SportsRatings: College Football

Week 10 Game previews, point spreads, & predictions

Eight undefeated teams, nine 1-loss teams, and 24 2-loss teams are left in college football Division I-A. Two of the undefeated teams (Texas and Texas Tech) play each other, while another (Tulsa) faces what was (formerly) expected to be its biggest challenge of the season against Arkansas. Meanwhile Penn State is idle and Alabama might as well be (although Arkansas State isn't that bad this year, and the Tide lost to a Sun Bowl team last year). Here are the best games for this weekend:

South Florida (6-2) at #25 Cincinnati (5-2)
Point Spread: USF by 3
Strength Power Rating Projection: USF 26, Cincy 21
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: USF 57%
Yardage Comparison Projection:USF 27, Cincy 17
Cincinnati has big time quarterback problems. That's enough for me to take the Bulls here.
Final Verdict: South Florida 24, Cincinnati 13

Northwestern (6-2) at #18 Minnesota (6-1)
Point Spread: Minnesota by 7
Strength Power Rating Projection: Minnesota 25, Northwestern 19
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Minnesota 64%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Northwestern 29, Minnesota 28
Northwestern's luck ran out the last few weeks, now maybe it's Minnesota's turn. Of course I called that last week too and the Gophers won again. So I'll just take the Wildcats against the spread.
Final Verdict: Minnesota 28, Northwestern 25

Air Force (6-2) at Army (3-5)
Point Spread: Air Force by 8.5
Strength Power Rating Projection: Air Force 22, Army 8
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Air Force 78%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Air Force 14, Army 10
This could be a game where neither team throws a pass. Both teams are in the top 10 in rushing offense and bottom three in passing. Air Force is the better club on both sides of the ball, but since they both know what the other does pretty well it might be closer than expected. I'm leaning on the yardage numbers to pick my final score.
Final Verdict: Air Force 14, Army 10

West Virginia (5-2) at #21 Connecticut (6-2)
Point Spread: West Virginia by 3.5
Strength Power Rating Projection: Connecticut 24, West Virginia 16
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Connecticut 63%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Connecticut 28, West Virginia 21
The Mountaineers have won four games in a row, but didn't really beat any noteworthy teams. Their offense has struggled all year except for the 2nd half against Auburn. Connecticut should win another close one.
Final Verdict: Connecticut 31, West Virginia 28

#14 Tulsa (8-0) at Arkansas (3-5)
Point Spread: Tulsa by 7
Strength Power Rating Projection: Tulsa 48, Arkansas 29
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Tulsa 83%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Tulsa 46, Arkansas 35
This is the one game I projected Tulsa to lose pre-season. But since then the Golden Hurricane have (most of the time) exceeded expectations, while Arkansas has struggled even more than I thought, especially on defense. Arkansas' running game led by Michael Smith could give Tulsa's poor defense fits, but David Johnson's passing will cause even worse problems for the Razorback's D. I don't think Tulsa will go undefeated, but now I don't think this one will be the one that gets them.
Final Verdict:Tulsa 49, Arkansas 35

Pittsburgh (5-2) at Notre Dame (5-2)
Point Spread: Notre Dame by 4.5
Strength Power Rating Projection: Notre Dame 29, Pitt 23
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: 57%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Pittsburgh 29, Notre Dame 17
Notre Dame could finish either 6-6 or 9-3. This one will go a long way in determining which path they're going to take. Of course Pittsburgh is so erratic that maybe you can't make a fair judgement about the teams they play. The bottom line for the Irish is that they haven't beaten a remotely good team, but they play well at home. Pitt has actually played better on the road, but again they're a fluky team. Notre Dame will have to pass the ball to beat the Panthers, as they won't be able to run it. I have more faith in the luck of the Irish than Pittsburgh at this point, and—unbelievably, given Charlie Weis' debacle last year—think Notre Dame is a much better-coached team.
Final Verdict: Notre Dame 31, Pittsburgh 29

Arkansas State (4-3) at Alabama (8-0)
Point Spread: Alabama by 23.5
Strength Power Rating Projection: Alabama 35, Arkansas St. 11
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: 91%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Alabama 26, Arkansas St. 10
Louisiana Monroe shocked the Tide last season, so Arkansas State won't sneak up on them in '08. Alabama hasn't looked great the last few weeks and at some point they're in for a loss. I don't think it will be here, or against Auburn or LSU, so I'm guessing the SEC championship game will be a blowout, with Alabama taking the fall, probably against Florida.
Final Verdict:Alabama 30, Arkansas State 10

#23 Oregon (6-2) at California (5-2)
Point Spread: Cal by 3
Strength Power Rating Projection: California 41, Oregon 40
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: California 52%
Yardage Comparison Projection: California 41, Oregon 35
Sometimes when two teams with high-powered offenses and mediocre defenses clash, there is a surprisingly low-scoring game. But it's silly to predict something like that, as it's just an odd fluke. Cal is at home and its defense is a bit better, but I like the Ducks in shootout games. If Cal keeps the score low they'll win, but that's not the expected scenario.
Final Verdict:Oregon 45, California 37

#20 Florida State (6-1) at Georgia Tech (6-2)
Point Spread: Georgia Tech by 3
Strength Power Rating Projection: FSU 24, Georgia Tech 23
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Georgia Tech 54%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Georgia Tech 28, FSU 21
Georgia Tech was playing well until they became the latest victim of Virginia's unexpected resurgence. The Seminoles have waltzed through the easier part of their schedule and now have a few challenges. Interestingly, my Strength power rating picks FSU by 3 while giving Tech a 54% chance to win. One of the Yellowjacket's games drops their average rating quite a bit, explaining the disconnect. The bottom line is rushing defense, since Tech runs the ball a lot. The Seminole's rushing defense is decent, and Tech's rarely-used passing game can't take advantage of FSU's poor pass defense.
Final Verdict: Florida State 35, Georgia Tech 24

#11 Florida (6-1) vs. #9 Georgia (7-1)
Point Spread: Florida by 6.5
Strength Power Rating Projection: Florida 38, Georgia 22
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Florida 80%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Florida 28, Georgia 28
While the Strength power rating projects a certain Florida blowout, the yardage analysis sees the game as a toss-up. That's because Florida's scoring in unconventional; since the first game against Hawaii they've been scoring on special teams and on short drives set up by turnovers. So when you compare offensive yardages, things look even, but special teams—and the revenge factor—will give Florida a big advantage. Florida's defense will want to redeem itself against Knowshon Moreno, too.
Final Verdict: Florida 31, Georgia 14

#1 Texas (8-0) at #4 Texas Tech (8-0)
Point Spread: Texas by 3
Strength Power Rating Projection: Texas 37, Texas Tech 29
Game Performance Analysis % to Win: Texas 73%
Yardage Comparison Projection: Texas Tech 38, Texas 31
This is an interesting matchup. Texas's offense is better balanced between passing and running, even with Colt McCoy as the leading rusher—perhaps because of it, as quarterbacks with any kind of running threat cause problems for defenses. But Texas Tech is more consistent on defense, with the Longhorns being quite poor against the pass—a bad thing to be when going up against Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree. Bottom line, I think Texas' secondary will rise to the occasion, and while they can't shut down Crabtree, they are #2 in sacks and will harass Harrell like no one has this season. Tech's defense won't have an answer for McCoy's near perfect touch and ability to run. The Red Raiders have better balance—between running and passing, and between offense and defense—than they have in years, but it's not quite enough to take them to an undefeated season, even if they manage to pull this game out.
Final Verdict: Texas 34, Texas Tech 31

Heisman Top 25 - week 9: Putting McCoy's 'mistakes' into perspective

Though Texas prevailed 28-24 and Colt McCoy played a nearly flawless game for three quarters, in the immediate aftermath of the Longhorns' win over Oklahoma State, there was some who questioned whether McCoy's late interception and fumble could have cost them the game, and if that would leave the Heisman door open for someone else. The answer is pretty much no. Looking at his stats and Texas' wins, he hasn't even left it open a crack. Perhaps there is any area not sealed by duct tape, but barring an unlikely late-season collapse, McCoy's hold on the trophy is secure. Even a loss to Graham Harrell's Texas Tech wouldn't unseat him as the most likely to win the award, as the Red Raiders are just getting into the tough part of their season as Texas leaves theirs.

What a Tech win would do is give new, but slim, hope to the guys behind Harrell. #2 Sam Bradford's Oklahoma Sooners would have renewed hope of making the Big 12 title game, and by beating Texas Tech could put him in contention, but the "tie" would still go to McCoy. Bradford by the way quietly had his worst game of the season Saturday; all you heard about was Oklahoma's offensive surge in the 2nd quarter. #3 Chase Daniel had a monster game against Colorado, showing that he shouldn't have been counted out; remember, Missouri will likely play the best team from the Big 12 South in December. Tim Tebow, counted out over a month ago by some, has like I predicted, worked his way back into consideration just by being Tim Tebow. He'll probably finish fourth; if Harrell passes him, one of the others will drop below. And speaking of Graham Harrell, the Kansas game really woke a lot of people up. It also put his stats at Heisman level. Of course this coming weekend will make or break his chances for the trophy, but for now he's filled the fifth New York slot.

Should Harrell falter, Knowshon Moreno, another player dismissed long ago off the sportswriters' lists, is making a resurgence and could advance his agenda if he demolishes Florida this weekend like he did last year. It's likely that New York will be an all-quarterback party, and Moreno might have to make the top four to get an invite, as his raw stats aren't that superlative. Meanwhile Mark Sanchez will not be going to New York. He had an outside chance until last week's dud of a game against Arizona. #8 Javon Ringer is the only back other than Moreno situated to make the top five, and like he's done all year, he only makes Heisman progress when he has over 190 yards in a game. Three more of those (a win over Penn State would help) and he'll be the party-crashing running back instead of Moreno.

1. (1) Colt McCoy, Texas
    24-29  83%  222yd  3TD 0int;12rsh 103yd 8.6av 1TD 0fmb (FLAtl 52-10)
    20-29  69%  282yd  4TD 1int; 5rsh   8yd 1.6av 0TD 0fmb (@UTEP 42-13)
    19-23  83%  329yd  4TD 0int; 8rsh  83yd  10av 1TD 0fmb (Rice 52-10)
    17-19  90%  185yd  3TD 0int; 9rsh  84yd 9.3av 2TD 0fmb (Ark 52-10)
    23-30  77%  262yd  2TD 2int;11rsh  39yd 3.5av 0TD 0fmb (@Colo 38-14)
    28-35  80%  277yd  1TD 0int;14rsh  31yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (=OK 45-35)
    29-32  91%  337yd  2TD 0int;11rsh  23yd 2.0av 2TD 0fmb (Mizzou56-31)
    38-45  84%  391yd  2TD 1int;10rsh  41yd 4.1av 1TD 1fmb (OKst28-24)
   198-242 82% 2285yd 21TD 4int;80rsh 412yd 5.2av 7TD 1fmb
2. (2) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
    17-22  77%  183yd  2TD 0int; 0rsh   0yd   0av 0TD 0fmb (Chatt 57-2)
    29-38  76%  395yd  5TD 2int; 3rsh   3yd   1av 0TD 0fmb (Cincy 52-26)
    18-21  86%  304yd  5TD 0int; 1rsh   1yd   1av 1TD 0fmb (@Wash 55-14)
    19-34  56%  411yd  4TD 0int; 4rsh -31yd  -8av 0TD 0fmb (TCU 35-10)
    23-31  74%  372yd  2TD 1int; 2rsh   4yd   2av 1TD 0fmb (@Bayl 49-17)
    28-39  72%  387yd  5TD 2int; 8rsh  -5yd -.6av 0TD 0fmb (L=Tex 45-35)
    36-53  68%  468yd  3TD 0int; 4tsh  14yd 3.5av 0TD 0fmb (wKU 45-31)
    13-32  41%  255yd  3TD 0int; 1rsh   1yd 1.0av 1TD 0fmb (wKSt 58-35)
   183-270 68% 2775yd 29TD 5int;23rsh -13yd -.5av 3TD 0fmb
3. (3) Chase Daniel, Missouri
    26-45  58%  359yd  3TD 1int; 9rsh  46yd 5.1av 0TD 0fmb (=ILL 52-42)
    16-17  94%  245yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh   0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (SEMoSt 52-3)
    23-28  82%  405yd  4TD 0int; 1rsh  12yd 12 av 0TD 0fmb (Nev 69-17)
    36-43  84%  439yd  2TD 0int; 4rsh  16yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (Buff. 42-21)
    18-23  78%  253yd  3TD 0int; 1rsh   0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (@Neb 52-17)
    39-52  75%  390yd  1TD 3int; 7rsh  46yd 6.6av 0TD 0fmb (L OKst28-23)
    31-41  76%  318yd  2TD 1int; 4rsh  -8yd  -2av 1TD 0fmb (L Tex 56-31)
    31-37  84%  302yd  5TD 1int; 5rsh  34yd 6.8av 0TD 0fmb (Colo 58-0)
   220-286 77% 2675yd 23TD 6int;31rsh 146yd 4.7av 1TD 0fmb
4. (4) Tim Tebow, Florida
     9-14  64%  137yd  1TD 0int; 9rsh  37yd 4.1av 0TD 0fmb (Haw 56-10)
    21-35  60%  256yd  2TD 0int;13rsh  55yd 4.2av 0TD 0fmb (Miami 26-3)
     8-15  53%   96yd  2TD 0int;12rsh  26yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (@Tenn 30-6)
    24-38  63%  319yd  1TD 0int;15rsh   7yd 0.5av 2TD 1fmb (L Miss31-30)
    17-26  65%  217yd  2TD 1int;12rsh  32yd 2.7av 0TD 0fmb (@Ark 38-7)
    14-21  67%  210yd  2TD 0int;12rsh  22yd 1.8av 1TD 1fmb (LSU 51-21)
    11-15  73%  180yd  2TD 1int; 9rsh  48yd 5.3av 2TD 0fmb (KY 63-5)
   104-164 63% 1415yd 12TD 2int;82rsh 227yd 2.8av 5TD 2fmb
   
5. (8) Graham Harrell, T. Tech
    43-58  74%  536yd  2TD 1int; 2rsh  2yd 0.8av 1TD 0fmb (EWash49-24)
    19-46  41%  297yd  1TD 2int; 2rsh -2yd  -1av 0TD 0fmb (@Nev 35-19)
    31-48  65%  418yd  5TD 0int; 3rsh -7yd  -2av 0TD 0fmb (SMU 43-7)
    27-34  79%  322yd  4TD 0int; 1rsh  1yd 1.0av 0TD 0fmb (Mass 56-14)
    38-51  75%  454yd  6TD 0int; 1rsh  1yd 1.0av 1TD 0fmb (@KSt 58-28)
    20-25  80%  284yd  2TD 0int; 1rsh  1yd 1.0av 1TD 0fmb (Neb 37-31ot)
    44-56  79%  450yd  3TD 2int; 3rsh  4yd 1.3av 2TD 0fmb (@TexAM43-25)
    34-42  81%  386yd  5TD 0int; 7rsh 14yd 2.0av 1TD 0fmb (@KU 63-21)
   256-360 71% 3147yd 28TD 5int;20rsh 14yd 0.7av 6TD 0fmb
   
6. (6) Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
     8rsh  59yd 7.4av  3TD 0fmb; 2rec  53yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Ga.S 45-21)
    18rsh 168yd 9.3av  3TD 0fmb; 3rec  30yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (C Mich 56-17)
    20rsh  79yd 4.0av  1TD 0fmb; 2rec  13yd 0TD;32 rtYd (@SCaro 14-7)
    23rsh 149yd 6.5av  2TD 0fmb; 0rec   0yd 0TD;-2 rtYd (@ASU 27-10)
     9rsh  34yd 3.8av  1TD 0fmb; 3rec  14yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (L Ala41-30)
    27rsh 101yd 3.7av  0TD 0fmb; 1rec  14yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Tenn 26-14)
    23rsh 172yd 7.5av  1TD 0fmb; 1rec  10yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Vandy 24-14)
    21rsh 163yd 7.8av  1TD 0fmb; 2rec   9yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (@LSU52-38)
   149rsh 961yd 6.4av 12TD 0fmb;14rec 143yd 0TD;30 rtYd
7. (5) Mark Sanchez, USC
    26-35  74%  338yd  3TD 1int; 1rsh   6yd 6.0av 0TD 0fmb (@VA 52-7)
    17-28  61%  172yd  4TD 1int; 2rsh -10yd -10av 0TD 0fmb (OSU 35-3)
    18-29  62%  227yd  3TD 1int; 4rsh   7yd 1.8av 0TD 0fmb ([email protected])
    19-28  68%  332yd  3TD 0int; 4rsh  -4yd  -1av 0TD 1fmb (Ore 44-10)
    13-26  50%  179yd  1TD 3int; 5rsh  -4yd -.8av 1TD 1fmb (@ASU 28-0)
    15-20  75%  253yd  5TD 0int; 1rsh   3yd 3.0av 0TD 0fmb (@WashSt 69-0)
    21-36  58%  216yd  1TD 1int; 7rsh   3yd 2.3av 0TD 1fmb (@Ariz 17-10)
   129-202 64% 1717yd 20TD 7int;24rsh  -7yd -.3av 1TD 3fmb
8. (9) Javon Ringer, Michigan State
    27rsh   81yd 3.0av  2TD 0fmb; 1rec  17yd 0TD;102 rtYd ([email protected] 38-31)
    34rsh  135yd 4.0av  5TD 1fmb; 1rec   8yd 0TD; 62 rtYd (EMich 42-10)
     43rsh  282yd 6.6av  2TD 0fmb; 1rec  12yd 0TD; 14 rtYd (FLAtl 17-0)
     39rsh  201yd 5.2av  2TD 1fmb; 1rec   0yd 0TD; 22 rtYd (ND 23-7)
     44rsh  198yd 4.5av  1TD 0fmb; 2rec  20yd 0TD; 24 rtYd (@Ind 42-29)
     25rsh   91yd 3.6av  0TD 0fmb; 1rec   3yd 0TD;  0 rtYd (Iowa 16-13)
     35rsh  124yd 3.5av  2TD 0fmb; 2rec  16yd 0TD;  0 rtYd (@NWes 37-20)
     16rsh   67yd 4.2av  0TD 0fmb; 6rec  19yd 0TD;  0 rtYd (L OSU 45-7)
     37rsh  194yd 5.2av  2TD 0fmb; 2rec  25yd 0TD;  0 rtYd (@Mich 35-21)
   300rsh 1373yd 4.6av 16TD 2fmb;17rec 120yd 0TD;224 rtYd
9. (7) Max Hall, BYU
    34-41  83%  486yd  2TD 0int; 3rsh  4yd 0.8av 1TD 2fmb (UNI 41-17)
    30-41  73%  338yd  3TD 1int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (@Wash 28-27)
    27-35  77%  271yd  7TD 1int; 3rsh 12yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (UCLA 59-0)
    16-27  59%  189yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (Wy 44-0)
    23-37  62%  303yd  2TD 2int; 4rsh  1yd 0.3av 0TD 0fmb (@UTst 34-14)
    22-34  65%  258yd  3TD 0int; 4rsh 14yd 5.0av 0TD 0fmb (NNex 21-3)
    22-42  52%  274yd  0TD 2int;10rsh-24yd  -2av 1TD 2fmb ([email protected] 32-7)
    24-31  77%  245yd  4TD 0int; 3rsh 29yd 9.7av 0TD 0fmb (UNLV 42-35)
   198-288 69% 2364yd 24TD 6int;26rsh 37yd 1.4av 2TD 4fmb
10. (12) Daryll Clark, Penn St: 12-20 60% 121yd 0TD 0int; 8rsh 39yd 4.9av 0TD (@OSU 13-6)
    season: 126-200 63% 1799yd 11TD 2int;55rsh 229yd 4.2av 8TD 2fmb
11. (13) M. Crabtree, T. Tech: 60rec 794yd 14TD 0fmb; 1rsh 3yd 3.0av 0TD; 50 rtYD
12. (11) Pat White, WVA: 88-124 71% 764yd 12TD 3int; 81rsh 436yd 5.4av 2TD 1fmb
13. (14) Jeremy Maclin, MO: 58rec 800yd 7TD 1fmb; 18rsh 80yd 4.4av 1TD; 666rtYd 1TD
14. (15) Donald Brown, UConn: 235rsh 1324yd 5.6av 14TD 1fmb; 18rec 112yd 0TD
15. (10) Chris Wells, Ohio State: 124rsh 674yd 5.4av 4TD 2fmb; 7rec 26yd 0TD
16. (16) Dez Bryant, OkSt: 51rec 883yd 11TD 1fmb; 372rtYd 2TD
17. (20) David Johnson, Tulsa: 155-227 68% 2661yd 32TD 9int;45rsh 98yd 2.4av 3TD 0fmb
18. (18) Charles Scott, LSU: 120rsh 775yd 6.5av 10TD 1fmb; 6rec 51yd 0TD
19. (19) Zac Robinson, OkSt: 111-160 69% 1687yd 15TD 4int;86rsh 275yd 3.2 ave 5TD 3fmb
20. (21) Shonn Greene, Iowa: 177rsh 1154yd 6.5av 10TD 2fmb; 6rec 20yd 0TD
21. (new) Kendall Hunter, OkSt: 169rsh 1116yd 6.6av 10TD 2fmb; 8rec 103yd 0TD
22. (17) Juice Williams, Ill: 140-237 59% 2169yd 18TD 10int;117rsh 479yd 4.1ave 5TD 2fmb 
23. (23) Jahvid Best, Cal: 92rsh 643yd 7.0av 6TD 1fmb; 19rec 194yd 0TD; 284 rtYd
24. (24) Percy Harvin, Florida: 31rsh 212yd 6.8av 3TD 1fmb; 26rec 429yd 6TD
25. (25) James Laurinaitis, Ohio State: 90 tackles (35 solo), 4 for loss (3 sacks); 1 INT

out: (22) P.J. Hill, Wisconsin: 134rsh 613yds 4.6av 5TD 1fmb; 3rec 38yd 0TD

Falling to #9 despite having his best game in a month, Max Hall is actually solidly in the top ten, given his opportunity game against undefeated Utah. Win that and he gets some votes. But he's out of luck for the top five spot that looked promising just a few weeks ago.

The big question is who will fill the final 10th spot next week of the featured ten candidates. Normally at this point there are ten players who have some conceivable shot at winning the trophy; last year it was more like 15. This year, it may be down to the current top five, and a few of those need all sorts of help.

Right now it looks like Daryll Clark, who watched from the bench with a head injury in the 4th quarter as his team beat Ohio State. Not exactly a Heisman moment. Or #11 Michael Crabtree could finally have the huge game against Texas that puts him in the vote-garnering range. Even #12 Pat White could reverse his fortune. Or some of the others lower on the list could have a big game that legitimizes them as a player that, at least for the next week, has a chance of winning the trophy.

While Pat White has played well since falling from among the pre-season favorites, Ohio State's Beanie Wells hasn't quite gotten on track. He almost had, until the Penn State game where he was stuffed for just 55 yards and may not reach 1,000 this season. That pretty much guarantees that no one will be pencilling him in anywhere on their ballots. Jeremy Maclin and Donald Brown move up a spot as Wells slides.

#16 Dez Bryant had a dud of a game against Texas, stopping his momentum, while teammate Zac Robinson fought valiantly but couldn't secure the win. Charles Scott had a good game against Georgia but LSU got rocked. Amidst all this, David Johnson of Tulsa kept his team winning and moves up three spots to #17.

A third Oklahoma State candidate, Kendall Hunter, debuts at #21 after netting 161 yards against the Longhorns, making him the Heisman flavor of the week. Last week's flavor, #20 Shonn Greene of Iowa, was idle and the buzz about him faded considerably. The two have remarkably similar stats; while Hunter's team is doing better this year, Greene is carrying his team's offense on his shoulders alone.

The last four candidates are just hanging on, especially Juice Williams who falls five spots after the Illini lost their fourth game. Though Wisconsin beat them, P.J. Hill falls off the list after gaining just nine yards Saturday, and losing his starting job. Jahvid Best and Percy Harvin both are playing well enough to look good, but not well enough to advance, and defensive token James Laurinaitis has decent enough stats.

Next week will be the last Top 25; after that it will be just a Top 20, so the lower players had better step it up!

The Big Twelve: Do They Play Defense?

The Big Twelve is causing a stir with their high-powered offenses, but recently the point has been brought up that maybe they just don't play defense in the league like they used to. And no, they're not just pointing at Nebraska.

Instead, they're talking about the current league powers, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma State; even defense-minded Bob Stoops' Oklahoma and #1 Texas.

While the Tigers, Red Raiders, and Cowboys have rarely been known as defensive stalwarts, The Sporting News reports that the Sooners don't seem to be up to their normal standards on D, and no less a football authority than the Wall Street Journal notes that Texas ranks only 43rd in total defense.

So what is the verdict on the Big Twelve? Is it, like the WSJ asserts, a paper tiger league where offenses are taking advantage of lax-to-non-existent defenses and soft scheduling, ready for a huge wake-up call come bowl season? And what is the proper way to measure whether a team can play defense?

The answer to the last question is certainly not to look at the NCAA's total defense rankings. These rankings are made simply by adding up all yards yielded all season, and dividing by the number of games. This gives you raw totals which say nothing about the teams you've faced. Let's look at Texas, ranked #43 by the NCAA, and quoted by the WSJ as evidence of the conference's lack of quality, and note the rank of their opponents using the comparable NCAA offensive stats:

Texas Longhorns: Defensive rank #43 (source NCAA)
Opponent     Offense rank (NCAA)
Florida Atl.    # 67
UTEP            # 56
Rice            # 16
Arkansas        # 66
Colorado        #101
Oklahoma        #  4
Missouri        #  5
Oklahoma St     #  8

The Longhorns may have played an pretty easy pre-conference schedule, but it was filled with teams that had average offenses for the 120 Division I-A universe, and one, Rice, that has a top 25 level offense (even if their defense is bottom 25 level).

And once in the conference itself? Colorado was by far the worst offense they faced at #101, then they took on, back-to-back-to-back, the #4, #5, and #8 offenses in the country, according to the NCAA stats.

It should come as no surprise that if you correct for the offenses of their opponents, Texas has a defensive ranking much better than 43rd. In fact, they rank #8—top ten in the country—when this correction is applied. Below are the top defenses, based on total yardage yielded (corrected for opposition) as of Sunday:

Rank Team                         Rec   Total [rank] Rush [rank]  Pass [rank]
  1. TCU                          8-1   215.3 [  1]   34.6 [  1]  180.7 [ 20]
  2. Southern Cal                 6-1   218.2 [  2]   83.0 [  6]  135.1 [  2]
  3. South Carolina               5-3   233.1 [  3]   84.6 [  8]  148.4 [  3]
  4. Alabama                      8-0   263.9 [  4]   60.8 [  3]  203.0 [ 50]
  5. Ohio State                   7-2   265.8 [  5]  109.0 [ 22]  156.8 [  6]
  6. Florida                      6-1   273.2 [  6]   99.3 [ 17]  173.9 [ 13]
  7. Utah                         8-0   274.7 [  7]   85.4 [  9]  189.3 [ 33]
  8. Texas                        8-0   277.0 [  8]   60.8 [  2]  216.1 [ 73]
  9. Tennessee                    3-5   286.0 [  9]   98.7 [ 16]  187.3 [ 29]
 10. Auburn                       4-4   297.6 [ 10]  109.8 [ 25]  187.7 [ 30]

This is a much better way to rank defenses that to simply look at how many yards they've yielded per game.

Yardage doesn't tell the whole story, of course; some teams give up a lot of yards but have stingy red-zone defenses, or create a lot of turnovers that end drives. This shows up better in the scoring defense rankings:

  #  Team                         rec    Offense       Defense
  1. Southern Cal                 6-1    41.02 [  9]    4.67 [  1]
  2. Florida                      6-1    43.95 [  5]   10.33 [  2]
  3. Texas                        8-0    45.84 [  4]   10.64 [  3]
  4. TCU                          8-1    29.39 [ 41]   10.69 [  4]
  5. Ohio State                   7-2    29.15 [ 43]   10.74 [  5]
  6. Penn State                   9-0    43.33 [  7]   10.83 [  6]
  7. Iowa                         5-3    27.69 [ 54]   12.92 [  7]
  8. Wake Forest                  4-3    19.67 [ 99]   12.94 [  8]
  9. Boise St                     7-0    28.39 [ 49]   13.53 [  9]
 10. South Carolina               5-3    23.63 [ 70]   14.45 [ 10]

...and here we see that Texas is 3rd in the nation in scoring defense—when corrected for opposition. If uncorrected, Texas ranks only 28th, which is again, very unrepresentative when you consider they just held teams that average 48, 47, and 44 points to 35, 31, and 24.

So how about Oklahoma, and the rest of the league? Here are are the adjusted defensive rankings for each Big 12 team in total yardage and total scoring defense. 

  Big 12 North       rec    yard rnk     score rnk
  Missouri           6-2     # 44          # 21
  Kansas             5-3     # 65          # 66
  Nebraska           5-3     # 54          # 34
  Colorado           4-4     # 26          # 41
  Kansas State       4-4     # 93          # 81
  Iowa State         2-6     # 91          # 96

  Big 12 South       rec    yard rnk     score rnk
  Texas              8-0     #  8          #  3
  Texas Tech         8-0     # 13          # 16
  Oklahoma           7-1     # 64          # 35
  Oklahoma St        7-1     # 42          # 14
  Texas A&M          3-5     #108          # 99
  Baylor             3-5     # 87          # 72

So what should we conclude? First it's clear that Texas is certainly playing great defense and using them as an example of the Big 12's poor defense is flawed reasoning. And even Texas Tech is playing strong defense, both yardage-wise and scoring-wise.

Oklahoma's defense is somewhat suspect, as many have been pointing out. They rank even lower in yardage when adjusted for their schedule (which includes Washington and Baylor in addition to the tough defenses of TCU and Texas). Their problem is mainly against the pass, where they rank an abysmal 95th. But teams have less luck turning this yardage into points, as they are 35th in scoring defense. Likewise Oklahoma State, which ranks 42nd in yardage but a strong #14 in scoring defense. Again, all of these rankings are adjusted for the offensive capabilities of their opponents.

The rest of the league is somewhat soft to downright porous. Missouri isn't bad overall, ranking 21st in scoring defense. Nebraska and Colorado are respectable, too. But Kansas' defense is average at best, while Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas A&M, and Baylor rank quite low on a national scale, let alone against their BCS-conference brethren.

So there's clearly a mixed verdict concerning the Big 12, but the point of its accusers was not that the league was weak at the bottom. Certainly, the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, and especially this season, the Pac Ten, can't boast a strong league top-to-bottom. Even the SEC has several dogs in 2008. The WSJ article was complaining primarily about the conference's top tier:

The Big 12, which boasts four top-10 teams in the new Associated Press poll, cannot account for a single defense among the nation's top 40.

And clearly that statement has been put to shame. By the standards they are quoting—yardage—two of those teams are in the top 20 in real defensive yardage. Using adjusted scoring defense as the metric, all four are in the top 40.

And as Casey Kasem would tell you, having four Top 40 hits is a pretty impressive thing.

Penn State has no cakewalk to an undefeated season

Ok, we get it already—the Big Ten gets no respect. Despite the obvious shortcomings of the Big East, ACC, and this year especially, the Pac 10, it's the Big Ten that is summarily dismissed most often. Now that Penn State is looking to go undefeated, we have some saying an undefeated Penn State isn't worthy, while the rest are saying the Lions' last three games are walkovers.

An example: this column by Mike Huguenin is par for the course, as he writes: the only way Penn State doesn't finish unbeaten in the regular season is if it beats itself.

Admittedly, the Nittany Lions cleared their toughest hurdle by beating Ohio State on the road. Looking at their three remaining foes (Iowa on the road, Indiana and Michigan State at home) doesn't strike fear into hearts the way Texas Tech's remaining schedule might. Penn State will be favored in all three games, and probably should finish 12-0. But the sportswriting nation is selling the Big Ten short.

First of all, Iowa. The Hawkeyes are only 5-3 and have played sloppy football at times. But those losses were to three winning teams: 5-2 Pittsburgh on the road; 7-2 Michigan State, also on the road; and 6-2 Northwestern at home. More importantly, the three losses were by a combined eight points—Iowa could very easily have won each of those games, and if they had they be 8-0, and this game would be seen as a huge hurdle in Penn State's way. Which is how it should be seen. Penn State's rushing defense did a great job against Beanie Wells, but Iowa's Shonn Greene could be an even tougher test. And the Hawks' defense is just as good as Ohio State's, so the game could be very low scoring, making it anybody's ball game. Check out the power ratings if you are skeptical: Iowa is firmly in the top 25 when judged on a pure-points basis such as my Strength ratings, and Sagarin's Predictor has them #10 to Penn State's #3. This is a perfect trap game for Penn State to fall into.

Next, Indiana. This is clearly the least worrisome game remaining, but 3-5 Indiana is coming off a win over Northwestern and has lost only to decent teams: undefeated Ball State, Michigan State, 7-1 Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. Quarterback Kellen Lewis has been injured but could be back for the Penn State game. Still, as it takes place in College Station, this is the one game that should be a gimme for the Lions, though there's a chance the Hoosiers prove pesky.

Finally, Michigan State. This is another home game for the Lions, and because the Spartans were so thoroughly spanked by Ohio State many are discounting their threat. But at 7-2 they should be treated with a bit more respect, and we've seen many strange things happen to teams on their final week of the season—remember West Virginia vs. Pitt last year? Penn State will have to be focused, especially if either of the teams ahead of them have lost by this time, causing visions of a national championship to dance in front of them mesmerizingly.

That's no cakewalk. As West Virginia-Pitt and USC-Stanford/Oregon State proved, no conference game against a capable foe is a given, not even at home. Penn State won't have to "beat themselves" to lose a game; their opponents will be more than happy to try to do that for them.

Lineal Top 25: #2 Texas beats #1 Oklahoma State!!!

I neglected to keep track of the Lineal Top 25 for one week and looked what happened—I didn't realize that last Saturday's clash between Oklahoma State and Texas was a battle between #1 and #2!

You see, two weeks ago Oklahoma State knocked Missouri out of the top spot, putting the Tigers at #2. The next week, Texas beat Missouri, taking over the #2 spot. That set up a quite rare #1 vs. #2 contest! Normally the #1 team has just defeated the #2 team, and they don't play again. But since Texas moved in and played the Cowboys next, we witnessed a rare case where a team moves from #2 to #1 on the all-time Lineal top 25!

And that wasn't all for the top ten; there were several other top ten clashes, mostly because of the preponderance of SEC teams at the top of the chart. #5 Florida beat #6 Kentucky, so neither team moved; likewise #4 Alabama defeated #10 Tennessee, leaving matters unchanged. But LSU and Georgia traded places with the Bulldogs' win, and both were pushed down a spot as Mississippi beat Arkansas.

Arkansas is just 3-5, but recall how they got so high: they beat LSU last year when LSU was #1. LSU in turn had taken the title from Auburn, who had beaten Florida, who had defeated Ohio State in the national championship game of the 2006 season. Ohio State, interestingly, took the title from 2005 national champ Texas...so here we are, a little over two years later, and the lineal crown is back in Texas' hands.

Here is the current state of the Lineal Top 25:

Week 9 (games thru 10/25/2008)
lw  new Team                    rec  last week's result
2    1. Texas                   8-0  beat #1 Oklahoma State
1    2. Oklahoma State          7-1  lost to #2 Texas
3    3. Missouri                6-2
4    4. Alabama                 8-0  beat #10 Tennessee
5    5. Florida                 6-1  beat #6 Kentucky
6    6. Kentucky                5-2  lost to #5 Florida
     7. Mississippi             4-4  beat #7 Arkansas
7    8. Arkansas                3-5  lost to Mississippi
9    9. Georgia                 7-1  beat #8 LSU 
8   10. LSU                     5-2  lost to #9 Georgia
10  11. Tennessee               3-5  lost to #4 Alabama
11  12. Mississippi State       3-5 
    13. Duke                    4-3  beat #12 Vanderbilt
12  14. Vanderbilt              5-3  lost to Duke
    15. West Virginia           5-2  beat #13 Auburn
13  16. Auburn                  4-4  lost to West Virginia
14  17. Utah                    8-0 
24  18. Penn State              9-0  beat #15 Ohio State
15  19. Ohio State              7-2  lost to #24 Penn State 
16  20. Michigan State          7-2 
17  21. Virginia                5-3 
18  22. North Carolina          6-2 
19  23. Notre Dame              5-2 
20  24. Minnesota               7-1 
    25. Wisconsin               4-4 beat #21 Illinois

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 9

Barely a move in the top ten; Oklahoma State drops one spot to #6, behind Oklahoma, another team that lost to #1 Texas. The Longhorns have a lock on the top spot, having defeated two top ten teams and another top 20 team. #2 Alabama also has a top ten win, while #3 Penn State picks up their first top 25 victory of the season. The pecking order in the top three is well-established in rank of schedule difficulty. Should #4 Texas Tech, who smothered ex-#22 Kansas 63-21, defeat Texas next week, they'd have a strong claim to the top spot. In the weeks that follow they face both Oklahoma squads, giving them ample opportunity to relinquish it to the Tide.

#7 Utah was idle, #8 USC had another of their brain fart games against Arizona, winning 17-10. #9 Georgia beat LSU Saturday and has a good argument for belonging ahead of USC if they beat #11 Florida next weekend: two top 25 wins vs. a loss to the #2 team. Florida's argument should they win is less valid, as they previously lost to Mississippi, a team toeing the .500 line. At #10, Boise State looks set to finish in the magical BCS top twelve should they win out, but Utah's presence is a complicating factor, as only one top-12 non-BCS conference team is guaranteed a BCS bowl slot.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 9 (10-26-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Texas	8-0	w=OK45-35,Mizz56-31,OkSt28-24
2	2.	Alabama	8-0	[email protected]
3	3.	Penn State	9-0	[email protected]
4	4.	Texas Tech	8-0	[email protected]
6	5.	Oklahoma	7-1	L=Tex45-35;wTCU35-7,Cin52-26,KU45-31
5	6.	Oklahoma State	7-1	[email protected];[email protected]
7	7.	Utah	8-0
8	8.	Southern Cal	6-1	[email protected];wOSU35-3,Oregon44-10
9	9.	Georgia	7-1	L Ala41-30;[email protected]
10	10.	Boise State	7-0	[email protected]
12	11.	Florida	6-1	L Miss31-30;wLSU51-21
15	12.	TCU	8-1	[email protected];wBYU32-7
17	13.	Ball State	8-0
19	14.	Tulsa	8-0
11	15.	Ohio State	7-2	[email protected]3,PennSt13-6;wMinn34-21
21	16.	Missouri	6-2	L OKst28-23,@Tex56-31
20	17.	Brigham Young	7-1	[email protected]
25	18.	Minnesota	7-1	[email protected]
--	19.	North Carolina	6-2	[email protected],VT20-17;wConn38-12,BC45-24
--	20.	Florida State	6-1	L WakeForest12-3
--	21.	Connecticut	6-2	[email protected],@NC38-12;wLou26-21,Cin40-16
--	22.	Louisville	5-2	L Kentucky27-2,@UConn26-21;wUSF24-20
--	23.	Oregon	6-2	[email protected],BoiseState37-32
18	24.	LSU	5-2	[email protected],Georgia52-38
16	25.	Cincinnati	5-2	[email protected],@OK52-26
13	--	Pittsburgh	5-2	L BowlGr27-17,Rut54-34;[email protected]
14	--	South Florida	6-2	L Pitt26-21,@Lou24-20;wKU37-34
23	--	Georgia Tech	6-2	[email protected],VA24-17;[email protected]
24	--	Boston College	5-2	L GTech19-16,@UNC45-24
22	--	Kansas	5-3	[email protected],@OK45-31,TTech63-21

TCU is another non-BCS school hoping for a BCS bowl bid, despite having a loss. Their only blemish is to Oklahoma, and they beat BYU, so if they can add Utah to their prize list they have a decent shot at making it. Undefeateds Ball State and Tulsa will need a bit more help. Tulsa had another big 2nd half against UCF Sunday evening, and unlike the other polls and the BCS, I actually waited for that game to be played before coming out with my week 9 rankings! Now that all the unbeaten teams are in the top 15, here come the highest-ranked 2-loss teams, #15 Ohio State and #16 Missouri. The Buckeyes have a win over Minnesota and losses to the #3 and #8 team; the Tigers have no big wins—and no more top 25 teams on their schedule—but have lost only to the #1 and #6 team, and if they keeping beating teams 58-0 they'll earn their upward moves despite a weaker schedule. Plus, they'll play their way into the Big Twelve championship game, where they might be the ultimate spoiler. They jump over 1-loss BYU, who struggled to beat UNLV.

#18 Minnesota, 1-11 last year and 7-1 this season, moves up seven spots due to a rash of losses in the lower half of the rankings. #20 Florida State, the final 1-loss team, enters at #20. Neither team has an impressive win.

Several teams entered the rankings by knocking out other teams: #19 North Carolina re-enters after beating Boston College, who drops out; Connecticut comes back at #21, knocking Cincinnati down nine spots; #22 Louisville upset #14 South Florida, who fell out because A) they lost, B)their win over Kansas was diminished by Kansas' big loss, and C) the other team that beat them, ex-#13 Pittsburgh, lost their 2nd game to a losing team and dropped out themselves.

The last few teams, #23 Oregon, #24 LSU, and #25 Cincinnati, each has two losses to teams ranked above them. Oregon lost to the highest-rated teams, Cincinnati the lowest. LSU lost to good teams but was soundly defeated both times.

Dienhart wants USC, Florida, Georgia ahead of undefeated Penn State

Poor Penn State. They have to live with being #3 behind undefeated Texas and Alabama, faced with the possibility of yet again going unbeaten and left out of the national title picture. Even Texas Tech, waiting in the wings if they beat the Longhorns, could hold the Nittany Lions out of a spot in the top two.

And that's the way it should be. The Big Twelve and SEC are so much better than the Big Ten that any team that emerges undefeated from those conferences should have priority over an unbeaten Big Ten team. Especially since both of the former conferences play a championship game, meaning they'd have to go 13-0.

But now, adding insult to injury, prominent sports writers like Tom Dienhart are suggesting that teams that have already lost a game should move ahead of the Lions. That's plain sad. Especially when there is little to no logic behind the sentiment.

Dienhart names, in addition to the aforementioned Texas, Alabama, and Texas Tech, three other teams he thinks are more deserving than Penn State: Florida, Georgia, and USC. Let's look at them one by one.

Florida just got done crushing Kentucky 63-5, a few weeks after they beat LSU 51-21. No doubt they've been pretty dominant, except when they lost to 4-4 Mississippi—at home. So the Gators have a home loss to a marginally winning team, to go with blowouts over outmatched competition. Yes, even LSU counts among the severely overrated. The dirty secret is that the SEC, which has been the premier league the last two years (or more), isn't as good this year. That doesn't mean that a 1-loss team that wins the league shouldn't play for the national title, but they shouldn't jump over Penn State.

Georgia just beat LSU as well. That seems to be the litmus test for whether an SEC team is good: can they crush LSU? Florida and Georgia pass the test; Auburn, not so much. We saw what happened to Auburn against a struggling West Virginia. Face the facts: the SEC has three good teams—Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. Florida and Georgia play each other, so only one can possibly figure into the national title talk. Should the winner of that game win the conference, they deserve to play for the national title, but again, not ahead of Penn State.

USC sputtered past Arizona on Saturday, the same Arizona team that lost to Stanford and New Mexico. Dienhart complains about the Big Ten, but where is his outrage at USC's easy path to national title contention in the abysmal Pac Ten? Sure, you can compare USC's 35-3 whipping (at home) of Ohio State to Penn State's 13-6 win (on the road), but at least Penn State won the game. Which is more than can be said for USC against Oregon State, a team that Penn State destroyed 45-14. Now THAT is a relevant comparison. And Dienhart has the gall to suggest USC is more deserving than Penn State? An undefeated USC and an undefeated Penn State would have the same basic résumé; give one team a loss and it's no contest, and no person using logic could suggest otherwise.

The three teams he mentions, Florida, Georgia, and USC, each have one win to hang their hats on so far: Florida and Georgia beat LSU, and USC beat Ohio State. Dienhart complains so much about the Big Ten and Ohio State, but somehow USC deserves a title shot due to beating the Buckeyes? And where is the derision for LSU, who has given up 50 points twice now? Should they not be as contemptible as Ohio State? After all, they *won* the title last year, so they have fallen much farther.

The bottom line is, if Penn State loses, they're out, period. Just like USC should have been when they lost. Florida and Georgia deserve a shot at redemption because of the schedule they face, and next week one of the two will be eliminated. But currently, Penn State deserves their ranking, and they are properly ahead in line of those three teams in the national title picture.

BLOWOUT! Texas Tech, Florida, Oklahoma pass 50 point mark early

This afternoon is full of blowouts in games that aren't close to over. Defense has been a big part of the blowouts as well.

Texas Tech 56, Kansas 14 - end of 3rd quarter

The Red Raiders have intercepted Todd Reesing three times and Graham Harrell has 5 TDs passing and 1 rushing in this statement game.

Florida 56, Kentucky 3 - end of 3rd quarter

Tim Tebow has 2 rushing and 2 passing TDs so far. The Gators blocked 3 kicks in the first half.

Oklahoma 55, Kansas State 28 - halftime

The Sooners got off to a 28-7 start, but Josh Freeman's three straight TD passes brought the Wildcats back to tie it at 28. No problem; Sam Bradford passed for 2 more touchdowns, to make three on the day so far through the air (plus 1 rushing). Add another from DeMarco Murray and a punt return by Ryan Broyles and it's 55-28 at the half.

Week 9 game preview - odds, predictions

Week nine. Getting down to the nitty gritty, I forced myself to pick four upsets (highlighted in red) among top 25 teams this week.

Auburn (5-3) at West Virginia (5-2)
Vegas Line: WVA by 3
Strength Power Rating: West Virginia 11, Auburn 11
% Chance to win: 50/50
Yardage Projection: West Virginia 13, Auburn 13
One of my pre-season top ten games has turned into a bust. West Virginia is still undefeated in the Big East, but they've played only the easiests teams in the league. Auburn has lost thrice in the SEC and is playing for pride, but has to be demoralized while West Virginia is on a tepid winning streak. Both teams suck on offense and are good on defense, hence the low score projections. Given the complete toss-up projected by my computers, I'll go with Vegas and the home team and say the Mountaineers win in overtime by a field goal.
VERDICT: West Virginia 16, Auburn 13

#5 Oklahoma State (7-0) at #1 Texas (7-0)
Vegas Line: Texas by 12
Strength Power Rating: Texas 39, Oklahoma State 23
% Chance to win: Texas 92%
Yardage Projection: Texas 37, Oklahoma State 21
The third stage in the Longhorns' ring of fire. Given the recent history of these games, the Cowboys will lead 23-7 in the first half, only to see Texas score 30 unanswered points in the 2nd half. The Longhorns are due for a letdown, so this scenario makes sense with that aspect as well.
VERDICT: Texas 37, Oklahoma State 23

#3 Penn State (8-0) at #11 Ohio State (7-1)
Vegas Line: Penn State by 2.5
Strength Power Rating: Penn State 32, Ohio State 19
% Chance to win: Penn State 81%
Yardage Projection: Penn State 20, Ohio State 13
No one need worry about Ohio State getting to the national title game, even if they win out. There is reason to worry about a USC-Ohio State Rose Bowl rematch, which would be just as pointless. But the Nittany Lions will be up for this game, and the Buckeyes don't have the offense to keep up with them. This is not the game where Penn State gets upset; that comes against Iowa.
VERDICT: Penn State 23, Ohio State 17

#8 USC (5-1) at Arizona (5-2)
Vegas Line: USC by 16
Strength Power Rating: USC 38, Arizona 18
% Chance to win: USC 88%
Yardage Projection: USC 35, Arizona 14
After USC beat Washington State 69-0, the "most talented team" talk started right back up, since no one can call them the best after they lost a game. Beating the Cougars shouldn't have registered on the chart at all, but the Trojans have been playing dynamite football: 138 points in a row and counting. Like we've seen before it doesn't take a lot to get this team overconfident. They probably won't consider Arizona much of a threat, since the Wildcats lost to New Mexico and Stanford. But Arizona has been looking ahead to this game all year. I think the Trojans are going to lose a second game at some point this year, and it's hard to find another remote possibility on the schedule, so it'll have to be this game.
VERDICT: Arizona 33, USC 23

#9 Georgia (6-1) at #18 LSU (5-1)
Vegas Line: LSU by 2
Strength Power Rating: Georgia 34, LSU 27
% Chance to win: Georgia 69%
Yardage Projection: Georgia 33, LSU 30
Even though LSU is favored by the oddsmakers, I'm not counting this pick as an 'upset', which I'm defining in terms of ranking. So taking Georgia here is just because I expect them to win, and fairly easily. LSU has gotten by on an easy schedule that hasn't exposed their defensive deficiencies. Georgia will take care of that on the ground and through the air.
VERDICT: Georgia 35, LSU 24

Kentucky (5-2) at #12 Florida (5-1)
Vegas Line: Florida by 24.5
Strength Power Rating: Florida 30, Kentucky 7
% Chance to win: Florida 93%
Yardage Projection: Florida 30, Kentucky 7
Well, I just chickened out. I was all set to pick this as a huge upset, even in face of the 24.5 point spread, the 93% chance given by my computers, and the 30-7 projection from the Strength ratings. But when the yardage rating confirmed that exact tally, I couldn't hold out. I'll have to find another upset somewhere else, even though this one seemed ripe. Kentucky has been dissed and dismissed, while Florida, everyone assumes, is marching back toward an SEC championship. Time for Tebow and co. to lose another game. But not this week. I'll take South Carolina in a few weeks. I promise.
VERDICT: Florida 30, Kentucky 7

#4 Texas Tech (7-0) at #22 Kansas (5-2)
Vegas Line: Kansas by 1.5
Strength Power Rating: Texas Tech 32, Kansas 29
% Chance to win: Texas Tech 53%
Yardage Projection: Texas Tech 42, Kansas 35
Ok, then I'll take this one as an upset instead. It also offsets the Georgia-LSU game, which doesn't count as an upset even though LSU is favored; here, Kansas is favored, and I'm taking them, but it does count as an upset since Tech is rated higher. Either way it evens out. Though Tech may be the better team, this is their first encounter with a top 25 level squad, and it's on the road. Should be close, though, and a good indicator for both teams true quality level.
VERDICT: Kansas 35, Texas Tech 32

#24 Boston College (5-1) at North Carolina (5-2)
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3
Strength Power Rating: North Carolina 27, Boston College 21
% Chance to win: North Carolina 62%
Yardage Projection: Boston College 28, North Carolina 13
Another cheap pick for an upset, as UNC is favored by a field goal. But my next pick will make up for it. Here, I think UNC is the better team, and is at home, so what's stopping them? Maybe B.C. has momentum after winning last week while the Tar Heels lost, but I'm not sold on Boston College yet. North Carolina's yardage stats might make me reconsider this one, though, and switch to Purdue beating Minnesota as my last upset. Crap, I'm taking the Eagles, since they're great against the run and UNC can't pass to make up for it. It's another upset pick vs. the spread, though.
VERDICT: Boston College 23, North Carolina 20

#2 Alabama (7-0) at Tennessee (3-4)
Vegas Line: Alabama by 6.5
Strength Power Rating: Alabama 23, Tennessee 15
% Chance to win: Alabama 73%
Yardage Projection: Alabama 14, Tennessee 13
I'm taking way too many top ten upsets, but I figure either the USC one or this one will hit and the other will be a blowout. This one is probably a lot more likely though. Alabama has been lackluster at times, especially on offense, which gives the hapless Volunteers a chance to partially redeem their season.
VERDICT: Tennessee 14, Alabama 13

#25 Minnesota (6-1) at Purdue (2-5)
Vegas Line: Purdue by 1
Strength Power Rating: Minnesota 26, Purdue 21
% Chance to win: Minnesota 59%
Yardage Projection: Purdue 37, Minnesota 27
Minnesota's luck can't go on forever can it? The Gophers are like Illinois last year, only probably not nearly as good. They're greatly improved, but even greatly improved teams have a relapse now and then. Illinois relapsed against Iowa last season, and Minnesota will relapse here against a Purdue team that has had very bad luck and is due for a break.
VERDICT: Purdue 39, Minnesota 26

Heisman Top 25 - week 8: Colt McCoy in driver's seat

As far ahead as Chase Daniel was just a few short weeks ago, that's how far ahead Colt McCoy is now, and more. The fact that McCoy has head-to-head wins against the #2 and #3 candidates basically gives him a "cushion" to hold the lead even if Texas loses a game. His performance last week against Missouri was simply astonishing: 29 of 32 passing. Let's stop there, because that's all you need to see. To have over 90% completions against a top 25 team when throwing more than 30 attempts is phenomenal. As is having an 81% completion rate past the mid-season mark. Even Tim Tebow has endorsed Colt McCoy's candidacy, which is as significant as Colin Powell endorsing Barack Obama.

The next three guys are playing for second place. Sam Bradford has great numbers and it's questionable whether his sophomore status hurts him much, but he looks like a solid #2 right now—anyone who deposes McCoy somehow will draft right past Bradford in all likelihood. And clearly Chase Daniel has two "strikes" against him now, referring to last week's baseball analogy, but like Bradford, the loss to McCoy's team makes it hard to pass him under normal circumstances. Many are counting Daniel out completely, but the Heisman crowd is fickle like that. Even in the two losses he threw 75% completions and over 300 yards. I'm certain you'll see Daniel in New York barring a collapse by the Tigers. Add Tim Tebow, and this week's top four may be the entire New York lineup. If he finishes strong as expected, Tebow will be in the top five, and not inviting him to the ceremony would be unthinkable. However strong he does finish, he won't win it again. He's currently on track to have about half as many touchdowns as he did last season.

Normally five players are invited to New York, sometimes four, give or take, but assuming it's five then we're at a loss right now as to who else currently belongs. #5 Mark Sanchez and #6 Knowshon Moreno move up a spot each to fill the void left by Max Hall's stumble. Not that Sanchez and Moreno didn't play great games last week: Sanchez threw five touchdown passes (against Washington State, okay) and Moreno rushed for 172 yards. But neither has been consistent, and while one of them could end up in the top five it's not likely without a spectacular finish.

Max Hall, as mentioned, falls from #5 to #7. After being just on the verge of joining the big boys' club, Hall's BYU lost, which shattered his candidacy. Throwing zero touchdowns and 2 interceptions on barely 50% completions didn't help his case. His odds of winning fell to near zero, and to get back in good graces he would need to load up on the stats the next few weeks, then lead his team to an upset of undefeated Utah in the final game. Short of that, he likely slides out of the top ten.

1. (4) Colt McCoy, Texas
    24-29  83%  222yd  3TD 0int;12rsh 103yd 8.6av 1TD 0fmb (FLAtl 52-10)
    20-29  69%  282yd  4TD 1int; 5rsh   8yd 1.6av 0TD 0fmb (@UTEP 42-13)
    19-23  83%  329yd  4TD 0int; 8rsh  83yd  10av 1TD 0fmb (Rice 52-10)
    17-19  90%  185yd  3TD 0int; 9rsh  84yd 9.3av 2TD 0fmb (Ark 52-10)
    23-30  77%  262yd  2TD 2int;11rsh  39yd 3.5av 0TD 0fmb (@Colo 38-14)
    28-35  80%  277yd  1TD 0int;14rsh  31yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (=OK 45-35)
    29-32  91%  337yd  2TD 0int;11rsh  23yd 2.0av 2TD 0fmb (Mizzou56-31)
   160-197 81% 1894yd 19TD 3int;70rsh 371yd 5.3av 6TD 0fmb
2. (2) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
    17-22  77%  183yd  2TD 0int; 0rsh   0yd   0av 0TD 0fmb (Chatt 57-2)
    29-38  76%  395yd  5TD 2int; 3rsh   3yd   1av 0TD 0fmb (Cincy 52-26)
    18-21  86%  304yd  5TD 0int; 1rsh   1yd   1av 1TD 0fmb (@Wash 55-14)
    19-34  56%  411yd  4TD 0int; 4rsh -31yd  -8av 0TD 0fmb (TCU 35-10)
    23-31  74%  372yd  2TD 1int; 2rsh   4yd   2av 1TD 0fmb (@Bayl 49-17)
    28-39  72%  387yd  5TD 2int; 8rsh  -5yd -.6av 0TD 0fmb (L=Tex 45-35)
    36-53  68%  468yd  3TD 0int; 4rsh  14yd 3.5av 0TD 0fmb (wKU 45-31)
   170-238 71% 2520yd 26TD 5int;22rsh -14yd -.6av 2TD 0fmb
3. (1) Chase Daniel, Missouri
    26-45  58%  359yd  3TD 1int; 9rsh  46yd 5.1av 0TD 0fmb (=ILL 52-42)
    16-17  94%  245yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh   0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (SEMoSt 52-3)
    23-28  82%  405yd  4TD 0int; 1rsh  12yd 12 av 0TD 0fmb (Nev 69-17)
    36-43  84%  439yd  2TD 0int; 4rsh  16yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (Buff. 42-21)
    18-23  78%  253yd  3TD 0int; 1rsh   0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (@Neb 52-17)
    39-52  75%  390yd  1TD 3int; 7rsh  46yd 6.6av 0TD 0fmb (L OKst28-23)
    31-41  76%  318yd  2TD 1int; 4rsh  -8yd  -2av 1TD 0fmb (L Tex 56-31)
   189-249 76% 2373yd 18TD 5int;26rsh 112yd 4.3av 1TD 0fmb
4. (3) Tim Tebow, Florida - idle last week
     9-14  64%  137yd  1TD 0int; 9rsh  37yd 4.1av 0TD 0fmb (Haw 56-10)
    21-35  60%  256yd  2TD 0int;13rsh  55yd 4.2av 0TD 0fmb (Miami 26-3)
     8-15  53%   96yd  2TD 0int;12rsh  26yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (@Tenn 30-6)
    24-38  63%  319yd  1TD 0int;15rsh   7yd 0.5av 2TD 1fmb (L Miss31-30)
    17-26  65%  217yd  2TD 1int;12rsh  32yd 2.7av 0TD 0fmb (@Ark 38-7)
    14-21  67%  210yd  2TD 0int;12rsh  22yd 1.8av 1TD 1fmb (LSU 51-31)
    93-149 62% 1235yd 10TD 1int;73rsg 179yd 2.5av 3TD 2fmb
   
5. (6) Mark Sanchez, USC
    26-35  74%  338yd  3TD 1int; 1rsh   6yd 6.0av 0TD 0fmb (@VA 52-7)
    17-28  61%  172yd  4TD 1int; 2rsh -10yd -10av 0TD 0fmb (OSU 35-3)
    18-29  62%  227yd  3TD 1int; 4rsh   7yd 1.8av 0TD 0fmb ([email protected])
    19-28  68%  332yd  3TD 0int; 4rsh  -4yd  -1av 0TD 1fmb (Ore 44-10)
    13-26  50%  179yd  1TD 3int; 5rsh  -4yd -.8av 1TD 1fmb (@ASU 28-0)
    15-20  75%  253yd  5TD 0int; 1rsh   3yd 3.0av 0TD 0fmb (@WashSt 69-0)
   108-166 65% 1501yd 19TD 6int;17rsh -10yd -.6av 1TD 2fmb
6. (7) Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
     8rsh  59yd 7.4av  3TD 0fmb; 2rec  53yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Ga.S 45-21)
    18rsh 168yd 9.3av  3TD 0fmb; 3rec  30yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (C Mich 56-17)
    20rsh  79yd 4.0av  1TD 0fmb; 2rec  13yd 0TD;32 rtYd (@SCaro 14-7)
    23rsh 149yd 6.5av  2TD 0fmb; 0rec   0yd 0TD;-2 rtYd (@ASU 27-10)
     9rsh  34yd 3.8av  1TD 0fmb; 3rec  14yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (L Ala41-30)
    27rsh 101yd 3.7av  0TD 0fmb; 1rec  14yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Tenn 26-14)
    23rsh 172yd 7.5av  1TD 0fmb; 1rec  10yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Vandy 24-14)
   128rsh 762yd 6.0av 11TD 0fmb;12rec 134yd 0TD;30 rtYd
7. (5) Max Hall, BYU
    34-41  83%  486yd  2TD 0int; 3rsh  4yd 0.8av 1TD 2fmb (UNI 41-17)
    30-41  73%  338yd  3TD 1int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (@Wash 28-27)
    27-35  77%  271yd  7TD 1int; 3rsh 12yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (UCLA 59-0)
    16-27  59%  189yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (Wy 44-0)
    23-37  62%  303yd  2TD 2int; 4rsh  1yd 0.3av 0TD 0fmb (@UTst 34-14)
    22-34  65%  258yd  3TD 0int; 4rsh 14yd 5.0av 0TD 0fmb (NNex 21-3)
    22-42  52%  274yd  0TD 2int;10rsh-24yd  -2av 1TD 2fmb ([email protected] 32-7)
   174-257 68% 2119yd 20TD 6int;23rsh  8yd 0.3av 2TD 4fmb
8. (10) Graham Harrell, T. Tech
    43-58  74%  536yd  2TD 1int; 2rsh  2yd 0.8av 1TD 0fmb (EWash49-24)
    19-46  41%  297yd  1TD 2int; 2rsh -2yd  -1av 0TD 0fmb (@Nev 35-19)
    31-48  65%  418yd  5TD 0int; 3rsh -7yd  -2av 0TD 0fmb (SMU 43-7)
    27-34  79%  322yd  4TD 0int; 1rsh  1yd 1.0av 0TD 0fmb (Mass 56-14)
    38-51  75%  454yd  6TD 0int; 1rsh  1yd 1.0av 1TD 0fmb (@KSt 58-28)
    20-25  80%  284yd  2TD 0int; 1rsh  1yd 1.0av 1TD 0fmb (Neb 37-31ot)
    44-56  79%  450yd  3TD 2int; 3rsh  4yd 1.3av 2TD 0fmb (@TexAM43-25)
   222-318 70% 2761yd 23TD 5int;13rsh  0yd 0.0av 5TD 0fmb
   
9. (8) Javon Ringer, MichSt: 16rsh 67yd 4.2ave 0TD 0fmb; 6rec 19yd 0TD (L OSU 45-7)
   season: 263rsh 1179yd 4.5av 14TD 2fmb; 15rec 95yd 0TD;224 rtYd
10. (9) Chris Wells, Ohio State: 31rsh 140yd 4.5av 2TD 0fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD (Mich St. 45-7)
    season: 102rsh 638yd 6.3av 4TD 2fmb; 6rec 13yd 0TD
11. (11) Pat White, WVA: 75-103 73% 590yd 9TD 1int; 70rsh 428yd 6.1av 2TD 1fmb
12. (14) Daryll Clark, Penn St: 114-180 63% 1531yd 11TD 2int;47rsh 190yd 4.0av 8TD 2fmb
13. (13) M. Crabtree, T. Tech: 51rec 724yd 12TD 0fmb; 1rsh 3yd 3.0av 0TD; 50 rtYD
14. (12) Jeremy Maclin, MO: 47rec 666yd 5TD 1fmb; 15rsh 63yd 4.2av 1TD; 625rtYd 1TD
15. (15) Donald Brown, UConn: 179rsh 1067yd 6.0av 12TD 1fmb; 9rec 50yd 0TD
16. (24) Dez Bryant, OkSt: 45rec 809yd 11TD 1fmb; 372rtYd 2TD
17. (17) Juice Williams, Ill: 123-205 60% 1948yd 16TD 7int; 109rsh 475yd 4.4ave 5TD 2fmb 
18. (16) Charles Scott, LSU: 99rsh 631yd 6.3av 8TD 1fmb; 5rec 45yd 0TD
19. (19) Zac Robinson, OkSt: 94-134 70% 1488yd 14TD 4int;73rsh 249yd 5TD 3fmb
20. (25) David Johnson, Tulsa: 138-200 69% 2487yd 31TD 8int;38rsh 90yd 2.4av 1TD 0fmb
21. (new) Shonn Greene, Iowa: 177rsh 1154yd 6.5av 10TD 2fmb; 6rec 20yd 0TD
22. (18) P.J. Hill, Wisconsin: 131rsh 604yds 4.6av 5TD 1fmb; 3rec 38yd 0TD
23. (20) Jahvid Best, Cal: 75rsh 528yd 7.0av 5TD 1fmb; 18rec 190yd 0TD; 284 rtYd
24. (21) Percy Harvin, Florida: 27rsh 177yd 6.6av 2TD 1fmb; 19rec 284yd 3TD
25. (22) James Laurinaitis, Ohio State: 78 tackles (33 solo, 2 for loss, 2 sacks); 1 INT

Others: Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State; MiQuale Lewis, Ball State; Nate Davis, Ball State; John Parker Wilson, Alabama, LeShon McCoy, Pitt.

out: (23) Matt Stafford, Georgia: 124-203 61% 1697yd 10TD 5int; 29rsh 54yd 1.9av 0TD 0fmb

The player with the most upside potential may be Graham Harrell, who has quietly been hanging on in the top ten waiting for the big games to come. He's got his stats whipped into shape, and could be one of the few players able to unseat Colt McCoy. Doing so would probably require going undefeated and beating Texas, of course. Harrell had five touchdowns (3 passing, 2 rushing) against Tech's last marginal foe before the minefield they have to run the next month: Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma. Come out of that unscathed and Harrell is probably on top.

He'd certainly be in the top five, which is where Javon Ringer hoped he'd be this week. Instead, Ringer falls a spot after having a dismal game in Michigan State's loss to Ohio State. On the verge of becoming far and away the #1 back in the hunt, now it's a toss-up as to whether he can catch Knowshon Moreno for even that consolation prize. He's well ahead of #10 Chris Wells (who missed several games), with nearly twice as many yards, but Wells outplayed him on Saturday.

#12 Daryll Clark shined against Michigan and has a big opportunity to jump into the big leagues if Penn State can beat Ohio State Saturday. His passing stats aren't up to Harrell's, but his eight rushing TDs are an edge as the two will vie to possibly become McCoy's main challenger. Harrell's prime receiver Michael Crabtree holds at #13; lacking a breakthrough performance that wakes people up, he'll remain there. So, too, #14 Jeremy Maclin, whose highlight reel shut down in Missouri's losses. The nation's leading rusher, ever-consistent Donald Brown of UConn, is also stalled. He had his seventh straight 100 yard game, but the Huskies had their 2nd loss.

Dez Bryant leaps to #16 after a strong multi-TD performance against Baylor. For a receiver to get strong consideration, he needs double-digit catches, triple-digit yardage, and two touchdowns per game. To win, returning kicks for touchdowns is almost a requirement, and Bryant has two of those so far. If Oklahoma State keeps winning, though, quarterback Zac Robinson (currently #19) will start to get more attention. Between the two are Juice Williams, who was solid against Indiana but whose overall stats don't overcome Illinois' three losses; and LSU's Charles Scott, who is fading and has one more chance against Georgia to turn that around.

Tulsa's David Johnson jumps back up to #20 this week, as he now has over 30 touchdown passes to go with his #1 efficiency rating. He's pretty much this year's Colt Brennan: massive yardage, lots of TD passes, a few too many interceptions, leading an undefeated team in a non-major conference against a light schedule, with suggestions that his success is due to the system he plays in. All of this means Johnson could potentially reach the top five as others falter, but he can't win the trophy.

Iowa's Shonn Greene is the only debut at #21. Greene has been racking up the 100+ yard games since the beginning of the year, but the Hawks dropped three straight which kept attention off them. With Iowa on a two-game blowout streak, Greene's 217 yards against Wisconsin put him on the map. He's now the #3 rusher in America. The problem is that he'll need to repeat the 200+ yard performances to keep the spotlight on him, and if he dips below 100 just once, the "buzz" about him dims considerably. There's no doubt he outplayed P.J. Hill, whose season is slipping away along with Wisconsin's. Jahvid Best, Percy Harvin, and James Laurinaitis hang on to the last slots. Best's best performances may be behind him, Harvin never quite got going consistently, and Laurinaitis has good stats but no one is saying the cliché "if they'd just consider a defensive player for the Heisman, he would win it!" about him. Maybe he can impress during the Penn State game.

Matt Stafford finally drops from the list altogether. In the pre-season he was hyped as "the best pro-style quarterback" in the country despite not playing all that impressively last season. This year was more of the same: 10 touchdowns and five interceptions? His bland completion stats look exactly like Juice Williams', but he doesn't have the rushing touchdowns and yardage to complement them. Now watch him have a great game against LSU and have everyone raving about him...

Dear Mike Huguenin: BCS Computers can't consider score margin

Same day, another article about the BCS computers and how they can't use score margin. This one comes in response to Mike Huguenin's article about the first BCS rankings this week.

In an overall decent look at how the initial BCS rankings shape up, he writes:

USC is 10th in the computer rankings and has no remaining games against teams currently in the BCS top 25. The Trojans beat Ohio State by 32, yet are ranked five spots behind the Buckeyes in the computers.

That statement is unfair to the poor computers. (Not that their feelings can get hurt). I agree it's worthwhile to point out that Ohio State is ahead of USC by the computers' estimation, since that is unusual and very unintuitive. But to point out that USC beat Ohio State by 32 is not relevant to evaluating the computers' performance, because the computers aren't allowed to "know" the score of that game, only that USC won it.

Put into perspective: what if USC had won by a single point? They subsequently lost to Oregon State, giving them one loss as well. And for all the computers know, that loss was by 50 points. But just assume we know two things: USC beat Ohio State in Pasedena, then later lost to Oregon State.

Is it so ridiculous to put Ohio State ahead of them? Maybe it still is. But some of the computers will evaluate Ohio State and conclude that they've won seven games, and lost one game, on the road, to a very good team. USC, on the other hand, beat five teams, one of them a very good team, but lost to a mediocre team. That's how Ohio State ends up ahead in four of the six computers, and tied in another. Only Richard Billingsly's algorithm has USC ahead, by a single place.

Add in the score margin and almost any computer algorithm will put USC in front. They're #2 in my Strength Power Rating, which uses score margin, while Ohio State is #13. In my Success Power Rating, which like the BCS computers does not use score margin, USC is #6 and Ohio State #8. The Trojans are still ahead, but as you can see, remove score margin from the equation and they are a lot closer.

BCS computers can't use score margin because the BCS committee decided to make it that way. On one hand, it makes the power ratings less accurate, especially at mid-season, and allows examples like this one to make the computers look stupid. On the other hand, it gets rid of incentive for coaches to run up the score. However, coaches have enough incentive to run up the score anyway: to impress the human pollsters, though this can sometimes backfire.

Another statement Huguenin makes is also a bit misleading:

While strength of schedule isn’t a BCS component, all six computers have a strength-of-schedule factor in their rankings.

It's true the BCS used to add in a ridiculous "strength of schedule" component, back when the formula was overcomplex and they tinkered with it every year to try to somehow make it match the AP and Coaches polls' #1 and #2 teams. They got rid of the strength factor, as well as the "quality wins" bonus, leaving it 2/3rd human polls, 1/3 computers.

The computers include a strength-of-schedule factor by their very nature. There is nothing "added in" as far as I know, to any of the formulas; it's just part and parcel of how they work. Imagine a computer ranking system that didn't include strength of schedule in any way. In other words, the computer couldn't know which teams are playing each other.

That's right: by letting the computer know which teams are playing each other, strength of schedule gets factored in no matter what. Without it—and also banning score margin—the computer might as well rank teams by winning percentage and let that be it. Or add in a home/road factor of some sort. There's nothing else to go on. It's the way the computer uses the head-to-head comparisons between teams that makes a power rating. Very few power ratings, if any, do what the BCS used to do, which is figure out a strength-of-schedule score and add it in later, as its own component.

My problem with some computer ratings, as I've mentioned before, is when strength of schedule is average rather than aggregate. When it's averaged, you can have a situation where an 11-0 team would be ranked higher if they didn't play Washington State in their last game. In an aggregate system, they'd play the Cougars, gain few if any points, and have basically the same rating they started with. If their strength of schedule is averaged, they lose points for winning a game.

That's all for now. I'll be back the next time someone writes something erroneous about the BCS computers, even if it's just to take a shortcut because they understandable don't want to have to write ten paragraphs about it. I'll do that part.

BCS Busters update: As expected, BYU falters on the road

The biggest non-surprise of last week was BYU's upset on the road at the hands of TCU. The Horned Frogs rated higher in power ratings than the Cougars, with the Strength algorith picking a 24-17 win for TCU. But more importantly, a look at BYU's home vs. road performance told everything one needed to know.

BYU opened at home and beat tough Division I-AA opponent Northern Iowa 41-17. They followed that with the closest of road wins, the Jake-Locker-ball-toss-penalty game against Washington. They left with a 28-27 victory, and the Huskies haven't come that close to winning since. 

The Cougars' two signature wins, back-to-back shutouts of UCLA and Wyoming by a combined 103-0, were both achieved at home. When they played a much lesser foe, Utah State, on the road, they won 34-14, then beat New Mexico at home 21-3.

So BYU on the road was a disaster waiting to happen, and if TCU hadn't caught them Utah would have (and still probably will). The magnitude of the blowout—32-7—was a bit surprising, but it underscores how poorly BYU plays away from home. In Provo I'd give them a chance against anybody, but away from home any decent team might upset them.

In any case, BYU falls from the ranks of the BCS Busters, which now consists of just four members:

1. Boise State - The Broncos have by far the easiest path from here to a top twelve finish. Already #13 in both polls used for the BCS, Boise's remaining schedule has no remaining pitfalls now that Fresno State has faltered and look toothless. Regardless, that game is a home game for Boise, and their biggest challenge now might be Nevada or San Jose State on the road. It certainly isn't New Mexico State, Utah State, or Idaho. Remaining pitfalls: None.
2. Utah - The Utes are the only BCS buster with an outside chance to make the championship game, though BYU's loss probably hurt them in that respect. At 8-0, they have just four games left, and winning out will guarantee them at least a BCS bowl game. But two of the four games are pitfalls: TCU and BYU. Luckily, both games are at home, and given BYU's road woes, the Horned Frogs are their biggest worry. The road game against New Mexico can't be overlooked either, leaving San Diego State as their only breather other than next week's bye. Remaining pitfalls: TCU, BYU. 
3. Tulsa - It's hard to believe that Arkansas still counts as a potential pitfall for this team, given its offense. But the Razorbacks surprised Auburn and almost beat Kentucky, and a team that struggles on the road against SMU surely has to worry about Arkansas. Another disturbing development is that coach Todd Graham is already complaining that the BCS might overlook an undefeated Tulsa team. Note to coach—that's the sort of chicken-counting that gets a team upset the next week. Tulsa has finally made the USA and Harris top 25 and is looking a lot better in the power ratings these days, so they should be able to pull it off but they have a long way to go, six more games counting the C-USA title game. Remaining pitfalls: @Arkansas, C-USA championship.
4. Ball State - The Cardinals were idle this week and didn't move up much in the polls. Like Tulsa, their chance of making a BCS game depends on other teams losing, as four non-BCS teams aren't going to make it. And 24-7 wins over Western Kentucky won't sway the voters, who must be swayed to make up for the computers which will probably have them outside the top 12 should they go undefeated. And there's that matter too, going undefeated: having won the only game (Indiana) that I expected them to lose to this year, the Cardinals should go 13-0. But their last two games are tough ones at Central Michigan then at home vs. Western Michigan. The East division isn't looking strong enough to challenge them in the MAC title game. Remaining pitfalls: @Central Michigan, Western Michigan.

In terms of reaching national championship game, here's how I see the pecking order:

• Any undefeated team from the Big 12 or SEC (remaining: Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Alabama). Only two possible by end of season.
• Any undefeated team from the other BCS conferences (remaining: Penn State)
• Any 1-loss team conference winner from the Big 12 or SEC (the above plus Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, and LSU)
• Utah, if undefeated
• Any remaining 1-loss team from the BCS conferences (USC highest among those)
• Boise State, if undefeated
• Any 2-loss conference winner from the Big 12 or SEC
• Any 1-loss Mountain West team (TCU first, then Utah or BYU)
• Any remaining 2-loss team from the BCS conferences (Oklahoma priority over TCU though)
• Tulsa or Ball State, if undefeated

So as you can see, unless every BCS team has 3 losses, Tulsa and Ball State don't have the schedule to make it to the big game. Boise State has a very small chance due to their win over Oregon, but it would require another year like last year's, and that's unlikely to happen. Utah has a good case if they go undefeated, but beating an undefeated BYU in the season finále would have given them more hope. As it stands, USC is probably more likely to get into the national championship game than Utah if both win out.

Maryland Terrapins: Schizo Team of the Year

Last year's most schizo team in the college football world was UCLA. Due mostly, but not all, to quarterback issues, the Bruins were great one week and terrible the next. They beat 11-2 BYU, only to lose 44-6 to Utah the following Saturday; scored 40+ twice in a row to win two Pac-10 games, then fell to abysmal Notre Dame while scoring just 6 points; they followed that with an upset of Cal, then lost three straight, after which they shut out Oregon 16-0. The 2007 UCLA Bruins had to be an oddsmakers' worst nightmare.

This year's UCLA team isn't quite like that. Though they upset Tennessee, the Vols don't look very good anymore and neither do the Bruins, who have been consistently poor since. Replacing them as this year's most schizophrenic team is Maryland.

The Terrapins opened with a lackluster 14-7 win over Division I-AA power Delaware. That could be written off as a fluke; indeed, I'd predicted a close game with Fightin' Blue Hens, who lost to Appalachian State in the FCS championship game last season. What I didn't predict is that Maryland would drop their next game 24-14, to the Sun Belt's Middle Tennessee State.

At this point even I—who had Maryland in my pre-season Top 25 at #25—had written off the Terrapins due to their lack of offensive productivity. But they surprisingly got it going against California, pulling off a 35-27 upset. They won their next two games as well, including a 20-17 upset of Clemson, and they looked to be right back on track, with the 4-1 record I'd expected at that juncture.

Maryland's next game was a trip to Virginia. The faltering Cavaliers had lost to USC by 45, to Connecticut by 35, and even to Duke by 28. Their only win was over I-AA Richmond. But the Terrapins were shut out 31-0.

After a week off to digest that humiliation, Maryland regrouped to face nationally ranked Wake Forest, the third team ranked at the time they faced them. Once again, Maryland prevailed, in a shocking 26-0 win, going from being shut out to achieving a shut out. That's something not even UCLA did last year.

It may be no fluke that the Virginia loss was a road game, while the Wake Forest win was at home. But another of Maryland's problem games (Delaware) was at home, and the Clemson win was on the road, so their loopy performance can't be explained away as a home/road phenomenon.

Their remaining schedule includes North Carolina State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College. All but N.C. State are or have been ranked this year, so given their track record I'd expect Maryland to lost to North Carolina State, then sweep the remaining four.

Unless, that is, they're favored in any of those games. Then they're in trouble.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 8

Texas solidified its spot at number one by thrashing Missouri 56-31 Saturday in the 2nd of their 4-game stretch of Top 25 opponents. Right now they are the only undefeated team that has beaten more than one Top 25 foe. Alabama and Penn State hold at #2 and #3; the Tide had a great first half against Mississippi and held on to win 24-20, while the Lions had a great 2nd half to come from behind and beat Michigan 46-17. Two more Big 12 teams round out the top 5, Texas Tech beating A&M 43-25 and Oklahoma State defeating Baylor 34-6. The Red Raiders started the year at #5 and have only advanced one spot despite going 7-0. Next week they have to prove their mettle against Kansas, while Penn State faces Ohio State for their first top 25 challenge. Meanwhile Texas and Oklahoma State clash, so there is much opportunity for a top five shakeup next week.

#6 Oklahoma beat Kansas 45-31 and now holds three wins over top 25 teams, with only one loss to the #1 team. It's criminal that they're behind USC in the coaches' poll. Despite the latter's 69-0 demolition of Washington State they hold at #8, passed by Utah. The Utes are undefeated and beat the team that beat the Trojans, and if both win out I contend that Utah should be ahead of USC in line for the BCS championship game. Georgia and undefeated Boise State round out the top ten. If USC had lost to Oregon, a team that the Broncos beat, instead of Oregon State, then I'd have Boise State ahead of USC instead of Utah.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 8 (10-19-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Losses/wins vs. Top 25
1	1	Texas	7-0	w=Oklahoma45-35;wMissouri56-31
2	2	Alabama	7-0	[email protected]
3	3	Penn State	8-0
4	4	Texas Tech	7-0
5	5	Oklahoma State	7-0	[email protected]
6	6	Oklahoma	6-1	L=Tex45-35;wCin52-26;wTCU35-7;wKU45-31
10	7	Utah	8-0
8	8	Southern Cal	5-1	[email protected];wOhioSt35-3
9	9	Georgia	6-1	L Ala41-30
11	10	Boise State	6-0
14	11	Ohio State	7-1	[email protected];wMinn34-21;[email protected]
13	12	Florida	5-1	L OleMiss31-30;wLSU51-21
15	13	Pittsburgh	5-1	L BowlingGreen27-17;[email protected]
16	14	South Florida	6-1	L Pitt26-21;wKansas37-34
--	15	TCU	7-1	[email protected];wBYU32-7
18	16	Cincinnati	5-1	[email protected]
19	17	Ball State	7-0
20	18	LSU	5-1	[email protected]
21	19	Tulsa	6-0
7	20	Brigham Young	6-1	[email protected]
12	21	Missouri	5-2	L OklahomaSt28-23;[email protected]
17	22	Kansas	5-2	[email protected];[email protected]
--	23	Georgia Tech	6-1	[email protected];[email protected]
--	24	Boston College	5-1	L GTech19-16;wVTech28-23
--	25	Minnesota	6-1	[email protected]
		out:
22	--	Virginia Tech	5-2	L=EC27-22;[email protected];wGT20-17;[email protected]
23	--	North Carolina	5-2	[email protected];L VTech20-17
24	--	California	4-2	[email protected];[email protected];wMichSt38-31
25	--	Michigan State	6-2	[email protected];L OSU45-7

Ohio State finally showed some life on offense, blitzing ex-#25 Michigan State 45-7 (with the help of the defense on two late fumble returns for TDs). This, along with their earlier win over new #25 Minnesota, allows them to move up for the first time in weeks, jumping #12 Florida. Mississippi fell to a losing record, slightly diminishing the idle Gators, but they still move up a spot. #13 Pittsburgh, who also lost to a losing team, and #14 South Florida both move up two spots.

Texas Christian, whom everyone is referring to as TCU these days (it used to be about 50/50), leaps into the rankings at #15 due to their 32-7 Thursday-night dismantling of former top ten BYU, who is hardly ever called Brigham Young any more. The Cougars drop to #20 as their formerly impressive win over UCLA doesn't look as hot. TCU's strong résumé—a top 25 win and loss to a top ten team—compares favorably even to Georgia, so they have room to advance if they keep winning, and could really leap if they beat Utah in November. Behind them is another team that lost to Oklahoma— #16 Cincinnati—and undefeated Ball State, both of whom were idle. LSU and Tulsa follow; the Tigers still rank low in power ratings, but Tulsa made a bit of a surge with their 77-35 win over UTEP. The Golden Hurricane were tied 28-28 in the first quarter but scored six touchdowns in the next 30 minutes.

The Big Twelve's Missouri and Kansas both suffer their second loss and drop to #21 and #22. Both teams' losses are to top 25 foes, so they stay in the rankings, unlike Virginia Tech, North Carolina, California, and Michigan State. Replacing them are Boston College, who beat the Hokies; Georgia Tech, who formerly lost to the Hokies but also defeated Boston College and now stands 6-1; and Minnesota, whose only loss is to Ohio State.

Dear Andrew Bagnato: BCS Computers can't consider score margin

I see it as my duty—since no one in the media seems to want to do it—to correct misconceptions about how the BCS computer algorithms work. While it may be difficult to get into details, a basic concept that all the BCS computer formulas must follow is this: margin of victory is not allowed to be used as a factor, period.

So when Andrew Bagnato writes in College Football Today,

With the first Bowl Championship Series standings due out Sunday, was No. 6 Southern California trying to send a message to the voters and the computers in a 69-0 rout of Washington State? Maybe.

He's inadvertantly spreading disinformation. The computers won't be impressed by the rout, no more than they'd be impressed by a 3-0 win by the Trojans. They won the game, and that's all they see.

In fact, some of the formulas might penalize USC for winning the game. If they use overall (average) strength of schedule in their algorithm rather than considering each game individually (like my Success power rating, which doesn't use score margin, and where teams aggregate points for each win), USC's schedule strength may decline and make them rate slightly lower.

Some of the formulas have had this effect in the past, though I'm not certain they still do—I don't want to spread disinformation of my own in this campaign season, but it's a common feature of many power ratings.

The really sad thing is, it probably will send a message to the voters. Not that a huge shutout win shouldn't send a message; I believe in using score margin to an extent when evaluating team performance. But let's put this one in context: they beat the 119th best team in Division I-A 69-0. Just because Washington State is a BCS conference school doesn't make the win impressive. But when voters see USC crush a team 69-0, the Trojans get a lot more credit than other schools would, mostly because no one pays attention to scores like these:

• California 66, Washington State 3
• Oregon 63, Washington State 14
• Oregon State 66, Washington State 13

From these results, it's clear no one should be impressed that a top ten team could score 69 on the Cougars, nor that they shut them out. It's almost the expected result. Using my Strength power rating, which *does* use score margin for it's results, the predicted result was USC 55, Washington State 0.

Therefore, a score-margin-based power rating might be somewhat impressed by USC's win. The voters, however, should note that everyone in the Pac-10 was scoring 60+ on the Cougars, so high-ranked USC should do the same. And certainly, none of the BCS computers will care at all.

It will be interesting to see if USC jumps anyone else due to beating one of the worst teams in Division I-A by a score that should come as no surprise to anyone. In the AP poll USC was 6th and Florida—idle this week—5th. The Harris poll finds USC tied with Oklahoma, which is a joke considering Oklahoma's résumé, which was strengthened further with a win over Kansas. The Sooners should pull ahead this week, unless USC's win mistakenly sways the Harris voters more.

ESPN360, get your shit together

I've had it with ESPN360. They list two great games—Ohio State vs. Michigan State, and Kansas vs. Oklahoma—only to "black out" one of them right before the game (there's no technology that could determine this earlier?) and the other is a blank screen.

This is almost as bad as ending the broadcast with 1 minute left in the 4th quarter, which is another all-too-common occurrence. Get your shit together or stop promising what you can't deliver.

Update: Now the entire slate is down. Nothing showing at all.

Heisman Top 25 - week 7: 'Strike one' for Chase Daniel

The Heisman race is a lot like batting in baseball; you have three strikes before you're out. A lot of Heisman watchers tend to treat a miss-step as a pop-fly the puts you out of the race, but usually you get a few freebies that can be forgiven. A really bad game, or for quarterbacks, a loss, is one strike; both Chase Daniel and Sam Bradford got one this week. Being a sophomore has been strike against as well. Last year Tim Tebow had four strikes against him and the year was wild enough that he still won! If everyone else has even more strikes, suddenly you're up to bat again.

That's why Chase Daniel remains #1 despite Missouri's loss. He didn't play all that well either, throwing three interceptions. This is a perfect definition of a 'strike.' But later in the year, when everyone else has a strike or two, Daniel's mistake won't be considered worse than theirs. So while his huge lead is a thing of the past, he's still positioned well. Sam Bradford falls as well, but he played very well in his loss, throwing five touchdown passes. His sophomore status may be another strike; it's too early to tell whether Tim Tebow broke that taboo, or just softened it. Speaking of Tebow, Florida's win over LSU stopped his downward slide in the race and all but assured him of a trip to New York if he plays well and Florida keeps winning. His odds of taking the Heisman a 2nd time didn't increase any, as his stats will be much lower than last year's and people don't like to see that.

Colt McCoy jumped from #8 to #4 and is on the verge of taking command of the Heisman race. Most people put him #1 right now, but I do want to see if people forget about him, like the others, if Texas loses to Missouri. A win in that game would give McCoy wins over the top two QBs in the race. He definitely controls his destiny as far as the Heisman is concerned, but then, so did Daniel a week ago.

The #5 spot represents the last player I think will get invited to New York. I think the top four are settled, and right now Max Hall is a tenuous #5. He was already tenuous before BYU's loss on Thursday night, which wasn't considered at the time of these rankings; as his candidacy depended on BYU going undefeated, his chances of winning fall to virtually nil and odds are he doesn't finish in the top 5. Mark Sanchez and Knowshon Moreno have already dropped to less-than-likely New York invitees, even assuming they finish strong.

1. (1) Chase Daniel, Missouri
    26-45  58%  359yd  3TD 1int; 9rsh  46yd 5.1av 0TD 0fmb (=ILL 52-42)
    16-17  94%  245yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh   0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (SEMoSt 52-3)
    23-28  82%  405yd  4TD 0int; 1rsh  12yd 12 av 0TD 0fmb (Nev 69-17)
    36-43  84%  439yd  2TD 0int; 4rsh  16yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (Buff. 42-21)
    18-23  78%  253yd  3TD 0int; 1rsh   0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (@Neb 52-17)
    39-52  75%  390yd  1TD 3int; 7rsh  46yd 6.6av 0TD 0fmb (L OKst28-23)
   158-208 76% 2055yd 16TD 4int;22rsh 120yd 5.5av 0TD 0fmb
2. (2) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
    17-22  77%  183yd  2TD 0int; 0rsh   0yd   0av 0TD 0fmb (Chatt 57-2)
    29-38  76%  395yd  5TD 2int; 3rsh   3yd   1av 0TD 0fmb (Cincy 52-26)
    18-21  86%  304yd  5TD 0int; 1rsh   1yd   1av 1TD 0fmb (@Wash 55-14)
    19-34  56%  411yd  4TD 0int; 4rsh -31yd  -8av 0TD 0fmb (TCU 35-10)
    23-31  74%  372yd  2TD 1int; 2rsh   4yd   2av 1TD 0fmb (@Bayl 49-17)
    28-39  72%  387yd  5TD 2int; 8rsh  -5yd -.6av 0TD 0fmb (L=Tex 45-35)
   134-185 72% 2052yd 23TD 5int;18rsh -28yd-1.6av 2TD 0fmb
3. (3) Tim Tebow, Florida
     9-14  64%  137yd  1TD 0int; 9rsh  37yd 4.1av 0TD 0fmb (Haw 56-10)
    21-35  60%  256yd  2TD 0int;13rsh  55yd 4.2av 0TD 0fmb (Miami 26-3)
     8-15  53%   96yd  2TD 0int;12rsh  26yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (@Tenn 30-6)
    24-38  63%  319yd  1TD 0int;15rsh   7yd 0.5av 2TD 1fmb (L Miss31-30)
    17-26  65%  217yd  2TD 1int;12rsh  32yd 2.7av 0TD 0fmb (@Ark 38-7)
    14-21  67%  210yd  2TD 0int;12rsh  22yd 1.8av 1TD 1fmb (LSU 51-31)
    93-149 62% 1235yd 10TD 1int;73rsg 179yd 2.5av 3TD 2fmb
   
4. (8) Colt McCoy, Texas
    24-29  83%  222yd  3TD 0int;12rsh 103yd 8.6av 1TD 0fmb (FLAtl 52-10)
    20-29  69%  282yd  4TD 1int; 5rsh   8yd 1.6av 0TD 0fmb (@UTEP 42-13)
    19-23  83%  329yd  4TD 0int; 8rsh  83yd  10av 1TD 0fmb (Rice 52-10)
    17-19  90%  185yd  3TD 0int; 9rsh  84yd 9.3av 2TD 0fmb (Ark 52-10)
    23-30  77%  262yd  2TD 2int;11rsh  39yd 3.5av 0TD 0fmb (@Colo 38-14)
    28-35  80%  277yd  1TD 0int;14rsh  31yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (=OK 45-35)
   131-165 79% 1557yd 17TD 3int;59rsh 348yd 5.9av 4TD 0fmb
5. (6) Max Hall, BYU
    34-41  83%  486yd  2TD 0int; 3rsh  4yd 0.8av 1TD 2fmb (UNI 41-17)
    30-41  73%  338yd  3TD 1int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (@Wash 28-27)
    27-35  77%  271yd  7TD 1int; 3rsh 12yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (UCLA 59-0)
    16-27  59%  189yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (Wy 44-0)
    23-37  62%  303yd  2TD 2int; 4rsh  1yd 0.3av 0TD 0fmb (@UTst 34-14)
    22-34  65%  258yd  3TD 0int; 3rsh 15yd 5.0av 0TD 0fmb (NMex 21-3)
   152-215 71% 1845yd 20TD 4int;13rsh 32yd 2.5av 1TD 2fmb
6. (4) Mark Sanchez, USC
    26-35  74%  338yd  3TD 1int; 1rsh   6yd 6.0av 0TD 0fmb (@VA 52-7)
    17-28  61%  172yd  4TD 1int; 2rsh -10yd -10av 0TD 0fmb (OSU 35-3)
    18-29  62%  227yd  3TD 1int; 4rsh   7yd 1.8av 0TD 0fmb ([email protected])
    19-28  68%  332yd  3TD 0int; 4rsh  -4yd  -1av 0TD 1fmb (Ore 44-10)
    13-26  50%  179yd  1TD 3int; 5rsh  -4yd -.8av 1TD 1fmb (@ASU 28-0)
    93-146 64% 1248yd 14TD 6int;16rsh -13yd -.8av 1TD 2fmb
7. (5) Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
     8rsh  59yd 7.4av  3TD 0fmb; 2rec  53yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Ga.S 45-21)
    18rsh 168yd 9.3av  3TD 0fmb; 3rec  30yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (C Mich 56-17)
    20rsh  79yd 4.0av  1TD 0fmb; 2rec  13yd 0TD;32 rtYd (@SCaro 14-7)
    23rsh 149yd 6.5av  2TD 0fmb; 0rec   0yd 0TD;-2 rtYd (@ASU 27-10)
     9rsh  34yd 3.8av  1TD 0fmb; 3rec  14yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (L Ala41-30)
    27rsh 101yd 3.7av  0TD 0fmb; 1rec  14yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Tenn 25-14)
   105rsh 590yd 5.6av 10TD 0fmb;11rec 124yd 0TD;30 rtYd
8. (11) Javon Ringer, MichSt: 35rsh 124yd 3.5av 2TD 0fmb; 2rec 16yd 0TD (@Nw 37-20)
   season: 247rsh 1112yd 4.5av 14TD 2fmb; 9rec 76yd 0TD;224 rtYd
9. (7) Chris Wells, Ohio State: 22rsh 94yd 4.3av 0TD 0fmb; 2rec 3yd 0TD (Purdue 16-3)
   season: 71rsh 479yd 6.7av 2TD 2fmb; 6rec 13yd 0TD
10. (10) G. Harrell, T. Tech: 20-25 80% 284yd 2TD 0int; 1rsh 1yd 1.0av 1TD (Neb 37-31ot)
    season: 178-262 68% 20TD 3int; 10rsh -4yd -0.4av 3TD 0fmb
11. (9) Pat White, WVA: 75-103 73% 590yd 9TD 1int; 70rsh 428yd 6.1av 2TD 1fmb
12. (12) Jeremy Maclin, MO: 39rec 600yd 5TD 1fmb; 13rsh 64yd 4.9av 1TD; 493rtYd 1TD
13. (13) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech: 43rec 653yd 10TD; 1rsh 3yd 3.0av 0TD 0fmb
14. (18) Daryll Clark, Penn St: 96-149 64% 1360yd 10TD 2int;38rsh 145yd 3.8av 6TD 1fmb
15. (15) Donald Brown, UConn: 179rsh 1067yd 6.0av 12TD 1fmb; 9rec 50yd 0TD
16. (14) Charles Scott, LSU: 83rsh 577yd 7.0av 6TD 1fmb; 5rec 45yd 0TD
17. (16) Juice Williams, Ill: 107-183 58% 1677yd 13TD 7int; 101rsh 445yd 4.4ave 4TD 2fmb 
18. (17) P.J. Hill, Wisconsin: 123rsh 570yds 4.6av 5TD 1fmb; 3rec 38yd 0TD
19. (new) Zac Robinson, OkSt: 81-114 71% 1250yd 12TD 4int;59rsh 192yd 5TD 3fmb
20. (20) Jahvid Best, Cal: 59rsh 421yd 7.1av 4TD 1fmb; 14rec 157yd 0TD; 284 rtYd
21. (25) Percy Harvin, Florida: 27rsh 177yd 6.6av 2TD 1fmb; 19rec 284yd 3TD
22. (22) James Laurinaitis, Ohio State: 67 tackles (29 solo, 1 for loss); 1 INT
23. (19) Matt Stafford, Georgia: 111-180 62% 1503yd 8TD 3int; 27rsh 48yd 1.8av 0TD 0fmb
24. (new) Dez Bryant, OkSt: 34rec 597yd 9TD 1fmb; 348rtYD 2TD
25. (21) David Johnson, Tulsa: 117-173 68% 1963yd 26TD 7int;31rsh 69yd 2.2av 1TD 0fmb

Others: Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State; MiQuale Lewis, Ball State; Nate Davis, Ball State; Glen Coffee, Alabama, John Parker Wilson, Alabama.

Javon Ringer recovered from his first stumble in the limelight with 124 yards and 2 touchdowns against Northwester; more important, he's still #2 in the nation in rushing and has 14 TDs already. With a few weaker candidates ahead of him he jumps to #8 and could make the top five after this weekend. He's clearly ahead of Chris Wells at this point; the latter doesn't have enough chances to make up the yardage needed to be a consideration. For Ringer the bar was set a bit higher from the start, and he's still very unlikely to win. The two face each other this week.

Texas Tech's Graham Harrell holds at #10 yet again. He avoided getting a 'strike' by leading his team past Nebraska in overtime. His overall stats are looking very good these days, leaving him in position to advance when the Red Raiders start playing tougher teams...which isn't this week: they face Texas A&M next, then Kansas and Texas. He'll be a latecomer to the top five if they win all those. #11 Pat White falls another two spots and it's looking like he won't get a single vote now, after starting the year as one of the leaders. If the Mountaineers win out and he excels he could slip back into the top ten, but they're done with the softish middle part of their schedule. Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree's Heisman runs have stalled, too; they remain on the radar in case they do something spectacular, but both are overshadowed by their QBs.

#14 Daryll Clark still has momentum and a lot of upside potential as he moves from #18 for undefeated Penn State. Watch for him to make a big move if the Lions beat Ohio State in two weeks. His outside chance of winning the trophy depends on Penn State going undefeated. He jumps past two running backs, idle Donald Brown of UConn and LSU's Charles Scott (who had a dismal outing in the Tigers' dismal effort against Florida), as well as two Big Ten contenders, Illinois' Juice Williams and Wisconsin's P.J. Hill. Both of the latter teams lost their third game last week, leaving these players on the edge of irrelevance, especially Hill who had another lackluster game statistically.

Following Oklahoma State's big upset of #1 Missouri, two Cowboy players make their way into the rankings. Zac Robinson is 19th and set to rise as long as they can keep winning, while #24 Dez Bryant as a receiver needs to keep returning punts for touchdowns to even stay remotely on the radar. Robinson could potentially make the top five, but mostly he's setting himself up for a possible run next year. They replace Louis Sakoda, who is still doing very well but is a kicker for gosh's sake, and Rey Maualuga, a linebacker who isn't tackling as many people as expected.

Ohio State's James Laurinaitis hangs on, however, as the token defensive player at #22, while Percy Harvin actually jumps four spots to #25 after being declared dead last week. His touchdowns last week still don't put his stats equal to #20 Jahvid Best's, though, and realistically neither has much chance of making a big move. That is also true of Matt Stafford, who falls from #19 to #23, and Tulsa's David Johnson, who also drops four spots from #21 to #25. Both hang on just due to the possibility that they get back in the limelight, Stafford if Georgia wins big the next few weeks, and Johnson if Tulsa starts looking impressive. He's still the nation's top rated passer (according to the overrated "efficiency" figures).

A third Oklahoma State player, running back Kendall Hunter, along with two Ball State players and two Alabama teammates, are waiting for their breakthrough. All are on undefeated teams and need to do something big to get noticed, though the longer their teams keep the "0" in the "L" column the better.

Mid-term Report Cards for all 120 Division I-A (FBS) teams

It's roughly the mid-point of the season. Most teams have played six games out of their twelve-game schedule. How have they fared?

SportsRatings has graded each team and issued a report card for all 120 teams. The two basic factors considered are: How has the team done so far? And, how has the team done, considering who they are? In other words, teams are graded by absolute and relative performance.

For absolute performance, a team's success at winning games and their offensive and defensive production are considered. For relative performance, teams are graded on how they've improved from last year, and how much they've exceeded pre-season expectations.

The following KEY explains the grades in the report card:

PERF grade: Raw performance in wins and losses (25% of Final Grade). Uses the Success Power Rating which rewards good wins and penalizes bad losses.

PERF off/def: Grades offensive and defensive performance (total of 25% of final grade). Offense and defense are graded according to scoring and yardage production, each corrected for opposition. See scoring and yardage statistics in sidebar.

vs. 2007: How much the team has improved (or not) from last season. 25% of Final Grade.

vs. EXP: A measure of how much the team has met, exceeded, or fallen short of pre-season expectations (25% of Final Grade). Calculated by comparisons with SportsRatings' pre-season outlook.

Final Grade: A merging of all four of the above.

Comments: Some additional thoughts about the student's work, a necessary part of any report card.

Class rank	Team	PERF grade	PERF Off / Def		vs. 2007	vs. EXP	Final Grade	Comments
1	Georgia Tech	A	B	A	A	A	A	HAS ADAPTED WELL TO NEW INSTRUCTOR
2	Alabama	A+	B+	A+	A	B+	A	IS SHOWING BETTER ATTITUDE
3	Ball St	A+	A	B	A+	B	A	HAS MET CHALLENGES WITH ENTHUSIASM
4	Oklahoma St	A+	A+	B-	A	B	A	HAS SHOWN GREAT MATURITY
5	Northwestern	B+	B	A-	A	A	A	WORK IS CONSISTENTLY GOOD
6	Texas	A+	A+	A	B+	B-	A-	HAS EXCELLED IN ALL AREAS
7	Vanderbilt	A-	D	A-	A	A	A-	IS MAKING MOST OF ABILITIES
8	Penn State	A+	A	A	A	C	A-	SHOWS GOOD WORK AND GREAT POTENTIAL
9	Minnesota	B+	B-	C	A+	A+	A-	HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY THIS YEAR
10	Boise St	A	C	A	A	B	A-	ALWAYS STRIVES FOR PERFECTION
11	California	A	A	B-	B	B	B+	NEEDS CONSISTENT LEADER TO PROGRESS
12	Utah	A+	B+	B+	A	C	B+	HAS MET ALL CHALLENGES AND EXCELLED
13	TCU	A-	B-	A+	A-	C+	B+	IS MANAGING TIME WELL
14	Michigan St	A	B	B	A	C+	B+	MUST WORK HARD TO FINISH YEAR STRONG
15	North Carolina	A	C	C-	A+	B-	B	HAS DEMONSTRATED IMPROVED SKILLS IN MANY AREAS
16	Tulsa	A	A+	D	A	C+	B	EXCELLENT WORK OVERALL BUT SOME AREAS DEFICIENT
17	Texas Tech	A	A	B	B+	C	B	SOMETIMES SHOWS LUCK OF ENTHUSIASM
18	Notre Dame	B	C	C	A-	A-	B	HAS IMPROVED GREATLY BY MOST MEASURES
19	Navy	B	B+	D	B+	A+	B	HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS SO FAR
20	San Jose St	B-	F	A-	A-	A	B	GOOD WORK BUT ONE DEFICIENT SKILL AREA REMAINS
21	Western Mich.	B+	B	D+	A	B+	B	CONTINUES TO WORK TOWARDS GOALS
22	Southern Cal	A	A	A+	C	C	B	HAS EXCELLED EXCEPT FOR ONE VERY POOR DAY!
23	Mississippi	B	A	D+	A	C+	B	WORK IS GOOD BUT LACKS CONSISTENCY
24	Oregon St	B	A	A-	C-	B	B	HAS EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS AT TIMES
25	Duke	B	D+	B+	A+	C+	B	QUALITY OF WORK HAS MARKEDLY IMPROVED
26	Oklahoma	A	A+	B+	C	C-	B	HAS NEARLY MET LOFTY EXPECTATIONS
27	Florida	A-	A	A	C-	C-	B	SOME DAYS TIMMY HASN'T SEEMED LIKE HIMSELF
28	Air Force	B-	C-	B+	C	A	B	HAS FARED WELL AMONG DIFFICULT PEER GROUP
29	BYU	A+	B+	B	C	C	B	HAS SOMETIMES BULLIED OTHERS
30	Georgia	A	A	A	D+	C	B	DEMONSTRATES COMMITMENT TOWARD GOALS
31	Florida Int'l	C	F	C	A	A+	B	IS ENJOYING THIS YEAR MUCH MORE
32	Pittsburgh	B+	C+	A	B-	C	B	STARTED YEAR SLOW BUT IS GAINING GROUND
33	Nebraska	B	A-	C	B	C	B	FALLS SHORT WHEN ASSIGNED MORE DIFFICULT TASKS
34	Rice	C	A	F	A-	B	B	EXHIBITS IMPROVEMENTS IN MANY AREAS
35	Iowa	C+	B	A	B-	C+	B-	HAS TROUBLE COMPLETING TASKS SUCCESSFULLY
36	Missouri	A-	A+	A-	D	C-	B-	NEEDS TO STAY MOTIVATED
37	Stanford	B	B	C-	C+	B	B-	MUST WORK ON CONSISTENCY
38	Colorado St	C	D+	C+	A-	B-	B-	HAS COMPLETED EXPECTED TASKS
39	N Mexico St	C	C+	F	A	B+	B-	HAS SHOWN IMPROVED ABILITIES
40	Virginia Tech	A	D	B+	C	C	B-	STARTED POORLY BUT HAS IMPRESSED WITH IMPROVEMENT
41	Wake Forest	A-	F	A+	C+	C	B-	MUST CORRECT DEFICIENT AREAS
42	Florida St	B	A-	C	C	C	C+	HAS DISCOVERED NEW TALENTS
43	N. Illinois	D+	F	B	B+	A	C+	HAS OVERCOME ADVERSITY REMARKABLY WELL
44	LA-Lafayette	D+	A-	F	B	A-	C+	IS EXHIBITING NEW TALENTS
45	Ohio State	A	D+	A	C	D+	C+	WORK HAS OFTEN BEEN DISAPPOINTING
46	South Florida	A-	B	B	C-	D+	C+	SHOWS LACK OF ENTHUSIASM FOR SOME SUBJECTS
47	Connecticut	A-	C+	C+	C	C-	C+	HAS COMPLETED MOST WORK SATISFACTORILY
48	Bowling Green	B-	B-	D+	B	C	C+	HAS POTENTIAL FOR SUCCESSFUL YEAR
49	Arkansas St	C	C	D+	B	B	C+	HAS BEEN PLEASANTLY SURPRISING
50	Akron	D+	C+	D	B	A-	C+	PERFORMANCE UP AND DOWN WEEK TO WEEK
51	Houston	C+	A	D	B-	C	C+	IS DISCOVERING NEW TALENTS
52	Louisville	B-	C	B-	C	C+	C+	WORK QUALITY IS NOT UP TO USUAL LEVEL
53	Miami FL	C-	C-	B	C	B+	C+	HAS SHOWN MUCH POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT
54	Kansas	B+	B+	B	D	C	C+	CONTINUES TO SHOW ENTHUSIASM
55	East Carolina	B	D+	D+	B	C	C+	STARTED YEAR WELL BUT EFFORT LEVEL HAS FALLEN
56	Baylor	D+	B	D	B	B	C+	STRUGGLING WITH ROUGH PEER GROUP
57	Kentucky	B	C-	A	D	C	C	HAS DONE WELL CONSIDERING CHALLENGES
58	LSU	B	A-	C	D	C	C	QUALITY OF WORK HAS SLIPPED SOMEWHAT
59	Kansas St	B-	A-	F	C+	C	C	IS EXPERIENCING SOME TROUBLES BUT PERSEVERING
60	Boston College	B	C	A	D	C-	C	WORKING WELL SO FAR WITH CHANGED FOCUS
61	Central Mich.	C	B	D	B-	C	C	SHOWING SOME PROGRESS IN DEFICIENT AREAS
62	S. Carolina	B	D+	A+	C	D	C	LEVEL OF WORK NOT UP TO ABILITIES
63	Cincinnati	B	C	B-	D+	C-	C	HAS MET CHALLENGES SO FAR
64	Illinois	C	A	B-	D	C	C	CONCERNED ABOUT MORALE IF LETDOWN CONTINUES
65	Virginia	B	D	C	C-	C	C	HAS IMPROVED GREATLY DURING THE YEAR
66	Maryland	B	D+	D	B	D	C	MUST SHOW GREATER CONSISTENCY
67	Colorado	C+	D+	B	C	C-	C	DEMONSTRATES GOOD EFFORT FOR ABILITY LEVEL
68	Arizona	C	B	B	C-	D+	C	VERY FRUSTRATING PERFORMANCE GIVEN POTENTIAL
69	Nevada	C-	A	F	C+	C	C	PROBLEM AREAS HAVE NOT IMPROVED
70	UTEP	D+	B	F	C+	B	C	POOR WORK IS SHOWING IMPROVING
71	Troy	C	B	D+	C-	C	C	TENDS TO DOMINATE PEER GROUP
72	Buffalo	D+	B-	C	C+	C	C	SHOWING FAIR LEVEL OF IMPROVEMENT
73	Oregon	B	A	F	D	C-	C	EXHIBITS LACK OF CONSISTENCY
74	M Tenn. St	C-	F	C	C+	B-	C	HAS SURPRISED PLEASANTLY AT TIMES
75	UNLV	C-	C	F	B	C	C	NEEDS TO FOCUS ON TASKS
76	Wisconsin	C	C+	B	D	C	C	TOO MUCH WAS EXPECTED BY SOME
77	Army	D	F	C	C	B+	C	MUCH BETTER WORK THAN ANTICIPATED
78	Iowa St	D	C	C-	D+	B	C	SHOWS FUTURE POTENTIAL
79	Ohio U	D	D+	C-	C-	B-	C	COMES UP SHORT ON DIFFICULT TASKS
80	New Mexico	C	D	C+	D+	C+	C	HAS BOTH GOOD AND BAD EFFORTS
81	Temple	D	F	B	C+	C+	C	MEETING EXPECTATIONS BUT COULD DO MORE
82	Tulane	D	C-	C	C	C	C	HAS SUFFERED RECENT SETBACKS TOWARD GOALS
83	Marshall	C-	F	F	B	C	C	MUST TURN EFFORT INTO MORE PROGRESS
84	Memphis	D+	C	D+	C	C-	C-	SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE
85	N. Carolina St	C	D	F	C-	C+	C-	NEEDS TO STAY FOCUSED TO ACHIEVE IMPROVEMENT
86	Toledo	D	D	D	C	C+	C-	HAS COMPLETED TOUGHEST ASSIGNMENTS
87	Purdue	D+	C	C+	D	C-	C-	SOMEWHAT DISAPPOINTING EFFORT
88	Arkansas	C	B-	D	F	C	D+	VERY DISAPPOINTING WORK
89	Fresno St	C	B	F	D+	D+	D+	NEEDS TO SHOW MORE EFFORT
90	LA Tech	D+	D	F	C	C+	D+	SHOWS INCONSISTENCY IN KEY AREAS
91	Southern Miss	D+	B	D	D+	D+	D+	MAY BECOME FRUSTRATED AT POOR PERFORMANCE
92	Mississippi St	C	F	B	D	D	D+	HAS NOT MET POTENTIAL SO FAR
93	Hawai`i	C	D+	C-	F	C	D+	WORK HAS UNDERSTANDABLY DECREASED
94	UAB	F	C	F	C	C	D+	HAS TROUBLE LEAVING TASKS UNFINISHED
95	Arizona St	D+	D	A	F	D	D+	HAS NOT MET EXPECTATIONS
96	Tennessee	D	D	A	F	D+	D+	VERY DISAPPOINTED WITH OVERALL EFFORT
97	W. Kentucky	D	F	D	D+	C	D+	ROUGH TRANSITION INTO NEW CLASS
98	SMU	F	D	F	C	C	D+	HAS NOT SHOWN IMPROVEMENT WITH NEW INSTRUCTOR
99	Indiana	D	C	D	D	D	D+	SHOWS LACK OF EFFORT RECENTLY
100	E. Michigan	D	D	F	C	D	D+	MUST IMPROVE IN ALL AREAS
101	Syracuse	F	C	D	D+	C-	D+	WORK IS CONSISTENTLY POOR
102	Auburn	C+	F	A	F	F	D	VERY DISAPPOINTING IN CERTAIN AREAS
103	West Virginia	C+	D	B	F	F	D	OVERALL WORK QUALITY HAS FALLEN DRAMATICALLY
104	Wyoming	D	F	C	D	D+	D	HAS TROUBLE HOLDING ON TO POSSESSIONS
105	Kent St	F	D+	D	C	D	D	FAILS TO COMPLETE SATISFACTORY WORK
106	Idaho	F	F	F	C	C	D	HAS TROUBLE CONCENTRATING ON TASKS
107	Utah St	F	F	F	C	C	D	NEEDS TO IMPROVE SELF-DISCIPLINE
108	North Texas	F	F	F	C	C-	D	LACKS UNDERSTANDING OF SUBJECT MATTER
109	Clemson	C	D	C+	F	F	D	VERY POOR PERFORMANCE; ASSIGNED NEW INSTRUCTOR
110	UCLA	D	F	D+	F	C	D	HAVING TROUBLE WITH BASIC SUBJECTS
111	Miami OH	F	F	F	D+	D	D	MAKES CARELESS MISTAKES
112	Florida Atl.	F	D	D+	F	D	D	SHOWED OVERCONFIDENCE EARLY ON
113	Michigan	D	F	C	F	F	D	NEW INSTRUCTOR HAS NOT BEEN EFFECTIVE
114	Texas A&M	D	C-	F	F	F	F	SUB-PAR WORK IN GENERAL
115	UCF	D	F	D+	F	F	F	DISORGANIZED; WORK IS NOT NEAT
116	Rutgers	F	F	C	F	F	F	IS NOT WORKING UP TO CAPABILITIES
117	Washington	F	F	F	F	D	F	MUST DO BETTER REST OF YEAR
118	Washington St	F	F	F	F	D	F	VERY POOR PERFORMANCE IN ALL AREAS
119	LA-Monroe	F	F	F	F	D	F	CONFUSED EASILY DURING TASKS
120	San Diego St	F	F	F	D	F	F	LACKS FOCUS AND ABILITY

Lineal Top 25 week 7 - Oklahoma State is new all-time champion!

I almost didn't realize it—since I've been neglecting the poor Lineal Top 25—but there is a new "All-Time College Football Champion" and it is the Oklahoma State Cowboys!

Starting way back in 1869 with the Rutgers-Princeton winner and carrying through until today, if you leapfrog winners over losers, you can track the #1 team of all-time (in a sense) and extended down 24 more teams, you have the Lineal Top 25.

At the end of last season Missouri took over the #1 spot and didn't relinquish it until this week. Here is the current state of the Lineal Top 25:

Week 7 (games thru 10/11/2008)
lw  new Team                    rec  last week's result
--   1. Oklahoma State          6-0  Beat Missouri
1    2. Missouri                5-1  Lost to Oklahoma State
2    3. Alabama                 6-0
3    4. Texas                   6-0
4    5. Florida                 5-1  Beat LSU
5    6. Arkansas                3-3  Beat Auburn
6    7. LSU                     4-1  Lost to Florida
7    8. Georgia                 5-1 
23   9. Mississippi State       2-4  Beat Vanderbilt
8   10. Vanderbilt              5-1  Lost to Mississippi State
9   11. Auburn                  4-3  Lost to Arkansas
10  12. Utah                    7-0 
11  13. Michigan State          6-1 
--  14. North Carolina          5-1  Beat Notre Dame
12  15. Notre Dame              4-2  Lost to North Carolina
--  16. Minnesota               6-1  Beat Illinois
13  17. Illinois                3-3  Lost to Minnesota
--  18. Toledo                  3-4  Beat Michigan
14  19. Michigan                2-4  Lost to Toledo
15  20. South Carolina          5-2 
16  21. Mississippi             3-3
17  22. Pittsburgh              4-1
18  23. South Florida           5-1 
19  24. Kansas                  5-1
20  25. Boise State             5-0

Oklahoma State flies in all the way from who knows where to take the #1 spot. Technically I could figure out where they were last week but laziness has taken its toll on my interest in the Lineal Top 25 except on weeks where the top spot changes.

Not much else happened except Mississippi State, already on last week's list at #23, upset Vanderbilt to jump to #9. As normally happens, a cluster of same-conference teams formed around Arkansas and LSU, with a total of eight SEC teams in the top 11. During conference play this gets even more prominent, until the bowl season breaks things up a bit.

North Carolina and Minnesota jump in by beating Notre Dame and Illinois, respectively, but Toledo slips in at #18 by beating Michigan. They're the only MAC team in the Lineal Top 25, and probably the first one in a very long time. Again, I could research this but, nahh.

Best Offenses and Defenses, week 7

Which teams have the best scoring offense and defense so far? Here is an update based on adjusted scoring margins. Offense values are corrected for opponents' defenses, and vice versa. 

The top 20 best scoring offenses as of October 11, 2008:

  #  Team                         rec    Margin  Off    Def
  1. Oklahoma                     5-1    32.29  50.77  18.48
  2. Missouri                     5-1    32.03  47.55  15.51
  3. Penn State                   7-0    36.27  45.59   9.31
  4. Texas                        6-0    34.84  44.57   9.72
  5. Oklahoma St                  6-0    22.34  43.49  21.15
  6. Tulsa                        6-0    14.43  41.40  26.96
  7. Oregon                       5-2    11.82  40.77  28.95
  8. Southern Cal                 4-1    35.54  40.70   5.15
  9. California                   4-1    18.98  40.66  21.67
 10. Georgia                      5-1    22.08  38.95  16.86
 11. Mississippi                  3-3    11.97  38.84  26.87
 12. Texas Tech                   6-0    22.19  38.41  16.22
 13. Oregon St                    3-3    18.24  38.32  20.08
 14. Rice                         3-3     1.21  37.93  36.72
 15. Florida                      5-1    26.82  37.81  10.98
 16. Nebraska                     3-3    13.57  37.03  23.45
 17. North Carolina               5-1    18.13  36.93  18.80
 18. Navy                         4-2     7.91  36.87  28.95
 19. Alabama                      6-0    22.49  36.61  14.12
 20. Illinois                     3-3    12.58  36.58  23.99

Oklahoma replaces Missouri at the top of the list, as Missouri scored a meager 23 points, while the Sooners, despite losing, scored 35 on Texas which is still pretty impressive if not up to their prior 50+ point average. Oklahoma State beat the Tigers but their 28 points drops them as well, while Texas improved to #4 by being the first team to score more than 26 on Oklahoma. The other Oklahoma team in the top ten, Tulsa, was #4 last week but struggled to put up 37 against porous SMU which drops them to #6. Penn State jumped to #3 for scoring 48 on stingy Wisconsin.

Conference-wise, the Big Twelve no longer has the top three teams, but has a stunning four of the top five scoring offenses in the country. In general it's passing that's responsible, though in Oklahoma State's case there is a lot more balance.

Here are the 20 best scoring defenses in the land right now:

  #  Team                         rec    Margin  Off    Def
  1. Southern Cal                 4-1    35.54  40.70   5.15
  2. Wake Forest                  4-1    14.42  22.29   7.87
  3. Penn State                   7-0    36.27  45.59   9.31
  4. Texas                        6-0    34.84  44.57   9.72
  5. TCU                          6-1    17.50  27.39   9.88
  6. Florida                      5-1    26.82  37.81  10.98
  7. South Carolina               5-2    13.92  25.53  11.61
  8. Georgia Tech                 5-1    21.25  32.93  11.68
  9. Iowa                         4-3    16.88  28.64  11.76
 10. Boise St                     5-0    14.11  26.22  12.11
 11. Kentucky                     4-2    16.14  28.52  12.38
 12. Alabama                      6-0    22.49  36.61  14.12
 13. Arizona St                   2-4     7.64  22.17  14.52
 14. Ohio State                   6-1    12.54  27.15  14.60
 15. Auburn                       4-3     3.11  18.24  15.13
 16. Missouri                     5-1    32.03  47.55  15.51
 17. Vanderbilt                   5-1    10.44  26.49  16.04
 18. Michigan St                  6-1    16.10  32.32  16.21
 19. Texas Tech                   6-0    22.19  38.41  16.22
 20. Virginia Tech                5-1    12.37  28.75  16.37

Not much difference this week as USC shut out ASU to solidify their spot at the top and #3 Penn State held Wisconsin to 7. Texas ("held" Oklahoma to 35) moved into the top five. Florida and South Carolina still represent the SEC in the top ten but Kentucky slipped out and Auburn allowed Arkansas 25 points, which is more than the Razorbacks scored against Florida and Alabama combined.

Iowa might be a surprise in the top ten, but the Hawkeyes held their first three opponents to 8 points, held Pitt, Northwestern, and Michigan State below par, and allowed Indiana to just 9 this weekend. Ohio State's D has begun to move up a bit as well, though it still looks nothing like last year's.

The surprising gap between Florida's offense and defense is closing, too. Last week Florida's defense ranked #4, their offense only 27th. After their 51-21 crushing of LSU, those numbers are now 6th and 15th, and while it's still backwards from what was expected, it seems a lot more reasonable now.

Power Ratings: week 7

Now at the mid-point of the season, here are the top 20 teams in the SportsRatings Overall (or Combined) Power Rating:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Texas                        6-0    44.33 [ 1]  34.84 [ 3]   9.49 [ 1]
  2. Penn State                   7-0    43.21 [ 2]  36.27 [ 1]   6.94 [ 5]
  3. Southern Cal                 4-1    40.43 [ 3]  35.54 [ 2]   4.88 [11]
  4. Oklahoma                     5-1    36.85 [ 4]  32.29 [ 4]   4.55 [12]
  5. Missouri                     5-1    35.19 [ 5]  32.03 [ 5]   3.16 [25]
  6. Alabama                      6-0    31.30 [ 6]  22.49 [ 7]   8.81 [ 2]
  7. Florida                      5-1    30.16 [ 7]  26.82 [ 6]   3.33 [23]
  8. Oklahoma St                  6-0    29.90 [ 8]  22.34 [ 8]   7.56 [ 3]
  9. Texas Tech                   6-0    27.80 [ 9]  22.19 [ 9]   5.61 [ 8]
 10. Georgia                      5-1    25.64 [10]  22.08 [10]   3.55 [19]
 11. Georgia Tech                 5-1    25.06 [11]  21.25 [11]   3.81 [18]
 12. California                   4-1    23.16 [12]  18.98 [12]   4.17 [15]
 13. North Carolina               5-1    22.44 [13]  18.13 [14]   4.31 [14]
 14. Ball St                      7-0    22.44 [14]  15.92 [19]   6.51 [ 6]
 15. Michigan St                  6-1    21.07 [15]  16.10 [18]   4.97 [10]
 16. TCU                          6-1    20.75 [16]  17.50 [15]   3.24 [24]
 17. Utah                         7-0    20.33 [17]  13.13 [27]   7.20 [ 4]
 18. Oregon St                    3-3    20.30 [18]  18.24 [13]   2.05 [34]
 19. Boise St                     5-0    19.30 [19]  14.11 [23]   5.19 [ 9]
 20. Brigham Young                6-0    19.04 [20]  15.21 [20]   3.82 [17]

It's interesting to note that the top 10 teams are the same ones, in a somewhat different order, as the teams in the AP top ten, except BYU in in AP's top ten in place of Missouri.

Georgia Tech is the highest ranked team here that isn't in the AP poll. They catch a break here because games with Division I-AA teams, such as their squeaker win over Gardner-Webb, don't count much (this is to reduce the effect of beating up on such teams). In the 727-team power rating, which includes all games in all divisions, the Yellow Jackets are only 31st.

The Success Ratings below show how teams have performed so far this year, without considering score margin:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Texas                        6-0    44.33 [ 1]  34.84 [ 3]   9.49 [ 1]
  2. Alabama                      6-0    31.30 [ 6]  22.49 [ 7]   8.81 [ 2]
  3. Oklahoma St                  6-0    29.90 [ 8]  22.34 [ 8]   7.56 [ 3]
  4. Utah                         7-0    20.33 [17]  13.13 [27]   7.20 [ 4]
  5. Penn State                   7-0    43.21 [ 2]  36.27 [ 1]   6.94 [ 5]
  6. Ball St                      7-0    22.44 [14]  15.92 [19]   6.51 [ 6]
  7. Virginia Tech                5-1    18.45 [21]  12.37 [31]   6.08 [ 7]
  8. Texas Tech                   6-0    27.80 [ 9]  22.19 [ 9]   5.61 [ 8]
  9. Boise St                     5-0    19.30 [19]  14.11 [23]   5.19 [ 9]
 10. Michigan St                  6-1    21.07 [15]  16.10 [18]   4.97 [10]

Note that there are only two teams with losses in the top ten. One surprise is Michigan State, who lost to 4-1 Cal and beat 4-2 Notre Dame and 5-1 Northwestern. Undefeated BYU and Tulsa are in the 2nd 10 as their opposition hasn't proven very sturdy.

Which teams will do the best from here? Probably the ones high in the Strength Ratings:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Penn State                   7-0    43.21 [ 2]  36.27 [ 1]   6.94 [ 5]
  2. Southern Cal                 4-1    40.43 [ 3]  35.54 [ 2]   4.88 [11]
  3. Texas                        6-0    44.33 [ 1]  34.84 [ 3]   9.49 [ 1]
  4. Oklahoma                     5-1    36.85 [ 4]  32.29 [ 4]   4.55 [12]
  5. Missouri                     5-1    35.19 [ 5]  32.03 [ 5]   3.16 [25]
  6. Florida                      5-1    30.16 [ 7]  26.82 [ 6]   3.33 [23]
  7. Alabama                      6-0    31.30 [ 6]  22.49 [ 7]   8.81 [ 2]
  8. Oklahoma St                  6-0    29.90 [ 8]  22.34 [ 8]   7.56 [ 3]
  9. Texas Tech                   6-0    27.80 [ 9]  22.19 [ 9]   5.61 [ 8]
 10. Georgia                      5-1    25.64 [10]  22.08 [10]   3.55 [19]

There are five Big Twelve teams in the top ten, so expect more big battles and upsets like we saw on Saturday from that conference. The SEC has some big powers too, with Florida, Alabama, and Georgia rating in the top ten, but LSU (59th) and Auburn (62nd) don't look very scary any more.

It's entirely possible that the best teams from those conferences—both of whom play a championship game at the end of the season—will knock each other off enough that Penn State and USC could end up playing in the national title game. Both the Nittany Lions and the Trojans have a comparatively easy schedule the rest of the way compared to the gauntlet that any SEC or Big 12 team has to face.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 7: Texas on top

Why not Alabama? That's the question I figured to be getting, though it looks like the national polls agree with Texas at the top. The bottom line is that if Texas stays undefeated the next three weeks they had better be ranked #1, as they face Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech after beating previous #1 Oklahoma on neutral ground. The Tide will have to hope for a Longhorn mistake. If Texas finishes the year unscathed, they deserve #1 unanimously. Alabama was idle this week.

#3 Penn State jumped up from #7 due to the rash of losses above them and impressively beating Wisconsin. They leapt over #4 Texas Tech, who needed overtime to beat Nebraska in Lubbock. The Red Raiders started the year #5 in my rankings and have moved up only one spot despite going undefeated and every team above them losing. Soon they'll face some top 25 competition, at which point they'll prove their mettle or fall to a more appropriate ranking.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 7 (10-12-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
6	1.	Texas	6-0	w=Oklahoma45-35
2	2.	Alabama	6-0	[email protected]
7	3.	Penn State	7-0
4	4.	Texas Tech	6-0
20	5.	Oklahoma State	6-0	[email protected]
1	6.	Oklahoma	5-1	L=Texas45-35;wCincy52-26
8	7.	Brigham Young	6-0
9	8.	Southern Cal	4-1	[email protected];wOhioSt35-3
10	9.	Georgia	5-1	L Alabama41-30
13	10.	Utah	7-0
11	11.	Boise State	5-0
3	12.	Missouri	5-1	L OklahomaSt28-23
19	13.	Florida	5-1	L OleMiss31-30; wLSU51-21
14	14.	Ohio State	6-1	[email protected]
15	15.	Pittsburgh	4-1	L BowlGr27-17;[email protected]
16	16.	South Florida	5-1	L Pitt26-21;wKansas37-34
17	17.	Kansas	5-1	[email protected]
18	18.	Cincinnati	5-1	[email protected]
23	19.	Ball State	7-0
5	20.	LSU	4-1	[email protected]
22	21.	Tulsa	6-0
24	22.	Virginia Tech	5-1	L=ECar27-22;[email protected]
25	23.	North Carolina	5-1	L VTech20-17
	24.	California	4-1	[email protected];wMichSt38-31
	25.	Michigan State	6-1	[email protected];[email protected]
		dropped out:
21	-	Northwestern	5-1	L MichSt37-20
12	-	Vanderbilt	5-1	[email protected]

Oklahoma State was the other big winner in the Big Twelve sweepstakes, leaping to #5 after upsetting Missouri 28-23. Just behind them is Oklahoma; the Sooners are the only team with an excuseable loss that has defeated another top 25 team. BYU, USC, and Georgia slid up a notch each; at #10 Utah leapt Boise State, whose win over Oregon doesn't carry the weight it did at the time. Utah still has TCU and #7 BYU on the schedule, and as I mentioned last week should probably be ahead of USC using strict accounting.

Missouri is #12 on the way down, meeting #13 Florida on the way up. Missouri has a chance to rebound with a win over #1 Texas next week. I don't think Florida's win over LSU shows their quality more than LSU's deficiencies, which is why the latter fell all the way to #20. Remember, LSU's claim to fame this year is barely edging Auburn. 

The teams from 14 to 18 all stayed put. Ohio State hasn't played a good game all year on offense, and until they do I'm not budging them. Pittsburgh and South Florida were idle. Kansas defeated Colorado but is stuck behind USF, and Cincinnati beat Rutgers but then, who hasn't?

At 7-0, Ball State jumps to #19, moving ahead of #21 Tulsa, who moves up only a spot after struggling with SMU. Idle Virginia Tech is #22, ahead of North Carolina, who staved off Notre Dame's attempt to join the top 25. The much-improved Irish have a pretty easy schedule in the 2nd half of the year and still have a decent chance to be in the rankings before their game with USC.

Michigan State, who previously beat Notre Dame much more easily than the Tar Heels, defeated ex-#21 Northwestern to earn a spot. This also ushered idle California into the top 25, as they beat the Spartans in week 1.

Vanderbilt drops out after taking a hit against Mississippi State. No other team in the top 25 has lost to a team with a losing record, and the Commodores' wins over South Carolina and especially Auburn don't seem impressive any more. With only one loss and several ranked teams on the schedule—starting with Georgia next week—they'll have ample opportunity to fight their way back in.

Who is better: Big 12 or SEC?

There's a big argument going on these days about which major conference is the best. Out of the BCS conferences, it's come down to only two leagues having a legitimate argument. The others played themselves out of contention:

• The ACC faltered early on, with pre-season favorite Clemson falling to Alabama, and Virginia Tech losing to East Carolina
• The Pac-10 was the next bust in week three, losing a slew of games to the Mountain West, punctuated by UCLA's 59-0 loss to BYU
• The Big Ten was dismissed from the discussion early as well, with traditional powers Michigan (lost to Utah, Notre Dame) and Ohio State (35-3 losers to USC) flopping
• The Big East had strong teams in 2006 (West Virginia, Louisville, Rutgers) and 2007 (West Virginia, South Florida, Cincinnati) but no league team is undefeated this year, the Mountaineers having lost twice.

Some of the main arguments for the SEC or Big 12 can be found in this point/counterpoint discussion (which happens to cite my adjusted scoring offense and defense ratings). Some of the arguments for the SEC are:

• The SEC has won more championships recently
• The SEC has fewer bad teams than the Big 12
• The SEC plays good defense, the Big 12 doesn't

For the Big 12, some arguments are:

• The Big 12 is much better at the very top
• The SEC in fact does have some poor teams 
• The SEC schedules easy non-conference games

All of this begs the question, how should two conferences be compared? The ESPN article mentions Jeff Sagarin's ratings, and he (Sagarin) uses a couple of methods to compare conferences: average strength and average strength weighted toward the middle teams. Both are attempts to give top-to-bottom comparisons among conferences which might not have the same number of teams.

The method I use is to create hypothetical matchups between all the teams. Each team in Conference A "plays" each in Conference B and the aggregate records are added up. This way a conference like the Big East can be compared to a 12-team league. I use score-margin-based ratings for the comparisons since in win/loss rating systems games between members of the same conference can change the results, which is not what we want. For the 2007 season using this method the SEC was the #1 conference in college football.

With two conferences who have the same number of teams, it's even easier: just rank the teams in order, add up the ranking positions, and see who has the lower value. Here's a list, built from my Strength power rating (which uses margin of victory) for all 727 teams. Their rank among the 24 teams in the combined SEC/Big 12 is the first value; their rank among all 727 teams follows, and their hypothetical "record" against all 12 teams from the opposing conference is last. Big 12 teams are in red, SEC teams in blue.

#     rnk Team                        rec   Strength "record"
1.      2 Oklahoma                    5-0    81.17     12-0
2.      4 Texas                       5-0    79.11     12-0
3.      5 Missouri                    5-0    78.95     12-0
4.      6 Florida                     4-1    71.58      9-3
5.      8 Texas Tech                  5-0    67.50     11-1
6.     10 Alabama                     6-0    66.90      8-4
7.     13 Oklahoma St                 5-0    65.76     10-2
8.     14 Georgia                     4-1    65.11      7-5
9.     25 Kentucky                    4-1    61.49      7-5
10.    27 Kansas                      4-1    60.96      8-4
11.    31 Vanderbilt                  5-0    59.01      6-6
12.    37 LSU                         4-0    57.11      6-6
13.    39 Nebraska                    3-2    56.90      6-6
14.    42 Mississippi                 3-3    55.55      5-7
15.    43 South Carolina              4-2    55.23      5-7
16.    49 Auburn                      4-2    53.82      5-7
17.    51 Kansas St                   3-2    52.12      3-9
18.    52 Iowa St                     2-3    51.72      3-9
19.    61 Tennessee                   2-3    50.33      3-9
20.    64 Baylor                      2-3    48.48      2-10
21.    70 Colorado                    3-2    47.62      2-10
22.    93 Mississippi St              1-4    42.52      1-11
23.    95 Texas A&M                   2-3    41.22      1-11
24.   135 Arkansas                    2-3    34.29      0-12

Totals:
140   430  Big 12                           731.51     82-62
160   546  SEC                              672.94     62-82

Using these numbers the Big 12 comes out slightly ahead top-to-bottom. Of course the results are completely dependent on the rankings you use; using Sagarin's ranking the result might be closer, or different. Using Sagarin's Predictor would probably yield fairly similar results (but note that Predictor still uses some weight from last season).

Adding up the simple rankings (1-24) gives the Big 12 140 points, 20 better than the SEC's 160. Though each conference has six teams in the top half, the Big 12 currently has the three best teams. It's early in the season so this may change as more games are played.

Adding up the rankings within the entire college football world puts more weight on the poor teams. Arkansas causes a lot of pain for the SEC here, as they are 40 slots below even Texas A&M. The Big 12 wins this one 430 to 546 (average ranking 36th to SEC's 46th). Take Arkansas out of the picture and the two leagues are roughly tied. But the point of this exercise is that every team from the conference is included, no excuses for bad members.

The third comparison gives a lot of weight to the upper and lower teams by adding the Strength power rating for each team. The Big 12 wins here 731.5 to 672.9. According to this measure, the average Big 12 team should beat the average SEC team by 4.88 points.

And the last comparison is the head-to-head hypothetical figures. With the Big 12 having the top three teams, it's easy to see where this is leading. The Big 12 wins round robin competition, 82 to 62,

So far, thanks to their five undefeated teams ranking so high in margin-of-victory style power ratings, the Big 12 looks like the conference to beat. The season isn't even half way over yet, and there are more inter-conference matchups here and there. Plus, even intra-conference matchups will move the teams around in the overall rankings, which will change the hypothetical win-loss values. So really we don't know which conference is the best. For now the Big 12 looks hard to beat, even if Sagarin actually has them ranked third right now!

The Mountain West is another interesting conference, and I may look at all the BCS conferences with them in the mix as well, once we get a little further into the season.

Week 7 preview: Five big games; Oklahoma-Texas tops list

The SEC has been battling it out for a few weeks, now it's the Big 12's turn to start knocking each other out of the top 10. Two key Big 12 matchups are front and center this week. A key Big Ten battle, but not the one you're thinking of, makes my must-see list. Yet another battle of SEC titans. And last but not least...Notre Dame?

Here are the my five big games of the week, my thoughts, the Vegas odds, and analysis via the Strength Power Rating, Yardage Analysis, and Game-Performance Comparison methods.

Game of the Week: #1 Oklahoma (5-0) vs. #6 Texas (5-0): This battle is more important now than it has been in several seasons, with implications for the Big 12 race, the national title race, and the Heisman race. I have to go with the Sooners, who have faced two strong teams (Cincinnati and TCU) already.
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 6.5
Strength Power Rating: Oklahoma 34, Texas 32
Yardage Analysis: Oklahoma 41, Texas 28
Game-Performance Comparison: Oklahoma 60% chance to win
My Guess: Oklahoma 34, Texas 27

The Other Big 12 Top 25 Matchup: #3 Missouri (5-0) vs. #20 Oklahoma State (5-0): This game could knock Missouri off their high horse and launch Oklahoma State into the national title discussion. Or remove the Cowboys from top 25. Missouri's at home and is on a roll.
Vegas Line: Missouri by 14
Strength Power Rating: Missouri 51, Oklahoma State 35
Yardage Analysis: Missouri 56, Oklahoma State 34
Game-Performance Comparison: Missouri 76% chance to win
My Guess: Missouri 45, Oklahoma State 31

SEC Game of the Week: #5 LSU (4-0) at #19 Florida (4-1): The Gators have to win or they become also-rans in conference play. LSU may be paper Tigers according to the power ratings. Florida should win this one handily.
Vegas Line: Florida by 6
Strength Power Rating: Florida 33, LSU 16
Yardage Analysis: Florida 27, LSU 21
Game-Performance Comparison: Florida 90% chance to win
My Guess: Florida 24, LSU 6

Big Ten Game of the Week: Michigan State (5-1) at #21 Northwestern (5-0): While Penn State vs. Wisconsin is getting all the attention, I submit that this is the more important game, as both the participants are undefeated in conference play. The Spartans can jump into the SportsRatings top 25 with a win, or the Wildcats can show that they're for real. My first guess is that Michigan State is the better team, but Northwestern is at home, had a week off to prepare, and Javon Ringer might finally be getting a bit tired from all those carries (and from running an extra 50 yards after each carry during practice). The Wildcats' luck streak will continue.
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 1
Strength Power Rating: Michigan State 16, Northwestern 15
Yardage Analysis: Northwestern 28, Michigan State 19
Game-Performance Comparison: 50% chance for either team
My Guess: Northwestern 17, Michigan State 15

Wildcard Top 25 game: Notre Dame (4-1) at #25 North Carolina (4-1): There have already been stories about Notre Dame not being in the AP top 25 despite being 4-1. When you look at who they've played, and how they did last season, it's clear they don't belong. But by beating the Tar Heels on the road they can change that. Despite the loss of their starting quarterback, North Carolina showed mental toughness in beating Miami on the road after the heartbreaking Virginia Tech loss; then they showed physical toughness in clobbering Connecticut. By rights this should be another rout, but the Irish will keep it fairly close. The yardage analysis results look pretty good to me.
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 8 1/2
Strength Power Rating: North Carolina 29, Notre Dame 18
Yardage Analysis: North Carolina 28, Notre Dame 17
Game-Performance Comparison: North Carolina 72% chance to win
My Guess: North Carolina 28, Notre Dame 17

Heisman Top 25 - week 6: Big 12 QB showdowns to determine race?

Chase Daniel has a commanding lead on top of the SportsRatings Heisman Top 25 this week, but slipping into #2 behind him is Big 12 brethren Sam Bradford. And that's not all; working his way up to #8 is none other than Texas' Colt McCoy, and rounding out the top 10 is a fourth Big Twelve quarterback, Texas Tech's Graham Harrell. So it's no surprise that as the Big 12 race heats up, so do the consequences for the top Heisman candidates.

The Missouri Tigers crushed Nebraska in Lincoln and Chase Daniel led the way. He now has a spectacular 15-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and a proven ability to run the ball if needed. Helping his cause is the fact that Missouri probably has the easiest path of any of the top Big 12 teams. In short, there's nothing stopping Daniel at this moment from his clear path to the Heisman.

Sam Bradford remains a far distant second; as a sophomore, he loses any "tiebreaker" with Daniel. Bradford also has to overcome the notion that Daniel is responsible for Missouri's new-found success while Bradford, while valuable, is another in a Bob Stoops tradition (Heupel, Hybl, White) of productive QBs. The two teams won't meet unless it's in the conference championship game.

Colt McCoy didn't have his best game against Colorado but he's the hot item right now, and he powers up from #12 to #8. His great play of the first several weeks is finally getting noticed, and the fact that he's the team's leading rusher is becoming common knowledge. This weekend is Big Opportunity #1—the game against Oklahoma—and the following week is Big Opportunity #2, a matchup against Daniel's Tigers. These opportunities come with risks. Texas has the toughest schedule of any of the top teams in the conference, and any losses hurt the quarterback's chances quite a bit. Only if Texas wins most of the big games does McCoy continue to advance this rapidly.

#10 Graham Harrell was on the verge of dropping out of the top ten when he responded with his best game of the season: seven touchdowns (six passing, one rushing) and 454 yards on 75% completions against the Red Raiders' toughest competition so far. After many had written Harrell off since he didn't have any explosive games against the Raiders' weakest foes, he's now back on the radar and he needs to strike while the iron is hot. Tech's stronger defense and improved—but still not great—running game will help Harrell because the more the team wins, the greater his chances. He's still dogged by the "system quarterback" rap though.

1. (1) Chase Daniel, Missouri
    26-45  58%  359yd  3TD 1int; 9rsh 46yd 5.1av 0TD 0fmb (=ILL 52-42)
    16-17  94%  245yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (SEMoSt 52-3)
    23-28  82%  405yd  4TD 0int; 1rsh 12yd 12 av 0TD 0fmb (Nev 69-17)
    36-43  84%  439yd  2TD 0int; 4rsh 16yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (Buff. 42-21)
    18-23  78%  253yd  3TD 0int; 1rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (@Neb 52-17)
   119-156 76% 1739yd 15TD 1int;15rsh 74yd 4.9av 0TD 0fmb
2. (3) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
    17-22  77%  183yd  2TD 0int; 0rsh   0yd  0av 0TD 0fmb (Chatt 57-2)
    29-38  76%  395yd  5TD 2int; 3rsh   3yd  1av 0TD 0fmb (Cincy 52-26)
    18-21  86%  304yd  5TD 0int; 1rsh   1yd  1av 1TD 0fmb (@Wash 55-14)
    19-34  56%  411yd  4TD 0int; 4rsh -31yd -8av 0TD 0fmb (TCU 35-10)
    23-31  74%  372yd  2TD 1int; 2rsh   4yd  2av 1TD 0fmb (@Baylor49-17)
   106-146 73% 1665yd 18TD 3int;10rsh -23yd -2av 2TD 0fmb
3. (2) Tim Tebow, Florida
    9-14  64%  137yd 1TD 0int;  9rsh  37yd 4.1av 0TD 0fmb (Hawaii 56-10)
   21-35  60%  256yd 2TD 0int; 13rsh  55yd 4.2av 0TD 0fmb (Miami 26-3)
    8-15  53%   96yd 2TD 0int; 12rsh  26yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (@Tenn 30-6)
   24-38  63%  319yd 1TD 0int; 15rsh   7yd 0.5av 2TD 1fmb (L Miss31-30)
   17-26  65%  217yd 2TD 1int; 12rsh  32yd 2.7av 0TD 0fmb (@Ark 38-7)
   79-128 62% 1025yd 8TD 1int; 61rsh 157yd 2.6av 2TD 1fmb
   
4. (5) Mark Sanchez, USC
   26-35  74%  338yd  3TD 1int; 1rsh   6yd 6.0av 0TD 0fmb (@VA 52-7)
   17-28  61%  172yd  4TD 1int; 2rsh -10yd -10av 0TD 0fmb (OSU 35-3)
   18-29  62%  227yd  3TD 1int; 4rsh   7yd 1.8av 0TD 0fmb ([email protected])
   19-28  68%  332yd  3TD 0int; 4rsh  -4yd  -1av 0TD 1fmb (Ore 44-10)
   80-120 67% 1069yd 13TD 3int;11rsh  -1yd -.1av 0TD 1fmb
5. (4) Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - idle this week
    8rsh  59yd 7.4av  3TD 0fmb; 2rec  53yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Ga.S 45-21)
   18rsh 168yd 9.3av  3TD 0fmb; 3rec  30yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (C Mich 56-17)
   20rsh  79yd 4.0av  1TD 0fmb; 2rec  13yd 0TD;32 rtYd (@SCaro 14-7)
   23rsh 149yd 6.5av  2TD 0fmb; 0rec   0yd 0TD;-2 rtYd (@ASU 27-10)
    9rsh  34yd 3.8av  1TD 0fmb; 3rec  14yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (L Ala41-30)
   78rsh 489yd 6.3av 10TD 0fmb;10rec 110yd 0TD;30 rtYd
6. (9) Max Hall, BYU
    34-41  83%  486yd  2TD 0int; 3rsh  4yd 0.8av 1TD 2fmb (UNI 41-17)
    30-41  73%  338yd  3TD 1int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (@Wash 28-27)
    27-35  77%  271yd  7TD 1int; 3rsh 12yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (UCLA 59-0)
    16-27  59%  189yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (Wy 44-0)
    23-37  62%  303yd  2TD 2int; 4rsh  1yd 0.3av 0TD 0fmb (@UtahSt34-14)
   130-181 72% 1587yd 17TD 4int;10rsh 17yd 1.7av 1TD 2fmb
7. (6) Chris Wells, Ohio State: 22rsh 168yd 7.6av 1TD 0fmb; 1rec 0yd 0TD (@Wisc 20-17)
   season: 49rsh 395yd 7.9av 2TD 2fmb; 4rec 10yd 0TD
   
8. (12) Colt McCoy, Texas: 23-30 77% 262yd 2TD 2int;11 rsh 39yd 3.5av 0TD (@Colo 38-14)
   season: 103-130 79% 1280yd 16TD 3int; 45rsh 317yd 7.0av 4TD 0fmb
9. (7) Pat White, WVA: 12-17 71% 137yd 2TD 0int; 11rsh 59yd 5.4av 0TD 0fmb (Marsh 27-3)
   season: 75-103 73% 590yd 9TD 1int; 70rsh 428yd 6.1av 2TD 1fmb
10. (10) G. Harrell, T. Tech: 38-51 75% 454yd 6TD 0int; 1rsh 1yd 1.0av 1TD 0fmb (@KSt58-28)
    season: 158-237 67% 2027yd 18TD 3int; 9rsh -5yd -.6av 2TD 0fmb
11. (11) Javon Ringer, MichSt: 212rsh 988yd 4.7av 12TD 2fmb; 7rec 60yd 0TD;224 rtYd
12. (8) Jeremy Maclin, MO: 5 rec 89yd 1TD; 3rsh 15yd 5.0av 0TD 0fmb; 56rtYd 0TD (@Neb52-17)
    season: 31rec 480yd 5TD 1fmb; 11rsh 58yd 5.3av 1TD; 396rtYd 1TD
13. (13) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech: 38rec 564yd 8TD; 1rsh 3yd 3.0av 0TD 0fmb
14. (14) Charles Scott, LSU: 71rsh 535yd 7.5av 6TD 0fmb; 4rec 37yd 0TD
15. (23) Donald Brown, UConn: 179rsh 1067yd 6.0av 12TD 1fmb; 9rec 50yd 0TD
16. (16) Juice Williams, Illinois: 81-142 57% 1215yd 11TD 6int; 83rsh 404yd 4.9ave 4TD 1fmb 
17. (15) P.J. Hill, Wisconsin: 108rsh 512yds 4.7av 5TD 1fmb; 3rec 38yd 0TD
18. (19) Daryll Clark, Penn St: 80-124 65% 1116yd 9TD 1int;32rsh 133yd 4.2av 4TD 1fmb
19. (17) Matt Stafford, Georgia: 86-144 60% 1193yd 7TD 1int; 22rsh 33yd 1.5av 0TD 0fmb
20. (18) Jahvid Best, Cal: 59rsh 421yd 7.1av 4TD 1fmb; 14rec 157yd 0TD; 284 rtYd
21. (25) David Johnson, Tulsa: 100-143 70% 1682yd 23TD 5int;24rsh 43yd 1.8av 1TD 0fmb
22. (22) James Laurinaitis, Ohio State: 57 tackles (24 solo, 1 for loss); 1 INT
23. (21) Rey Maualuga, USC: 19 tackles (9 solo); 1 INT 1 TD
24. (24) Louie Sakoda, Utah: 13 of 15 FGs; 22 of 23 PATs; 20 punts, 44.9av; 1-1 pass 9yd
25. (20) Percy Harvin, Florida: 27rsh 177yd 6.6av 2TD 1fmb; 19rec 284yd 3TD

Others: Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State; Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State; MiQuale Lewis, Ball State; Nate Davis, Ball State; Glen Coffee, Alabama.

The rest of the top ten is treading water or losing ground. #3 Tim Tebow slips a spot, as it's becoming clear that he's not having the same kind of year as he did last season, and that Florida's offense isn't the same either. He's still Superman, and this week's game at LSU is one of several chances to turn his fortunes around, but he'd better start soon. #4 Mark Sanchez had a great game in USC's blowout of Oregon, and there should be much more winning to come in the piss-poor Pac-10, but he advances a spot mainly because Knowshon Moreno is fading in people's minds after his poor performance against Alabama. Moreno was idle this week and needs to turn it up or have no chance to finish in the top five.

BYU's Max Hall kept his team undefeated but his last two games have been less than stellar. He leaps from #9 to #6, which looks like a power move but is mostly the result of players ahead of him falling by the wayside. Players such as #7 Beanie Wells, #9 Pat White, and #12 Jeremy Maclin. Though Wells thinks he still has a shot at the Heisman and had his best game of the year, rushing for 168 yards against Wisconsin, he could do that the rest of the season and would not finish in the top five. With six games left he'd need to average 200 yards/game to get an invite to New York, and even more than that to have any shot at winning. White led his team to another uninspiring win, but his stats aren't huge and the two losses still hurt him; the Big East's decline has left him with few opportunities to get back in even if he were having big games. Maclin suffers from the worst problem of all: his teammate is as far out in front of the race as Secretariat. He falls from 8th to 12th.

Juggernaut Javon Ringer was stopped by Iowa last week; instead of 200 yards, he failed to get to 100, stalling him at #11. #13 Michael Crabtree didn't have nearly as amazing of a game as his QB did last week. #14 Charles Scott was idle and holds at that spot, while Donald Brown of Connecticut leaps to #15 despite his team being unceremoniously knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten. Losing doesn't hurt running backs nearly as much as quarterbacks, especially when you're the nation's leading rusher, but if UConn had been 6-0 Brown would be passing Scott for sure. As it is he'll need to maintain his national lead, while Scott's chances are more linked to LSU winning.

Three more Big Ten stars follow. Juice Williams' stats aren't all that great, but he had a fantastic game against Michigan both running and passing so he doesn't drop from #16; Wisconsin's P.J. Hill does fall 2 spots to #17 after having a 2nd poor game in a row, in another loss. Penn State's Daryll Clark inches up a spot to #18; if Penn State runs the table he'll big in the top ten at least.

Matt Stafford was idle and Cal's Jahvid Best missed a game due to injury, causing both of their meager hopes to slide that much more. David Johnson moves up #21 as the undefeated Tulsa QB remained #1 in passing efficiency. Ohio State's James Laurinaitis is back as the top defensive player on the list, while Rey Maualuga's injury kept him out of the Oregon game. Laurinaitis has 57 tackles to Maualuga's 19. Louie Sakoda kicked the winning last-second field goal for Utah last week.

#25 Percy Harvin's time in the top 25 is coming to an end soon, no doubt. Some of the players that might replace him include QB Zac Robinson or receiver Dez Bryant of undefeated Oklahoma State; QB Nate Davis or running back MiQuale Lewis of undefeated Ball State; or maybe Glen Coffee of Alabama, yet another undefeated team lacking a representative in the rankings.