Monday January 5th: Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ 8:00 pm eastern
#1 Texas Longhorns (11-1) vs. #10 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2)
Texas didn't get their shot at the BCS title game; instead they get their shot at the Buckeyes, whom the Rose Bowl contestants both defeated. Will they play up to their ability?
Vegas line: Texas by 8.
The Longhorns are 8 to 8 1/2 point favorites.
Strength Power Rating: Texas 29 Ohio State 16
The Strength power rating makes Texas a 13 point favorite. The Buckeye offense is the weak link; despite Terrelle Pryor and Chris Wells, they rank just 29th in the nation in adjusted scoring average. They're very strong on defense, though, ranking #5 in the nation, but the Longhorns are #4, and they're #4 on offense as well.
Yardage analysis: Texas 28 Ohio State 14
By yardage Texas is still in the top ten in both categories, ranking 10th in offense and 6th in defense. Ohio State still ranks 5th on defense but is a middling 66th on offensive yardage production. So how do they rank 29th in scoring? By being tied for #1—with Oklahoma—in red zone percentage. When they get inside the 20, they come away with points almost all the time, earning more bang for the buck on their yardage. Texas, by the way, ranks 6th in red zone defense, so the Buckeyes might not be able to count on their normal success rate. It will be interesting to see what happens near Texas' goal line.
When Ohio State has the ball
Ohio State rushing offense: #17 Texas rushing defense: #4
Ohio State passing offense: #107 Texas passing defense: #46
While Pryor's passing has been efficient and improved throughout the season, it's used sparingly compared to the run, which features both Pryor and Wells as threats. In fact, #17 is a lowball ranking for the team's current rushing attack, since several games where Boeckman started and Wells was injured or not 100% are included. The Longhorns' rushing defense can still probably handle a top ten rushing offense, but the dual-threat quarterback throws a curve into it. Will the Buckeyes give Texas a taste of their own medicine from a few years back?
When Texas has the ball
Texas rushing offense: #40 Ohio State rushing defense: #26
Texas passing offense: #10 Ohio State passing defense: #7
OSU's rushing defense is the (relatively) weak link in their defense. Texas' ground game starts with quarterback Colt McCoy, who has 576 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. The Longhorns have a few other backs, like Vondrell McGee (376 yards) and Cody Johnson (12 touchdowns), but McCoy's option runs have been more effective. If the Buckeye pass rush gets pressure on McCoy his running will be even more important. In all Ohio State matches up pretty well here, but they haven't faced a passer as accurate as McCoy.
Game-comparison win %
Texas 80%
Ohio State 20%
When all 144 game-comparisons (each team's 12 games, cross-compared) are tallied up, Texas comes out ahead in just over 4/5 of the matchups. Unless Ohio State plays exceedingly well, or Texas very poorly—or both—the Longhorns are the likely winner.
Texas' key games
Wins over bowl teams (6)
- Florida Atl. 52-10 (1st game of season)
- Rice 52-10 (3rd game)
- = #2 Oklahoma 45-35 (6th)
- Missouri 56-31 (7th)
- #12 Oklahoma State 28-24 (8th)
- @ Kansas 25-7 (11th)
Losses (1):
- @ #3 Texas Tech 39-33
To start the season, Texas beat three out of their first four foes by the identical score of 52-10. These victims included bowl winners Florida Atlantic and Rice.
Then in the middle of the season, they defeated three top teams, including BCS title contender Oklahoma. They fell on a last-second play at Texas Tech, then rolled to three more wins.
Despite beating Oklahoma head-to-head, the Longhorns didn't make the Big 12 championship game. But they still think they have a shot at #1 in the AP poll if Oklahoma wins a close game and they can dominate the Buckeyes.
Texas really has yet to play a poor game, period. Their narrow road loss to Texas Tech was no worse a game than their home win over Oklahoma State, and those were their worst games of the year. The worst you can say is they've played a bad half here and there, but not many.
Ohio State's key games
Wins over bowl teams (5):
- Troy 28-10 (4th game of season)
- Minnesota 34-21 (5th)
- @ Wisconsin 20-17 (6th)
- @ #19 Michigan State 45-7 (8th)
- @ #21 Northwestern 45-10 (10th)
Losses (2):
- @ #7 USC 35-3
- #8 Penn State 13-6
Ohio State began the year a national favorite, with a slew of talent back from last year's (premature) BCS title game competitor. But once Beanie Wells went out with an injury in the opener against Youngstown State, something was wrong.
They struggled to beat Ohio, 26-14; then at USC, they were dominated by the Trojans. It wasn't just the offense that had trouble—that was expected with Wells out. But the defense, which was the country's best in 2007 and had almost everyone back, looked awful.
As a result of the USC debacle, Todd Boeckman was benched in favor of Terrelle Pryor, which further stalled the offense's recovery; while Pryor added dimension and potential to the offense, he lacked experience and consistency. The Buckeyes sneaked to 28-10 and 34-21 wins over Troy and Minnesota at home, escaped from Wisconsin with a 20-17 win and edged Purdue 16-3. During this time Wells had returned and was getting his speed back, and Pryor was getting used to the offense.
When they played Michigan State, everything came together. Wells was 100%, Pryor played great, and the defense nearly shut out the Spartans.
Hosting undefeated Penn State on October 25, Nittany Lions were too tough and the Buckeyes barely lost. It showed that they could now stay with a top ten team, albeit at home. The main difference was the play of the defense, which was far better than against USC.
The Bucks continued where they had left off, closing out with three wins and making it to a BCS bowl, where they will get their shot at another top ten team, this time on neutral territory. You can see clearly the slope of Ohio State's improvement in the chart from week 2 when Wells was out, through his recovery and Pryor's increasing experience helping the offense. The defense should be ready, but has the offense under Pryor improved enough to meet the challenge?
Psychology
Texas wants to prove it's the #1 team in the country, and they don't really have that chance here. They'd have to beat Ohio State worse than 35-3 to quiet those who are saying USC deserves consideration. And with the Big Ten's record this bowl season, if it's a close game at all many won't listen to pro-Longhorn arguments.When you have to start thinking about how much you must beat a team by, you sometimes lose focus of the fact that you'd better make sure you win by at least 1 point. That's the risk Texas faces.
Ohio State has nothing to lose in this game, but could they be underconfident? Seeing the Big Ten go down bowl game after bowl game can't help their confidence. They're facing a team roughly as good as USC. If they catch them on the wrong day, it could be ugly like Ohio State's last several big non-conference games. But catch them on the right day and with their defense, they could pull of the upset, so that's what they should focus on. I'm not sure what it means that Jim Tressel didn't allow Pryor to be interviewed at the Fiesta Bowl media day events, but it's probably wise to keep the freshman out of the spotlight before the game.
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Final analysis
Texas clearly rates as a better team than the Buckeyes, and the Longhorns have beaten better teams than Ohio State has. The game will be a test between the two quarterbacks.
Ohio State's offense depends a lot on Wells and Pryor, while Texas depends on McCoy a lot, too, their offense has years of experience with him a the helm, while the Buckeyes are just now getting fully used to how the offense runs with Pryor as opposed to Boeckman, the starter last year (and this year's first several games). And as much as Pryor may confuse the Longhorn D, Ohio State's defense might not be quite prepared for McCoy, either.
As for Wells, he was held to 55 yards by a similar quality rushing defense against Penn State. And for all the talent between Wells and Pryor, shouldn't Ohio State have a more explosive offense? This is Pryor's test: realize the potential of this offense.
Emotionally, Texas must be in an odd place. Confident, yet not in control of their destiny; proud of their achievements but disappointed at the ultimate results. A letdown here is definitely a possibility. The test for Colt McCoy will be to see to it that it doesn't happen.
Prediction: Texas 24 Ohio State 17
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