	@	*Rutgers	41%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Louisville	64%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Miami (Florida)	47%	L
12/5	Sat	@	*Connecticut	53%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  USF had another season where they rose high in the polls due to a winning streak then had a disappointing latter part of the year. They were 5-0 after beating N.C. State and held a victory over Kansas when they lost to Pitt. Two weeks later they lost to Louisville, then Cincinnati, then Rutgers bombed them 49-16. They stemmed the flow with a win over UConn but finished just 2-5 in their final seven games. A bowl win over Memphis gave them eight wins but the 2nd straight slump has to hurt.

The Bulls know how to schedule early games, that's for sure. This time around two of their first three games are against I-AA (FCS) teams, and the other is Western Kentucky who officially joins I-A (FBS) just this year. They go on the road to FSU after that, but then have two of their easier Big East opponents, meaning they should be 5-1 again at mid-season.

This year's "slump" won't be as bad. They should go 3-3 after the mid-point, with a decent chance to beat Miami at home. But it's just as likely they go 7-5 again since their pattern is getting upset in the late season. Also, their offensive line is very green (though the easy early schedule will help get it acclimated). The Bulls look bowl-bound again, mainly because the Big East is the Big Easy this season, but there's still not a huge chance of that bowl being of the BCS variety.