Now at the mid-point of the season, here are the top 20 teams in the SportsRatings Overall (or Combined) Power Rating:
# Team rec Overall Strength Success
1. Texas 6-0 44.33 [ 1] 34.84 [ 3] 9.49 [ 1]
2. Penn State 7-0 43.21 [ 2] 36.27 [ 1] 6.94 [ 5]
3. Southern Cal 4-1 40.43 [ 3] 35.54 [ 2] 4.88 [11]
4. Oklahoma 5-1 36.85 [ 4] 32.29 [ 4] 4.55 [12]
5. Missouri 5-1 35.19 [ 5] 32.03 [ 5] 3.16 [25]
6. Alabama 6-0 31.30 [ 6] 22.49 [ 7] 8.81 [ 2]
7. Florida 5-1 30.16 [ 7] 26.82 [ 6] 3.33 [23]
8. Oklahoma St 6-0 29.90 [ 8] 22.34 [ 8] 7.56 [ 3]
9. Texas Tech 6-0 27.80 [ 9] 22.19 [ 9] 5.61 [ 8]
10. Georgia 5-1 25.64 [10] 22.08 [10] 3.55 [19]
11. Georgia Tech 5-1 25.06 [11] 21.25 [11] 3.81 [18]
12. California 4-1 23.16 [12] 18.98 [12] 4.17 [15]
13. North Carolina 5-1 22.44 [13] 18.13 [14] 4.31 [14]
14. Ball St 7-0 22.44 [14] 15.92 [19] 6.51 [ 6]
15. Michigan St 6-1 21.07 [15] 16.10 [18] 4.97 [10]
16. TCU 6-1 20.75 [16] 17.50 [15] 3.24 [24]
17. Utah 7-0 20.33 [17] 13.13 [27] 7.20 [ 4]
18. Oregon St 3-3 20.30 [18] 18.24 [13] 2.05 [34]
19. Boise St 5-0 19.30 [19] 14.11 [23] 5.19 [ 9]
20. Brigham Young 6-0 19.04 [20] 15.21 [20] 3.82 [17]
It's interesting to note that the top 10 teams are the same ones, in a somewhat different order, as the teams in the AP top ten, except BYU in in AP's top ten in place of Missouri.
Georgia Tech is the highest ranked team here that isn't in the AP poll. They catch a break here because games with Division I-AA teams, such as their squeaker win over Gardner-Webb, don't count much (this is to reduce the effect of beating up on such teams). In the 727-team power rating, which includes all games in all divisions, the Yellow Jackets are only 31st.
The Success Ratings below show how teams have performed so far this year, without considering score margin:
# Team rec Overall Strength Success
1. Texas 6-0 44.33 [ 1] 34.84 [ 3] 9.49 [ 1]
2. Alabama 6-0 31.30 [ 6] 22.49 [ 7] 8.81 [ 2]
3. Oklahoma St 6-0 29.90 [ 8] 22.34 [ 8] 7.56 [ 3]
4. Utah 7-0 20.33 [17] 13.13 [27] 7.20 [ 4]
5. Penn State 7-0 43.21 [ 2] 36.27 [ 1] 6.94 [ 5]
6. Ball St 7-0 22.44 [14] 15.92 [19] 6.51 [ 6]
7. Virginia Tech 5-1 18.45 [21] 12.37 [31] 6.08 [ 7]
8. Texas Tech 6-0 27.80 [ 9] 22.19 [ 9] 5.61 [ 8]
9. Boise St 5-0 19.30 [19] 14.11 [23] 5.19 [ 9]
10. Michigan St 6-1 21.07 [15] 16.10 [18] 4.97 [10]
Note that there are only two teams with losses in the top ten. One surprise is Michigan State, who lost to 4-1 Cal and beat 4-2 Notre Dame and 5-1 Northwestern. Undefeated BYU and Tulsa are in the 2nd 10 as their opposition hasn't proven very sturdy.
Which teams will do the best from here? Probably the ones high in the Strength Ratings:
# Team rec Overall Strength Success
1. Penn State 7-0 43.21 [ 2] 36.27 [ 1] 6.94 [ 5]
2. Southern Cal 4-1 40.43 [ 3] 35.54 [ 2] 4.88 [11]
3. Texas 6-0 44.33 [ 1] 34.84 [ 3] 9.49 [ 1]
4. Oklahoma 5-1 36.85 [ 4] 32.29 [ 4] 4.55 [12]
5. Missouri 5-1 35.19 [ 5] 32.03 [ 5] 3.16 [25]
6. Florida 5-1 30.16 [ 7] 26.82 [ 6] 3.33 [23]
7. Alabama 6-0 31.30 [ 6] 22.49 [ 7] 8.81 [ 2]
8. Oklahoma St 6-0 29.90 [ 8] 22.34 [ 8] 7.56 [ 3]
9. Texas Tech 6-0 27.80 [ 9] 22.19 [ 9] 5.61 [ 8]
10. Georgia 5-1 25.64 [10] 22.08 [10] 3.55 [19]
There are five Big Twelve teams in the top ten, so expect more big battles and upsets like we saw on Saturday from that conference. The SEC has some big powers too, with Florida, Alabama, and Georgia rating in the top ten, but LSU (59th) and Auburn (62nd) don't look very scary any more.
It's entirely possible that the best teams from those conferences—both of whom play a championship game at the end of the season—will knock each other off enough that Penn State and USC could end up playing in the national title game. Both the Nittany Lions and the Trojans have a comparatively easy schedule the rest of the way compared to the gauntlet that any SEC or Big 12 team has to face.
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