2009 Pre-season Rankings - #17 to #19: Notre Dame, Florida State, Oregon

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #17 to #19. To see the full list, click here.

17. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Independent #1)     Polls: AP #23, USA/Coaches #23

2008 Results:    Record: 7-6   Bowl: Beat Hawaii 49-21 (Hawaii Bowl)   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #45    Success: #59    Overall: #48
Charlie Weis should have one of the most improved teams in the country in 2009, and a kind schedule could make it a great year.

Offense (10 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #59   Adj. Rush Yards: #96    Adj. Pass Yards: #31
The Irish offense was up and down last year after a horrendous 2007, but they ended on a high note against Hawaii and that's what we should see mostly in 2009. Jimmy Clausen (3,172 yards, 25 TDs) is developing into a real talent and if he reduces his 17 interceptions he'll have an incredible year. At receiver he's got 1,000-yarder Golden Tate (10 TDs), Michael Floyd (7 TDs), Duval Kamara, and tight end Kyle Rudolph back. The offensive line returns four starters from last year and another from '07 after improving from 58(!) sacks in '07 to just 22 last year. Expect a huge aerial assault from Clausen and Co. this year but all the top running backs return, too, including leader Armando Allen. From one of the worst in '07 to roughly average in '08, this should be one of '09's better offenses.

Defense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #38    Adj. Rush Def: #34    Adj. Pass Def: #69
The defense, too, improved greatly from '07 to '08 and finished with respectable numbers in scoring and stopping the run. The passing defense declined from being the '07 team's bright spot to below average, but that's largely because teams started using the pass against them at all—in '07 they just had to run the ball, period. The defensive line returns starters Ian Williams and Kerry Neal on what is now a true 4-3. At linebacker they lose Maurice Crum and Harrison Smith moves to the secondary, leaving Brian Smith the only returnee. With Smith at free safety and seniors Kyle McCarthy (#1 tackler) and Raeshon McNeil back and Darrin Walls returning from '07, the secondary should be solid. The Irish could maintain their rushing numbers this year while seeing an improvement in pass defense and scoring defense.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  Punter Eric Maust (41.1 average) and kicker Brandon Walker (14 of 24 FG, but 13 of his last 17) both return, but freshman Nick Tausch has won the kicking job.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #23
Whether or not you think Charlie Weis can coach, even if you don't believe in his "decided schematic advantage", he's been doing a good job recruiting lately. Though some blamed Ty Willingham for 2007—somehow—2008's mediocre year has to fall on Weis. But last year the Irish had the #1 recruiting class in the country, and this year's is in the top 25. The star of this year's class? Hawaiian Manti Te'o, whom some are pencilling in as a starter at linebacker. As for Weis' hot-seat status, this season should take care of that. Whether they actually get any wins over good teams, something that has been conspicuously missing even in the good years, is another matter, but a good season will buy him some time to let the latest recruits mature.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year was actually a pretty horrible year as Notre Dame football goes. But it was far, FAR better than 2007, and it ended on a good note, so what people come away with is the progress. But look at what happened in 2008. Notre Dame struggled at home against lowly San Diego State, with the win not even guaranteed until late in the game. They laid an egg against Michigan State and barely beat Stanford at home. They blew a big lead against North Carolina and lost. They lost a quadruple overtime game at home to Pitt, then were shut out by Boston College. They barely beat Navy which has been automatic for decades (until last year) and worst of all, they lost at home to hopeless Syracuse. Once again, USC beat them by 31 points which has become a cliché. Even their bright moments in the regular season—beating Michigan, Purdue, and Washington—were diminished as each of those teams, particularly UM and UW, were having uncharacteristically horrible years. So really, the only unmitigated highlight of the season was the bowl game where they broke the losing streak and showered the Warriors with TD passes en route to a 49-21 win.

Notre Dame 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Nevada	71%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Michigan	60%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Michigan State	54%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Purdue	60%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Washington	78%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	Southern California	37%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	Boston College	62%	W
10/31	Sat	N	Washington State	88%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Navy	80%	W
11/14	Sat	@	Pittsburgh	53%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	70%	W
11/28	Sat	@	Stanford	45%	L
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 8-4

Helping matters this year is a kind schedule, featuring both Washington teams. It's not unlike last year's schedule; only three teams are different but they lose North Carolina which is good, and they have just four road games as they move to a "7-4-1" scheduling philosophy (7 home, 4 road, and 1 neutral field game, which this year is WSU in San Antonio, TX). They have Michigan State at home instead of the road which probably makes the difference in outcome. They have USC at home, which probably doesn't make a difference, but it at least puts the upset on the table. Pitt is on the road, though, which will be difficult, but the real killer is Stanford on the road which might only be their 2nd loss of the year and could kill any national title hopes that percolate up throughout the season.

The cumulative projection gives them eight wins, being conservative as usual. Lose to both Michigan State and Pitt and that will be the case—but it's a worst case. The Irish should have nine or ten wins and this is probably the year USC wins by far less than 31 points or even loses in a huge upset (Notre Dame of course has a way of doing that). This year might be a lot like the 2005 season where the Irish went 9-2 a year after being 6-6 but were overrated because of it. That was Wies' first year, so he's finally back to where he was then. The Irish will be a good team but not a top ten team, though if they have their luck back they could end up there before bowl season.

18. Florida State Seminoles (ACC #2; Atlantic #1)     Polls: AP #18, USA/Coaches #19

2008 Results: Record: 9-4  Bowl: Beat Wisconsin 42-13 (Champs Sports)  Poll finish: AP #21, USA #23
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #20    Success: #16    Overall: #19
The Seminoles have their best team in quite a while if they can sort out the receiver situation.

Offense (7.5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #18   Adj. Rush Yards: #30    Adj. Pass Yards: #76
Last year you needed a scorecard to keep track of which players might be suspended the first few games of '08 over the cheating scandal. This year, use the back of that scorecard to keep track of FSU's top receivers. #1 Greg Carr is done with his four years; #2 Preston Parker was dismissed from the team and transferred to N. Alabama; #3 Taiwan Easterling sat out the spring with an Achilles' tendon rupture; #4 Bert Reed was suspended many times last year; #5 Corey Surrency appealed for a 6th year but was denied; #6 Rod Owens was suspended over a DUI charge; #7 Jarmon Fortson has no news, which is good news. #10 Cameron Wade was arrested for brawling in the student union and didn't show up in court, leading to a bench warrant for his arrest; and Richard Goodman (redshirted last year) was also arrested in the same on-campus fight. So those gone are: Carr, Parker, and Surrency. Back: Easterling (healed), Reed (no trouble in 2009), Owens (legal issues resolved), Fortson (no news), and Goodman (issues resolved). Unknown: Wade. I give this group 1/2 a returning starter for Easterling, who says he's full strength but with this group's luck who knows.

Now for the rest of the offense. Quarterback Christian Ponder (2,006 yards passing, 14 TDs, 4 rushing TDs) returns after a decent year where he established himself as a dangerous runner. Meanwhile last year's backup D'Vontrey Richardson is gone; he first moved to free safety then signed with the Milwaukee Brewers. Running back Antoine Smith (15 TDs last year) is gone too but Jermaine Thomas (482 yards, 7.0 average) should do well taking over. Fullback Marcus Sims was returning until he was arrested, suspended, and transferred (also to North Alabama). Tight end Caz Piurowski is back along with all five starters on the offensive line. They're young—three sophomores and two juniors—but they did well last year and should be better this year. In 2010 they might be the best in the nation.

Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #37    Adj. Rush Def: #28    Adj. Pass Def: #62
The defensive line returns two starters, Kendrick Stewart at one tackle and Budd Thacker at the other, though Justin Mincey or Moses McCray might start there instead. They'll be good enough but will miss Everette Brown and Neefy Moffett's 19(!) combined sacks. At linebacker the 'Noles lose #1 and #2 tacklers Derek Nicholson and Toddrick Verdell while Dekota Watson is back. Finally the secondary returns Patrick Robinson and Jamie Robinson but loses Myron Rolle, the team's #3 tackler and only Rhodes Scholar. With their top three tacklers gone and questions about the pass rush, linebacker play, and secondary, the defense will be down a notch overall.

Kicking Game (0.5 RS): FSU loses great kicker Graham Gano, who hit 24 of 26 field goals last year and won the Groza award. He also handled about half their punts last season, averaging 42.7 yards. The other punter, Shawn Powell, averaged 41.1 and should be an adequate replacement. At kicker true freshman Dustin Hopkins takes over; he was among the top-rated high school kickers in the nation last year.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #16
Bobby Bowden can still recruit. Despite not knowing how long he'll remain as head coach, Bowden's 2008 class was top 5 and this year's is 2nd in the ACC, with consensus super-blue chip Jacobbi McDaniel (defensive lineman) leading the way, in addition to perhaps the nation's top placekicker. Bowden will be 80 this year and still feels like coaching. It may hasten his departure, however, if he has to give up his wins from 2006 and 2007 due to the cheating scandal. Right now he's still neck-and-neck with Joe Paterno, 382 to 383, though 31 are not I-A wins. The NCAA is forcing the school to officially subtract an unknown amount of games, and FSU is appealing that ruling.

2009 Season Outlook  After two 7-6 years plagued by inconsistent play at quarterback and offense in general the Seminoles took a step in the right direction in 2008. It could have been better; without having 10 players suspended against Wake Forest (including a half dozen starters) they could have beaten the Deacs in Tallahassee instead of losing 12-3. Still, midway through the year they were 6-1 when a loss to Georgia Tech caused in part by a goal-line fumble set them back. A later loss to Boston College ended their ACC title hopes and the annual loss to Tim Tebow and Florida was 45-15 this time. They trounced Wisconsin 42-13 in the Champs Sports Bowl in one of the worst matchups of the bowl season.

FSU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/7	Mon	vs.	*Miami (Florida)	57%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Jacksonville State	88%	W
9/19	Sat	@	BYU	58%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	South Florida	64%	W
10/3	Sat	@	*Boston College	55%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	54%	W
10/22	Thu	@	*North Carolina	45%	L
10/31	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	66%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Clemson	50%	L
11/14	Sat	@	*Wake Forest	53%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	75%	W
11/28	Sat	@	Florida	6%	L
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

FSU has a tough non-conference schedule but has a good chance of starting 6-0. Boston College and Georgia Tech will be tough though, not to mention BYU on the road. But I think they can beat all those teams as well as in-state rival Miami and new rival USF at home. They face UNC on the road, though, and the Clemson road game is a possible win that I have them barely losing. Finally they'll lose to Florida once again to cap Tebow's 4-0 sweep. Of course it's an opportunity to get a huge upset but I don't see it.

The Seminoles should be 9-3, maybe 10-2 this season. But the ACC is still parity-ridden and while the cumulative projection of 7-5 might be low, they could fall back to 8-4 again. The offensive line is sound, Ponder is one year better, and there are a lot of good receivers despite the woes. The defense is a question but overall the team should be about as good as last year, yet without the early season suspensions. If they play more consistently this year they'll get the extra win(s) and be in the ACC title game.

19. Oregon Ducks (Pac-10 #4)          Polls: AP#17, USA/Coaches #14

2008 Results:    Record: 10-3   Bowl: Beat OK State 42-31 (Holiday)   Poll finish: AP #10, USA #9
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #12    Success: #17    Overall: #14
The Ducks will still be good but the offensive line is questionable and success in the Pac-10 hard to come by.

Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #3   Adj. Rush Yards: #3    Adj. Pass Yards: #48
Oregon's offense was built on the run last year, with Jeremiah Johnson and LaGarrette Blount both surpassing 1,000 yards and scoring 30 combined touchdowns. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli added 718 yards and 10 TDs along with his 13 passing TDs (5 int). Blount and Masoli are back, insuring a strong running attack but it won't be as overpowering as last season's. Aside from Johnson's absence, another reason for the downgrade is that only one starter (C.E. Kaiser) and two part-time starters (Bo Thran and Jordan Holmes) are back on the offensive line. Receiver Jeff Maehl and tight end Ed Dickson are back to help improve the passing numbers if they go that route, but expected starter Chris Harper transferred as did backup QB Justin Roper. Without last year's dominant O-line Masoli and Blount will find things a bit more difficult.

Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #72    Adj. Rush Def: #48    Adj. Pass Def: #112
The defense had some problems last year but was generally bailed out by the productive offense. They might be needed a lot more to keep the Ducks in games, but there are areas of concern. The defensive line loses three starters including Nick Reed who had 13 sacks last year, 1/3 of the team's total. End Will Tukuafa (7.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss) is the only starter back. At linebacker things look pretty good with Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews returning. The secondary needs to improve as the Ducks gave up metric tonnes of yardage last season. They lose #3 and #4 tacklers Patrick Chung and Jairus Byrd (5 interceptions) but #1 tackler T.J. Ward returns with Walter Thurmond (5 int). The defense returns all but a few members of the 2nd and 3rd string which helps a lot, but the D-line and secondary are concerns.

Kicking Game (1.5 RS):  Oregon used two placekickers last season, Matt Evensen (35/37 PAT, 11 of 18 FG) and Morgan Flint (28/28, 7 of 9). Flint is back but didn't make a field goal over 40 yards last year. Josh Syria averaged 42.5 yards per punt last year and departs; he'll be replaced by either freshman Jackson Rice or junior Tim Taylor.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #24
With the smooth transition between Mike Belotti and Chip Kelly (who moved up from offensive coordinator) the recruiting didn't miss a beat, ranking 4th in the Pac-10. Two highly-touted receivers, Dionte Jackson and Tyrece Gaines, could help shore up this year's depleted corps.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year I picked Oregon #10 in the nation despite losing Dennis Dixon. For a while it didn't look to be the case as they struggled to beat Purdue then lost at home to Boise State. Two games later they were competitive at USC into the 2nd quarter but the Trojans got 24 quick points and rolled 44-10. The offense continued to improve but couldn't function against better teams, losing to Cal 26-16. Finally at Oregon State they hit their stride, scoring 65 in the win. They were able to replicate that success against Oklahoma State as well, winning 42-31. By the end of the season they actually had made it to my predicted spot, but it took a late push by the amazing offense. They gave up an unhealthy amount of points all season, though.

Oregon 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	@	Boise State	45%	L
9/12	Sat	vs.	Purdue	67%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Utah	58%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*California	44%	L
10/3	Sat	vs.	*Washington State	91%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*UCLA	62%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Washington	71%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Southern California	36%	L
11/7	Sat	@	*Stanford	45%	L
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	60%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Arizona	43%	L
12/3	Thu	vs.	*Oregon State	56%	W
Favored: 7-5   Projected: 7-5

This year the Ducks aren't going to be a top ten team, and despite being a top 25 team they face many challenges playing in an improved Pac-10. Though they face Cal and USC at home, that probably won't help. And they get Stanford and Arizona—two of the most-improved teams—on the road. Add in a game at Boise State—who beat the Ducks in Eugene last year—and it's looking like a 7-5 season.

On the plus side all of the Ducks' wins look pretty dependable, so a good performance could lead to some upsets, though I wouldn't count on it. The running game that formed the heart of their offense is going to see a lot less production with the inexperienced O-line, and the defense won't be any better than it was last year. Oregon should be bowl-eligible no problem but they won't likely be in the race for the Pac-10 title.