SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.
Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)
This installment covers teams from #41 to #45. To see the full list, click here.
| 41. Arkansas Razorbacks |
2007 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: L to Missouri 38-7 (Cotton Bowl) Poll finish: #31 AP #39 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #19 Success: #22 Combined: #20
Arkansas is due for an off year after the loss of offensive engine Darren McFadden and a slew of off-field issues hamper the Razorbacks.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #9 Adj. Rush Yards: #4 Adj. Pass Yards: #109
Most have focused on the loss of Darren McFadden (1,830 yards, 16 TDs, 4 TD passes), and it is daunting for sure, but if Felix Jones (1,162 yards, 11 TDs) had returned, the effect would have been minimized, and some have suggested that Jones might have been the Barry Sanders to McFadden's Thurman Thomas...or at least the Cedric Benson to his Ricky Williams. In any case both were first round draft choices, leaving the cupboard bare for the Razorbacks. Much-maligned Casey Dick (1,695 yards, 18 TDs, 11 INTs) returns at quarterback, but he had some gutsy plays in the win over LSU and will do better than people expect in an offense that will have to rely less on the run. Whether a pass-oriented offense works depends not only on Dick's improvement but also finding receivers. Starters London Crawford and Andrew Davie return at WR and TE, but the four top pass-catchers (including McFadden, Jones, and fullback Peyton Hillis) are gone. TE Ben Cleveland returns from '06 to help. The line features three returning starters, but it will have to adjust to primarily blocking for Dick rather than opening for McFadden and Jones.
Defense (4 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #52 Adj. Rush Def: #66 Adj. Pass Def: #22
Arkansas' losses tended to be high-scoring affairs, thanks to the productive offense and mediocre D. The rushing defense was the biggest problem and there is good news as the front four is stocked, with essentially 3 1/2 starters back. There's trouble at linebacker though. Things looked good with Freddie Fairchild and half-time starter Elston Forte back, but Fairchild was dismissed over the summer. Furthermore, projected starter Wendel Davis had law trouble plus a knee injury to deal with, while backup Freddie Burton is suspended for the first two games for DUI. Then there's the secondary, which was great in '07 but loses all four starters, including leading tackler Matt Hewitt. There is depth from reserves, but all in all Arkansas loses their top six tacklers and the seventh, defensive end Ernest Mitchell, had legal trouble (and knee woes) himself this summer but seems to have emerged unscathed.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker and punter Alex Tejada and Jeremy Davis return; both are solid if unspectacular.
Recruiting: This is Bobby Petrino's first year, so some of the recruits were Houston Nutt's; this may be why the last two classes ranked about the same (30th or so). They did get QB Ryan Mallett as a transfer from Michigan, but he won't play until '09. Contributing this year from the '08 class may be running backs De'Anthony Curtis, a potential starter, and Dennis Johnson, while Joe Adams should see time at wide receiver.
Arkansas 2008 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | vs. | Western Illinois | 76% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Louisiana-Monroe | 71% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | @ | Texas | 36% | L | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | *Alabama | 46% | L | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Florida | 28% | L | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Auburn | 37% | L | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | @ | *Kentucky | 43% | L | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Mississippi | 59% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | Tulsa | 59% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | @ | *South Carolina | 36% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *Mississippi State | 47% | L | |||
| 11/29 | Sat | vs. | *Louisiana State | 43% | L | |||
Favored: 4-8 Projected: 6-6 |
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2008 Season Outlook Arkansas endured a successful but frustrating 2007, where it seemed the defense couldn't make Darren McFadden's accomplishments pay off with key wins. They opening win over Troy was actually one of the better games of the season, but then tight losses to Alabama and Kentucky put the Razorbacks in a 1-2 hole. Two creampuff victories were followed by a 9-7 loss to Auburn, the one game where both the offense did poorly and the defense did well. Three more wins made them 6-3, but it still didn't seem like the team was clicking, especially after a 34-13 loss to Tennessee. But two games later, the triple overtime win over #1 LSU gave fans a game to identify the season with and an 8-4 record. The bowl game against Missouri was best forgotten.
This year the SEC wins will be even harder to come by. A couple of easy wins at the beginning lead right into a game at Texas, then Alabama, Florida, and Auburn are next. Mississippi and Tulsa look like wins but that's it. They could beat Mississippi State, or Alabama, Kentucky, or even LSU, so 5-7 is probably about right but 6-6 looks like a ceiling for this transition/rebuilding season.
| 42. Michigan State Spartans |
2007 Results: Record: 7-6 Bowl: lost to Boston College 24-21 (Champs Sports) Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #40 Success: #54 Combined: #42
Michigan State lost six games last year, all of them close at the end. They should be just as good this year—can they win the close ones and improve their record in '08?
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #24 Adj. Rush Yards: #14 Adj. Pass Yards: #65
The two keys to the Spartan offense are both back: running back Javon Ringer, who rushed for 1,447 yards and 6 TDs and added 300 receiving yards; and quarterback Brian Hoyer (2,725 yards, 20TDs, 11 INT). Ringer is actually the leading return receiver, as Hoyer loses 14 TDs worth in Devin Thomas and Kellen Davis, but starters Mark Dell and Deon Curry are back. The offensive line is sturdy enough, with three of the five players with the most starts in '07 back, to keep the offense productive.
Defense (5 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #66 Adj. Rush Def: #48 Adj. Pass Def: #59
The front four returns just one full-time starter, but others with starting experience return and Cincinnati transfer Trevor Anderson has already done well enough to earn a starting spot at end. The linebacking unit has two returnees, including leading tackler Greg Jones. The secondary was just average last year but much experience and two starters return including #2 tackler Kendell Davis-Clark. On the downside the passing defense suffers from the losses on the line, where top sack artists Jonal Saint-Dic (10) and Ervin Baldwin (8.5) are gone, and during fall camp expected starting safety Roderick Jenrette was "told to take a leave of absence" to handle an undisclosed personal issue. Bottom line, he may not return.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Brett Swinson and Aaron Bates are both adequate at kicker and punter and return for the fall.
Recruiting: There was no big improvement in recruiting from John L. Smith's last year to Mark Dantonio's first, perhaps due to the transition; both classes ranked around #50, decent by I-A standards but not BCS conferences. But now that Dantonio is settled in, that may change; the early indications for 2009 show that MSU might have a breakthrough class on its hands, perhaps even in the top ten. The big catch of 2008 was receiver Fred Smith, who has shown good ability in practice and will be in the lineup as a true freshman.
Michigan State 2008 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | @ | California | 44% | L | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Eastern Michigan | 72% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Florida Atlantic | 61% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | vs. | Notre Dame | 62% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | @ | *Indiana | 54% | W | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa | 58% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Northwestern | 56% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Ohio State | 24% | L | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Michigan | 44% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Wisconsin | 50% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | vs. | *Purdue | 57% | W | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *Penn State | 38% | L | |||
Favored: 8-4 Projected: 6-6 |
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2008 Season Outlook For the last several years Michigan State has followed a pattern: start with several wins and look promising, then lose a "turning point" game, drop a lot of games in the Big Ten and finish with a middling record. Last year followed the plan, with four wins including Pitt and Notre Dame, then lost to Wisconsin by three points (third year in a row the first loss was by 3) in a game the could have won, and followed with a loss to Northwestern at home. In all they dropped five of six before recovering to beat Purdue and Penn State, finishing strong for the first time since 1999. They played Boston College pretty well but mistakes doomed them.
The Spartans six losses were by 3, 7 (OT), 7, 7 (OT), 4, and 3 points. They also won two close games and the Ohio State game wasn't really a 7 point game, but if they'd gone 4-4 instead of 2-6 in these they would have been a more representative 9-4 last year. And that's what they could do this year. After a tough road game at Cal, there are six winnable games in a row, followed by Ohio State and Michigan. They can beat Wisconsin, though that's another tough one, and Purdue, before finishing at Penn State. Overall the wins are tight enough to project a cumulative 6-6, but I see another winning record and bowl game for this team.
| 43. Illinois Fighting Illini (pre-season: #20 AP, #19 USA-Coaches) |
2007 Results: Record: 9-4 Bowl: Lost to USC, 49-17 (Rose Bowl) Poll finish: #20 AP #18 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #27 Success: #26 Combined: #27
The Illini won't be as good as last year, but can still have a great year in the Big Ten.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #32 Adj. Rush Yards: #6 Adj. Pass Yards: #108
Illinois had two key players in 2007. One was Rashard Mendenhall, who carried the team early on and finished with 1,681 rushing yards and 17 TDs. Coming on strong in the 2nd half of the season was quarterback Isiah "Juice" Williams. His passing was only adequate (57%, 1,743 yards, 12/13 TD/INT), but when his running game became more of a threat later on (he finished with 755 yards, 7 TDs) his total output increased, and he led the win over Ohio State by throwing for 4 touchdowns. They lose Mendenhall but Juice is back, and since he noticeably improved during the course of his sophomore season he should be even better this year. He has favorite target Arrelious Benn along with several others back, but starter Kyle Hudson recently quit the team. With uncertain production at running back, more pressure will be put on Williams. The offensive line should be okay, with three of five full-time starters returning, but one of the losses is 1st team all-american Martin O'Donnell at left guard and possible starter Brandon Jordan evidently didn't make grades.
Defense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #33 Adj. Rush Def: #36 Adj. Pass Def: #95
The defensive line, which did a good job stopping the run and great job pressuring the pass (39 sacks), is strong again this year, returning starters Will Davis, David Lindquist and Doug Pilcher, while Derek Walker and others have starting experience. Recently, backup Sirod Williams was lost for the season due to injury, still leaving Illinois with seven of the top ten lineman. At linebacker, the Illini lose the team's two top tacklers from '07, J Leman and Antonio Steele. The secondary loses two of four full-time starters, Justin Harrison (#3 tackler) and Kevin Mitchell (5 INTs), but Vontae Davis (leading returning tackler) and Dere Hicks are back. In all the Illini lose five of their top seven tacklers, and once again the rushing defense should be a lot more solid than the passing D.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Mediocre punter Anthony Santella returns, but excellent kicker Jason Reda (16 of 18 field goals, 3 of 3 50-yarders) will be replaced by either true frosh Derek Dimke or junior Mike Cklamovski.
Recruiting: Say what you will about Ron Zook's coaching but the man can recruit. The last two classes have been solidly top 25. Many key performers last year (Benn, for one) were from the '07 class and redshirt freshmen are prominent in the projected 2-deep. Impacters from the '08 class may include JUCO Daniel Dufrene, probable starter at running back; Donsay Hardeman, who could start at safety; and Cordale Scott, who along with other recruits gives the receiver corps depth this year.
Illinois 2008 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | N | Missouri | 31% | L | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Eastern Illinois | 85% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Louisiana-Lafayette | 78% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | @ | *Penn State | 38% | L | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | @ | *Michigan | 43% | L | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Minnesota | 66% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | vs. | *Indiana | 60% | W | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | @ | *Wisconsin | 43% | L | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Iowa | 58% | W | |||
| 11/8 | Sat | N | Western Michigan | 64% | W | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | vs. | *Ohio State | 23% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | @ | *Northwestern | 56% | W | |||
Favored: 7-5 Projected: 6-6 |
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2008 Season Outlook The opening loss to Missouri didn't portend the season that the Illini had, but the close game (40-34) demonstrated that the Illini were not the doormat team of recent years. Neither did wins over Western Illinois or Syracuse prove much of anything. But with a win at Indiana—only the Illini's third Big Ten victory post-2002—and especially for beating Penn State and Wisconsin, the nation was put on notice: Illinois was not only good, but was going to compete for the Big Ten title.
The Iowa game was a setback, and one that furthered the notion that Zook is a recruiter but not a coach; Zook took several 3rd-down penalties instead of forcing 4th down, allowing Iowa to score on one occasion, and another penalty called back an Illinois touchdown. The 10-6 loss was followed by a loss to Michigan, and wins over Ball State and Minnesota, before the showdown with Ohio State. Juice Williams was fantastic in confusing the normally air-tight Ohio State defense leading to the upset in Columbus. Illinois finished 9-3 and went to the Rose Bowl when OSU was selected for the BCS championship game. USC throttled Illinois as most expected, 49-17, a down note but one that didn't spoil a dream season and dramatic turnaround from 2-10 to 9-4.
There's not much uncertainty in the schedule this year; the Illini are either strong favorites or big underdogs in each game, leading to a 7-5 finish. The games vs. Missouri, at Penn State, at Michigan, at Wisconsin, and at home vs. Ohio State are likely losses, while all of the wins are fairly certain. There is slightly more upside; Michigan or Wisconsin could be beat, so 8-4 might be the next mostly likely outcome, but matching last year's record would be tough.
| 44. Mississippi State Bulldogs |
2007 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: beat UCF 10-3 (Liberty Bowl) Poll finish: #33 AP #34 USA
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #57 Success: #27 Combined: #55
The Bulldogs are finally on the right track, but the SEC is always a tough place to be.
Offense (6 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #77 Adj. Rush Yards: #64 Adj. Pass Yards: #60
Even the key returnees on Mississippi State's offense have room for improvement.Anthony Dixon rushed for over 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns, but averaged just 3.7 per carry. Wesley Carroll threw for 1,392 yards and 9 TDs but completed only 52.5%. Jamayel Smith returns at wide receiver and the fullback position is solid, but overall the offense never clicked last season. Much of that can be attributed to having a true freshman at quarterback after Carroll replaced injured Mike Henig. Things should go smoother this year, especially if the offensive line improves; it returns just two starters after Michael Brown was kicked off the team by coach Sylvester Croom.
Defense (8 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #31 Adj. Rush Def: #44 Adj. Pass Def: #7
The defense came up big in Mississippi State's upset wins last year. The rushing defense was pretty standard most of the year, and loses two starters, but they shut down Kevin Smith in the bowl game against UCF, and if they can even approach that they'll be fine. At linebacker two starters, the team's leading tacklers from last season Jamar Chaney and Domonic Douglas, return along with backup Jamon Hughes, '07's #4 tackler, while reserve Athony Littlejohn quit the team, then returned in summer. Almost the entire corps is back at safety and corner, with six players who started 7 or more games last year returning. Led by free safety (and kick returner) Derek Pegues (5 INTs), the secondary should be awesome, and if the D-line still had pass rusher Titus Brown (8 sacks) the Bulldogs could have had the best pass defense in the country in '08.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kicker Adam Carlson (10 of 13 FGs) and punter Blake McAdams (39.3 ave) return after decent performances last season.
Recruiting: Croom is building a good program in Starkville out of top 40 recruiting classes. JUCOs Phillip Freeman and Tyson Lee should backup at right tackle and quarterback. Redshirt freshman Robert Elliot may be Dixon's backup at tailback.
Mississippi State 2008 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | @ | Louisiana Tech | 66% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | SE Louisiana | 86% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | *Auburn | 43% | L | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | Georgia Tech | 54% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | @ | *Louisiana State | 35% | L | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | vs. | *Vanderbilt | 60% | W | |||
| 10/18 | Sat | @ | *Tennessee | 38% | L | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | vs. | Middle Tennessee | 71% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | vs. | *Kentucky | 50% | L | |||
| 11/15 | Sat | @ | *Alabama | 38% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Arkansas | 52% | W | |||
| 11/28 | Fri | @ | *Mississippi | 51% | W | |||
Favored: 7-5 Projected: 6-6 |
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2008 Season Outlook It wasn't too long ago that Mississippi State was though of as fodder for the SEC. Even early last season, when LSU beat them 45-0, this perception stuck. But after a 19-14 win at Auburn, things began to change. Expected losses to South Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia put them at 4-3, an improved but still footnote team in the league. Then they upset Kentucky 31-14, opening some eyes, and Alabama 17-12 the next week, and people woke up: this was becoming a really strong program, one that the SEC would have to reckon with. Finishing 7-5 with a win over Ole Miss and winning a bowl game put the icing on the cake. Coach Croom started to get unanimous respect around the country.
This year the offense can be better if Carroll matures and Dixon fulfills his potential, which is scary. The defense should be awesome. In short, the team will be a lot better but whether they get more wins depends on the schedule. The Bulldogs should have a season similar to last year's, around 7-5. The tough-to-call games all happen at the end, so if they haven't come together as a team, a losing record might be in store with losses to Arkansas and at Mississippi. But if they've made advancements, they could win the Kentucky tossup and go 8-4. The odds say that a bowl game is the most likely outcome.
| 45. Texas Christian Horned Frogs |
2007 Results: Record: 8-5 Bowl: Beat Houston 20-13(OT) (Texas Bowl) Poll finish: n/a
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings: Strength: #48 Success: #58 Combined: #51
Last year's hopes went south fast, but the team recovered nicely. Will this be a better year still?
Offense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #74 Adj. Rush Yards: #46 Adj. Pass Yards: #55
The offense returns a fair amount of production along with a strong offensive line. Quarterback Andy Dalton was erratic as a freshman, with 10 TDs and 11 INTs, but should be improved this year. Starter Aaron Brown returns at running back, though he was injured last year and was the #2 rusher to Joseph Turner, but all the top backs remain on the roster. And although no starter returns among the receiving corps since Donald Massey was ruled ineligible, production was spread pretty evenly among the starters and backups, and tight end Shea Reagan returns. The veteran (three seniors and two juniors) offensive line returns four starters and should hold the offense together.
Defense (7 RS) '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #24 Adj. Rush Def: #9 Adj. Pass Def: #35
The defense should be just as good in 2008. Two full-time starters return to the line, plus a part-timer and a full starter from '06, so the strong rushing D should continue. One of two linebackers returns in the 4-2-5 scheme, but both Jason Phillips and Robert Henson are on the Butkus watchlist; with the backups they make up the best squad coach Gary Patterson said he's had in 11 years. And the secondary is stocked with two full-time starters plus Stephen Hodge, a half-time starter last year who had 57 tackles and 8 sacks. Though they lose three of their top four tacklers from '07, there is experience everywhere and the defense should be even better this season.
Kicking Game (0 RS): The Frogs need to replace two great kickers, placekicker Chris Manfredini and punter Derek Wash. Two freshmen—true Ross Evans and redshirt Anson Kelton—are set to take over.
Recruiting: TCU's recruiting never wows the nation. But they get a lot out of their players, that's for sure, often competing for the Mountain West title. This year the hot players are JUCOs Zack Roth and Jason Teague, who will add depth to the already staunch defense.
TCU 2008 schedule & forecast |
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| 8/30 | Sat | @ | *New Mexico | 57% | W | |||
| 9/6 | Sat | vs. | Stephen F. Austin | 95% | W | |||
| 9/13 | Sat | vs. | Stanford | 59% | W | |||
| 9/20 | Sat | @ | Southern Methodist | 69% | W | |||
| 9/27 | Sat | @ | Oklahoma | 25% | L | |||
| 10/4 | Sat | vs. | *San Diego State | 71% | W | |||
| 10/11 | Sat | @ | *Colorado State | 62% | W | |||
| 10/16 | Thu | vs. | *Brigham Young | 45% | L | |||
| 10/25 | Sat | vs. | *Wyoming | 65% | W | |||
| 11/1 | Sat | @ | *Nevada-Las Vegas | 61% | W | |||
| 11/6 | Thu | @ | *Utah | 38% | L | |||
| 11/22 | Sat | vs. | *Air Force | 68% | W | |||
Favored: 9-3 Projected: 7-5 |
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2008 Season Outlook The BCS dream ended quickly last year, with a 2nd half collapse against Texas and an overtime loss to Air Force, the team was 1-2. Wins over easy competition and close losses to Wyoming, Utah, and BYU kept the record even at 5-5. The Frogs won their last two to finish 7-5, and the bowl victory made them 8-5—good, but not close to what they wanted.
With a fairly accommodating schedule, this team that is marginally better than last year's on paper could do much better. They're underdogs by my account in only three games. Oklahoma notwithstanding, the pre-conference schedule is pretty good. In conference they of course face BYU and Utah, but other than that they should take care of business. The cumulative projection downgrades them to 7-5, but the wins are fairly solid here and 8-4 or 9-3 is what I would expect this team to achieve. A few lucky bounces this time instead of close losses and they could really have a good year.
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