The Heisman race is a lot like batting in baseball; you have three strikes before you're out. A lot of Heisman watchers tend to treat a miss-step as a pop-fly the puts you out of the race, but usually you get a few freebies that can be forgiven. A really bad game, or for quarterbacks, a loss, is one strike; both Chase Daniel and Sam Bradford got one this week. Being a sophomore has been strike against as well. Last year Tim Tebow had four strikes against him and the year was wild enough that he still won! If everyone else has even more strikes, suddenly you're up to bat again.
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That's why Chase Daniel remains #1 despite Missouri's loss. He didn't play all that well either, throwing three interceptions. This is a perfect definition of a 'strike.' But later in the year, when everyone else has a strike or two, Daniel's mistake won't be considered worse than theirs. So while his huge lead is a thing of the past, he's still positioned well. Sam Bradford falls as well, but he played very well in his loss, throwing five touchdown passes. His sophomore status may be another strike; it's too early to tell whether Tim Tebow broke that taboo, or just softened it. Speaking of Tebow, Florida's win over LSU stopped his downward slide in the race and all but assured him of a trip to New York if he plays well and Florida keeps winning. His odds of taking the Heisman a 2nd time didn't increase any, as his stats will be much lower than last year's and people don't like to see that.
Colt McCoy jumped from #8 to #4 and is on the verge of taking command of the Heisman race. Most people put him #1 right now, but I do want to see if people forget about him, like the others, if Texas loses to Missouri. A win in that game would give McCoy wins over the top two QBs in the race. He definitely controls his destiny as far as the Heisman is concerned, but then, so did Daniel a week ago.
The #5 spot represents the last player I think will get invited to New York. I think the top four are settled, and right now Max Hall is a tenuous #5. He was already tenuous before BYU's loss on Thursday night, which wasn't considered at the time of these rankings; as his candidacy depended on BYU going undefeated, his chances of winning fall to virtually nil and odds are he doesn't finish in the top 5. Mark Sanchez and Knowshon Moreno have already dropped to less-than-likely New York invitees, even assuming they finish strong.
- (1) Chase Daniel, Missouri
26-45 58% 359yd 3TD 1int; 9rsh 46yd 5.1av 0TD 0fmb (=ILL 52-42)
16-17 94% 245yd 3TD 0int; 0rsh 0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (SEMoSt 52-3)
23-28 82% 405yd 4TD 0int; 1rsh 12yd 12 av 0TD 0fmb (Nev 69-17)
36-43 84% 439yd 2TD 0int; 4rsh 16yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (Buff. 42-21)
18-23 78% 253yd 3TD 0int; 1rsh 0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (@Neb 52-17)
39-52 75% 390yd 1TD 3int; 7rsh 46yd 6.6av 0TD 0fmb (L OKst28-23)
158-208 76% 2055yd 16TD 4int;22rsh 120yd 5.5av 0TD 0fmb - (2) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
17-22 77% 183yd 2TD 0int; 0rsh 0yd 0av 0TD 0fmb (Chatt 57-2)
29-38 76% 395yd 5TD 2int; 3rsh 3yd 1av 0TD 0fmb (Cincy 52-26)
18-21 86% 304yd 5TD 0int; 1rsh 1yd 1av 1TD 0fmb (@Wash 55-14)
19-34 56% 411yd 4TD 0int; 4rsh -31yd -8av 0TD 0fmb (TCU 35-10)
23-31 74% 372yd 2TD 1int; 2rsh 4yd 2av 1TD 0fmb (@Bayl 49-17)
28-39 72% 387yd 5TD 2int; 8rsh -5yd -.6av 0TD 0fmb (L=Tex 45-35)
134-185 72% 2052yd 23TD 5int;18rsh -28yd-1.6av 2TD 0fmb - (3) Tim Tebow, Florida
9-14 64% 137yd 1TD 0int; 9rsh 37yd 4.1av 0TD 0fmb (Haw 56-10)
21-35 60% 256yd 2TD 0int;13rsh 55yd 4.2av 0TD 0fmb (Miami 26-3)
8-15 53% 96yd 2TD 0int;12rsh 26yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (@Tenn 30-6)
24-38 63% 319yd 1TD 0int;15rsh 7yd 0.5av 2TD 1fmb (L Miss31-30)
17-26 65% 217yd 2TD 1int;12rsh 32yd 2.7av 0TD 0fmb (@Ark 38-7)
14-21 67% 210yd 2TD 0int;12rsh 22yd 1.8av 1TD 1fmb (LSU 51-31)
93-149 62% 1235yd 10TD 1int;73rsg 179yd 2.5av 3TD 2fmb
- (8) Colt McCoy, Texas
24-29 83% 222yd 3TD 0int;12rsh 103yd 8.6av 1TD 0fmb (FLAtl 52-10)
20-29 69% 282yd 4TD 1int; 5rsh 8yd 1.6av 0TD 0fmb (@UTEP 42-13)
19-23 83% 329yd 4TD 0int; 8rsh 83yd 10av 1TD 0fmb (Rice 52-10)
17-19 90% 185yd 3TD 0int; 9rsh 84yd 9.3av 2TD 0fmb (Ark 52-10)
23-30 77% 262yd 2TD 2int;11rsh 39yd 3.5av 0TD 0fmb (@Colo 38-14)
28-35 80% 277yd 1TD 0int;14rsh 31yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (=OK 45-35)
131-165 79% 1557yd 17TD 3int;59rsh 348yd 5.9av 4TD 0fmb - (6) Max Hall, BYU
34-41 83% 486yd 2TD 0int; 3rsh 4yd 0.8av 1TD 2fmb (UNI 41-17)
30-41 73% 338yd 3TD 1int; 0rsh 0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (@Wash 28-27)
27-35 77% 271yd 7TD 1int; 3rsh 12yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (UCLA 59-0)
16-27 59% 189yd 3TD 0int; 0rsh 0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (Wy 44-0)
23-37 62% 303yd 2TD 2int; 4rsh 1yd 0.3av 0TD 0fmb (@UTst 34-14)
22-34 65% 258yd 3TD 0int; 3rsh 15yd 5.0av 0TD 0fmb (NMex 21-3)
152-215 71% 1845yd 20TD 4int;13rsh 32yd 2.5av 1TD 2fmb - (4) Mark Sanchez, USC
26-35 74% 338yd 3TD 1int; 1rsh 6yd 6.0av 0TD 0fmb (@VA 52-7)
17-28 61% 172yd 4TD 1int; 2rsh -10yd -10av 0TD 0fmb (OSU 35-3)
18-29 62% 227yd 3TD 1int; 4rsh 7yd 1.8av 0TD 0fmb (L@OreSt27-21)
19-28 68% 332yd 3TD 0int; 4rsh -4yd -1av 0TD 1fmb (Ore 44-10)
13-26 50% 179yd 1TD 3int; 5rsh -4yd -.8av 1TD 1fmb (@ASU 28-0)
93-146 64% 1248yd 14TD 6int;16rsh -13yd -.8av 1TD 2fmb - (5) Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
8rsh 59yd 7.4av 3TD 0fmb; 2rec 53yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Ga.S 45-21)
18rsh 168yd 9.3av 3TD 0fmb; 3rec 30yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (C Mich 56-17)
20rsh 79yd 4.0av 1TD 0fmb; 2rec 13yd 0TD;32 rtYd (@SCaro 14-7)
23rsh 149yd 6.5av 2TD 0fmb; 0rec 0yd 0TD;-2 rtYd (@ASU 27-10)
9rsh 34yd 3.8av 1TD 0fmb; 3rec 14yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (L Ala41-30)
27rsh 101yd 3.7av 0TD 0fmb; 1rec 14yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Tenn 25-14)
105rsh 590yd 5.6av 10TD 0fmb;11rec 124yd 0TD;30 rtYd - (11) Javon Ringer, MichSt: 35rsh 124yd 3.5av 2TD 0fmb; 2rec 16yd 0TD (@Nw 37-20)
season: 247rsh 1112yd 4.5av 14TD 2fmb; 9rec 76yd 0TD;224 rtYd - (7) Chris Wells, Ohio State: 22rsh 94yd 4.3av 0TD 0fmb; 2rec 3yd 0TD (Purdue 16-3)
season: 71rsh 479yd 6.7av 2TD 2fmb; 6rec 13yd 0TD - (10) G. Harrell, T. Tech: 20-25 80% 284yd 2TD 0int; 1rsh 1yd 1.0av 1TD (Neb 37-31ot)
season: 178-262 68% 20TD 3int; 10rsh -4yd -0.4av 3TD 0fmb - (9) Pat White, WVA: 75-103 73% 590yd 9TD 1int; 70rsh 428yd 6.1av 2TD 1fmb
- (12) Jeremy Maclin, MO: 39rec 600yd 5TD 1fmb; 13rsh 64yd 4.9av 1TD; 493rtYd 1TD
- (13) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech: 43rec 653yd 10TD; 1rsh 3yd 3.0av 0TD 0fmb
- (18) Daryll Clark, Penn St: 96-149 64% 1360yd 10TD 2int;38rsh 145yd 3.8av 6TD 1fmb
- (15) Donald Brown, UConn: 179rsh 1067yd 6.0av 12TD 1fmb; 9rec 50yd 0TD
- (14) Charles Scott, LSU: 83rsh 577yd 7.0av 6TD 1fmb; 5rec 45yd 0TD
- (16) Juice Williams, Ill: 107-183 58% 1677yd 13TD 7int; 101rsh 445yd 4.4ave 4TD 2fmb
- (17) P.J. Hill, Wisconsin: 123rsh 570yds 4.6av 5TD 1fmb; 3rec 38yd 0TD
- (new) Zac Robinson, OkSt: 81-114 71% 1250yd 12TD 4int;59rsh 192yd 5TD 3fmb
- (20) Jahvid Best, Cal: 59rsh 421yd 7.1av 4TD 1fmb; 14rec 157yd 0TD; 284 rtYd
- (25) Percy Harvin, Florida: 27rsh 177yd 6.6av 2TD 1fmb; 19rec 284yd 3TD
- (22) James Laurinaitis, Ohio State: 67 tackles (29 solo, 1 for loss); 1 INT
- (19) Matt Stafford, Georgia: 111-180 62% 1503yd 8TD 3int; 27rsh 48yd 1.8av 0TD 0fmb
- (new) Dez Bryant, OkSt: 34rec 597yd 9TD 1fmb; 348rtYD 2TD
- (21) David Johnson, Tulsa: 117-173 68% 1963yd 26TD 7int;31rsh 69yd 2.2av 1TD 0fmb
Others: Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State; MiQuale Lewis, Ball State; Nate Davis, Ball State; Glen Coffee, Alabama, John Parker Wilson, Alabama.
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Javon Ringer recovered from his first stumble in the limelight with 124 yards and 2 touchdowns against Northwester; more important, he's still #2 in the nation in rushing and has 14 TDs already. With a few weaker candidates ahead of him he jumps to #8 and could make the top five after this weekend. He's clearly ahead of Chris Wells at this point; the latter doesn't have enough chances to make up the yardage needed to be a consideration. For Ringer the bar was set a bit higher from the start, and he's still very unlikely to win. The two face each other this week.
Texas Tech's Graham Harrell holds at #10 yet again. He avoided getting a 'strike' by leading his team past Nebraska in overtime. His overall stats are looking very good these days, leaving him in position to advance when the Red Raiders start playing tougher teams...which isn't this week: they face Texas A&M next, then Kansas and Texas. He'll be a latecomer to the top five if they win all those. #11 Pat White falls another two spots and it's looking like he won't get a single vote now, after starting the year as one of the leaders. If the Mountaineers win out and he excels he could slip back into the top ten, but they're done with the softish middle part of their schedule. Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree's Heisman runs have stalled, too; they remain on the radar in case they do something spectacular, but both are overshadowed by their QBs.
#14 Daryll Clark still has momentum and a lot of upside potential as he moves from #18 for undefeated Penn State. Watch for him to make a big move if the Lions beat Ohio State in two weeks. His outside chance of winning the trophy depends on Penn State going undefeated. He jumps past two running backs, idle Donald Brown of UConn and LSU's Charles Scott (who had a dismal outing in the Tigers' dismal effort against Florida), as well as two Big Ten contenders, Illinois' Juice Williams and Wisconsin's P.J. Hill. Both of the latter teams lost their third game last week, leaving these players on the edge of irrelevance, especially Hill who had another lackluster game statistically.
Following Oklahoma State's big upset of #1 Missouri, two Cowboy players make their way into the rankings. Zac Robinson is 19th and set to rise as long as they can keep winning, while #24 Dez Bryant as a receiver needs to keep returning punts for touchdowns to even stay remotely on the radar. Robinson could potentially make the top five, but mostly he's setting himself up for a possible run next year. They replace Louis Sakoda, who is still doing very well but is a kicker for gosh's sake, and Rey Maualuga, a linebacker who isn't tackling as many people as expected.
Ohio State's James Laurinaitis hangs on, however, as the token defensive player at #22, while Percy Harvin actually jumps four spots to #25 after being declared dead last week. His touchdowns last week still don't put his stats equal to #20 Jahvid Best's, though, and realistically neither has much chance of making a big move. That is also true of Matt Stafford, who falls from #19 to #23, and Tulsa's David Johnson, who also drops four spots from #21 to #25. Both hang on just due to the possibility that they get back in the limelight, Stafford if Georgia wins big the next few weeks, and Johnson if Tulsa starts looking impressive. He's still the nation's top rated passer (according to the overrated "efficiency" figures).
A third Oklahoma State player, running back Kendall Hunter, along with two Ball State players and two Alabama teammates, are waiting for their breakthrough. All are on undefeated teams and need to do something big to get noticed, though the longer their teams keep the "0" in the "L" column the better.
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