Sunday February 1st: Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa, FL 6:00* pm eastern (actual kickoff closer to 6:30)
Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (12-7)
The Steelers are looking for their sixth NFL title in their eighth appearance; the Cardinals are in their very first Super Bowl.
Vegas line: Pittsburgh by 7
The Steelers are heavy favorites, with the line now varying between 6 1/2 and 7 points.
Strength Power Rating: Pittsburgh 29 Arizona 19
Pittsburgh is the #1 team in the league according to the Strength Power Rating and is favored by 10 points over Arizona, who barely registers as an average team when the entire season is considered. Here is the current state of the power rating through all games played so far this year:
num Team record rating offense defense
1. Pittsburgh 14-4 10.40 24.46 [ 9] 14.06 [ 1]
2. Baltimore 13-6 10.21 26.02 [ 6] 15.80 [ 3]
3. Philadephia 11-6 9.31 26.94 [ 5] 17.63 [ 4]
4. Tennessee 13-4 8.40 22.85 [ 16] 14.44 [ 2]
5. NY Giants 12-5 7.87 26.95 [ 4] 19.07 [ 7]
6. Indianapolis 12-5 5.89 24.08 [ 12] 18.19 [ 6]
7. San Diego 9-9 4.55 26.99 [ 2] 22.44 [ 17]
8. New England 11-5 3.88 24.30 [ 10] 20.42 [ 13]
9. Carolina 12-5 3.47 23.48 [ 14] 20.00 [ 10]
10. New Orleans 8-8 3.27 28.46 [ 1] 25.19 [ 26]
11. Minnesota 10-7 2.96 22.58 [ 18] 19.61 [ 9]
12. Atlanta 11-6 2.75 22.89 [ 15] 20.14 [ 11]
13. Green Bay 6-10 2.22 25.80 [ 7] 23.57 [ 22]
14. Chicago 9-7 1.50 22.84 [ 17] 21.34 [ 14]
15. Tampa Bay 9-7 1.49 21.03 [ 20] 19.53 [ 8]
16. Dallas 9-7 0.89 23.97 [ 13] 23.07 [ 20]
17. NY Jets 9-7 0.17 24.17 [ 11] 24.00 [ 23]
18. Arizona 12-7 0.08 26.96 [ 3] 26.87 [ 28]
That's quite a gap between the rankings of the teams, even bigger than last year's gap between the Patriots and the Giants. Last year, the Giants were ranked among the top 10 teams as they made the Super Bowl from the wildcard slot, and had an impressive set of late-season games. Arizona has come alive during the playoffs, but not the way the Giants did. Though the Steelers were hardly as dominant as the Patriots, they still rank at the top and haven't slowed down the way New England did in the 2nd half of the 2007 season.
Arizona on offense: If Arizona is to win, they need a strong game from Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald as their #3 scoring offense takes on the Steelers' #1 ranked defense. The Steelers are rock-solid against both the pass and the run, ranking #1 and #2 in the league. The Cardinals' air attack is #2 in the league but their rushing game is dead last, which should allow the Steeler defense to focus on Warner. They're tied for 6th in interceptions and are 2nd in sacks, and Warner has been vulnerable to both, particularly interceptions. Because the Steelers are so good against the pass and the Arizona running game might not be a threat, the Cardinals have to speed up the play calling to keep Pittsburgh's D off-balance.
Pittsburgh on offense: Though the Steelers rank just 17th in passing and 23rd in rushing in unadjusted yards, when corrected for their opposition their offensive output looks much better: Pittsburgh's offense ranks 9th in adjusted scoring average, which should be more than adequate against the Cardinals' 28th-ranked defense. Ben Roethlisberger isn't having the kind of year Warner had, and he's been sacked 51 times and lost 7 fumbles this year. Arizona is 22nd in raw passing yards yielded on defense and 16th against the run, so they can theoretically keep up with the Steeler offense, but that's against relatively weak competition. And while Pittsburgh lacks consistency on offense, they do have more of a run/pass balance, and Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore should keep the Cards on their toes if they try to rush Roethlisberger, and Hines Wards' questionable knee might make them more important still.
Special Teams: Pittsburgh's punting game is woeful and near the bottom of the league in both punting average and returns; Arizona isn't much better, though, so they don't have that big of an advantage in the field position game. The two teams are nearly identical in field goal percentage and points scored on kicks.
Game-comparison win %
Pittsburgh 70%
Arizona 30%
Pittsburgh has been markedly more consistent than Arizona this season, with the latter suffering several big losses throughout the season. The Steelers haven't won by huge margins, but tend to play at a reliable level. This makes Pittsburgh a 7 in 10 favorite to win when all game-comparisons are cross-combined.
Pittsburgh's key games
Wins over playoff teams (5)
- Baltimore 23-20 (4th game of season)
- San Diego 11-10 (10th)
- @ Baltimore 13-9 (14th)
- San Diego 35-24 (17th)
- Baltimore 23-14 (18th)
Losses (4):
- @ Philadelphia 15-6
- @ New York Giants 21-14
- Indianapolis 24-20
- @ Tennessee 31-14
Pittsburgh has five wins over playoff teams—but those are all over Baltimore and San Diego, and four of the five were at home. But their losses are all to playoff teams as well; they haven't been devastatingly blown out, nor have they lost to a bad team. They bounced back from their worst game of the year ( the Tennessee loss) to shut out Cleveland 31-0 before the playoffs.
Arizona's key games
Wins over playoff teams (4):
- Miami 31-10 (2nd game of season)
- Atlanta 30-24 (17th)
- @ Carolina 33-13 (18th)
- Philadelphia 32-25 (19th)
Losses (7):
- @ Washington 24-17
- @ New York Jets 56-35
- @ Carolina 27-23
- New York Giants 37-29
- @ Philadelphia 48-20
- Minnesota 35-14
- @ New England 47-7
Three of Arizona's four wins over playoff teams occurred in the post-season itself; from their week two crushing of Miami through the end of the regular season, they beat no one of note. But over the next three weeks they avenged two losses.
Speaking of losses, the Cards had their share this year, and many of them weren't pretty. Four of them count as blowouts, three losses were to non-playoff teams, and two were blowout losses to non-playoff teams. Since New England was a playoff-level team at 11-5 that's a bit harsh, but the 47-7 loss—which happened just a little over a month ago—was a breakdown on all fronts. Some have suggested that it led to the team's turnaround, and certainly they've played much better in the four games since. But I'd hesitate to give such a devastating loss too much credit. They played a horrible game at New England, and since then they haven't, that's all.
Psychology
The Cards are in their first Super Bowl appearance while the Steelers have been here recently, and historically. While in many sports this would give Arizona the edge for "hunger" that usually doesn't apply in the Super Bowl; rookie teams typically have big problems. By my count, teams making their initial Super Bowl appearance are 9-18 and have been on the receiving end of quite a few blowouts.
Another wild card is Roethlisberger's performance. In his last Super Bowl outing he had a sloppy game to be kind. Pittsburgh still won, showing that they don't need him to be the star. But it would help if he had a much better game.
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Final analysis
Last year's Super Bowl was an odd game. Despite dominating the season and being a heavy favorite by the oddsmakers, a very large section of the public didn't think the Patriots could complete their perfect season. And there were good reasons: the dominance they'd shown in the first half of the season had devolved into close calls and narrow escapes. Meanwhile the Giants had put together a string of remarkable games to make it to the Super Bowl. From that angle, it looked like a close game, and in the end it was.This game has some similarities. Compared on a whole-season level, there's no way the Cardinals should beat the Steelers. Arizona rates as a completely average team by the power ratings, they've been blown out multiple times, and they have no running game. Pittsburgh rates as the best team in the league, and the oddsmakers favor them heavily as well.
Could this be another situation like last season? I don't think so. While the Giants were at least a top 10 team last year, in the playoffs they were neck and neck with the Patriots level of play. The Cardinals don't even look like they should have made the playoffs. Their defense is among the worst in the league.
But what about their last four games? What happened after the crushing loss to New England? Despite their defensive problems, they're certainly playing well enough recently to beat a Pittsburgh team with a very questionable offense.
However, I think Pittsburgh's defense will live up to its forebears in the Steel Curtain tradition. Without having to cope with a running game, they will be able to stifle Warner. The defense will give the offense opportunities, and Roethlisberger will do a lot better than last time around. Given that, and that Super Bowls are often blowouts and unkind to first-time teams, that's what I think will happen on Sunday.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 31 Arizona 10
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