2009 Pre-season Rankings - #2 Texas, #3 Oklahoma (for now...)

The SportsRatings 2009 college football preview ranks all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August. These rankings predict how good the teams might be in 2009 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for every team, and two projected records are presented: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and also a cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty across a season. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. Schedule listings are adapted from James Howell's site.

This installment covers teams #2 and #3. To see the full list, click here.

2. Texas Longhorns (Big Twelve #1; South #1)        Polls: AP #2, USA/Coaches #2

2008 Results:    Record: 12-1   Bowl: Beat Ohio State 24-21 (Fiesta)   Poll finish: AP #4, USA #3
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #4    Success: #3    Overall: #4
A last-second touchdown prevented the Longhorns from competing for the national title last year; they reload and try again in '09.

Offense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #4   Adj. Rush Yards: #44    Adj. Pass Yards: #7
Colt McCoy had a great freshman year followed by a classic sophomore slump in '07. Last year he was perhaps seconds away from winning the Heisman trophy and playing for the national championship. McCoy set an NCAA record with a 76.67% completion rate, passing for 3,859 yards and 34 touchdowns with just 8 interceptions. Back to pursue both unrealized goals this year, he'll be protected by a much more experienced line that has four starters back. They should improve upon last year's sack total (26) and maybe McCoy won't have to be the team's leading rusher (561 yards, 11 TDs). The Longhorns return a number of their top backs—among them Vondrell McGee (376 yards) and Cody Johnson (12 TDs)—but the offense the last few years has become one dimensional, with McCoy being the dimension. Though Quan Cosby is gone, Jordan Shipley who also topped 1,000 receiving yards is back along with Malcolm Williams, Brandon Collins, James Kirkendoll, and last year's backup QB John Chiles (though tight end Blaine Kirby will miss the season due to knee injury) and the passing game should be just as potent. If one or more of the backs can top McCoy's rushing total the offense will be more balanced and even better than last year's juggernaut.

Defense (7 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #5    Adj. Rush Def: #5    Adj. Pass Def: #51
Texas had one of the best balances between offense and defense in the nation; both units ranked in the top five all year long. The defensive line goes through some major changes this year that will impact their rushing defense and pass rush. The front four lose three starters who combined for 21 sacks including Brian Orakpo with 11.5. Lamarr Houston is back and Sergio Kindle (10 sacks) moves from linebacker which is good news for the D-line but the linebackers' loss. At linebacker they also lose Rashad Bobino but #1 tackler Roddrick Muckelroy returns and Jared Norton was #4 in tackles last year, so things aren't that bad, plus Kindle will move between end and linebacker as needed. The secondary ranked a brutal #104 in the nation in passing yards yielded, but recall that they faced the likes of Missouri, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma, all in the top four in the nation in passing. When the yardage is adjusted they were above average and will be even better this year as they lose only corner Ryan Palmer (3 int). Just freshmen last year, safeties Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon combined for 24 pass break-ups and both should be even better as sophomores. At corner Deon Beasley is back and Chykie Brown will start full-time after starting much of last year when Texas used the nickel defense. Overall on defense the top five tacklers return and while they'll be hard-pressed to top last year's 47 sacks—though Kindle could have 20 by himself—the passing defense will be better, keeping the unit every bit as solid as it was last year.

Kicking Game (2 RS): Texas used two punters last year, John Gold and ambidextrous rugby-style punter Justin Tucker. Both averaged around 45 yards a kick, and the team net was an excellent 39.6. Both are back this year. At kicker Hunter Lawrence is back after doing about everything the team asked of him, hitting 60 of 60 extra points and 10 of 12 field goals.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #5
Mack Brown continues to bring in the recruits. Once criticized for not putting the Longhorns into the national race despite getting great recruits, he now does both and has restored Texas to a lofty position in the college football world. This year's class, the best in the Big Twelve, has a potential heir to McCoy in hometown recruit Garrett Gilbert. Alex Okafor could contribute on the D-line immediately, and Mason Walters is a top O-line prospect. There are about 10 other blue chips in the '09 class but you get the idea.

2009 Season Outlook  What else can be said about last year? Breezing through cupcakes in the pre-season (though holding Rice to 10 points was great in retrospect), Texas wasn't expected to win the showdown with Oklahoma but they held on for a 45-35 win. Stomping Missouri and dodging Oklahoma State narrowly, they headed for the final lap in a Mile Run From Hell. At Texas Tech they fell into a big hole, then dug their way out and led until the final second when Harrell and Crabtree hooked up for their famous TD pass. The Longhorns took care of business, polishing off three more foes while hoping for things to work out in the conference and national title pictures. It didn't happen, as the Sooners ultimately got into the BCS title game for being ranked higher in the BCS standings. An uninspired Longhorn team needed a last minute touchdown to beat Ohio State 24-21.

Texas 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	100%	W
9/12	Sat	@	Wyoming	100%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	*Texas Tech	75%	W
9/26	Sat	vs.	UTEP	97%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Colorado	95%	W
10/17	Sat	N	*Oklahoma	51%	W
10/24	Sat	@	*Missouri	78%	W
10/31	Sat	@	*Oklahoma State	68%	W
11/7	Sat	vs.	Central Florida	99%	W
11/14	Sat	@	*Baylor	76%	W
11/21	Sat	vs.	*Kansas	81%	W
11/26	Thu	@	*Texas A&M	89%	W
Favored: 12-0   Projected: 10-2

Texas is going to be a very good football team again. According to my system the first two games (UL-Monroe, Wyoming) are so certain that one shouldn't even bother docking anything from their cumulative percentage. Take "100%" to mean very, very close to a sure thing. Four other opponents (UTEP, Colorado, UCF, and Texas A&M) should show up just to see if maybe they can win the lottery. Texas Tech, Missouri, Baylor, and Kansas are all good teams, but they are heavy underdogs to the Longhorns. That leaves Oklahoma State, who has some chance of winning in Stillwater, and the Sooners who have a coin flip's chance.

The Red River Rivalry will decide the Big Twelve South champion this year; no way Texas is screwed out of it again if they win, and neither team is likely to lose another game in the conference anyway. But even at these high odds the cumulative projection comes to 10-2, which is what UT will be if they have a disappointing year. Texas and Oklahoma are so evenly matched and play on a neutral field so there's no clear winner. Right now Texas is ahead in my system by a hair; tomorrow someone might get injured for the season and it could flip back to the Longhorns. If either team goes undefeated they'll play Florida for the national title; if both end up with a loss it will be USC in that game. A lot is on the line on October 17th.

3. Oklahoma Sooners (Big Twelve #1; South #1)       Polls: AP #3, USA/Coaches #3

2008 Results:   Record: 12-2  Bowl: Lost to Florida 24-14 (BCS title game)  Poll finish: AP #5, USA #5
2008 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #2    Success: #5    Overall: #2
Oklahoma hopes for another shot at Florida, but can't afford a loss to Texas this season.

Offense (5 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Offense: #1   Adj. Rush Yards: #16    Adj. Pass Yards: #3
The Sooner offense was simply amazing last year, and was unstoppable until the BCS championship game when they scored just 14 (though they did blow opportunities to score quite a bit more). This year's model still looks great at quarterback, great at running back, good at receiver, but very questionable on the offensive line. Heisman winner Sam Bradford returns to take what's becoming a commonplace shot at being a two-time recipient, joining Josh White, Matt Leinart, and Tim Tebow among those returning after winning the award. Bradford's 4,720 yards and 50(!) touchdowns with just 8 receptions gave him a slim voting margin over Colt McCoy and Tebow last season, as did one of his 5 TDs runs where he cartwheeled through the air. At running back Chris Brown (1,220 yards, 20 TDs) and DeMarco Murray (1,002 yds, 14 TDs) are about the best one-two punch you could ask for other than Bush/White. Jermain Gresham is back at tight end after reeling in 14 TD passes last year, and Ryan Broyles is back at receiver after a fine freshman year, but they do lose star Juaquin Iglesias (1,150 yards, 10 TDs) and #3 Manuel Johnson (9 TDs).

The losses on the offensive line are far heavier. Four starters with a combined 12 years of starting experience are gone, including NFL draft picks Phil Loadholt and Duke Robinson. Certainly one reason Bradford was so good last year is that he seemingly had all day to throw; the line gave up just 13 sacks. And the holes opened up for Murray and Brown were big enough for a charging rhino. With only Trent Williams returning the line will be much weaker, meaning it should still be very good but not as great as last year's line. Bradford will find things a bit more difficult this year due to the loss of receivers and linemen, and the running game won't be as productive. But there's a long way to come down from last year's record output so they still be one of the best units in the nation. It's not likely Bradford will get 50 TD passes or the Sooners have two 1,000 yard backs again but the offense will still get the job done.

Defense (9 RS)    '08 Adj. Scoring Defense: #17    Adj. Rush Def: #26    Adj. Pass Def: #79
In a nutshell, the defense loses its safeties, and that's it—everyone else is back. What this means is that the weakest area of the defense may get weaker, although the pass defense numbers from last year are misleading. The Sooners gave up a lot of yards (99th in raw passing yardage, 79th adjusted) but were #11 in interceptions and #3 in sacks (counted against rushing yards) so overall the pass defense was sound. Losing Lendy Holmes (5 interceptions) and Nic Harris, their #2 and #4 tacklers, hurts the secondary but corners Brian Jackson and Dominique Franks (4 int) had 20 pass break-ups between them and form a good foundation. As mentioned, everywhere else the Sooners are solid. The defensive line returns stars Austin English and Gerald McCoy at end and tackle with Adrian Taylor and Jeremy Beal (8.5 sacks) also back, forming one of the best D-lines in the country. Expect excellent rushing defense numbers from the Sooners in '09 with this line, and due to the linebacking corps returning all its starters as well: Ryan Reynolds, hurt in the middle of the season, is back and hopefully stays healthy. Travis Lewis (#1 tackler with 144 as a freshman) is a superstar in the making and Keenan Clayton is back for his senior year. There are some issues with depth as key backup Mike Balogun may be ineligible this season for playing semi-pro football beyond his 21st birthday, and incoming freshman Tom Wort was sidelined with a knee injury. Balogun is appealing the NCAA decision but it doesn't look to me like he'll win. Regardless, Oklahoma has other strong backups and the front seven is perhaps the best in the country. 

Kicking Game (1 RS):  Kicker Jimmy Stevens got a lot of practice on extra points (hitting 94 of 99) but not much work kicking field goals (8 of 12). He's back but punter Mike Knall (just a 36.5 average) is gone. Redshirt freshman Tress Way is the new punter (and is competing for the placekicking job too) but he apparently isn't much better. That's okay, the Sooners don't plan on punting very much this year either.

Coaching/Recruiting      '09 Recruiting Rank: #13
Bob Stoops—can't win the big one? Or just random events making him look bad? After winning the national championship in 2000, Oklahoma has had a string of bad luck in BCS games, losing three championship games since then (2003, 2004, 2008) and their last five BCS bowls overall. Three coin flips (or even five) doesn't prove much, but when it comes to sports everything has to have a correlation, especially if you're a fan who has eight months to mull over your team's latest loss. Of course this ignores his 2001 and 2005 bowl wins and disregards the 2002 Rose Bowl win, and the fact that getting to five BCS bowls in six years is nothing short of amazing (they've been to seven in this decade).

This year's recruiting class suggests that the winning will continue. Roughly the same level as last year's class, just inside or outside of the top ten, maybe two or three fewer blue chip players than 2008. As mentioned in the defense section, newcomer Tom Wort was expected to play a key role at linebacker but will redshirt with a knee injury. And Wort wasn't even the highest-touted linebacker prospect in the group; that honor goes to Ronnell Lewis from Dewar, Oklahoma. So far he's healthy.

2009 Season Outlook  The Sooners steamrolled opponents with offense last year, setting a new NCAA scoring record. The worst teams just succumbed, unable to score points (Chattanooga, Washington); better teams score points but couldn't keep up (Cincinnati, Kansas, Oklahoma State); TCU held them to 35 but only scored 10 points themselves; and a few of the very best managed to beat them (Texas, Florida). Oklahoma scored 60 or more points five times in a row, and not against cupcakes: Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Missouri. They scored 716 points over the course of the season but only 14 in the BCS Championship game.

Oklahoma 2009 schedule & forecast
9/5	Sat	vs.	BYU	91%	W
9/12	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	100%	W
9/19	Sat	vs.	Tulsa	88%	W
10/3	Sat	@	Miami (Florida)	76%	W
10/10	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	82%	W
10/17	Sat	N	*Texas	49%	L
10/24	Sat	@	*Kansas	73%	W
10/31	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	95%	W
11/7	Sat	@	*Nebraska	82%	W
11/14	Sat	vs.	*Texas A&M	95%	W
11/21	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	68%	W
11/28	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	74%	W
Favored: 11-1   Projected: 10-2

This season comes down to the Texas game. If the Sooners have trouble because of their less experienced offensive line they might lose two games; any more than that is a big disappointment. Beat Texas and they could very well go undefeated. They won't score 700 points again this year but they'll hold their opponents to a lot less than last year's 343.

Miami should be their first reasonable challenge; not even BYU on the "neutral" field of Arlington, TX counts. Tulsa was good last year but loses a lot of offense. Baylor will put up a fight but the Sooners should go into the Red River Rivalry unblemished. Afterwards there a road game at Kansas, and later Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. If they beat Texas I don't see them losing again, but if they fall to Texas they might have a second loss in one of those games.

Right now the Longhorns have a superslim edge that could go away before the season starts depending on how injuries and eligibilities play out. So basically the game, and thus who will be the national title competitor, is too close to call.

Comments

[Susan]

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[SportsRatings]

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