SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #51 to #55. To see the full list, click here.
51. Washington Huskies |
2007 Results: Record: 4-9 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #43 Success: #68 Combined: #46
Easily the best team with 9 losses last year, the Huskies fell prey to a tough schedule; this year's might even be tougher.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #28 Adj. Rush Yards: #8 Adj. Pass Yards: #86
Jake Locker became what people thought Tim Tebow might be: a great running QB whose passing was suspect at best. Rushing for almost 1,000 yards last season (13 TDs), Locker completed less than 50% for just over 2,000 yards with a 14:15 TD:INT ratio. Bringing those numbers up might be difficult as the top pass catcher back is tight end Mike Gottlieb (136 yards). The running game may be even more reliant on Locker, too; lead rusher Louis Rankin (1,294 yards) is gone and backup J.R. Hasty was booted, though solid fullback Paul Homer remains, and three starters return to the offensive line. The expectation is that a batch of freshmen will restock the running back and receiver positions, and until they mature, Locker will have a lot riding on his shoulders.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #64 Adj. Rush Def: #73 Adj. Pass Def: #69
The defense has issues, too. One starter returns to the front four, and though he's a good one (Daniel Te'o-Nesheim, 8.5 sacks) the rushing defense will suffer. The inside LB slot is solid between part-time starters Trenton Tuiasosopo and Donald Butler, but E.J. Savannah is both injured and ineligible. The secondary is in better shape with three starters. In all the Huskies return 5 of their top 7 tacklers, but Savannah was #1 and his return would have helped immensely.
Kicking Game (2 RS): The kicking game is a bright spot for the Huskies. Punter Jared Ballman had a net of 36.2 last season, and kicker Ryan Perkins hit 15 of 20 field goals.
Recruiting: Ty Willingham's recruiting was much-maligned at Notre Dame, where a top 5 class is expected every year, but for Stanford he did very well. At Washington, the last two classes have certainly been acceptable. The '06 class gave the team Jake Locker. The '07 class ranked just outside the top 30, and the '08 class is in the top 20. This year help is needed at running back and wide receiver, and a number of true freshmen may be called on: Anthony Boyles, Devin Aguilar, Chris Polk (originally committed to USC), Jermaine Kearse, and Cody Bruns are all vying for receiving slots, and Terrance Dailey, Johri Fogerson, and David Freeman for reps at RB. For a detailed look at Ty's recruiting classes, see this excellent overview by John Berkowitz.
Washington 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | @ | *Oregon | 29% | L | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | Brigham Young | 44% | L | |||
9/13 | Sat | vs. | Oklahoma | 30% | L | |||
9/27 | Sat | vs. | *Stanford | 57% | W | |||
10/4 | Sat | @ | *Arizona | 39% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon State | 54% | W | |||
10/25 | Sat | vs. | Notre Dame | 60% | W | |||
11/1 | Sat | @ | *Southern California | 33% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona State | 43% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *UCLA | 55% | W | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *Washington State | 51% | W | |||
12/6 | Sat | @ | *California | 41% | L | |||
Favored: 5-7 Projected: 5-7 |
2008 Season Outlook It started out well, then hit a wall. Manhandling Syracuse, then defeating a Boise State team that hadn't lost in 21 months—not to mention Locker's dynamic play—created expectations of a breakthrough year. That fell flat as Washington went on a six-game losing streak—for the fourth time in four seasons. They played well at the end, beating Stanford and Cal, and playing Arizona, Oregon State, Washington State, and Hawaii all close but blew either big leads, or late leads, in almost all of those losses. These close games vs. good teams are why the Huskies ranked #43 in my Strength power rating but their Success rank was only #68. An underrated team last year, they deserved better.
And this year should be at least a bit better. Though they wont be as good (at least until the freshmen get some experience), they should win more of the close games they dropped last season. Oregon State, UCLA, and Washington State may be on the wrong side this time. And though there aren't too many other prime opportunites for achieving bowl eligibility, that this year there should be no six-game losing streak.
52. Oregon State Beavers |
2007 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Beat Maryland 21-14 (Emerald Bowl) Poll finish: #25 AP #26 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #22 Success: #23 Combined: #21
Due to huge losses on defense, Oregon State takes one of the biggest falls in my pre-season ratings.
Offense (6.5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #41 Adj. Rush Yards: #13 Adj. Pass Yards: #98
Oregon State was a running team last year; lead rusher Yvenson Bernard gained almost as many yards (1,214) as starting QB Sean Canfield (1,661) and had more TDs (13) than Canfield and #2 QB Lyle Moevao combined (11). The two QBs also had 21 interceptions. Both mediocre QBs are back to battle for starter rights, and Bernard is gone, which is the main problem on the offense. The Beavers' 2nd leading rusher (594 yards on 50 carries, 11.7 ave!) was receiver James Rodgers, utilizing his speed on special plays and scoring three times. A number of experienced receivers return, but the most heralded is Sammie Stroughter, coming back from an injury last season. Three starters are back on the line; oft-injured Jeremy Perry's ability to stay healthy has been questioned, but he vowed to play the entire season [update: he's already going to miss the first game, and his overall status is questionable.] Another part-time starter, Tavita Thompson, is due back in November.
Defense (3 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #14 Adj. Rush Def: #1 Adj. Pass Def: #39
The Beavers were a clear #1 in rushing defense last season; there were six games in which their opponent had more rushing attempts than rushing yards (Maryland was 25 rsh 19 yds in the bowl game). It's fair to say that this won many games for them last season. Not a single starter returns, however, from the fron seven in the 4-3. Mike Riley rotates a lot of players in front, but this is a lot to make up for; the linebackers lost comprise three of their top four tacklers from last year. They're looking for a lot of help from JUCOs, but one slated starter, lineman Simi Kuli, is touch-and-go eligibility wise. The three returning defensive starters are all in the secondary, and despite the defensive line's losses, the two leading sack specialists (Victor Butler with 10.5, Slade Lewis with 9) are back. So while the rushing defense has nowhere to go but down, the passing defense should be much better. There is some trouble at safety, though: projected starter Bryan Payton is off the team, and leading returning tackler Al Afalava is suspended for the first game (Stanford).
Kicking Game (0 RS): Alexis Serna is gone, opening up both the kicking and punting spots. He was a fill-in starter as punter and shouldn't be hard to replace in that category. Redshirt freshman Kyle Harper was listed in the spring, but walk-on Johnny Hekker is competing. The kicking chores should go to Justin Kahut, who may share Serna's long range but unpredictable accuracy.
Recruiting: The Beavers are fairly low on the recruiting totem pole for the Pac-10, the last two classes averaging about 50th in the nation. Along with the aforementioned Kuli, top recruits this year include Jacquizz Rogers, potential starter at running back; JUCO offensive lineman John Ioane; and JUCO Stephen Paea, who will likely start at defensive tackle. Oddly, another JUCO, offensive lineman Vil Nau, lost his eligibility by enrolling too soon. Only three true freshman will be playing this season.
Oregon State 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | @ | *Stanford | 48% | L | |||
9/6 | Sat | @ | Penn State | 35% | L | |||
9/13 | Sat | vs. | Hawaii | 60% | W |
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9/25 | Thu | vs. | *Southern California | 40% | L | |||
10/2 | Thu | @ | Utah | 36% | L | |||
10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 58% | W | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 47% | L | |||
10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona State | 42% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *UCLA | 46% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *California | 48% | L | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *Arizona | 39% | L | |||
11/29 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon | 34% | L | |||
Favored: 2-10 Projected: 5-7 |
2008 Season Outlook 2007 started slow but built up some steam and finished strong. Beating Utah in the opener didn't look impressive at the time, but it was; and losing to Cincinnati 34-13 looked terrible, but it really wasn't; nor was the loss to Arizona State. The Beavers were 2-3 and seemed to be struggling, but they'd gotten past the tough part of their schedule. From there they won three straight, including a huge upset of Cal, and after a loss to USC, they wont three more in a row, finishing with a win over a depleted Oregon team. The Beavers finished with the bowl win over Maryland. Along the way they held 10 of their 13 opponents to 100 or fewer rushing yards, with seven under 50 yards.
Don't look for that kind of performance from the defense again. And nine wins might be a pipe dream this season. It looks like a very bad-luck year for the Beavers, with losses in several close games. The most unfortunate part is the Stanford game, a tossup that would have gone to Oregon State if not for Afalava's suspension; it also put their cumulative projection below 5.5 wins. That said, 2-10 is an absolute lowball estimate; the Beavers could reach six wins by winning tossups against Stanford, Washington, UCLA, and Cal, and the last two may be easier with Tavita Thompson returning in November. But winning all four is a long shot, and I think the Beavers are bound to have a very disappointing losing season in 2008.
53. UCLA Bruins |
2007 Results: Record: 6-7 Bowl: lost to BYU 17-16 (Las Vegas Bowl) Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #33 Success: #36 Combined: #32
Last year's most erratic team hopes for some stability this season, but the quarterback injury problems are back already, which doesn't portend well.
Offense (3.5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #59 Adj. Rush Yards: #26 Adj. Pass Yards: #87
The problems UCLA faced last season were related to the injuries at quarterback. Four different QBs started, mainly Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan; combined they just over 50%, 1,700 yards, 11 TDs and 8 INTs. The others added another 500 yards, 1 TD and 7 INTs. Technically both Cowan and Olson return to the team, but both were injured during the same spring practice, Cowan done for the season. Olson returned in the fall to camp and promptly reinjured himself, and will likely miss 1/2 the season. Hence the half-starter credit. The other three returnees are tight end Logan Paulsen (5th leading receiver) and linemen Micah Kia and Micah Reed and neither Micah started full-time last season and Kia starts the season with a broken hand. This leaves holes all over: the running game loses one of its two main backs and the other, Kahlil Bell, is recovering from injury; the two top receivers are gone; and the line loses two full-time starters, three part-time starters, and prospective starter Sean Sheller (knee). I don't know how the Bruins could have a more haphazard year on offense than '07, but might in '08, unless vaunted offensive coordinator Norm Chow can work some magic.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #13 Adj. Rush Def: #4 Adj. Pass Def: #44
The defense's #13 ranking is misleading due to their shutout of Oregon when the Ducks were led by freshman QBs. Still, holding USC to 24 and BYU to 17 twice isn't bad. They accomplished this by shutting down the run, limiting opponents to double-digits six times. But the line has to replace two starters—Bruce Davis and Kevin Brown—who accounted for almost half of the defense's 39 sacks. Kyle Bosworth and Reggie Carter return to the linebacking corps, but the secondary is splintered, losing three starters including their two top tacklers Dennis Keyes and Chris Horton, as well as Trey Brown (5 INTs).
Kicking Game (2 RS): At least the Bruins get their kicker and punter back. Aaron Perez netted a solid 37.6 per punt, and Kai Forbath was 25 of 30, including 5 of 5 from 50+. He was 7 of 9 from inside the 30, one of those being the blocked last-second kick that would have won the Las Vegas Bowl.
Recruiting: Rick Neuheisal's first recruiting class looks like a winner, ranking near the top 10 in the nation after the '07 class fell short of the top 25. True freshmen Aundre Dean and Milton Knox will compete for time at running back, and Dean will likely start if Bell isn't 100%. On defense, Rahim Moore will start and Aaron Hester will backup the secondary, with Datone Jones playing on the line.
UCLA 2008 schedule & forecast |
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9/1 | Mon | vs. | Tennessee | 46% | L | |||
9/13 | Sat | @ | Brigham Young | 36% | L | |||
9/20 | Sat | vs. | *Arizona | 45% | L | |||
9/27 | Sat | vs. | Fresno State | 48% | L | |||
10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Washington State | 57% | W | |||
10/11 | Sat | @ | *Oregon | 28% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Stanford | 56% | W | |||
10/25 | Sat | @ | *California | 40% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Oregon State | 53% | W | |||
11/15 | Sat | @ | *Washington | 45% | L | |||
11/28 | Fri | @ | *Arizona State | 35% | L | |||
12/6 | Sat | vs. | *Southern California | 39% | L | |||
Favored: 3-9 Projected: 5-7 |
2008 Season Outlook It was a frustrating year for UCLA, to say the least. They returned scads of starters, but when the injuries took hold, the team had no consistency from one week to the next. Examples: beating BYU one week, then losing to Utah 44-6 the next; stomping Oregon State 40-14 on the road, then scoring 34 fewer points in a loss to lowly Notre Dame, at home, followed by an upset of Cal; losing to Washington State and Arizona, then playing ASU close before shutting out Oregon. After all of this, the Bruins could have been in the Rose Bowl with an upset of USC and a few other things falling into place. But they lost, dropping them to the Las Vegas Bowl.
The immediate future doesn't look bright, either. Tennessee and BYU are strong teams this season, as is Fresno State to a lesser degree. And the Pac-10 is tough, as usual. There are only two solid wins on the schedule, and three others that look close and could make them 5-7. Reaching bowl eligibility this year would require an upset, and a winning record would take some surprises. Not that this team isn't full of surprises, so maybe they'll once again do the unexpected and compete for the Pac-10 crown?
54. Purdue Boilermakers |
2007 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: beat Central Michigan 51-48 (Motor City Bowl) Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #51 Success: #60 Combined: #54
Purdue wants to finally have breakthrough season in Curtis Painter and Joe Tiller's final season.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #35 Adj. Rush Yards: #86 Adj. Pass Yards: #15
Curtis Painter had Heisman-consideration-worthy stats going until too many other quarterbacks on better teams crowded him out. The end tally was 3,846 yards and 29 TDs vs. 11 interceptions. This year the yards may be harder to come by, at least initially, as only Greg Orton returns from the fleet of receivers. Although the rushing numbers were subdued in favor of the pass, Purdue has two solid backs in Kory Sheets (859 yards, 9 TDs) and Jaycen Taylor (560 yds, 4 TD), who took turns putting up often-impressive numbers. The line returns three starters, and until the new wide receivers get their footing the ground game might have to carry the Boilermakers.
Defense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #59 Adj. Rush Def: #50 Adj. Pass Def: #94
Brown, Baker, and Magee might sound like a law firm but it's the three returning starters to the Purdue front four, looking to improve their middling rushing defense. There is trouble at linebacker, though, despite the return of #2 tackler Anthony Heygood (14 tackles for loss); they lose the other two starters and many of the backups. The secondary gave up a lot of yards to some not-so-pass-happy teams, and while two starters return, they lose #1 tackler Terrell Vinson and #3 Justin Scott who had 8 interceptions between them in '07. All told, the Boilers lose Five of their top six tacklers.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Kicker Chris Summers (56/56 PATs) returns for Purdue but punter Jared Armstrong (36.6 net) is gone. Summers is expected to take over punting duties in addition to placekicking and kickoffs.
Recruiting: Recruiting didn't suffer for Tiller's last season, though it wasn't all that great before it. Purdue has been an average (for I-A; poor for the Big Ten) recruiting team the last few years, ranking around #60. The areas hit hardest—receiver and linebacker—will have no shortage of newcomers vying for playing time. For the former, JUCOs Arsenio Curry and Aaron Valentin as well as frosh Jordan Brewer are favorites; Chris Carlino and Dwayne Beckford may see time at the latter. Update: Brewer and Beckford didn't qualify. That's how recruiting goes sometimes.
Purdue 2008 schedule & forecast |
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9/6 | Sat | vs. | Northern Colorado | 97% | W |
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9/13 | Sat | vs. | Oregon | 35% | L | |||
9/20 | Sat | vs. | Central Michigan | 61% | W | |||
9/27 | Sat | @ | Notre Dame | 52% | W | |||
10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Penn State | 41% | L | |||
10/11 | Sat | @ | *Ohio State | 12% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | @ | *Northwestern | 52% | W | |||
10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Minnesota | 62% | W | |||
11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Michigan | 47% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | @ | *Michigan State | 43% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | @ | *Iowa | 47% | L | |||
11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Indiana | 56% | W | |||
Favored: 6-6 Projected: 6-6 |
2008 Season Outlook Purdue pretty much beats who they're supposed to and loses to the big name teams, which means that no season is ever too much of a downer no anything to get too excited about. 2007 was no exception, as they started strong against the weaker teams, going 5-0. They even beat Notre Dame, as they often do on that team's down years. Then they lose to Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, while beating Iowa and Northwestern. Losses to Michigan State and Indiana put them in the lower half of the Big Ten, but they still got to a bowl game, where they played a team they already beat, and beat them again, as expected, though the game got interesting when Central Michigan almost came back to win.
Once again I don't foresee Purdue beating the big three. The warmup against Northern Colorado will be a great time to get the new receiver corps ready, then it's a tough test against Oregon followed by the Chippewas once again. An upside exists, as there are only two prohibitive losses on the schedule, but I doubt they'll stray too far from .500; a close win at Notre Dame might be surrendered in return for beating Iowa on the road, for example. Could an extraordinary season happen in '08? It could if the receivers come through and Painter really has an incredible year; and just maybe in Joe Tiller's last season they'll beat Michigan for the first time since 2000.
55. Iowa Hawkeyes |
2007 Results: Record: 6-6 Bowl: n/a Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #67 Success: #71 Combined: #69
No bowl game plus losing to Iowa State equals disappointed Hawkeye fans. Will '08 be any different?
Offense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #112 Adj. Rush Yards: #88 Adj. Pass Yards: #107
Who is to blame for Iowa's pathetic 2007 offense, the worst of any BCS conference team? Many point to QB Jake Christiansen, who had a mediocre year at best, completing just 54% (rounded up) for 2,269 yards. His TD/INT ratio wasn't bad though, 17 to 6, and Iowa's receivers weren't the greatest, with the best kicked off the team or injured and the rest dropping passes. Then there was the depleted offensive line, which couldn't protect the quarterback, or even clear the way for solid backs Albert Young and Damian Sims, who still managed 1,500 yards combined in their senior seasons. This year the O-line is stacked with experience, with three full-time starters back and four half-time, losing only Dace Richardson (injured) in the entire 2-deep. Only one top receiver (James Cleveland) was kicked off the team this off-season, so two of the top three return, plus Andy Brodell and tight end Tony Moeaki return from injury. So we should be better able to judge Christiansen this season, as the passing game ought to substantially improve. The problem is the running game: no backs who took a handoff in '07 return, leaving backup QB Ricky Stanzi the leading returning rusher with 13 yards on 1 carry. The Hawks have a number of stopgap solutions and should be able to find someone to run behind the experienced O-line.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #16 Adj. Rush Def: #28 Adj. Pass Def: #64
The defense saved the Hawks from a truly bad season in '07, and they return some of the best players while losing a few as well. The D-line is anchored by two tackles, all-american candidate Mitch King and fellow three-year starter Matt Kroul, but they lose two full-time starters (Kenny Iwabema and Bryan Mattison) at end. The linebackers were Iowa's top tacklers in '07 and they lose #1 Mike Humpal and #3 Mike Klinkenborg (who would have been #1 if healthy). The secondary was last year's weak spot; the Hawks could shut down the run but were always vulnerable to the pass. Again, like the front four, two solid starters return at one position (safety) but both corners are gone. In all a fair number of losses, but Iowa has depth on both offense and defense this year, with the bulk of the 2nd and 3rd string returning to fill in the gaps.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Daniel Murray took over for Austin Signor after the first few games last year; Murray returns while Signor recently transferred. Punter Ryan Donohue (36.0 net) is back as well.
Recruiting: Kirk Ferentz had a solid (top 35) recruiting class in 2007, and many of them showed up on the field that year as Iowa played 11 true freshmen. Still, for a team that wants (and expects) to be a top 25 program, the occasional near-top 25 class isn't going to cut it, and indeed 2008 was far lower, just barely in the top 50, with '09 recruiting starting very slow. But JUCO transfer Nate Guillory might play a big role this season, as the Hawks need running backs bad. They also got Jeff Brinson, a freshman RB from Florida. Iowa's storied off-season woes included an incident with defensive line recruit Riley Reiff; no word yet on his exact status with the team. Offensive line recruit James Ferentz has stayed out of trouble, but I hear the coach has kept a pretty close eye on him.
Iowa 2008 schedule & forecast |
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8/30 | Sat | vs. | Maine | 79% | W | |||
9/6 | Sat | vs. | Florida International | 78% | W | |||
9/13 | Sat | vs. | Iowa State | 67% | W | |||
9/20 | Sat | @ | Pittsburgh | 37% | L |
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9/27 | Sat | vs. | *Northwestern | 59% | W | |||
10/4 | Sat | @ | *Michigan State | 42% | L | |||
10/11 | Sat | @ | *Indiana | 50% | L | |||
10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Wisconsin | 46% | L | |||
11/1 | Sat | @ | *Illinois | 43% | L | |||
11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Penn State | 41% | L | |||
11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Purdue | 53% | W | |||
11/22 | Sat | @ | *Minnesota | 56% | W | |||
Favored: 6-6 Projected: 7-5 |
2008 Season Outlook The Hawks' defense is what kept them from a losing record. When the offense couldn't score, which was often, the defense picked up the slack. Iowa scored just 16 against woeful Northern Illinois, but the defense held them to 3, then led a shutout of Syracuse. The D held Iowa State to 15 (5 field goals) and Wisconsin to 17 but the O could not deliver. Both sides lapsed in losses to Indiana and Penn State, but then the defense again rose to the occasion, holding Illinois to 6 points (helped by Ron Zook's odd penalty refusals and a called-back Illini TD) so 10 points was enough for an upset victory. After losing to Purdue 31-6 they put together a three-game streak (offense scoring just enough to win) and seemed headed for a bowl before the most disappointing game of the season, a home loss to Western Michigan, spoiled their plans.
This year the offense should be more reliable, and the defense should still get the job done. The early schedule is much kinder this year, if that's possible. It's hard to top Northern Illinois and Syracuse as cushion games, but they did, with I-AA Maine and Florida International, while rival (and recent nemesis) Iowa State is a home game this season. The contest at Pitt is the only upgrade, as the Big Ten schedule again has no Michigan or Ohio State. But after a win over Northwestern, the Hawks face a rough five-game stretch, where they'll need to win one—probably Indiana or Wisconsin—and then not drop either of the last two to have a true winning record. It might be very close; the cumulative projection has them on the cusp of 6 vs. 7 wins. Assuming the O-line and receivers improve, it will be upon Christiansen's shoulders to upgrade his game if the Hawks are to achieve eight or more victories and convince fans things are going back in the right direction.
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