SportsRatings: College Football

Another O.C. Bites the Dust: Auburn fires Offensive Coordinator Franklin

Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville reversed himself and fired offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, whose spread offense didn't catch on with the Tigers. Auburn averaged 19 points a game, scoring only 3 points against Mississippi State and 13 in a loss to Vanderbilt last week.

Tuberville had voiced support for Franklin just days ago. Most observers didn't think Franklin's offense was close to fully implemented or used at Auburn, which raises the question of how much authority Franklin had over the playbook.

Whatever the case may be, Auburn's O wasn't getting the job done. When adjusted for opposition, Auburn's offense ranked just 102nd in the nation in scoring, and the latest yardage stats show that the Tigers were 96th in passing offense, 69th in rushing offense, and 103rd in total yardage so far in 2008.

The person hired to replace Franklin will be the team's sixth offensive coordinator in the last eight years, starting with Noel Mazzone's final year in 2001. After Bobby Petrino left voluntarily after the 2002 season, all since have departed due to dismissal.

Job Security? Auburn's offensive coordinators

Year	coordinator
1995-2001	Noel Mazzone
2002	Bobby Petrino
2003	Hugh Nall
2004-Dec, 2007	Al Borges
Dec, 2007 - Oct, 2008	Tony Franklin
Oct, 2008	???

We think that whoever gets the job as Auburn's new O.C. should write into his contract a Wall-Street-style Golden Parachute for his inevitable firing. Either that or Tuberville should stop passing the buck and just take over the offense himself. New offenses take time to gain traction but clearly something was up in Auburn making it harder for Franklin to do his job.

Adjusted Yardage Stats finally done: week 6

Ok, I finally got around to running the yardage stats for this season and I'll be keeping them updated now. Here are some interesting findings from week 6:

Total Offense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total (rank) Rush (rank)  Pass (rank)
1.   Texas Tech                   5-0   579.3 [  1]  160.6 [ 52]  418.6 [  1]
2.   Missouri                     5-0   575.6 [  2]  215.9 [ 16]  359.6 [  3]
3.   Houston                      2-3   565.3 [  3]  167.8 [ 49]  397.4 [  2]
4.   Oklahoma                     5-0   551.0 [  4]  196.7 [ 27]  354.3 [  4]
5.   Tulsa                        5-0   536.3 [  5]  211.7 [ 18]  324.5 [  6]
6.   Louisiana-Lafayette          2-3   504.3 [  6]  314.4 [  3]  189.8 [ 89]
7.   Oklahoma St                  5-0   483.9 [  7]  195.7 [ 28]  288.1 [ 15]
8.   Oregon St                    2-3   478.5 [  8]  183.1 [ 35]  295.3 [ 11]
9.   Southern Cal                 3-1   478.1 [  9]  151.3 [ 60]  326.8 [  5]
10.  Nevada                       3-2   477.9 [ 10]  275.2 [  4]  202.6 [ 73]

No big surprise here: Texas Tech and Missouri are on top, with Oklahoma, Tulsa, and Oklahoma State (who are in the top 5 in scoring offense) also in the top ten. Oregon State and Southern Cal are not surprising, but maybe Houston, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Nevada are.

The Red Raiders were #1 at the end of last year, but this time their rushing offense is a respectable #52 in stead of last season's #118. With more balance in their attack, teams can't just focus solely on stopping the pass. Most of the teams in the top ten are pass-happy teams, but Lafayette and Nevada are run-focused, while Oklahoma State is almost evenly balanced.

Passing Offense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
1.   Texas Tech                   5-0   579.3 [  1]  160.6 [ 52]  418.6 [  1]
2.   Houston                      2-3   565.3 [  3]  167.8 [ 49]  397.4 [  2]
3.   Missouri                     5-0   575.6 [  2]  215.9 [ 16]  359.6 [  3]
4.   Oklahoma                     5-0   551.0 [  4]  196.7 [ 27]  354.3 [  4]
5.   Southern Cal                 3-1   478.1 [  9]  151.3 [ 60]  326.8 [  5]
6.   Tulsa                        5-0   536.3 [  5]  211.7 [ 18]  324.5 [  6]
7.   Kansas                       4-1   441.3 [ 20]  120.9 [ 91]  320.3 [  7]
8.   Brigham Young                5-0   415.5 [ 26]  107.7 [103]  307.8 [  8]
9.   Middle Tennessee St          2-3   338.9 [ 81]   38.0 [120]  300.8 [  9]
10.  Rice                         3-3   428.2 [ 24]  127.5 [ 80]  300.6 [ 10]

Looks quite a bit like the total yardage list, with six of the same teams. But a few lopsided passing teams make the list, like Kansas, BYU, and Rice. Middle Tennessee State has almost no rushing attack to speak of. This year in the Big Twelve, Kansas may be easier to defend against than Texas Tech, as their running game is inferior.

Rushing Offense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
1.   Navy                         4-2   412.1 [ 30]  330.0 [  1]   82.0 [119]
2.   Georgia Tech                 4-1   441.2 [ 21]  323.1 [  2]  118.1 [113]
3.   Louisiana-Lafayette          2-3   504.3 [  6]  314.4 [  3]  189.8 [ 89]
4.   Nevada                       3-2   477.9 [ 10]  275.2 [  4]  202.6 [ 73]
5.   West Virginia                3-2   372.5 [ 57]  261.3 [  5]  111.1 [115]
6.   Baylor                       2-3   395.8 [ 44]  253.2 [  6]  142.5 [106]
7.   Connecticut                  5-1   379.4 [ 54]  249.2 [  7]  130.2 [109]
8.   Alabama                      6-0   393.7 [ 46]  236.7 [  8]  156.9 [103]
9.   TCU                          5-1   376.2 [ 56]  234.8 [  9]  141.4 [107]
10.  Florida St                   4-1   438.1 [ 22]  227.0 [ 10]  211.0 [ 65]

Speaking of rushing, it's no surprise that Navy is #1 again, nor that Georgia Tech (now led by last season's Navy coach Paul Johnson) is #2. #3 Louisiana-Lafayette may be a surprise though, as well as the fact that their passing game isn't in the bottom 20 like the Midshipmen's and the Yellow Jackets'. In fact all but three of the top ten rushing teams can't really pass to save their lives, and that includes West Virginia who ranks 115th despite an attempt to balance the offense this season.

Now defense, starting with the overall figures:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
1.   TCU                          5-1   196.6 [  1]   30.1 [  2]  166.5 [ 17]
2.   Wake Forest                  3-1   208.6 [  2]   23.1 [  1]  185.5 [ 31]
3.   Southern Cal                 3-1   209.6 [  3]   55.1 [  3]  154.5 [ 11]
4.   South Carolina               4-2   210.9 [  4]   71.2 [ 11]  139.7 [  4]
5.   Auburn                       4-2   253.1 [  5]   85.9 [ 16]  167.2 [ 19]
6.   Boston College               4-1   253.6 [  6]   56.4 [  4]  197.1 [ 44]
7.   Tennessee                    2-3   263.2 [  7]  107.3 [ 25]  155.9 [ 12]
8.   Utah                         6-0   263.6 [  8]   63.1 [  8]  200.5 [ 47]
9.   Florida                      4-1   268.7 [  9]  105.8 [ 24]  162.9 [ 14]
10.  Pittsburgh                   4-1   269.2 [ 10]  112.9 [ 28]  156.2 [ 13]

TCU is currently tops in total defensive yardage, adjusted for their competition (which includes Oklahoma). Florida won games last year based on offense, but they aren't in the top ten in either offensive category but place 9th on defense. Southern Cal and Auburn both make the top 5, but no team ranks in the top ten in both categories, though USC and South Carolina come very close. Another surprise is Ohio State's absense. Last year the Buckeyes were easily #1, leading in both rushing and passing some weeks. They returned 9 starters on defense but aren't as effective this season.

Passing defense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
1.   Ohio State                   5-1   269.8 [ 11]  144.0 [ 61]  125.8 [  1]
2.   Troy                         2-2   358.0 [ 61]  225.2 [113]  132.8 [  2]
3.   Arizona                      4-1   281.9 [ 14]  145.4 [ 64]  136.5 [  3]
4.   South Carolina               4-2   210.9 [  4]   71.2 [ 11]  139.7 [  4]
5.   Colorado                     3-2   313.6 [ 30]  169.3 [ 86]  144.2 [  5]
6.   New Mexico St                2-2   420.9 [107]  274.7 [119]  146.2 [  6]
7.   Louisiana-Lafayette          2-3   382.6 [ 81]  231.6 [114]  150.9 [  7]
8.   Washington St                1-5   410.8 [101]  259.3 [118]  151.4 [  8]
9.   Wyoming                      2-4   338.6 [ 45]  185.9 [ 99]  152.6 [  9]
10.  Oregon St                    2-3   277.4 [ 13]  124.1 [ 43]  153.3 [ 10]

It's not because they can't defend the pass. Once again, the Buckeyes are #1 against the pass, just as they finished the 2007 season. Overall they rank 11th, so it's their (relative) inability to stop the run that's hurting them this year defensively. Several teams on this list have a similar problem, to an even greater degree: Troy, New Mexico State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Washington State rank #2, 6, 7, and 8 against the pass but just 113th, 119th, 114th, and 118th against the run. Often what this means is that teams find it so easy to run against the defense that they don't even need to resort to pass plays that could result in turnovers. Arizona, however, has a profile similar to Ohio State's: they are great against the pass, and simply average against the run.

Another team of note on the list is Oregon State. Last year the Beavers were #1 against the run. All seven starters up front on their defense had to be replaced, and they've fallen from #1 to #43 so far. But their secondary has picked up the slack and ranks in the top ten against the pass.

Rushing defense:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
1.   Wake Forest                  3-1   208.6 [  2]   23.1 [  1]  185.5 [ 31]
2.   TCU                          5-1   196.6 [  1]   30.1 [  2]  166.5 [ 17]
3.   Southern Cal                 3-1   209.6 [  3]   55.1 [  3]  154.5 [ 11]
4.   Boston College               4-1   253.6 [  6]   56.4 [  4]  197.1 [ 44]
5.   Alabama                      6-0   276.1 [ 12]   57.3 [  5]  218.8 [ 72]
6.   Georgia                      4-1   294.8 [ 19]   59.8 [  6]  234.9 [ 89]
7.   Missouri                     5-0   316.9 [ 33]   60.4 [  7]  256.4 [103]
8.   Utah                         6-0   263.6 [  8]   63.1 [  8]  200.5 [ 47]
9.   Texas                        5-0   293.8 [ 18]   65.7 [  9]  228.1 [ 85]
10.  Duke                         3-2   344.0 [ 54]   66.8 [ 10]  277.1 [116]

Wake Forest is the big run-stopper this year. Southern Cal has had an iron run defense for several years now. Boston College is winning games with defense this season instead of through the air, and while Missouri's defense has been questioned, their rushing defense is no slouch. The way to attack the Tigers is definitely through the air. Likewise Duke, who has been sturdy against the run but is in the bottom five against the pass. Texas and Georgia both are relatively weak in the secondary this season.

Overall yardage differential:

Rank Team                         Rec   Yards   Off  Def
1.   Texas Tech                   5-0   279.0    1   23
2.   Southern Cal                 3-1   268.5    9    3
3.   Missouri                     5-0   258.6    2   33
4.   Oklahoma                     5-0   255.0    4   20
5.   Oregon St                    2-3   201.0    8   13
6.   TCU                          5-1   179.6   56    1
7.   Georgia                      4-1   176.5   12   19
8.   Illinois                     3-2   165.3   11   27
9.   Texas                        5-0   152.1   18   18
10.  Utah                         6-0   151.7   27    8

These teams have outgained their opposition the most (adjusted for the opposition, of course). These are the teams with the best balance of strong offenses and defenses that don't yield a lot of yards. Note that return yards are not included in either category.

Only USC has a top ten offense and defense. But five other teams are in the top 25 in both categories. Texas Tech's defense is markedly improved this year; Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas, not surprisingly, are solid both on O and D overall. The surprise may be Oregon State, who has the #8 offense and #13 defense. Though only 2-3, they of course conquered USC and almost beat Utah. Another team that might be destined for an improved record is Illinois.

LA Times article ignorant about computer ratings

Here we go again. The annual article showing a complete lack of understanding about computer rating systems. It's not so much the ignorance that bothers me, but that the authors never even attempt to try to gain an understanding. They just push forth a few examples that make computer rankings look stupid or irrational, and then say "wow, can't possibly make heads or tails of that! Why even try?"

The examples in the article make complete sense to me, mostly because my two rating systems mirror the examples almost exactly. The author (Chris Dufresne) exhibits dismay that Jeff Sagarin's two systems can evaluate the same team differently. Here are his examples:

• USC: #1 but also #16
• Northwestern: #28 and #2
• Florida: #7 and #46

He doesn't even understand how Sagarin combines his ratings. The real numbers he should have cited are:

• USC: #1 (Predictor) and #16 (ELO)
• Northwestern: #35 and #2
• Florida: #2 and #46

Using my comparable ratings (Strength is similar to Predictor, and Success mirrors ELO somewhat):

• USC: #3 and #17
• Northwestern: #37 and #10
• Florida: #6 and #40

So while the differences in my ratings aren't quite as extreme, they're pretty close on the whole. So why the discrepancies between two methods of rating college football teams? There are many reasons.

One is that it's early in the season. With only four or five games to go by, any one game can have a big effect on a score-based system. Likewise, using winning and losing only, five games is a paltry amount to base a rating on. This is why I (and Mr. Sagarin) combine the two systems. When combined, the deficiencies of the two systems are lessened. USC ends up #3, Florida #8, and Northwestern #27 in my Overall ratings. In Sagarin's method, USC is #1, Florida is #7, and Northwestern #28.

Also, early ratings are sometimes handled differently until there are enough "connections" to make valid comparisons. Jeff Sagarin uses some weighing of last year's results until this year has enough data. At this point, according to his site, Predictor (the score-margin system) still is using some weight from last year, while the ELO portion does not. This is naturally going to lead to greater discrepancy between the two.

For the SportsRatings power rating, there is never any use of last year's data. But early ratings are naturally weighed heavier with the results of Strength rather than Success. The Success ratings build throughout the year as teams win games. It's difficult for a Win-Loss-only system to have good results until teams have played about 10 games; until then, the score-based system carries more weight. My motto is "you can't argue with Success" but only at the end of the season. Until then, some results, like Oregon State's upset of USC, can be at least somewhat written off as a fluke.

Dufresne does point out that USC's huge wins over Ohio State and Oregon count for a lot in a margin-based system. From there it doesn't take a lot for the ratings to make perfect sense; why should a 3-1 team by any higher than #16 anyway?

Florida's case is easier to understand. If you only knew that some "Team X" had defeated four teams that were each 2-3, and Team X had lost to another that was 3-3, wouldn't #46 seem like a possible ranking? But knowing that the score of the four wins were 56-10, 26-3, 30-6, and 38-7, and that the loss was by 1 point, you might think it reasonable that they be in the top ten. 

Just a little digging could help people understand the computer rankings, and it's an area that journalists have failed. There is so much coverage of every aspect of college football by the press—offenses, injuries, history, human-interest storylines—but the computer rankings are addresses with either pure ridicule and/or ignorance. There is no attempt to educate the fans on exactly what mechanisms they operate by. Why not? Sure, it may make for a longer, more in-depth article, but it has become a crucial area due to the BCS system. But all we get is "oh my God, look at what those computers did!"

Even for the financial meltdown in the stock market has articles that attempt to explain, step-by-step, just what happened in a technical sense. And that "system" is so complex than no one really understands how it works or where it is going since its scope is so huge. College football has a finite amount of games—it would be possible to show exactly what a computer is "thinking" every step of the way!

Sportswriters do a disservice to fans when they use the computer ratings only to take potshots at the BCS rather than to introduce fans to a very interesting nexus of sports and mathematics. The introduction of computer power ratings has clearly influenced sports and college football in particular. Spreads on games hew close to computer models these days. And pollsters, over the last ten years, have started to refer to power ratings when making their choices. In the early days of Sagarin's ratings being featured in USA Today, the difference between his ratings and the polls was huge. Then many of the teams he ranked high started to "upset" other teams. After years of this happening, you started to see these teams enter the top 25 earlier, and move up faster, than they did in the past.

Now, with spreads and the AP poll mirroring the computer rankings so much, any discrepancy is quickly noted. But does the AP poll make that much sense right now? #24 Pitt beat #19 South Florida who beat #16 Kansas; all teams have 1 loss. Michigan State is at #23 at 5-1, but the 4-1 Cal team that beat them isn't rated. There are justifiable reasons for these discrepancies perhaps. But the polls have another advantage: they are the aggregate of 70 different opinions. Combine 70 computer rankings and you wouldn't be able to pick one or two apart for having widely contrasting results.

The inconsistencies and biases that show up in the human polls are one reason I like computer power ratings. It's also why I base the SportsRatings Top 25—a non-computerized, subjective ranking—on a few basic principles so that teams are ranked in a fair manner. First and foremost, I try to explain why I put teams where I do, so that someone who takes issue with them at least knows where I'm coming from.

It's a lot easier just to mock a rating system than to try and understand it. But I think there is fan interest in knowing how these systems work, and journalists would be doing their job to go a step further in this direction.

Undefeated Big Twelve powers start fighting it out

The top SEC teams have been knocking each other out for a few weeks now, and only three are undefeated at this point: #2 Alabama (6-0), #5 LSU (4-0), and #12 Vanderbilt (5-0). Alabama and LSU play on November 8th; other than that, there will be no more clashes of undefeated SEC teams unless Vandy reaches the championship game unblemished.

But the Big Twelve still has five undefeated teams. Since league play in the Big 12 started a bit later than the SEC, the top teams haven't faced each other yet. But starting this week (week 7) and going forward, there are big matchups each week. We don't know which teams will still be undefeated so we'll just list all games that involve #1 Oklahoma, #3 Missouri, #4 Texas Tech, #6 Texas, and #20 Oklahoma State. #17 Kansas is undefeated in conference play so far so I list them, too.

Week 7 (October 11, 2008)
#6 Texas vs. #1 Oklahoma
#20 Oklahoma State at #4 Missouri

Week 8 (October 18, 2008)
#3 Missouri at #6 Texas
#17 Kansas at #1 Oklahoma

Week 9 (October 25, 2008)
#4 Texas Tech at #17 Kansas
#20 Oklahoma State at #6 Texas

Week 10 (Nov. 1, 2008)
#6 Texas at #4 Texas Tech

Week 11 (Nov. 8, 2008)
#20 Oklahoma State at #4 Texas Tech

Week 12 (Nov. 15, 2008)
#6 Texas at #17 Kansas

Week 13 (Nov. 22, 2008)
#4 Texas Tech at #1 Oklahoma

Week 14 (Nov. 29, 2008)
#17 Kansas vs. #3 Missouri
#1 Oklahoma at #20 Oklahoma State

Week 15 (Dec. 6, 2008)
Big Twelve Championship Game

Note from the schedule above that some teams have an easier road than others, based on how many currently ranked conference foes they face and where they play them. Here is the order from easiest to toughest:

1. Missouri: 3 ranked foes, 1 top ten (omits Texas Tech, Oklahoma); 1.5 road games.
2. Oklahoma: 4 ranked foes, 2 top ten (omits Missouri); 1.5 road games.
3. Texas Tech: 4 ranked foes, 2 top ten (omits Missouri); 2 road games.
4. Kansas: 4 ranked foes, 4 top ten (omits Oklahoma State); 1.5 road games
5. Oklahoma State: 4 ranked foes, 4 top ten (omits Kansas); 3 road games
6. Texas: 5 ranked foes, 3 top ten; 2.5 road games.

Right now it's looking like a Missouri vs. Oklahoma showdown in the championship game, as those two teams are in opposite divisions, are ranked the highest, and have the easiest schedules. Missouri has the easiest path, facing only Texas out of the top tier teams. Oklahoma and Texas Tech play an equivalent schedule, but Tech has 2 true road games.

Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Texas all run a gauntlet. The Jayhawks and Cowboys both play Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Texas, and the Cowboys have three of those games on the road. The Longhorns' path looks easier only because they don't have to play themselves, but they face all five of the currently ranked Big Twelve teams, two on the road, and one (Oklahoma) on a traditional neutral field.

Best Offenses and Defenses as of week 6

Which teams have the best scoring offense and defense so far? Here are the answers based simply on adjusted scoring margins. Offense values are corrected for opponents' defenses, and vice versa. 

NOTE: for my analysis of the SEC vs. the Big 12, click here.

The top 20 best offenses as of October 4, 2008:

  #  Team                         rec    Margin  Off    Def
  1. Missouri                     5-0    39.97  56.10  16.13
  2. Oklahoma                     5-0    34.66  49.62  14.96
  3. Oklahoma St                  5-0    15.40  45.63  30.22
  4. Tulsa                        5-0    21.56  45.13  23.57
  5. Penn State                   6-0    35.57  44.42   8.85
  6. Oregon                       4-2    14.00  43.07  29.06
  7. Texas                        5-0    32.53  41.63   9.10
  8. Southern Cal                 3-1    35.50  41.61   6.11
  9. Georgia                      4-1    23.05  41.01  17.95
 10. Mississippi                  3-3    12.73  40.65  27.92
 11. California                   4-1    15.58  40.36  24.77
 12. Illinois                     3-2    18.68  40.16  21.48
 13. Texas Tech                   5-0    24.51  40.08  15.56
 14. Rice                         3-3     3.21  39.82  36.61
 15. North Carolina               4-1    21.09  37.19  16.10
 16. Utah                         6-0    13.37  36.55  23.17
 17. Kansas St                    3-2     4.13  36.54  32.41
 18. Nebraska                     3-2    12.18  36.42  24.24
 19. Ball St                      6-0    19.31  36.34  17.02
 20. Navy                         4-2     8.49  36.07  27.57

Not a huge surprise that Missouri is #1. After all, they rank 2nd in raw scoring to Tulsa and have played a somewhat tougher schedule, so they are #1 while the Golden Hurricane finish 4th. The popular stat that's been quoted a lot recently is that so far this year, Missouri has not had a three-and-out possession on offense. That's pretty amazing at almost the midway point of the season.

Another fact mentioned a lot two weeks ago was that the SEC had 5 of the top 10 ranked teams in the AP poll, and last week the Big Eight had 4 of the top 8 (and this week 4 of the top 7!). But the offense rankings show something just as impressive: Three of the top four offenses in college football are found in the state of Oklahoma, with the Sooners and Cowboys joining Tulsa in the top four. This is true both for the raw and adjusted figures, so you might be hearing it from a talking head quoting the raw NCAA numbers, but it's true in either case.

Mississippi and Rice both have top 20 offenses but are both just 3-3 on the year. Their problem? The Rebels rank 80th in scoring defense, and the Owls 115th.

Speaking of defense, here are the 20 best defenses in the land right now:

  #  Team                         rec    Margin  Off    Def
  1. Southern Cal                 3-1    35.50  41.61   6.11
  2. Wake Forest                  3-1    15.59  22.92   7.32
  3. Penn State                   6-0    35.57  44.42   8.85
  4. Florida                      4-1    25.49  34.39   8.89
  5. Kentucky                     4-1    19.46  28.44   8.98
  6. Texas                        5-0    32.53  41.63   9.10
  7. TCU                          5-1    20.04  29.41   9.37
  8. South Carolina               4-2    12.42  22.43  10.01
  9. Georgia Tech                 4-1    20.46  32.31  11.84
 10. Auburn                       4-2     5.98  19.21  13.22
 11. Iowa                         3-3    13.73  27.06  13.33
 12. Northwestern                 5-0    10.87  25.04  14.17
 13. Alabama                      6-0    20.91  35.18  14.26
 14. Vanderbilt                   5-0    13.96  28.38  14.42
 15. Arizona St                   2-3     5.85  20.33  14.47
 16. Oklahoma                     5-0    34.66  49.62  14.96
 17. Boise St                     4-0    12.97  28.08  15.10
 18. Texas Tech                   5-0    24.51  40.08  15.56
 19. Temple                       2-4     6.43  22.14  15.70
 20. Ohio State                   5-1    12.05  27.79  15.74

The USC Trojans had a major defensive lapse against Oregon State, but when you consider that they held Ohio State to 3 points and Oregon—still the #6 offense—to just 10, it's hard to argue that they're not the best. Another 3-1 team, Wake Forest, is 2nd; both the Trojans and Deacons hold the average I-A team to a touchdown.

Penn State's D ranks third and Texas is #6; the Nittany Lions and Longhorns are the only team beside USC to rank in the top ten in both offense and defense. That's a good recipe for winning a national championship.

Other interesting teams: Iowa is only 3-3 but has the #11 defense in the country, losing those three games by just nine points total. They would be 6-0 if their offense was decent rather than average (#59).

Florida's defense (#4) ranks much higher than their offense (#27). The Gators had last year's best offense and return all the key players, so it's strange that they aren't producing as much. And Ohio State, who had last year's best defense and almost everyone back, ranks only #20 so far. I'll have the rushing/passing offense and defense numbers ready pretty soon, so we can see just where the Gators and Buckeyes are falling short.

Power Ratings for week 6

SportsRatings Power Rating updates for Week 6

The Strength rating, which measures a team's true strength using compared score margins:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Missouri                     5-0    46.40 [ 1]  39.97 [ 1]   6.43 [ 5]
  2. Penn State                   6-0    41.67 [ 3]  35.57 [ 2]   6.10 [ 7]
  3. Southern Cal                 3-1    39.17 [ 4]  35.50 [ 3]   3.67 [17]
  4. Oklahoma                     5-0    41.77 [ 2]  34.66 [ 4]   7.10 [ 2]
  5. Texas                        5-0    37.76 [ 5]  32.53 [ 5]   5.23 [ 9]
  6. Florida                      4-1    27.20 [ 8]  25.49 [ 6]   1.70 [40]
  7. Texas Tech                   5-0    28.50 [ 7]  24.51 [ 7]   3.98 [13]
  8. Georgia                      4-1    25.84 [ 9]  23.05 [ 8]   2.78 [25]
  9. Tulsa                        5-0    25.54 [10]  21.56 [ 9]   3.97 [14]
 10. North Carolina               4-1    23.99 [12]  21.09 [10]   2.90 [23]

Missouri's big win over Nebraska puts them on top, but note that USC is #3 despite their loss to Oregon State. Beating Oregon by 34 didn't hurt. Tulsa is pretty strong at #9, and North Carolina even makes the top ten.

Now the Success rating, which doesn't use score margin:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Alabama                      6-0    30.17 [ 6]  20.91 [11]   9.25 [ 1]
  2. Oklahoma                     5-0    41.77 [ 2]  34.66 [ 4]   7.10 [ 2]
  3. Vanderbilt                   5-0    20.91 [16]  13.96 [23]   6.95 [ 3]
  4. Utah                         6-0    20.08 [17]  13.37 [27]   6.70 [ 4]
  5. Missouri                     5-0    46.40 [ 1]  39.97 [ 1]   6.43 [ 5]
  6. Ball St                      6-0    25.50 [11]  19.31 [15]   6.18 [ 6]
  7. Penn State                   6-0    41.67 [ 3]  35.57 [ 2]   6.10 [ 7]
  8. Virginia Tech                5-1    18.89 [22]  13.22 [28]   5.67 [ 8]
  9. Texas                        5-0    37.76 [ 5]  32.53 [ 5]   5.23 [ 9]
 10. Northwestern                 5-0    15.93 [27]  10.87 [37]   5.06 [10]
 11. Oklahoma St                  5-0    19.99 [18]  15.40 [20]   4.59 [11]
 12. Boise St                     4-0    17.28 [25]  12.97 [29]   4.30 [12]
 13. Texas Tech                   5-0    28.50 [ 7]  24.51 [ 7]   3.98 [13]
 14. Tulsa                        5-0    25.54 [10]  21.56 [ 9]   3.97 [14]
 15. California                   4-1    19.41 [21]  15.58 [19]   3.82 [15]
 16. Ohio State                   5-1    15.84 [28]  12.05 [35]   3.79 [16]
 17. Southern Cal                 3-1    39.17 [ 4]  35.50 [ 3]   3.67 [17]
 18. Michigan St                  5-1    16.28 [26]  12.76 [30]   3.51 [18]
 19. Georgia Tech                 4-1    23.73 [13]  20.46 [12]   3.26 [19]
 20. LSU                          4-0     9.11 [46]   5.89 [50]   3.22 [20]
 21. Brigham Young                5-0    17.85 [24]  14.74 [21]   3.10 [21]

I list the top 21, which includes all the undefeated teams. Between the undefeated teams it comes down to who has the tougher schedule. Of course playing more games raises the rating too. Ball State's schedule so far has been roughly equal to Penn State's. If both teams remain undefeated, the Lions will gain many more points than the Cardinals though. Of the teams with a loss Virginia Tech stands out, as they have defeated North Carolina and Georgia Tech, who are both 4-1.

The combined rankings give a balance between raw power potential and proven ability to win games:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Missouri                     5-0    46.40 [ 1]  39.97 [ 1]   6.43 [ 5]
  2. Oklahoma                     5-0    41.77 [ 2]  34.66 [ 4]   7.10 [ 2]
  3. Penn State                   6-0    41.67 [ 3]  35.57 [ 2]   6.10 [ 7]
  4. Southern Cal                 3-1    39.17 [ 4]  35.50 [ 3]   3.67 [17]
  5. Texas                        5-0    37.76 [ 5]  32.53 [ 5]   5.23 [ 9]
  6. Alabama                      6-0    30.17 [ 6]  20.91 [11]   9.25 [ 1]
  7. Texas Tech                   5-0    28.50 [ 7]  24.51 [ 7]   3.98 [13]
  8. Florida                      4-1    27.20 [ 8]  25.49 [ 6]   1.70 [40]
  9. Georgia                      4-1    25.84 [ 9]  23.05 [ 8]   2.78 [25]
 10. Tulsa                        5-0    25.54 [10]  21.56 [ 9]   3.97 [14]
 11. Ball St                      6-0    25.50 [11]  19.31 [15]   6.18 [ 6]
 12. North Carolina               4-1    23.99 [12]  21.09 [10]   2.90 [23]
 13. Georgia Tech                 4-1    23.73 [13]  20.46 [12]   3.26 [19]
 14. TCU                          5-1    22.67 [14]  20.04 [13]   2.63 [27]
 15. Kentucky                     4-1    21.60 [15]  19.46 [14]   2.13 [34]
 16. Vanderbilt                   5-0    20.91 [16]  13.96 [23]   6.95 [ 3]
 17. Utah                         6-0    20.08 [17]  13.37 [27]   6.70 [ 4]
 18. Oklahoma St                  5-0    19.99 [18]  15.40 [20]   4.59 [11]
 19. Illinois                     3-2    19.68 [19]  18.68 [16]   0.99 [53]
 20. Oregon St                    2-3    19.45 [20]  17.99 [17]   1.46 [44]
 21. California                   4-1    19.41 [21]  15.58 [19]   3.82 [15]
 22. Virginia Tech                5-1    18.89 [22]  13.22 [28]   5.67 [ 8]
 23. Wake Forest                  3-1    18.30 [23]  15.59 [18]   2.70 [26]
 24. Brigham Young                5-0    17.85 [24]  14.74 [21]   3.10 [21]
 25. Boise St                     4-0    17.28 [25]  12.97 [29]   4.30 [12]
 26. Michigan St                  5-1    16.28 [26]  12.76 [30]   3.51 [18]
 27. Northwestern                 5-0    15.93 [27]  10.87 [37]   5.06 [10]

 46. LSU                          4-0     9.11 [46]   5.89 [50]   3.22 [20]

Some interesting things to note: Oregon State's Strength rating is high (#17) both for beating USC and staying close to Utah, but only the USC win helps their Success rating, which is dragged down by the loss to Stanford. Their other loss was to Penn State.

Louisiana State is only #46 due to a surprisingly terrible strength rating of 50th. A few reasons for this are: Their win over Auburn doesn't count for much because Auburn is ranked even lower; they played Mississippi State pretty close, and the Bulldogs are ranked 86th; a blowout over North Texas doesn't help them since the Mean Green are 118th among Division I-A teams. Finally their convincing win over I-AA power Appalachian State isn't credited much in this I-A only rating. The 727-team all-division rankings better capture that victory's signficance, and LSU is #37 in that ranking, which is still very low for a supposedly top ten team. Over the next few weeks either LSU will be exposed as a fraud, or their rating will increase significantly. The former happened to South Florida (#49 in Strength) last week vs. Pitt.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 6

Not as many upsets this week; in fact, only three in the top 25. The biggest happened on Thursday when Pitt beat #3 South Florida and forced me to violate my ranking guidelines for the first time this season. More on that below. The other top teams played exceptionally well, starting with #1 Oklahoma, who destroyed a good Baylor team 49-17.

Lou Holtz and other talking heads were down on #2 Alabama after they eeked out a win over previous #22 Kentucky. Since the Wildcats were an "unranked" team according to AP and the coaches, some people didn't think the Tide did well. I disagree; just getting the win in such a potential letdown game solidifies their high ranking. After that, pretty much every team down the line had an impressive performance. #3 Missouri crushed Nebraska 52-17; #4 Texas Tech looked like a top ten team for the first time this year, beating Kansas State on the road 58-28; #6 Texas beat Colorado in another potential trap game, 38-14; #7 Penn State handled Purdue in West Lafayette; #8 BYU beat pathetic Utah State on the road 34-14; and #9 USC recovered from a slow start to dominate #19 Oregon 44-10. USC is of course the hardest team to rank logically, as they now have two of the most impressive wins of the year to go with their bizarre loss to 2-3 Oregon State.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 6 (10-05-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Oklahoma	5-0	wCincinnati52-26
2	2.	Alabama	6-0	w@Georgia41-30;wKentucky17-14
4	3.	Missouri	5-0
5	4.	Texas Tech	5-0
6	5.	LSU	4-0	w@Auburn26-21
7	6.	Texas	5-0
8	7.	Penn State	6-0
9	8.	Brigham Young	5-0
10	9.	Southern Cal	3-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOSU35-3;wOre44-10
12	10.	Georgia	4-1	L Alabama41-30
13	11.	Boise State	4-0	w@Oregon37-32
16	12.	Vanderbilt	5-0	wAuburn14-13
17	13.	Utah	6-0
14	14.	Ohio State	5-1	L@USC35-3
	15.	Pittsburgh	4-1	L BowlingGreen27-17;w@USF26-21
3	16.	South Florida	5-1	L Pitt26-21;wKansas37-34
11	17.	Kansas	4-1	L@USF37-34
20	18.	Cincinnati	4-1	L@Oklahoma52-26
21	19.	Florida	4-1	L Mississippi31-30
23	20.	Oklahoma State	5-0
24	21.	Northwestern	5-0
25t	22.	Tulsa	5-0
25t	23.	Ball State	6-0
	24.	Virginia Tech	4-1	L=ECarolina27-22;w@UNC20-17
	25.	North Carolina	4-1	L VTech20-17;wUConn38-12
		dropped out:
15	-	Auburn	4-2	L LSU26-21;L@Vandy14-13
22	-	Kentucky	4-1	L@Alabama17-14
19	-	Oregon	4-2	L BoiseSt37-32;L@USC44-10
18	-	Connecticut	5-1	L@UNC38-12

South Florida, #3 last week, created a mess by losing to Pitt. Combined with the Bulls' previous win over #11 Kansas, it created a 'squeeze' in my rankings and forced me to violate my two basic guidelines I use when making the rakings, which are:

1) Teams don't fall in the rankings unless they lose, and

2) When teams have a similar record, head-to-head competion determines order.

Since 1-loss Pittsburgh had to be ahead of USF, and USF had to be ahead of Kansas, either I had to unfairly move several teams down a notch, or unfairly move Kansas down several notches. Luckily the Jayhawks made the decision easy for me by almost losing to Iowa State, barely winning 35-33 after being down 20-0 at the half. I dropped Kansas from #11 to #17, moving Pitt in at a more reasonable #15 (still overrated considering their loss to 2-3 Bowling Green) and dropping South Florida all the way to #16. 

The second tier of still-undefeated teams fills the #11 through #13 slots. Boise State, whose win over Oregon was much less impressive than USC's, remains just outside the top ten and may be passed by the teams behind them: #12 Vanderbilt, who will advance quickly if they can keep winning in their SEC schedule, and #13 Utah, who jump four spots from #17 and should technically be ahead of USC since they are undefeated and beat Oregon State, the team that beat the Trojans. That's another of my guidelines but is a lot looser than the others. Still, if Utah goes undefeated I'll eventually rank them ahead of Southern Cal.

The third tier of undefeated teams follows #18 Cincinnati and #19 Florida. The three that played last week all did very well, and they remain in the order of their strength of schedule. That is to say, if #20 Oklahoma State goes undefeated, they will advance the furthest, and possibly be #1. #21 Northwestern has a bit less upside but would still beat some good Big Ten teams. #22 Tulsa may or may not make the top ten if undefeated, and #23 Ball State has an even easier slate.

Last week there were ZERO ACC teams in my top 25, but Virginia Tech and North Carolina move in this week. The Tar Heels clubbed Connecticut 38-12, and Virginia Tech beat UNC a few weeks ago and have been impressive since their week 1 debacle vs. East Carolina.

Four teams drop out, but none of them have losses to unranked teams so all could be back. Auburn and Oregon both have two losses, the Tigers to #5 and #12, the Ducks to #9 and #11. Kentucky barely lost to the #2 team, while UConn got smoked by the new #25.

Next week sees a lot of big top 25 matchups, including:

• #1 Oklahoma vs. #6 Texas
• #3 Missouri vs. #20 Oklahoma State
• #5 LSU vs. #19 Florida

as well as two games where prominent 1-loss teams could break into the top 25:

• #21 Northwestern vs. Michigan State (5-1)
• #25 North Carolina vs. Notre Dame (4-1)

Week 6 preview: Picking the upsets

Other than big, anticipated matchups, upsets are what makes following sports fun. Some weeks don't have many marquee matchups, and since we can't appreciate an upset until it's happened, the next-best thing is to speculate about upsets that might happen.

For the first four weeks of the season, there were an average of three upsets per week among the AP top 25 teams. Then last week there were seven such upsets; this raised AP's average to 3.8 per week (by comparison, figures for the SportsRatings Top 25 is 3.4).

So this week I'm going to force myself to pick four upsets among the AP top 25 teams. Making it easier is the fact that one upset has already happened: unranked Pittsburgh beat South Florida (#10 AP, #3 SportsRatings).

Most likely upsets, in order:

• #19 Vanderbilt (4-0) over #13 Auburn (3-1). The Tigers can't get their offense going, so all Vandy needs to do is score 10 points and they have a chance. But that may be a challenge since Auburn has tough D and Vandy has offensive issues of their own. In my rankings Auburn is #15, Vandy #16, so a home win for the Commodores won't be much of an upset. The Tigers are a 3 1/2 point favorite.
• Kansas State (3-1) over #7 Texas Tech (4-0). The Wildcats are the first team with a pulse that the Red Raiders will face, so there's always a chance that things go wrong for them. Probably why Tech is only a one touchdown favorite.
• Kentucky (4-0) over #2 Alabama (4-0). After a huge win over Georgia, how is the Tide going to get fired up for Kentucky? I think they're due for a letdown, and Kentucky has a strong defense. Alabama is favored by 16, which I think is excessive. Kentucky should cover.

Upset not as likely, but underdog should cover:

• #22 Oregon (4-1) at #9 USC (2-1) - The Trojans will eventually get on track an win out, but they may have lingering underconfidence after their loss. Oregon probably is too far down the QB chart to beat USC on the road, but the 16 point spread is clearly within their grasp. If Oregon State can score 26, Oregon can put up at least that much.
• #1 Oklahoma (4-0) at Baylor (2-2) - Last year the Sooners looked unstoppable and went on the road against a heavy underdog in their conference opener. They lost to Colorado 27-24. Same situation this year, and Baylor is as improved this year as the Buffs were in 2007. The spread is down to 24 1/2 on this game, so it looks like others are considering the same thing.
• #5 Texas (4-0) at Colorado (3-1). See above. This is the other side of the equation from last season's Oklahoma-Colorado game. Either team might be looking ahead to the Oklahoma-Texas game. The Longhorns are 13 point favorites, so I think they have a better chance of covering than Oklahoma this week.
• #6 Penn State (5-0) at Purdue (2-2). The Nittany Lions are another team due for a letdown. After four impressive wins over nobodies and a solid defeat of Illinois, they haven't had a poor game yet. Every team does eventually, and Purdue at home can stay within the 12 point spread.

Ranked teams that shouldn't lose (but might not cover):

• #8 BYU (4-0) at Utah State (1-3). Now we get to see whether the Cougars' road game is as shaky as it looked against Washington. Cover the 4 TD spread and they'll look ok, otherwise it foreshadows a road loss against Utah down the line.
• Western Kentucky (2-3) at Virginia Tech (4-1). Another 28 point spread. The Hokies with Tyrod Taylor are back in favor after handing three straight teams their only loss. They won't blow that all Saturday, but might be a bit sluggish against the Hilltoppers.
• #4 Missouri (4-0) at Nebraska (3-1). The Cornhuskers said they want to shut out the Tigers, which of course means Missouri is going to score about 50 points. But Nebraska will probably chase them like Illinois did, or come back like Georgia did against Alabama even with the game out of reach. The spread is 10 points.
• #16 Kansas (3-1) at Iowa State (2-2). The Jayhawks could have a bit of trouble in Ames, as the Cyclones have played well at home. Todd Reesing should be too much for them in the end.

Ranked teams that should win and cover:

• #12 Florida (3-1) at Arkansas (2-2). The Gators will be angry with themselves, Tebow will be on a mission, and Arkansas is really bad. The line is up from 22 to 24, but I'll still take Florida.
• #14 Ohio State (4-1) at #18 Wisconsin (3-1). Unlike Penn State, Ohio State hasn't really played a good game all year, and they're due for one. They're only favored by 1, so if they win, they pretty much cover.
• Texas A&M (2-2) at #21 Oklahoma State (4-0). Some people think Oklahoma State is ripe for an upset this week. I disagree; I think they're really hungry and want to prove themselves deserving of their ranking. A&M, on the other hand, struggled to beat Army. That says it all. Hard to believe they could go into Stillwater and come out with a win. I take the Cowboys in a rout, beating the 25 point spread.
• Hawaii (2-2) at #22 Fresno State (3-1). Hawaii is so bad on the road that Fresno should cover the three touchdowns.

Oddball game:

• #24 Connecticut (5-0) at North Carolina (3-1). An oddball game because unranked UNC is favored by a touchdown. So this top 25 "upset" shouldn't really count as one if it happens, but by the way I'm defining them it passes. UConn has a decent chance to win, and ought to cover the spread regardless of whether their luck runs out or not.

Heisman top 25 - week 5: Bradford advances; McCoy, Ringer serve notice

Sam Bradford made a big move from #6 to #3 in the SportsRatings Heisman Top 25. The sophomore is still far behind #2 Tim Tebow in our estimation, and Tebow is even farther behind Missouri's Chase Daniel after the Mississippi Debacle. While Daniel was idle and Bradford had another personal-record outing, Tebow's Gators lost to the Rebels when Superman couldn't rush for 1 yard on 4th down. Overall his numbers weren't bad, though they haven't been all that great any time this year. So why does he remain #2? Simply because he still has the ability to come back and win it, and barring that, he'll likely still be a top finisher in the end. Note his words after the game:

You have never seen any player in the entire country play as hard as I will play the rest of this season and you'll never see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody the rest of this season, and you'll never see a team play harder than we will the rest of this season.

I believe him, and think he'll stay in the race. If Daniel collapses, he's back in it. Bradford's Sooners have to be perfect for the soph to have a chance but he can finish 2nd easily.

Bradford's leap was assisted by the poor play and/or fading hopes of the players from #4 to #7. Knowshon Moreno had but 34 yards in Georgia's loss to Alabama while Mark Sanchez's Trojans fell victim to a major upset in Corvallis; both players slide a notch, but Moreno will impress people again, and USC will come back, and both players will remain at least marginally in the hunt. Beanie Wells played for the first time in a month and fumbled on his first carry, finishing with just over 100 yards. Pat White was solid against Marshall as West Virginia evened their record. Wells and White may recover to have great years but have little chance to advance; they don't descend yet as the three players below them were idle this week.

1. (1) Chase Daniel, Missouri (idle this week)
    26-45  58%  359yd  3TD 1int; 9rsh 46yd 5.1av 0TD 0fmb (=ILL 52-42)
    16-17  94%  245yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (SEMoSt 52-3)
    23-28  82%  405yd  4TD 0int; 1rsh 12yd 12 av 0TD 0fmb (Nev 69-17)
    36-43  84%  439yd  2TD 0int; 4rsh 16yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (Buff. 42-21)
   101-133 76% 1412yd 12TD 1int;14rsh 74yd 5.3av 0TD 0fmb
2. (2) Tim Tebow, Florida
    9-14  64% 137yd 1TD 0int; 9rsh  37yd 4.1av 0TD 0fmb (Hawaii 56-10)
   21-35  60% 256yd 2TD 0int;13rsh  55yd 4.2av 0TD 0fmb (Miami 26-3)
    8-15  53%  96yd 2TD 0int;12rsh  26yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (@Tenn 30-6)
   24-38  63% 319yd 1TD 0int;15rsh   7yd 0.5av 2TD 1fmb (L Miss31-30)
   62-102 61% 808yd 6TD 0int;49rsh 125yd 2.6av 2TD 1fmb
   
3. (6) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
   17-22  77%  183yd  2TD 0int; 0rsh   0yd  0av 0TD 0fmb (Chatt 57-2)
   29-38  76%  395yd  5TD 2int; 3rsh   3yd  1av 0TD 0fmb (Cincy 52-26)
   18-21  86%  304yd  5TD 0int; 1rsh   1yd  1av 1TD 0fmb (@Wash 55-14)
   19-34  56%  411yd  4TD 0int; 4rsh -31yd -8av 0TD 0fmb (TCU 35-10)
   83-115 72% 1293yd 16TD 2int; 8rsh -27yd -3av 1TD 0fmb
4. (3) Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
    8rsh  59yd 7.4av  3TD 0fmb; 2rec  53yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Ga.S 45-21)
   18rsh 168yd 9.3av  3TD 0fmb; 3rec  30yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (C Mich 56-17)
   20rsh  79yd 4.0av  1TD 0fmb; 2rec  13yd 0TD;32 rtYd (@SCaro 14-7)
   23rsh 149yd 6.5av  2TD 0fmb; 0rec   0yd 0TD;-2 rtYd (@ASU 27-10)
    9rsh  34yd 3.8av  1TD 0fmb; 3rec  14yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (L Ala41-30)
   78rsh 489yd 6.3av 10TD 0fmb;10rec 110yd 0TD;30 rtYd
5. (4) Mark Sanchez, USC
   26-35 74% 338yd  3TD 1int; 1rsh  6yd 6.0av 0TD 0fmb (@VA 52-7)
   17-28 61% 172yd  4TD 1int; 2rsh-10yd -10av 0TD 0fmb (OSU 35-3)
   18-29 62% 227yd  3TD 1int; 4rsh  7yd 1.8av 0TD 0fmb (L@OreSt27-21)
   61-92 66% 737yd 10TD 3int; 7rsh  3yd 0.4av 0TD 0fmb
6. (5) Chris Wells, Ohio State: 14rsh 106yd 7.6av 0TD 1fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD (Minn 34-21)
   season: 27rsh 217yd 8.0av 1TD 2fmb; 3rec 10yd 0TD
   
7. (7) Pat White, WVA: 17-21 81% 130yd 2TD 0int; 11rsh 61yd 5.5av 0fmb (Marsh 27-3)
   season: 63-86 73% 453yd 7TD 1int; 59rsh 369yd 6.3av 2TD 1fmb
8. (8) Jeremy Maclin, MO: idle last week
   season: 26rec 391yd 4TD 1fmb; 8rsh 43yd 5.4av 1TD; 340 rtYd 1TD
9. (9) Max Hall, BYU: idle last week
   season: 107-144 74% 1284yd 15TD 2int; 6rsh 16yd 2.7ave 1TD 2fmb
10. (10) G. Harrell, T. Tech: idle last week
    season: 120-186 65% 1573yd 12TD 3int; 8rsh -6yd -.8av 1TD 0fmb
11. (13) Javon Ringer, MichSt: 187rsh 897yd 4.8av 12TD 2fmb; 6rec 57yd 0TD;224 rtYd
12. (14) Colt McCoy, Texas: 80-100 80% 1018yd 14TD 1int; 34rsh 278yd 8.2av 4TD 0fmb
13. (11) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech: 29rec 457yd 6TD; 1rsh 3yd 3.0av 0TD 0fmb
14. (23) Charles Scott, LSU: 71rsh 535yd 7.5av 6TD 0fmb; 4rec 37yd 0TD
15. (12) P.J. Hill, Wisconsin: 92rsh 449yds 4.9av 4TD 1fmb; 3rec 38yd 0TD
16. (16) Juice Williams, Illinois: 68-116 59% 905yd 9TD 6int; 64rsh 283yd 4.4ave 2TD 1fmb 
17. (15) Matt Stafford, Georgia: 86-144 60% 1193yd 7TD 1int; 22rsh 33yd 1.5av 0TD 0fmb
18. (18) Jahvid Best, Cal: 59rsh 421yd 7.1av 4TD 1fmb; 14rec 157yd 0TD; 284 rtYd
19. (new) Daryll Clark, Penn St: 62-98 63% 896yd 9TD 1int;23rsh 131yd 5.0av 3TD 1fmb
20. (20) Percy Harvin, Florida: 21rsh 140yd 6.7av 2TD 1fmb; 16rec 247yd 2TD
21. (21) Rey Maualuga, USC: 19 tackles (9 solo); 1 INT 1 TD
22. (22) James Laurinaitis, Ohio State: 47 tackles (18 solo); 1 INT
23. (new) Donald Brown, UConn: 146rsh 906yd 6.2av 11TD 1fmb; 9rec 50yd 0TD
24. (24) Louie Sakoda, Utah: 10 of 12 FGs; 22 of 23 PATs; 14 punts, 45.1av; 1-1 pass 9yd
25. (new) David Johnson, Tulsa: 87-118 74% 1505yd 19TD 4int;19rsh 7yd 0.4av 1TD 0fmb

Others: Derrick Williams, Penn State; Patrick Pinkney, E. Carolina; Shun White, Navy; Todd Reesing, Kansas; Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan.

The other big performers this week were #11 Javon Ringer and #12 Colt McCoy, and each moves up two spots. Ringer's getting a lot of notice for his monster numbers—he was 2 yards shy of his third consecutive 200 yard game. He's also carrying the ball a LOT, which is either a good thing ("he's a workhorse!") or a bad thing ("what if the other guys had 40 carries a game?") but rushing total is what gets attention in the end. If he can keep this up, he's headed to the top five. McCoy had another flawless performance and finally some people are paying attention. But this leads me to believe that if he stumbles at all he'll be dumped and forgotten again. So now I'm behind the curve in leaving him out of the top ten until he plays a decent team.

Running back Charles Scott of LSU continues his reliably strong output, and has to be moved ahead of P.J. Hill as his numbers are better across the board. Juice Williams treads water at #16 after his loss while Matt Stafford falls to #17; Stafford needed Georgia to be undefeated to have any hope of capturing the nation's imagination, while I still see Williams as having the potential to do so, though his marquee opportunities are running out. Another Big Ten QB, Daryll Clark of Penn State, outdueled Williams Saturday evening and is the high debut of the week at #19. Like Stafford, though, he needs to keep his team undefeated to keep upward momentum.

Multi-purpose runners Jahvid Best and Percy Harvin remain stuck; the former hasn't had any highlight reels lately while Harvin had his best game in Florida's loss along with a costly fumble. Linebackers Rey Maulaluga and James Laurinaitis both had strong games last week in their duel for top defensive player in the vote. Maualuga was injured in USC's loss and may miss a game or two, and if his tackling stats fall far enough below Laurinaitis', the head-to-head victory and Maualuga's TD interception return advantages could be negated. Louis Sakoda remains top special teams consideration and is now Utah's all-time leading scorer.

I switched out a running back and quarterback for a better performing pair near the bottom of the list. It's time that Donald Brown crack the top 25, and he replaces Shun White of Navy whose numbers have declined each week from 348 yards in week one to just 20 yards last week. Brown is still getting no respect despite being the nation's leading rusher; there are even articles that refer to Ringer as the national leader. Maybe it's the name—how many great running backs are named Donald? And Brown is all-too-common, and/or hard to live up to. David Johnson (there's another electrifying name) is the national leader in passing efficiency and replaces Patrick Pinkney of East Carolina after the Pirates' second loss.

Brown and Johnson enter at #23 and #25. It's really unfortunate that they have to compete for attention with Javon Ringer and Colt McCoy, two of the spiffiest names in college football.