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The 2008 Oklahoma Sooners offense has piled up points week after week and looks pretty much unstoppable in doing so. With Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford and and slew of great backs and receivers following a great offensive line, some have suggested that it is the best college football offense of all time. Is it? How does it rank in objective measures against the great offenses of the past?
While it's impossible to truly cross-compare teams from different eras, we can use game records to implement some systems for doing so. Many would argue that the best teams today are better than the great teams of the past simply due to having bigger, faster players, etc. This is probably true for some measure of time; we can probably assume teams today could probably dominate teams from 100 or 50 years ago, but what about 25? 10?
Instead, we'll make a standard that treats all teams equally as much as possible, so all eras are considered roughly the same. Then if we assume only the last 10 or 30 years is relevant, we can compare just those teams.
The process of comparing teams' offensives is threefold:
- Offensive output is normally measured by score, or yardage. We'll use score, because that data is far more available for previous decades than game-by-game yardage stats.
- Instead of just using average points per game, we will use adjusted points per game; that is, a team's average score output corrected for the team's strength of schedule. If the team has faced opposition with weak or strong defenses, their adjusted average score will be higher than their raw average score.
- When comparing teams from different years, many factors come into play. The most recent big change is overtime, which creates more scoring opportunities. Other rules changes over the decades, as well as offensive and defensive innovations, have changed the average score of a college football game year to year. We'll subtract this average from the team's own adjusted scoring average to use in comparing teams from different seasons.
Ok here we go. First we should ask: Is Oklahoma's offense even the best offense of 2008?
Top offenses, 2008 football season (through Jan. 3, 2009)
# Team record adj. ave
1. Oklahoma 12-1 56.56 [ 1]
2. Florida 12-1 47.60 [ 2]
3. Oregon 10-3 44.76 [ 3]
4. Texas 11-1 43.35 [ 4]
5. Texas Tech 11-2 43.03 [ 5]
6. Missouri 10-4 42.84 [ 6]
7. Tulsa 10-3 40.92 [ 7]
8. Penn State 11-2 40.87 [ 8]
9. Southern Cal 12-1 40.70 [ 9]
10. Oklahoma St 9-4 39.52 [ 10]
From the output of the Strength power rating, the answer is, yes, quite clearly. They rank far ahead of the Florida Gators, their opponent in the upcoming BCS title game, almost 9 points better. Of course, this may change if the Gators, who are ranked quite high on defense, can contain the Sooners. But we're going to look at where they rank right now.
Some people think the Big 12 doesn't play defense, which is silly. As a major conference, the teams in the Big 12 are almost by definition superior to the average I-A school, and will play defense accordingly. Oklahoma averages 54 points a game, but when corrected for their opposition, their average score is about 2.5 points higher. Playing TCU and Cincinnati in the pre-conference season didn't hurt, especially since TCU ranks 2nd in scoring defense. The numbers are corrected for home/road games as well.
So we've established that the Sooners are a clear #1 in 2008, at least so far. How about for the current decade? Most people would allow that a direct comparison of the teams within a ten-year timeframe is legit.
Top offenses 2000-2008 seasons (uncorrect for year played)
# Year Team record adj. ave
1. 2008 Oklahoma 12-1 56.56 [1]
2. 2005 Texas 13-0 53.70 [1]
3. 2005 Southern California 12-1 52.48 [2]
4. 2001 Florida 10-2 47.91 [1]
5. 2008 Florida 12-1 47.60 [2]
6. 2007 Florida 9-4 47.36 [1]
7. 2004 Utah 12-0 46.91 [1]
8. 2004 Louisville 11-1 46.81 [2]
9. 2001 Miami (Florida) 12-0 46.80 [2]
10. 2000 Nebraska 10-2 45.26 [1]
Oklahoma still comes out on top. The next two teams, not surprisingly, are the 2005 national champs and the runner-up that year: Vince Young's Texas Longhorns and the 2nd Leinart/Bush/White offense at USC (the [2] signifies their rank within the team's year). Then come three Florida teams, including this year's and last year's Tebow squads; two teams from 2004 (Utah and Louisville), the 2001 national champion Miami Hurricanes, and a team from one of Nebraska's last good seasons.
Now let's take a bigger step back and include every team from the '80s and '90s as well.
Top offenses 1980-2008 seasons (uncorrected for year played)
# Year Team record adj. ave
1. 2008 Oklahoma 12-1 56.56 [ 1]
2. 1995 Nebraska 12-0 54.30 [ 1]
3. 1989 Houston 9-2 54.28 [ 1]
4. 2005 Texas 13-0 53.70 [ 1]
5. 2005 Southern California 12-1 52.48 [ 2]
6. 1983 Nebraska 12-1 51.47 [ 1]
7. 1994 Penn State 12-0 51.44 [ 1]
8. 1996 Florida 12-1 50.89 [ 1]
9. 1995 Florida State 10-2 49.48 [ 2]
10. 1998 Kansas State 11-2 48.51 [ 1]
...and the Sooners are still number one. A lot of great teams on the list, with Texas and USC making the cut as well in the top five. But about at this point the comparisons might become a bit suspect, as the coming of overtime and spread offenses have steadily increased the average score of a game nearly 7 points from 1980 to 2008. So let's look at the same list, but standardized by simply subtracting the year's average score off the team's adjusted offense. What we get is pretty much the same teams shuffled around a bit:
Top offenses 1980-2008 seasons (standardized for year played)
# year Team rec adj. ave year's ave difference
1. 2008 Oklahoma 12-1 56.56 [1] - 26.35 = 30.21
2. 1989 Houston 9-2 54.28 [1] - 24.13 = 30.15
3. 1983 Nebraska 12-1 51.47 [1] - 21.93 = 29.54
4. 1995 Nebraska 12-0 54.30 [1] - 25.20 = 29.10
5. 2005 Texas 13-0 53.70 [1] - 26.28 = 27.42
6. 1994 Penn State 12-0 51.44 [1] - 24.51 = 26.93
7. 2005 USC 12-1 52.48 [2] - 26.28 = 26.20
8. 1996 Florida 12-1 50.89 [1] - 25.46 = 25.43
9. 1995 Florida State 10-2 49.48 [2] - 25.20 = 24.28
10. 1980 Brigham Young 12-1 44.54 [1] - 20.51 = 24.03
Now three teams from the 80s make it in the top ten and rise a bit. Oklahoma is still #1, though, followed by the Andre Ware run-and-shoot Houston team and the juggernaut Nebraska team that lost in the classic game at Miami. At #4 is the true juggernaut Nebraska team from 1995 that no one could stop, followed by the 2005 teams sandwiching Penn State's 1994 co-national champ squad. Florida's 1996 national title winner makes it, and Florida State's 1995 squad turns out to be its top entrant. BYU from 1980 rounds out the top ten. Just off the bottom of the list at #12 is are the 1988 Oklahoma State Cowboys with Barry Sanders (and current coach Mike Gundy).
We can take this back as far as we want. Sticking with the adjusted-for-year figures, let's look all the way back starting in 1940, around the time when helmets were first required equipment and most of the modern rules were in effect:
Top offenses 1940-2008 seasons (standardized for year played)
# year Team rec adj. ave year's ave difference
1. 1945 Army 9-0 59.42 [1] - 16.35 = 43.07
2. 1944 Army 9-0 59.84 [1] - 17.08 = 42.76
3. 1945 Alabama 10-0 52.21 [2] - 16.35 = 35.86
4. 1947 Michigan 10-0 47.35 [1] - 16.20 = 31.15
5. 1952 Oklahoma 8-1-1 48.59 [1] - 18.33 = 30.26
6. 2008 Oklahoma 12-1 56.56 [1] - 26.35 = 30.21
7. 1989 Houston 9-2 54.28 [1] - 24.13 = 30.15
8. 1983 Nebraska 12-1 51.47 [1] - 21.93 = 29.54
9. 1971 Oklahoma 11-1 49.79 [1] - 20.26 = 29.53
10. 1956 Oklahoma 10-0 45.97 [1] - 16.70 = 29.27
With the addition of 40 more years of football, under different rules and conditions, there is of course a lot of change. But teams from the '40s, '50s, '70s, '80s, and this decade are represented. Only Oklahoma survives from our first list, but the 1989 Houston and 1983 Nebraska teams hang in there, too. The teams of the 40s dominate, as they did in that era. If you look at college football records, you'll note as you go farther back in time there is more dominance. The teams that win, win big. And this means their offenses were much better compared to their cohort than teams today can claim; parity had not yet become a notion in college football in the '40s.
Army's 1945 is a good example. They averaged an adjusted 59.42 points (a raw 45.8, but they played Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn, and Navy) while the average score was just over 16 points a game. They also had the top defense that year, making them one of the most dominant teams ever in college football.
After that we see a lot of Oklahoma teams represented, including the 1956 team that completed the third straight undefeated Sooner season and the 1971 team that lost the "game of the century" to Nebraska.
But if we're looking for the best offenses of all time, let's consider every single year the game's been played, starting with its no-rules-soccer inception, brief rugby-esque days, through the Flying Wedge and forward pass. Most of the game's early years were dominated by the Ivy League, and then the game went through a process whereby the rest of country caught up. This process was complete by the 1940s.
Top offenses 1869-2008 seasons (standardized for year played)
# year Team rec adj. ave year's ave difference
1* 1918 Colorado Mines 4-0 61.65 [1] - 14.03 = 47.62
1. 1886 Yale 9-0-1 68.46 [1] - 21.06 = 47.40
2. 1945 Army 9-0 59.42 [1] - 16.35 = 43.07
3. 1944 Army 9-0 59.84 [1] - 17.08 = 42.76
4. 1920 California 9-0 56.73 [1] - 14.44 = 42.29
5. 1884 Yale 8-0-1 61.98 [1] - 20.39 = 41.59
6. 1890 Harvard 11-0 58.27 [1] - 17.46 = 40.81
7. 1885 Princeton 9-0 66.80 [1] - 26.07 = 40.73
8. 1902 Michigan 11-0 52.08 [1] - 12.00 = 40.08
9. 1883 Yale 9-0 57.48 [1] - 17.93 = 39.55
10. 1917 Georgia Tech 9-0 54.52 [1] - 15.14 = 39.38
This is the most difficult comparison, but the results reflect truly the teams that had the most dominant offenses of all time. It doesn't tell us anything about what these teams would compared to teams in the modern era, of course, before integration, big money, and modern training changed the game forever.
Colorado Mines is given an asterisk as they played just four games, not much of an average to go by, in a year that many teams played very few games for obvious reasons.
Unbelievably, the 1886 Yale team was actually shut out once (in a 0-0 tie with Princeton, whose defense ranks among the top 5 all time) but still averaged 68.7 points per game.
The 1883 and 1884 Yale squads (averaging a raw 60 and 55) show up, as do the 1890 Harvard and 1885 Princeton teams. This reflects the Ivy League's early dominance, but also reflects a statisitical phenomenon: the farther you go back, the more dominant the good teams are, but in 1883 the scoring system of the game was overhauled and the average score jumped from around 2 points a game to nearly 20 ppg overnight. So technically this system is very unfair to pre-1883 teams, but then again, for some of those years they were playing madcap Soccer-rugby anyway.
The Army teams still represent at #2 and #3, while the California, Michigan, and Georgia Tech squads listed take advantage of scoring reams of points in years when the average score was low. Back then, schedules weren't national like they are now, so comparisons between teams of different regions is unreliable. But suffice it to say these teams scored more points than any team is likely to score today. The 1917 Georgia Tech squad didn't beat Cumberland 222-0—that was the previous year.
So where does Oklahoma of 2008 rank? I didn't fill out the entire chart, but they're somewhere in the 30s, which is quite remarkable for a modern team. No team since 1952 has ranked as high as they do, so it might be fair to say that—at least by certain measure—they're the best offense in over 60 years, and therefore arguably the best offense in modern college football.
They have to back that up with a good performance against Florida's defense. While one game won't change their ranking that much in any mathematical system, they won't be subjectively judged one of history's greatest if they don't come through in their biggest game.
Next up: same thing, but for defenses. Where does this year's USC squad place?
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