SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #61 to #65. To see the full list, click here.
61. Vanderbilt Commodores |
2007 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #58 Success: #67 Combined: #59
The Commodores can't quite get to the next level. Many starters leave, but returning talent in the reserves prevents a fall.
Offense (3 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #79 Adj. Rush Yards: #59 Adj. Pass Yards: #100
Though dueling starters MacKenzie Adams and Chris Nickson return at QB, that's not necessarily a great thing; they combined for 15 TDs and 11 interceptions, and just over 1,800 yards. 1/3 of those TDs went to superstar receiver Earl Bennett (75 rec., 830 yards) and he took them and went pro. Two other receivers return as starters, but that's it for the offense: they must replace the starting running back, tight end, and ALL FIVE full-time starters on the offensive line. They lose 14 years of starting experience from last season's line. This offense is in a bit of trouble.
Defense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #30 Adj. Rush Def: #35 Adj. Pass Def: #21
The defense was consistently good last season, but '08 might have weak and strong areas. The weak will be the front seven, where just two starters are back. The defensive line's best player, Steven Stone, is back, but at linebacker the team's leading tackler Jonathan Goff is gone along with #3 tackler Marcus Buggs. The secondary, on the other hand, is as solid as you can get. They resemble last year's O-line: every starter returns, and even the backups have significant starting experience, too. Already a top 25 pass defense, they may be one of the best in the nation in 2007 if the pass rush doesn't suffer too much.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Brett Upson and kicker Bryant Hahnfeldt return; neither will knock your socks off but they get the job done. Upson is especially good at sticking the other team inside the 20, while Hahnfeldt is reliable only inside the 30.
Recruiting: As one of the lower members of the SEC totem pole, Vandy doesn't get the great recruits. The '07 and '08 classes rank roughly 80th. Years like this one are a good test though, since the Commodores' needs are well-defined and plentiful. James Williams and Kyle Fischer from '07 are listed as backups on the O-line, while Udom Umoh and Jamie Graham may compete for time at wide receiver. True freshman John Cole may have the best chance at that spot after impressing during camp. On defense, '07 redshirts tackle T.J. Greenstone and linebacker Chris Marve help out the front seven, while DeAndre Jones has the best chance of contributing this year from the '08 class.
Vanderbilt 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/28 | Thu | @ | Miami (Ohio) | 54% | W |
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9/4 | Thu | vs. | *South Carolina | 36% | L | |||
9/13 | Sat | vs. | Rice | 70% | W |
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9/20 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi | 44% | L | |||
10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Auburn | 36% | L | |||
10/11 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi State | 40% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Georgia | 22% | L | |||
10/25 | Sat | vs. | Duke | 58% | W |
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11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Florida | 21% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | @ | *Kentucky | 36% | L | |||
11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Tennessee | 39% | L | |||
11/29 | Sat | @ | Wake Forest | 37% | L | |||
Favored: 3-9 Projected: 5-7 |
2008 Season Outlook Scheduling can make or break dreams. In Vandy's case, starting the season 5-3 created lofty expectations for making it to their first bowl game in decades. But the reality of their last four games—against Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Wake Forest—crushed that notion, even though they came close to winning a couple of those games.
The 2008 schedule looks pretty straightforward. Expected wins over Miami Ohio, Rice, and Duke; everything else is a longshot, except maybe Mississippi. But the odds favor an upset or two here, so matching last season's tally isn't too unlikely. Note that their last four foes are the in the same order as in 2007; they may face the same problem as last season: if they beat the Mississippi teams and start 5-3, can they get another upset and reach a bowl game, or will it be another year where they finish just short?
62. Stanford Cardinal |
2007 Results: Record: 4-8 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #70 Success: #55 Combined: #68
They pulled off one of the biggest upsets ever last season. Jim Harbaugh has the program headed in the right direction, but a true breakthrough may be a few years off.
Offense (6.5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #78 Adj. Rush Yards: #65 Adj. Pass Yards: #63
The Cardinal offense is a hodgepodge of uncertainty and injury, but when things get figured out and players get healthy it won't be that bad. Tavita Pritchard (5 TD, 9 INT) returns after sharing QB duties with T.C. Ostrander (7 TD, 3 INT) last season, and had to win the job in camp from soph Alex Loukas and Michigan transfer Jason Forcier. One of the three top receivers returns, while at tight end Jim Dray is recovering from a knee injury and Ben Ladner was kicked off the team. At running back there were four in the mix last season; Anthony Kimble will start with Toby Gerhardt and Jeremy Stewart getting time while Tyrone McGraw left the program. Fullback Owen Marecic is back as well. And as if your scorecard wasn't confusing enough, 2 1/2 starters return on the offensive line. The 1/2 is for the left tackle position, where part-time starter Ben Muth returns. Allen Smith started at the spot in '06 and was the starter last season before injury. Still hurt, there was talk of redshirting him, but now he's rehabbing and is expected back at "some time during the season." Also leaving the program were receiver/returner Chris Hobbs, and TE/QB/FB/left fielder Kellen Kiilsgaard.
Defense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #55 Adj. Rush Def: #51 Adj. Pass Def: #103
The defense is a lot more straightforward: each section of the 4-3 returns three starters in a 4-3. The front four features Pannel Egboh (6 sacks) and Ekom Udofia is healthy now. The linebackers, who were exceptional at harassing the quarterback, all return: Clinton Snyder had 8 sacks, Pat Maynor 6, and Chike Amajoyi 4. With all this sacking going on it's surprising that Stanfords passing D was so bad, but the secondary had few interceptions. Leading tackler Bo McNally returns at free safety along with strong safety Austin Yancy, and at corner two half-time starters are back. In all, 11 of the top 12 tacklers return on D.
Kicking Game (0 RS): A couple of freshmen may take over at kicker and punter. David Green (redshirt freshman) will replace the erratic Derek Belch, who was 15-27 on FGs. Green might also take over at punter, otherwise true freshman Daniel Zychlinski or last year's backup Alex Loukas will replace Jay Ottovegio.
Recruiting: Harbough is in his second season, and seems to be doing well with the unique challenges of recruiting at Stanford. The team has had many winning seasons in the past, but keeping the program stocked with talent is the difficult part. Both of the last two classes ranked roughly 50th in the country.
Stanford 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon State | 51% | W | |||
9/6 | Sat | @ | *Arizona State | 31% | L | |||
9/13 | Sat | @ | Texas Christian | 41% | L | |||
9/20 | Sat | vs. | San Jose State | 70% | W |
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9/27 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 43% | L | |||
10/4 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 49% | L | |||
10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 42% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 43% | L | |||
11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 54% | W | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *Oregon | 24% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Southern California | 37% | L | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *California | 38% | L | |||
Favored: 3-9 Projected: 5-7 |
2008 Season Outlook Last year started out 1-3, and somehow the Cardinal had acquired a reputation as one of the worst in college football (a 1-11 '06 didn't help). So when they upset USC in Pasedena, the focus was on the Trojans, and John David Booty's broken finger. No one stopped to realize that Stanford might be getting a lot better.
They won only two more games, but it was a vast improvement over the previous season, and ultimately they finished the year an average team, by national standards. For a BCS conference team, they still had a ways to go.
Even though they're an improved team once again, their schedule is just too tough. As in 2007, if they get more than a few wins it will be from upsets. It happened last year, and they aren't ruled out of winning most of these games. The home opener vs. Oregon State is questionable because several of the injured players may miss it, but Oregon State is missing a key starter that game, too. Washington and Notre Dame are definite possibilities for upsets. As for Arizona and UCLA, who knows how those teams will play one week to the next? I think the Cardinal will beat Washington State, but after that they'd need some really big upsets—like the ones they got last season—to avoid losing the final three games. My bet is that they match their 2007 record, beating SJSU for sure; your guess is as good as mine as to exactly where they get the other three.
63. Washington State Cougars |
2007 Results: Record: 5-7 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #62 Success: #63 Combined: #62
A fair number of players return, but QB Alex Brink was the most important, and the Cougars will miss him.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #54 Adj. Rush Yards: #67 Adj. Pass Yards: #7
305 completions for 3,818 yards and 26 TDs. Those stats don't grow on trees, or everyone would have a quarterback like Alex Brink, who departs after a career that was productive though tempered by interceptions (15 in '07) and losses. The new starter will be either '07 backup Gary Rogers or K-State transfer Kevin Lopina. 1,100 yard receiver Brandon Gibson (9 TDs) is back but the next three best receivers aren't, and the next, Jeshua Anderson, is out for half the season with an injury; between all that and the QB change, the Cougars' top ten ranking is going to plummet. The running game should increase production, though, with the top two rushers returning and four starters back on the offensive line.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #69 Adj. Rush Def: #34 Adj. Pass Def: #96
Two starters are back in the front four, but there's a bit of trouble at tackle: starter A'i Ahmu was suspended after drunkenly breaking a frat window; his backup, Andy Roof, returns after a year off but may be charged with assault. Both are practicing with the team right now. Returning end Andy Mattingly had his own run-in with the law but is also back presumably for good. All three full-time starters return at linebacker, so there is no concern in that department. And the secondary, the area that needs the most improvement, has three starters back, though they will miss leading tackler Hussein Abdullah (the only loss of WSU's top nine tacklers). His replacement at free safety, Xavier Hicks, will miss the first three games due to assault charges. All in all, the Cougars will have a much improved defense—provided the players can stay out of jail over the next several months.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Reid Forrest returns after sporting a 40.5 average in '07. He injured his left ankle recently and may miss the first game. Kicker Romeen Abdollmohammadi leaves, but soph Wade Penner has an easier-to-type name as well as experience handling kickoff duties last year, and a great spring game where he hit two from 50+.
Recruiting: The Cougars' '07 class ranked almost in the top 50, while the '08 class is outside the top 80. This may be a product of the coaching change to Paul Wulff, as transitional years are often poorer. But the current class addressed their immediate need for depth on the defensive line, with JUCOs Bernard Wolfgramm, Jesse Sanchez, and Josh Laupo expected to provide help.
Washington State 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | Oklahoma State | 44% | L | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | *California | 44% | L | |||
9/13 | Sat | @ | Baylor | 55% | W | |||
9/20 | Sat | vs. | Portland State | 80% | W | |||
9/27 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon | 30% | L | |||
10/4 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 42% | L | |||
10/11 | Sat | @ | *Oregon State | 39% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Southern California | 36% | L | |||
11/1 | Sat | @ | *Stanford | 46% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 42% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | @ | *Arizona State | 31% | L | |||
11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Washington | 49% | L | |||
11/29 | Sat | @ | Hawaii | 49% | L | |||
Favored: 2-11 Projected: 6-7 |
2008 Season Outlook The Cougars didn't have much success in the Pac-10 last season. Starting with four losses, they beat a highly erratic UCLA and doormat Stanford, then closed with a win in the Apple cup over actual last-place Washington. They were competitive with surprise power Arizona State and erstwhile power Cal, but Oregon beat them 53-7, USC 47-17, and even Oregon State, 52-17.
Washington State plays 13 games this year, and there's a fine line between two wins and six, but the Cougars could hit either one. They start with two pretty tough customers at home, both of which could be won or lost. Their next two games should be wins, though Baylor isn't guaranteed. Then the rough stuff starts with the heart of the Pac-10 schedule. The conference was good last year and will be even better this year, so it isn't a good time to be the bottom team (or close to it). Oregon, UCLA, Oregon State, and USC look like losses; Stanford, and Arizona at home, are the best bets for Pac-10 wins (along with Cal early). They close with two complete tossup games at home vs. Washington and at Hawaii. If they can open with four wins and close with two, they'll be 6-7, and one upset later, they're bowl-bound. But realistically, I think that with the losses on offense and coaching change, not to mention the off-season troubles that might jeopardize the defense's improvement, matching last year's win total will be enough of a challenge.
64. Virginia Cavaliers |
2007 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to Texas Tech 31-28 (Gator) Poll finish: #26 AP; #27 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #44 Success: #34 Combined: #43
The Cavs won so many close games in 2007 that it gave a distorted view of their true strength. They also lose some key talent; the wins will come a lot harder in 2008.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #62 Adj. Rush Yards: #71 Adj. Pass Yards: #78
Cedric Peerman started the first half of the season at tailback, and Mikell Simpson the 2nd half after Peerman got hurt. The two combined for over 1,000 yards, 13 TDs, and over 5 yards per carry. Both are back this year, but not quarterback Jameel Sewell, who was the team's third leading rusher. He's academically ineligible this season. Backup Peter Lalich did a good job for a true freshman and should take over in '08, and while the actual starting wide receivers all return, the top pass catchers were tight ends Tom Santi and Jonathan Stupar, who are gone. The O-line is questionable, too, with two starters back. One is the excellent Eugene Monroe; the other is the equally huge Will Barker, who stole beer from a gay bar this summer and might be suspended for a game or two because of it.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #32 Adj. Rush Def: #42 Adj. Pass Def: #72
Of all the losses on the team, the biggest is the loss of Chris Long, All-everything defensive end. He was the team's 2nd-leading tackler last season, and had 14 sacks and an interception. The defensive line loses the other two starters as well, including Jeffrey Fitzgerald (4th in tackles, 7 sacks, 2 INTs) to academics. This puts the whole defense in question, though the quality of the linebacking corps should help out somewhat. Three starters return there: 2-year starter John Copper (#1 tackler), 2-year starter Antonio Appleby, and three-year starter Clint Sintim (#3 tackler, 9 sacks). The secondary's situation isn't as dire as the D-line's, nor as solid as the LB's; two starters return. But since UVa's pass D was suspect last season, that's not great news.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Cavs lose both punter Ryan Weigand and kicker Chris Gould. Both will be hard to replace; Weigand had a 45 yard average, and Gould kicked 16 of 20 field goals, and punted the short game, putting 19 of 26 inside the 20. Two freshmen (redshirt P Chris Hinkebein and true K Jimmy Howell) may take over, or it could be two walk-ons, senior John Thornton and UVa soccer star Yannick Reyering.
Recruiting: Al Groh had a great recruiting class in 2007, but sometimes the numbers can be misleading. First, not all of these players make it to campus, due to NCAA clearinghouse issues or other reasons. And since most freshmen redshirt, that gives them another year before they contribute, and if they leave during that time, the class ranking is overinflated. An example is J'Courtney Williams, the creme of that '07 crop, who was dismissed in the off-season for credit card theft/fraud. The '08 class was ranked much lower.
Virginia 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | Southern California | 36% | L | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | Richmond | 56% | W |
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9/13 | Sat | @ | Connecticut | 32% | L | |||
9/27 | Sat | @ | *Duke | 51% | W |
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10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Maryland | 41% | L | |||
10/11 | Sat | vs. | East Carolina | 51% | W |
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10/18 | Sat | vs. | *North Carolina | 45% | L | |||
10/25 | Sat | @ | *Georgia Tech | 48% | L | |||
11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Miami (Florida) | 57% | W |
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11/8 | Sat | @ | *Wake Forest | 37% | L | |||
11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Clemson | 33% | L | |||
11/29 | Sat | @ | *Virginia Tech | 37% | L | |||
Favored: 4-8 Projected: 5-7 |
2008 Season Outlook Here's a rundown of last season's victory margins: Duke by 11; UNC by 2; Georgia Tech by 5; Pitt by 30; Middle Tennessee by 2; UConn by 1; Maryland by 1; Wake Forest by 1; Miami by 48.
If that kind of luck holds out, Virginia can reach nine wins this year as well. But under normal circumstances, even without the team being downgraded, there would be little chance of repeating what happened in 2007. The combination of normal luck and a worse team can be deadly to a lucky team's projected record. Let's look at the damage.The Cavs can count on maybe two wins, and another four are strong possibilities. That means a lucky season will be break-even in 2008, and a bad luck season will be disastrous. I expect UVa to get four wins and put Al Groh firmly back on the hot seat. Unless last year's secret was some kind of voodoo that is replicable, of course.
65. Florida Atlantic Owls |
2007 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Memphis, 44-27 (New Orleans Bowl) Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #75 Success: #62 Combined: #75
Florida Atlantic overachieved last season, but with an even better team, they're ready to have an even better year and another showdown with Troy for the Sun Belt title.
Offense (9 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #64 Adj. Rush Yards: #100 Adj. Pass Yards: #23
It's all about Rusty Smith. The Owls' QB returns from a great '07 where he threw for 3,688 yards and 32 TDs against just 9 interceptions. With all his receivers back (ok, eight of the top nine, now that tight end Jason Harmon is injured and lost for the year) and four-fifths of the starting O-line intact, this pass-weighted offense is ready to rocket in 2008. Not only that, but with the top RB and fullback returning behind the strengthened line, the rushing yards are bound to improve as well from their dismal '07 ranking.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #90 Adj. Rush Def: #63 Adj. Pass Def: #74
The defense wasn't exactly great last year, let's face it. This led to a lot of shootout-style games, with both teams tagging 30+ on each other. The forecast for 2008 is better, starting with the rushing defense, as the front four all return. Leading tackler Frantz Joseph anchors the linebackers, with 1/2-time starters Andre Clark and George Allen back as well. And Corey Small and Tavious Polo—who combined for 12 interceptions—lead the secondary.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Keegan Peterson and kicker Warley Leroy both return. But Peterson's net was only 31.6 last season, while Leroy is questionable from 40+.
Recruiting: Howard Schnellenberger is in his 8th year at FAU. The program is only seven years old, four of them in I-A, and in the lowly Sun Belt conference. Considering that, it's not surprising that Florida Atlantic's recruiting ranks in the bottom 20 in the country. But there are plusses: the team's profile is rising; 2008's crop was a bit better than 2007's, and far better than 2006; and the potential in South Florida has little ceiling. There were 53 freshmen on last year's team, so watch out for the Owls in 2010.
FAU 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | @ | Texas | 28% | L | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | Alabama-Birmingham | 73% | W |
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9/13 | Sat | @ | Michigan State | 39% | L | |||
9/20 | Sat | @ | Minnesota | 52% | W |
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9/30 | Tue | @ | *Middle Tennessee | 57% | W |
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10/7 | Tue | vs. | *Troy | 48% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Western Kentucky | 60% | W |
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10/25 | Sat | @ | *Louisiana-Monroe | 56% | W |
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11/8 | Sat | vs. | *North Texas | 78% | W |
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11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Louisiana-Lafayette | 71% | W |
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11/22 | Sat | @ | *Arkansas State | 59% | W |
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11/29 | Sat | N | *Florida International | 72% | W |
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Favored: 9-3 Projected: 7-5 |
2008 Season Outlook Last season's highlights included: beating a BCS conference school (Minnesota); playing a ranked team relatively close (losing to USF, 35-23); winning at LA-Lafayette in overtime, then at Arkansas State by three; crushing FIU 55-23; and most importantly, upsetting Troy 38-32 to win the Sun Belt and earn a berth in the New Orleans Bowl, where they defeated Memphis 44-27.
In all, a very good year. And with an even better team, they might expect to repeat that success. But that may or may not happen, since last season the ball bounced their way more often than not. And with only four true home games this season out of 12, you would think that repeating last season's success would be difficult.And you'd be right—in a way. Even though FAU plays Troy at home, the Trojans are going to be tough enough to win the Sun Belt. But other than that, the Owls will probably match or exceed their performance last year. They won't get the win at Texas, nor likely at Michigan State. This year Minnesota again could go either way. But not many of their Sun Belt wins look particularly close; FAU and Troy are truly distancing themselves from the pack. I see a finish with six straight wins, and though 7-5 probably won't get them to a bowl if they don't win the conference, 8-4 or 9-3 certainly should.
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