2009 Pre-season Rankings - #26 to #30: Georgia, Oregon State, Baylor, Clemson, Miami

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #26 to #30. To see the full list, click here.

26. Georgia Bulldogs (SEC #5; East #2)     Polls: AP #13, USA/Coaches #13

2008 Results: Record: 10-3  Bowl: Beat Michigan St. 24-12 (Capitol One)   Poll finish: AP#13, USA#10
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #21    Success: #14    Overall: #20
The Bulldogs didn't live up to the hype last year. Can they exceed this year's lower expectations?
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #13   Adj. Rush Yards: #35    Adj. Pass Yards: #16
Georgia's hopes on offense start with the offensive line. With starters Ben Jones, Chris Davis, Cordy Glenn, and Clint Boling back, plus half-time starters Justin Anderson and Vince Vance and 2007 starter Trinton Sturdivant, Georgia has the makings of a strong line regardless of who starts or where each one ends up playing. Right now it looks like Davis is the odd man out playing backup but the rest is undecided. But the "skill" positions are depleted in a big way. Though one of the two top receivers, Al Green (963 yds. 8 TDs), is back, they lose Mohamed Massaquoi (920 yards, 8 TDs). And of course the big losses are at quarterback and running back: #1 overall draft pick Matt Stafford (3,459 yards, 25 TDs) and Knowshon Moreno (1,400 yards, 16 TDs). Replacing Stafford will likely be fifth-year senior Joe Cox, who did well enough last year in limited play. To replace Moreno the Bulldogs may use a USC-style approach with sophomore Caleb King Richard Samuel taking the lead, becoming "a solid number one" among the backs.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #49    Adj. Rush Def: #21    Adj. Pass Def: #57
The rushing defense was decent last year and may improve even with the loss of two starters from the defensive line. Seniors Geno Atkins and Roderick Battle return, while another senior, Jeff Owens, started most of 2006 and 2007 before a knee injury kept him out last year. The other end position will have Demarcus Dobbs and Kiante Tripp, so each position in the D-line is in good hands. At linebacker they lose a starter but again, all positions are secure with three part-time starters back: #1 tackler Rennie Curran, Akeem Dent, and #3 tackler Darryl Gamble. The secondary is the big concern. After finishing a mediocre #57 in adjusted passing yards yielded they lose Asher Allen and C.J. Byrd. Reshad Jones (#2 tackler, 5 interceptions) is back with Prince Miller, and free safety Bryan Evans is experienced. Overall six of the top eight tacklers are back and the front seven looks very good.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Excellent punter Brian Mimbs (44 yards average) is gone, with sophomore Drew Butler set to replace him. Placekicker Blair Walsh returns after hitting 15 of 23 field goals.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #7
This year, finishing 3rd in the SEC in recruiting means you can still be among the top 10 in the nation. Of course Georgia has consistently been in the top 10 in head coach Mark Ritch's 8-year tenure, but this is one of his best classes yet. Defensive back Branden Smith is the consensus 5-star in the group and has a shot at starting this season, while Marlon Brown can help at receiver this year and Aaron Murray is a potential starter at quarterback next year.
2009 Season Outlook  Georgia started the 2008 season at #1 in the AP poll. I had them #9 and finishing 10-2 and even that turned out to be too optimistic. They lost their top spot before they lost a game but were still in the driver's seat at 4-0 before a showdown with Alabama. The Tide crushed the Bulldogs 31-0 in the first half and while thoughts of a national title weren't completely gone it was clear that they weren't a top five team. They plodded through three more wins before getting bulldozed by Florida 49-10. Their final three games reflected their disappointment: narrow wins over Kentucky and Auburn followed by a home loss to rival Georgia Tech. They recovered to outgun Michigan State 24-12 in the Capitol One bowl but that didn't redeem their Season of Great Expectations.

Georgia 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Oklahoma State	39%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	64%	W
9/19	Sat	@	*Arkansas	55%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Arizona State	58%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Louisiana State	52%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Tennessee	57%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Vanderbilt	51%	W
10/31	Sat	N	*Florida	8%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	Tennessee Tech	100%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	60%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Kentucky	70%	W
11/28	Sat	@	Georgia Tech	45%	L
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

Georgia opens at Oklahoma State and will be missing Justin Houston from the D-line and Josh Davis on the O-line, both experienced backups. That game will say a lot about both teams' chances for a big season. The Bulldogs may lose that one but then could go on a six-game winning streak that will end either at Vanderbilt(!) or certainly Florida. Following that they have a gimme against weak I-AA Tennessee Tech and should beat Auburn and Kentucky again before another showdown with Georgia Tech. With several tough games among the six "wins" in a row it's possible that the Bulldogs could fall to even 6-6 this year.

But I don't think Georgia will slip much at all from last year. The quarterback situation isn't bad—Stafford was more of a team leader/manager type than a superstar, and with a better line the running back committee will almost make up for Moreno's absence. On defense the front seven makes the overall unit better than last year. With a similar quality team I see a similar finish, either 9-3 or maybe 8-4 but again, watch that first game to see the real results of the team's new look.

27. Oregon State Beavers (Pac-10 #6)     Polls: AP #26, USA/Coaches #25

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Beat Pittsburgh 3-0 (Sun)   Poll finish: AP #18, USA #19
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #19    Success: #13    Overall: #18
The concern this year is the defense, and the toughness of the Pac-10.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #23   Adj. Rush Yards: #41    Adj. Pass Yards: #22
Last year the big discovery was true freshman Jacquizz Rogers, who torched USC for 186 yards in last year's upset win and finished with 1,253 yards and 11 TDs. Quizz is back with brother James at flanker (1,007 yards and 9 TDs combined rushing/receiving) and tight end Howard Croom to help make up for the loss of receivers Sammie Stroughter (1,040 yards, 7 TDs) and Shane Morales (8 TDs). Aptly-named Darrell Catchings is also expected to be a top target when he returns from a wrist injury. The quarterback job is likely to go to Sean Canfield, who had just 703 yards last year (67%, 6 TDs, 2 int) but has started often over the years. Canfield is looking great in practice by all accounts and last year's starter Lyle Moevao (2,543 yards, 19 TDs, 13 int) was slowed by off-season should surgery. He'll be ready for fall, and if the last few years' injury records are any indication he'll be needed at some point. Three starters are back on the O-line. With two competent senior quarterbacks offense should be about equal to last year's and could improve as the receivers gain experience.
Defense (3 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #22    Adj. Rush Def: #46    Adj. Pass Def: #11
The defense is clearly an area of concern going into 2009 with just three starters back. Two years ago Oregon State's rushing defense was #1 in the country in adjusted yards allowed; last year they had to replace the entire front seven but maintained a respectable #46 and had 39 sacks. This year the front four returns Stephen Paea (5 sacks), but loses Slade Norris (10 sacks) and Victor Butler (12 sacks!). At linebacker they return two starters, Keaton Kristick and Keith Pankey. The secondary did a great job in 2008 but is in a shambles losing all four starters including top tackler Greg Laybourn (3 int) and three others who combined for 28 broken up passes and 7 interceptions. The four combined for 12 years of starting experience. This year's defense is going to be considerably weaker but especially against the pass.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Johnny Hecker (39.7 average) and kicker Justin Kahut (16 of 24 FG) both return and will try to improve their pedestrian numbers this season.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #64
Mike Riley has done a good job of keeping the team winning, where the bad years aren't too bad and the good years often exceed the team's pre-season potential. In terms of recruiting the Beavers are often near the bottom of the Pac-10. This year's only real blue chip recruit is Michael Phillip, an offensive lineman from San Bernardino. Last year's class had Quizz Rodgers, of course, but the big one that got away was DL Simi Kuli, one of the nation's top prospects who never qualified.

Oregon State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Portland State	92%	W
9/12	Sat	@	UNLV	67%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Cincinnati	66%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	48%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*Arizona State	51%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	50%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Southern California	27%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	67%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*California	36%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Washington	75%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Washington State	82%	W
12/3	Thu	@	*Oregon	44%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Not much was expected of the team last year, and they lived up to that assessment early on by losing at Stanford and getting crushed by Penn State. But when USC came to town they came alive in the first half taking a 21-0 lead. They held on to win 27-21, shocking the college football world. They very nearly gave another top team its only blemish but lost at Utah 31-28. After having faced three top ten teams in their first five games they got a break with Washington State and Washington and eventually won six straight. They looked Rose Bowl bound but Oregon cut that plan short by running all over them in a 65-38 rout. The Sun Bowl against Pitt was the opposite of that game; the Beavers won 3-0.

This year the defense won't be able to bail them out of games like the Sun Bowl, but they don't face two top ten teams in the non-conference schedule. They should start 3-0, but then they face three tossup games—Arizona, Arizona State, and Stanford—that could determine how their season goes. Three losses puts them at 6-6 for the year and possibly missing a bowl game. Winning all three means they could be 9-3, exceeding last year's record despite the concerns on defense. Right now I have them beating ASU but losing both home games but really all three are up in the air. The cumulative projection gives them 7 wins on the dot so I'll go with that. A much easier schedule compensates for being a weaker team overall, and they should nearly match their '08 record.

28. Baylor Bears (Big Twelve #6; South #5)

2008 Results:    Record: 4-8   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #49    Success: #92    Overall: #54
Baylor is a much-improved teams stuck in the worst subdivision possible.
Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #48   Adj. Rush Yards: #17    Adj. Pass Yards: #104
True freshman Robert Griffin was a dual-threat star for Baylor but got lost amidst all the superstars in the Big Twelve South. Throwing for 2,000 yards, 15 TDs and just 3 interceptions, Griffin also ran for 843 yards and 13 TDs. He has plenty of receivers to chose from: Kendall Wright (5 TDs), David Gettis, Ernest Smith, and Justin Akers and Brad Taylor at tight end. Top running back Jay Finley started half the games last year and was the leading rusher with 865 yards (7 TDs). He should be even better this year. The O-line allowed 28 sacks and returns two full-time starters plus Jason Hearvey who is still recovering from a mid-season ACL tear. A year older and still free of the burden of nationwide hype, Griffin should avoid the sophomore slump and will make people take notice of his exploits this season.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #53    Adj. Rush Def: #53    Adj. Pass Def: #91
The defensive line is shaping up well this season with two starters back, seniors Jason Lamb and Trey Bryant, plus the infusion of ex-Penn State tackle Phil Taylor. They have a Penn-State level linebacking corps, too, with starters Antonio Jones, Antonio Johnson, and #1 tackler Joe Pawalek (6 interceptions) all returning from last year. The passing defense was the team's weak spot last year, which is not good when you're in the Big Twelve. Starters Jeremy Williams and Jordan Lake, both seniors, are back and between corners Trentson Hill, Antareis Bryan, and Tim Atchison they have the equivalent of another starter returning. The secondary should improve quite a bit and the front seven looks great, so I'd expect Baylor's defense to be a lot better this year. 
Kicking Game (2 RS):  Punter Derek Epperson was great last year (44.3 average, 38.8 net) and he's back. Returning kicker Ben Parks didn't get a lot of chances, hitting 6 of 9 field goals, but he missed 5 of 44 extra points so there's certainly room for improvement.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #35
Art Briles managed to get a pretty good recruiting class, one that sits near the middle of the Big Twelve in quality, for his 2nd year. His best recruits this year are offensive linemen, among them Ivory Wade of Dickinson, TX. If this class is any indication of Briles' abilities in the future then Baylor football will have a solid program.

Baylor 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Wake Forest	50%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	67%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Northwestern State	90%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Kent State	76%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Oklahoma	18%	L
10/17	Sat	@	*Iowa State	62%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	45%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	61%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Missouri	48%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Texas	24%	L
11/21	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	60%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	46%	L
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  Baylor was a lot better in 2008 than their record showed. One problem was schedule; they faced eight bowl teams, losing to all of them. They also lost two games by a field goal and one by a touchdown. They beat all the bad teams on their schedule convincingly and lost to all the good ones, which puts them somewhere in between, not as bad as a 4-8 record normally would indicate.

This year Baylor plays essentially the same schedule as last year so it will be easy to gauge their improvement. Can they really go from losing to Wake Forest at home 41-13 to beating them on the road? Seems unlikely, but maybe they can steal one at Missouri, or at home against Texas Tech or even Oklahoma State to keep them on track for a 7-5 year.

The cumulative projection has them just under 6.5 wins, so either way they should be bowl eligible. With big improvements on offense and defense and the possible emergence of Griffin as a superstar, a breakthrough year is possible for the Bears but it will likely have to wait a year or two for the rest of the Big Twelve to lose a bit of its edge.

29. Clemson Tigers (ACC #5; Atlantic #2)     Polls: AP #34, USA/Coaches #36

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Nebraska 26-21 (Gator)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #25    Success: #39    Overall: #29
The Tigers approach 2009 with very lowered expectations.
Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #53   Adj. Rush Yards: #87    Adj. Pass Yards: #70
Last year's skill players didn't live up to their billing. Cullen Harper, so efficient in '07, threw 14 interceptions to his 13 TDs in '08. James Davis and C.J. Spiller threatened to rush for 1,000 yards each but neither came close. Receiver Aaron Kelly was several hundred yards shy of his 1,000 yard output from '07 either. Of those players only Spiller (629 yards, 7 TDs) is back, taking over the starting running back spot and hoping to get more than the 9 carries per game he was allotted in 2008. Redshirt freshman Kyle Parker has been named the starter; coach Dabo Sweeney claims Parker throws as well as the best NFL quarterbacks but backup Willie Korn will still play in every game. Returning at receiver is Jacoby Ford (710 yards, 4 TDs) and TE Michael Palmer (3 TDs), whom along with Spiller are all that's left of the top six pass catchers from last year. The offensive line, so maligned last year, should be far better with essentially five starters back. The Wall Street Journal's piece on team success being linked to returning starters on offensive line was criticized with this year's Clemson team in mind. Point taken, but is there any doubt that Clemson's line should improve dramatically this year? I think Spiller will have a great year and Parker will face far less duress than Harper did last year when the line allowed 34 sacks.
Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #12    Adj. Rush Def: #32    Adj. Pass Def: #22
The defense did its job last year. After the Alabama game they only let one team score more than 20 points the rest of the regular season. The D-line is solid; one starter is gone from the front four as Jarvis Jenkins, Ricky Sapp, and Kevin Alexander return and part-time starter Da'Quan Bowers becomes full-time at end. At linebacker all three starters return but DeAndre McDaniel moves (back) to the secondary, leaving Kavell Connor (#1 tackler on the team last year) and Brandon Maye as the two returnees. McDaniel joins returnees Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor (4 interceptions each) while Chris Clemons (2 int) and Michael Hamlin (6 int) depart. The passing defense should remain sound while the rushing defense ought to be restored to its usual top 25 quality.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The kicking game is one of the bigger area of concern going into the season. Jimmy Maners is gone at punter after averaging 40.5 yards a punt; the job falls to Dawson Zimmerman who punted earlier in the year but averaged only 38.5. Kicker Mark Buchholz hit 15 of 21 field goals, and redshirt freshman Spencer Benton is likely to take over.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #55
Dabo Sweeney took over Clemson in the middle of a fractuous year, and it's understandable that his first signing class ranks so much lower than last year's top 10 group. There wasn't a huge dropoff in quality, mainly quantity—Clemson signed only half as many players this year. Quarterback Tajh Boyd is nearly the equivalent of anyone from last year's class, which includes new starting QB Parker. Last year's class also boasted defensive lineman Bowers among other standouts. No one's expecting Sweeney to match that class but his second year on the trail will be watched. Sweeney is basically learning on the job and admits as much, saying that he tried to micromanage too much last year and will be delegating more in the future.

Clemson 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Middle Tennessee St.	73%	W
9/10	Thu	@	*Georgia Tech	44%	L
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	58%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	TCU	49%	L
10/3	Sat	@	*Maryland	65%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	57%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	47%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	Coastal Carolina	96%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Florida State	50%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*North Carolina State	56%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	65%	W
11/28	Sat	@	South Carolina	56%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2009 Season Outlook  Clemson was in nearly everyone's top 10 to start the season. Everyone was wrong (SportsRatings put them #11—still wrong). The first game vs. Alabama demonstrated that there was something very wrong with the offense, and it wasn't just Terry Tommy Bowden giving C.J. Spiller *two* carries the entire game. They lost 34-10, and after three uninspiring wins they lost three more, scoring 17, 7, and 17. Bowden was fired after the middle game, a 12-7 loss to Wake Forest. Sweeney took over and the team won four of its last five to go a disappointing but respectable 7-5 before losing a tight bowl game to Nebraska. (Here's where we brag that we picked the exact final score).

Now that everyone's excluding Clemson from the top 25, they might just have a pretty darn good year. The ACC is still full of parity. The offensive line *has* to be better. Spiller's back, and QB Parker looks like he could be the real deal. If anything the defense will be better. And Sweeney may be no genius but he had the team playing better than Bowden last season. The Tigers shouldn't be expected to win their division but they should do well, at least matching last year's record and probably a game or two better. Even the losses slated for them here could be close games. Might Clemson overachieve in '09 as much as they underachieved last year?

30. Miami Hurricanes (ACC #6; Coastal #4)     Polls: AP #35, USA/Coaches #33

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Lost to Cal 24-17 (Emerald)  Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #35    Success: #33    Overall: #34
We'll know a lot about this year's 'Canes after the first four games.
Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #30   Adj. Rush Yards: #60    Adj. Pass Yards: #82
There's been surprisingly little buzz or news out of Miami in the pre-season, save for the surprise transfer of two more quarterbacks; last year of course ended with Robert Marve's transfer and the acrimony that followed. But Jacory Harris, last season's backup, is a better QB anyway: He had a better completion percentage (61% to 55%), more TDs (12 to 9) and fewer interceptions (7 to 13); they ran equally well, each with over 100 yards and 2 TDs. Harris will again throw to the top four receivers from last year, including Aldarius Johnson and tight end Dedrick Epps, who has recovered well from an ACL tear. The running back tandem of Graig Cooper (841 yards) and Javarris James is back, but James is injury-prone and Cooper got hurt as I was writing this and is wearing an immobilizing boot (supposedly it's "nothing.") The offensive line returns three starters so if the running backs are healthy the offense should improve across the board.
Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #43    Adj. Rush Def: #61    Adj. Pass Def: #50
The defensive line will have great depth this year. Starters Steven Wesley (end) and Joe Joseph (tackle) are back but neither is likely to start this year ahead of the likes of Eric Moncur (back for a 6th after injury last season) and Marcus Forston. At linebacker top tackler Glenn Cook is gone but #2 Sean Spence and Darryl Sharpton return. The secondary is deep as well. As in the front four, the two players that started the most games last season—Chavez Grant and JoJo Nicolas—won't start at corner and safety ahead of half-time starter Brandon Harris and Randy Phillips, who is returning from an injury suffered early last season. Two ex-receivers, seniors Ryan Hill and Sam Shields, give the unit speed. Overall the defense looks marginally better but far, far deeper than it has in the recent past.
Kicking Game (2 RS): For all the hoopla about UM's quarterbacks, punter/kicker Matt Bosher was the team's best player last year and was justly named their MVP. He averaged 40.3 yards per kick (36.2 net) and made an amazing 18 of 20 field goals in 2008 while handling kickoffs as well. He returns for his junior year.
Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #22
Randy Shannon has had an interesting tenure so far. He seems frustrated that the team hasn't instantly turned back into the powerhouses that he played for back in the day. His hard-ass reputation with players was lauded at first but has drawn some fire when it's been put into practice; some think he wasn't lenient enough with Marve, for example, and that he missed an opportunity with recruit Bryce Brown. Brown, the #1 recruit, period, in 2009, was set to come to Miami but dealing with his "advisor" soured the University on him. Details are sketchy, but Brown may not have liked what offensive coordinator Mark Whipple was planning, and Shannon didn't want to play ball with Brown's de facto agent, which may be a good thing. But Brown ended up at Tennessee where evidently Lane Kiffin didn't mind kissing the agent's ass. Shannon's 3rd UM class is still top 25 in quality and about 3rd in the ACC, though nothing like last year's top five class. Among the half-dozen-plus blue chips this year the standout is Ray Ray Armstrong, a defensive back from Sanford, Florida who will augment an already-deep secondary.

Miami 2009 schedule & forecast
9/7	Mon	@	*Florida State	43%	L
9/17	Thu	vs.	*Georgia Tech	50%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Virginia Tech	44%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	Oklahoma	24%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	Florida A&M	90%	W
10/17	Sat	@	Central Florida	63%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Clemson	53%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	49%	L
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	64%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*North Carolina	41%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Duke	69%	W
11/28	Sat	@	South Florida	53%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 6-6

2009 Season Outlook  In Shannon's first year, the 'Canes stood 5-3 but lost the last four. In '08 they were 7-3 and knocking on the door of a conference title, but lost their last two.

2008 started with questions about how much better the team would be than in '07. The 52-7 win over Charleston Southern proved nothing. Losing to Florida just 26-3 was good evidence but inconclusive at the time. They beat Texas A&M again. Two close losses left them 2-3, and a 20-14 home win over UCF looked sloppy. They traveled to much-improved Duke, a team that has come so close to beating them recently. The Blue Devils led 24-14 late and the season was in danger, but the Canes rallied for a blowout win, 49-31. From there Miami won three close ACC contests and stood at the 7-3 mark overall. But they couldn't handle Georgia Tech's option at all and lost to N.C. State the next week. They played fairly well but erratically in the loss to Cal in the Emerald Bowl.

The four-game stretch that opens the 2009 campaign—FSU, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma—will mostly likely put the 'Canes into a 1-3 or 0-4 hole. After that it gets better but according to my numbers it's a 7-5 or 6-6 season, counting favorites or cumulative projections. But this includes two very close games—Georgia Tech at home and Wake Forest on the road—both of which they could easily win. So an 8-4 year is a couple bounces of the ball away. That's why the first four games are so significant. If Miami emerges at 2-2 the season looks very promising. Even 0-4 leads to bowl eligibility, so anything better than that is actually a good start. And my gut feeling is the Miami gets nine wins this year so I suppose they'll have to go 8-4 and win their bowl game.