2009 Pre-season Rankings - #1 (No surprise) Florida Gators

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers the #1 pick. To see the full list, click here.

1. Florida Gators (SEC #1; East #1)          Polls: AP #1, USA/Coaches #1

2008 Results:    Record: 13-1   Bowl: Beat Oklahoma 24-14 (BCS title)   Poll finish: AP #1, USA #1
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #1    Success: #2    Overall: #1
The rich get richer. With Tim Tebow and the entire defense back Florida is overwhelmingly favored to not only repeat, but to go undefeated and be one of the best college football teams of all time.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #2   Adj. Rush Yards: #5    Adj. Pass Yards: #60
It starts with Tim Tebow. When the 2007 Heisman winner announced he was coming back for his senior year it erased any doubt as to which team would be the pre-season favorite. Tebow's numbers were down significantly from his Heisman campaign but he still had jaw-dropping stats: 2,746 yards passing and 30 TDs with just 4 interceptions (only 2 during the regular season). He added 673 yards and 12 TDs on the ground. His value as a team leader is immeasurable and if you get the chance to spend a few moments with him you'll be a better person for it. Okay that last part is malarkey, but he's a unique talent in the college game.

The passing game last year was more of an adjunct to the Gator ground game, and Tebow loses his two best receivers, Louis Murphy (655 yards, 7 TDs) and Percy Harvin (644, 7), the latter being the biggest loss on the team by far.  But there's plenty of talent back starting with tight end Aaron Hernandez (5 TDs) and Riley Cooper (3 TDs) with Deonte Thompson (3 TDs) and David Nelson (5 TDs) taking over the other receiver slots. Harvin was also 2nd leading rusher (to Tebow) with 660 yards and 10 touchdowns, but Chris Rainey, lightning-fast Jeffrey Demps, and Emmanuel Moody had over 1,500 yards combined and each averaged over 7 yards per carry.

The offensive line will be more than sound once again, returning three starters—Mike and Maurkice Pouncey, and Carl Johnson—to a line that allowed just 16 sacks and blocked for over 3,000 rushing yards. Overall the offense could be every bit as good as it was last year, with the rushing and passing balance dependant on what new coordinator Steve Addazio wants to emphasize. There has been talk that Tebow's delivery has been refined to less of a sidearm action, that he may line up behind center more often to prepare him for the pros, that backup QB John Brantley will see more action to prepare the Gators for next season, and that corner Joe Haden might take some snaps. It doesn't really matter which way it hits you, this offense is loaded with weapons.

Defense (11 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #2    Adj. Rush Def: #15    Adj. Pass Def: #8
As loaded as the offense is, the defense may outshine them this season. Every starter is back from last season, which is intimidating enough, but the full 2nd string is back as well. The defensive line returns Jermaine Cunningham (6 sacks), Terron Sanders, Lawrence Marsh, and Justin Trattou, with Carlos Dunlap (9.5 sacks) moving ahead of Trattou this year. At linebacker Ryan Stamper, Brandon Hicks, and Brandon Spikes (#1 tackler, 4 int) make up one of the nation's best 3-man units. A.J. Jones started half the year and returns as Hicks' backup; Dustin Doe was questionable due to suspension but he'll be out for just a game most likely. The secondary returns intact as well with corners Joe Haden (#2 tackler, 12 pass break-ups) and Janoris Jenkins (11 pbu's) plus safeties Ahmad Black (7 interceptions) and Major Wright (4 int). Backup safety Will Hill was the team's #6 tackler. The closest thing to significant loss the Gator defense has is John Jones, a reserve linebacker who finished #19 in tackles last year, and the fact that backup safety Dorian Munroe (injured most of last year) is out for the first several games.

The defense is among the very best in the NCAA in each sector (D-line, linebacker, and secondary) and  overall has to be considered the best in the land. I expect Florida to be #1 in scoring defense and in the top ten or top five in both rushing and passing defense. Though shutouts are hard to predict there is no reason the Gator D can't hold opponents to single digits in at least a half dozen games. With depth covering for possibility of injury, the Florida defense has a chance to be one of the all-time best in college football.

Kicking Game (2 RS):  As if Florida needed more solid positions, the Gators return one of the best kicking duos in the game. Punter Chas Henry averaged 43.4 yards per punt, and kicker Jonathan Phillips hit 12 of 13 field goals and 78 of 79 extra points.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #19
Urban Meyer inherited a lot of talent when he took over for Ron Zook and after adding to it for the last four years he's got a glut of great players. The Gators recruited a smaller class this year that still finishes in the top 25 due to its quality. The state of Florida is naturally the starting point and two of the class' (and the country's) best recruits are defensive lineman Gary Brown from Quincy, FL and wide receiver Andre Dubose from Sanford, FL.  As for Meyer he's doing quite well for himself, signing a new contract that pays him $4 million a year.

2009 Season Outlook  Compared to what followed, the first 1/3 of the 2008 season was sloppy and troublesome. The offense struggled to put points on the board against Miami and Tennessee, winning just 26-3 and 30-6. In the next game the defense had trouble, too, leading to a shocking 31-30 loss to Mississippi when Tebow couldn't convert a fourth down play. That of course led to the famous Tebow speech where he promised to play (and have his team play) harder than anyone has every played.

Whether that was really a turning point or just a coincidence (I would go with the former) the Gators cleaned up for the rest of the season, winning every game by at least four touchdowns regardless of the competition. LSU? 51-21. Georgia? 49-10. Florida State? 45-15. The SEC championship game against Alabama was competitive but the outcome secure, 31-20, and while Oklahoma created opportunities in the championship game the defense closed those doors en route to a 24-14 win. Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow had their 2nd BCS titles in just three years.

Florida 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Charleston Southern	100%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Troy	100%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	100%	W
9/26	Sat	@	*Kentucky	100%	W
10/10	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	88%	W
10/17	Sat	vs.	*Arkansas	100%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Mississippi State	100%	W
10/31	Sat	N	*Georgia	92%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	99%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*South Carolina	99%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	Florida International	100%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	Florida State	94%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 12-0

Florida's 2009 team wrecks my prediction scheme. Normally the "100%" designation is extremely rare and occurs only when games are a joke. That's why I don't bother to denote them as "99.9%" or something more realistic, even though clearly no game is a guarantee. But Florida is so far ahead of the rest of the pack on paper that even against legitimate teams they're picked as a near-certain thing. Only five teams on the schedule should have a real chance of beating the Gators. I think most would agree that Charleston Southern (7-5 last year in I-AA with a 52-7 loss to Miami, and probably not even as good this year) in the Swamp is about as close to a sure win as you can get (Danny Sheridan made them a 63 point underdog; I'll go with 70-0), but Troy? Tennessee? Kentucky on the road? Four SEC opponents? Obviously these teams have some chance of pulling the upset in reality.

But the remaining games don't offer much a chance, either. Even LSU at home is afforded only a 12% chance of beating Florida, and that's the closest any team gets. The cumulative projection, which is normally a conservative look at a team, expects the Gators to go undefeated, too. If Florida can live up to this, they will be one of the best teams of all time.

As other teams suffer injuries, transfers, and other defections of starters, returning lettermen, and key recruits, Florida has been blissfully unharmed this summer, further separating them from the masses. They currently rank two touchdowns ahead of Texas and Oklahoma, the next two teams in the SportsRatings pre-season rankings. That's why I feel that this team will go undefeated, not only through the regular season, but the SEC championship game and the BCS championship game as well.

Great teams start with great defense, and defense is going to be Florida's strong point this year. Teams that win via offense can always have a problem if the offense gets rattled and doesn't perform (see Texas Tech last year, or Oklahoma in the title game). But teams with rock-solid defense are dependable, especially when backed up by an excellent offense. The team's talent and depth is amazing, and it would take a perfect storm for someone to beat them. Urban Meyer's only job this season is to keep the team from getting overconfident, something that happened early last season and could happen again. If that occurs there are any number of opponents in the SEC who could topple the Gators; no team is immune from upset. But this team is pretty close. It will be an interesting year to see if this team can be the best college football team of all time, as well as seeing if any team manages to beat them, and if not, seeing who comes the closest.

Comments

[Susan]

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Susan

[SportsRatings]

Gee thanks, Susan! Good to have some women interested in college football. I hope you don't mind I removed the poker site info you posted along with your nice comment. It made your sweet comments look like an excuse to embed spam, and I know that's not what the case really is! Again, thanks and happy reading. :)