2009 Pre-season Rankings - #23 to #25: LSU, Kansas, Virginia Tech

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #23 to #25. To see the full list, click here.

23. Louisiana State Tigers (SEC #4; West #3)     Polls: AP #11, USA/Coaches #9

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Georgia Tech 38-3 (Chick-Fil-A)   Poll finish: AP#28 USA#28
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #34    Success: #40    Overall: #33
After a disappointing year did LSU find their future in the bowl win?

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #26   Adj. Rush Yards: #34    Adj. Pass Yards: #61
The LSU offense, so sputtering in 2008, looks to be in pretty good shape in '09. After struggling through most of the year with Jarrett Lee at the helm (14 TDs, 16 int) Jordan Jefferson took over and led a huge win over Georgia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A bowl. With both QBs back the Tigers have a running threat (Jefferson) and an experienced backup as Lee was showing improvement before he was injured. But the key returnee this year is Charles Scott, who had 18 rushing touchdowns and over 1,200 yards. Top receiver Brandon LaFell (929 yards, 8 TDs) is back with tight end Richard Dickson (5 TDs). Though they lose 1st team all-American Herman Johnson three starters—Joseph Barksdale, Ciron Black, and Lyle Hitt—are back on the offensive line. It may not be the best offense in the country but it should be better and more consistent that last year's.

Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #58    Adj. Rush Def: #13    Adj. Pass Def: #82
The defensive line loses two full-time starters and two half-time starters. Only Charles Alexander returns, but backup Rahim Alem had 8 sacks and was 1st team all-SEC while Al Woods and Levarius Levingston are experienced upperclassment. LSU essentially ran a 4-2-5 last year with 2 linebackers starting most games but is in a true 4-3 this year. They lose one starter at linebacker but part-time starters Perry Riley and Kelvin Sheppard are back; Riley started 9 games and Sheppard 5 but they ended up the #3 and #2 tacklers on the team. Moving in from the secondary is Harry Coleman, meaning the three top tacklers from last year will be in the linebacking corps though Coleman will be a backup. The secondary returns starters at three positions in the now-four man unit. They lose Coleman and Curtis Taylor, but Chris Hawkins (3 int) returns at one corner; Jai Eugene and Patrick Peterson at the other corner; and Chad Jones and Danny McCray at free safety. The LSU defense has a lot of good players to move around if needed and the area with the most losses—the defensive line—has strong backups moving in. Overall the defense returns nearly all of the 2nd string so there is depth, too.

Kicking Game (0 RS):  Brady Dalfrey (40.1 average) and Colt David (16 of 21 FG) are gone; Josh Jasper will add placekicking to his kickoff duties and another junior, Derek Helton, takes over as punter.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #3
Les Miles is a controversial head coach, not because of what he does but because of what he is: a head coach that wins games. The controversy is whether he's any good or not, or just inherits good situations and wins through recruiting. He certainly turned Oklahoma State around, one way or another. He did inherit a lot of talent at LSU but in the 2007 national championship season he made some gutsy calls that resulted in wins, particularly the 4th down calls against Florida. The alleged "0:01 touchdown pass" against Auburn has been used to criticize him without noting that he had a timeout left and there were 4 seconds on the clock in reality—more than enough time to kick a winning field goal if the pass had been incomplete.

Regardless of anything else, he's a good recruiter, and this year's class underscores that. It's among the best in the country, with consensus elite players including in-state recruit Rueben Randle at wide receiver, and two Houston recruits, QB Russell Shepard and defensive back Craig Loston, the latter just having received clearance. Attrition often takes its toll, especially in the SEC, and that's kept the class from being #1. Last year, one of the Tigers' top recruits, DeAngelo Benton, failed to qualify for the 2nd straight year and somehow ended up at Auburn.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year the writing was on the wall when the schedule came out. Even though SportsRatings had LSU at #12 (they were #7 and #6 in the national polls) we noted that they probably wouldn't finish the year in the top 25 with four losses. As it turned out LSU was worse than expected but ended up in the same situation. They looked impressive in beating Appalachian State 41-13, North Texas 41-3, and even beating Auburn at the time still meant something. They were destroyed by Florida but won a tight game with South Carolina to stand 5-1. The fact that the Troy game got moved, I think, helped them avoid getting exposed until the 2nd half of the season. Crushed by Georgia, they still played Alabama tight (losing in overtime) so they remained in good graces. The first half of the Troy game underscored how poor they really were. They rallied, incredibly, for the win but subsequent losses to Mississippi (31-13) and a poor Arkansas team showed they were paper Tigers last season. A surprisingly dominant win over Georgia Tech—with Jefferson at the helm and playing a lot better than he did against Arkansas—gave hope for the 2009 season.

LSU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	Washington	70%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	58%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Lafayette	75%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	71%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Georgia	47%	L
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Florida	12%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	61%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	Tulane	87%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Alabama	35%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	Louisiana Tech	76%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Mississippi	35%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	63%	W
Favored: 8-4   Projected: 7-5

This year the schedule is tough again. They go on the road to Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi and face Florida at home. All four look like losses though the Georgia game is close. All of their wins, however, look pretty solid, so an eight-win regular season is practically guaranteed (thus disregard the overly-conservative cumulative projection). I think it's going to be another year of LSU being overrated at the start of the year but they are a lot better than last year's team and won't suffer any blowout losses this time around (except possibly Florida). I don't think they'll be in the national title equation at the end of the year, nor even the SEC championship game, but they should remain in the top 25.

24. Kansas Jayhawks (Big Twelve #5; North #1)     Polls: AP #25, USA/Coaches #26

2008 Results:    Record: 8-5   Bowl: Beat Minnesota 42-21 (Insight)   Poll finish: AP #37, USA #37
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #26    Success: #47    Overall: #32
The Jayhawks seek to build on their best back-to-back seasons in over half a century.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #19   Adj. Rush Yards: #74    Adj. Pass Yards: #12
Todd Reesing did it again for the Jayhawks last year—3,888 yards and 32 TDs—though he had quite a few more interceptions (13) than he did in '07 (just 7). The passing game actually improved with the help of two 1,000 yard receivers, Dezmon Briscoe (15 TDs) and Kerry Meier (8 TDs). That trio is back, though Briscoe caused a scare during the spring by not having his academics in order. Johnathan Wilson adds another target as does starting running back Jake Sharp (863 rushing yards, 12 TDs), the #4 pass catcher from last year. Besides Sharp, the many other running backs didn't produce a lot and caused the rushing offense to lag last year, making the team even more dependent on the pass and thereby more predictable. It might not be any better this year either, as #3 back Jacques Crawford left the program, and the offensive line returns just two starters, Jeff Spikes and Jeremiah Hatch, both sophomores. The O-line will be very young and this will present a challenge for the rest of the offense, which is loaded, in reaching its potential.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #59    Adj. Rush Def: #57    Adj. Pass Def: #68
The decline in the running game was only one reason Kansas regressed from its 2007 team. The other was the defense, which was solid in 2007 but earned mixed reviews in '08. This season the defensive line loses one starter, returning four players that combined for the three other starts: Jake Laptad (7 sacks), Caleb Blakesley, Jamal Greene and Richard Johnson. This should boost the rushing defense back toward its 2007 number. However, all three starters at linebacker are gone, including last year's #1 tackler Jake Holt who had 10 sacks. The passing defense fell from #38 to #68 after losing Aqib Talib, but this year the secondary should rebound as they return five players who essentially cover all four slots from last year: Darrell Stuckey (5 interceptions), Justin Thornton, Chris Harris, Phillip Strozier, and Daymond Patterson. As the team is playing more 4-2-5 these days it's good to have all that experience, and it covers for the linebacking corps' losses. Still, while the front line is filled, as is the secondary, there's a big gap in the middle where the team's #1, #3, and #4 tacklers from last year will be missed.

Kicking Game (2 RS): Alonso Rojas is an adequate punter (40.7 average) while Jacob Branstetter did a pretty good job (51/52 PATs, 9 of 12 FG) considering how dire the placekicking situation appeared in the summer of '08. Both are back this season.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #30
Mark Mangino built this program up over his seven years here and wants to see it continue to thrive. This year's recruiting class is a step in the right direction. Ranking about par for the Big Twelve, well over half its players are ranked above average, and that's not taking into account Mangino's eye for underrated recruits. Texan Prinz Kande, a defensive back, is one blue chip standout, while juco DE Quintin Woods may break the starting lineup this year.

2009 Season Outlook  After 2007's magical season '08 was bound to be a bit of a downer. Instead of starting 11-0 the Jayhawks lost a nail-biter at South Florida in game #3. They were 5-1 when they faced Oklahoma and Texas Tech back-to-back in what was a much tougher schedule than they had in '07. Both teams blew them away, particularly Tech who rolled up 63 points on the Jayhawks in Lawrence. It seemed that Kansas would finish the season out losing to any ranked team on their slate, but even Nebraska got into the act, besting KU 45-35 and getting revenge for the previous year's 76-39 beatdown. Texas beat them 35-7 and they stood 6-5 going into the game against Missouri, the only team to best them in 2007. This time the Jayhawks prevailed 40-37, ensuring a winning season at least. A one-sided bowl win over Minnesota ended the year on a good note.

KU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Northern Colorado	92%	W
9/12	Sat	@	UTEP	62%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Duke	72%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	Southern Miss	62%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	71%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Colorado	61%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma	27%	L
10/31	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	41%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Kansas State	62%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Nebraska	63%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Texas	19%	L
11/28	Sat	N	*Missouri	54%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

The 2009 season starts off with six games that should all be clear victories; if they're 5-1 then the team that beats them might be a big surprise this year. If they're 4-2, then KU will be the surprise—on the downside. The tough games begin with Oklahoma, then on the road to play Texas Tech. Tech won't be as good as last year and Kansas is better, but the Jayhawks lost by 42 points at home and they haven't closed the gap that much. Weeks later they go on the road against Texas, another probable loss. Finally, the neutral field Missouri game is a close game, maybe their only one this year. I take that back—the Texas Tech game will be really close this year, too; it only makes sense. College football sense.

Based on the numbers I think 9-3 is about the only way they can finish, unless they lose to Missouri. The 7-5 cumulative projection is a worst-case scenario that would surprise me. But interestingly, despite being the best team in the Big Twelve North, they face three killer teams from the South that might ruin their chances for being in the conference championship game. They might beat Missouri only to see the Tigers advance! But right now it looks like they'll win the tiebreaker to compete for the Big Twelve title and get spanked again by one of the South squads. If they can manage an upset, though, they'll be in their second BCS game in three years. Quite a change from just a few seasons ago...

25. Virginia Tech Hokies (ACC #4; Coastal #3)     Polls: AP #7, USA/Coaches #7

2008 Results:    Record: 10-4   Bowl: Beat Cincinnati 20-7 (Orange)   Poll finish: AP #15; USA #14
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #29    Success: #12    Overall: #23
The Hokies lost Darren Evans for the year; how will it affect their chances in the ACC?

Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #62   Adj. Rush Yards: #26    Adj. Pass Yards: #115
The news of Darren Evans' ACL tear surprisingly didn't affect their standing in the AP pre-season poll (or didn't they vote after it happened? I don't know). Evans' 1,265 yards and 11 TDs were a big part of Virginia Tech's offense last year. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is the other big part, accounting for another 738 rushing yards and 7 TDs and passing for 1,036 yards and 2 TDs while sharing time with Sean Glennon (graduated). Taylor's been changing his throwing motion to improve his passing numbers and it's a good thing as he'll be more important to the offense than ever before without Glennon and Evans around. Luckily the top five receivers are back, including Jarrett Boykin, Danny Coale, and tight end Greg Boone. The offensive line returns three starters after allowing 42 sacks in 2008. Although #3 rusher (behind Evans and Taylor) Kenny Lewis is back most foresee true freshman David Wilson getting the starting tailback nod. Without Evans the prospects for overall improvement in the offense diminish, though it means Taylor will have an even bigger year and has to remain unhurt.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #11    Adj. Rush Def: #16    Adj. Pass Def: #28
The defense and special teams have been the heart and soul of Virginia Tech football, and last year the defense did the job again, compensating for an offense that scored typically in the low 20s. The excellent rushing defense could be even better in 2009 with three starters returning to the front four: tackles John Graves and Cordarrow Thompson and end Jason Worilds (8 sacks plus 10.5 tackles for loss). At linebacker the Hokies lose their two top tacklers, Purnell Sturdivant and Brett Warren. But it's not all bad news as Cam Martin returns at the "whip" position and his backup, Cody Grimm, was the team's #3 tackler and had 7.5 sacks. Both are seniors and apparently there's no way to get them both into the starting lineup which would be ideal. The secondary returns three starters, Kam Chancellor, Dorian Porch, and Steven Virgil and should be good again. They'll miss Macho Harris' 6 interceptions but Virgil had as many last year. Overall the defense looks strong in every area and should continue to be the team's rock.

Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Brett Bowden (40.4 average) returns but kicker Dustin Keys (23 of 29 FG) is gone. Senior Matt Waldren, a transfer from Penn State, is his replacement.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #36
Frank Beamer has become an elder statesman in the coaching ranks, entering his 23rd year. He emphasizes special teams and defense and it shows, with blocked kicks famously leading to several wins over the years for the Hokies. The recruiting classes have become consistently good, in the middle to upper part of the ACC. Last year's class was particularly good but attrition and academic issues wore it down considerably. This year hasn't seen that attrition yet. All of this year's consensus blue chips are in-state recruits. Tight end Logan Thomas from Lynchburg is the most heralded with receiver D.J. Coles of Fork Union not far behind, but after Evans' injury David Wilson from Danville will easily be the most important newcomer.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year began with a game decided by a blocked punt, but the Hokies were on the other side for once as East Carolina shocked them 27-22. They began the task of re-establishing themselves as a noted power and reeled off five straight victories. None was easy due to the team's sputtering offense. Just before the season began Beamer announced that Tyrod Taylor would redshirt, but after the ECU loss that idea was quickly abandoned. Lack of offense caught up to them in losses to Boston College, FSU, and Miami but they were good enough to beat Maryland, Duke, and Virginia down the stretch due to the defense holding those teams to a total of 30 points. For the 2nd straight year they avenged a loss to Boston College by trouncing the Eagles in the ACC championship game. Sent to the Orange Bowl, it was their typical performance: just 20 points on offense but great defensive work in holding the Bearcats to 7.

Virginia Tech 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	N	Alabama	38%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Marshall	71%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Nebraska	63%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	56%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Duke	65%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	60%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Georgia Tech	45%	L
10/29	Thu	vs.	*North Carolina	50%	W
11/5	Thu	@	East Carolina	56%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Maryland	66%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	65%	W
11/28	Sat	@	*Virginia	60%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

This year should be much the same. The offense loses one quarterback option and its main running option but returns enough talent to compensate. The defense will be as good or better. Look for more low-scoring games with Tech winning most of them. Exceptions are likely Alabama in Atlanta, Georgia Tech on the road, and maybe North Carolina at home. The cumulative projection falls to a conservative 7-5 but I'd give them 8 or 9 regular season wins. With Evans back they'd have the chance to go 11-1 but now you have to worry about Taylor getting hurt and changing the whole complexion of the season. Regardless of what the offense does it's the defense that won most of their games last year and will continue to do so this season.