The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #36 to #40. To see the full list, click here.
| 36. Pittsburgh Panthers (Big East #2) Polls: AP #28, USA/Coaches #30 |
2008 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to Oregon State 3-0 (Sun) Poll finish: AP #27; USA #31
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #28 Success: #26 Overall: #30
The Panthers are finally winning under Dave Wannstedt. Is a BCS bowl on the horizon?
Offense (7 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #34 Adj. Rush Yards: #47 Adj. Pass Yards: #69
Bill Stull established himself as the Panthers' starting quarterback despite throwing just 9 TD passes and 10 interceptions. Perhaps it's because backup Pat Bostick has 9 TDs and 17 interceptions in his career here? Either way it didn't matter last year as LeSean McCoy was the key to last year's offense, rushing for 1,488 yards and a remarkable 21 touchdowns. With McCoy gone and the leading returnee gaining just 34 yards, you have to figure there will be a de-emphasis on the running game. The Panthers had no true standout receivers, and three of the top four are gone although starters Oderick Turner and Nate Byham (tight end) are back along with Jonathan Baldwin who had a strong freshman year. The good news is that the offensive line returns four starters which should aid the new running back, be he sophomore Shariff Harris, redshirt freshman Chris Burns, or true freshman Dion Lewis.
Defense (7 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #28 Adj. Rush Def: #12 Adj. Pass Def: #48
The defense—especially against the run—was tough last year and should take another step up in '09 despite some key losses. Three starters return on the D-line: Mick Williams, Greg Williams, and Jabaal Sheard who combined for 13.5 sacks. Linebacker is their most questionable area as they lose both #1 tackler Scott McKillop (137) and #2 Austin Ransom (89). But starter Greg Williams returns and replacing the others are Adam Gunn and Shane Murray, both of whom started in 2007. The secondary returns three out of four starters, with corners Jovani Chappel (2 int) and Aaron Berry (3 int) joining strong safety Dom DeCicco (4 int). Though they lose three of their top five tacklers, they return the next ten, and have no weak areas on the field.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Pitt must replace the excellent Conor Lee, who connected on 20 of 24 field goals last year. Redshirt freshman Kevin Harper or junior Dan Hutchins will try to replace him. Hutchins is also in line for the punting position, where Dave Brytus departs after averaging a reasonable 40.7 yards per kick.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #50
All of Dave Wannstedt's signing classes have been in the top 25 or very close until this year, so the question fans ask is, with all this talent coming in, why couldn't the team win? His critics say it's because he can't coach, he can only recruit. Last year's success either proved the critics wrong, or, showed that with a critical mass of talent any coach can win. This year's group of newcomers ranks in the middle of the Big East rather than #1 as has been the case for the last several years. There are no super blue chips this time, just your run-of-the-mill blue chips like running back Ray Graham and linebacker Dan Mason. Another consensus four-star recruit, receiver Todd Thomas, failed to qualify and will attend prep school.
Pittsburgh 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Youngstown State | 91% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | @ | Buffalo | 58% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | vs. | Navy | 73% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | North Carolina State | 52% | W | |||
| 10/2 | Fri | @ | *Louisville | 62% | W | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | *Connecticut | 63% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Fri | @ | *Rutgers | 46% | L | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | vs. | *South Florida | 58% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | *Syracuse | 75% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | Notre Dame | 48% | L | |||
| 11/27 | Fri | @ | *West Virginia | 53% | W | |||
| 12/5 | Sat | vs. | *Cincinnati | 63% | W | |||
Favored: 10-2 Projected: 7-5 |
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2009 Season Outlook It looked like it was going to be another lame season at Pitt. The opening loss to Bowling Green, after such high expectations for the season, was like a punch in the face. Beating Buffalo and Iowa back to back—a remarkable achievement in hindsight—didn't register at the time because neither team had been revealed as a winner yet. Three more wins and they were 5-1 with a win over USF but still it seemed they hadn't beaten anybody. Over the 2nd half of the season they lost to Rutgers and Cincinnati, beat Notre Dame in four overtimes, and closed out the season with two wins including a 34-10 win at UConn that put them at 9-3, and undeniably winning season. The loss to Oregon State in Sun Bowl, and the fashion in which it happened (3-0) underscored how poor the offense was at times in Wannstedt's reign. He hired a new offensive coordinator after the season was over.
This year many teams in the Big East see big declines and Pitt is there to take advantage. Despite their own offense seeing a decline the defense should be better and their biggest competition for the Big East title is Rutgers, who they unfortunately play on the road. Other than that their toughest game is hosting a very improved Notre Dame. Both these games are winnable, giving Pitt a chance (though very slim) of going undefeated. With all the close and uncertain games the cumulative projection falls to just under 7 1/2 wins, thus 7-5. But I think 8-4 is the worst they'll do; they could lose to N.C. State and West Virginia on the road. But the 10-2 slate already shows them splitting the close games, so it's not completely unrealistic.
| 37. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (ACC #7; Atlantic #3) Polls: USA/Coaches #47 |
2008 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Navy 29-19 (EagleBank) Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #30 Success: #18 Overall: #27
Last year the offense struggled and the defense excelled; this year things will be more even.
Offense (9 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #67 Adj. Rush Yards: #67 Adj. Pass Yards: #92
Last year's offense was mediocre, and a big part of that was the O-line which had four new starters and allowed 30 sacks. Things should be much better this year; if it's possible to return more than five starters to the offensive line, the Deacons do it for '09. Starters Russell Nenon, Jeff Griffin, Joe Birdsong, and Barrett McMillan, all return for their senior year, as do Joe Looney and Trey Bailey who covered the last slot. All are back plus senior Chris DeGeare who started full-time in 2006 and most of 2007. Behind this much more experienced line quarterback Riley Skinner will operate, hoping to amp up a passing game that generated under 2,500 yards and 13 TDs. Skinner is efficient; he completed 72% in 2007 and threw only 7 interceptions last year. His top receiver, D.J. Boldin, is gone along with the other started Chip Brinkman but Marshall Williams returns with starting tight end Ben Wooster. The running game has talent: Starter Josh Adams (4 TDs) is back along with Brandon Pendergrass who actually outgained him (528 yards, 5 TDs) and #3 Kevin Harris who will push both of them, and fullback Mike Rinfrette is back for his senior year.
Defense (4 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #10 Adj. Rush Def: #8 Adj. Pass Def: #65
When teams found they couldn't run on the Deacons they went to the air, where they had better luck but still found themselves having difficulty scoring. This year there are lots of holes to fill. The rushing defense will still have most of its toughness, as the front four return three starters: Boo Robinson (5 sacks), Kyle Wilber (3), and John Russell (4). Those three are the team's leading returning tacklers as well, placing 6th, 7th, and 9th in '08. If a back manages to get past the D-line they may find themselves with some open air. All three starters at linebacker are gone, including the team's #1 and #2 tacklers Aaron Curry (13.5 tackles for loss) and Stanley Arnoux. The secondary returns corner Brandon Ghee but loses draft picks Alphonso Smith (7 interceptions) and Chip Vaughn. Overall the defense loses its top five tacklers and though the rushing defense will still be good, when teams go to the air they may have a lot more luck.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Shane Popham was last year's punter (39.2 average) and backup placekicker (7 of 12 FG). Sam Swank was the primary kicker (11 of 17 FG) and started out as punter (37.6 average) until injured. Popham returns this year as punter and will placekick as well unless freshman Jimmy Newman beats him out.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #63
Despite Jim Grobe's success in turning Wake Forest into a winning program recruiting still ranks near the bottom of the ACC. That's not surprising when you consider how much of a basketball-only school Wake Forest was for such a long time. But things are improving, and this year's class has more recruit than last year's without sacrificing quality. That said, none of the recruits stands out as a blue chip, though about half are considered above average. Grobe rarely plays true freshmen, but he makes exceptions when it's practical. For example, if kicker Newman proves his worth he will play and start. And fullback Tommy Bohanon might play as a true even though they already have a fifth-year senior in the slot.
Wake Forest 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Baylor | 50% | L | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Stanford | 46% | L | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | vs. | Elon | 76% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | *Boston College | 46% | L | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *North Carolina State | 58% | W | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | *Maryland | 68% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | @ | *Clemson | 43% | L | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | Navy | 65% | W | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | vs. | *Miami (Florida) | 51% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | @ | *Georgia Tech | 40% | L | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | *Florida State | 48% | L | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | @ | *Duke | 60% | W | |||
Favored: 6-6 Projected: 7-5 |
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2009 Season Outlook Like every ACC team the Deacons had their moment in the conference title driver's seat. They were 6-3 and ranked when two narrow losses sank their BCS dreams. In fact narrow losses were the story of their season. Aside from a 26-0 pasting by Maryland the Deacs lost by 7 to Navy, by 6 to Miami, by 4 to N.C. State and by 3 to Boston College. No team scored more than 30 points against them, a credit to their defense and an indictment of their offense. They beat Navy in the silly bowl-game rematch.
Wake Forest beat Baylor 41-13 on the road last year but this time around it's too close to call even in Winston-Salem. And Stanford is even tougher. What happened to this supposedly easy schedule? Even Elon is going to be good this year in I-AA. The ACC still has a lot of parity but most of the teams got better, leaving Wake to a 6-6 record. The cumulative projection seems to know that the opener against Baylor should be a win and gives them a 7-5 record, which I think is reasonable. Better in some ways, worse in others, this team's strengths and shortcomings largely even out, and without the same influx of new talent that the other conference teams have the Deacons will slip a bit. Still, a fourth bowl game in a row is unprecedented here.
| 38. Arizona State Sun Devils (Pac-10 #7) |
2008 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #52 Success: #77 Overall: #55
The Sun Devils return a moderate number of starters but also the vast majority of their reserves.
Offense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #82 Adj. Rush Yards: #115 Adj. Pass Yards: #51
Quarterback Rudy Carpenter was the face of the team for the last four years; now it appears that senior Danny Sullivan is finally going to get his shot. In practice he's been performing a lot better than last year's 35% completion rate would imply; sophomore Samson Szakacsy hasn't thrown well and will likely be the backup. Top receiver Michael Jones (4 TDs) is gone but Chris McGaha returns after managing to top 500 yards in '08. At running back the return of Dmitri Nance and Shaun DeWitty should make up for Keegan Herring's departure and sophomore Ryan Bass could see more touches. The offensive line returns three full-time starters in Shawn Lauvao, Jon Hargis, and Thomas Altieri, though the latter is listed behind sophomore Garth Gerhardt at center and others such as Tom Njunge were part-time starters in '08. The line blocked poorly but should be a lot better this year, helping ASU's rushing stats crawl out of the cellar.
Defense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #23 Adj. Rush Def: #27 Adj. Pass Def: #45
The defense tried to hold the team together last year as the offense sputtered and did a fair job. The front seven could be even better this year. On the D-line Dexter Davis (11 sacks) returns alongside Lawrence Guy, and at linebacker they lose #2 tackler Morris Wooten but return #1 Mike Nixon (5 int) and #3 Travis Goethel, while Gerald Munns returns after starting the first three games last season. The secondary loses both safeties including pro pick Troy Nolan but both corners—Terrell Carr and Omar Bolden—are back. In addition roughly 18 players from the 2nd and 3rd string defense are back this year and several incoming freshman may play key roles right away.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Thomas Weber wasn't as good last year as he was his freshman year when he made 24 of 25 field goals. In 2008 he hit 19 of 25, still good but not up to his standards. He's back to try to win a 2nd Groza Award. He punted well last year, too, averaging a more-then-respectable 41.4 yards though just 33.8 net. Oddly, Weber is hoping the team finds an adequate replacement at punter so he can concentrate on placekicking. So if junior Trevor Hankins can beat him (or equal him?) at punting he'll get the job. Hankins averaged 37.1 yards in 7 punts last year so expect Weber to be punting again.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #40
Dennis Erickson got a reputation for cutting town due to leaving Miami in the wake of the Pell Grant scandal and jumping from Idaho to ASU after just one season. But he's also brought a reputation as a good recruiter. Last year's class ranked in the top 25 nationally and this year's ASU class ranks in the middle of the Pac 10. But he certainly landed some big names in '09: Vontaze Burfict is one of the top linebacker prospects in the country and should be on the 2nd string this year or even start. Another defense recruit, tackle Corey Adams, should also find an open spot on the defensive line by the end of the year. If Erickson decides to stick around and continues to get recruits like these two, ASU football has a bright future.
ASU 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Idaho State | 94% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | vs. | Louisiana-Monroe | 77% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | Georgia | 42% | L | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon State | 50% | L | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | @ | *Washington State | 77% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | vs. | *Washington | 71% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | *Stanford | 39% | L | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | vs. | *California | 38% | L | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | *Southern California | 30% | L | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | @ | *Oregon | 40% | L | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 54% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 44% | L | |||
Favored: 5-7 Projected: 7-5 |
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2009 Season Outlook After the Sun Devils were one of the brighter surprises of 2007 they were also one of 2008's most disappointing teams. Ranked to start the season, they beat Northern Arizona and Stanford but lost 23-20 in overtime to UNLV in a game that was a poster child for the "MWC is better than the Pac-10" movement last year. The next five teams they faced all ended up in the top 25; ASU lost them all and was 2-6. Washington and Washington State were just what the doctor ordered and after beating UCLA they were 5-6 and needed to beat rival Arizona to be bowl eligible. They lost 31-10.
This year the early games are the kindest, with the Washington teams in the first half of the year. The game that determines their bowl eligibility is in that span, too. Right now the Oregon State game looks too close to call. Win it and they could be 5-1 through mid-October but finish 6-6 as they hit a wall of tough competition once again. Lose it and they could be 5-7 for a second straight year.
Interestingly the cumulative projection—which adds up the individual game odds rather than worrying about each game by itself—narrowly gives the Sun Devils seven wins. So they're more likely to pick up a couple of upsets somewhere along the way and be bowl bound. This fits in with Erickson's history, as he's never had back-to-back losing seasons anywhere. Since 6-6 counts as a non-losing season, and because most of their wins and losses seem well-defined, I'll give them the Oregon State game and predict bowl eligibility in 2009.
| 39. Minnesota Golden Gophers (Big Ten #6) Polls: USA/Coaches #57 |
2008 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: Lost to Kansas 42-21 (Insight) Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #73 Success: #70 Overall: #73
A better offense and defense but less luck for the Gophers in 2009.
Offense (9 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #83 Adj. Rush Yards: #98 Adj. Pass Yards: #53
Quarterback Adam Weber has shown good abilities both in passing (62%, 2,761 yards, 15TDs, 8int) and running the ball (#2 on the team with 233 net yards, 4 TDs). Last year's #1, #3, and #4 receivers are back, Eric Decker (1,074 yards, 7 TDs), Ben Kuznia (310 yds), and Brandon Green (306). The ground game wasn't effective last year, with top back DeLeon Eskridge (7 TDs) averaging just 3.7 yards per carry and Duane Bennett lost early in the year. The consistency in the offensive line should be much greater this year as few players kept the same position game to game last year. Ryan Winn, D.J. Burris, Nedward Tavale, and Jeff Tow-Arnett all started the majority of games last season but any or all of them might play backup this year! The depth and added experience in the O-line will be a big help in what could be a very good offense.
Defense (7 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #68 Adj. Rush Def: #49 Adj. Pass Def: #110
The defense went from one of the worst in the country in 2007 to a respectable one in 2008; this year they could take it one step further. The defensive line loses Willie VanDeSteeg (10.5 sacks) but returns seniors Garrett Brown, Eric Small, and Derrick Onwuachi; they might do better against the run even as the pass rush is less effective. At linebacker they lose two starters but #1 tackler Lee Campbell returns and #5 tackler Simoni Lawrence moves into the lineup. This gives the Gophers an all-senior front seven. The secondary is going to miss Tramaine Brock (#3 tackler) at strong safety but #2 tackler Kyle Theret is back at free safety and two more seniors Marcus Sherels and Traye Simmons (4 int) return at corner. The house that (last year's D.C.) Ted Roof built still stands, and looks to be even better this year.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Gophers must replace both punter Justin Kucek (41.9 average) and kicker Joel Monroe (12 of 16 FG). Eric Ellestad looks like the new kicker, and either freshman Dan Orseske or senior Blake Hauden will punt.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #57
Tim Brewster's first year at Minnesota ended 1-11; his 2nd year started 7-1. A big part of the turnaround was due to improvement on the defense, where Ted Roof was coordinator. He left for Auburn and the offense changes hands as well, moving toward a pro-style offense under new coordinator Jedd Fisch. This year's recruiting class sits in the lower half of the Big Ten but still includes blue chip wide receiver Hayo Carpenter. Last year's class was top 25 in the country, featuring QB Marquis Gray who qualified academically this year and should be part of special plays on offense. Another standout recruit from 2008 is Sam Maresh, who was diagnosed last summer with a congenital heart defect and had open-heart surgery; after recovery a growth was found in his leg that later proved to be non-cancerous. Now a year after being told he would never play again he's back practicing with the team.
Minnesota 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | @ | Syracuse | 67% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Air Force | 65% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | vs. | California | 37% | L | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | *Northwestern | 52% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *Wisconsin | 58% | W | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | *Purdue | 60% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | @ | *Penn State | 35% | L | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | *Ohio State | 40% | L | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan State | 47% | L | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | *Illinois | 51% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | South Dakota State | 75% | W | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | @ | *Iowa | 37% | L | |||
Favored: 7-5 Projected: 6-6 |
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2009 Season Outlook To say the Gophers raced to a 7-1 start is a bit of an exaggeration. More accurately, they struggled to beat puny teams like Northern Illinois (31-27) and Montana State (35-23) at home, put up a fair fight against Ohio State, and did just as much as was needed to win three Big Ten games. The rest of the year wasn't the collapse that 0-5 appears at first blush, as they were competitive against Northwestern and Wisconsin. But Michigan whipped them and Iowa steamrolled them 55-0. Kansas finished the job, 42-21 and it was clear that more work needed to be done. Still, it beats going 1-11, that's for sure.
Minnesota will be a better team in 2009, which only means that they'll be able to match last year's record. Again they could jump to a strong start—5-1 after beating Wisconsin at home—before going into a "slump" i.e., facing tougher teams. Facing Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa on the road is a daunting task. The 7-5 call gives them both close wins over Northwestern and Illinois, and if they split those instead the 6-6 cumulation projection makes more sense. It also assumed that Air Force and Wisconsin are beatable this year, so they could backslide. But I'll go with 6-6 and a bowl game again for the Gophers.
| 40. Boston College Eagles (ACC #8; Atlantic #4) Polls: AP #40, USA/Coaches #49 |
2008 Results: Record: 9-5 Bowl: L to Vanderbilt 16-14 (Music City) Poll finish: AP #33; USA #35
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #32 Success: #19 Overall: #28
Recent bad luck has thrown a wrench into first year coach Frank Spaziani's plans for a smooth transition.
Offense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #44 Adj. Rush Yards: #56 Adj. Pass Yards: #84
The 2008 Boston College quarterback controversy was thought to be solved with the departure of Chris Crane, who threw 13 interceptions; soph Dominique Davis would take over after playing not much better than Crane, completing only 46% last season. But Davis was suspended, then transferred, leaving a major gap in the Eagle offense to be filled by either ex-fullback Codi Boek, 25-year-old ex-pitcher David Shinskie, freshman Justin Tuggle (why not Billy Flutie?). Rich Gunnell is the top returning receiver with 551 yards and 4 TDs. Luckily the running game looks to be powerful. Starting fullback James McCluskey is doubtful after an achilles' tendon tear and recovery setbacks, but Josh Haden returns at tailback and the important factor is sophomore Montel Harris who easily outperformed Haden with 900 yards and 5 TDs. The offensive line returns four starters; look for the Eagles to be a running team this season regardless of what scheme new head coach Frank Spaziani wants to implement.
Defense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #24 Adj. Rush Def: #3 Adj. Pass Def: #81
The defense had its share of bad luck, too, all at linebacker. First, Mike McLaughlin, a returning starter and the team's #2 tackler last year tore his achilles' tendon. His is healing much faster than fullback McCluskey's tear and he's expected back early in the season. But team leader Mark Herzlich won't be back after being diagnosed with cancer. Herzlich was all-ACC last season and led the team with 110 tackles, had 3 sacks among 13 tackles for loss, broke up 8 passes and had 6 interceptions. His value to the linebacking corps, the defense, and the entire team is immeasurable. The rest of the defense is in fair shape. The front four, which helped B.C. have one of the country's best rushing defenses, should be effective again with Jim Ramella and Austin Giles back, and Alex Albright returning from 2007. The defense actually ranked 18th in raw pass defense; it's only when corrected for the lousy passing teams they faced that they look bad. They lose Paul Anderson (6 int) but Wes Davis (2 int) returns at free safety and DeLeon Gause (1 int) at corner along with part-time starters Roderick Rollins (2 int) and Donnie Fletcher (3 int). With Anderson and Herzlich gone they'll see fewer interceptions, and they could be tested by good passing teams. The ACC thankfully has few but the Notre Dame game will be a challenge. How the defense responds to Herzlich's absence is the key.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Ryan Quigley (39.6 average) and kicker Steve Aponavicius (14 of 21 FG) are both back for the Eagles, with Billy Flutie returning as pooch punter.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #98
Frank Spaziani's first year couldn't have started with worse luck than losing his starting quarterback, two starters tearning their Achilles' tendons, and the team leader being diagnosed with cancer. His first recruiting class, cobbled together in the wake of Jeff Jagodzinski's firing (for talking to NFL teams), is a sharp decline from last year's borderline top 25 class and ranks last in the ACC. Transition years often work out this way, and Spaziani will be able to prove himself as a recruiter next year. This year's class was not extensive, either, as last year's had 28 players. Still, there were no true blue chips to match Josh Haden from last year, though defensive tackle Dillon Quinn comes close.
Boston College 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Northeastern | 86% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Kent State | 72% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | @ | *Clemson | 44% | L | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | vs. | *Wake Forest | 54% | W | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *Florida State | 48% | L | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | @ | *Virginia Tech | 42% | L | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | vs. | *North Carolina State | 59% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 40% | L | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | vs. | Central Michigan | 61% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | @ | *Virginia | 55% | W | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | vs. | *North Carolina | 45% | L | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | @ | *Maryland | 62% | W | |||
Favored: 7-5 Projected: 7-5 |
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2009 Season Outlook The challenge last year was clear: adjust to life without Matt Ryan. The Eagles did a decent job, too, shrugging off an early disappointment to Georgia Tech to start 5-1. Again, after losses to UNC and Clemson they didn't give up, winning four in a row (and shutting out Notre Dame) to earn placement in the ACC championship game. For the second straight season, after beating Virginia Tech during the year they lost big in the conference finale. Sent to face Vanderbilt in that team's first bowl in 1,000 years they lost 16-14, breaking their 8-bowl winning streak.
Another trip to the ACC championship game looks doubtful for '09. Of course, it looked doubtful last year, too. But they've been picked by the media to finish last in the Atlantic division. I don't think it will be quite that bad, but doing better than .500 in the ACC would be an accomplishment.
With Herzlich still in the lineup and Davis back at quarterback they might have a shot. But now both the offense and the defense will be off-balance. If the two affected by Achilles' injuries don't come back they can kiss a bowl berth goodbye (I'm assuming McLaughlin returns within the first few games and that McCluskey will miss almost the entire year if not all). That said, it looks like a pretty good season given the circumstances. Going 4-4 in the ACC will get them to a bowl game with a game to spare. I don't see them doing any better than 7-5, and it might not be a great bowl, but beggars can't be choosers.
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