In between from #2 to #5 are the Big Twelve teams and Utah. The Texas/Oklahoma/Texas Tech round-robin tie still goes to Texas. It might be hard to keep it that way if the Sooners beat Missouri and Alabama/Florida, but for now I'm following my guidelines. And if Oklahoma loses, I probably won't put Tech above the Longhorns, as head-to-head order would want. Utah will probably get a shot at Texas or Alabama/Florida, so they're in the mix too. An undefeated team with several big wins deserves consideration as the top team, and unlike Hawaii last year they've played a solid schedule and won convincingly most of the time.
USC stays #7 and Penn State #8, and I don't have to worry any longer about which team I should rank ahead of the other since they should be meeting in the Rose Bowl. As long as USC beats UCLA, which this year seems more certain than ever. And an upset there would settle the question as well.
#9 Boise State and #10 Ball State completed 12-0 seasons, though the latter has a conference championship game left. Oregon's win over Oregon State gives the Broncos their one significant win back, and Ball State has wins over Western and Central Michigan. By that measure, each is the equal of Alabama, but their overall schedules are much weaker.
SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 14 (11-30-2008) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
lw |
# |
Team |
Rec |
Significant wins/losses |
1 |
1. |
Alabama | 12-0 |
w@Georgia41-30 |
2 |
2. |
Texas | 11-1 |
L@TTech39-33;w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24 |
3 |
3. |
Oklahoma | 11-1 |
L=Tex45-35;wTTech65-21,TCU35-7,Cin52-26,@OkSt61-41 |
4 |
4. |
Texas Tech | 11-1 |
L@OK65-21;wTexas39-33,OklaSt56-20 |
5 |
5. |
Utah | 12-0 |
wTCU13-10,BYU48-24,OreSt31-28 |
6 |
6. |
Florida | 11-1 |
L Miss31-30;w=GA49-10,@FSU45-15 |
7 |
7. |
Southern Cal | 10-1 |
L@OreSt27-21;wOhioState35-3,Oregon44-10 |
8 |
8. |
Penn State | 11-1 |
L@Iowa24-23;w@OSU13-6,MichSt48-19,OreSt45-14 |
9 |
9. |
Boise State | 12-0 |
w@Oregon37-32 |
10 |
10. |
Ball State | 12-0 |
wWMich45-22,@CMich31-24 |
11 |
11. |
Ohio State | 10-2 |
L@USC35-3,PennSt13-6;wMichSt45-7,@Nwest45-10 |
14 |
12. |
TCU | 10-2 |
L@OK35-7,@Utah13-10;wBYU32-7 |
13 |
13. |
Oklahoma St. | 9-3 |
L@TTech56-20,@Tex28-24,OK61-41;w@Mizz28-23 |
16 |
14. |
Cincinnati | 10-2 |
L@UConn40-16,@OK52-26;wPitt28-21 |
19 |
15. |
Georgia Tech | 9-3 |
L@Vt20-17,Va24-17,@NC28-7;w@GA45-42,@BC19-16,FSU31-28 |
17 |
16. |
BYU | 10-2 |
L@TCU32-7,@Utah48-24 |
12 |
17. |
Georgia | 9-3 |
L GT45-42,=FLA49-10,Ala41-30;CMich56-17 |
23 |
18. |
Oregon | 9-3 |
L@Cal26-16,BoiseSt37-32,@USC44-10;w@OreSt65-38 |
15 |
19. |
Missouri | 9-3 |
L=KU40-37,OKst28-23,@Tex56-31 |
20 |
20. |
Boston Coll. | 9-3 |
L Clem27-21, @UNC45-24,GTech19-16;w@FSU27-17 |
24 |
21. |
Michigan St. | 9-3 |
L@Cal38-31,OSU45-7,@PennSt48-19;w@Nwest37-20 |
25t |
22. |
Tulsa | 10-2 |
L@Arkansas30-23,@Houston70-30 |
-- |
23. |
Pittsburgh | 8-3 |
L BowlGr27-17,L Rutgers54-34,@Cincy28-21 |
21 |
24. |
W. Michigan | 9-3 |
L@Nebraska47-24,@CMich38-28,@BallSt45-22 |
-- |
25. |
Northwestern | 9-3 |
L@Ind21-19,MichSt37-20,OSU45-10 |
| out: | ||||
18 |
-- |
Oregon State | 8-4 |
L@Stan36-28,@PSU45-14,@Utah31-28,Ore65-38;wUSC27-21 |
22 |
-- |
Florida State | 8-4 |
L Wake12-3,@GTech31-28,BC27-17,FL45-15 |
25t |
-- |
C. Michigan | 8-4 |
L@EMi56-52,@Pur35-32,@GA56-17,BallSt31-24;wWMi38-28 |
Ohio State stayed at #11 and Oklahoma State remained #13 despite their loss to Oklahoma. Considering that their three losses are to the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th ranked teams and they have a solid road win over Missouri, they needn't fall. TCU does jump them into the #12 spot, as former #12 Georgia drops to 17th. The team that beat them, Georgia Tech, makes the top 15; currently the Yellow Jackets have three losses to 4-loss teams and two wins over top 25 teams. BYU edges up a spot to #16.
Oregon makes a big move up to #18, and Oregon State falls out for now—they'll be back in for sure if they win their bowl game. Missouri slides to 19th after losing to Kansas, and may fall out next week (of course, beating the Sooners would improve their stock immensely). Boston College, who will play for a BCS berth, and Michigan State follow. Tulsa barely beat Marshall and is easily the lamest 2-loss team; they also have a conference title game, against East Carolina, coming up.
Tulsa does have a win over Rice, the only 9-3 team left out of the rankings this week; if Tulsa loses next week, both teams will likely be on the outside until the bowl season. I made a conscious decision not to include any four-loss teams this week, since the three with big upset wins—Oregon State, Mississippi, and Iowa—are all very close and including one of them would confuse the situation at the top. But next week some of them may enter, though Iowa is stuck behind both #23 Pittsburgh and #25 Northwestern, even if either of the latter suffer their 4th loss, which Pitt might have against Connecticut next week.
Along with the Beavers, Florida State and Central Michigan dropped out. The former lost big to Florida, but that's not so bad that a bowl win can't get them back in. The latter lost to 3-9 Eastern Michigan, which gives the Chippewas two losses to losing teams and probably precludes them from making the final top 25.
Thoughts: Big Twelve rankings; Utah's BCS bowl Orange; the Oregon State-Penn State rematch
Some thoughts after Saturday's action:
With Oklahoma having beaten Texas Tech, who beat Texas, who beat Oklahoma, there is of course a "round-robin" situation where each team is 10-1 and has beaten and lost to one of the other. Normally this would be a tough situation, where you'd have to ignore one of the losses and place someone on top, but Oklahoma's convincing win made it clear that Texas Tech should not be that top team.
Further, Texas' win on a neutral field, combined with their last-second loss, makes them the most logical top team going by head-to-head competition principles. Voters (remember, the criteria for breaking a three-way tie is whichever team is highest in the BCS rankings) may jump Oklahoma over Texas on the idea that they are playing better "at the moment," but taking the viewpoint that the entire season is what matters—and with no playoff, the idea that the entire season matters is paramount—I would have to rank Texas at the top of the three teams.
The computers will probably agree with that assessment. Since margin of victory is not used, there is no reason they will elevate Oklahoma over Texas at this point. But another win over Oklahoma State might be enough for at least some of the computers, and enough of the pollsters, to put the Sooners ahead of the Longhorns. Currently in my Success power rating—a BCS style computer rating in that it does not consider victory margin—Texas is #2, and Oklahoma #4.
Oklahoma still has to beat Oklahoma State, and if the Sooners are the South rep, Missouri. So they may yet stumble. If they do, it leaves Texas and Texas Tech. Head-to-head, the Red Raiders win that one, though I'd find it far less objectionable if Texas were ranked ahead of them than if Oklahoma is currently ranked ahead of Texas.
Seeing Oklahoma in the Big Twelve title game is not a bad thing, as they have yet to play Missouri, and Texas already has. I don't like rematch games where the first game was a convincing win (see the third item). But ultimately even if Oklahoma wins out I put Texas ahead of them at least until the bowl games are played. Then it's another judgement call depending on who they each play and what happens.
I've recently seen articles that say Utah "is going to a BCS bowl, probably the Fiesta" and "probably the Sugar." According to what I can suss out, the Orange bowl has last pick among the bowls that have to fill slots. It seems that Utah will go in the last open slot, meaning they'd play a middling ACC team, much like the middling Big East team they beat in 2004.
If all goes according to "plan," which it never does, Florida beats Alabama and goes to the BCS title game. Oklahoma wins out, wins the Big Twelve, and is also in the title game. The Sugar and Fiesta pick replacements (Alabama and Texas), the Rose is filled by USC/Oregon State vs. Penn State, and the Orange has perhaps Georgia Tech.
So seven slots are filled: Two in the BCS title game, two in the Rose, one each in the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange. Then the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange pick their 2nd team, in order. If USC is available at this time they will be taken first; then Ohio State, Georgia, possibly some Big Twelve teams, all will be likely be taken ahead of Utah, who will end up in the Orange bowl.
Traditionally, the Orange Bowl was the Big Twelve's bowl, but for some reason the ACC was given the bowl as its link (probably due to Miami and Florida State). So while there could be an interesting matchup with Texas and USC in the Fiesta, the Orange is looking like this year's dud.
The only hope is that Utah gets selected in one of the other two bowl games. A Utah-Alabama matchup in the Sugar would be nice, but it requires that USC be in the Rose Bowl (see below).
Update: I realize I hadn't mapped out the possibilities correctly. The Big East rep (probably Cincinnati) is in the mix as well, and Utah probably will be chosen ahead of them. So the Sugar bowl really is the most likely place for the Utes. And the Orange Bowl will be exactly as it should be: a poor, inconsistent ACC rep vs. a poor, inconsistend Big East rep.
It looks like it's going to happen. Oregon State beat Arizona and now just has to get past Oregon at home to make it to the Rose Bowl. Rivalry games are tough and Oregon has a chance, but right now it's looking more and more like the Beavers will be in Pasadena.
Congratulations will be due Oregon State if this happens, of course; they've earned it under the rules, they had to beat USC, and they're playing far better than they did early in the season. But none of that makes up for the fact that this game will stink for two reasons.
One, a USC-Penn State matchup in the Rose Bowl would be a great thing. Two classic teams, both presumably 11-1, vye for a higher position in the rankings and possibly some #1 votes. Joe Paterno vs. Pete Carroll. Enough said.
Two, Penn State already beat Oregon State 45-14 earlier this year. They should not have to "prove it" after that convincing of a win. As bad as rematch games are when the first one was close, they are a joke when the first game was a blowout. From Oregon State's point of view it's a win-win, as they have a shot at avenging the loss. From anyone else's point of view, the first game is sufficient and should stand. The rematch would undoubtedly be closer, as Oregon State has improved and rematches are almost always closer. But that doesn't take away from the fact that very few people would be exited about this game, and the college football world will be rooting for the Ducks next week. Sorry, Beaver faithful, but it's true.
Remember when everyone was afraid that the Rose Bowl would be an Ohio State-USC rematch? I don't know which is worse, that outcome or the present one. An Oregon win next week could avert that possibility, but remember, if USC sneaks into the BCS title game, then Oregon would be going to the Rose Bowl. Which isn't a whole lot better than Oregon State, but at least it averts the blowout-rematch scenario.
I guess I just like the BCS bowls to be filled with teams with 2 losses or fewer. This year, between the Rose Bowl, ACC, and Big East, there could be three BCS bowls with three-loss teams, while several undefeated and 1-loss teams end up in the lesser bowls.
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