Pre-season 120: #9 Georgia Bulldogs, #10 Oregon Ducks

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams #9 and #10. To see the full list, click here.

9. Georgia Bulldogs     (pre-season AP #1, USA/Coaches #1)

2007 Results:    Record: 11-2     Bowl: Beat Hawaii 41-10 (Sugar Bowl)   Poll finish: #2 AP #3 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #11    Success: #3    Combined: #9
Georgia begins the season #1 in both major polls. Are they as good as touted, and even if so, can they make it through the SEC relatively unscathed?
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #26   Adj. Rush Yards: #33  Adj. Pass Yards: #82
Knowshon Moreno was last year's revelation, coming on strong in the 2nd half of the season concurrent with Georgia beginning to dominate. He became the starter, finishing with 1,334 yards and 14 TDs. Moreno is back and is as much of a Heisman troophy candidate as a sophomore can be, which is to say he's likely shooting for 2nd place despite the precedent having been set. Some are touting junior QB Matthew Stafford for the same award; while he had a decent season last year (2,500 yards, 19 TDs) he would need to up his 55% completion rate and reduce his 10 INTs to be taken seriously, regardless of how Georgia does this year. Top receiver Sean Bailey is gone but Mohamed Massaquoi is back, as is tight end Tripp Chandler. Protection for Stafford and blocking for Moreno is an issue. The line returns only two starters—center Chris Davis and guard Clint Boling—as tackle Trinton Sturdivant was lost for the season, injured in a scrimmage. Boling may miss a game or two due to a DUI, and fullback Brannan Southerland will miss 3 to 5 games (including the very tight South Carolina road game) while recovering from foot surgery.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #9   Adj. Rush Def: #18    Adj. Pass Def: #14
The defense was solid in 2007 and should be even better in 2008. Three starters return on the defensive line, led by tackles Geno Atkins  and Jeff Owens, with Roderick Battle at end and several quality backups to compensate for the loss of Marcus Howard (10.5 sacks). Linebacker is less straightforward, with the loss of two part-time starters including Marcus Washington who is redshirting due to injury; backup Darius Dewberry suspended for two games; and redshirt frosh Charles White out for the year. But team leading tackler Daniel Ellerbe returns with two part-time starters covering strong-side, while Rennie Curran at weak-side was the team's #4 tackler last year despite starting only 1/2 time. So it's close to having all starters return, especially since Georgia may move to using only two linebackers to add an extra man in the secondary. Speaking of which, three starters return to last year's excellent unit: Prince Miller, Asher Allen, and C.J. Byrd. In all six of the team's top seven leading tacklers are back, and 15 out of the top 20.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Brian Mimbs averaged 42.4 yards per punt and netted 37.9, both very good figures. But excellent kicker Brandon Coutu is gone, and true freshman Blair Walsh will try to fill his shoes.
Recruiting: Richt is doing a fine job; both of the last 2 classes were in or near the top 10. From '07, redshirt frosh Caleb King will back up Moreno, and Justin Anderson is looking strong on the offensive line. The '08 class' prize may be wide receiver A.J. Green.
2008 Season Outlook: Georgia was less than dominant in the first half of 2007. A loss to South Carolina was disappointing, but the overtime win at Alabama brought them back. When Tennessee beat the Bulldogs 35-14, however, Georgia looked to be consigned to the role of spoiler in the SEC. As it turns out, Tennessee's win was what prevented the Bulldogs from getting to the SEC title game, but Georgia did the best they could, winning six straight games to finish the regular season 10-2. The key was the emergence of Knowshon Moreno as a force on offense, as he ran through Florida like butter and probably prevented Vanderbilt from getting an upset. Troy also hung with the Bulldogs for a long time before succumbing, 44-34, but Auburn, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech all fell relatively easily. The game vs. Hawaii had an obvious outcome, as Georgia was virtually a home team compared to the overrated Warriors, and the 41-10 final pretty much says it all. The passing defense was excellent against Hawaii, with 8 sacks. Like USC, Georgia suffered two losses but finished strong and had people proclaiming they were the best team in the country at the end.

Georgia 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Georgia Southern	87%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Central Michigan	78%	W
9/13	Sat	@	*South Carolina	49%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Arizona State	53%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	61%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Tennessee	62%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	75%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	51%	W
11/1	Sat	N	*Florida	39%	L
11/8	Sat	@	*Kentucky	59%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Auburn	51%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	Georgia Tech	78%	W
Favored: 10-2  Projected: 7-5

People are expecting Georgia to be a great team in 2008, and while they're even better than last year, their schedule might be a bit too much to expect perfection from them. As noted, they are missing a handful of players for the first game, but Georgia Southern will be missing eight suspended players themselves. Central Michigan shouldn't be an obstacle, but then they face two tough road games, South Carolina and ASU. They'll probably split those, though it's more likely they can sweep those two than the two that come later, LSU and Florida, neither at home. Another road trip to Auburn, and to me it looks like the Bulldogs' best hope is for 11-1, with 10-2 or 9-3 more likely. That won't get them into the national championship game. 2007 was a fluke in a lot of ways: a sophomore winning the Heisman, and a 2-loss team winning the national championship. So it looks like Moreno and the Dawgs are out of luck. Even if the pollsters are right and Georgia is the best team, this schedule might not allow them to prove it, once again.

10. Oregon Ducks      (pre-season AP #21, USA/Coaches #20)

2007 Results:  Record:9-4  Bowl: beat South Florida 56-21 (Sun Bowl)  Poll finish:#23 AP #24 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #7     Success: #10     Combined: #8
Oregon was the best team in the nation for a time last year—before they lost Dennis Dixon. After playing aimlessly for three games, they regrouped and demolished a great USF team in the Sun Bowl. That game showed how good the team could be even without Dixon, and makes the Ducks my surprise pick in the Pac-10, despite their considerable losses and the many uncertainties they face this fall.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #6    Adj. Rush Yards: #5    Adj. Pass Yards: #59
Dennis Dixon wasn't just the Ducks' best player, he was their team leader. That's why they fell so far when he was hurt, despite the wealth of talent on the team: they couldn't function without their leader. Dixon was also the clear leader in the Heisman race at the time, with a 20:4 TD to INT ratio and 68% completion rate, paired with over 500 rushing yards and 9 TDs. His absence, and the injury to backup Brady Leaf, left a stable of untried QBs that faltered until the bowl game where Justin Roper was excellent. Now, in the battle to replace Dixon at starter, the pecking order looks like this: Nate Costa has moved ahead of Roper; Justin Roper will be the starter, as Nate Costa is out for the season with a knee injury; JUCO Jeremiah Masoli and true freshmen Chris Harper and Darron Thomas are backups (two other QBs transferred, for obvious reasons). My feeling is, if the quarterback corps improved so much between, say, the UCLA game and the USF game, they'll be fine after an entire off-season to adjust the offense. And Costa's injury hurts but Roper was the man against USF and they have depth. Of course, a big part of the USF win was RB Jonathan Stewart (1,722 yards, 11 TDs) and he's gone, too. They're prepared to replace him, however, having the same size stable of running backs as quarterbacks, but no one returns that rushed for as many yards as Dixon let alone Stewart. So what will make the offense work? Well, returning receiver Jaison Williams (844 yards, 8 TDs) is a fine target for any QB, and he returns with tight end Ed Dickson (3 TDs). Also, the offensive line will make any running back successful, with three senior starters led by tackle Fenuki Tupou. The offense will look very different, with the receivers and O-line generating the gains rather than two key superstars, but it will still be potent, though not nearly as good as last year's, which was #1 before Dixon's untimely exit.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #23      Adj. Rush Def: #14     Adj. Pass Def: #78
The defense should be better in every area this year. The poor pass yardage rating from last year doesn't tell the whole story, as 20 drives ended in interception and Oregon's red zone defense was excellent, so despite the yardage teams put up it didn't translate equally into points. Three excellent starters return to the secondary: Corners Walter Thurmond (5 int., 18 pass break-ups) and Jairus Byrd (7 int., 15 pass break-ups), and safety Patrick Chung (team's #1 tackler), so look for their ranking to move up. The linebackers have depth, losing just two part-time starters and returning Jerome Boyd and John Bacon, with Kevin Garrett, Casey Matthews, and Spencer Paysinger covering the other slot and providing backup. The D-line was great against the run and Nick Reed was a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks with 12 sacks. He returns at end with Will Tukuafu. Like the offense, the defense returns a huge amount of reserves from last season.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The Duck kicking game is in great shape, with punter Josh Syria netting 36.7 per punt, and Matt Evensen perfect on PATs and 16 of 20 on field goals, with good distance on kickoffs.
Recruiting: The 2008 class was great, borderline top 25, while the '07 class was better, borderline top 10. Many of the best from 2007 played as true freshman, which is why the 2nd string is sophomore-heavy this season. Of this year's true frosh, LeGarrette Blount is one of the many running backs looking to replace Stewart, and John Boyett could factor at the open safety spot. Hamani Stevens impressed coaches after moving to the defensive line. Unfortunately, there were some bad notes: Top JUCO d-lineman Justin Thompson didn't qualify, and redshirt frosh linebacker Todd Doxey died in a bridge-jumping accident in the summer.
2008 Season Outlook: Last year was a dream season that came to an abrupt and rude awakening. Oregon was on a roll and was destined for the national championship game, when Dennis Dixon, hurt previously in the ASU game, badly re-injured his knee against Arizona. The Ducks fell apart, losing that game and the next two against UCLA and Oregon State, finishing 8-4. Before that point, Oregon looked indestructable, beating USC and Arizona State to go 8-1. A loss to Cal in the fifth game was their only blemish and a dominant win over Michigan in game 2 was their coming out party. At their peak the offense was the best in the country, but Dixon's downfall will always have the Ducks faithful wondering "what if."

Oregon 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	*Washington	71%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Utah State	89%	W
9/13	Sat	@	Purdue	65%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Boise State	67%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Washington State	68%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Southern California	50%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	*UCLA	71%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Arizona State	53%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*California	58%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Stanford	74%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Arizona	63%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Oregon State	62%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 8-4

Oregon rates as the Pac-10's best team—can that be right? The team that loses Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart is good enough to beat USC and ASU on the road? According to my projections, possibly; the latter two have issues of their own, and all the top Pac-10 teams are weaker this year than last. Still, a 12-0 finish defies credulity, considering that last year's team had a loss even with Dixon healthy. The hardest game will clearly be in Pasadena which could go either way, and another loss would be expected somewhere else to put them 10-2. The conservative projection of 8-4 will become a reality if the quarterback play isn't good, and Costa's injury is the first step toward that situation. I'll watch this team with interest this year, to see what develops. They have a pretty easy pre-conference schedule, so if they're not 5-0 before the USC game, don't expect much from them at all. On the other hand, if they're 8-0 through October, they could play in the national title game in '08, making up for '07's missed opportunity. More than any other team, the Ducks' potential range of outcomes is very broad, because they both lost more talent—and return more—than almost anyone else.