2009 Pre-season Rankings - #14 to #16: TCU, Stanford, Boise State

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams from #14 to #16. To see the full list, click here.

14. TCU Horned Frogs (Mountain West #1)     Polls: AP #17, USA/Coaches #17

2008 Results:    Record: 11-2   Bowl: Beat Boise State 17-16 (Poinsettia)   Poll finish: AP #7, USA #7
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #7    Success: #10    Overall: #9
TCU won't sneak up on anybody this year, and Oklahoma's not on the schedule.

Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #28   Adj. Rush Yards: #18    Adj. Pass Yards: #68
Andy Dalton improved into a consistent quarterback for the Frogs last year with 11 TDs and just 5 interceptions while still rushing for 432 yards and 8 touchdowns. Leading receiver Jimmy Young, just shy of 1,000 yards last year, returns, but that's almost it for pure starters at the skill positions. Receiver Bart Johnson started some games, as did running backs Joseph Turner (#1 gainer at 577, 11 TDs) and Ryan Christian (#2 in receptions with 30), and they're all back so there is talent to work with. The offensive line returns Marcus Cannon (aptly named at 350 lbs.) and Marshall Newhouse, as well as Kyle Dooley who started several games before being injured last year. The ground game was their strength last year and with six of the top seven gainers back it should be strong again if the O-line comes through.

Defense (4 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #3    Adj. Rush Def: #1    Adj. Pass Def: #5
The real strength of the team last season was defense. With one of the very best in the country, the Horned Frogs were tops in adjusted rushing defense and not far behind in passing. The former, however, is likely to suffer as only one starter returns in the front six of the 4-2-5. The D-line loses three starters who had a total of 10.5 sacks but Jerry Hughes who had 15 sacks and forced six fumbles returns (the team had 43 sacks total). They lose both starting linebackers, #1 tackler Jason Phillips and #3 Robert Henson, but backup Darryl Washington was #4 with 63 tackles. The 5-man secondary loses Stephen Hodge and Steven Coleman (3 int) but with safety Tejay Johnson and corners Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders they're in good shape; the three combined to break up 32 passes last year. Overall, with the top three tacklers gone and so many missing up front, TCU will be hard-pressed to repeat their extraordinary 2008 performance, but the backups are capable and they could still have a top ten defense.

Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Anson Kelton (41.3 average) returns as does kicker Ross Evans, who hit 16 of 20 field goals but strangely missed 6 extra points.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #53
Gary Patterson has coached the team since 2001 and the Frogs have had a great decade, winning 10 or more games five times. TCU's 2009 class ranks near the top of the Mountain West, right up there with BYU and Utah and a big step up from last year's class. Malcolm Williams, a juco defensive back who first signed with Oklahoma, is expected to start at safety.

2009 Season Outlook  Some non-BCS teams go through phases where no matter how good they are they aren't taken seriously. Only by the end of the year are college football fans saying "Yeah, that team is tough!" Last year was such a year for TCU. They won four games and barely had cracked the top 25 when they lost to Oklahoma 35-7. This turned out to be a season-low in points for Oklahoma (until the Florida game), and in Norman, too. The Frogs won two more games and despite being 6-1 with a loss to the former #1 team they were unranked. But beating BYU started to change things. They won convincingly, 32-7, and soon they were 9-1 and ranked #12. They lost at Utah 13-10 after leading for 99% of the game and fell to #15. After wins over Air Force and the Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl their résumé was fantastic: 11-2 with wins over the #11 and #25 team with losses only to the #2 and #5 teams. They finished 7th in the final AP poll.

TCU 2009 schedule & forecast
9/12	Sat	@	Virginia	63%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Texas State	91%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Clemson	51%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	Southern Methodist	84%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Air Force	67%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Colorado State	80%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*BYU	60%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*UNLV	78%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*San Diego State	81%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Utah	60%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Wyoming	78%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico	80%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 9-3

TCU should be the top BCS-buster this year. A trip to Clemson in week 4 (their 3rd game) is their main obstacle along the way and a game that is essentially a tossup. After that their toughest assignments are BYU (on the road) and Utah (at home). Both Utah and BYU will be a lot worse this year, I believe. In fact, all three are worse than last year but TCU is still a top 25 and potential top ten team; Utah might be a top 25 team at best, and BYU probably won't be. So even those two games should be heavily in TCU's court.

I don't know if I think the Frogs can do it. The cumulative projection gives them a strong 9 wins, which is akin to saying they'll lose their three toughest games. I don't think that will happen, but with the offensive and defensive lines both less effective than they were last year I'm not sure they can make it the whole year without a misstep. I said the same about Utah last year but they did it—barely. TCU will probably go 11-1 this year. Even 10-2 seems low for how much better than their competition they should be. But regardless, people should be paying attention to this team from week one, not jumping on the bandwagon around bowl time. Make that week two, since they don't play on week one. TCU fans will have to watch football the first week dying to see their team in action. Have patience!

15. Stanford Cardinal (Pac-10 #4)       Polls: AP NR, USA/Coaches NR

2008 Results:    Record: 5-7   Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #43    Success: #56    Overall: #46
Stanford could be the biggest surprise team of 2009 after not getting a single vote in either pre-season poll.

Offense (8 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #31   Adj. Rush Yards: #19    Adj. Pass Yards: #88
Stanford had everything figured out on offense except who was going to play quarterback. Tavita Pritchard was less-than-spectacular last year with 10 TDs and 13 interceptions. Backup Alex Loukas is a better runner but played little last year and tore his ACL in the spring; he'll miss at least three games, maybe six. That leaves redshirt freshman Andrew Luck, an excellent passer who has been named the starter. He'll have leading receivers Ryan Whalen and Doug Baldwin back as the Cardinal hope to get more from their passing game. Last year's offensive success was due almost completely to the run, where Toby Gerhart had 1,136 yards and 15 touchdowns. After baseball threatened to draft him right off the team he decided to return, which is good because they lose #2 back Anthony Kimble (6 TDs). Starting fullback Owen Marecic returns along with three starters on the offensive line, and Allen Smith who started in 2006 is hoping to finally be back some time this season after being granted a 6th year. In all, if the Cardinal get good quarterback play they'll have a terrific offense as most of the 2nd string is back this year, too.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #66    Adj. Rush Def: #81    Adj. Pass Def: #76
The defense was last year's problem, but a lot of it should be solved. Seven positions are reloaded with  starters and practically all of last year's 2nd string is back, so players with experience fill almost every slot. Up front they lose just one starter, with seniors Erik Lorig and Ekom Udofia returning with Sione Fua and part-time starter Matthew Masifilo. At linebacker Clinton Snyder return while two others—Chike Amajoyi and Nick Macaluso—with experience fill the other slots. Finally the secondary loses just one starter, with Kris Evans, Sean Wiser, and #1 tackler Bo McNally back, plus 2007 starter Austin Yancy and former wide receiver Richard Sherman all in the mix. With 18 of their top 21 tacklers back Stanford should see big improvement over their lackluster 2008 numbers.

Kicking Game (1 RS):  Punter David Green averaged a respectable 39.9 yards per kick but a great 37.7 net; he's back, but kicker Aaron Zagory (14 of 17 FG) is gone. Either kickoff handler Travis Golia or freshman Nate Whitaker will take over.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #17
Stanford's 2009 recruiting class was a stunner, finishing 3rd only to the Los Angeles-area schools in the Pac 10. Coach Jim Harbough's first two classes had been good, but not this good. Loaded with blue chips, a class like this can provide a foundation for future success. Linebacker Shayne Skov is a near-consensus super blue-chip at linebacker, perhaps the class of this class, though there are many others just as touted or nearly so. Harbough has brought quite a bit of enthusiasm to Stanford and the team seems pumped up to have a great year. He's also hinted at having some players play both offense and defense this year.

2009 Season Outlook  Last year was up and down, which has been typical of Stanford's last several (losing) seasons. But at least this year there were maybe a few more "ups" than normal. They beat Oregon State in the opener, a feat that looked more impressive as the season went on, just as the loss to TCU looked less disappointing when that team finished 11-2. They just slipped past Washington, and let Notre Dame slip past them. Their best win was an upset of Arizona, 24-23, at which point they were 4-3. But they gave up close games to UCLA and Oregon, and Washington State (58-0) was the last team they beat. They showed a remarkable ability to play up or down to their competition, beating only one team by more than 13 and losing to USC by just 21.

Stanford 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	@	*Washington State	85%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Wake Forest	54%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	San Jose State	81%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	*Washington	79%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	70%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Oregon State	50%	W
10/17	Sat	@	*Arizona	45%	L
10/24	Sat	vs.	*Arizona State	61%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Oregon	55%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Southern California	31%	L
11/21	Sat	vs.	*California	46%	L
11/28	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	55%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

This year should be Stanford's best season since 2001 when they went 9-3 in the regular season. Some have written that the Cardinal could start 5-0; I think they could start 9-0. That's pushing it a bit, as Wake Forest, Oregon State, Arizona, and Oregon will be tough challenges. But only USC looks unbeatable from my vantage point, and only Arizona and Cal look like losses with Oregon State a true tossup. Even much-improved Notre Dame has to come to Palo Alto for a showdown of turnaround teams that could be one of the biggest games of the year if both have lived up to my expectations for them.

The Cardinal have some drawbacks, too. The quarterback play is still unproved, despite Luck's great spring game performance. The defense will be a lot better but let's face it, it sucked last year. And will the team be able to handle success without falling prey to upset? They have to get over the habit of playing down to their competition. The cumulative projection of 7-5 might be a safer bet. It still gets them to a bowl game, and they still have a turnaround year with their first winning season since 2001. But I'm pretty confident they'll do better than that. The key game to watch early on is Wake Forest. If they can win on the road then they'll have a great year, considering that they have seven home games this year and might win all of those. If they're 9-0 going into the USC game it will be the biggest thing to happen in Stanford football since the back to back Rose Bowl wins of '70 and '71. Can it happen?

16. Boise State Broncos (WAC #1)          Polls: AP #14, USA/Coaches #16

2008 Results:    Record: 12-1   Bowl: Lost to TCU 17-16 (Poinsettia)   Poll finish: AP #11, USA #13
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #14    Success: #9    Overall: #11
Boise State makes another run at a WAC title...and maybe another BCS bowl game.

Offense (6 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #25   Adj. Rush Yards: #80    Adj. Pass Yards: #11
By any measure Kellen Moore had a successful year in 2008 as quarterback of the Boise State Broncos. He completed 69% of his passes for close to 3,500 yards and 25 touchdowns with 10 interceptions. By the stardards of being a freshman and doing all that? He was phenomenal. Now all Moore has to do is avoid a sophomore slump. His two top receivers (Jeremy Childs and Vinny Perretta) are gone but Austin Pettis (567 yards, 9 TDs, #2 in receptions with 49) is back and the tight end slot will again be shared by Kyle Efaw and Tommy Gallarda. Three starters return on an offensive line that allowed just 13 sacks. The biggest change will be at running back, where leading rusher, three-year starter, and hook-and-ladder recipient Ian Johnson has moved on. Johnson's role on the team was diminished last year but he still managed 766 yards and 13 touchdowns. #2 back Jeremy Avery (614 yards) will take over and should do fine, but I bet he doesn't propose to a cheerleader on national tv.

Defense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #9    Adj. Rush Def: #51    Adj. Pass Def: #19
Boise State's defense was 12th in red zone defense and 6th in preventing 4th down conversions. They were also 5th in interceptions. These figures explain how a team with an average rushing defense and barely a top 20 passing defense could have a top ten scoring defense. The team is moving to a 4-2-5 scheme to further defend against the spread but only two starters return out of a front six so critical against the run. Ryan Winterswyk is the only starter back on the line and Derrell Acrey the only linebacker, and Acrey might not start in the 2-linebacker model. There will be three starters among the five D-backs, led by #1 tackler Jeron Johnson, corners Kyle Wilson (5 interceptions) and Brandyn Thompson (4 int), while George Iloka is the team's #2 returning tackler and had 4 interceptions. Those four should start the 4-back spots while the nickel slot is up for grabs. The secondary will probably be better than last year while the defense could be weaker up front.

Kicking Game (2 RS): Kyle Brotzman proved to be a much better punter than kicker as he took on both chores, averaging 45.8 yards per punt but making only 17 of 26 field goals. He was 50 of 50 in extra points, to be fair. He's back for his junior season with the Broncos.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #67
Head coach Chris Peterson has carried on the winning tradition that Dan Hawkins established before him. How do they do it? Boise State doesn't get the best recruits by a long shot, so coaching and player development is certainly a factor. Playing in the WAC doesn't hurt, either; the Broncos are the definition of a big fish in a small pond many years. That's been made clear before, in the several seasons where Boise's sole loss was to a mid-level BCS conference team. They've had years where they were a legitimate power, though, such as in 2006 when they beat Oklahoma and last year when they nearly beat TCU, another non-BCS upstart. The Broncos' recruiting is generally the best in the WAC, not every year but when sampled over many seasons. Still, it doesn't explain why the program is so successful. Did Hawkins establish such a strong program that it can sustain itself? Or was Peterson the main factor when he was offensive coordinator before taking over as coach? Or maybe it's the blue turf. Who knows. This year's most important recruit may turn out to be juco Winston Venable who could step right into the nickel spot on the defensive secondary.

2009 Season Outlook  I though last year would be one of the years where Boise State isn't really that good but has a great record. Instead it was the other kind of Bronco season, where the team actually is good and has a great record. The key game, of course, was Oregon. The Broncos upset the Ducks in Eugene and at least by the end of the season that was respect-worthy. The rest of their season, unlike the mediocre-with-great-record squads, was not littered with close calls. After the Oregon game they won every game by at least 17 points, and two by a total of 100 points. Paired in the Poinsettia Bowl with another great non-BCS team, they lost a tight game to TCU 17-16 that gave them their only loss.

Boise State 2009 schedule & forecast
9/3	Thu	vs.	Oregon	55%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Miami (Ohio)	92%	W
9/18	Fri	@	*Fresno State	67%	W
9/26	Sat	@	Bowling Green	70%	W
10/3	Sat	vs.	California-Davis	91%	W
10/14	Wed	@	Tulsa	57%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Hawaii	80%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*San Jose State	81%	W
11/6	Fri	@	*Louisiana Tech	71%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	100%	W
11/20	Fri	@	*Utah State	72%	W
11/27	Fri	vs.	*Nevada	72%	W
12/5	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	95%	W
Favored: 13-0   Projected: 10-3

As with TCU this season, Boise State should be favored in all their games. The big one comes right away as they host Oregon. While Boise is roughly of the same quality as last year the Ducks won't be as good, and since the game shifts onto the Smurf Turf the Broncos should have the edge. Get past that one and it really is—or should be—smooth sailing. Travelling to Tulsa might be a challenge, but again Tulsa is not last year's Tulsa team. No other team should present a serious test. Even in a 13-game schedule the cumulative projection gives them 10 wins; anything less than that would be tantamount to a collapse.

Using the odds for each game (which are purposefully extra-conservative, with a large amount of uncertainly built in) the Broncos have about a 2.5% chance of going undefeated over 13 games. As mentioned that's a super-conservative estimate; the real odds are likely far higher. But using that same system to compare them with TCU, we find that TCU's odds are only 1.7%. The upshot is that Boise State is about 50% more likely to end up undefeated—and therefore in a BCS bowl—than TCU, even with a 13-game schedule. This shows how relatively easy the Broncos' slate is. Since there is normally only one undefeated BCS-buster team, this bodes well for Boise's chances.

And if that's not enough, the 2010 Boise State team will almost certainly be far better. There are only four seniors on this year's team. The Broncos will likely have 10 starters back on both offense and defense. With Virginia Tech and Oregon State on the schedule, the Broncos could make a very strong argument for being not just a BCS-buster, but a BCS title game buster. Going undefeated this year would set them up in the top ten next year, in position to make it happen. But then, I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's see how this season plays out first.

Comments

[Cardinal fan]

Stanford starting 9-0??? Buddy your smoking crack!

Where can I get some!?