2009 Pre-season Rankings - #20 to #22: Michigan State, Georgia Tech, Ohio State

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #20 to #22. To see the full list, click here.

20. Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten #3)     Polls: AP #29, USA/Coaches #27

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Lost to Georgia 24-12 (Capital One)   Poll finish: AP#24, USA#24
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #36    Success: #34    Overall: #36
The Spartans will have their best team in recent memory if they can successfully replace their quarterback and star running back.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #50   Adj. Rush Yards: #70    Adj. Pass Yards: #73
Javon Ringer redefined the word "workhorse" as it applies to running backs. He was 10 carries shy of an even 400 for the year, gaining 1,637 yards and scoring 22 touchdowns. The Spartans' next leading rusher had 97 yards. With Ringer gone there's an obvious hole in the offense, and with quarterback Brian Hoyer (2,400 yards, 9 TDs) gone there's another. The latter should be easier to fill, as Kirk Cousins did quite well last year (32 of 43 attempts) in limited action and Hoyer drew mixed reviews anyway. Also competing is sophomore Keith Nichol, a transfer from Oklahoma. Receivers are plentiful at MSU this year, with top gainers Mark Dell, Blair White, B.J. Cunningham, and tight end Charlie Gantt all back. Three starters return to the offensive line. This brings us back to the running back slot. Among the contenders are last year's #2 Andre Anderson (sophomore), sophomore Ashton Leggett, redshirt freshman Caulton Ray, and true freshman Edwin Baker. It's a safe bet that whoever wins the #1 spot won't have 30 carries per game like Ringer.

Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #27    Adj. Rush Def: #41    Adj. Pass Def: #93
In MSU's 4-3 the defensive line returns two starters, Oren Wilson and Trevor Anderson who had 8 sacks. At linebacker all three starters return including #1 tackler Greg Jones and #2 Eric Gordon, with Adam Decker listed as Jones' backup. The secondary loses Otis Wiley, who led the team with 4 interceptions, but everyone else is back. Ross Weaver, Dan Fortener, and Chris Rucker all started the majority of games while Kendell Davis-Clark was injured after 5 games. Three of the four starters this year will be seniors and the other (Rucker) is a junior. The Spartan defense was stingy on points even as it allowed yardage,
but they might improve on both fronts this season.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  Punter Aaron Bates (42 yard average) and kicker Brett Swenson (22 of 28 field goals) both return.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #27
Mark Dantonio's 3rd recruiting class is a major step higher than his last one, and it ranks near the top of the Big Ten though not up to the level of Ohio State and Michigan's typical classes. Two running backs from the class (Edwin Baker and Larry Caper) may compete for the right to replace Javon Ringer this year. In fact, nearly all of those in the mix at running back are freshmen or sophomores, in other words, all recruited by Dantonio. Losing Ringer is a drag, but after what may be a transition year they'll be set at running back for several more seasons.

2009 Season Outlook  Michigan State lost a close game at Cal last year to start 0-1 but ran off six straight wins after that. Though they beat Iowa and Northwestern in that string those teams hadn't yet proven themselves like they did by the end of the season. Consequently MSU wasn't even in the top 20 at 6-1. It did create somewhat of a showdown when they hosted Ohio State. The Buckeyes played their best game of the year in crushing the Spartans 45-7. Three wins later MSU was 9-2 and had another shot at a top team; again they were crushed, this time 49-18. They made it to a January 1st bowl game though, but lost to Georgia 24-12.

Michigan State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Montana State	88%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	67%	W
9/19	Sat	@	Notre Dame	46%	L
9/26	Sat	@	*Wisconsin	57%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Michigan	67%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Illinois	50%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Northwestern	66%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	50%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Minnesota	53%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Western Michigan	76%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Purdue	60%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Penn State	50%	L
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

This year a friendly schedule gives them no certain losses and three complete tossups, meaning they should go anywhere from 8-4 to 11-1. Right now (and this may change as injury reports come in from all the teams involved) they win on the road against Illinois and at home against Iowa but lose to Penn State at home. The road game vs. Notre Dame could be their toughest contest. Even Minnesota on the road is no gimme, which is why the cumulative projection turns up 7-5.

I think the Spartans will win at least eight games, and probably nine: they'll lose to the teams that are better than they are, namely Notre Dame, Iowa, and Penn State. This means another January 1st bowl game. It might be a rematch with Georgia and this time around I think they'd win. But that's all speculation. What will matter is the quarterback and running game; if they find good answers there it could be a great year for the team.

21. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (ACC #3; Coastal #2)     Polls: AP #15, USA/Coaches #15

2008 Results:    Record: 9-4   Bowl: Lost to LSU 38-3 (Chick-Fil-A)   Poll finish: AP #22, USA #22
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #31    Success: #15    Overall: #25
Georgia Tech is to running what Texas Tech is to passing—a team with the talent to make a 1-dimensional offense work even in a BCS conference.

Offense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #39   Adj. Rush Yards: #1    Adj. Pass Yards: #118
Last year Texas Tech took its pass-happy offense to the highest level after returning nearly the entire offense and defense from the previous season. Now Georgia Tech does the same thing with the run option. All the leading ground-gainers, from "B-back" Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 yds 12 TDs, 7.0 ypc) to quarterback Josh Nesbitt (693 yds 7 TDs) and "A-backs" Roddy Jones (690 yds 4 TDs) and Lucas Cox (200 yds, 3 TDs), whatever you want to call them, they're all back. Add in receivers Demaryius Thomas (693 yards) and Tyler Melton and all of the "skill" positions are back. Coach Paul Johnson has stated a desire to pass the ball more this year; I don't understand the point, as they did just fine last year with a 1-dimensional offense. Nesbitt's numbers (44% completions, 808 yards, 2 TDs, 5 ints) don't suggest scaling up would help much, and backup Jaybo Shaw, who passed well in limited activity, is out at least the early part of the season with a broken jaw. But no matter, the run will still be the focus. The offensive line will be better in its second year of the system, plus three starters return (Dan Voss, Joseph Gilbert, and Cord Howard) while Nick Claytor and Austin Barrack finished the year in place of two injured starters (Andrew Gardner and David Brown). Somehow Johnson argues that this means the Wreck return all 11 starters, but he's a head coach not a mathematician.

Defense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #25    Adj. Rush Def: #33    Adj. Pass Def: #78
Georgia Tech's success last season owes as much or more to the defense as the offense. The defensive line was strong last year but loses Michael Johnson (9 sacks), Darryl Richard (4 sacks), and Vance Walker (3). Derrick Morgan (7 sacks) returns but the sack count and rushing defense are sure to suffer. The linebacking corps may be able to pick up the slack. Starters Kyle Jackson and Sedrick Griffin are back, and while they lose half-time starter Tony Clark, part-time starters Brad Jefferson and Anthony Barnes together had twice as many tackles as he did. The secondary gave up yardage last year but made up for it with interceptions by returnees Morgan Burnett (#1 tackler, 7 int), Rashaad Reid (3 int), Dominique Reese (3), and Mario Butler (1). This year they should be much better in holding the yardage and completion % down as well. The defense returns its top five tacklers and eight of the top nine and the only area of concern is the D-line.

Kicking Game (2 RS): Junior Scott Blair did triple duty last year. He kicked 12 of 19 field goals last year (none past the 40, however) and averaged 38.9 yards per punt, as well as handling kickoff chores. After some run-ins with head coach Johnson in spring Blair is giving up punting to concentrate on placekicking. So far reports say it's working as his leg looks stronger and more accurate. Unless Chandler Anderson or another punter proves solid I'd guess Blair ends up remaining the punter as well.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #44
Paul Johnson's 2nd class at Tech is similar to his first. Defensive lineman J.C. Lanier is perhaps the only true blue chip of the group though a few others are close. With Paul Johnson the system is more important than the personnel, which he proved at Navy. Recruiting at the service academies is tough, and the system has to be able to take any competent player and entrust him with a role. In the ACC, of course, the personnel has to be talented as well, and Johnson is beginning to show that his system can work against BCS-level defenses if he has BCS-level personnel to run it. With the success that he had last year in its first year of implementation it should be even better the second year now that it's familiar, and again I'm surprised Johnson is considering tinkering with it at all rather than just continuing to ram it down opposing team's throats. Any new familiarity those teams have with it is offset by the amount of talent that returns on offense.

2009 Season Outlook The big question was: can an option team win in a BCS conference? Can a service academy coach run his system in the ACC and do well? Some said yes. Others said no. I said, yes, but not right away, give it a year or two, especially since Georgia Tech wasn't very good in 2007. Instead, Johnson had the team winning league games right away. It was shaky at first—a 3 point win at Boston College followed by a 3-point loss at Virginia Tech—but then the Wreck won four straight. Two of the victims were Duke and Gardner-Webb, but the last one was Clemson on the road. They continued to alternate league wins and losses, losing to Virginia, beating FSU, and losing to North Carolina. The final ACC game showed how much they'd improved in running the offense as they overwhelmed Miami 41-23 to finish 5-3 in conference play. They capped the season off by beating Georgia on the road 45-42. That turned out to be the high point, though, as LSU bombarded them 38-3 in their bowl game.

Georgia Tech 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Jacksonville State	88%	W
9/10	Thu	vs.	*Clemson	56%	W
9/17	Thu	@	*Miami (Florida)	50%	L
9/26	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina	51%	W
10/3	Sat	@	Mississippi State	71%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Florida State	46%	L
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	55%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Virginia	61%	W
10/31	Sat	@	Vanderbilt	52%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Wake Forest	60%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Duke	66%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Georgia	55%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

This year most of the games look close, like they were in 2008, but Tech should win almost all of them. The loss to FSU is a tossup given to the Seminoles because they're at home, and the Miami game rates so close that the result is swung because of the fact that backup QB Shaw likely won't play. Other close games include North Carolina at home, Vanderbilt on the road, and Virginia Tech and Georgia at home. All of these make the projected result a conservative 7-5, and it's not out of the question that the Yellow Jackets regress. After all, they could have finished 4-8 last year if not for winning the close ones. They also could have been 11-1, and if they get every break this year they could be undefeated. Regardless of how the ball bounces they should be one of the many in contention for the ACC title.

22. Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten #4)     Polls: AP #6, USA/Coaches #6

2008 Results:    Record: 10-3  Bowl: Lost to Texas 24-21 (Fiesta)   Poll finish: AP #9, USA #11
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #9    Success: #21    Overall: #12
The Buckeyes try, try again for the defining win that has eluded them for years now.

Offense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #29   Adj. Rush Yards: #15    Adj. Pass Yards: #106
By installing Terrelle Pryor as the starting quarterback early last year, Jim Tressel sacrificed offensive improvement in 2008 for hopefully bigger gains in 2009. The offense had to make a big adjustment to Pryor's style and he ended with just 1,300 passing yards, but he made some big plays and was the team's 2nd leading rusher. Now with a year under his belt he's much farther along than he would have been if Todd Boeckman had started. The bad news is that the offense isn't half as loaded as it was last season. Beanie Wells is gone after an injury-hobbled '08 in which he managed 1,197 yards and 8 TDs. Top receivers Brian Robiskie (8 TDs) and Brian Hartline (4) departed as well. The offensive line is the brightest spot, where three starters—Bryant Browning, Mike Brewster, and Jim Cordle—return and are joined by Justin Boren, the infamous Michigan starter who quit when Rich Rodriguez worked him too hard in the new offense. The line should protect Pryor better this year now that they're more familiar with him. Backs Dan "Boom" Herron and Brandon Saine get the job of replacing Beanie again, but this time it's for the whole year. The offense is very dependant on Pryor and if he's injured they are in trouble.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #4    Adj. Rush Def: #25    Adj. Pass Def: #14
The defense didn't live up to expectations last year after coming back almost fully loaded. The scoring defense still ranked in the top 5, but the rushing defense plunged from #2 to #25, and the passing defense fell from #1 to #14. Another year later and they still have seven starters coming back but again lose a really big name. The defensive line is in good shape and should get the rushing defense numbers back in the top ten. Cameron Heyward, Doug Worthington, and Thaddeus Gibson (5 sacks) return on the front four with Dexter Latimore and Lawrence Wilson looking to fill the other slot. At linebacker they suffer some huge losses, however, with James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman gone. Laurinaitis, who won all the possible national linebacking awards over his tenure, was the team's top tackler (130) last year and Freeman was #2. Starter Ross Homan is back, but one expected replacement, Tyler Moeller, was lost for the season after being attacked in a bar. The secondary returns Chimdi Checkwa at corner and Kurt Coleman (4 int) and Anderson Russell at safety. They might not be able to return the passing defense to the #1 spot but it should at least remain in the top 25. With such a downgrade at linebacker it could be hard for the Buckeyes to maintain a top 10 scoring defense ranking this year.

Kicking Game (0 RS): Senior John Thoma or redshirt freshman Ben Buchanan will be the Bucks' new punter, taking over for A.J. Trapasso (41.2 average). Kicker Ryan Pretorius (15 of 19 FGs) moves on, too, leaving part-time kicker Aaron Pettrey (7 of 8, long 54) a capable replacement.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #2
As has been the case recently Ohio State ranks easily at the top of the Big Ten in recruiting and very near tops in the nation. Out of over a dozen consensus blue chips in this year's class linebacker Dorian Bell from Monroeville, PA stands out as the elite player and could see time this year. Bell's high school teammate Corey Brown is a highly-touted D-back while in-state recruit Melvin Fellows is a top-rated defensive lineman. Last year's top 10 class had more of the really big names—like Pryor—but this year is deeper. Say what you will about Jim Tressel but he can recruit. And he belied his sweater-vest conservative image by going with Pryor last year. I felt he would waste Pryor by not using him; instead he probably went too far, as the team could have used more of a transition in the offense. Already thrown off by the loss of Wells they had to go back to the drawing board when Boeckman was dumped. It seems like the USC debacle forced his hand more than he made the decision on his own. Either way, at least this year's team is better off for it.

2009 Season Outlook Last year Ohio State came loaded for bear. The defense was already the best in the country and returned almost everyone. The offense wasn't great but was certain to improve with the bulk of starters back. Add in Pryor and they should have been able to compete with anyone. Instead the offense stank and the defense regressed, leading to a beatdown by USC.

When Wells was hurt late in a 43-0 warmup over Youngstown State, everyone knew that the USC game just got a lot tougher. Who suspected that in fact the OHIO game would be tough? The Buckeyes played terribly, escaping with a 26-14 win over a team they should have beaten 50-0. The next week Pryor played quite a bit against USC but the offense stalled after the first quarter and the defense was roasted to the tune of 35-3. After that it was just a process of regrouping. As Pryor replaced Boeckman and Wells slowly came back the offense was unreliable and many games were close. Finally in a 45-7 win over Michigan State they looked like the team they were supposed to be in 2008; Wells was back, Pryor was confident. They lost a close game to Penn State which saved the world from a Rose Bowl rematch with USC. Three more solid wins and they had played their way back into a BCS bowl game. Against Texas, a team let down by being seconds away from the national title, they predictably had a close-fought game but lost 24-21. A 10-3 season but once again they lost the three big games.

Ohio State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Navy	79%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Southern California	35%	L
9/19	Sat	N	Toledo	70%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Illinois	57%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Indiana	74%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Wisconsin	64%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Purdue	59%	W
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Minnesota	59%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	New Mexico State	93%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Penn State	42%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Iowa	51%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Michigan	59%	W
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 7-5

This year Ohio State should again coast through the Big Ten, losing only the big games to the big teams. No longer the big kid on the block they'll have to earn it. They're still good enough to beat just about anybody but they're still not going to beat USC, even at home, without a miracle this season. And Penn State on the road is just too tough. The closest they'll come to winning the Big One is if they can beat Iowa. Since they play at home they've got a good shot. Beat Iowa and they could be off to another BCS bowl; lose to the Hawks and they'll land in a lesser bowl and not be outmatched this year.

If things go wrong—the offense just doesn't function, Pryor is hurt, etc—they might fall to the 7-5 cumulative projection. But there's too much talent on this team to expect that to happen of its own accord. Still I think they're not nearly as good as many pre-season polls & publications have them. For the most part they're ranked in the top ten. A year after rating them higher than almost everyone I now have them lower than almost everyone. Which can only mean they'll overachieve and beat USC, right?