College Football Pre-season 120: #56-60 - Could Ball State go 12-0?

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #56 to #60. To see the full list, click here.

56. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

2007 Results:    Record: 10-4    Bowl: Beat Bowling Green 63-7 (GMAC)    Poll finish: #36 AP  #35 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #60    Success: #46    Combined: #60
Tulsa's high-powered offense reloads, but without its key gunslinger.
Offense (8 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #64   Adj. Rush Yards: #100    Adj. Pass Yards: #23
Let's look at who is back. First, four full-time starters on the offensive line. Next, #1 running back Tarrion Adams (1,225 yards, 8 TDs) and starting fullback Charles Clay, who had mild rushing numbers but over 1,000 receiving yards and 7 TD catches. And finally the best of the receiving corps, including 1,000 yard-club members Brennan Marion (31.9 yards per catch; 11 TDs) and Trae Johnson (13 TDs as a true freshman). But that of course leaves out the man that made it all happen, quarterback Paul Smith. Smith's '07 stats: 327 of 524 (60%) for 5,065 yards, 47 TDs, 19 INT. Replacing him will David Johnson: 4 of 8 (50%) for 56 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs last year.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #90    Adj. Rush Def: #63    Adj. Pass Def: #74
The defense spent a lot of time on the field due to the hurry-up offense, and it showed. The adjusted numbers (accounting for Tulsa's opponents) aren't nearly as bad as the raw figures, but the defense is a concern, and even moreso this year as only five starters return in Tulsa's 3-3-5 defense. Two starters are back on the front three, but one of them, George Clinkscale, moves to linebacker where all three starters—Chris Chamberlain, Nelson Coleman, and Alain Karatepeyan, the team's three leading tacklers in '07—are gone. At the Bandit position (LB/CB in the nickel) starter Steve Craver (4th leading tackler) is gone but again, a starter (Roy Roberts) is moved in from elsewhere (cornerback) to cover. This leaves the rest of the secondary with two returning starters. The Hurricane lose their top four tacklers, but retain the next four. Lots of shifting around, but most of the 2nd string is back to fill the holes.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Jarod Tracy got a lot of practice at PATs, hitting 73 of 76 and just 7 of 12 field goals. Punter Michael Such was a yard shy of having a decent 40 yard average. Both return.
Recruiting: Tulsa's recruiting—which in Todd Graham's 2 years hasn't been that great even by CUSA standards—is put to the test this year, as depth on defense is a major concern. They could use a good quarterback, too, and JUCO recruit Jacob Bower will provide either support and/or competition for presumed starter Johnson. As for the D, wide receiver DeAundre Brown may contribute at corner along with John Flanders, with Kaipo Sarkissian and Brian Moore helping at linebacker.

Tulsa 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	@	*UAB	69%	W
9/6	Sat	@	North Texas	74%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	New Mexico	60%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	Central Arkansas	75%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Rice	72%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*SMU	66%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Texas-El Paso	69%	W
10/26	Sun	vs.	*Central Florida	55%	W
11/1	Sat	@	Arkansas	42%	L
11/15	Sat	@	*Houston	56%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Tulane	71%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Marshall	60%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 8-4

2008 Season Outlook Tulsa lost last year only to Big 12 power Oklahoma (62-21), at UTEP by 1 point, and twice to Central Florida (44-23 and 45-24). They beat BYU in a shootout, 55-47, outlasted UAB and Marshall (38-30, 38-31), beat SMU 29-23 in a game they should have lost. The defense played stellar football only twice; once in beating Houston 56-7, and against Bowling Green in the GMAC bowl, a 63-7 victory.

Despite the loss of Smith and concerns over the non-tenacious D, Tulsa is my highest rated CUSA team, and the schedule is pretty easy. Adding Central Arkansas was a smart move, but that other Arkansas team gives the Hurricane their only loss, going strictly by the favorites. Not many of the games are projected to be close—maybe just UCF and Houston—so an 11-1 run may be realistic. But given the uncertainty at QB, I'd be cautious and say that repeating 9-3 or maybe going 10-2 is more likely. They'll be the favorite in the CUSA championship game this time around. An interesting possibility is a rematch with UCF for the title, during which we would find out once and for all which Smith—a 2,500 yard rusher or a 5,000 yard passer—was more important to their team's success.

57. Ball State Cardinals

2007 Results:    Record: 7-6    Bowl: Lost to Rutgers 52-30 (International Bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #69   Success: #77    Combined: #70
The best team in the MAC, the most-improved conference. Ball State is good enough, and their schedule favorable enough, for them to have a breakthrough year.
Offense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #63    Adj. Rush Yards: #90    Adj. Pass Yards: #28
Nine returning starters may be an unfairly strict analysis, as starting experience returns at every position. They lose the equivalent of one starter on the offensive line, and another one between the receivers and running back corps—some of whom were defensive players who switched over to fill in the holes. Regardless, the important returnee is quarterback Nate Davis (3,667 yards, 30 TDs, just 6 interceptions). Almost all of his targets are back, including Dante Love (1,398 yards, 10 TDs) and tight end Darius Hill (11 TDs). The running game suffered not just by comparison, it literally suffered, as the Cardinals worked their way through five different backs and the numbers declined as the season progressed. The health problems are gone, for now at least, and production should increase. The offensive line features three full-time returning starters (center Dan Gerberry, tackle Robert Brewster, and guard Kyle Cornwell) and four seniors. With a top 25 level passing attack, a great offensive line returning, and a running game that will certainly improve greatly, Ball State will once again have an offense to be reckoned with in 2008.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #75    Adj. Rush Def: #88    Adj. Pass Def: #91
The defense needed help more than the offense, but things should be better in '08. Half of the defensive line is back; at end full-time starter Brandon Crawford (8 sacks) returns but not Cortlan Booker (3 sacks). Two starting linebackers return, including leading tackler Bryant Haines, but they must replace #2 tackler Mike Dorulla. The secondary boasts three returning starters in Trey Lewis, B.J. Hill, and Alex Knipp, who together accounted for 14 of the team's 19 interceptions. There are definitely some holes on defense, but essentially the entire 2nd string returns to fill them, so the unit should be much improved overall.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Returning punter Chris Miller averaged 45.4 yards a punt last season. The Cardinals have two kickers; Ian McGarvey (16/17 PATs, 7/8 FG) took over for Jake Hogue (33/34, 11/18) late last season.
Recruiting: Ball State does about par for the course for a MAC team in recruiting. The '07 class rated a bit higher than '08, and several redshirt freshmen from that class are scattered throughout the 2nd string with Lorren Womack pushing Haines at inside linebacker. But true freshman wide receiver Briggs Orsbon has been making noise in practice, and due to the lack of a solid backup, should anything happen to QB Davis, '08 recruit Kelly Page could be called into action.

Ball State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/28	Thu	vs.	Northeastern	75%	W
9/5	Fri	vs.	Navy	65%	W
9/13	Sat	@	*Akron	62%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Indiana	49%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Kent State	69%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Toledo	58%	W
10/11	Sat	@	Western Kentucky	62%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Eastern Michigan	67%	W
11/5	Wed	vs.	*Northern Illinois	72%	W
11/11	Tue	@	*Miami (Ohio)	56%	W
11/19	Wed	@	*Central Michigan	53%	W
11/25	Tue	vs.	*Western Michigan	63%	W
Favored: 11-1  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook Everyone remembers the game last season. It didn't turn into one of the games, like Appalachian State-Michigan or Louisville-Syracuse. But when Ball State went into Lincoln and very nearly knocked off the Huskers, racking up 40 points in a game they should have won, people took notice. The rest of the year was not as dramatic but followed the same formula: the offense scored a lot and the defense yielded a lot. They finished 7-5 but were clobbered by Ray Rice's 30,000 or so yards rushing during the International Bowl.

This year looks very, very good for the Cardinals. I have them favored in every game except for one—at Indiana—and that one's essentially a tossup. The games at Miami and league favorite Central Michigan should be close, but I see Ball State as the favorite to win the MAC. The cumulative odds give Ball State just under 7.5 wins, but I think 9-3 is definitely a realistic outcome, and 12-0 is not an impossibility.

58. Central Florida

2007 Results:    Record: 10-4    Bowl: L to Mississippi State 10-3 (Liberty Bowl)    Poll finish: #37 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #53    Success: #38    Combined: #52
That huge hole in the offense is Kevin "24K" Smith's 2.5K yards.
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #38   Adj. Rush Yards: #18    Adj. Pass Yards: #111
First things first—Kevin Smith is gone. 2,567 yards and 29 touchdowns are missing from this year's Knight offense. And good backups are hard to find these days; Philip Smith (246 yds, 4 TDs), expected to take over this year, is off the team for undisclosed reasons. Fullback Ricky Kay almost met a similar fate over law troubles but was reinstated. Now on to problem #2: quarterback. Kyle Israel was no stunner but he threw for nearly as many yards as Kevin Smith rushed for, and roughly half as many TDs. He'll be replaced by Greco, who like Israel, can run a bit too. The three top receivers return, too, so maybe the offense will be pass-based this season? It might work, if the depleted line (featuring all-conference left tackle Patrick Brown) can still protect the quarterback.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #60    Adj. Rush Def: #43    Adj. Pass Def: #53
The defense has far fewer questions. Although they allowed double digits every game, only three teams scored more than 31 and two of those were Texas and South Florida. The secondary will perhaps be the tightest unit, with all four starters back from a squad that had 24 interceptions. Leading tackler Sha'reff Rasjad and and 2nd leading tackler Jason Venson are at safety, with Joe Burnett and Johnell Neal (6 INT each) at corner. All three linebackers return, but the front four is a mixed bag, with two starters missing, including Leger Douzable (7.5 sacks). It will be up to defensive end Bruce Miller (7 sacks) to put pressure on the quarterback.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Blake Clingan returns after netting 36.4 per kick. A replacement for excellent kicker Michael Torres (20 of 24 FGs) must be found, and soph Jordan Dodds and redshirt frosh Salvatore Dimauro will battle it out during August.
Recruiting: UCF recruiting has come a long way in the last several years, and now the recruiting classes are not just some of the best in CUSA, but they are roughly average for all schools. Which basically means, after the bulk of the BCS schools, they're on top. Most of the immediate help is needed on offense, of course, and an '07 redshirt freshman, Joe Weatherford, will start or back up at quarterback, while true freshman Latavius Murray may provide an answer at running back.

UCF 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	South Carolina St.	71%	W
9/5	Fri	vs.	South Florida	23%	L
9/20	Sat	@	Boston College	43%	L
9/27	Sat	@	*Texas-El Paso	61%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*SMU	72%	W
10/11	Sat	@	Miami (Florida)	52%	W
10/26	Sun	@	*Tulsa	46%	L
11/2	Sun	vs.	*East Carolina	53%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Southern Miss	60%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Marshall	57%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Memphis	60%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*UAB	75%	W
Favored: 9-3   Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook The Knights became identified with Kevin Smith later in the year as he approached Barry Sanders' record, but the first national attention the program received in '07 was in the 2nd week of the season, when they nearly upset Texas. By the time South Florida pasted them 64-12, that shine had worn off and UCF was just 3-3. But as Smith kicked into high gear and the offense got going, they reeled off seven straight wins (scoring 40+ five times), beating Tulsa twice—the second time for the C-USA championship. They fell flat when they met Mississippi State's defense in the Liberty Bowl, but still finished with 10 wins.

Normally a team returning 14 starters rates somewhat better. UCF declines instead, their advances on defense offset by offensive losses and in particular, the foreseen reduction in the ground game. But the Knights will still be one of the top teams in C-USA, and may finish the regular season with the same 9-3 record they achieved in '07. USF at home and the B.C. game on the road look tough, but the game at Miami is winnable; that could be the Knights' real coming out party. From there, the conference schedule is pretty lenient, save Tulsa on the road. UCF could play Tulsa twice again this year, but without Smith they lose both this time. With some touch-and-go wins on the list (Miami, East Carolina, at Marshall) the cume projection is 7-5; that or 8-4 might be more realistic for a team that has so many questions on offense. If they find the answers, though, another C-USA title game and bowl game are in their near future.

59. East Carolina Pirates

2007 Results:    Record: 8-5    Bowl: beat Boise State 41-38 (Hawaii bowl)    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #66    Success: #61    Combined: #65
Skip Holtz hopes to build on last year's success.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #41    Adj. Rush Yards: #45    Adj. Pass Yards: #84
East Carolina has two starting QBs back, Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass, but running back Chris Johnson ran for more yards than either of them passed for and had nearly as many TDs (17) as both of them combined. Johnson moved on to the NFL, leaving Pinkney the leading returning rusher. Moreover, expected starting RB Dominique Linsday may be out for the season with a knee injury. Pinkney will start at QB in 2008 as he adds a running threat and was more accurate than Kass. They lose some top receivers but Jamar Bryant is back with tight end Davon Drew. The offensive line is loaded; about four starters worth of experience is back between full-time, part-time, and '06 returnees (including Terence Campbell, who is coming back after open heart surgery). Look for a bigger passing game from the Pirates this season.
Defense (9 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #84    Adj. Rush Def: #49    Adj. Pass Def: #118
The pass defense was atrocious last season for the Pirates; teams that had no business racking up big yards throught the air did. The secondary should be much improved, with leading tackler Van Eskridge and cornerback Jerek Hewett back; J.J. Milbrook and Leon Best both started games at safety. The defensive line will help out as almost all starters and backups return; C.J. Wilson (7 sacks) and Zack Slate (4.5) should put some pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Two of three linebackers return as well, making this defense one of the most improved in Conference-USA.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Matt Dodge and kicker Ben Hartman return. Dodge averaged over 40, but netted just 32.8. Hartman was 50 of 50 in extra points but just 8 of 15 outside the 30 in field goals, though he did make the winner against Boise State. He may miss some or all of the season due to injury, and Dodge would handle placekicking chores during that time.
Recruiting: The Pirates' recruiting has ranked in the 70s and 80s the last couple of years. Help at running back this year may come from J.R. Rogers, a redshirt-JUCO from the '07 class. At least one '08 recruit, Max Joyner, appears to be off the team from law trouble.

East Carolina 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Virginia Tech	46%	L
9/6	Sat	vs.	West Virginia	30%	L
9/13	Sat	@	*Tulane	62%	W
9/20	Sat	@	North Carolina St.	56%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Houston	61%	W
10/11	Sat	@	Virginia	48%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Memphis	66%	W
11/2	Sun	@	*Central Florida	46%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Marshall	63%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Southern Miss	53%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*UAB	67%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Texas-El Paso	67%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook When Virginia Tech struggled to beat ECU 17-7 in the 2007 season opener, many questioned Tech's quality and high ranking. By the end of the season, Tech had proven themselves, and so had the Pirates, upsetting heavily-favored Boise State in the Hawaii Bowl. 

Note the paradoxical offensive stats above: the Pirates were 41st in scoring, but 45th and 84th in yardage. The answer is turnovers—the offense didn't commit them, and the defense caused them, leading to easy scores that required fewer yards. The Pirates were 4th in turnover margin in the NCAA. If they can continue to do this, the 2008 campaign may be even more successful than 2007. After another rough opening stretch against the Hokies and Mountaineers, the Pirates are favorites in eight games, at least six of them strong favorites. The game at Virginia looks like a close one, too, as does UCF. The potential exists for a really great season, though the cumulative projection calls for a more restrained prediction, just matching last season's record. With the improvements on defense and the solid offensive line, 8-4 looks realistic. And if a really good running back is found, who knows?

60. Mississippi Rebels

2007 Results:    Record: 3-9    Bowl: n/a    Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #71    Success: #95    Combined: #72
The Rebels weren't such an awful team last year—they just played in a tough conference. But that excuse didn't work for coach Ed Orgeron, and Houston Nutt came in from Arkansas to take over.
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #89   Adj. Rush Yards: #64    Adj. Pass Yards: #60
The offense returns seven starters, but lose a couple of key ones, running back BenJarvis Green-Ellis (1,137 yards) and quarterback Seth Adams (1,979 yards, 12 TDs)—and both of their backups have moved on as well. Adams threw 16 interceptions and completed only 55%, so the hope is that Texas transfer Jevan Snead can not only fill in but improve the passing game with the help of a clutch of returning receivers. Another newcomer may fill Green-Ellis' shoes: true freshman Enrique Davis is competing for the starting job with little-used junior Cordera Eason, who was impressive in the spring game. Making all of this possible will be the offensive line, where four starters are back plus ex-starter Darryl Harris who was granted a sixth year of eligibility.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #49    Adj. Rush Def: #86    Adj. Pass Def: #62
The much-maligned Rebel defense wasn't as awful as the scores indicated; they played five of the 11 top-scoring teams in the country. But they had trouble against both the run and the pass. The defensive line looked set with three starters back, but recently Greg Hardy (10 sacks in 4 games last season) was hurt and will probably miss 2/3 the season and Peria Jerry (knee) will be out 1/3 of it (I docked the defense one starter for the their missed time combined). On the plus side, Jerrell Powe, a five-star recruit from 2005, was finally cleared to play, and soph Kentrell Lockett was already starting ahead of Hardy, so they may fill the gaps. The linebacking corps is stocked with experienced players including leading tackler Ashlee Palmer, but backup Brandon Thomas left the team. The secondary should continue to improve with three starters returning. All in all, 12 of the top 14 tacklers on the team are back, and when Hardy and Peria return it will be 14 of 14.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Joshua Shene and Justin Sparks return as kicker and punter; neither is great nor awful.
Recruiting: Mississippi has had good recruiting under the coaches it has fired, and recently the classes have been around 30th best in the country. Houston Nutt inherits a lot of talent, even some like Powe debuting from the 2005 class. But the newcomers from '07 and '08 will help the team quite a bit this season. Some are counting on running back Davis to be the team's savior as a true freshman, and a slew of JUCOs like linebacker Patrick Trahan, and lineman Emmanuel Stephens will help on defense while tight end Gerald Harris and center Brandon Green may start on offense.

Ole Miss 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Memphis	66%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Wake Forest	38%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Samford	94%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Vanderbilt	54%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Florida	14%	L
10/4	Sat	vs.	*South Carolina	37%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*Alabama	32%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Arkansas	40%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	*Auburn	37%	L
11/15	Sat	vs.	Louisiana-Monroe	64%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Louisiana State	29%	L
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Mississippi State	47%	L
Favored: 4-8  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook The problem was, Mississippi didn't pull off any upsets. In the most upset-laden year in recent college football memory, the Rebels played it strictly by the book: lose to the good teams in the conference (which there were many), lose to the mediocre teams in the conference (Alabama, Vanderbilt), and lose to rival Mississippi State. Beat Memphis, Louisiana Tech, and Northwestern State. And who's bright idea was it to schedule Missouri?

Assuming no upsets, Ole Miss is in store for another long year. A bit better at 4-8, and since they play Vandy at home they won't get shut out in the SEC. But their early games are their best potential wins, and Hardy and Peria will be out during this time, which is a concert. With the two of them back at the end of the year they might beat Mississippi State at home. The cumulative odds suggest they should go 6-6, but again, that means they'd have to play above their heads for a couple of games. Can Nutt make them want it enough? Stay tuned.