2008 pre-season rankings: #36-40 - Colorado, UNC, Fresno leap

SportsRatings is ranking all 120 Division I-A teams, from #120 to #1, starting in early August until the season begins. These rankings are meant to reflect how good the teams might be in 2008 without taking schedule into account.

Projected odds of winning each scheduled game are given for each team, and two projected records are given: one based simply on which games a team is favored to win, and another cumulative projection that allows for the aggregate uncertainty in the predictions. The expectation for the team's season is somewhere within the range of the two values. (Schedule listings adapted from James Howell's site)

This installment covers teams from #36 to #40. To see the full list, click here.

36. Virginia Tech Hokies     (pre-season AP #17, USA-coaches #15)

2007 Results:    Record: 11-3    Bowl: lost to Kansas 24-21 (Orange Bowl)  Poll finish: #9 AP  #9 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #14    Success: #11    Combined: #13
The Hokies face losses on both offense and especially, defense. But the most interesting development is the redshirting of co-tandem QB Tyrod Taylor.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #42   Adj. Rush Yards: #61  Adj. Pass Yards: #91
Virginia Tech's off-season problems had a name, and it was Brandon. Brandon Ore, last year's leading rusher (9 TDs), was kicked off the team this spring; reserve guard Brandon Holland transferred to a Div II school; and super-fast junior wide receiver Brandon Dillard ruptured his achilles tendon this summer. The latter is just the tip of the iceberg for this team's receiver issues: the four top pass catchers are gone from last year; projected starter Zach Luckett has just been suspended indefinitely; and recruit Marcus Davis will be out with injuries as well. Finding someone to throw to will be a big problem for returning QB Sean Glennon. Glennon passed for 1800 yards and 12 TDs last season, while Tyrod Taylor added 900 yards and 5 TDs and ran for 400 yds and 6 TDs. Glennon won the starting job again, and Taylor has opted to redshirt rather than play the two-QB system that had worked so well late in the 2007 campaign. The offensive line, dismal at pass protection last year, should improve with four starters back, but the running game needs a running back. Right now Kenny Lewis and Jahre Cheeseman, both hurt during the spring, are out in front of a wide-open competition.
Defense (4 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #4   Adj. Rush Def: #22    Adj. Pass Def: #13
As much confusion as there is on offense, the defense is pretty straightforward: seven NFL-level players are lost but four of similar talent return. The front four loses three starters including Chris Ellis (8.5 sacks) but Orion Martin (6.5 sacks) is back. Two of three linebackers—#1 and #2 tacklers Xavier Abidi and Vince Hall—are gone but starter Cam Martin returns. And the secondary loses two starters, including All-American corner Brandon Flowers (5 interceptions), but Macho Harris (5 INT also) and Kam Chancellor will keep the unit strong. The defense's rankings in rushing and passing tend to not stack up to the scoring defense ranking in Virginia Tech's case due to excellent special teams, which makes both the offense and the defense look better.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Brent Bowden averaged 42.5 gross and 37 net; he's back but solid kicker Jed Dunlevy must be replaced. Head coach Frank Beamer always finds an answer on special teams, and replacement Matt Waldron or Dustin Keys will likely do a good job.
Recruiting: Recruiting has been good the last two years, both times just inside the top 25 nationally. The most interesting competition on the team is running back, where six players are in the mix. Recruiting at the position has been especially good lately, and three candidates are from the '07 and '08 classes. Tops from '07 is Darren Evans, who rushed for 61 touchdowns his senior year of high school. Josh Oglesby is another redshirt from that class, and currently may be ahead of Evans in the pecking order. And from '08, top recruit Ryan Williams still has a lot to learn but might eventually be the best of all of them.

Virginia Tech 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	East Carolina	57%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Furman	75%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	63%	W
9/20	Sat	@	*North Carolina	46%	L
9/27	Sat	@	Nebraska	50%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	Western Kentucky	76%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Boston College	50%	L
10/25	Sat	@	*Florida State	45%	L
11/6	Thu	vs.	*Maryland	50%	L
11/13	Thu	@	*Miami (Florida)	59%	W
11/22	Sat	vs.	*Duke	66%	W
11/29	Sat	vs.	*Virginia	62%	W
Favored: 8-4  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook It only took two games for 2007 to look like a disappointment, and the rest of the season to redeem it as a huge success. After beating East Carolina 17-7, the Hokies were considered suspect. In truth, the Pirates were a decent team last year. But after a 48-7 loss to LSU, there was legitimate fear that a long season might be ahead.

Instead, Tech rallied for five wins, mostly over easy teams. When the Hokies blew the Boston College game in the last two minutes, expectations were lowered again. And again the team rallied, going 4-0 against a tough schedule to make the ACC title game, which they won, beating B.C. in the rematch with a BCS bowl on the line. Tech played Kansas close but made a few costly mistakes and finished 11-3, the 7th season of double-digit wins in the last 9 years.

This season could be another winner, despite the lower ranking and talent loss. The Hokies rank 5th in the ACC by my numbers, but avoid playing Clemson and get Maryland at home. Road losses to UNC and FSU are the only certain blemishes, but three very close games (Nebraska, B.C., and Maryland) are tossups. Lose all three and they go 7-5, but I think that's a worst-case. The Hokies will win some combination of these close games, with luck matching last season's 10-2. If they win the Coastal Division they still won't win the ACC, so to get double-digits again in 2008, they might have to win their bowl game.

37. North Carolina Tar Heels

2007 Results:    Record: 4-8    Bowl: n/a   Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #65   Success: #80    Combined: #66
Is Butch Davis engineering another turnaround in the college football world?
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #80    Adj. Rush Yards: #97    Adj. Pass Yards: #62
North Carolina is one of those teams for whom the concept of "returning starters" is muddy. By strict accounting, 8 players in the lineup are returning starters. Looked at another way, just one half-time starting lineman is missing from the '07 1st string, so 10 1/2 returnees would be just as accurate. And how does one count Johnny White, last year's leading rusher, who moved to defense? I dock the offense 1/2 starter, since he's still on the team and several other returning backs started games, too. But let's look at who returns: QB T.J. Yates, recovered from shoulder surgery that slowed him last season leading to his 18 INT total (he still managed over 2,500 yards and 14 TDs). All receivers who had more than 100 yards (including Hakeem Nicks, who was just shy of 1,000), and all backs (save White) who rushed for more than 100 yards. The offensive line returns four full-time starters plus a half-time starter, and should be much stronger this year. In all, a vast improvement is expected, particularly since 9 2nd-stringers are back as well.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #48    Adj. Rush Def: #57    Adj. Pass Def: #71
The accounting on the defensive side is tough, too. Only four full-time starters return, but just three full-time starters are lost. Cobbling together the significant part-time starters into a representative amount yields the result of 7; your mileage may vary. The most complete area, by far, is the secondary, where essentially all four starters return: safeties Trimane Goddard and Deunta Williams and corners Kendrick Burney and Charles Brown, and they add former RB White to the mix, too. The linebacking corps has a lot of experience back, though they lose star Durell Mapp, who had twice as many tackles last year (132) as the #2 tackler, and possible starter Wesley Flagg was kicked off the team. Kentwan Balmer (#2 tackler) and Hilee Taylor (10.5 sacks) are lost from the line, but end E.J. Wilson returns. In all, 9 of the top 12 tacklers are back.
Kicking Game (1 RS): Punter Terrence Brown is back after netting an excellent 36 yards per punt. But kicker Conner Barth, who hit 16 of 18 field goals, has to be replaced. Redshirt freshman Jay Wooten is first in line with soph Trase Jones and Barth's brother Casey also in the running.
Recruiting: Butch Davis can recruit, no doubt about that. With the 2007 class nearly in the top ten and the '08 class just outside the top 25, UNC is building a reservoir of solid talent. New players to watch this year include Quinton Coples and JUCO Joseph Townsend, either of whom may start on defensive line.

UNC 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	McNeese State	68%	W
9/11	Thu	@	Rutgers	43%	L
9/20	Sat	vs.	*Virginia Tech	52%	W
9/27	Sat	@	*Miami (Florida)	59%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	Connecticut	48%	L
10/11	Sat	vs.	Notre Dame	64%	W
10/18	Sat	@	*Virginia	55%	W
10/25	Sat	vs.	*Boston College	57%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Georgia Tech	64%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Maryland	43%	L
11/22	Sat	vs.	*North Carolina State	71%	W
11/29	Sat	@	*Duke	59%	W
Favored: 9-3  Projected: 7-5

2008 Season Outlook The Tar Heels showed progress last year beyond the single extra win. The offense scored a lot more, the defense yielded a lot less, and six of the eight losses were by a touchdown or less.

This year the non-conference schedule is tough again, with two of the better Big East foes and an improved Notre Dame. Still, I see North Carolina having an excellent year, a dramatic improvement from 2008. Although only the #6 team in the ACC, their schedule is such that they could go 7-1 in league play which would probably put them in the title game. Overall, nine wins is reasonable, and those three losses aren't foregone conclusions. There are some close wins, too, hence the 7-5 cumulative projection; and some of these opponents (Virginia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame) I rate lower than most do so bowl eligibility even is not guaranteed if they lose a lot of close ones like last season. But they'll improve their record over 2007, even if it's just an additional game, and I think they'll do a whole lot better, turning their 4-8 record into 8-4.

38. Fresno State Bulldogs     (pre-season #25 USA-Coaches)

2007 Results:    Record: 9-4    Bowl: beat Georgia Tech 40-28 (Humanitarian) Poll finish: #30 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #63    Success: #48    Combined: #62
Fresno State is favored by many to win the WAC; can they make a BCS run?
Offense (10 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #56   Adj. Rush Yards: #25    Adj. Pass Yards: #73
The Bulldog offense favors the run, and three of their top four backs return, including ex-freshman wonder Ryan Matthews (866 yards, 14 TDs). Not that the pass is neglected; quarterback Tom Branstadder threw for 2,654 yards and 15 TDs against 5 INTs. The two top pass catchers, Marlon Moore and Mackey-nominated tight end Bear Pascoe, return as well as starters Seyi Ajirotutu and Jason Crawley among others. Behind a strong line that returns four starters and allowed only 18 sacks, the passing numbers should increase as well as the rushing total. Almost every reserve on offense returns (18 of 22 2nd-3rd string) so the unit is very deep as well.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #70    Adj. Rush Def: #98    Adj. Pass Def: #30
The rushing defense needs the most improvement, and though the front four loses two starters including Tyler Clutts (who aided the secondary by recording 7.5 sacks), returners include Jon Monga (6.5 sacks), Wilson Ramos, and several backups, plus they gain transfers from USC and Miami. The message is mixed at linebacker; all-time Bulldog great Marcus Riley, leading tackler last year, is gone but Ben Jacobs (#2 tackler as a freshman) returns. So does Quaadir Brown, though there was enough concern during the summer that he wouldn't that Chris Carter moved to LB from DE. The secondary is the sturdiest area; the group was good last season considering the pass-happy opposition they faced, and three starters return. They need to vastly improve their rock-bottom interception numbers, however. Again, a large majority of the '07 reserves returns to the defense.
Kicking Game (0 RS): Fresno State needs a new kicker and punter; last season's were average in quality. Redshirt freshman Kevin Goessling and soph Robert Malone are slated to take over, respectively.
Recruiting: Pat Hill's recruiting continues to improve. Though still just barely in the top half nationwide, for the WAC he is doing very well, and this year's class may be better than advertised. Despite the Bulldogs' remarkable depth, Hill plans to play a lot of true freshmen this year, including Ebahn Feathers, a fast, option-style QB. A number of other true freshmen will see time on the offensive line.

Fresno State 2008 schedule & forecast
9/1	Mon	@	Rutgers	43%	L
9/13	Sat	vs.	Wisconsin	52%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Toledo	65%	W
9/27	Sat	@	UCLA	51%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Hawaii	65%	W
10/11	Sat	vs.	*Idaho	78%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Utah State	69%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*Louisiana Tech	67%	W
11/7	Fri	vs.	*Nevada	68%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*New Mexico State	84%	W
11/21	Fri	@	*San Jose State	71%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Boise State	46%	L
Favored: 10-2   Projected: 8-4

2008 Season Outlook Last year saw a favorable turnaround from an anomalous losing season in '06. Though the Bulldogs dropped two games (Texas A&M and Oregon) to the revolving slate of BCS opponents they face annually, they won four straight to put them at 5-2, already better than '06. They tore through their WAC schedule, beating Big Twelve's Kansas State along the way, and losing only competitive games to the current powers, Boise State and Hawaii. Fresno's most prominent win came over ACC foe Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl, finally waking the football nation up to the fact that they were back.

This year's BCS opponents are Rutgers, Wisconsin, and UCLA, with the Badgers courteously coming to visit. I think they have a good shot to beat Wisconsin at home and UCLA on the road, though both will be close. In the WAC, I think they'll dominate like last year, beating Hawaii, but losing the road game to Boise State. This would make the Bulldogs 10-2 in 2008, their season bookended by losses in game one and game 12. Take away Wisconsin and UCLA and they still repeat this season's record. Give them a split on those games and call it 9-3, but they definitely have an opportunity this season to both get the nation's attention as well as win the WAC.

39. Boise State Broncos

2007 Results:    Record: 10-3   Bowl: L to E. Carolina 41-38 (Hawaii Bowl) Poll finish: #30 AP  #29 USA 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #29    Success: #42    Combined: #31
Every year Boise State has a chance to go undefeated. What are their odds this season?
Offense (5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #20   Adj. Rush Yards: #66    Adj. Pass Yards: #16
Taylor Tharp became the prototypical Broncos quarterback, throwing for massive yardage (3,340) with efficiency (68%) while scoring a lot (30 TDs) safely (11 INTs). The running game was less effective last year but with Tharp gone, Ian Johnson (1,041 yds 16 TDs) now a senior, and several other backs returning, the rushing totals should increase. The new QB, whether it's senior Bush Hamdan or redshirt frosh Kellen Moore [who was just named starter], has a positive in the receiving corps, which returns Jeremy Childs (82 rec, 1,045 yds, 9 TDs, suspended for first game) as well as Austin Pettis (6 TDs), FB/TE Richie Brockel (4 TDs) and many more. But the offensive line returns only one starter, right guard Andrew Woodruff, so the new QB might need a quick release.
Defense (7 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #57    Adj. Rush Def: #54    Adj. Pass Def: #25
Though two starters are gone, the defensive line should improve this year as Mike Williams (6 sacks) and Joe Bozikovich return, while end Ryan Winterswyk had the most tackles plus 5.5 sacks. The linebackers should improve with three senior starters back plus quality backups for '08 that are pushing the starters. Leading tackler Kyle Gingg and Tim Brady return along with 3-year starter Dallas Dobbs (#3 tackler) though soph Derrell Acrey was starting ahead of him in the spring, and now redshirt freshman Aaron Tevis is ahead of Acrey. The pass defense was their strong suit last year, and though the secondary must replace two full-time starters in Marty Tadman and Orlando Scandrick, players responsible for 75% of Boise's sacks last year return. The latter are the only missing players out of 2007's top ten tacklers.
Kicking Game (2 RS): Kyle Brotzman is a great kicker and an excellent punter as well. Hitting 16 of 18 field goals and all 66 (Boise scores a lot) extra points, and averaging 44.5 yards a punt while putting 9 of 21 attempts inside the 20. But he's not listed as the starting punter, instead that honor goes to Brad Elkin, who averaged a dismal 37.5. The team still netted 37.3 per punt...now, which punter do you figure was more responsible for that? Which one would you want for your team?
Recruiting: Though Boise State doesn't rank even in the top half of schools in recruiting, they manage to stock up on talent year after year out in Idaho. Two replacement starters on the line, as well as the quarterback, may be redshirt freshmen from the 2007 class, and Aaron Tevis beat out a returning starter at linebacker. They found several good linebackers this year, including one from Idaho, Byron Hout.

Boise State 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	vs.	Idaho State	93%	W
9/13	Sat	vs.	Bowling Green State	70%	W
9/20	Sat	@	Oregon	32%	L
10/1	Wed	vs.	*Louisiana Tech	74%	W
10/11	Sat	@	Southern Mississippi	60%	W
10/17	Fri	vs.	*Hawaii	65%	W
10/24	Fri	@	*San Jose State	71%	W
11/1	Sat	@	*New Mexico State	77%	W
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Utah State	76%	W
11/15	Sat	@	*Idaho	71%	W
11/22	Sat	@	*Nevada	61%	W
11/28	Fri	vs.	*Fresno State	53%	W
Favored: 11-1   Projected: 8-4

2008 Season Outlook Last year the always-sought-after undefeated season ended early with the loss to Washington. But after that Boise started reeling off the wins, including a crazy 69-67 quadruple overtime victory at Nevada. By the time of the showdown with Hawaii they were 10-1. Unfortunately they faced the Warriors in Honolulu; in Boise they would have smoked them, but not in Hawaii. They returned to the islands for the aptly-named Hawaii bowl, and maybe relaxed too much after listening to the oddsmakers that made them one of the biggest bowl favorites. The Broncos found their hands more than full with a charged-up East Carolina team that upset them 41-38.

Again faced with the typically weak WAC schedule, the Broncos will be one of the favorites for the title. Last year's champ Hawaii is down, and Boise meets them at home. This year's favorite (according to most) is Fresno State, who is much improved but not necessarily better than Boise; they play in Idaho as well, and I think the Broncos should win that one, too, and win the WAC title. As for BCS hopes, two things make this unlikely. One, the Broncos aren't quite as good as they were last year. Two, they play Oregon on the road, and I don't expect them to win that one. Still, an 11-1 season is a real possibility, and though the projection conservatively allows for a handful of upsets, the Fresno State game is the only other big challenge on the slate (though Southern Miss could be tough and Nevada's probably itching for the rematch). If the new QB doesn't come along and/or the offensive line never gels, then they could fall to 8-4 but I expect at least 9 or 10 wins this season...though not 12.

40. Colorado Buffaloes

2007 Results:    Record: 6-7    Bowl: Lost to Alabama 30-24 (Independence Bowl)  Poll finish: n/a 
2007 SportsRatings Power Ratings:   Strength: #52    Success: #47    Combined: #53
The Buffaloes were one of the most improved teams in 2007, and will be again in 2008; it just might not show up in their record.
Offense (6 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Offense: #44    Adj. Rush Yards: #51    Adj. Pass Yards: #42
Coach's son and starting quarterback Cody Hawkins improved as his freshman season went on, throwing for 400+ yards in three of the last five games and reaching 3,000 yards and 22 TDs. He threw 17 interceptions and completed just 57%, but those stats improved later as well. He returns along with last year's two top receivers plus tight end Riar Geer (playing again after being suspended during the summer). At running back the slot is left open by the departure of 1,000 yard rusher Hugh Charles, but they have the nation's #1 running back recruit in Darrell Scott who may start right away. The offensive line is a question, losing three starters but returning center Daniel Sanders and two others who started half-time.
Defense (7.5 RS)    '07 Adj. Scoring Defense: #54    Adj. Rush Def: #47    Adj. Pass Def: #37
George Hypolite anchors a defensive line with three starters and scads of depth. They suffer a huge loss at linebacker: All-American Jordon Dizon, who led the team in tackles with a whopping 173. But Jeff Smart (#2 tackler with 89) and Brad Jones return to soften the blow. The secondary loses two starters, star Terrence Wheatley (5 INT) and Benjamin Burney, who will redshirt due to injuries. Two full-time starters return plus Cha'pelle Brown, who started when the Buffs deployed the nickel D (hence the 1/2).
Kicking Game (1 RS): Average punter Matt DiLalio returns, but the Buffs need a kicker to replace Kevin Eberhart. Transfer Aric Goodman or redshirt frosh Jameson Davis will take over.
Recruiting: Hawkins' recruiting has been good (beyond recruiting his son) and got even better in 2008, with a top 25 class including #1 ranked running back Darrell Scott. Others from that class that should play right away are OL Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner and JUCO LB Shaun Mohler. Redshirt freshman debuting from the 2007 class include Matthew Bahr, Shawn Daniels and Blake Behrens, all vying for a spot on the O-line. But several others recent recruits won't play for another year: Drew Hudgins, Mike Iltis, and Jon Major are out with ACL injuries, while Markques Simas, a future star at wide receiver, and linebacker Sione Tau are academically ineligible. Another LB, Lynn Katoa, will redshirt due to legal troubles.

Colorado 2008 schedule & forecast
8/30	Sat	N	Colorado State	68%	W
9/6	Sat	vs.	Eastern Washington	69%	W
9/18	Thu	vs.	West Virginia	36%	L
9/27	Sat	vs.	Florida State	51%	W
10/4	Sat	vs.	*Texas	43%	L
10/11	Sat	@	*Kansas	27%	L
10/18	Sat	vs.	*Kansas State	56%	W
10/25	Sat	@	*Missouri	29%	L
11/1	Sat	@	*Texas A&M	48%	L
11/8	Sat	vs.	*Iowa State	71%	W
11/15	Sat	vs.	*Oklahoma State	53%	W
11/28	Fri	@	*Nebraska	49%	L
Favored: 6-6  Projected: 6-6

2008 Season Outlook 2007 was better than 2006 in almost every aspect. Six wins instead of two, and several season highlights: beating Colorado State in overtime, beating Oklahoma when the Sooners appeared invincible, trouncing Nebraska 65-51. There were some games to forget, too, like the 55-10 loss to Missouri and subsequent fall to Iowa State. The Independence Bowl was a disappointing end but the season showed good progress and great promise.

This season will feature a lot of close games that will determine the success of the 2008 campaign. Florida State at home, Texas A&M on the road, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska in Lincoln are the tossups. Assuming they split those, another 6-6 year is in store despite the team's improvement. If bad luck or injuries hit, 4-8 is a possibility, and also 8-4 if the team gels. But the cumulative projection stops dead on at 6.0 wins, and that looks like the most likely results. So what will the Buffs have to show for their improvement? They'd have to win their bowl game this year, and they'll still have the element of surprise for 2009, when they'll really be good.