2009 Pre-season Rankings - #31 to #35: Illinois, Utah, Rutgers, Missouri, Vanderbilt

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #31 to #35. To see the full list, click here.

31. Illinois Fighting Illini (Big Ten #5)     Polls: AP #27, USA/Coaches #35

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #46    Success: #68    Overall: #50
Another Juice-Williams-led offense, but this one might be the best one yet.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #35   Adj. Rush Yards: #36    Adj. Pass Yards: #21
The 2009 Illini offense looks fully reloaded. Juice Williams is the key, leading the team in rushing (719 yards) while throwing for 3,173 yards and 22 TDs last season. Favorite target Arrelious Benn (1,055 yards) is back along with Jeff Cumberland and tight end Michael Hoomanawanui. The top running backs return including Daniel Dufrene (663 yards) and Jason Ford (8 TDs). Three starters are back on the O-line, which should give good protection despite losing its two best players. In all, everything is in place for a high-powered offense in Williams' senior year.
Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #64    Adj. Rush Def: #45    Adj. Pass Def: #59
The defensive line loses three starters who combined for 13.5 sacks. They do have Josh Brent back at tackle after being suspended for the spring for DUI, plus Doug Pilcher who started in '06 and '07, but potential starter Jerry Brown was lost to academics. The front four will be an area to watch. At linebacker they lose two starters including #1 tackler Brit Miller (132 tackles, 6 sacks) while Martez Wilson returns. The secondary loses Vontae Davis to the NFL but Dere Hicks, Donsay Hardeman, and Travis Bellamy are back. Overall the front seven looks questionable and the defense as a whole might be hard pressed to make an improvement after losing their two stars.
Kicking Game (2 RS):  Anthony Santella—39.6 average but just 31.6 net—returns at punter and Matt Eller (15 of 20 FG) is back to placekick.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #38
Ron Zook can't coach but he can recuit. That's the line on Illinois' head coach, and there's some truth to it. His in-game decisions have been questionable at times. And he certainly can recruit, as this year's class (and last year's in particular) demonstrates. Though not at the top of the Big Ten it's in the top half, with quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase, receiver Terry Hawthorne, and running back Justin Green a terrific offensive trio. On defense cornerback Justin Green is a consensus blue chip.

Illinois 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Missouri	51%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Illinois State	89%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Ohio State	43%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	45%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Michigan State	50%	L
10/17	Sat	@	*Indiana	70%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Purdue	56%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	63%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Minnesota	49%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	62%	W
11/27	Fri	@	Cincinnati	58%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	Fresno State	69%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Last year was a bit of a retrenchment after the breakout Rose Bowl year in 2007. They couldn't keep up with Missouri in the opener and barely hung on to beat UL-Lafayette. After the 2-1 start they alternated losses (Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin) and wins (Michigan, Indiana, Iowa). But losing to Western Michigan 23-17 was their low point, and losses to Ohio State and Northwestern insured a bowl-free season.

This year the close games will determine how much better the Illini do. And they will do better, winning at least 7 games and going to a bowl game. The first, and perhaps most important test is Missouri. The Tigers are on their way down and they meet Illinois on the way up in a true tossup. I have them listed as winning the neutral-field game (finally) while dropping tight games to MSU (home) and Minnesota (road). Win all of those and Illinois finishes even better than in 2007.

The offense is certainly good enough to guide the team to a 10-2 finish, but the defense is an area of question. Should they lose again to Missouri, probable losses to Ohio State and Penn State could lead to a 1-4 start, which would not be good for morale. But none of the first five games is completely out of their reach; they also avoid playing Iowa this year which is good. Illinois is a team to keep an eye on early this season as that's when they'll signal whether they might be able to make another Rose Bowl run.

32. Utah Utes (Mountain West #2)     Polls: AP #19, USA/Coaches #18

2008 Results:    Record: 13-0   Bowl: Beat Alabama 31-17 (Sugar)   Poll finish: AP #2, USA #4
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #10    Success: #1    Overall: #5
Utah won their second BCS bowl game in five years but this time they kept their coach, though once again their star quarterback is gone.
Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #12   Adj. Rush Yards: #45    Adj. Pass Yards: #30
Returning to the Ute offense are starting linemen Zane Taylor, Zane Beadles, and Caleb Sclauderaff. You can argue that's it, three offensive linemen back from the Utes' 13-0 dream team. You can argue that Matt Asiata, the leading rushing last year with 707 yards and 12 TDs should be considered a returning starter despite only starting 1 game. Or you can note that three starters—Freddy Brown (900 yds, 7 TDs), Brent Casteel (4 TDs), and Bradon Godfrey (4)—are gone from four receiving slots (+ tight end) and that if you add up returners Jerome Brooks (1 TD), David Reed (6 TD) and tight end Chris Joppru, you almost have another starter. We'll call it four starters back on move on. The important stat is how much they lost, which begins first and foremost with Brian Johnson (68%, 2,972 yards, 27 TDs, 9 int) who seemingly willed the team to win several times last year. Moving ahead of both Terrance Cain and Corbin Louks in the race to replace Johnson is true freshman Jordan Wynn; Louks is transferring to Nevada. Whoever ends up behind center has a tough act to follow and a depleted offense to run, but should be fairly well-protected at least.
Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #15    Adj. Rush Def: #11    Adj. Pass Def: #34
The defense isn't in bad shape at all, especially in relative sense. The front four boasts three returning starters; two who played on the line last year (Derrick Shelby and Koa Misi) and Nai Fotu who played linebacker. The other two linebackers, #1 tackler Mike Wright and #2 Stevenson Sylvester, also return meaning five out of the front seven are back; additionally, defensive end Kenape Eliapo began last year as the starter before he was injured but is healthy now. The secondary has both starting safeties back, Joe Dale (3 int) and Robert Johnson (4 int), both of whom are seniors, though both corners are gone and potential starter Damilyn Tanner was lost to academics. Overall the defense looks tough again, particularly up front where they stuffed the run last year.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Utah suffers two major losses this year: Quarterback Brian Johnson, and punter/kicker Louis Sakoda. Sakoda has played both roles with excellence for three years, averaging 42.1 yards per punt last year while making 22 of 24 field goals. Attempting to replace him at placekicker will be strong-legged Ben Vroman who handled kickoffs last year, and either Vroman or Sean Sellwood at punter.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #51
Kyle Whittingham could have jumped to another team like several of his assistants did but he stayed put after the Utes' undefeated season. He recruits well even though there have to be questions about how long he'll stay. Utah finished 2nd in the Mountain West, behind only BYU, in the recruiting stakes this year, the 13-0 run giving some boost on signing day. One disappointment for this recruiting phase was that elite national recruit James Aiono, a juco defensive end expected to start this year, didn't enroll in the fall and can't play until next year. That way he'll have two years of eligibility left when he enrolls—assuming that happens. Many "grayshirts" use their new-found freedom to sign elsewhere, or end up not qualifying particularly if the reason for delaying enrollment was academics rather than injury.

Utah 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	Utah State	73%	W
9/12	Sat	@	San Jose State	68%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Oregon	42%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	Louisville	70%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Colorado State	67%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*UNLV	65%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Air Force	67%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Wyoming	79%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	74%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*TCU	40%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*San Diego State	82%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*BYU	54%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 8-4

2009 Season Outlook  No one said going 13-0 was easy, and it certainly wasn't for the Utes as they dodged several pitfalls games en route to perfection. But when they needed a great drive or a hard-fought game, they brought it. The Utes completely outplayed Michigan but still escaped from Ann Arbor with just a 25-23 win. A few weeks later they needed a late TD to beat Air Force, then a miracle comeback to overcome Oregon State 31-28. They won back-to-back 13-10 games against New Mexico and TCU; in the latter they were dominated the whole game, doing nothing until a final drive. But they crushed BYU and rolled over the Tide in the Sugar Bowl, finishing 13-0.

When my system picked them to go 12-0 last year I didn't believe it. There were too many close games on the slate, and surely they'd slip up once, I figured! They made it all the way, but with bad luck instead of good they'd have been the most underrated 7-5 team in the country.

This year looks like another good one despite the loss of Johnson, Sakoda, and most of the starters on offense. The vast majority of the 2nd and 3rd string is back for the Utes, especially on offense where they need it. The defense will be solid again. And their competition is not that great. Despite what you've heard about the Mountain West being of BCS level, it's not quite true. There are three good teams, then a big drop off. And TCU and BYU aren't as good as they were last year, especially BYU in my opinion. Utah can beat any team in the league except TCU and their only big non-conference challenge is Oregon. They'd have to repeat their luck from last year to go 10-2, so 9-3 or 8-4 is more realistic. Being realistic is what made me pick Utah to go 11-1 instead of 12-0 last season, but they don't have Brian Johnson to defy the laws of the universe any more.

33. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Big East #1)     Polls: AP #30, USA/Coaches #32

2008 Results: Record: 8-5  Bowl: Beat N.C. State 29-23 (Pappajohns) Poll finish: AP #34; USA #36
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #33    Success: #43    Overall: #35
The Knights are a borderline top 25 team. If you take schedule into account they finish in the top 10.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #36   Adj. Rush Yards: #62    Adj. Pass Yards: #19
It took some time last year but Rutgers adjusted to life without Ray Rice. Now they'll have to adjust to life without Mike Teel. The Knights' quarterback threw for 3,418 yards and 25 TDs in his senior campaign, leading the team back from the brink of disaster to a winning year and throwing a record seven touchdown passes in their final regular-season game. Domenic Natale has the double-edged honor of following Teel who has raised expectations considerably, so much so that they wanted Teel replaced early in the year. With go-to guy Kenny Britt (1,371 yards, 7 TDs) among three of the top four pass-catchers gone his job won't be easy. On the other hand he should have ample time to scout out new targets as all five starters return to an offensive line which allowed just 19 sacks last year. They should improve the running game greatly, too, as fullback Jack Corcoran returns with top tailbacks Kordell Young, Jourdan Brooks, and Joe Martinek who combined for over 1,400 yards and 15 TDs. Just as Rutgers became a passing team when Rice left they should move back toward the run this year.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #35    Adj. Rush Def: #17    Adj. Pass Def: #107
The defense stopped the run well last year but not the pass. It could be more of the same this year as two starters return in each area of the defense suggesting that a radically different breakdown is unlikely. George Johnson and Alex Silvestro bookend the front four; they accounted for just 4 sacks while last year's tackles accounted for ten. At linebacker they lose #1 tackler Kevin Malast but #2 Ryan D'Imperio (5.5 sacks) is back. The secondary also returns two starters—Devin McCourty and Joe Lefeged—while Courtney Greene and Devin's brother Jason depart. Devin had five more tackles than Jason but one fewer interception. The defense will likely still have strength up front and weakness in the backfield, but because about 19 of the 22 2nd- and 3rd-stringers are back, the defense should get an overall boost.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The Scarlet Knights have both last year's punter—Teddy Dellaganna, 41.2 average—and placekicker San San Te (12 of 17 FGs) back.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #31
Greg Schiano has managed to do the impossible. No, not bringing Rutgers back into the world of winning football programs. That was tough, but the impossible thing is that he's still at the school, resisting any and all attempts to recruit him away. The program's success is feeding on itself now and this year's recruiting class reflects that. Better than last year's, it ranks near the top of the Big East.

Rutgers 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	*Cincinnati	64%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Howard	100%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Florida International	71%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Maryland	63%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	Texas Southern	100%	W
10/16	Fri	vs.	*Pittsburgh	55%	W
10/23	Fri	@	Army	77%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Connecticut	58%	W
11/12	Thu	vs.	*South Florida	59%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Syracuse	69%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Louisville	63%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	*West Virginia	61%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 8-4

2009 Season Outlook  Last year was the proverbial tale of two seasons for Rutgers. Playing sloppy and losing 24-7 in a game they could have won against Fresno State, the Knights were then whipped by UNC 44-12 and lost to Navy, 23-21. After they fell to West Virgina and Cincinnati, a win over I-AA Morgan State was their only skin in a 1-5 start. They lucked out a win over UConn, 12-10, but that only underscored how pathetic the offense was. Then something clicked and Teel became a monster. They scored 54 at Pitt, 49 at USF, and 63 against Louisville, going 5-0 to close the season at 6-6. They won their bowl game and again had a winning record, their 4th straight.

This season Rutgers has several things going for it on the schedule. Seven home games; two FCS teams—bad FCS teams—and chief Big East rival Pitt at home. All of this adds up to what could be a 12-0 season, somewhat of a repeat of their Cinderella year of 2006. Rutgers is no world-beater this year; even with two "gimmes" on the schedule the cumulative projection adds up to just over eight wins. But with most of the Big East clustered below them in the rankings, this year the conference is theirs for the taking. I don't think they'll make it undefeated. Either early when the offense is adjusting to the new quarterback or in one of their few tough games later, probably both, they'll lose. But they should get about 10 wins, and all that will likely translate into a Big East title and BCS bowl game. Which they'll more than likely lose, since they might not even be a top 25 team, but the Orange Bowl is the Orange Bowl, right? In fact, Rutgers fans should almost pray for a loss somewhere, otherwise the Knights run the slim risk of being matched against Florida in the BCS championship game, which would be very ugly.

34. Missouri Tigers (Big Twelve #7; North #2)     Polls: AP #45, USA/Coaches #34

2008 Results: Record: 10-4  Bowl: Beat Northwestern 30-23ot (Alamo)   Poll finish: AP #19; USA #16
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #8    Success: #31    Overall: #13
Missouri tries to recover from the loss of QB Chase Daniel.
Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #6   Adj. Rush Yards: #57    Adj. Pass Yards: #5
The Tiger passing game was the Tiger offense last year, by and large. They ran the ball fairly well, too, but some of that was Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin's doing, too. The star quarterback (4,335 yards, 39 TDs, 73% completions) and receiver (102 rec., 1,260 yards, 13 TDs, 2 return TDs) were the team's #3 and #2 rushers as well. Along with those two, tight end Chase Coffman (10 TDs) and Tommy Saunders (7 TDs) are gone this year, leaving #3 Jared Perry (567 yards) the top returning receiver. Sophomore Blaine Gabbert (#3 QB, 5 of 13 attempts last year) will take over. It might be a good time to balance out the offense with more running plays given that Derrick Washington (1,036 yards, 17 TDs) returns along with three starters in the offensive line. 
Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #44    Adj. Rush Def: #22    Adj. Pass Def: #108
Passing defense was Missouri's weakness last year, and they were unfortunate in that the Big 12 was one the best passing conferences of all time in 2008. But the Tigers lose defenders across the board and even their strength—rushing defense—will be tested. Three starters who accounted for 18.5 sacks are gone from the defensive line; Jaron Baston (1 sack) returns. The best news is at linebacker where two of three starters return including #1 tackler Sean Weatherspoon (155 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 interceptions). Luke Lambert is also back but they lose #2 tackler Brock Christopher (105 tackles). The secondary was picked apart last year by some of the Big Twelve's best and three starters are gone. Last year's #5 tackler Carl Gettis returns at cornerback but #3 Justin Garrett, #4 William Moore, and #6 Castine Bridges are gone. The Tigers return much more of the 2nd string than the starting lineup from '08 but these losses are significant.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Jake Harry is back to punt again after averaging 40.7 yards per kick. Kicker Jeff Wolfert is gone and senior Tanner Mills is set to replace him.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #50
Missouri's 2009 recruiting class took a big hit with the loss of Sheldon Richardson, the top tight end prospect in the country, to academic disqualification. Richardson will attend junior college and plans to attend Missouri in 2011. WIthout him the class ranks in the lower half of the Big Twelve, quite a bit lower than last year's crew. Not that Gary Pinkel didn't bring in any good players; linebacker Josh Tatum is a consensus blue chip and could start this year. Another standout recruit, quarterback Blaine Dalton, almost got himself booted after a traffic stop/drug fiasco, but he's been cleared to play after avoiding felony charges and then he got a DUI and was kicked off the squad anyway.

Missouri 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Illinois	49%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green	72%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Furman	80%	W
9/25	Fri	@	Nevada	59%	W
10/8	Thu	vs.	*Nebraska	59%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	37%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Texas	22%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Colorado	57%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	52%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Kansas State	58%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	67%	W
11/28	Sat	N	*Kansas	46%	L
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Missouri had high hopes for 2008 and for a while they were coming true. After beating Nebraska 52-17 on the road they stood 5-0 with another win over Illinois and Chase Daniel was in the Heisman driver's seat, awaiting a showdown with Texas that would leave the path clear to an undefeated season.

But the game before Texas, a home game against Oklahoma State, went awry. Daniel kept trying to complete a comeback win against the Cowboys but they weren't having it, intercepting him three times to seal a 28-23 victory. The letdown carried over into next week as Texas blasted them 56-31. Missouri became an essentially forgotten team nationally as the Big Twelve South teams battled it out week-by-week. Mizzou racked up three more wins before being upset by Kansas. Still, it was good enough to go to the Big Twelve championship game and get crushed by Oklahoma 62-21. Heavy favorites against Northwestern in the Alamo Bowl they had all the hallmarks of a team ripe for an upset; they needed overtime but prevailed over the Wildcats.

The Tigers aren't nearly the team they were last year. Yet their schedule doesn't change much from last year's relatively easy one. The teams they beat last year they may be able to beat again (save perhaps Illinois). The ones they lost to they'll lose to again. They won't win by nearly as much, and they might lose by a lot more some weeks. But in the end the W-L tally might be almost the same. Realistically I'd lean toward the cumulative projection, which almost puts them at 6-6; I figure that early on while the offense is learning to crawl and the defense is adjusting to all its new members that either Nevada or Nebraska will catch them, or Colorado, Baylor, or Kansas State later. But it would take a hard fall to have a losing season. It's not out of the question when you look at who they lose but the team was solid top to bottom last year and will still be a decent team. Whether 8-4, 7-5, or 6-6 Missouri will manage to be bowl eligible again. Just don't expect to see them in a third straight Big Twelve title game.

35. Vanderbilt Commodores (SEC #6; East #3)      Polls: AP #45

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Beat Boston College 16-14 (Music City)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #42    Success: #28    Overall: #41
The Commodores hope for another rare winning season and bowl game victory.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #79   Adj. Rush Yards: #49    Adj. Pass Yards: #114
MacKenzie Adams and Chris Nickson went back and forth at quarterback last season, with neither completing 50% of his passes. It's no wonder the Commodores finished in the bottom 10 in the nation in passing. Nickson is gone and Adams is back but he is likely the #2 QB behind Larry Smith, a sophomore who exceeded a 50% rate in both games he played. That's good enough for Vandy. For Smith there's good news and there's bad news. The bad news first: All of the top five receivers from last year are gone except tight end Brandon Barden (209 yards, 4 TDs) and transfer Terrence Jeffers from UConn won't be eligible this year. The good news: every starter is back on the offensive line. All of them are in their 2nd year of starting, but still, look for a drop in sacks and a better running game with Jared Hawkins gunning for 1,000 yards.
Defense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #16    Adj. Rush Def: #67    Adj. Pass Def: #13
One reason Vandy could win games with such a terrible passing offense is that they had such a great defense, particularly passing defense. With nine starters back the defense will continue to win games for the Commodores. The defensive line returns intact, with Steven Stone and Broderick Stewart (5 sacks apiece) at end and Greg Billinger and Adam Smotherman at tackle. All three linebackers return, including #1 tackler Patrick Benoist and #2 Chris Marve. The secondary loses D.J. Moore (6 interceptions) and Reshard Langford (3) but returns Ryan Hamilton (104 tackles, 4 interceptions) and Myron Lewis (5 int). The passing defense will slide a bit naturally but the front seven will compensate with added pressure and the rushing defense should improve immensely.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Brett Upson (40.4 average) is back, while redshirt freshman Ryan Fowler is expected to replace kicker Bryant Hahnfeldt (13 of 18 FG).
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #84
Even if Vandy were 50 spots higher in our recruiting rankings they'd still be last in the SEC. Yet Bobby Johnson has built a winning program while being last in recruiting most years. He's trying to make the program a winning one but with 11 other teams at or near the top 25 in recruiting it's going to be tough. There was some improvement after last year's winning season—about half of this year's recruits are above average, where just a handful of last year's were—to sustain a winning program in the SEC is going to take landing some good signing classes. Otherwise it seems there's a limit to how much—and for how long—the Commodores can be above water, even with Johnson at the helm getting the most out of his players.

Vandy 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Western Carolina	94%	W
9/12	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	42%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	73%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Rice	59%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	38%	L
10/10	Sat	@	Army	77%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	49%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*South Carolina	54%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	Georgia Tech	48%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Florida	1%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	65%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Tennessee	53%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  The 2008 Commodores roared out of the gate with a win over Miami of Ohio, an upset of South Carolina, wins over Rice and Mississippi that looked even better in retrospect, and an upset of Auburn which looks pedestrian in the rear-view mirror. They were 5-0 when their lack of offense finally bit them in the ass. They scored 14, 14, 7, and 14 points in losing their next four, one of them an upset loss to Duke. They beat Kentucky to become bowl eligible, but put that in danger by losing two more (scoring 10 points each outing) and finishing 6-6. Vandy hadn't had a winning season since 1982 not won a bowl game since 1955 but they did both in beating Boston College, scoring just 16 but holding the Eagles to 14.

This year Vandy should only get better across the board. The QB play and the running game will be better, and the passing game can't get much worse. The defense will be among the best in the nation, too. It was good enough to get them 7 wins last year, and should do the same this year. Two very close games (Georgia and Georgia Tech at home) go against the Commodores or they'd be even better, but I don't count on them winning either of those. If they do, you have to look at the two road games (South Carolina and Tennesse) that could also go against them. The cumulative projection narrowly gives them a 7th win, but even if they slip somewhere they can make it up on another game and go at least 6-6 again. Another bowl year should be on Vanderbilt's plate this season, served up again by a tough defense.