Week nine. Getting down to the nitty gritty, I forced myself to pick four upsets (highlighted in red) among top 25 teams this week.
Auburn (5-3) at West Virginia (5-2)
Vegas Line: WVA by 3
Strength Power Rating: West Virginia 11, Auburn 11
% Chance to win: 50/50
Yardage Projection: West Virginia 13, Auburn 13
One of my pre-season top ten games has turned into a bust. West Virginia is still undefeated in the Big East, but they've played only the easiests teams in the league. Auburn has lost thrice in the SEC and is playing for pride, but has to be demoralized while West Virginia is on a tepid winning streak. Both teams suck on offense and are good on defense, hence the low score projections. Given the complete toss-up projected by my computers, I'll go with Vegas and the home team and say the Mountaineers win in overtime by a field goal.
VERDICT: West Virginia 16, Auburn 13
#5 Oklahoma State (7-0) at #1 Texas (7-0)
Vegas Line: Texas by 12
Strength Power Rating: Texas 39, Oklahoma State 23
% Chance to win: Texas 92%
Yardage Projection: Texas 37, Oklahoma State 21
The third stage in the Longhorns' ring of fire. Given the recent history of these games, the Cowboys will lead 23-7 in the first half, only to see Texas score 30 unanswered points in the 2nd half. The Longhorns are due for a letdown, so this scenario makes sense with that aspect as well.
VERDICT: Texas 37, Oklahoma State 23
#3 Penn State (8-0) at #11 Ohio State (7-1)
Vegas Line: Penn State by 2.5
Strength Power Rating: Penn State 32, Ohio State 19
% Chance to win: Penn State 81%
Yardage Projection: Penn State 20, Ohio State 13
No one need worry about Ohio State getting to the national title game, even if they win out. There is reason to worry about a USC-Ohio State Rose Bowl rematch, which would be just as pointless. But the Nittany Lions will be up for this game, and the Buckeyes don't have the offense to keep up with them. This is not the game where Penn State gets upset; that comes against Iowa.
VERDICT: Penn State 23, Ohio State 17
#8 USC (5-1) at Arizona (5-2)
Vegas Line: USC by 16
Strength Power Rating: USC 38, Arizona 18
% Chance to win: USC 88%
Yardage Projection: USC 35, Arizona 14
After USC beat Washington State 69-0, the "most talented team" talk started right back up, since no one can call them the best after they lost a game. Beating the Cougars shouldn't have registered on the chart at all, but the Trojans have been playing dynamite football: 138 points in a row and counting. Like we've seen before it doesn't take a lot to get this team overconfident. They probably won't consider Arizona much of a threat, since the Wildcats lost to New Mexico and Stanford. But Arizona has been looking ahead to this game all year. I think the Trojans are going to lose a second game at some point this year, and it's hard to find another remote possibility on the schedule, so it'll have to be this game.
VERDICT: Arizona 33, USC 23
#9 Georgia (6-1) at #18 LSU (5-1)
Vegas Line: LSU by 2
Strength Power Rating: Georgia 34, LSU 27
% Chance to win: Georgia 69%
Yardage Projection: Georgia 33, LSU 30
Even though LSU is favored by the oddsmakers, I'm not counting this pick as an 'upset', which I'm defining in terms of ranking. So taking Georgia here is just because I expect them to win, and fairly easily. LSU has gotten by on an easy schedule that hasn't exposed their defensive deficiencies. Georgia will take care of that on the ground and through the air.
VERDICT: Georgia 35, LSU 24
Kentucky (5-2) at #12 Florida (5-1)
Vegas Line: Florida by 24.5
Strength Power Rating: Florida 30, Kentucky 7
% Chance to win: Florida 93%
Yardage Projection: Florida 30, Kentucky 7
Well, I just chickened out. I was all set to pick this as a huge upset, even in face of the 24.5 point spread, the 93% chance given by my computers, and the 30-7 projection from the Strength ratings. But when the yardage rating confirmed that exact tally, I couldn't hold out. I'll have to find another upset somewhere else, even though this one seemed ripe. Kentucky has been dissed and dismissed, while Florida, everyone assumes, is marching back toward an SEC championship. Time for Tebow and co. to lose another game. But not this week. I'll take South Carolina in a few weeks. I promise.
VERDICT: Florida 30, Kentucky 7
#4 Texas Tech (7-0) at #22 Kansas (5-2)
Vegas Line: Kansas by 1.5
Strength Power Rating: Texas Tech 32, Kansas 29
% Chance to win: Texas Tech 53%
Yardage Projection: Texas Tech 42, Kansas 35
Ok, then I'll take this one as an upset instead. It also offsets the Georgia-LSU game, which doesn't count as an upset even though LSU is favored; here, Kansas is favored, and I'm taking them, but it does count as an upset since Tech is rated higher. Either way it evens out. Though Tech may be the better team, this is their first encounter with a top 25 level squad, and it's on the road. Should be close, though, and a good indicator for both teams true quality level.
VERDICT: Kansas 35, Texas Tech 32
#24 Boston College (5-1) at North Carolina (5-2)
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3
Strength Power Rating: North Carolina 27, Boston College 21
% Chance to win: North Carolina 62%
Yardage Projection: Boston College 28, North Carolina 13
Another cheap pick for an upset, as UNC is favored by a field goal. But my next pick will make up for it. Here, I think UNC is the better team, and is at home, so what's stopping them? Maybe B.C. has momentum after winning last week while the Tar Heels lost, but I'm not sold on Boston College yet. North Carolina's yardage stats might make me reconsider this one, though, and switch to Purdue beating Minnesota as my last upset. Crap, I'm taking the Eagles, since they're great against the run and UNC can't pass to make up for it. It's another upset pick vs. the spread, though.
VERDICT: Boston College 23, North Carolina 20
#2 Alabama (7-0) at Tennessee (3-4)
Vegas Line: Alabama by 6.5
Strength Power Rating: Alabama 23, Tennessee 15
% Chance to win: Alabama 73%
Yardage Projection: Alabama 14, Tennessee 13
I'm taking way too many top ten upsets, but I figure either the USC one or this one will hit and the other will be a blowout. This one is probably a lot more likely though. Alabama has been lackluster at times, especially on offense, which gives the hapless Volunteers a chance to partially redeem their season.
VERDICT: Tennessee 14, Alabama 13
#25 Minnesota (6-1) at Purdue (2-5)
Vegas Line: Purdue by 1
Strength Power Rating: Minnesota 26, Purdue 21
% Chance to win: Minnesota 59%
Yardage Projection: Purdue 37, Minnesota 27
Minnesota's luck can't go on forever can it? The Gophers are like Illinois last year, only probably not nearly as good. They're greatly improved, but even greatly improved teams have a relapse now and then. Illinois relapsed against Iowa last season, and Minnesota will relapse here against a Purdue team that has had very bad luck and is due for a break.
VERDICT: Purdue 39, Minnesota 26
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