Ok, we get it already—the Big Ten gets no respect. Despite the obvious shortcomings of the Big East, ACC, and this year especially, the Pac 10, it's the Big Ten that is summarily dismissed most often. Now that Penn State is looking to go undefeated, we have some saying an undefeated Penn State isn't worthy, while the rest are saying the Lions' last three games are walkovers.
An example: this column by Mike Huguenin is par for the course, as he writes: the only way Penn State doesn't finish unbeaten in the regular season is if it beats itself.
Admittedly, the Nittany Lions cleared their toughest hurdle by beating Ohio State on the road. Looking at their three remaining foes (Iowa on the road, Indiana and Michigan State at home) doesn't strike fear into hearts the way Texas Tech's remaining schedule might. Penn State will be favored in all three games, and probably should finish 12-0. But the sportswriting nation is selling the Big Ten short.
First of all, Iowa. The Hawkeyes are only 5-3 and have played sloppy football at times. But those losses were to three winning teams: 5-2 Pittsburgh on the road; 7-2 Michigan State, also on the road; and 6-2 Northwestern at home. More importantly, the three losses were by a combined eight points—Iowa could very easily have won each of those games, and if they had they be 8-0, and this game would be seen as a huge hurdle in Penn State's way. Which is how it should be seen. Penn State's rushing defense did a great job against Beanie Wells, but Iowa's Shonn Greene could be an even tougher test. And the Hawks' defense is just as good as Ohio State's, so the game could be very low scoring, making it anybody's ball game. Check out the power ratings if you are skeptical: Iowa is firmly in the top 25 when judged on a pure-points basis such as my Strength ratings, and Sagarin's Predictor has them #10 to Penn State's #3. This is a perfect trap game for Penn State to fall into.
Next, Indiana. This is clearly the least worrisome game remaining, but 3-5 Indiana is coming off a win over Northwestern and has lost only to decent teams: undefeated Ball State, Michigan State, 7-1 Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. Quarterback Kellen Lewis has been injured but could be back for the Penn State game. Still, as it takes place in College Station, this is the one game that should be a gimme for the Lions, though there's a chance the Hoosiers prove pesky.
Finally, Michigan State. This is another home game for the Lions, and because the Spartans were so thoroughly spanked by Ohio State many are discounting their threat. But at 7-2 they should be treated with a bit more respect, and we've seen many strange things happen to teams on their final week of the season—remember West Virginia vs. Pitt last year? Penn State will have to be focused, especially if either of the teams ahead of them have lost by this time, causing visions of a national championship to dance in front of them mesmerizingly.
That's no cakewalk. As West Virginia-Pitt and USC-Stanford/Oregon State proved, no conference game against a capable foe is a given, not even at home. Penn State won't have to "beat themselves" to lose a game; their opponents will be more than happy to try to do that for them.
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