SportsRatings: College Football

Power ratings for week 5

Fourth last week, Oklahoma takes over the top spot in the Overall (combined) power rating. Penn State remains #2, while Texas jumps from sixth to third. Missouri, though idle this week, jumps from 25th to 4th. What happened? Well the numbers just reached a "tipping point" where the computer decided the Tigers were really good. All of Missouri's opponents moved up sharply, though two of them lost.

Speaking of losing, USC fell to #7 from #3, and Florida from #5 to #6. The latter's fall was cushioned by Mississippi jumping up to #17. Georgia took the biggest fall of the three prominent losers, dropping from the #1 spot to #9, while Alabama rose to #5 from #7 for the win. Another loser, TCU, moved up a spot as losing to Oklahoma by 25 ultimately didn't hurt their rating.

Overall Power Rating (combined Strength and Success) through games of September 28, 2008.

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Oklahoma                     4-0    43.54 [ 1]  37.78 [ 1]   5.75 [ 4]
  2. Penn State                   5-0    40.22 [ 2]  35.62 [ 2]   4.59 [ 8]
  3. Texas                        4-0    38.26 [ 3]  34.45 [ 3]   3.81 [16]
  4. Missouri                     4-0    36.35 [ 4]  32.49 [ 4]   3.86 [14]
  5. Alabama                      5-0    31.71 [ 5]  23.97 [ 7]   7.74 [ 1]
  6. Florida                      3-1    29.41 [ 6]  28.16 [ 5]   1.24 [48]
  7. Southern Cal                 2-1    27.62 [ 7]  25.50 [ 6]   2.11 [31]
  8. Vanderbilt                   4-0    26.78 [ 8]  21.21 [11]   5.57 [ 5]
  9. Georgia                      4-1    25.52 [ 9]  22.75 [ 9]   2.77 [23]
 10. TCU                          4-1    25.41 [10]  23.03 [ 8]   2.37 [26]
 11. Brigham Young                4-0    25.29 [11]  22.71 [10]   2.58 [25]
 12. Texas Tech                   4-0    23.72 [12]  20.61 [12]   3.10 [17]
 13. Kentucky                     4-0    22.97 [13]  18.85 [17]   4.12 [12]
 14. Tulsa                        4-0    21.62 [14]  18.90 [16]   2.71 [24]
 15. Georgia Tech                 3-1    21.21 [15]  19.72 [15]   1.49 [40]
 16. Ball St                      5-0    21.12 [16]  15.66 [24]   5.46 [ 6]
 17. Mississippi                  3-2    21.08 [17]  19.74 [14]   1.33 [44]
 18. North Carolina               3-1    21.05 [18]  19.77 [13]   1.28 [46]
 19. California                   3-1    21.01 [19]  18.02 [18]   2.98 [18]
 20. Virginia Tech                4-1    20.96 [20]  17.13 [19]   3.82 [15]
 21. Utah                         5-0    20.34 [21]  13.38 [30]   6.95 [ 2]
 22. Wake Forest                  3-1    18.67 [22]  15.85 [23]   2.82 [22]
 23. Nebraska                     3-1    18.38 [23]  16.12 [21]   2.25 [27]
 24. Oklahoma St                  4-0    17.92 [24]  14.01 [28]   3.91 [13]
 25. Boise St                     3-0    17.73 [25]  13.15 [31]   4.58 [ 9]

Other teams of note: Georgia Tech is at #15, while undefeated Ball State sits at #16. The Yellow Jackets aren't getting a lot of attention but could compete for the wide-open ACC title along with #18 North Carolina, #20 Virginia Tech, and #22 Wake Forest. The Cardinals have a chance to go undefeated this year with an easy schedule, and these results suggest they have the team to do it and are deserving of a top 25 ranking.

Success Ratings (win/loss; score margin not considered) through games of September 28, 2008.

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Alabama                      5-0    31.71 [ 5]  23.97 [ 7]   7.74 [ 1]
  2. Utah                         5-0    20.34 [21]  13.38 [30]   6.95 [ 2]
  3. Northwestern                 5-0    15.68 [30]   9.84 [39]   5.83 [ 3]
  4. Oklahoma                     4-0    43.54 [ 1]  37.78 [ 1]   5.75 [ 4]
  5. Vanderbilt                   4-0    26.78 [ 8]  21.21 [11]   5.57 [ 5]
  6. Ball St                      5-0    21.12 [16]  15.66 [24]   5.46 [ 6]
  7. South Florida                5-0    13.00 [37]   7.79 [45]   5.20 [ 7]
  8. Penn State                   5-0    40.22 [ 2]  35.62 [ 2]   4.59 [ 8]
  9. Boise St                     3-0    17.73 [25]  13.15 [31]   4.58 [ 9]
 10. Connecticut                  5-0     8.96 [47]   4.82 [55]   4.14 [10]

Which team is having the best season against the strongest competition so far? That would be Alabama, which is no surprise after their win over Georgia. The team at #3 is a bit of a surprise: Northwestern is 5-0 with wins over Iowa and Duke. The Duke win may decline in value as the season progresses but right now no one else has a win over the Blue Devils. Ball State's pre-season schedule ranks favorably at the moment but their strength of schedule will have a hard time keeping up with any undefeated BCS team's.

Strength (score-based) Ratings through games of September 28, 2008.

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Oklahoma                     4-0    43.54 [ 1]  37.78 [ 1]   5.75 [ 4]
  2. Penn State                   5-0    40.22 [ 2]  35.62 [ 2]   4.59 [ 8]
  3. Texas                        4-0    38.26 [ 3]  34.45 [ 3]   3.81 [16]
  4. Missouri                     4-0    36.35 [ 4]  32.49 [ 4]   3.86 [14]
  5. Florida                      3-1    29.41 [ 6]  28.16 [ 5]   1.24 [48]
  6. Southern Cal                 2-1    27.62 [ 7]  25.50 [ 6]   2.11 [31]
  7. Alabama                      5-0    31.71 [ 5]  23.97 [ 7]   7.74 [ 1]
  8. TCU                          4-1    25.41 [10]  23.03 [ 8]   2.37 [26]
  9. Georgia                      4-1    25.52 [ 9]  22.75 [ 9]   2.77 [23]
 10. Brigham Young                4-0    25.29 [11]  22.71 [10]   2.58 [25]

The Strength component is the best judge for which teams will do well in the future. As you can see it mirrors the overall ratings pretty closely, as the Success numbers haven't built up enough evidence to give teams high scores for their accomplishments yet. Florida and USC still rate high despite their close losses, and TCU and Georgia are top ten as well. BYU's schedule only gives them a Success ranking of 25th, but their back-to-back monster shutouts put them 10th in Strength.

Scoring Offense ratings through games of September 28, 2008.

  #  Team                         rec   Margin  Off    Def
  1. Missouri                     4-0   32.49  54.41  21.91 [47th]
  2. Oklahoma                     4-0   37.78  54.19  16.41 [22]
  3. Penn State                   5-0   35.62  48.03  12.40 [11]
  4. Oregon                       4-1   15.51  45.54  30.03 [91]
  5. Rice                         3-2   11.64  44.19  32.55 [103]
  6. California                   3-1   18.02  43.84  25.81 [71]
  7. Tulsa                        4-0   18.90  43.38  24.47 [66]
  8. Mississippi                  3-2   19.74  42.99  23.24 [54]
  9. Oklahoma St                  4-0   14.01  42.58  28.57 [84]
 10. Nebraska                     3-1   16.12  42.44  26.31 [75]

The offensive top 10, adjusted for opposition, has few surprises. Many of the highest-ranking offenses are paired with very poor defenses: Oregon's defense ranks 91st while Rice, which put up 77 last week on North Texas, ranks an even lower 103rd defensively. #6 offense California is 71st, #7 Tulsa is 66th, Mississippi is 54th, Oklahoma State 84th, and Nebraska 75th. Only the top three offensive teams have decent defenses, with Oklahoma ranked 22nd and Penn State 11th. Many of these teams run a spread-type offense, which could be tiring out their defense by putting them on the field too long.

Scoring Defense ratings through games of September 28, 2008.

  #  Team                         rec   Margin  Off    Def
  1. TCU                          4-1   23.03  26.72   3.69
  2. Texas                        4-0   34.45  41.31   6.85
  3. Wake Forest                  3-1   15.85  24.71   8.86
  4. Florida                      3-1   28.16  37.16   8.99
  5. Kentucky                     4-0   18.85  28.27   9.42
  6. Boston College               3-1    9.15  19.06   9.90
  7. Vanderbilt                   4-0   21.21  31.59  10.37
  8. Virginia Tech                4-1   17.13  28.15  11.01
  9. South Carolina               3-2   10.88  22.63  11.74
 10. West Virginia                2-2    1.79  13.59  11.79

The best defenses are somewhat surprising. TCU ranks #1 after giving up 35 to Oklahoma—the Sooners have scored 50+ on everyone else. And who would have thought Florida would be ranked better on defense than offense? The real shocker, though, is West Virginia, who is an alarming #117 on offense but is 10th in defense. Going into the season I would have thought that those numbers would be reversed.

And for the answer to the question, is Notre Dame's comeback for real? we look at their adjusted scoring offense and defense. They rank 55th on offense and 51st on defense so far, for an overall Strength ranking of #52. Better than average for Division I-A and much improved from last year, but not a great team by any means. But it should be enough to give them several more wins against their easy remaining schedule to get to a bowl game.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 5

Here we go again. Major upsets shook up the rankings this week, though the AP and coaches polls took a bigger hit, with their #1, #3, and #4 teams losing. We were getting some flack for not having USC #1, but are somewhat vindicated with the Trojan's loss, and for already placing Oklahoma #1 the last two weeks. Those kudos are offset by our pre-season #1 and #2 teams (Ohio State and Florida) having suffered embarrasing losses this year.

So here's what happened. Oklahoma stays #1 after drubbing a good TCU team 35-10. Then it gets a bit more complicated. Previous #2 Florida and #3 Southern Cal lost, but ex-#4 South Florida has had some really bad games and doesn't deserve to be #2, nor does Texas Tech, and Missouri was idle. It makes sense to have an SEC team in the top two along with a Big Twelve team, so Alabama, who led Georgia 31-0 at the half on the road, and clobbered Clemson 34-10 at a neutral site, leaps from #11 all the way to #2. South Florida follows at #3 as they do have the Kansas win under their belt, and Missouri jumps Texas Tech to take the #4 spot. The Tigers have been much more consistent than the Red Raiders.

LSU didn't look great Saturday, but they have a key road win over Auburn and move up two spots to #6. Texas did look great Saturday and jumps to #7, while Penn State got the job done against Illinois and moves to #8.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 5 (9-28-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Oklahoma	4-0	wCincinnati52-26
11	2.	Alabama	5-0	w@GA41-30;w=Clem34-10
4	3.	South Florida	5-0	wKansas37-34
6	4.	Missouri	4-0
5	5.	Texas Tech	4-0
8	6.	LSU	4-0	w@Auburn26-21
9	7.	Texas	4-0
10	8.	Penn State	5-0
12	9.	Brigham Young	4-0
3	10.	Southern Cal	2-1	L@OreSt27-21;wOSU35-3
13	11.	Kansas	3-1	L@USF37-34
7	12.	Georgia	4-1	L Alabama41-30
16	13.	Boise State	3-0	w@Oregon37-32
14	14.	Ohio State	4-1	L@USC35-3
15	15.	Auburn	4-1	L LSU26-21
17	16.	Vanderbilt	4-0
18	17.	Utah	5-0	wUNLV42-21
19	18.	Connecticut	5-0
22	19.	Oregon	4-1	L BoiseSt37-32
20	20.	Cincinnati	3-1	L@Oklahoma52-26
2	21.	Florida	3-1	L Mississippi31-30
	22.	Kentucky	4-0
	23.	Oklahoma State	4-0
	24.	Northwestern	5-0
	25t	Tulsa	4-0
	25t	Ball State	5-0
		out:
25	-	Wake Forest	3-1	L Navy24-17
23	-	Colorado	3-1	L@FSU39-21
21	-	Clemson	3-2	L=Ala 34-10;L Mary20-17
24	-	UNLV	3-2	L@Utah42-21;L Nev49-27

The teams that lost create some trouble. Georgia came back to make the game semi-respectable and drops from 7 to 12. USC probably deserved to fall further, but they have one of the best wins of the year over #14 Ohio State. The Trojans' loss essentially freezes the Buckeyes at #14 for the time being, and USC only falls to #10. This allows idle Brigham Young to move up to #9 and two other idle teams, #11 Kansas and #13 Boise State, get pushed up to position the losers in their appropriate spots. Auburn blew their chance to advance by struggling with Tennessee and remains #15.

Undefeated Vanderbilt and Utah move up a spot each, as does Connecticut, who beat Louisville in their third close win. #19 is Oregon, and they jump #20 Cincinnati; the Bearcats narrowly defeated Akron on the road 17-15.

Florida falls the farthest of any team this week, from #2 all the way to #21. They lost to an unranked team, and unlike USC, they have no wins over top 25 teams to cushion their fall. They also got beat at home.

Five new teams enter the top 25 (or top 26, since two are tied for the final spot). These consist of all the remaining undefeated teams that haven't been ranked yet this year. Conveniently, enough teams lost and fell out to open enough spaces. #22 Kentucky has played well this year and is 4-0, along with #23 Oklahoma State who throttled Troy to get revenge for last season's loss. #24 Northwestern beat Iowa in Iowa City to go 5-0, and even their road win over Duke looks pretty good now. Tied at #25 are two non-BCS undefeated teams who will have fewer tough games over the course of the season: Tulsa and Ball State. But both are playing like legit ranked teams so far.

Dropping out: Wake Forest lost embarrasingly to Navy. This is enough to kick them out of the top 25, but it had the added effect of making sure Colorado fell out too, as the Buffs lost to Florida State, who lost last week to the Demon Deacons. Clemson and UNLV each suffered their second loss of the year.

A handful of BCS busters have new hope after upsets in week 5

Of all the potential BCS busters, only TCU lost last week. They were probably the BCS team most likely to make it to the title game if they finished undefeated, as they would have wins over Oklahoma, BYU, and Utah. Alas, they were stomped by the Sooners, putting an end to that fantasy.

But the remaining teams got new hope. USC's loss essentially removed a team that was already slated for the title game, increasing the odds that an undefeated Mountain West team might slip into the title game if circumstances like last year's repeat. And big losses by Florida, Georgia, and Wisconsin gave the unranked teams on this list some hope that they might eventually be able to claw their way into the the top 12, which is necessary for a BCS bowl bid.

There are five BCS busters left; two were idle, and two faced Division I-AA foes, so there's little change due to their performance. Here is the updated list.

1. BYU: TCU didn't look like a world beater against Oklahoma, which makes BYU's path a bit easier, but the Cougars still have to prove they can beat Utah on the road. I move them to the top not because that looks any more likely, but because Utah's path got a big tougher. BYU has their second road game next week; if they have any trouble at all, it doesn't bode well for their chances of winning in Salt Lake City. Next week: @Utah State. Pitfalls: @TCU, @Utah
2. Utah: All of a sudden Thurday night's Oregon State game looks a lot worse than it did just a week ago. But if they get past that one they're probably back to #1. Next week: Oregon State. Pitfalls: Oregon State, TCU, BYU.
3. Boise State: The Broncos were idle last week. Their toughest remaining test, Fresno State, struggled to beat UCLA. Next week: Louisiana Tech. Pitfalls: Fresno State.
4. Ball State: The Cardinals benefitted more than anyone from the upsets in the top ten. Their schedule is so easy that even going 13-0 probably won't put them in the top 12 unless there are very few 1-loss teams around. The BCS computers won't put them there either, so they may need to get in the top ten in the polls. So they have to win convincingly and hope other teams continue to falter. Next week: @Toledo. Pitfalls: @Central Michigan, MAC championship game.
5. Tulsa: Good news and bad news for Tulsa. Arkansas looks pathetic and should probably be taken off the "pitfalls" list. But future opponent Houston beat East Carolina, and Rice scored 77 points Saturday. So while their toughest games seem easier, their overall schedule looks a bit more challenging. Next week: Rice. Pitfalls: @Arkansas, C-USA championship game

2nd big upset of week 5: Mississippi 31, Florida 30

A blocked extra point and a stuffed Tim Tebow run on 4th down stopped Florida's comeback attempt and gave Mississippi a 31-30 victory in the Swamp, the second huge upset of a top five team this weekend.

Florida seemed to be in control at halftime. After Mississippi stuck first for a 7-0, Tebow passed for a touchdown and ran for another to give the Gators a 17-7 lead.

But the third quarter was all Mississippi. Jevon Snead's 18-yard completion and Dexter McCluster's 40-yard run gave the Rebels a 24-17 lead.

Tebow ran for his 2nd touchdown of the game to tie it at 24, but on the next possession Snead hit Shay Hodge who bolted 85 yards for a touchdown with five minutes left.

Florida marched downfield and Percy Harvin rushed in from 15 yards out. But the extra point was snuffed by Kentrell Lockett, who vaulted over the center to block the kick, leaving the Rebels ahead 31-30.

The Gator defense quickly forced a punt to give the ball back to Tebow with under two minutes left. The Gators drove downfield again and was at Mississippi's 32 yard line facing 4th and a long one. Tebow's attempt had no chance as he ran into a pile of defenders for no gain.

Tebow finished with 319 yards passing but managed only 7 net rushing yards due to three sacks. For Mississippi, Jevon Snead completed only nine passes but two of those went for touchdowns.

Game Preview/Odds/Predictions - Week 5 is Anticlimactic now

Can the rest of the weekend even hope to live up to the Oregon State upset of USC? Probably not, but there are a lot of good games and possible upsets on the board. Here are the best dozen:

• #19 Connecticut (4-0) at Louisville (2-1): Connecticut is a 3-point underdog. Granted they've been sloppy, but what Louisville team have the oddsmakers been watching? Not the one that lost 27-2 to Kentucky at home. If the Cardinals beat the Huskies the Wildcats are the ones who look good.
• Minnesota (4-0) at #14 Ohio State (3-1): One of the unexpectedly still-undefeated Big Ten teams faces their first test. The Buckeyes are locked in place in the polls now due to USC's loss; an upset means the Buckeyes fall out of the top 25, USC will fall a few extra spots, and Minnesota will be ranked for the first time...in a long time. Ohio State is an 18 point favorite; with their offense it's hard to tell if they'll score 18. Who knows if Wells is actually healthy, so I take the Gophers to cover, but the Bucks win with defense.
• North Carolina (2-1) at Miami (2-1): A crucial game for both teams, I had UNC winning this one handily pre-season. But a few things have changed recently. North Carolina lost their starting quarterback. Second, the psychology this week has to be all Miami after their win over Texas A&M and the Tar Heels blowing a 17-0 lead to lose to Virginia Tech. I'd take Miami in a rout vs. the 7 points.
• Northwestern (4-0) at Iowa (3-1): The Wildcats are undefeated and the Hawkeyes probably still should be. Iowa is an 8 1/2 point favorite, which is a tough call. Iowa's offense has had trouble getting on track vs. any team better than Maine and FIU. Their defense is good enough to get the win at home, but it could be close and Northwestern often gives them fits.
• Maryland (3-1) at #21 Clemson (3-1): The Tigers are favored by a whopping 11 points. I understand oddsmakers being down on Maryland, but have they forgotten the Alabama game? Clemson hasn't faced anyone decent since then, while Maryland has been much better their last 2 games. I think the Terrapins can win outright, and should at least keep it close as their defense was good even in their first two lackluster games.
• Wisconsin (3-0) at Michigan (1-2): Yet another undefeated Big Ten team. The Badgers are just outside my top 25 but are top ten in most polls, and according to my power ratings they might actually deserve it. Michigan's offense is woeful and the defense isn't picking up the slack. They're only 6 point underdogs and I think they'll beat the spread as Wisconsin seems to always win by a field goal. If they get blown out it could be a long year for the Wolverines, but they can start the road to recovery with an upset.
• #23 Colorado (3-0) at Florida State (2-1): FSU has all their suspended defensive players back; even without them, they held Wake Forest to 12 points. But the offense was the real problem, and not much changes there. I think they can handle the Buffs, though taking them against the 5 1/2 point spread means having more confidence in the offense than I do.
• Texas Christian (4-0) at #1 Oklahoma (3-0): This was the potential upset of a high-rated team that I had considered might happen. Instead USC was victimized. But the Sooners never were looking ahead, as TCU is undefeated and playing very well, and the team remembers the last time they came in and upset them. This is a great test for both teams, but like the Cincinnati game this one is in Norman so I favor the Sooners, though 18 1/2 points might be a bit much. (That's what I thought about Cincinnati too but the Sooners covered that one, so...) An upset by the Horned Frogs puts TCU in the driver's seat among the BCS-busters.
• Troy (2-1) at Oklahoma State (3-0): Revenge? The oddsmakers seem to think so, with the Cowboys an 18 point favorite. I don't think they'll win by nearly that much.
• #11 Alabama (4-0) at #7 Georgia (4-0): The winner of this game gets kudos for going 5-0 against a tough schedule. Alabama already beat Clemson while Georgia put down South Carolina and Arizona State in back-to-back weeks both on the road. With USC dropping each has an opportunity to really jump with a big win. The Tide is playing well but Georgia is really looking strong and gets to play at home this week. For the 3rd straight week the Bulldogs are favored by 7, but this time I think that number is a bit low.
• Virginia Tech (3-1) at Nebraska (3-0): A great non-conference matchup, and one of my pre-season top 10 coolest games. Tech messed up by not coming in undefeated, but they've managed to stay respectable while the Huskers are 3-0 as expected. Nebraska is favored by a touchdown, which seems as good as any guess I have.
• Illinois (2-1) at #10 Penn State (4-0): The Illini are still overrated in my book, but the oddsmakers have them a 15 1/2 point underdog, which almost makes me want to go with Illinois. Not to win, but to keep it close, or rather, keep scoring all game like they did against Missouri.

USC loss shakes up national title picture, Heisman race, Rose Bowl?

Southern Cal's stunning 27-21 loss the Oregon State clearly puts the national title up for grabs. Now any team that goes undefeated—and many that have one loss—will be ahead of the Trojans in line.

Because they lost to Oregon State, who already had 2 losses, this will hurt USC a lot. But it's early in the year, which gives them a lot of time to come back; if the Beavers do well from this point forward, the loss won't look as bad; and USC won't fall any lower than Ohio State (currently #13 USA), so they have a built-in cushion. Ohio State fans can't be too happy about how this makes their squad look.

Still, many teams are rejoicing tonight as their national title hopes took a big leap. Either Oklahoma or Georgia, depending on how they do in their tough games, will take over at #1, and the Floridas, Missouris, and others from the SEC and Big Twelve now control their own destiny with USC out of the way. BCS-busters like BYU and Utah have more hope that an undefeated season might translate into the Big Game rather than "just" a BCS bowl berth.

Other Pac-10 teams should be celebrating too, because now even the Rose Bowl is up for grabs with USC in a 0-1 hole. Realistically, though, the Pac-10 is pretty bad this year, so USC is still the odds-on favorite to win the league. And if they win out and don't make the BCS title game, they'll play in the Rose Bowl...and if Ohio State wins the Big Ten? We'll see the rematch that no one wants to see, in nearly the same locale!

Another race impacted is the Heisman race. Mark Sanchez had quickly been elevated to the top of some people's Heisman lists. I've been a Sanchez promoter since last season when he showed great talent, but after the first two wins this year people were getting ahead of themselves. He still makes mistakes. I think he'll be a top contender next year, and he's not yet out of it this season, but he will lose a lot of momentum with this game.

UPSET!!! Final score: Oregon State 27, USC 21

Oregon State shook up the college football world, stunning USC 27-21.

The Beavers used strong defense and a good running game to take an unexpected 21-0 lead into halftime, which basically meant that the game was a tossup. USC was favored by 25 points, and Oregon State was just 1-2 so far.

In the second half, USC's offense took control and scored two easy touchdowns in the 3rd quarter, and began the 4th quarter down 7 and with the ball. But the Beavers didn't give up; Greg Laybourn intercepted Mark Sanchez deep in USC territory and led with 2 minutes to go, 27-14.

As the Oregon State students gathered on the sidelines and the players doused Oregon State head coach Mike Riley with Gatorade, the Trojans quickly scored another TD themselves, and were down only 6 with 1:19 to go. But their onside kick failed and the near-unanimous #1 fell to the Beavers again.

Jacquiz Rogers was the offensive star for the Beavers. The Freshman ran for an astounding 186 yards, finding holes around and underneath the USC defense all night. He scored 2 touchdowns. The Beaver rushing defense, #1 in the country last year but losing all seven starters on the defensive front, held USC's running back corps to just 88 yards, with Joe McKnight managing only 10.

Commentary

This is yet another case of USC being overrated after a big win. People were saying they are undoubtedly #1, the best USC team ever, etc. This is becoming a yearly event. Then the team gets big-headed and has trouble with teams they should beat by four touchdowns.

Now watch: the articles will quickly switch to "what is wrong with the Trojans?" after which they'll have a few blowouts and by the end of the year, be back in the sports press' good graces.

ALSO: I'm going to continue to skewer ESPN360 until they solve their fundamental problem of dropping games in the 4th quarter. Certainly when one "broadcast" runs out they can have part II ready immediately, so that users don't miss several minutes?

Heisman Top 25 - week 4

The Switcheroo: Several players swap places in another uneventful Heisman week. The big change is at the top spot, where Chase Daniel's consistent performance—against consistently drab competition—has earned him the front-runner status. Daniel had his 3rd straight 80%+ completion rate, hitting 20 passes in a row against Buffalo. He dislodges Tim Tebow, who had another pedestrian outing even as Florida cruised past Tennessee. Despite his uninspiring numbers, Tebow is still a solid #2; he'll perform well in the big games and if Florida goes undefeated he will be in New York regardless of his numbers. Daniel is a strong #1 but will have to keep it up in the Big Twelve, though Missouri has a relatively easy schedule for that conference. #3 Knowshon Moreno played well against ASU, garnering almost 150 yards and a highlight-reel Superman flight TD, but so far he's alternated between good games and average ones. As a sophomore there's still a higher standard so he'll need more games like his latest even to stay in third place.

The second switch is #4 Mark Sanchez and #5 Beanie Wells. Sanchez was idle last week, so it's fairer to say Wells drops a spot for missing yet another game. At this point Wells' chances of winning the trophy are nil barring a Barry Sanders-esque finish. Like Michigan's Mike Hart last year, he's missed too many games to get his stats high enough, but with a great comeback he could still get a trip to New York if some of the other contenders falter. Sanchez plays Thursday night against Oregon State and could have a good stats-padder, but anything other than a great performance will raise doubts in voters' minds as to whether he's driving his team or simply hitched his wagon.

Another switch trades #6 Sam Bradford and #7 Patrick White. Again, as Bradford was idle, it's White moving down a notch after West Virginia's 2nd loss of the season. White's passing game was almost completely missing, just 43 yards, though he rushed for nearly 150 and 2 TDs. White needs to get going or he has no chance of even being a finalist; the two losses already have doomed his candidacy.

Jeremy Maclin, Missouri's 2nd candidate, had another strong receiving day with 168 yards and moves from #9 to #8, but he could peak there as his advancement depends on big plays such as kick return touchdowns, and with Daniel at #1 Maclin looks at best like Reggie Bush to Daniel's Matt Leinart (2004, not 2005). Max Hall of BYU engineered BYU's 2nd dominant win in a row and breaks the top ten at #9. Hall has a lot of upside potential as his name is just getting well-known and the Cougars' schedule is a good combination of soft games for stats and bigger games (TCU, Utah) for headlines in the Mountain West. Graham Harrell greatly improved his stats in just one game and now has a 65% completion rate with a 15:3 TD/Int ratio and over 1,500 passing yards in just four games; still he holds at #10 because he's done about as expected against the competition. He needs to have these kind of games in the Big Twelve and then he can move up. At #11 teammate Michael Crabtree had just 62 receiving yards and is well behind last year's pace for yardage and TDs, which can only mean: wait until next year, Mike.

1. (2) Chase Daniel, Missouri
    26-45  58%  359yd  3TD 1int; 9rsh 46yd 5.1av 0TD 0fmb (=ILL 52-42)
    16-17  94%  245yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (SEMoSt 52-3)
    23-28  82%  405yd  4TD 0int; 1rsh 12yd 12 av 0TD 0fmb (Nev 69-17)
    36-43  84%  439yd  2TD 0int; 4rsh 16yd 4.0av 0TD 0fmb (Buff. 42-21)
   101-133 76% 1412yd 12TD 1int;14rsh 74yd 5.3av 0TD 0fmb
2. (1) Tim Tebow, Florida
    9-14 64% 137yd 1TD 0int; 9rsh  37yd 4.1av 0TD 0fmb (Hawaii 56-10)
   21-35 60% 256yd 2TD 0int;13rsh  55yd 4.2av 0TD 0fmb (Miami 26-3)
    8-15 53%  96yd 2TD 0int;12rsh  26yd 2.2av 0TD 0fmb (@Tenn 30-6)
   38-64 59% 489yd 5TD 0int;34rsh 118yd 3.5av 0TD 0fmb
   
3. (3) Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
    8rsh  59yd 7.4av 3TD 0fmb; 2rec 53yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Ga.S 45-21)
   18rsh 168yd 9.3av 3TD 0fmb; 3rec 30yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (C Mich 56-17)
   20rsh  79yd 4.0av 1TD 0fmb; 2rec 13yd 0TD;32 rtYd (@SCaro 14-7)
   23rsh 149yd 6.5av 2TD 0fmb; 0rec  0yd 0TD;-2 rtYd (@ASU 27-10)
   69rsh 455yd 6.6av 9TD 0fmb; 7rec 96yd 0TD;30 rtYd
   
4. (5) Mark Sanchez, USC: idle last weekend
   26-35 74% 338yd 3TD 1int; 1rsh  6yd 6.0av 0TD 0fmb (@VA 52-7)
   17-28 61% 172yd 4TD 1int; 2rsh-10yd -10av 0TD 0fmb (OSU 35-3)
   43-63 68% 510yd 7TD 2int; 3rsh -4yd -1 av 0TD 0fmb
5. (4) Chris Wells, Ohio State: did not play (Troy 28-10)
   season: 13rsh 111yd 8.5av 1TD 1fmb; 3rec 10yd
   
6. (7) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma: idle last weekend
   season: 64-81 79% 882yd 12TD 2int; 4rsh 4yd 1.0av 1TD 0fmb
7. (6) Patrick White, WVA: 10-14 71% 43yd 0TD 0int;19rsh 148yd 2TD 0fmb
   season: 46-65 71% 323yd 5TD 1int; 48rsh 308yd 6.4ave 2TD 1fmb
8. (9) Jeremy Maclin, MO: 14rec 168yd 0TD 1fmb; 2rsh 25yd 12.5av 1TD; 43rtYd (Buff 42-21)
   season: 26rec 391yd 4TD 1fmb; 8rsh 43yd 5.4av 1TD; 340 rtYd 1TD
9. (11) Max Hall, BYU: 16-27 59% 189yd 3TD 0int; 0rsh 0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (Wyoming 44-0)
   season: 107-144 74% 1284yd 15TD 2int; 6rsh 16yd 2.7ave 1TD 2fmb
10. (10) G. Harrell, T. Tech: 27-34 79% 334yd 4TD 0int; 1rsh 0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (Mass 56-14)
    season: 120-186 65% 1573yd 12TD 3int; 8rsh -6yd -.8av 1TD 0fmb
11. (8) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech: 29rec 457yd 6TD; 1rsh 3yd 3.0av 0TD 0fmb
12. (12) P.J. Hill, Wisconsin: 70rsh 379yds 5.4ave 4TD 1fmb
13. (24) Javon Ringer, Mich. St: 143rsh 699yd 4.9av 11TD 2fmb; 4rec 37yd 0TD;200 rtYd
14. (14) Colt McCoy, Texas: 63-81 78% 833yd 11TD 1int; 25rsh 194yd 7.8ave 2TD 0fmb
15. (13) Matt Stafford, Georgia: 62-102 61% 919yd 5TD 0int; 16rsh 22yd 1.4av 0TD 0fmb
16. (15) Juice Williams, Illinois: 55-92 60% 575yd 7TD 5int; 46rsh 219yd 4.8ave 2TD 1fmb 
17. (16) Shun White, Navy: 63rsh 673yd 10.7ave 4TD 0fmb; 2rec 36yd 0TD
18. (18) Jahvid Best, Cal: 48rsh 336yd 7.0av 4TD 0fmb; 11rec 130yd 0TD; 238 rtYd
19. (17) Patrick Pinkney, E. Carolina: 82-115 71% 917yd 5TD 2int; 35rsh 72yd 2.1av 1TD 2fmb
20. (20) Percy Harvin, Florida: 11rsh 58yd 1TD 0fmb; 3rec 61yd 1TD
21. (21) Rey Maualuga, USC: 7 tackles (4 solo); 1 INT 1 TD
22. (22) James Laurinaitis, Ohio State: 35 tackles (14 solo); 1 INT
23. (new) Charles Scott, LSU: 44rsh 394yd 9.0av 4TD 0fmb; 4rec 37yd 0TD
24. (19) Louie Sakoda, Utah: 7 of 9 FGs; 18 of 19 PATs; 12 punts, 47.1av; 1-1 pass 9yd
25. (new) Dante Love, Ball State: 28rec 460yd 3TD; 14rsh 64yd 2TD

Others: Donald Brown, Connecticut; David Johnson, Tulsa; Brandon Tate, North Carolina; Todd Reesing, Kansas; Dan LeFevour, Central Michigan.

P.J. Hill and Javon Ringer are two great Big Ten running backs; Hill was idle and remains 12th, while Ringer racked up his third straight 200 yard game against Notre Dame and jumps from 24th to 13th. Note that Hill has half as many carries. Can Ringer continue to handle the workload he's taken on for the Spartans? If so, he'll jump quickly past Hill and probably contend for top running back on the list.

Colt McCoy holds at #14 despite another fantastic performance. It seems no one is talking about McCoy and the Heisman in the same breath. Why not? Heisman Pundit correctly notes that McCoy's chance to shine comes later, in big games against Oklahoma, et al. But that doesn't explain why his great numbers—19 of 23 and 4TD this week, #3 in the nation in pass efficiency—are being ignored so far. He even had a highlight-reel-worthy touchdown run against Rice, bulling head-first on a second effort to score. I did move him ahead of the overrated Matt Stafford, who played well against ASU but is clearly not Heisman material as he pales next to Moreno. Illinois' Juice Williams slides down a notch as well to #16.

#17 Shun White of Navy helped in the upset of Rutgers, but his rushing yardage has gone down each week. Cal's Jahvid Best holds at #18 on an idle week, while Patrick Pinkney of East Carolina slides to #19 due to the Pirates' loss and Pinkney's 2 turnovers that contributed to it. #20 Percy Harvin has been even more uninspiring than Tim Tebow for the Gators so far. Where is Florida's offense coming from, with Tebow and Harvin doing the bare minimum? Are they becoming dependent on Brandon James' return yardage?

Rey Maualuga and James Laurinaitis hold at 21 and 22; the latter had 12 tackles against Troy, but the former still leads due to that interception TD in the race for The Defensive Player Who Invariably Finishes Ninth. And while we're covering the token players, punter/kicker Louie Sakoda floats down five spots for his first two missed field goals this season. He's averaging an amazing 47.1 yards per punt, though.

Clemson's Cullen Harper threw 2 interceptions against South Carolina State and Appalachian State lost their second game, so Harper and Armanti Edwards drop off the list. LSU's Charles Scott moves in at #23 after keying the Tigers' win over Auburn; he's averaging a stellar 9 yards a carry, and if LSU can navigate their killer schedule unblemished he'll likely work his way into the top five at least. At #25 is Dante Love of Ball State, #2 in the nation in receiving yards per game. Love won't be on the list next week, as he suffered a terrible injury that required emergency surgery and will never play football again. He deserves recognition for the year—and pro career—that could have been.

Others of note: Donald Brown of Connecticut continued his string of great performances and is the nation's leading rusher. Clearly he'll have to keep that up for anyone to notice. Tulsa's David Johnson had another 6 TD performance; UNC's Brandon Tate is #1 in all-purpose yards; Todd Reesing continues to fuel Kansas' offense; and Central Michigan's Dan LeFevour nearly pulled off an upset of Purdue on Saturday.

Ball State receiver Dante Love's football career is over

Dante Love, senior wide receiver for the 4-0 Ball State Cardinals, and until last weekend the leading pass catcher in the country, will not play football again.

Love was injured in the 2nd quarter against Indiana Saturday, and spent 15 minutes on the ground before being rushed to the hospital for five hours of surgery to repair a spinal fracture. Love was reportedly able to move his hands and feet after the operation, and doctors say he'll likely make a full recover—aside from being able to play football.

Full story here.

Commentary: Apart from the obvious bad news for Love, the injury was bad news for the Cardinals as well. Love was an important part of the offense, and with him they had a real chance of going undefeated this year. It's a good sign that they were still able to beat Indiana without him, though maybe emotion gave them the edge. The Hoosiers were their big hurdle, but they have a lot of games left and he was their go-to receiver.

At the bottom line, it's great news that he can live a normal life, but unfortunately a "normal" life doesn't include playing in the NFL, or even on a college team trying to have a breakthrough season.

Below is a video of Dante Love in action.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 4

The top 10 remains largely the same this week. #1 Oklahoma and #3 USC didn't play, while #2 Florida took care of business against Tennessee, 30-6. #4 South Florida joins #5 Texas Tech as the most likely overrated teams in my rankings, as they struggled with bottom-of-the-barrel Florida International, beating them 17-9. They do have the win over Kansas, so we'll forgive the FIU game (as well as the UCF overtime game) for now. As for the Red Raiders, they are at least are starting to dominate the foes on their thus-far pansy schedule, beating I-AA Massachusetts 56-14.

Missouri holds at #6 once again. #7 Georgia handled ex-#25 Arizona State pretty easily, 27-10, while fellow SEC mate LSU beat Auburn on the road. Neither move up right now, but LSU's win should carry some weight as Auburn only fell from #13 to #15, while both of Georgia's recent foes were knocked out of the top 25. Texas and Penn State have both been solid all year, though facing little opposition, and slide into the #9 and #10 slots. Former #9 Oregon fell to #22 after losing at home to Boise State, 37-32.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 4 (9-21-2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
1	1.	Oklahoma	3-0	wCin52-26
2	2.	Florida	3-0
3	3.	Southern Cal	2-0	wOSU35-3
4	4.	South Florida	4-0	wKU37-34
5	5.	Texas Tech	4-0
6	6.	Missouri	4-0
7	7.	Georgia	4-0	w@ASU27-10
8	8.	LSU	3-0	w@Aub26-21
10	9.	Texas	3-0
11	10.	Penn State	4-0
12	11.	Alabama	4-0	w=Clem34-10
15	12.	Brigham Young	4-0
14	13.	Kansas	3-1	L@USF37-34
16	14.	Ohio State	3-1	L@USC35-3
13	15.	Auburn	3-1	L LSU26-21
	16.	Boise State	3-0	w@Oregon37-32
18	17.	Vanderbilt	4-0
20	18.	Utah	4-0	wUNLV42-21
19	19.	Connecticut	4-0
21	20.	Cincinnati	2-1	L@OK52-26
22	21.	Clemson	3-1	L=Ala 34-10
9	22.	Oregon	3-1	L BoiseSt37-32
	23.	Colorado	3-0	wWVA17-14ot
24	24.	UNLV	3-1	L@Utah42-21;w@ASU23-20ot
	25.	Wake Forest	3-0
		out:
17	-	East Carolina	3-1	L@NCst30-23ot;wWVA24-3
25	-	Arizona St	2-2	L UNLV23-20ot;L GA27-10
23	-	West Virginia	1-2	L@ECar24-3;L@Col17-14ot

Alabama moves up another spot to #11 after dominating Arkansas, though it looks more like the Razorbacks are really bad than the Tide necessarily great. Brigham Young had another shutout and leaps three spots to #12, while #13 Kansas and #14 Ohio State had some struggles on Saturday but got the job done.

Boise State is the big debut in the rankings at #16. Oregon was by far the toughest hurdle on their schedule. Another upstart, Vanderbilt, is 4-0 and moves up a spot to #17. #18 Utah topped previously unbeaten Air Force and jumps Connecticut, who struggled mightily at home with Baylor. Cincinnati rounds out the top 20, with Clemson just behind.

Colorado replaces West Virginia at #23, beating them by a field goal to remain unbeaten. Wake Forest also debuts this week after defeating Florida State for the right to the #25 slot.

UNLV enjoys a second week in the top 25, remaining at #24 after narrowly escaping with a win in overtime against Iowa State. Like I said last week, until it's proven they're not a top 25 team they'll stay in. Their only loss is to #18 Utah, and their schedule going forward suggests they could remain for a few more weeks until having to prove it against BYU. The team they beat to get in, Arizona State, falls out this week, so they have no margin for error.

In addition to ASU, East Carolina drops out after losing to North Carolina State. It didn't help them that West Virginia, their marquee win, suffered a second loss and fell out as well. Their early schedule turned out to be softer than expected, as Virginia Tech is also a couple of field goals away from 1-3.

There are still nine unranked undefeated teams. Three are from the Big Ten including Wisconsin, who is in the top 10 in other polls, and even in my power rating. They play Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State over the next three weeks. Nebraska and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 and Kentucky from the SEC will also get their opportunities to prove themselves, and TCU plays Oklahoma this coming weekend. The two who will have to wait the longest to be ranked are Tulsa (C-USA) and Ball State (MAC), who don't play a difficult schedule, but they'll be ranked eventually if they keep winning, especially if they do so convincingly.

Power Ratings, week 4

It's post-week 4 and the later power ratings are offering up some clues as to who might really be the best—and worst—teams in the country. So now we attempt to use the ratings to demonstrate the following points, as of week 4:

• Florida's defense may be better, relatively, than their offense
• Washington State is not only the worst BCS team, but could the worst I-AA team, period
• Notre Dame isn't nearly as bad as last year so far, but is almost exactly average
• Ball State might not just go undefeated because of their easy schedule, but could truly be a top 25 caliber team
• TCU is playing like a top ten team

This week's Overall top ten:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Georgia                     (4-0)   40.66 [ 1]  35.54 [ 2]   5.12 [ 5]
  2. Penn State                  (4-0)   38.84 [ 2]  35.79 [ 1]   3.04 [21]
  3. Southern Cal                (2-0)   36.64 [ 3]  33.14 [ 4]   3.50 [17]
  4. Oklahoma                    (3-0)   36.35 [ 4]  33.68 [ 3]   2.66 [25]
  5. Florida                     (3-0)   34.36 [ 5]  31.01 [ 6]   3.34 [19]
  6. Texas                       (3-0)   34.13 [ 6]  31.39 [ 5]   2.73 [24]
  7. Alabama                     (4-0)   31.69 [ 7]  25.23 [ 9]   6.45 [ 2]
  8. Wisconsin                   (3-0)   31.47 [ 8]  25.82 [ 7]   5.64 [ 3]
  9. Vanderbilt                  (4-0)   28.25 [ 9]  23.01 [13]   5.24 [ 4]
 10. Kentucky                    (3-0)   27.70 [10]  23.80 [11]   3.89 [13]

Most of the names are pretty familiar there: Georgia, which started #1 in the national polls, USC number 3, Oklahoma and Florida in the top five, and Penn State is rated a bit higher at #2. The top ten has five SEC teams, though not the same ones as in the AP and USA/coaches, as Vanderbilt and Kentucky stand at #9 and #10.

Here is this week's Strength rating top ten, which uses score margin only:

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Penn State                  (4-0)   38.84 [ 2]  35.79 [ 1]   3.04 [21]
  2. Georgia                     (4-0)   40.66 [ 1]  35.54 [ 2]   5.12 [ 5]
  3. Oklahoma                    (3-0)   36.35 [ 4]  33.68 [ 3]   2.66 [25]
  4. Southern Cal                (2-0)   36.64 [ 3]  33.14 [ 4]   3.50 [17]
  5. Texas                       (3-0)   34.13 [ 6]  31.39 [ 5]   2.73 [24]
  6. Florida                     (3-0)   34.36 [ 5]  31.01 [ 6]   3.34 [19]
  7. Wisconsin                   (3-0)   31.47 [ 8]  25.82 [ 7]   5.64 [ 3]
  8. South Carolina              (2-2)   26.66 [13]  25.50 [ 8]   1.16 [48]
  9. Alabama                     (4-0)   31.69 [ 7]  25.23 [ 9]   6.45 [ 2]
 10. Tulsa                       (3-0)   26.55 [14]  24.11 [10]   2.44 [27]

Penn State has been the most impressive team by this measure, crushing all their foes, but Georgia, Oklahoma, USC, and Texas are not far behind.

Here is the same Strength rating, but using the games of all 727 teams from all divisions. Note that USC is now a clear #1, but most of the same teams are represented.

  #  Team                         rec   Rating  Off   Def
  1. Southern Cal                 2-0   88.01  73.19 -14.82
  2. Penn State                   4-0   81.64  72.86  -8.77
  3. Florida                      3-0   77.26  61.61 -15.64
  4. Texas                        3-0   75.03  61.97 -13.06
  5. Oklahoma                     3-0   72.27  73.62   1.35
  6. TCU                          4-0   68.71  53.70 -15.01
  7. Kansas St                    2-1   68.63  64.32  -4.30
  8. Alabama                      4-0   68.37  56.89 -11.48
  9. California                   2-1   68.31  73.14   4.83
 10. Tulsa                        3-0   68.29  68.44   0.14

The above rating is slightly different in the early weeks, but later comes to resemble the Division I-A rating once I-A teams have played a majority I-A schedule. The Division I-A -only ratings are skewed at first by lack of knowledge of I-AA opposition; later on the I-AA games fade in significance. This is a good thing, and keeps wins over I-AA teams from impacting the ratings much by the end of the year. But right now the X-Division (cross-division) rankings workbetter.

Who has the best offense and defense? Well based on the games played so far, Oklahoma is the offense king, and Kentucky, believe it or not, is best on defense.

  #  Team                         rec    Margin  Off    Def
  1. Oklahoma                     3-0    33.68  51.80  18.11
  2. California                   2-1    16.88  51.11  34.22
  3. Tulsa                        3-0    24.11  49.06  24.95
  4. Missouri                     4-0    16.09  47.45  31.35
  5. Oregon                       3-1    13.52  45.04  31.52
  6. Penn State                   4-0    35.79  43.82   8.02
  7. North Carolina               2-1    19.91  43.30  23.38
  8. Mississippi                  2-2    16.62  43.26  26.64
  9. Georgia Tech                 3-1    20.82  42.43  21.61
 10. Utah                         4-0    19.05  42.26  23.20

  #  Team                         rec    Margin  Off    Def
  1. Kentucky                     3-0    23.80  23.74  -0.06
  2. Southern Cal                 2-0    33.14  35.09   1.94
  3. Georgia                      4-0    35.54  38.37   2.83
  4. Wake Forest                  3-0    20.85  24.40   3.55
  5. Virginia Tech                3-1    18.83  22.55   3.71
  6. Texas                        3-0    31.39  37.64   6.25
  7. Boston College               2-1     9.60  15.89   6.28
  8. Florida                      3-0    31.01  38.03   7.01
  9. Vanderbilt                   4-0    23.01  30.21   7.20
 10. Michigan St                  3-1    11.68  19.49   7.81

Again, with the games of all 700+ teams included, the answers are a bit different and probably a bit more accurate. Oklahoma is still the best offense, but USC comes in at #2 and BYU is in the top ten. Defensively, Wake Forest is #1, with TCU up at #3.

Now for the fun findings:

• Note that above, Florida's offense doesn't show up in the top ten—it ranks 19th, while the defense that held Miami to three points, Hawaii to 10, and Tennessee to 6 is ranked 8th.

• Washington State, as mentioned, is #131 out of 133 teams (13 division I-AA are listed due to playing majority I-A schedules so far; they'll be excluded in later ratings) and the lowest-rated I-A team of all. Winning last week didn't keep them out of the cellar, as they beat a lowly I-AA opponent. But they might not quite be the worst: SMU ranks lower in the X-Division Strength ratings.

• Notre Dame is doing much better than last year when they finished 80th in the country in Strength. This year so far they're 60th, which puts them smack dab in the middle of the 120 I-A teams.

• The Ball State Cardinals are undefeated and looking to remain so all year. They play in the MAC, so even if their record is unblemished, it will be hard to tell if they're really any good. What does the computer say? Well so far, they're #24 in Strength. The Strength rating uses score margin, which is the area they'll do worst in if they go undefeated. Last year, for example, Hawaii was near the top ten in Success (which only considers if you won the game) and around 50th in Strength, which was a dead giveaway about their true quality. So far Ball State looks like a legit top 25 team, but not a BCS-bowl-level squad.

• One team that might fit the BCS bill is Texas Christian. They're #12 in Strength, ranking above even BYU and Utah, both of whom make the top 25. They're even better, #6, in the X-Divisional Strength ratings. This suggests that they have a shot at winning the Mountain West instead of the two favorites. Even so, TCU would have to get past Oklahoma next week to go undefeated. If they do, however, they'll have a legit claim not only to a BCS bowl but a BCS championship game berth.

Finally, here are the Success ratings, which are based on winning and losing only—no point margins used.

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Utah                        (4-0)   25.99 [15]  19.05 [21]   6.93 [ 1]
  2. Alabama                     (4-0)   31.69 [ 7]  25.23 [ 9]   6.45 [ 2]
  3. Wisconsin                   (3-0)   31.47 [ 8]  25.82 [ 7]   5.64 [ 3]
  4. Vanderbilt                  (4-0)   28.25 [ 9]  23.01 [13]   5.24 [ 4]
  5. Georgia                     (4-0)   40.66 [ 1]  35.54 [ 2]   5.12 [ 5]
  6. Boise St                    (3-0)   15.26 [32]  10.28 [42]   4.98 [ 6]
  7. Ball St                     (4-0)   22.11 [22]  17.46 [24]   4.65 [ 7]
  8. South Florida               (4-0)    2.06 [70]  -2.29 [81]   4.36 [ 8]
  9. Missouri                    (4-0)   20.31 [25]  16.09 [27]   4.21 [ 9]
 10. LSU                         (3-0)   26.99 [12]  22.85 [15]   4.13 [10]

Wisconsin might be for real this year, it seems; their opponents rank high enough to put them at #3 in Success, and they've beaten them by enough to keep their Strength rating high as well. But South Florida might be a pretender. They've beaten some good foes, like Kansas, but their stinker of a game against Florida International gives them a below-par Strength, only 81st in the country.

It's still very early in the year and really, not many good teams have played each other, so a lot will change. But the preliminary findings are sure interesting.

After week 4, six BCS-busters remain

East Carolina lost in overtime to North Carolina State, Troy fell as expected to Ohio State, and Utah took out Air Force, leaving just six BCS busters to rank:

1. Utah: Air Force might have been tougher than their next challenge, Oregon State, and it showed again that they can win on the road. But their toughest remaining challenges are at home. Pitfalls: Oregon State, TCU, BYU.
2. BYU: Note to self: don't play BYU in Provo. After crushing UCLA 59-0 the Cougars did the same to Wyoming, 44-0. But have they hit their stride or are they just dominant at home? I still put them behind Utah because of the Washington road scare; overall they're the top non-BCS team, but the Mountain West "title" game is at Utah. Pitfalls: @TCU, @Utah
3. Boise State: The biggest development in the BCS-buster scene was Boise State's win at Oregon. Now the Broncos just need to keep their focus until the home game against Fresno State. It's looking more and more like another undefeated year. Pitfalls: Fresno State.
4. Ball State: The Cardinals beat Indiana, the only game I had them losing pre-season. Not only that, but they're actually playing like a top 25 team, which is necessary because their biggest hurdle left is getting rated high enough to be in a BCS bowl if they manage to go undefeated. Unfortunately for the Cardinals they lost nation-leading receiver Dante Love to a terrible injury. Pitfalls: @Central Michigan, MAC championship game.
5. Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane crushed New Mexico, but the best sight for Tulsa fans had to be Alabama further exposing Arkansas as a very poor team, and East Carolina looking very beatable, too. Pitfalls: @Arkansas, C-USA championship game
6. Texas Christian: TCU dominated SMU, but next week is Oklahoma, so they'll either be off this list or take a quantum leap up. Unlike Ball State and Tulsa, TCU will have no problem getting in the top 12 if they go undefeated. TCU is probably the only non-BCS team left that essentially controls their own destiny to the BCS title game due to their schedule. Pitfalls: @Oklahoma, BYU, @Utah.

Colorado tops West Virginia in overtime; final score 17-14

Missed opportunities and poor clock management doomed West Virginia to their 2nd loss in the young season, as Colorado kicked a field goal in overtime to win 17-14 in Boulder.

The Buffaloes took an early 14-0 lead on two Cody Hawkins TD passes but had trouble sustaining drives for the rest of the game, even as Rodney Stewart rushed for 166 yards. They nearly had an interception, too, that would have been a sure touchdown but was dropped.

Patrick White led the Mountaineers back, rushing for two touchdowns, one in each half. In the 4th quarter West Virginia drove from their one-yard line into Colorado territory, but their 3rd string quarterback missed a golden opportunity, underthrowing a wide-open receiver on a trick play.

At the end of regulation coach Bill Stewart failed to call time out until 4 seconds were left, even though they had one to burn. They were left at the 45 yard line with only a hail-mary attempt which was batted down.

In the overtime period the Mountaineers were stopped at the 5 yard line, and facing 4th and 2 they attempted a field goal but Pat McAfee hit the upright; Aric Martin's kick was true on Colorado's OT possession.

The Buffaloes moves to 3-0 and have the potential for a very good season. The Mountaineers have some soul-searching to do at 1-2; they were almost completely dependent on the run, as White finished with 148 rushing yards but only 43 passing with negative passing yardage in the first half. Noel Devine added 133 yards.

Sooners coaches SHOULD be whining about Granger injury

I'm not sure why Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops and defensive line coach Jackie Shipps decided not to publicly support their players, saying that they won't "whine" about the play that resulted in DeMarcus Granger possibly missing the rest of the season. If I were them, I would be whining loud and clear, or at least taking matters through the proper channels to let Washington know that their players did something wrong.

Granger was hurt during Oklahoma's 55-14 blowout of the Huskies. On a broken play, Granger bulled through the line after the whistle had blown. He was unapologetic, but why not? He hadn't done it on purpose. He clearly though the play had started when Washington's line jumped. He didn't get away with it, either; a penalty was called by the officials.

On the next play, though, Washington's players triple teamed him and "gave him the business" a la the famous referee calls from years past. Granger limped off the field, and as it turns out was hurt worse than initially thought. He may be out the rest of the year, all for a little premeditated revenge. No penalty was called on the play.

What Granger did was a natural part of the game: being overaggressive. It only took a split second for him to run into the lineman, and he couldn't have stopped himself if he wanted. What the Washington players did was inexcuseable: they agreed to take a player down and physically punish him, and try to hurt him. That's beyond being aggressive, and has no place even in a game as violent as football.

But what adds insult to Granger's injury is how his coaches don't have his back. They should be livid at Washington and demand that Ty Willingham discipline his players for their actions. Instead, not wanting to look like "whiners," they've essentially said that Granger got what he deserved. "Those things happen. In this game, you’ve got to learn how to take care of yourself," Shipp said. I for one wouldn't want to play for a coach who had that attitude about an incident where opposing players had deliberately injured me.

Here's a video of both plays. You can judge for yourself as to how much Granger is to blame, and how much the Washington players were out of line, but to me it's Oklahoma's coaches that look like the losers in the end.

Week 4 preview, odds & predictions

Week four is upon us, and still a startling number of I-A teams are facing I-AA foes. But some teams are also getting into conference play, so there are some good matchups to be found.

Best Thursday night game for top 25 rights
#23 West Virginia (1-1) at Colorado (2-0) - The Buffaloes are in resurgence mode while the Mountaineers are picking up the pieces of their first loss. Winner goes in the top 25 next week. West Virginia is favored by a field goal.

The Friday night Will UConn And Donald Brown Ever Get Noticed award
Baylor (2-1) at #19 Connecticut (3-0) - UConn has the best unheralded back in college football in Donald Brown. The Huskies are favored by 12; I think they'll dominate the improved Bears at home.

Are You Good Or Not? Games
Arizona (2-1) at UCLA (1-1) - Arizona was kicking ass until last week when they got their ass kicked by New Mexico. And UCLA beat Tennessee but we saw what happened next. The Wildcats have grown to a 2 1/2 point favorite, but I wonder if UCLA is just a terrible road team and decent home team, and Arizona a great home team but poor road team?

Notre Dame (2-0) at Michigan State (2-1) - Notre Dame looked like crap in week one, decent in week two. But the Spartans and Javon Ringer have to be too tough at home despite losing to Cal in week one. They're an 8.5 point favorite, and I concur.

Virginia Tech (2-1) at North Carolina (2-0) - Both teams looked dismal in week one but came back strong. I think UNC is ready for a good year. The Tar Heels are 2 point favorites, so Vegas agrees.

Iowa (3-0) at Pittsburgh (1-1) - Is Iowa good again? The Hawks have slaughtered some weak foes. Pitt was supposed to be good this year but lost to Bowling Green. The Iowa defense is good, we know that much, and it might be too much for Pitt. The Panthers are a 1 point favorite but I say Iowa scores just enough for the win.

The Game That Lost the Most Luster
#7 Georgia (3-0) at #25 Arizona State (2-1) - A few weeks ago this was a marquee event, and one of my pre-season Top Ten matchups. It's still interesting for geographic and historical reasons, as the two teams have never met. But with ASU's terrible loss and Georgia's drop from #1 it's lost some shine. Even the SEC vs. Pac-10 aspect was ruined by the Pac-10's dismal weekend. But it's still the game of the week to me; Georgia is a one touchdown favorite.

The SEC, Blah Blah Blah
#2 Florida (2-0) at Tennessee (1-1) - Of course the SEC is the best conference this season, but the polls have them way overranked with half of the top ten. Now that conference play is starting, there will be no evidence to drop any of the teams, as they'll just be losing to each other! Here's one that could complicate matters; if Tennessee scores the upset, and they lost to UCLA, who lost to BYU by 59, it makes the SEC look pretty bad. The Gators are favored by 7 1/2.

#8 LSU (2-0) at #13 Auburn (3-0) - The way these teams are playing it could be a return to the crap-offence snoozefests of yore that were termed "good defense" by an ignorant pro-SEC announcer contingent. Make no mistake, Auburn's defense is good, but their offense sucks, which may make this another 9-7 affair. LSU is a 2 1/2 point favorite, so they get the 9 this time, Auburn the 7.

Two teams that are better than you think
Middle Tennessee (1-2) at Arkansas State (2-1) - Middle Tennessee beat Maryland, which went on to beat Cal. Then they lost by a single yard to Kentucky. Arkansas State upset Texas A&M, then beat Texas Southern 83-10. They lost to Southern Miss by a field goal. Middle Tennessee is playing almost as well as the Volunteers, and Arkansas State likely *is* the best team in Arkansas. The home team is a 5 1/2 point favorite.

The BYU-UCLA "they're playing AGAIN?" award
Central Michigan (2-1) at Purdue (1-1) - Is the third time a charm for Central Michigan? Depends on how Purdue responds to the heartbreaking loss to Oregon. The Boilers are a 10.5 point fave.

Two Can-The-MAC-Shock-The-World? games
Buffalo (2-1) at #6 Missouri (3-0) - Buffalo is looking a lot better these days, and gave Pitt a decent run. Missouri's a different matter, but I don't discount the idea of them hanging on a big too long. The Tigers are a 34 point favorite; I think it's time for them to fail against the spread.

Temple (1-2) at #11 Penn State (3-0) - I expected Temple to be more of an underdog than Buffalo, but they're only four touchdown dogs. Once again I take the MAC team (against the spread) as Penn State is due a letdown game.

BCS eliminator #1
Boise State (2-0) at #9 Oregon (3-0) - A loss eliminates Boise State from the BCS pool, or Oregon from the BCS title game pool, in all likelihood. Ducks are favored by 10 1/2, down from 12 1/2 due to ongoing quarterback woes.

BCS eliminator #2
Wake Forest (3-0) at Florida State (2-0) - Two teams I don't have ranked are essentially playing for a top 25 slot. And the winner has a real chance for a great year, an ACC title, and thus a BCS berth. FSU is a four point favorite, but they still are short a boatload of players on defense and I'm not overly impressed with their slaughter of I-AA foes. I take Wake to win outright. Once FSU has their players back, they're the better team, but not Saturday.

BCS eliminator #3
#20 Utah (3-0) at Air Force (3-0) - I ranked Air Force pretty low this year and they're proving me wrong. I credit this to their coach Troy Calhoun who lost a lot of players off last year's turnaround squad. But their faint BCS-busting hopes should come to and end Saturday so that Utah's can continue. The Utes are 7 1/2 point favorites.

BCS eliminator #4
Ball State (3-0) at Indiana (2-0) - Yes, Ball State is another team with BCS potential. And get this: Indiana is their toughest hurdle left. There's a reason the Hoosiers are only 3 point favorites at home; this game's a tossup. I think Indiana will pull out a close one, but I'm rooting for Ball State because, well how can you not root for Ball State to go undefeated? It will give the ACC champ hope of winning their bowl game this year.

BCS eliminator #5
Troy (2-0) at #16 Ohio State (2-1) - Troy has to beat Ohio State and LSU if they want to go undefeated. If they do that, not only would they be in a BCS bowl, but they'd probably play for the championship. The odds of them winning both games are very low of course. This is also the BCS title game eliminator for Ohio State, since some people think USC thrashing them didn't kill that zombie dead enough. OSU is a pretty wild 21 point favorite; that's what I'd have expected had Ohio State defeated USC. I'd take Troy to cover.

Heisman Top 25 - week 3

Not a lot happened this week in the Heisman race, mostly because many of the top contestants didn't play. Tim Tebow seems like he's disappeared from the college football world, but he'll be back. Maybe not fast enough to hold off Chase Daniel, who had another stellar game against a less-than-stellar defense. Daniel is most people's leader at this time, and he's certainly closing in on becoming my favorite. Knowshon Moreno moves up a spot, but that's really just Beanie Wells falling a notch. Wells didn't play against USC, and it showed; his only saving grace is that if he comes back strong—and the Buckeyes with him—it will create a big impression of how important he is to them. Probably not enough of an impression for him to win the award, though. On the flip side, Mark Sanchez had a good game with 4 TD passes and moves from #6 to #5, but he has the opposite problem: people think USC is so good that Sanchez is just one of 22 cogs that makes them run seamlessly. He'll continue to move up but can he pass Daniel and Tebow, both of whom are thought to be their team's engine?

Sliding down one is Pat White, another idle candidate. People are counting him out completely already, but he will have his Heisman moments. Sam Bradford had many such moments against Washington but will have a tough time surpassing all of the upperclassman QBs. Michael Crabtree's stats are finally looking Crabtree-esque, but so are Jeremy Maclin's, and he returns kicks as well. Likewise Graham Harrell finally had a Harrell-esque game, but his overall stats are not that great for the competition he's faced. The real breakthrough performance this week was by Max Hall, who leaps from #17 to #11 after a 7 TD effort against UCLA. The question is can he maintain his level of play. The easy answer is: yes, because the competition will get easier against conference foes. But is the Mountain West really easier than the two Pac-10 teams BYU just beat?

1. (1) Tim Tebow, Florida - idle last weekend
    9-14 64% 137yd 1TD 0int; 9rsh 37yd 4.1av 0fmb (Hawaii 56-10)
   21-35 60% 256yd 2TD 0int;13rsh 55yd 4.2av 0fmb (Miami 26-3)
   30-49 61% 393yd 3TD 0int;22rsh 92yd 4.2av 0fmb
   
2. (2) Chase Daniel, Missouri
   26-45 58% 359yd  3TD 1int; 9rsh 46yd 5.1av 0TD 0fmb (=ILL 52-42)
   16-17 94% 245yd  3TD 0int; 0rsh  0yd 0.0av 0TD 0fmb (SE MoSt 52-3)
   23-28 82% 405yd  4TD 0int; 1rsh 12yd 12 av 0TD 0fmb (Nevada 69-17)
   65-90 72% 973yd 10TD 1int;10rsh 58yd 5.8av 0TD 0fmb
   
3. (4) Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
    8rsh  59yd 7.4av 3TD 0fmb; 2rec 53yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (Ga.S 45-21)
   18rsh 168yd 9.3av 3TD 0fmb; 3rec 30yd 0TD; 0 rtYd (C Mich 56-17)
   20rsh  79yd 4.0av 1TD 0fmb; 2rec 13yd 0TD;32 rtYd (@SCaro 14-7)
   46rsh 306yd 6.7av 7TD 0fmb; 7rec 96yd 0TD;32 rtYd
   
4. (3) Chris Wells, Ohio State: did not play (L to USC 35-3)
   season: 13rsh 111yd 8.5av 1TD 1fmb; 3rec 10yd
   
5. (6) Mark Sanchez, USC: 17-28 61% 4TD 1int; 2rsh -10yd -5av 0TD 0fmb (OSU 35-3)
   season: 43-63 68% 510yds 7TD 2 int; 3rsh -4yd -1.3av 0TD 0fmb
6. (5) Patrick White, WVA: idle last weekend
   season: 36-51 71% 280yd 5TD 1int; 29rsh 160yd 5.5 ave 0TD 1fmb
7. (7) Sam Bradford, Oklahoma: 18-21 83% 304yd 5TD 0int; 1rsh 1yd 1TD 0fmb (@Wash 55-14)
   season: 64-81 79% 882yd 12TD 2int; 4rsh 4yd 1.0av 1TD 0fmb
   
8. (8) Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech: 8rec 164yd 3TD; 1rsh 3yd 0TD 0fmb (SMU 43-7)
   season: 24rec 395yd 5TD; 1rsh 1yd 1.0av 0TD 0fmb
9. (10) Jeremy Maclin, MO: 6rec 172yd 3TD; 2rsh 5yd 2.5av 0TD 0fmb; 62 rtYd (Nevada 69-17)
   season: 12rec 223yd 4TD; 6rsh 18yd 3.0av 0TD 0fmb; 297 rtYd 1TD
10. (9) Graham Harrell, T. Tech: 31-48 65% 418yd 5TD 0int; 3rsh -7yd -2.3av 1fmb (SMU 43-7)
    season: 93-152 61% 1251yd 8TD 3int; 7rsh -7yd -1av 1TD 1fmb
11. (17) Max Hall, BYU: 91-117 78% 1095yd 12TD 2int; 6rsh 16yd 2.7ave 2fmb
12. (12) P.J. Hill, Wisconsin: 70rsh 379yds 5.4ave 4TD 1fmb
13. (13) Matt Stafford, Georgia: 46-74 62% 488yd 4TD 0 int; 13rsh 40yd 3.1av 0TD 0fmb
14. (14) Colt McCoy, Texas: 44-58 76% 504yd 7TD 1int; 17rsh 111yd 6.5ave 1TD 0fmb
15. (15) Juice Williams, Illinois: 55-92 60% 575yd 7TD 5int; 46rsh 219yd 4.8ave 2TD 1fmb 
16. (16) Shun White, Navy: 47rsh 588yds 12.5ave 4TD 0fmb; 2rec 36yd 0TD
17. (22) Patrick Pinkney, E. Carolina: 63-83 76% 707yd 4TD 1int; 26rsh 34yd 1.3av 1TD 1fmb
18. (19) Jahvid Best, Cal: 48rsh 336yd 7.0av 4TD 0fmb; 11rec 130yd 0TD; 238 rtYd
19. (25) Louie Sakoda, Utah: 7 of 7 FGs; 14 of 15 PATs; 10 punts, 46.9av; 1-1 pass 9yd
20. (20) Percy Harvin, Florida: 5rsh 27yd 1TD 0fmb; 1rec 12yd 0TD
21. (new) Rey Maualuga, USC: 7 tackles (4 solo); 1 INT 1 TD
22. (11) James Laurinaitis, Ohio State: 23 tackles (10 solo); 1 INT
23. (23) Cullen Harper, Clemson: 54-80 68% 642yd 3TD 2int; 8rsh 5yd 0.6av 0TD 1fmb
24. (new) Javon Ringer, Mich. St: 104rsh 498yd 4.8av 9TD 1fmb; 3rec 37yd 0TD;178 rtYd
25. (24) Armanti Edwards, App. St: 16-39 41% 200yd 1TD 1int; 20rsh 100yd 5.0ave

Others: Donald Brown, Connecticut; Brandon Tate, North Carolina; Dante Love, Ball State; Matt Grothe, USF; Todd Reesing, Kansas; David Johnson, Tulsa; Rudy Carpenter, ASU.

P.J. Hill had a decent outing and Wisconsin stayed unbeaten, so he holds at #12. Matt Stafford didn't do all that well against South Carolina, and really his stats are inferior to Colt McCoy's, but McCoy's game was postponed so he missed a chance to get some traction. Like Juice Williams, who had a bland performance last week, I left them at the same spot until they break one way or another.

Navy's Shun White had another 100+ yard game, and while the luster is off his 348 yard opener, he still is averaging double figures per carry. Patrick Pinkney helped save the day for East Carolina and leaps to #17. Jahvid Best had a mixed outing: only 25 yards rushing, but 65 receiving yards and 135 return yards in Cal's loss; this certainly keeps him ahead of fellow all-purpose threat Percy Harvin, who claims Florida is ready to "unleash" him after an idle week.

Louie Sakoda has been my token special teams player, and almost fell out last week. But this week the Utah kicker made 3 of 3 field goals, 7 of 7 extra points, and even converted a 9 yard pass on a fake punt. He moves up to #19 and should remain my token special teams player for at least a few more weeks.

Entering the top 25 is USC linebacker Rey Maualuga. He only has 7 tackles so far, but that interception return, coupled with USC's domination of Ohio State, moves him ahead of James Laurinaitis for token defensive player on the list. Javon Ringer enters at #24 after his 282 yard spree vs. Florida Atlantic. Cullen Harper had a dull game against one of the easier teams on Clemson's schedule and really should fall off the list soon. Armanti Edwards didn't play this week, but unless he improves his stats he won't even be included as the token I-AA player.

Others waiting to get on the list, or get back in, include Donald Brown of Connecticut, who is just waiting to be recognized by someone as the best back in college football. He's certainly the most consistent so far of the top rushers. Brandon Tate had another good all-purpose performance, and Dante Love is now #1 in receiving yards per game. Matt Grothe was probably outdueled by Todd Reesing, but Grothe got the win and Reesing suffered the interception that led to his team's loss and falls out of the top 25 for now. Rudy Carpenter also played well but his heavily-favored team lost to UNLV.

Ohio State will NOT play for the national championship!

The latest talk is that somehow the Ohio State Buckeyes, despite being roguered 35-3 by USC, will end up playing for the national championship.

One theory is that voters will see how good they are with Beanie Wells back and decide they deserve a shot. Another scenario states that the BCS is so screwed up that it will just put OSU in the championship game.

Well I hate to tell you (no...actually I'm happy to tell you), it's just not going to happen.

Of course the BCS system is screwy; everyone knows that, even those who think a playoff is a stupid idea. But just because a system is screwy doesn't mean that it is forced to lead to a screwy result. No one voting in the Harris poll will want to see Ohio State in the title game. No one. So if there is ANY team as an alternative, they will get the nod.

First we are assuming, of course, that the Buckeyes sweep the Big Ten, which is no longer a given due to their performance Saturday, but let's say that Beanie Wells pushes them to an 11-1 record. Then we assume that no other team (than the Trojans) goes undefeated, another questionable assumption (remember, last year was a huge anomaly).

Even if this happens, any one-loss team from the SEC or Big Twelve will be ahead of the Buckeyes, no question. Even the faltering ACC and Big East would provide a champion 1-loss team. Right now Ohio State is 13th in the AP poll, 14th in USA. But there are teams behind them who will pass the Buckeyes if that's what it takes to prevent them from finishing #2.

In fact, this is a great year to be a BCS-buster team, because your school has a much greater chance than ever to play for the title. The Mountain West has a good shot of producing not only a BCS bowl team, but a national title contender, thanks to Ohio State. It works like this: let's say the SEC and Big 12 are both so tough that every team in the league finishes with two losses. Very unlikely, but it essentially happened last season. If Utah or BYU ends the season undefeated, they'd have a great argument—unlike Hawaii last year—to play for all the marbles.

East Carolina would also have a good argument if West Virginia and Virginia Tech recover and win their conferences. An undefeated Boise State (if they upset Oregon) and TCU (has to beat Oklahoma, Utah, BYU) wouldn't be relegated to a minor bowl if there weren't alternatives.

So while an Ohio State-USC rematch will NOT happen in the BCS title game, there really is a decent chance of a rematch—in the Rose Bowl.

No one's even considering the possibility of USC losing, but if they do—say, to Oregon, and Oregon runs the table and goes to the BCS title game—then USC will have to settle for the Rose Bowl. And who will they face? Well, if Beanie comes through and the Big Ten is like butter to OSU's knife again, it will be Ohio State. In Pasedena. After settling matters at 35-3 just months earlier.

This is the real problem with the BCS. Not the title game, not the lack of a playoff. The problem is in the crappy matchups in the other major bowls. There is no chance, for example, for the ACC and Big East champions to meet in a bowl. Or the Big 12 and SEC champs. No champion of BCS Conference A shall meet the champion of BCS Conference B unless: 1) They meet in the championship game, or 2) The conferences are the Big 10 and Pac-10.

To be fair, even before the BCS existed, the Rose Bowl sometimes had repeat performances. In 1975, the Bucks won at UCLA 41-20 en route to an 11-0 record...then lost in the Rose Bowl, 23-10, to UCLA. The problem this year is not the BCS system, but the Rose Bowl auto-pairing, something that's been a tradition in football for quite some time.

But the facts remain. Ohio State WILL NOT PLAY for the national title, because the voters will not allow it, as there WILL be a viable alternative team. But the Buckeyes very well could play USC again in the Rose Bowl. This outcome is far more likely than the Bucks-in-the-title-game conspiracy theory floating around sports sites lately.

Here it comes again: "Best USC team ever" talk

It's started already. It's even being declared as a certainty. But we've heard talk like this before and it usually precedes an unexpected Trojan loss.

Does talk like this get into the players' heads? This year, given the dismal state of the Pac-10, overconfidence may be USC's biggest remaining pitfall.

How soon they forget Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush, and LenDale White. Mark Sanchez, Joe McKnight, and C.J. Gable are good, but let's see how they finish the season before anointing them better than the best team of the decade. My column from almost exactly one year ago today still stands; just change the names of a few of the competitors.

Top Ten (ok, nine) BCS busters

Utah, Boise State, and Hawaii have done it in recent years—so who is the most likely team from a non-major conference to go undefeated and reach a BCS bowl? I look at the current top ten.

Here's how the list looked at the beginning of the season:

1. Utah - Top 25 quality team, easy schedule, plays BYU at home
2. BYU - Same as above, but play the Utes on the road
3. Boise State - Has a few non-conference roadblocks, Fresno State at home
4. Fresno State - Has a few non-conference roadblocks, Boise on the road
5. Ball State - Indiana is toughest team on schedule
6. Tulsa - Just has to get past Arkansas
7. UCF - Plays South Florida early; East Carolina at home
8. East Carolina - Tough early schedule includes West Virginia; later UCF on road
9. Texas Christian - Utah, BYU, and Oklahoma loom large
10. Troy - Plays LSU and Ohio State, or would be a favorite

Since then only two of those teams have lost: Fresno State to Wisconsin last weekend, and Central Florida in overtime to USF. More remarkably, the majority passed some tough tests: East Carolina beat Virginia Tech and West Virginia, Utah beat Michigan, and BYU beat the two Pac-10 teams on their slate. But almost all the potential candidates not on the list have lost, leaving only nine candidates total. Here's how the list looks now:

1. Utah: The win over Michigan was their first hurdle. The next big one isn't until BYU, but they can't let down against teams like TCU, who is also still in the hunt. But their toughest challenges are all at home from here on out. Pitfalls: Oregon State, TCU, BYU.
2. BYU: The Cougars almost blew it against Washington, but came back so strong against UCLA that they look like the best non-BCS team overall. The problem is the road game against Utah. Note that the Washington game was a road game, while UCLA was at home; this suggests BYU is a great home team but vulnerable on the road, giving the advantage to Utah. Pitfalls: @TCU, @Utah
3. East Carolina: Passed their toughest tests with flying colors, and even averted the letdown loss last weekend. Still have several tests, and while some are looking less daunting now, all are on the road. Pitfalls: @Virginia, @Southern Miss, @UCF, C-USA championship game.
4. Boise State: Next weekend will determine their fate. The Broncos play at Oregon, and if they win they have clear sailing until meeting Fresno State at home for the WAC title. Pitfalls: @Oregon, Fresno State.
5. Ball State: If they can beat Indiana on the road Saturday, the Cardinals have an excellent shot of going undefeated. Pitfalls: @Indiana, @Central Michigan, MAC championship game.
6. Tulsa: The good news is that their toughest game, against Arkansas, looks a lot easier as the Razorbacks are struggling even more than expected. The bad news is the emergence of East Carolina as a true power. The Pirates aren't on their schedule, but Tulsa would face them in the C-USA championship game. Pitfalls: @Arkansas, C-USA championship game
7. Texas Christian: Doing well so far, but still has three daunting tests. Pitfalls: @Oklahoma, BYU, @Utah.
8. Troy: Dodged one bullet so far when the LSU game was postponed. So they'll face Ohio State first. Pitfalls: @Ohio State, @LSU, @Oklahoma State, @Florida Atlantic
9. Air Force: Frankly I expected the Falcons to be 1-2 at this point, but they've gone 3-0, which I think is a nod to their coach. The road ahead is pretty tough, running through three of the other candidates ahead of them on the list. Pitfalls: Utah, @UNLV, New Mexico, BYU, @TCU.

Lineal Top 25 update

I guess I'll update the Lineal Top 25 after a few weeks of letting it slide.

If you recall, when we last saw the Lineal Top 25 at the end of last season, Missouri was #1. They took the title from Arkansas, who took it from LSU, who won it from Auburn, who took it from Florida, all last season. Florida took the title from Ohio State in the national championship game for the 2006 season. The Buckeyes took it from Texas who took it from USC who held it for a long, long time previous to that. Now the Trojans beat Ohio State, but don't get their title back just yet.

Here is the current state of the Lineal Top 25, where winners jump a spot ahead of losers:

Week 3 (games thru 9/14/2008)
lw  new Team                    rec  last week's result
1    1. Missouri                3-0
2    2. Arkansas                2-0
3    3. LSU                     2-0
4    4. Georgia                 3-0
5    5. Auburn                  3-0
6    6. Utah                    3-0
--   7. Notre Dame              2-0  Beat #7 Michigan
7    8. Michigan                1-2  Lost to Notre Dame
8    9. Florida                 2-0
--  10. South Florida           3-0  Beat #8 Kansas
9   11. Kansas                  2-1  Lost to USF
10  12. Louisiana Tech          1-1
11  13. Mississippi State       1-2  Lost to #5 Auburn
--  14. Maryland                2-1  Beat #12 Cal
12  15. California              2-1  Lost to Maryland
13  16. Tennessee               1-1
14  17. Kentucky                3-0
15  18. Southern Cal            2-0  Beat #17 OSU
16  19. Illinois                2-1
17  20. Ohio State              2-1  Lost to #15 USC
18  21. Minnesota               3-0
--  22. Boise State             2-0  Beat #19 Bowling Green
19  23. Bowling Green           1-2  Lost to Boise State
20  24. Pittsburgh              1-1
21  25. East Carolina           3-0

out:
22  --  West Virginia           1-1
23  --  Oklahoma                3-0
24  --  Cincinnati              1-1
25  --  Wake Forest             2-0

The all-important USC-Ohio State game, you'll see, didn't change anything. Even if the Buckeyes would have won, it would hardly have done anything; Ohio State still would have slipped a spot, the Trojans one more place. The most important game was the Irish beating Michigan and jumping in at #7. The Wolverines, if you recall, jumped into the top ten by beating Florida last season in the Capital One bowl.

South Florida's win over Kansas puts the Bulls back in the top ten, one week after they slipped out of the top 25. Auburn's win over Mississippi State changes nothing, but Maryland and Boise State pop in for their wins over Cal and Bowling Green respectively (Bowling Green beat Pitt who beat West Virginia last season).

West Virginia, Oklahoma, Cincinnati, and Wake Forest slide out. The fact that they were idle has little to do with falling out of the poll, as you have to keep beating higher-ups to stay in.

Three videos of Charlie Weis' ACL/MCL injury

As you probably know, Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis injured his ACL and MCL during Saturday's win over Michigan. You might not have seen all the angles of the footage, some of which is pretty shocking. Here's the footage you probably saw:

Here's an angle you probably haven't seen:

And yet another view:

Three weeks in, power ratings don't make sense; blame scheduling

Back in the good old days of the 11-game schedule, after three weeks power ratings started to make some basic sense. There were still a few offbeat results, but most fell in line with expectations, and there were a few revealing insights to be gained.

No more. Now that there are 12 games, almost every I-A team is scheduling a I-AA team along with a cupcake I-A school, so after three weeks there isn't much to go by. Take Florida State. Can we make any sense of their two blowouts of I-AA teams? With many teams only playing two games so far, one against a I-AA, we'll have to wait until next week to see enough connections made to have a decent output.

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Georgia Tech                (2-1)   61.07 [ 1]  60.08 [ 1]   0.99 [48]
  2. East Carolina               (3-0)   60.74 [ 2]  56.20 [ 2]   4.53 [ 2]
  3. Virginia Tech               (2-1)   55.13 [ 3]  53.63 [ 3]   1.49 [36]
  4. Boston College              (1-1)   53.03 [ 5]  52.57 [ 4]   0.46 [72]
  5. Iowa                        (3-0)   53.49 [ 4]  50.26 [ 5]   3.23 [16]
  6. Oklahoma                    (3-0)   52.27 [ 6]  49.75 [ 6]   2.52 [25]
  7. Alabama                     (3-0)   50.96 [ 7]  47.39 [ 7]   3.56 [ 9]
  8. Kansas                      (2-1)   44.31 [ 8]  43.20 [ 8]   1.11 [46]
  9. Tulane                      (0-2)   41.17 [12]  42.77 [ 9]  -1.59 [104]
 10. Iowa St                     (2-1)   43.56 [ 9]  42.65 [10]   0.90 [55]

For now, here's what's going on. Georgia Tech, at 2-1, is on top of the Strength ratings (formerly called Points). Why? For one thing, home field advantage still rates at almost 7 points (cupcakes play on the road) as opposed to the 3.5 or so that the margin will converge to later in the season. And Tech lost a close road game to Virginia Tech, who lost a close one to #2 East Carolina. These particular teams just happened to bubble to the top for reasons that could almost be called chaos theory. For example, USC doesn't rank high because their victims, Virginia and Ohio State, instead got pushed very low on the totem pole.

  #  Team                         rec    Overall     Strength     Success
  1. Auburn                      (3-0)   40.31 [13]  35.40 [13]   4.90 [ 1]
  2. East Carolina               (3-0)   60.74 [ 2]  56.20 [ 2]   4.53 [ 2]
  3. Utah                        (3-0)   31.90 [20]  27.44 [21]   4.45 [ 3]
  4. Nebraska                    (3-0)   19.73 [37]  15.48 [42]   4.24 [ 4]
  5. Vanderbilt                  (3-0)   22.63 [34]  18.60 [36]   4.02 [ 5]
  6. South Florida               (3-0)   43.23 [10]  39.22 [12]   4.01 [ 6]
  7. Wisconsin                   (3-0)   17.59 [41]  13.71 [43]   3.87 [ 7]
  8. Kentucky                    (3-0)    4.44 [62]   0.57 [71]   3.87 [ 8]
  9. Alabama                     (3-0)   50.96 [ 7]  47.39 [ 7]   3.56 [ 9]
 10. Georgia                     (3-0)   33.68 [17]  30.18 [18]   3.50 [10]

The Success ratings (formerly called Win/Loss, which doesn't consider score margin) aren't any better yet. Auburn isn't penalized for beating Mississippi State by a score of 3 to 2, but there's no major reason their schedule should be considered the most impressive. They have played three I-A teams, a rarity so far. Most of the other teams in the top ten fit this criteria, too.

The bottom line is, with the schedule played so far, there isn't enough good comparitive performance on which to judge the teams using no pre-conceived notions. That is, without looking at how good the teams were last season. Since these ratings use this season's data only, the entire picture is very fuzzy. East Carolina's high ranking might make it seem that things are starting to make sense, but that's  just a fluke at this point given the other discrepancies. It's the power rating equivalent of the VCR clock being right twice a day.

Next week, when every team will have played three games, and almost all will have had two I-A opponents, and several postponed games are made up, things will start to be clearer. At that point some insights can be drawn and perhaps a rough pecking order can be established. But it will really take until week 5 until the ratings are solid.

SportsRatings College Football Top 25 - week 3: Oklahoma #1, USC #3

The big game is over, the smoke has cleared, and there is a new number one. But although USC crushed Ohio State 35-3, I didn't move them quite up to #1. They clearly demonstrated that they belong among the very top teams, but I was just as disappointed in Ohio State's performance as I was impressed by USC. So Oklahoma has the top spot for now; the Sooners crushed a Washington team that gave BYU fits. I think that any team that emerges from the SEC or Big Twelve undefeated—conference championship and all—deserves a top ranking more than a Pac-10 team that does the same. Thus idle Florida remains 2nd until proven otherwise, Southern Cal launches to #3, and South Florida of the Big East (another questionable conference) remains fourth. USF beat Kansas on Friday night, but their 3-point home win was far less impressive than USC's 31-point slaughter. Still, they hold solidly at #4, far ahead of #5 Texas Tech, who did better against SMU but has not looked like a top five team.

Missouri holds at #6 after an easy win, while Georgia, who almost lost to South Carolina, moves up a notch to #7, as the Gamecocks were still a top 25 team last week. #8 LSU leapfrogs Oregon; although they've only beaten a I-AA team and North Texas, they beat Appalachian State soundly and the Ducks very nearly lost to Purdue. Though the Boilermakers may prove to be a good team, Oregon holds at #9 for now. Idle Texas moves up to #10, so there are still four Big Twelve teams in the top ten.

SportsRatings Top 25 - Week 3 (9/14/2008)
lw	#	Team	Rec	Big wins/losses
3	1.	Oklahoma	3-0	wCincinnati 52-26
2	2.	Florida	2-0
12	3.	Southern Cal	2-0	wOhioState 35-3
4	4.	South Florida	3-0	wKansas 37-34
5	5.	Texas Tech	3-0
6	6.	Missouri	3-0
8	7.	Georgia	3-0	w@SCarolina 14-7
10	8.	LSU	2-0
9	9.	Oregon	3-0
11	10.	Texas	2-0
14	11.	Penn State	3-0
15	12.	Alabama	3-0	w=Clemson 34-10
13	13.	Auburn	3-0
7	14.	Kansas	2-1	L@USF 37-34
21	15.	Brigham Young	3-0	wUCLA 59-0
1	16.	Ohio State	2-1	L@USC 35-3
17	17.	East Carolina	3-0	wWVirginia 24-3
18	18.	Vanderbilt	3-0	wSCarolina 24-17
19	19.	Connecticut	3-0
20	20.	Utah	3-0	wUNLV 42-21
23	21.	Cincinnati	1-1	L@Oklahoma 52-26
24	22.	Clemson	2-1	L=Alabama 34-10
25t	23.	West Virginia	1-1	L@ECarolina 24-3
--	24.	UNLV	2-1	L@Utah42-21;w@ASU23-20ot
16	25.	Arizona St	2-1	L UNLV 23-20ot
		out:
22	--	UCLA	1-1	L@BYU 59-0
25t	--	South Carolina	1-2	L@Vandy24-17;L GA14-7

Penn State and Alabama each jump three spots to #11 and #12. The Nittany Lions have notched solid wins over poor foes, while Alabama is 3-0 and had the win over Clemson under its belt. Auburn remains stuck at #13 after beating Mississippi State just 3-2.

Kansas and Ohio State fell out of the top ten, the latter falling much farther, all the way from #1 to #16. Their offense looked hopeless with Beanie Wells' absence, and the rushing defense didn't do very well either. Overall they proved the skeptics correct with yet another crushing loss to a top team. BYU, on the other hand, showed how good they can be by blasting former #22 UCLA 59-0; they jump from #21 to #15. The Jayhawks almost beat USF on the road and remains in position to move back up if they can score some quality Big 12 wins.

East Carolina, Vanderbilt, UConn, and Utah held steady in the next four spots. The Pirates had to make a comeback against lowly Tulane, but they were due for a letdown and have a healthy résumé; close calls are ultimately excused, as long as you win. Vandy's marquee win fades away as South Carolina exits the rankings, but the Commodores will remain as long as they keep winning. Connecticut holds at #19, with this week's win over Virginia offsetting their poor Temple performance last week. Former losers Cincinnati, Clemson, and West Virginia each slide up a few notches.

Arizona State's loss to UNLV was a huge upset, but I kept the Sun Devils at #25; they play Georgia next weekend, so either they will prove they still belong or they'll drop out. This means that UNLV has to move in at #24. Despite their 2-10 record last year, I felt they deserve a moment in the spotlight for their gutsy road victory. Also, their only loss is to #20 Utah, so there's nothing in their record so far that proves they aren't a top 25 team. As long as they win, they'll stay in—they face BYU in a few weeks, so they'll have to prove it just like ASU.

UCLA and South Carolina fall out this week; the Bruins after being destroyed 59-0, and South Carolina after suffering their 2nd loss.

Despite monster on top, Pac-10 one of the worst BCS conferences in '08

USC's domination of Ohio State will get all the headlines, but the Pac-10 as a whole had a decidedly mixed performance this weekend, and beyond the marquee game the results were rather dismal.

USC 35, Ohio State 3 - Clearly USC is one of the best teams in the nation, if not the best; this win is far more impressive than last year's Nebraska victory which had pundits (very prematurely) calling the Trojans the best team ever. It showed that the very top of the Pac-10 is far better than the top of the Big Ten, certainly.

Oregon 32, Purdue 26 (double overtime) - Oregon may be the conference's 2nd best team, but they struggled (and got lucky) to beat a middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team. Perhaps Oregon isn't a top Pac-10 team, and Purdue is among the best Big Ten teams; we don't know yet. Either way, this game demonstrated that there's a lot of parity between the leagues once you get past the top team.

Maryland 35, Cal 27 - Cal was supposed to be the Pac-10's breakthrough team, having just joined the Top 25 after crushing Washington State 66-3. Instead a down-and-out ACC team controlled them and won more easily than the score indicates. So who is the Pac-10's third best team?

UNLV 23, Arizona State 20 (overtime) - Not the Sun Devils, anymore. The Runnin' Rebels were 2-10 last year and 22 1/2 point underdogs but stayed close enough to tie the game at the end and get the overtime victory in a major upset.

New Mexico 36, Arizona 28 - The other Arizona team didn't fare any better. The Wildcats' first two games were very promising, suggesting they were yet another Top 25 team from the conference, but now that—along with the program's turnaround—is in doubt. New Mexico got their first win while handing Arizona their first loss.

BYU 59, UCLA 0 - The Bruins were another potential Top 25 team, having defeated Tennessee two weeks ago. But this performance removed all doubt as to whether that was a fluke. UCLA is probably no better than Washington, who put up a good fight against these same Cougars.

Oklahoma 55, Washington 14 - While the Huskies nearly upset BYU, they were hapless against the Sooners in their third loss to a ranked team already this year. I'm starting to think that someone in the scheduling department doesn't want to see Ty Willingham stick around even to mid-season.

Oregon State 45, Hawaii 7 - The one other bright spot this week for the conference, the Beavers dominated the Warriors just like Florida did. But last week's Penn State loss (and the previous one to Stanford) eliminates any discussion of Oregon State as a strong team.

TCU 31, Stanford 14 - This was another disappointment for the Pac-10. Stanford is attempting a turnaround and a win would have pointed firmly in that direction. Instead they remain one of the bottom few teams in the conference.

Baylor 45, Washington State 17 - But Stanford isn't the bottom team. That designation goes to the Washington State Cougars, who were blown out by Big Twelve doormat Baylor Friday night. Along with the 66-3 loss to Cal and 39-13 loss to Oklahoma State—both at home—it's clear that there is a true cupcake in the conference—one that perhaps rivals Syracuse for the worst team in a BCS league.

Overall not a very good week for the Pac-10. The conference might have the nation's best team and no other Top 25 squads. For now I'm assuming Oregon is also good, and that Arizona State might recover. Cal and Arizona still could have good years. UCLA is very questionable now and is probably worse than Washington, while Stanford, Oregon State, and particularly Washington State have proven themselves as walkovers. The league as a whole might be worse than the Big Ten, and only better than the ACC and Big East because of USC's presence.

People have complained (and rightly so) about the Buckeyes running the table against a weak Big Ten; what if USC does the same against an even weaker Pac-10, while claiming a win over a Big Ten team as their pivotal victory? For my money, a team that emerges from the SEC or Big Twelve undefeated, and also has to win the conference championship game, has more credence as a national title contender.

ESPN360 still sucks ass

For a service that's several years old, ESPN360 surprisingly  has no technical solution for a game that runs a bit long. Today's Maryland-Cal game was just getting good, Cal knocking on the door with 2 minutes left, when the broadcast expired—it simply ran out of time. After a few minutes, the broadcast recovered, but by then Cal had scored a touchdown and failed on their onside kick and the game was over.

At least it's better than what used to happen: the game would die and never come back. Still, ESPN has got to realize that this issue is most likely to occur AT THE END OF THE FUCKING GAME WHEN THINGS ARE GETTING INTERESTING.

Of course without ESPN360 I wouldn't have been able to watch any of the Cal-Maryland game. But I also have to sit through 3,000 screenings of the 3 or 4 commercials they constantly run, too. For that alone they should have pity on me and find some way to seamlessly make the game run until the end, instead of cutting out when the allotted time slot is filled.

Not only that, but it looks like Purdue-Oregon is blacked out. Well I guess there's always Penn State-Syracuse. Not.