BCS Busters update: As expected, BYU falters on the road

The biggest non-surprise of last week was BYU's upset on the road at the hands of TCU. The Horned Frogs rated higher in power ratings than the Cougars, with the Strength algorith picking a 24-17 win for TCU. But more importantly, a look at BYU's home vs. road performance told everything one needed to know.

BYU opened at home and beat tough Division I-AA opponent Northern Iowa 41-17. They followed that with the closest of road wins, the Jake-Locker-ball-toss-penalty game against Washington. They left with a 28-27 victory, and the Huskies haven't come that close to winning since. 

The Cougars' two signature wins, back-to-back shutouts of UCLA and Wyoming by a combined 103-0, were both achieved at home. When they played a much lesser foe, Utah State, on the road, they won 34-14, then beat New Mexico at home 21-3.

So BYU on the road was a disaster waiting to happen, and if TCU hadn't caught them Utah would have (and still probably will). The magnitude of the blowout—32-7—was a bit surprising, but it underscores how poorly BYU plays away from home. In Provo I'd give them a chance against anybody, but away from home any decent team might upset them.

In any case, BYU falls from the ranks of the BCS Busters, which now consists of just four members:

1. Boise State - The Broncos have by far the easiest path from here to a top twelve finish. Already #13 in both polls used for the BCS, Boise's remaining schedule has no remaining pitfalls now that Fresno State has faltered and look toothless. Regardless, that game is a home game for Boise, and their biggest challenge now might be Nevada or San Jose State on the road. It certainly isn't New Mexico State, Utah State, or Idaho. Remaining pitfalls: None.
2. Utah - The Utes are the only BCS buster with an outside chance to make the championship game, though BYU's loss probably hurt them in that respect. At 8-0, they have just four games left, and winning out will guarantee them at least a BCS bowl game. But two of the four games are pitfalls: TCU and BYU. Luckily, both games are at home, and given BYU's road woes, the Horned Frogs are their biggest worry. The road game against New Mexico can't be overlooked either, leaving San Diego State as their only breather other than next week's bye. Remaining pitfalls: TCU, BYU. 
3. Tulsa - It's hard to believe that Arkansas still counts as a potential pitfall for this team, given its offense. But the Razorbacks surprised Auburn and almost beat Kentucky, and a team that struggles on the road against SMU surely has to worry about Arkansas. Another disturbing development is that coach Todd Graham is already complaining that the BCS might overlook an undefeated Tulsa team. Note to coach—that's the sort of chicken-counting that gets a team upset the next week. Tulsa has finally made the USA and Harris top 25 and is looking a lot better in the power ratings these days, so they should be able to pull it off but they have a long way to go, six more games counting the C-USA title game. Remaining pitfalls: @Arkansas, C-USA championship.
4. Ball State - The Cardinals were idle this week and didn't move up much in the polls. Like Tulsa, their chance of making a BCS game depends on other teams losing, as four non-BCS teams aren't going to make it. And 24-7 wins over Western Kentucky won't sway the voters, who must be swayed to make up for the computers which will probably have them outside the top 12 should they go undefeated. And there's that matter too, going undefeated: having won the only game (Indiana) that I expected them to lose to this year, the Cardinals should go 13-0. But their last two games are tough ones at Central Michigan then at home vs. Western Michigan. The East division isn't looking strong enough to challenge them in the MAC title game. Remaining pitfalls: @Central Michigan, Western Michigan.

In terms of reaching national championship game, here's how I see the pecking order:

• Any undefeated team from the Big 12 or SEC (remaining: Texas, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Alabama). Only two possible by end of season.
• Any undefeated team from the other BCS conferences (remaining: Penn State)
• Any 1-loss team conference winner from the Big 12 or SEC (the above plus Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, and LSU)
• Utah, if undefeated
• Any remaining 1-loss team from the BCS conferences (USC highest among those)
• Boise State, if undefeated
• Any 2-loss conference winner from the Big 12 or SEC
• Any 1-loss Mountain West team (TCU first, then Utah or BYU)
• Any remaining 2-loss team from the BCS conferences (Oklahoma priority over TCU though)
• Tulsa or Ball State, if undefeated

So as you can see, unless every BCS team has 3 losses, Tulsa and Ball State don't have the schedule to make it to the big game. Boise State has a very small chance due to their win over Oregon, but it would require another year like last year's, and that's unlikely to happen. Utah has a good case if they go undefeated, but beating an undefeated BYU in the season finále would have given them more hope. As it stands, USC is probably more likely to get into the national championship game than Utah if both win out.

Comments

[Joe the plumber]

that's great, just watch Penn State get screwed AGAIN out of a national title with an undefeated team, for about the 100th time.