SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #91 to #95. To see the full list, click here.
| 91. Navy Midshipmen |
2007 Results Record: 8-5 Bowl: L to Utah, 35-32 (Poinsettia Bowl) Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #68 Success: #57 Combined: #67
Navy coach Paul Johnson left for Georgia Tech, but that's not the problem—it's the raw number of players who have moved on that will make this season a challenge for new head coach Ken Niumatalolo.
Offense (4 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #13 Adj. Rush Yards: #1 Adj. Pass Yards: #120
This Navy travels by land almost exclusively. The Midshipmen had seven players who rushed for more than 450 yards, and four of them are back, including the top two, QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada (952 yds. passing, 8 TDs) and fullback Eric Kettani. But they lose both starting slotbacks, including Reggie Campbell, an all-time great at the position. Softening the blow is senior Shun White, who has averaged almost 10 yards a carry in his career. But the offensive line will be less dominant this year; which is to say, they might not finish #1 in NCAA rushing yards for the first time in four years (though they probably will, once again).
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #112 Adj. Rush Def: #102 Adj. Pass Def: #112
If the offense loses a step, the defense should improve, but that's almost a given considering where they start from. Navy returns two full-time starters on the front three, and several part-time or 2006 starters at linebacker to help offset the loss of leading tackler Irv Spencer. But the biggest improvement looks to be in the secondary, with senior Rashawn King and sophomore Wyatt Middleton leading a very experienced group.
Kicking Game (0.5 RS): Matt Harmon is back at kicker; though he wasn't the full-time kicker, he did about 30% of the work, hence he counts as 1/2 a starter. He was 6 of 10 in field goals, 15 of 15 on extra points. The Mids need a new punter, and finding one to match last year's average (37.3) shouldn't be impossible. Kyle Delahooke
Recruiting: Navy's football recruiting is often near the bottom, and the last two years are no exception. It's more important that recruits fit within the option system, and players work their way up the chain fairly methodically, and stay more often to graduation. Thus, the starting lineups are filled with seniors and juniors, and the occasional sophomore, while freshman play on the junior varsity team.
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2008 Season Outlook Last season looked like this: beat Temple, lost to Rutgers, oh well, damn, overtime loss to Ball State...beat Duke, BEAT AIR FORCE!..beat Pitt in overtime! Lost to Wake Forest...lost to Delaware? OMG WE BEAT NOTRE DAME IN OVERTIME FIRST WIN IN 4 DECADES!!!!!...beat North Texas, Beat Northern Illinois..BEAT ARMY! Lost to Utah in Poinsettia Bowl.
This year doesn't look quite as great. Despite playing Notre Dame at home, they're unlikely to replicate last year's feat. And after an almost-gimme against I-A Towson, it gets tough for a couple of months, with four road games and home games against Rutgers and Pitt.
The last five games are also potential wins, and I have Navy getting four of them—assuming they aren't disheartened by how the season is going so far. SMU and Army are their biggest "guarantees" in this stretch. With all the other win possibilities, they could easily go 6-6 and be back in a bowl game, repeating last season's 8-4 would be a surprise.
| 92. Toledo Rockets |
2007 Results Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #99 Success: #94 Combined: #99
Like the majority of MAC teams, Toledo is on the way up this season. But that means that most of their foes are better as well.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #52 Adj. Rush Yards: #38 Adj. Pass Yards: #61
It's a mixed bag for the Rockets as QB Aaron Opelt returns but RB Jalen Parmele (1,511 yards, 14 TDs) doesn't. Toledo could both run the ball and pass, but the run was more important to their fortunes, taking pressure off Opelt. Backup DaJuane Collins (636 yds, 7 TDs) should fill in adequately given three starters back on the O-line. With top receivers Nick Moore and Stephen Williams (1,900+ yds, 15 TDs combined) returning, I wouldn't say they won't miss a beat but they still should have good production.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #118 Adj. Rush Def: #119 Adj. Pass Def: #60
Improvement on this side of the ball, especially against the run, is critical for Toledo's success. Again the pass defense number is misleading here, since foes were able to pass their average amount on the Rockets on top of the huge running numbers they were putting up. Toledo returns the majority of their starting talent in each area: on the line, at linebacker, and in the secondary. Their biggest loss is Grey Hay at LB, but leading tackler Lester Richmond returns at the "Rover" position. The defense is in much better shape than last season, especially since there are essentially NO significant losses beyond the starting 11.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Losing punter Brett Kern is one of the biggest hits this team takes. Kern averaged a whopping 46.1 yards, netting nearly 40 yards. He'll be replaced by a redshirt freshman, and there is certain to be a dropoff. Kicker Alex Steigerwald returns, though, after making at 13 of his field goal attempts last season.
Recruiting: Toledo's last two classes were perhaps the best in the MAC, and three or four redshirt freshman are set to move into the starting lineup, along with punter Bill Claus.
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2008 Season Outlook The Rockets started 2007 with three losses where they averaged 23 points but the defense yielded 50. Their first win, a 1-point victory over Big 12's Iowa State, was impressive; their 2nd, a 1-point victory over I-AA Liberty, was not. The high-points pattern continued throughout the season, scoring 70 and 52 in beating Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan, and giving up 43 and 41 in losses to Buffalo and Ball State. With Opelt hurt they managed just 10 against Bowling Green in the season finale.
With a still-explosive offense and improved D, Toledo will be a better team. But so will almost all of their MAC brethren. Almost every MAC game Toledo's involved in is uncertain, especially the game at Akron. Two games at the end of the season are especially important; if Toledo is 2-8 going in, will the season collapse on them? Hopefully they can pick up one or two of the closer contests before then, and go in with bowl eligibility riding on the outcome of the last two games. The MAC is going to be wide open, depending on which way the ball bounces. I don't have Toledo in the top half of the MAC, but they're not far behind the leaders in quality, so just about anything could happen this year.
| 93. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks |
2007 Results Record: 6-6 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #87 Success: #81 Combined: #87
ULM is only slightly better than they were last year. Does this mean they can beat Auburn like they beat Alabama last season?
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #99 Adj. Rush Yards: #27 Adj. Pass Yards: #101
QB Kinsmon Lancaster returns along with his three favorite targets, and he'll need to up his production to offset the loss of 1,500 yard rusher Calvin Dawson (though Frank Goodin is a solid replacement). The O-line will be somewhat weaker but should be up to the job of defending Lancaster.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #72 Adj. Rush Def: #64 Adj. Pass Def: #104
The pass defense is what needs the most help. Free safety Greg James leads a group that returns three of five starters (if you count both the "BAN" and "ROV" as secondary in a 4-2-5). Both linebackers return including leading tackler Cardia Jackson (79, 2 more than James). And the front four should improve as well, returning three of four starters and filling up the remaining slot with JUCO transfers.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Scott Love returns to punt after netting 37.5 yards last season. New kicker Radi Jabour attempted one field goal last year, missed it, and redshirted for the rest of the season. He's known as a kicker with a long range.
Recruiting: Like most Sun Belt teams ULM's recruiting classes don't rank high, but Charlie Weatherbee will get good use out of some of the junior college transfers he picked up this year.
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2008 Season Outlook Last year's season was made by the Alabama upset. Before that, ULM was 4-6, a comeback in itself after starting 0-4, but another losing season was almost assured.
Instead, the team left Tuscaloosa with a win that would have been called the greatest of the NCAA season if not for all the other craziness that happened last year.
This year their non-conference schedule substitutes Auburn for Alabama, Tulane for Tulsa, and Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama A&M for Clemson, Texas A&M, and Grambling. The end result is about the same, barring any more crazy upsets: the Warhawks will be favored in five games, and considering all the close games, may repeat last year's 6-6 record without having to beat Auburn at all. They could beat Arkansas State on the road, for example, or Middle Tennessee State at home. And actually, Mississippi is the team scheduled on the same week as the Tide were last season, so watch out, Ole Miss.
| 94. Colorado State Rams |
2007 Results Record: 3-9 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #76 Success: #101 Combined: #77
The Rams were much better last year than their record indicated. Unfortunately, due mainly to losses on defense, they'll be about as good in '08 as they looked in '07.
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #71 Adj. Rush Yards: #42 Adj. Pass Yards: #56
It's hard to add up exactly how many starters the Rams return on offense, due to position switches and part-time starters and '06 returnees. But three things are certain: 1) Neither QB Caleb Hanie nor his three top receivers are back, 2) leading rushers Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell are, and 3) the offensive line is positively loaded with experience. This leads me to believe the run will be more central to the Rams success on offense this season. Bell, who ran for over 1,000 yards in 2005, was recently named the starter over Johnson.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #81 Adj. Rush Def: #76 Adj. Pass Def: #31
The Rams are settled at linebacker: Jeff Horinek, Ricky Brewer, and Jake Potoroff are the team's three leading returning tacklers. After that it gets a bit shaky. Both the front four and secondary have holes without a lot of experience to fill.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Decent kicker Jason Smith (33-33 PATs) returns and might also take over as punter to replace Jimmie Kaylor.
Recruiting: The Rams recruiting ranks in the 90s nationally, and may or may not improve under new head coach Steve Fairchild. Schools like Colorado State have one advantage in that they can pick up some pretty decent players in the summer that the bigger schools have passed on. The Rams got a late summer commit just a few weeks ago from WR Jyrone Hickman.
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2008 Season Outlook After closing 2006 with seven straight losses, the Rams opened 2007 with a six-game skid. But there was never any danger that they were going to go winless. They took Colorado into overtime, were within a touchdown of Cal, led Houston before losing, and had San Diego State dead to rights before the last minute. They went 3-3 over the last six games, winning the final two. Their final record, as well as being winless or having one win most of the season, tainted people's opinion of how good they really were. The Rams were mediocre, not execrable.
But their schedule got tougher, too, or rather the teams on it did. Facing both Utah and BYU this season will be no fun, and Cal is on the docket again. I favor them in two games, though the Houston game is very tight.
The good news is there are several close games they can win. Or lose, too; in fact the only 'certain' win is I-AA Sacramento State. Then there are five games that could go either way easily. I'd say the Rams, even though a lesser team, will match or improve their record in 2008.
| 95. Iowa State Cyclones |
2007 Results Record: 3-9 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #79 Success: #89 Combined: #79
Iowa State is the 2nd lowest ranked BCS conference team in the rankings. They had their good moments last season with a decent defense, and they return an average amount of starters. But a few key losses, and depletion of the 2nd and 3rd string, consigns them to another losing year.
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #96 Adj. Rush Yards: #84 Adj. Pass Yards: #79
Bret Meyer guided the Cyclones for four straight years, and considering the quality of the squads he was on, he did an admirable job. He developed good accuracy and could run the ball in a pinch. He's gone now, along with top target Todd Blythe, and the team will change. It's an opportunity for the running game, which returns the top three rushers from last year—assuming J.J. Bass is finally allowed to come back. The O-line is loaded and ready with four starters back. Change may be what the Cyclones need to get their offensive production up. But in terms of depth the offense has a big problem, with only 2 of 12 letterman back past the starting 11.
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #58 Adj. Rush Def: #41 Adj. Pass Def: #49
The secondary is unquestionably the best part of the defense. Already putting up a good fight by finishing in the top half of the nation in adjusted passing yards allowed, they should be excellent this year with four starters back at safety and corner. The rest of the defense is a mixed bag, losing LBs Alvin Bowen and Jon Banks, and two of the front four. Again, like the offense, the losses in the second string will test the 'Clones defense if injuries become an issue.
Kicking Game (1 RS): The kicking game wasn't a great area for ISU last season, despite beating rival Iowa with field goals only. Mike Brandtner returns at punter, with a nearly 40 yard average last season. Kicker Bret Culbertson was just 10 of 18 on field goals, 5 of 13 if you take away the Iowa game. The new kicker is true freshman Zach Guyer.
Recruiting: Coach Gene Chizik, in his second year at Iowa State, has recruited a couple of very average classes. For the Big 12, that probably won't get the job done, but it should help dig the Cyclones out of their current funk. In addition to punter Guyer, other prominent members of the last two classes include potential starters QB Philip Bates and offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele.
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2008 Season Outlook 2007 was an up and down year for the 'Clones. Or rather, a down and up and down and back up year.
The down: losing to Kent State, and worse yet, to Northern Iowa. The up: beating Iowa on a last-second field goal (and barely preventing the touchdown return on the ensuing kickoff).
Down again: Losing six straight, with the Big 12 contests not very competitive (except, shockingly, Oklahoma). And up again: Closing by winning two of three, by beating Kansas State and Colorado. Never mind the 45-7 drubbing KU put on them in the final week.
I don't expect so much drama this season. But wins could be just as hard to come by for the Cyclones. First of all, they picked the wrong Division I-AA team to play, again. Last season UNI was one of the best in the FCS, and South Dakota State ranked #88 last season among all 719 football teams in the season-ending Strength power rating. I'm using last season's numbers for them, but either way this game is no gimme.
The 'Clones get their opportunity for revenge on Kent State, but then Iowa get their chance in Iowa City. After that, it's onto the brutal Big 12, and ISU wastes their home field advantage on Kansas and Missouri, while they travel to play Baylor. They might be able to find wins to match the 4-8 cumulative odds, but I think they may struggle to reach last season's total.
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