The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers team #4. To see the full list, click here.
| 4. Southern Cal Trojans (Pac-10 #1) Polls: AP #4, USA/Coaches #4 |
2008 Results: Record: 12-1 Bowl: Beat Penn State 38-24 (Rose) Poll finish: AP #3, USA #2
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #3 Success: #4 Overall: #3
Which Rose Bowl will the Trojans be playing in—the one on January 1st or the one on January 7th?
Offense (9 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #9 Adj. Rush Yards: #25 Adj. Pass Yards: #18
All they need is a quarterback and they'd have the dominant offense they've been lacking for years. Ever since Leinart and Bush left after 2005 USC has been a defense-dominated team. Two years of John David Booty weren't as productive as hoped and even with Mark Sanchez occasionally looking like a pro QB (66% for 3,207 yards, 34 TDs, 10 int) the offense wasn't top-rate. But with all the talent back this year it could be—if they find the right guy at the helm. Sanchez chose not to return or he'd be in the thick of the Heisman race with Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy. Instead USC will go with a freshman, either true freshman Matt Barkley or redshirt frosh Aaron Corp, both of whom are capable—and beat out Arkansas transfer Mitch Mustain—but still it means the quarterback is going to be a freshman. Corp was #1 after the spring but recently hurt his knee and Barkley was coming on strong. Update: Barkley was named the starter in late August.
Apart from the quarterback slot everything is rosey. The Trojans lose #2 receiver Patrick Turner (10 TDs) but have a wealth of targets to choose from including #1 Damian Williams (869 yards, 9 TDs), Ronald Johnson (8 TDs), fullback Stanley Havili (3 TDs), and tight end Anthony McCoy. At running back for several years (since the Bush/White days) they've had a committee approach and that continues with the main three members returning, Stafon Johnson (705 yards, 9 TDs), Joe McKnight (659 yards, 2 TDs), and starter C.J. Gable (617 yards, 8 TDs). Any one of the three might end up the leading rusher, and all three going over 1,000 yards is within the realm of possibility due to the strength on the offensive line. The Trojans return all five starters (three seniors, two juniors) and backups from last year. If the freshman quarterback can't take the heat, all that new offensive coordinator John Morton needs to do is call running plays all day. But since he was the quarterbacks coach before moving up, he'll probably want to keep a balanced attack.
Defense (3 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #1 Adj. Rush Def: #6 Adj. Pass Def: #1
The dominant defense of the last several years may be gone in 2009 as only three starters are back. For most teams this would spell doom; USC however will reload, drawing on their huge stock of talent. But no matter what, there will be some decline in the unit, and for the first time since 2004 the team might have a balance between the quality on both sides of the ball. The defensive front four loses three starters, Clay Matthews, Fili Moala, and Kyle Moore who combined for 14 sacks while Christian Tupou (0 sacks) returns. Everson Griffin (4.5 sacks) will join the starting lineup to help with the pass rush. At linebacker all three starters are gone, including the incomparable Rey Maualuga (#1 tackler, 2 int), Brian Cushing (#2 tackler), and Kaluka Maiava (#3 tackler). The linebacker corps will still be excellent as usual but the loss of Maualuga and Cushing, two of USC's best-ever, is hard to overcome and it will be tough to duplicate last year's top ten rushing defense finish. The secondary is in really good shape; after finishing the year #1 in adjusted pass defense in 2008 two starters are back: Josh Pinkard and safety Taylor Mays, who along with Eric Berry of Tennessee will be this season's token defensive Heisman candidates. My guess is teams will try to run more against USC this year, and still won't have too much luck.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Trojans must replace mediocre punter Greg Woidneck (36.9 average) and decent kicker David Buehler (9 of 13 FG). JUCO transfer Jacob Harfman is up for both spots (but more likely he gets the punting job) along with backup Billy O'Malley. Nebraska transfer Jordan Congdon and junior Joe Houston are the likely candidates to placekick.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #9
What can be said about Pete Carroll other than he wins a lot and looks like he's having a great time when he does it? It's hard to imagine now that the more vocal fans were generally negative toward him when the hiring was announced. They're all smiles now. In terms of recruiting USC has had a couple off years, and this year even placed 2nd in the Pac-10! After five straight years of #1 or near-#1 in the nation, last year the Trojans slipped just outside the top 10, and are barely inside it this year. The problem is that they're so crowded with great players that they can't recruit larger classes, so there have been just 18 or 19 players recruited each year for the past two. The quality of the players hasn't gone down, though; this year's consensus superstars are safety T.J. McDonald from Fresno, defensive lineman Devon Kennard from Phoenix, and of course quarterback Matt Barkley from Santa Ana who will be this season's starter. The rest of the class consists almost entirely of blue chips. Some questions have been raised about USC recruiting—re: Reggie Bush and improper payments, and concerning Tim Floyd and O.J. Mayo—but so far nothing has surfaced implicating Carroll. It's not hard to believe that players just truly want to come play for him and for USC, the current status symbol (even beyond Florida) in the college football world.
2009 Season Outlook 2008 was another year, another "unbeatable" team, another inexplicable loss in conference play, and more talk about how "they're playing the best football of any team" by the end of the season. The Trojans have shot themselves in the foot innumerable times (well, ok: 4 times) since 2005, all but one of their losses being a major upset. In 2006, Oregon State and UCLA; in 2007, Stanford the 41-point underdog; and last season, Oregon State once again. All of these losses were preceded by many fans and writers calling USC "unquestionably the best team in college football" with some even calling them the best of all time. After they beat Ohio State 35-3, this talk was quick to spring up again. Not one game later the Trojans were in a 21-0 hole that they couldn't quite dig out of. The rest of the season was hit and miss, with the defense always performing well and the offense sometimes joining them. Three shutouts and 10 teams held to 10 points or less was the tally at year's end. The offense underperformed at Arizona and vs. Cal, scoring just 17, but they exploded for 31 in the first half of the Rose Bowl against Penn State. Carelessness allowed the Lions to make the final score look respectable.
USC 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | San Jose State | 95% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | @ | Ohio State | 63% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 86% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 100% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | @ | *California | 53% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 63% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon State | 73% | W | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | @ | *Oregon | 64% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | @ | *Arizona State | 70% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | *Stanford | 69% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | vs. | *UCLA | 86% | W | |||
| 12/5 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 67% | W | |||
Favored: 12-0 Projected: 9-3 |
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Will they play on January 1st or January 7th? The Trojans ought to sweep their schedule, but that can almost be said every year. And they play a lot of good teams, many of them on the road. The first half of the season runs hot and cold: San Jose State, Washington, and Washington State have no business being on the field with USC, while Ohio State, Cal, and Notre Dame are all consensus top 25 and are all road games. My guess is that if any team is going to stop them it will be Cal, with the Trojans coming off a back-to-back breather against the Washington teams and still likely missing a couple of players that were injured in fall camp. They have a week off before Notre Dame but that game could be huge with both teams undefeated. If USC goes 6-0 they have a relatively easy 2nd half, with four home games. But both Oregon teams are good, Stanford and Arizona should be surprisingly good (I think) and UCLA is a rivalry game. If we've learned anything it's that USC gets bit when they think they're the best team ever and the more games they get through undefeated the more they'll be thinking just that.
But I also think the team is hungry this year after going so long (for them, yes) without playing for the championship. After years of seeing it as their right or their destiny, they realize they need to play their way in, and a loss in the Pac-10 (or anywhere) probably puts an end to the dream. I suspect we'll see USC go undefeated this year barring a legitimate (i.e. not a huge upset) loss at Cal. And there's a very good chance they'll play Florida in the Rose Bowl (the stadium, not the bowl) on January 7th.
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