Eight undefeated teams, nine 1-loss teams, and 24 2-loss teams are left in college football Division I-A. Two of the undefeated teams (Texas and Texas Tech) play each other, while another (Tulsa) faces what was (formerly) expected to be its biggest challenge of the season against Arkansas. Meanwhile Penn State is idle and Alabama might as well be (although Arkansas State isn't that bad this year, and the Tide lost to a Sun Bowl team last year). Here are the best games for this weekend:
South Florida (6-2) at #25 Cincinnati (5-2)
Point Spread: USF by 3
Strength Power Rating Projection: USF 26, Cincy 21
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: USF 57%
Yardage Comparison Projection:USF 27, Cincy 17
Cincinnati has big time quarterback problems. That's enough for me to take the Bulls here.
Final Verdict: South Florida 24, Cincinnati 13
Northwestern (6-2) at #18 Minnesota (6-1)
Point Spread: Minnesota by 7
Strength Power Rating Projection: Minnesota 25, Northwestern 19
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Minnesota 64%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Northwestern 29, Minnesota 28
Northwestern's luck ran out the last few weeks, now maybe it's Minnesota's turn. Of course I called that last week too and the Gophers won again. So I'll just take the Wildcats against the spread.
Final Verdict: Minnesota 28, Northwestern 25
Air Force (6-2) at Army (3-5)
Point Spread: Air Force by 8.5
Strength Power Rating Projection: Air Force 22, Army 8
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Air Force 78%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Air Force 14, Army 10
This could be a game where neither team throws a pass. Both teams are in the top 10 in rushing offense and bottom three in passing. Air Force is the better club on both sides of the ball, but since they both know what the other does pretty well it might be closer than expected. I'm leaning on the yardage numbers to pick my final score.
Final Verdict: Air Force 14, Army 10
West Virginia (5-2) at #21 Connecticut (6-2)
Point Spread: West Virginia by 3.5
Strength Power Rating Projection: Connecticut 24, West Virginia 16
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Connecticut 63%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Connecticut 28, West Virginia 21
The Mountaineers have won four games in a row, but didn't really beat any noteworthy teams. Their offense has struggled all year except for the 2nd half against Auburn. Connecticut should win another close one.
Final Verdict: Connecticut 31, West Virginia 28
#14 Tulsa (8-0) at Arkansas (3-5)
Point Spread: Tulsa by 7
Strength Power Rating Projection: Tulsa 48, Arkansas 29
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Tulsa 83%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Tulsa 46, Arkansas 35
This is the one game I projected Tulsa to lose pre-season. But since then the Golden Hurricane have (most of the time) exceeded expectations, while Arkansas has struggled even more than I thought, especially on defense. Arkansas' running game led by Michael Smith could give Tulsa's poor defense fits, but David Johnson's passing will cause even worse problems for the Razorback's D. I don't think Tulsa will go undefeated, but now I don't think this one will be the one that gets them.
Final Verdict:Tulsa 49, Arkansas 35
Pittsburgh (5-2) at Notre Dame (5-2)
Point Spread: Notre Dame by 4.5
Strength Power Rating Projection: Notre Dame 29, Pitt 23
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: 57%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Pittsburgh 29, Notre Dame 17
Notre Dame could finish either 6-6 or 9-3. This one will go a long way in determining which path they're going to take. Of course Pittsburgh is so erratic that maybe you can't make a fair judgement about the teams they play. The bottom line for the Irish is that they haven't beaten a remotely good team, but they play well at home. Pitt has actually played better on the road, but again they're a fluky team. Notre Dame will have to pass the ball to beat the Panthers, as they won't be able to run it. I have more faith in the luck of the Irish than Pittsburgh at this point, and—unbelievably, given Charlie Weis' debacle last year—think Notre Dame is a much better-coached team.
Final Verdict: Notre Dame 31, Pittsburgh 29
Arkansas State (4-3) at Alabama (8-0)
Point Spread: Alabama by 23.5
Strength Power Rating Projection: Alabama 35, Arkansas St. 11
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: 91%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Alabama 26, Arkansas St. 10
Louisiana Monroe shocked the Tide last season, so Arkansas State won't sneak up on them in '08. Alabama hasn't looked great the last few weeks and at some point they're in for a loss. I don't think it will be here, or against Auburn or LSU, so I'm guessing the SEC championship game will be a blowout, with Alabama taking the fall, probably against Florida.
Final Verdict:Alabama 30, Arkansas State 10
#23 Oregon (6-2) at California (5-2)
Point Spread: Cal by 3
Strength Power Rating Projection: California 41, Oregon 40
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: California 52%
Yardage Comparison Projection: California 41, Oregon 35
Sometimes when two teams with high-powered offenses and mediocre defenses clash, there is a surprisingly low-scoring game. But it's silly to predict something like that, as it's just an odd fluke. Cal is at home and its defense is a bit better, but I like the Ducks in shootout games. If Cal keeps the score low they'll win, but that's not the expected scenario.
Final Verdict:Oregon 45, California 37
#20 Florida State (6-1) at Georgia Tech (6-2)
Point Spread: Georgia Tech by 3
Strength Power Rating Projection: FSU 24, Georgia Tech 23
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Georgia Tech 54%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Georgia Tech 28, FSU 21
Georgia Tech was playing well until they became the latest victim of Virginia's unexpected resurgence. The Seminoles have waltzed through the easier part of their schedule and now have a few challenges. Interestingly, my Strength power rating picks FSU by 3 while giving Tech a 54% chance to win. One of the Yellowjacket's games drops their average rating quite a bit, explaining the disconnect. The bottom line is rushing defense, since Tech runs the ball a lot. The Seminole's rushing defense is decent, and Tech's rarely-used passing game can't take advantage of FSU's poor pass defense.
Final Verdict: Florida State 35, Georgia Tech 24
#11 Florida (6-1) vs. #9 Georgia (7-1)
Point Spread: Florida by 6.5
Strength Power Rating Projection: Florida 38, Georgia 22
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Florida 80%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Florida 28, Georgia 28
While the Strength power rating projects a certain Florida blowout, the yardage analysis sees the game as a toss-up. That's because Florida's scoring in unconventional; since the first game against Hawaii they've been scoring on special teams and on short drives set up by turnovers. So when you compare offensive yardages, things look even, but special teams—and the revenge factor—will give Florida a big advantage. Florida's defense will want to redeem itself against Knowshon Moreno, too.
Final Verdict: Florida 31, Georgia 14
#1 Texas (8-0) at #4 Texas Tech (8-0)
Point Spread: Texas by 3
Strength Power Rating Projection: Texas 37, Texas Tech 29
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Texas 73%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Texas Tech 38, Texas 31
This is an interesting matchup. Texas's offense is better balanced between passing and running, even with Colt McCoy as the leading rusher—perhaps because of it, as quarterbacks with any kind of running threat cause problems for defenses. But Texas Tech is more consistent on defense, with the Longhorns being quite poor against the pass—a bad thing to be when going up against Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree. Bottom line, I think Texas' secondary will rise to the occasion, and while they can't shut down Crabtree, they are #2 in sacks and will harass Harrell like no one has this season. Tech's defense won't have an answer for McCoy's near perfect touch and ability to run. The Red Raiders have better balance—between running and passing, and between offense and defense—than they have in years, but it's not quite enough to take them to an undefeated season, even if they manage to pull this game out.
Final Verdict: Texas 34, Texas Tech 31
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