Pre-season 120: #11 Clemson; #12 LSU; #13 Texas

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #11 to #13. To see the full list, click here.

11. Clemson Tigers     (pre-season AP #9, USA/Coaches #9)

2007 Results:   Record: 9-4    Bowl: L to Auburn 23-20 OT (Chik-Fil-A)  Poll finish: #21 AP #22 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #13    Success: #29    Combined: #16
A lot is expected of the Tigers this year. Will this be the year they win the ACC?
Offense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #18   Adj. Rush Yards: #34  Adj. Pass Yards: #58
If there's really such a thing as a "short list" of Heisman candidates, then Clemson QB Cullen Harper should minimally make the long list. With a 27-6 TD to interception count, 65% completion rate, and just shy of 3,000 yards last season, Harper will be in the running if Clemson has the kind of year it would like to have. The top three receivers are back led by Aaron Kelly (1,081 yds, 11 TDs) as is tight end Michael Palmer. Running back James Davis (1,064 yds, 10 TDs) could have Heisman stats himself, but he shares carries with C.J. Spiller (768 yds). The offensive line is the only questionable area, as only center Thomas Austin returns as a full-time starter from last year, and three full-time starters depart, including four-year starter Barry Richardson.
Defense (6.5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #21   Adj. Rush Def: #39    Adj. Pass Def: #10
The football gods giveth, and they taketh away. That's what happened to Clemson's defense. The taketh away could refer to Clemson linebacker Cortney Vincent, dismissed from the team, leaving the linebacking corps without a returning starter. Or it could mean defensive tackle Rashaad Jackson, gone for at least 1/2 the season with a torn tendon. The giveth? Da'Quan Bowers, a five-star defensive line recruit who, along with returning starters Dorell Scott and Ricky Sapp, will have to help make up for Vincent and Jackson's absence, as well as Tramaine Billie's 7 sacks and Nick Watkins' 118 tackles. The secondary is looking far better, though, with four starters back: corners Crezdon Butler and Chris Chancellor, and safeties Michael Hamlin and Chris Clemons started every game for the Tigers last year. This unit could be the best in the country even if excellent backup Deandre McDaniel's legal troubles cost him playing time, and/or he switches to linebacker where he is needed more.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Punter Jimmy Maners averaged 42.8 yards a punt, but netted 10 yards less, which wasn't due to lack of hangtime but rather poor coverage. He's back, as is kicker Mark Buchholz, who was 16 of 19 inside the 40 but a dismal 6 for 17 outside.
Recruiting: Clemson nearly had a top ten recruiting class in '08, largely because of Bowers (see offense), who is likely to start immediately. The 2007 class was a top 25 class, too, and redshirt freshmen David Smith and Brandon May will help fill the gaps in the offensive line and at linebacker, respectively.
2008 Season Outlook: 2007 was another year where Clemson didn't quite break through. It wasn't a repeat of 2006, where the Tigers started strong and finished poorly; but they didn't win the ACC nor get to the title game, and they lost two of three at the end including the tight bowl game. The low point was when they stood 4-2 after back to back losses at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, and many wrote them off; their high point followed, a four game winning streak where Clemson crushed Central Michigan 70-14, beat Maryland and Duke, and swamped Wake Forest 44-10. By that time, there was talk of a BCS bowl, but the Tigers lost to Boston College 20-17, and barely beat South Carolina to finish the regular season 9-3.

Clemson 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Alabama	56%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Citadel	85%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina St.	83%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	South Carolina St.	94%	W
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Maryland	61%	W
10/9	Thu	@	*Wake Forest	57%	W
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	75%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Boston College	62%	W
11/8	Sat	@	*Florida State	56%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Duke	79%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Virginia	67%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	South Carolina	56%	W
Favored: 12-0  Projected: 8-4

One reason most publications rank Clemson high this year is because it appears that they will be good. But some are using another reason: schedule. The Tigers have only four real road games, they play two Division I-AA teams, and they play in the ACC, which has a handful of strong teams but few elite. I figure Clemson is a pretty solid favorite in every game, and that going 12-0 is a possibility, even if the (very conservative) odds above give them only a 1% chance of doing so. The potential pitfalls are the Alabama opener in Atlanta, at Wake Forest, at FSU, and at South Carolina, each of which Clemson is a definite but shaky favorite. Lose all of them and it's another good but disappointing year. Split them, which is realistic, and they're 10-2, an improvement but maybe not enought to get to the ACC title game. To be consistent enough to win throughout the entire year, the offensive line has to grow up fast, as does the front seven on defense. If they make it past the Alabama game, they'll have a good breather before their next test. Clemson definitely has the potential—and the schedule—to be playing for the national championship in January.

12. Louisiana State Tigers      (pre-season AP #7, USA/Coaches #6)

2007 Results: Record:12-2 Bowl: beat Ohio State 38-24 (BCS championship) Poll finish:#1 AP #1 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #4     Success: #1     Combined: #1
Last year's national champs suffered a plethora of losses even before Ryan Perrilloux was kicked off the squad.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #4    Adj. Rush Yards: #11    Adj. Pass Yards: #52
Matt Flynn did a good job last year as LSU's quarterback, with 2,407 yards and 21 TDs vs. 11 interceptions, plus 215 net rushing yards and 4 TDs. But Ryan Perrillous was set to be a very able replacement; just in '07's limited play, he hit 68% of his attempts for 694 yards and 8 TDs vs. 2 INT, and ran for 207 yards and 2 TDs. In other words, he had a far better completion percentage and rushing average than his predecessor. But both QBs are gone for next year, as Perrillous was dismissed after a variety of incidents over the years made coach Les Miles hit his breaking point. Now a redshirt freshman, a true freshman, or sophomore will take over, none of whom have real experience. And that's not the only hole on the offense, though the others at least have good options to fill them. Jacob Hester (1,103 yards, 12 TDs) is gone, but four other backs return who combined for 1,396 yards and 15 TDs while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Earl Doucet is gone, but the two top receivers Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd (7 TDs) are back. On the offensive line four starters return, led by senior Herman Johnson and junior Ciron Black. So even with the loss of some key players, LSU's offense is strong all around—except at quarterback. The Tigers generally lived by the run last year, and should do so even more this year.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #12      Adj. Rush Def: #15     Adj. Pass Def: #17
The key loss on this side of the ball is clearly Glen Dorsey, the best defensive lineman in college football last year. Dorsey was hurt a lot of the year, so the dropoff might not be as great as expected—they've learned to play without him already. Also, three starters return—Kirston Pittman, Tyson Jackson, and Marlon Favorite—as well as Charles Alexander (who started in place of Favorite some games) and Ricky Jean-Francois, the BCS Bowl MVP who was held out most of the year, making the line the strongest part of the defense. Other areas aren't in as good of shape: the linebackers lose Ali Highsmith (101 tackles) though Darry Beckwith returns; the secondary returns only Curtis Taylor, losing three players who totalled 14 interceptions including Craig Steltz (101 tackles). LSU always has good passing defense, so they won't be terrible, but they won't be as good as last year either. The defense overall loses its top three tacklers, not to mention defensive coordinator Bo Pelini, now head coach at Nebraska.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Colt David returns after kicking 26 of 33 field goals in '07 and 66 of 66 extra points. Punter Patrick Fisher (excellent 44.5 average) is gone, and either Bradley Dalfrey or Josh Jasper will replace him.
Recruiting: LSU is a recruiting machine lately, and the last two classes were top 15 easily with '07 in the top 5. At cornerback, two '08 recruits, Patrick Peterson (nee Patrick Johnson) and Brandon Taylor, could see playing time or even start. Ryan Baker and Kellen Theriot look to be backups at linebacker. Newcomers from '07 are well-represented in the 2nd string and of course by likely starter Jarrett Lee at QB. One highly-touted recruit, WR DeAngelo Benton, is from both the '07 and '08 classes, but still hasn't qualified to enroll.
2008 Season Outlook: What can be said about a national championship year? Except that, even though it felt like one all year, near the end it didn't look like it could happen. Certainly the 45-0 shutout of Mississippi State was expected, but in retrospect that had to be one of the most dominant performances of the year. Unless the 48-7 crushing of Virginia Tech counts for more, which it should. One more shutout, Middle Tennessee, 44-0, and that was the best we saw of the LSU Tigers. After that, it was all about trying to regain the form of the first three games.

The Tigers handled South Carolina, who looked sharp at the time, and beat Florida but had to risk it on 4th down several times, at home, to insure a win. By the time LSU lost to Kentucky in triple overtime they looked like a tired team—tired of facing all these tough opponents. Injuries were taking their toll. The worst would come in the next game, a close contest with Auburn, where Glen Dorsey was hurt. The defense that dominated the first several games was gone. The Tigers struggled to beat Alabama; it seemed like another loss, and with it, the death toll for a national championship, loomed at every corner. But they kept dodging it. Giving up 24 to Mississippi? Something wasn't right. Facing Arkansas, the triple overtime jinx hit again, and LSU was 10-2. No team with two losses had ever won the national championship. At the same time, in the era before overtime, LSU would have been 10-0-2, and still a legit contender. As it turned out, they were; every other team that could reasonably claim to be worthy suffered a second loss, and after beating Tennessee in the SEC championship game, the Tigers played for the title, whipping Ohio State, 38-24. The championship dream that seemed gone came back in an instant.

LSU 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Appalachian State	70%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Troy	66%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	North Texas	96%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*Auburn	47%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi State	65%	W
10/11	Sat	@	*Florida	31%	L
10/18	Sat	@	*South Carolina	47%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Georgia	49%	L
11/1	Sat	vs.	Tulane	86%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Alabama	57%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Mississippi	70%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Arkansas	57%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

LSU has only four road games, but three of them are Auburn, Florida, and South Carolina. They also play Georgia at home. Though three of these look close, they could lose all four and finish 8-4 this year, and I wouldn't be surprised. Everyone assumes the national champ becomes a dynasty, but they can just as easily have 4 losses the following year—see Florida in 2007. The Tigers are one of the best teams in the nation despite their personnel losses, but their schedule is murder.

13. Texas Longhorns     (pre-season AP #11, USA/Coaches #10)

2007 Results:    Record: 10-3   Bowl: beat ASU 52-34 (Holiday Bowl)   Poll finish: #10 AP #10 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #15    Success: #21    Combined: #15
The Longhorns nearly rank in the top ten in the country, yet are only 5th in their conference.
Offense (7 RS)     '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #12    Adj. Rush Yards: #15    Adj. Pass Yards: #35
The big loss on offense is Jamaal Charles, who bolted for the pros after an astounding 2nd half of the 2007 season. Overall he had 1,619 yards and 18 TDs. Texas gets their 2nd leading rusher back, though: quarterback Colt McCoy. McCoy's sophomore slump is well-documented, but he still threw for 3,303 yards and 22 TDs. Add almost 500 yards and 4 TDs rushing, and what was a slump to McCoy is a banner year for most QBs (disregarding the 18 interceptions). With Quan Cosby and Jordan Shipley to throw to, and behind a powerful line that returns four starters, look for McCoy to have a much better junior year and potentially be the Heisman candidate that people expected in '07. Without Charles, the offense will be more dependent on the QB position, and even though versatile John Chiles will get time at QB, he won't cut far into McCoy's stats; Chiles might have more rushing yards than passing and could even be moved to tailback if no solid answer is found there. The Longhorns will have a 300 lb. tight end this year as Greg Clark has moved there from left guard.
Defense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #37    Adj. Rush Def: #10    Adj. Pass Def: #87
The rushing defense was the Longhorn defense's saving grace in 2007, as they couldn't defend the pass well all year. Despite losing two starters, in practical terms they have three back in the front four (you do the math), with Brian Orakpo and Lamarr Houston joined by part-time starter Aaron Lewis and '06 starter Roy Miller. Only one starter, Rashad Bobino, returns at linebacker, but new starters Jared Norton and Roddrick Muckelroy are every bit as good as those they replace, and were the #6 and #10 tacklers on the team last year. The secondary is a major concern; after a poor year in terms of yardage yielded, they lose three starters, including #1 and #3 tacklers Marcus Griffin and Brandon Foster, who combined for 9 interceptions (over half the team's total). Ryan Palmer returns at corner, and the others are good athletes, but Texas will be facing the best quarterbacks in the nation in the Big Twelve so this unit will be tested many times in '08. Because of this, Texas may employ a nickel defense against selected teams to provide more coverage. The recent injury of listed starter Ishie Oduegwu (out indefinitely) leaves the safety spots with zero practical experience.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Texas is set at kicker with Ryan Bailey, who made 18 of 22 field goals last season as well as 58 of 59 PATs. Not so at punter, where Justin Moore is gone after averaging 41 yds per punt. He shared duties with Trevor Gerland, who returns but averaged just 37.7 (Gerland wasn't the short punter last year—that was Colt McCoy, who put 3 of 3 attempts inside the 20). Gerland may keep the job, though with freshman Justin Tucker and walk-on John Gold in the mix, it might be another punter-by-committee year.
Recruiting: Texas had a top-five class in 2007 and another top 20 class in '08. A redshirt from '07, Fozzy Whittaker is one of the many running backs looking to take over for Charles, and defensive backs Earl Thomas and Ben Wells are ready to help rebuild the secondary, along with '08 recruits Aaron Williams and Nolan Brewster.
2008 Season Outlook: The '07 season looked like it was going bad fast—losses to Kansas State and then Oklahoma put the Longhorns at 4-2, and 0-2 in conference play. Against Nebraska they were down 17-3 in the 2nd half but Jamaal Charles exploded for three straight touchdowns, including an 86-yarder, to win the game. Charles had 290 yards in that game, and also keyed the annual big comeback against Oklahoma State with a 75-yard run, and had 174 yards to help win the 59-43 shootout with Texas Tech. The Longhorns finally came up short against Texas A&M, 38-30, but took it to Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl to finish with 10 wins.

Texas 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Florida Atlantic	71%	W
9/6	Sat	@	Texas-El Paso	77%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Arkansas	64%	W
9/20	Sat	vs.	Rice	87%	W
10/4	Sat	@	*Colorado	57%	W
10/11	Sat	N	*Oklahoma	40%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Missouri	46%	L
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	63%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Texas Tech	37%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Baylor	80%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Kansas	40%	L
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Texas A&M	66%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

The Longhorn pre-conference schedule is a breeze, but once they get into Big Twelve play it's a different matter. Their road games are Colorado, Texas Tech, and Kansas, all teams they might beat at home but they'll be fortunate to win more than one on the road. Oklahoma and Missouri are tough prospects as well. This is the wrong year to have a questionable pass defense in the Big 12 and Texas will need some luck to reach 10 wins again, bowl game included.