The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.
This installment covers teams from #10 to #13. To see the full list, click here.
| 10. Arizona Wildcats (Pac-10 #3) Polls: AP #38, USA/Coaches #49 |
2008 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat BYU 31-21 (Las Vegas Bowl) Poll finish: AP #36, USA #32
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #18 Success: #50 Overall: #21
Last year SportsRatings picked a big year for the Wildcats, and they met the low end of our expectations. This year they're picked even higher. Will they have a *real* breakthrough year in 2009?
Offense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #15 Adj. Rush Yards: #63 Adj. Pass Yards: #24
Arizona has talent back at receiver; Delashaun Dean and Terrell Turner combined for over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns, while tight end Rob Gronkowski is an NFL prospect who had 672 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. But it's not clear yet who is going to be throwing them the ball. Willie Tuitama, a four-year starter who had over 3,000 yards passing and 23 TDs last year, will no longer be behind center. The battle to replace him is between Matt Scott and Nick Foles; Scott can run, as his 188 yards on 23 carries (8.2 average) demonstrates, while Foles is a pocket-passer. Neither is standing out as exceptional so far to say the least, but coach Mike Stoops wants to declare one the starter soon. The running back position is solid: Nic Grigsby's 1,153 yards and 13 TDs insures that, and backup Keola Antolin had 10 touchdowns himself. But the offensive line has to grow up fast after losing three starters. Colin Baxter and Mike Diaz return, while Blake Kerley started the early games of '08 before an injury. Introducing a new quarterback behind a questionable line is this offense's challenge. Most of last year's 2nd and 3rd string is back for '09.
Defense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #36 Adj. Rush Def: #50 Adj. Pass Def: #20
The defense returns just six starters but the entire 2nd and 3rd string defense is back to fill the holes and add depth. Rushing defense was Arizona's weakness last year but it should improve dramatically due to a defensive line that returns almost everyone. Until Kaniela Tuipulotu's transfer to Hawaii they had everyone back 2-deep at all four positions. They still have starters Ricky Elmore, Earl Mitchell, and Brooks Reed (8 sacks), as well as Donald Horton who started part time last year. At linebacker they lose two starters including #1 tackler Ronnie Palmer, but Xavier Kelley returns and Sterling Lewis actually had more tackles than Kelley in '08 despite being a backup. The secondary returns Cam Nelson and Devin Ross (13 passes broken up, 3 interceptions) but also loses two key players. Overall the rushing defense should improve and the passing defense should still be sound. The defense loses three of its top four tacklers but only four of the top twenty, so depth of experience is no problem whatsoever. Stoops has called this his strongest defense yet.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Keenan Crier (an excellent 43.9 average) returns but kicker Jason Bondzio (14 of 16 field goals) is gone. Sophomore Alex Zendejas, nephew of NFL placekicker Tony Zendejas, is expected to take over.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #40
Mike Stoops has been on the hot seat at Arizona for a while, trying to turn around a team that hit rock-bottom in 2002. Last year was the team's first winning season in his tenure, and while the bowl win may have forestalled talk of replacement he'll have to follow it up. Adding distraction, Stoops is currently going through a divorce. This year's recruiting class isn't bad; like last year's class it sits in the middle of the pack in the Pac-10. The consensus blue chip of the group is Adam Hall, a wide receiver/defensive back from Tucson. Stoops also signed a number of other high-level players from California.
2009 Season Outlook Last season started with high expectations and almost burned out. The opening 70-0 win over Idaho was good for showing that both the offense and defense were functioning well, and they beat Toledo 41-16. But the first road trip ended with a shocking 36-28 loss to New Mexico. The Wildcats had counted on going into the Pac-10 season undefeated and already there were grumblings and Stoops' seat was the hottest it had been. Wins over UCLA and Washington put them at 4-1, but again they were upset by Stanford 24-23. A big win over Cal helped, and they played USC close but couldn't do much on offense in a 17-10 loss. Two more close losses to the Oregon teams put them at 6-5 with Arizona State left; luckily they won convincingly, 31-10, and headed to meet BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, which they also won impressively 31-21. It's hard to judge the season in retrospect. On one hand all of the team's losses were close; on the other hand, a few were to teams they should have beaten in the first place. Last year's minimum win margin was 10 points; their maximum loss margin was also 10 points.
Arizona 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Central Michigan | 70% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Northern Arizona | 89% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | @ | Iowa | 47% | L | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | *Oregon State | 52% | W | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 74% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | vs. | *Stanford | 55% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | vs. | *UCLA | 73% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 94% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | @ | *California | 41% | L | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon | 57% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | @ | *Arizona State | 56% | W | |||
| 12/5 | Sat | @ | *Southern California | 33% | L | |||
Favored: 9-3 Projected: 7-5 |
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This year's first big test comes at Iowa. If Arizona has a loss before that, then we'll know the season isn't going to be anything special. But that game and the one that follows it (at Oregon State) will set the expectations for the rest of the year. They should split the two, probably losing at Iowa. Rivals called the Iowa game "a battle between a mid-level Pac-10 team vs.[sic] a mid-level Big Ten team" which undersells both teams dramatically I think. If Arizona is 4-0 to start the season, though, fans should be very excited.
There are challenges all year long in the improved Pac-10. Beating Stanford at home will take some effort, as will Oregon. I don't expect wins at Cal or USC of course, but overall a 9-3 finish is possible. I'm giving them more close wins (4) than close losses (1) so the cumulative projection of 7-5 may come true—particularly if the Wildcats play like last year and lose the tight games, or if the quarterback(s) can't be whipped into shape which is a major potential pitfull. Still, this could be Arizona's best team in a long time and hopefully they can exceed last year's win tally.
| 11. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Big Twelve #4; South #4) Polls: AP #9, USA/Coaches #11 |
2008 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to Oregon 42-31 (Holiday) Poll finish: AP #16, USA #18
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #15 Success: #37 Overall: #15
The top ten Cowboys are stuck in a division with two top five teams. It does mean, however, that they start the year controlling their own destiny to the national championship...
Offense (7 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #10 Adj. Rush Yards: #12 Adj. Pass Yards: #34
What more can be written about Oklahoma State's dynamic trio of quarterback Zac Robinson (65%, 3,064 yards, 25 TDs, 10 int; 562 rushing yards, 8 TDs), receiver Dez Bryant (1,480 yards, 19 TDs, 2 punt return TDs), and running back Kendall Hunter (1,555 yards 16 TDs)? No more comparisons between this trio and the Gundy/Dykes/Sanders machine in 1988: this group is better. Hunter is no Barry Sanders but the other two are superior, with Robinson's running and Bryant's punt returns giving them the edge, and no one of them overshadows the others the way Sanders did in '88. Oklahoma State might not have the #1 offense in the land this year like the '88 group did, but they'll be close. What could hold them back is the lack of a strong #2 receiver. Starter DeMarcus Conner returns but had just 3 receptions last year; Brandon Pettigrew and Damian Davis depart, and Bo Bowling is likely to miss the season after felony drug charges were brought against him early this year for possession of Xanax and steroids. The offensive line is sturdy with three senior starters back including Russell Okung; they allowed just 16 sacks last year and with Hunter, Robinson, and Keith Toston (9 TDs) running the ball the rushing offense will be even stronger than last year.
Defense (5 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #41 Adj. Rush Def: #47 Adj. Pass Def: #101
The defense should be decent everywhere except the secondary. There, only Perrish Cox returns to a unit that was the defense's weak spot last year. Three starters that combined for 24 broken-up passes are gone. At linebacker the Cowboys lost Orie Lemon, the team's #2 tackler, to a fall camp knee injury but #1 tackler Andre Sexton and Patrick Lavine return. The defensive line isn't doing bad with starters Derek Burton and Ugo Chinasa back. If the secondary comes together the defense do better than their #41 finish from '08. In '89, the defense was #75 out of 105 teams, one reason why that team couldn't win the big games. This defense should be much better than that one, though having a passing defense weakness in the Big Twelve is a huge concern.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Dan Bailey was 65 of 65 on extra points and on field goals an excellent 15 of 19, with two misses outside the 50. He's back but punter Matt Fodge (42.9 average) has to be replaced, probably by redshirt freshman Quinn Sharp.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #39
After ranking in the top 25 last year and in the top half of the Big Twelve this year's recruiting class is in the lower half, but it's not outside the normal range of fluctuations, especially since they recruited fewer players this time around. Among the top blue chips are running backs Dexter Pratt and Jeremy Smith, so head coach Mike "I'm a Man" Gundy should be set at that position for some time.
2009 Season Outlook Another good comparison to the 1988 squad, besides the offensive trio, was the fact that both team beat everybody except the really good teams. In 1988 the Cowboys beat two decent teams, Colorado and Wyoming but lost to the two traditional powers Oklahoma and Nebraska. The Oklahoma game was close; Nebraska was not (though the 63-42 final score made it look like a battle). In 2008 the Cowboys had a huge win over Missouri, but the Tigers weren't the monster they looked like at the time. The Cowboys lost to Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, the three teams that tied for the Big Twelve South lead. The Texas game was close; the other two were not. Paired in a bowl game against Oregon State they lost 42-31, leaving them 1-4 against top 25 teams. They weren't upset by any non-ranked teams, though, just like the '88 squad.
OK State 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Georgia | 58% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | vs. | Houston | 70% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | vs. | Rice | 74% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | vs. | Grambling State | 100% | W | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | @ | *Texas A&M | 66% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | vs. | *Missouri | 61% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | *Baylor | 52% | W | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | vs. | *Texas | 30% | L | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | @ | *Iowa State | 68% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | *Texas Tech | 52% | W | |||
| 11/19 | Thu | vs. | *Colorado | 72% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | @ | *Oklahoma | 24% | L | |||
Favored: 10-2 Projected: 7-5 |
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This year will look a lot like 1988. Easy wins (for the most part) over conference and non-conference foes, but losses to the traditional dominant powers including rival Oklahoma. The offense will be super-charged and the defense at times will give up a lot of points. The difference will be that the defense should be much better than in 1988, and some of the conference wins could be tight. Baylor and Texas Tech, in particular, will be tough but I forsee wins for the Cowboys. And the opener against Georgia is more ambitious than anything on the '88 slate, but considering that OK State is at home and has their key trio back while the Bulldogs lose their main duo I have to take the Cowboys handily.
The cumulative projection is 7-5, accounting for upsets. But seeing how this team didn't underestimate anyone last year I don't think they'll be upset by anyone this year either. If they lose it will be because a team is better than them. If Baylor and Texas Tech beat them, those teams will finish with better records and rankings than the Cowboys. But I think that 10-2 is right for this team. Not getting upset, but not getting any upsets, either, just like 1988.
| 12. Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten #2) Polls: AP #22, USA/Coaches #21 |
2008 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Beat S. Carolina 31-10 (Outback) Poll finish: AP #20, USA #20
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #16 Success: #30 Overall: #16
Iowa loses Doak Walker winner Shonn Greene, but could they be just as good this year?
Offense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #32 Adj. Rush Yards: #22 Adj. Pass Yards: #99
Shonn Greene's 1,850 yards and 20 touchdowns drove Iowa's offense last year. Ricky Stanzi's 1,956 passing yards and 14 TDs were more of a distraction to opposing defenses than anything else. But Stanzi improved after taking over from Jake Christiansen, making fewer mistakes later in the year, and he'll need to step things up with Greene's absence. Top receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos is back though he's been demoted to 2nd string, perhaps to light a fire under him. They lose Brandon Myers at tight end but Tony Moeaki, potentially the team's best player, might finally be injury-free this season (cross your fingers). Taking over for Greene is the very capable Jewel Hampton (7 TDs), who suffered a knee injury during the summer and will be out for the season. If he's healthy he could easily go over 1,000 yards given his blockers: fullback Brett Morse is back, and three starters return on the line though two of them—Julian Vandervelde (injury) and Kyle Calloway (suspension)—will miss the first game (Northern Iowa). Brian Bulaga is the acknowledged star at left tackle, and ex-starter Dace Richardson will be a backup after returning from a knee injury so the running game should excel again at Iowa. The line will be strong but without Hampton Paki O'Meara is listed as the starter (just like last year), and though the Hawks still have talent at running back losing Hampton hurts.
Defense (8 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #7 Adj. Rush Def: #9 Adj. Pass Def: #46
While Greene kept the offense moving, it was the defense that really won games for the Hawkeyes in '08. The defensive line, in particular, was effective in stuffing the run thus forcing teams to pass, after which the defense would come up with a timely interception. The heart of the front four—tackles Mitch King and Matt Kroul—is gone. Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard return, but the rushing defense will undoubtedly fall outside the top ten. However, teams attempting to exploit any weakness in the middle will run smack into one of the nation's best linebacker corps. Pat Angerer (#1 tackler, 5 interceptions), Jeremiha Hunter (#2 tackler), and A.J. Edds all return for the Hawks; backup Jacody Coleman recently transferred. The secondary returns three starters as well: Amari Spievey (4 int), Tyler Sash (5 int), and Brett Greenwood (2 int), though Jordan Bernstine, expected to move in at corner, was lost to injury in fall camp. The Hawkeyes return their top four tacklers and 13 of the top 17 so they may be able to remain one of the top ten scoring defenses despite suffering a few key losses.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Ryan Donahue (41.6 average) is back, and both of the placekickers the Hawks used—Trent Mossbrucker (13 of 15 FGs) and Daniel Murray (6 of 9)—return. Murray had the game-winner against Penn State and is listed as the starter for this year.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #90
Head coach Kirk Ferentz was on a "hot seat," of sorts, heading into this season. It's hard to imagine Hawk fans kicking him out, but the last few years were disappointing, and given his salary—$3 million a year—more was expected. They got more last season and the hot seat cooled. Off-season problems continue to cause distraction, though, with Ferentz' son James once again arrested for public intoxication with a number of other players. Recruiting is another issue. Iowa's recruiting classes have been up and down under Ferentz, with this year's class ranking at the bottom of the Big Ten. A few years ago Iowa had one of the best classes in the Big Ten, and last year's was middle of the pack. As Iowa strives to be a top 25 team year in and year out, having only the occasional top 25 class is a concern, and having a class similar to that of a non-BCS conference team is troublesome. The Hawkeyes did pick up two consensus blue chips this year, both in-state: running back Brandon Wegher and wide receiver Keenan Davis.
2009 Season Outlook Iowa fans thought it was going to be another disappointing year. The Hawkeyes were 3-3 after losing three straight. Opening blowouts of I-AA Maine and Sun Belt cupcake Florida International were fun, and beating Iowa State soothed the boosters. But now it looked like the season was falling apart. SportsRatings' Strength power rating, thought, had Iowa in the top 25 at this point. How could that be? The answer was that Pittsburgh, Northwestern, and Michigan State were all good teams, and Iowa lost two of those on the road, and all three by a combined 9 points. As it turned out the Hawks got even better, winning five of their last six games including a 24-23 win over previously undefeated Penn State and crushing Minnesota 55-0. They won their bowl game 31-10 over South Carolina. In retrospect (and in theory) they were three touchdowns and a field goal away from a 12-0 season.
Iowa 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Northern Iowa | 73% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | @ | Iowa State | 67% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | vs. | Arizona | 52% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | *Penn State | 45% | L | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | Arkansas State | 77% | W | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan | 69% | W | |||
| 10/17 | Sat | @ | *Wisconsin | 60% | W | |||
| 10/24 | Sat | @ | *Michigan State | 49% | L | |||
| 10/31 | Sat | vs. | *Indiana | 84% | W | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | *Northwestern | 68% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | @ | *Ohio State | 49% | L | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | vs. | *Minnesota | 62% | W | |||
Favored: 9-3 Projected: 8-4 |
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The Hawks might be even fewer than 12 points away from being undefeated in 2009. Of the three losses designated here, two barely fall into the "L" column due to being a road games. The other—Penn State—should still be a close contest and they'd be favored at home. They also host Arizona, a game they should win but is by no means a guarantee.
Other than that the season should be pretty clear cut and full of wins. Northern Iowa is a tough FCS team and two O-line starters may be absent, but there should be no problem at home. Iowa State has been a perennial tough rivalry game lately, especially on the road, but again Iowa should win. After Arizona and Penn State they have Arkansas State, Michigan at home, and Wisconsin on the road, only the latter should present a challenge. Indiana, Northwestern, and Minnesota at home should all be wins, too. Before losing Hampton I had them 10-2 with a shot at 11-1; now the cumulative projection is precariously close to 7-5. A lot depends on finding a solid back; they had the same problem at the beginning of last season and came up with Greene. If they can pull another one out of their hat this year it could be a very exciting season.
| 13. North Carolina Tar Heels (ACC #1; Coastal #1) Polls: AP #21, USA/Coaches #20 |
2008 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Lost to West Virginia 31-30 (Car Care) Poll finish: n/a
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #22 Success: #22 Overall: #22
Butch Davis looks to have a true breakout year with the Tar Heels.
Offense (6 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #27 Adj. Rush Yards: #61 Adj. Pass Yards: #85
Quarterback T.J. Yates was injured against Virginia Tech and missed the middle of the season, but he started strong and finished strong to have an 11 to 4 TD to INT ratio while completing 60% of his passes. Cameron Sexton, who filled in during his absence to lead in yardage, is gone but Yates is back. The challenge this year is not only staying healthy but replacing their top three receivers including the amazing Hakeem Nicks (1,222 yards, 12 TDs) and multi-faceted Brandon Tate whose season was cut short last year. Greg Little (146 yards, 0 TDs) returns and the group may be dependent on newcomers. The running game is in better shape with the three top backs returning including Shaun Draughn (866 yards) and Little (339), who split time at tailback, and #3 Ryan Houston who had 8 touchdowns. The offensive line returns three starters, Kyle Jolley, Lowell Dyer, and Alan Pelc. Aaron Stahl, who started in '07 and half-time in '08, didn't return to the team though he had eligibility remaining. The offense should be better at running the ball but the passing game needs some young and green receivers to step up.
Defense (9 RS) '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #26 Adj. Rush Def: #24 Adj. Pass Def: #111
Look for the UNC defense to have another great year against the run, possibly even a top ten rankings. All four starters return on the defensive line: ends Robert Quinn and E.J. Wilson are back with tackles Cam Thomas and Marvin Austin. Backing them up are starting linebackers Quan Sturdivant, the team's #1 tackler and Bruce Carter (5 sacks). They do lose #2 tackler Mask Paschal, but with six of the front seven returning things look good. The secondary wasn't great last year but this area should improve as well. Both starting corners—Kendrick Burney (3 int) and Jordan Hemby—are back, though the latter will play behind Charles Brown who gets his starting job from '07 back. At safety they lose Trimane Goddard (7 interceptions) and backup Matt Merletti but starter Deunta Williams (3 int) returns. They might not finish in the top ten in interceptions again this year but their yardage numbers will be markedly better. Overall the defense should be excellent with 16 of the top 20 tacklers back.
Kicking Game (1 RS): The 'Heels lose punter Terrance Brown (39.5 average); 6' 7" Grant Shallock is set to replace him. Kickers Casey Barth and Jay Wooten combined for 14 of 21 field goals. Barth is back while Wooten has tranferred to South Carolina.
Coaching/Recruiting '09 Recruiting Rank: #4
Butch Davis is one of the few coaches who is seemingly universally respected as a head coach, recruiter, and trustworthy program-builder. A lot of this has to do with his success at Miami while under the constraints of NCAA sanctions. His tenure at North Carolina has been good so far but not without stumbles and even if the team doesn't break through in his third season the future looks good. Davis' 2009 recruiting class is one of the very best in the nation, following a 2008 class that was just outside the top 25. This year the Tar Heels signed a dozen consensus blue chip players, including one of the nation's top recruits in defensive end Donte Moss who chose to stay in-state. Unfortunately Moss was recently involved in a fight with Hunter Furr, a much lower-ranked in-state recruit. Charges were filed, then dropped, and Davis said he disciplined both players who remain on the squad.
2009 Season Outlook Last year of North Carolina I wrote "I think they'll do a whole lot better, turning their 4-8 record into 8-4." That prediction came true, but in starts and fits as injuries shook up the team early on. The Heels unexpectedly struggled against McNeese State before having an equally unexpected easy time in beating Rutgers. Against Virginia Tech things started to go wrong. Holding the lead, Yates was knocked out of the game and it was the difference as UNC lost 20-17. Sexton guided them to wins over Miami and UConn. Brandon Tate was lost for the year against Notre Dame, in which the defense spurred a comeback. After an overtime loss to Virginia strong wins over Boston College and Georgia Tech made them 7-2 and put them in the ever-rotating driver's seat position in the ACC. But losses to Maryland and N.C. State pushed them aside. Still, they made it to 8-4, though it didn't seem like such a great year after all the uncertainty and injury along the way. WIth Yates back at full strength the Tar Heels almost knocked off Pat White and West Virginia. Nicks had several incredible catches but UNC came up just short, 31-30.
UNC 2009 schedule & forecast |
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| 9/5 | Sat | vs. | Citadel | 93% | W | |||
| 9/12 | Sat | @ | Connecticut | 64% | W | |||
| 9/19 | Sat | vs. | East Carolina | 66% | W | |||
| 9/26 | Sat | @ | *Georgia Tech | 49% | L | |||
| 10/3 | Sat | vs. | *Virginia | 70% | W | |||
| 10/10 | Sat | vs. | Georgia Southern | 87% | W | |||
| 10/22 | Thu | vs. | *Florida State | 55% | W | |||
| 10/29 | Thu | @ | *Virginia Tech | 50% | L | |||
| 11/7 | Sat | vs. | *Duke | 75% | W | |||
| 11/14 | Sat | vs. | *Miami (Florida) | 59% | W | |||
| 11/21 | Sat | @ | *Boston College | 56% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Sat | @ | *North Carolina State | 61% | W | |||
Favored: 10-2 Projected: 8-4 |
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Not only are the Tar Heels the best team in the ACC this year—Virginia Tech included—they also have a kind schedule featuring two FCS (I-AA) teams and seven home games. There are maybe four tough games on their slate; lose them all and the cumulative projection of 8-4 comes true and the season is no better than last year's. But they should beat FSU at home and Boston College on the road, leaving the road games—Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech—in question. Each is a tossup I have them narrowly losing. Without a strong receiving corps at the start of the year—though this year's great recruits may be an answer—UNC will probably not go undefeated or 11-1; I'll give them 10-2 this year but beating Virginia Tech would give them an ACC championship game berth. If they get there they should win that, too, and go to a BCS bowl in Davis' third year. Should they luck out and win both their toughest games things would get really interesting, and Davis' stellar reputation would get yet another boost.
I dont think AZ is going to be that good,,but one can hope!!
Posted by: Darryl | August 23, 2009 at 10:51 PM